Russia says bird flu may hit US in autumn, mutate

[PhilipShore]

ABC News/Reuters
Russia says bird flu may hit US in autumn, mutate

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=1732492

Mar 16, 2006 — MOSCOW (Reuters) - The deadly bird flu virus, which has hit Asia, Europe and Africa, may spread to the United States late this year and risks mutating dangerously there, Russia's top animal and plant health inspector said on Thursday.

"We think that H5N1 (strain of bird flu virus) will reach the United States in autumn," Sergei Dankvert told Reuters.

"This is very realistic. We may be almost certain this will happen after this strain is found in Great Britain, before autumn, as migrating birds will carry it to the United States from there."

Scientists fear that the virus may mutate into a form which could easily pass from one person to another, causing a pandemic, in which millions could die.

[noonwitch]

1. The virus could also mutate to a weaker form

All kinds of possibilities out there.

[oscar111]

4. THREE MONTHS OF FOOD, WATER

i advise all my friends here to stockpile these.

DU's should survive.

Canned food best. Get sugar free veggies. You dont want to need a dentist.

sugar free means no sugar added. Some veggies have natural sugars at low levels, like two percent, which cannot be avoided easily. Avoid ALL fruit, which is full of nat. sugar fructose.

meat has zero sugars BTW.

[Avalux]

5. The science says no -

It will probably be weaker than the version infecting birds, but worse than human influenza - this virus targets the deep tissue of the lungs and that's what makes it so deadly.

[SaveElmer]

11. But also makes it harder to spread H2H...

In order to spread easily, it will probably need to infect the upper respiratory system, the nose and throat...like most influenza's do.

[Avalux]

13. It will need to combine with human influenza -

when it does it will be airborne and infect the mucous membranes - the key here is deep lung tissue. Essentially, the lungs fill up with fluid, much different that human influenza.

[SaveElmer]

17. That is only one possible path...

It is also possible for it to mutate on its own, without that interaction. It is just as likely to take the characteristics of a normal flu as this deadly form. Right now it is an avian disease, genetically engineered by nature to infect birds. There is no way to know if this virus is even capable of making the genetic leap to become efficient at transmitting among humans easily, or to know how that disease will manifest itself. In fact, the odds are it won't mutate. There are throusands of animal diseases and many avian influenza's...and it is very rare for them to efficiently cross the species barrier.

However, if it did mutate, there is no way to know how it would manifest itself in humans, but in order to spread efficiently it will almost have to weaken.

[Avalux]

21. Antigenic drift takes longer and is possible -

however the scenario we are discussing, a rapid change, i.e. antigenic shift, requires an intermediate host enabling abrupt changes to the outer envelope's hemagglutinin protein or neuraminidase protein - interaction with human influenza.

There have been sporadic outbreaks of avian influenza in the past attributed to antigenic drift (H7N3, H5N2), but these have not had the capacity to develop into a worldwide pandemic.

H5N1 is very deadly in birds and yes, would weaken if becomes human - the mortality rate would still be substantially higher than human influenza, perhaps 50%.

[SaveElmer]

22. There is absolutely no way to know that...

A 50% mortality rate would be unprecedented in human history. Mutation is a random process...to speculate on a specific form, or specific genetic make up is impossible. Right now, among those we know to be infected, the mortality rate is 50%...that is with a purely avian virus occasionally infecting humans. Even the most out there predictions don't maintain it will keep that level of virulence. And there is evidence of sub-clinical infection already. Blood tests taken of sevral hundred people in Hong Kong in 1997 showed exposure with no symptoms. And there was recent statistical study in Vietnam which pointed in that direction as well.

[Avalux]

24. We haven't seen the virus yet that would cause a pandemic.

So any past tests/infections mean nothing. There isn't one person on this planet that would have any immunity to the human form of H5N1 - it hasn't been here yet. Your reasoning that speculation on a specific genetic makeup is impossible is simply not true.

It is consensus among those experts I know that the mortality rate will be considerably higher than human influenza because of the type of cell the virus will target in the human body.

[SaveElmer]

27. A couple of things...

In known huamn history, there is no record of a pandemic with a 50% mortality rate. The reason a pandemic is a pandemic is becasue there is little immunity to the virus in the human population. Second, we don't know what kind of immunity may be out there because no sera surveys have been done. But there are suggestions, as I said in the 1997 results, as well as statistical evidence that there is some immunity. SOme speculate that since we have seen Influenza viruses with the N1 portion of the subtype, we may have some protection.

Last, there is not a consensus among experts. You cannot have a consensus about a random process. Mutation is a random process. Not only do they not know if the virus will mutate, they have no idea of the characteristics it will show. The recent isolated mutation in Turkey was worrisome because it showed infection in the nose and throat instead of deep lung infection. So it is not known what cells it might attack. If it combines with a human influenza virus, we don't know which one, or what characteristics of that virus it will take. There are simply too many random possibilities to make any guess.

Genetically speaking, this virus is no more likely to mutate than any other. The fact that it is apparently so deadly inicomparison with others (although we really don't know this either), is what is causeing the concern. The most pessimistic estimate I have seen is that there is a 50-50 chance of mutation. Most are considerably less.

[Avalux]

29. There can be a consensus about what we already know

and expectations. Please support your assumptions with fact - we are not blindly making things up about how/when/if this virus will mutate. Do you have a background in microbiology/infectious diseases?

[SaveElmer]

30. Absolutely not...

But I have kept up very closely with this story, and the consensus I see is that there is no consensus...there is worry and there is speculation, and that speculation is all over the board. But even those most concerned with this admit they simply do not know what will happen.

[Avalux]

32. With all due respect then -

Infectious Diseases is my work and I am in the middle of this every day. Of course there is speculation about the unknown and opinions will differ; but there is a lot we do know, and there's a method to the madness when it comes to mutation with this type of virus.

I cannot say there will definitely be a pandemic and I cannot say for certain if it happens the mortality rate will be high. However, what I know about this virus and orthomyxoviruses in general is that the potential warrants great concern.

[SaveElmer]

36. I do not disagree..

I never said it didn't warrant concern...my point is that to say one thing or another will happen when the nature of the virus is not even well understood, and when there are so many variables in play, is speculation.

And though I am not an ifectious disease expert, it does interest me, and I read diligently all of the lastest information from WHO, and from other experts, so I am not completely in the dark as to what they are saying.

My main problem is not that we should not be concerned...it is the way this is being played up in the media. Only the most alarmist reports make headlines. You never hear views contrary to this alarmist line. When is the last time you saw a headline noting that Vietnam, once the most ravaged country, has not had a single outbreak in months. Same with Thailand.

The opinions of well respected researchers and virologists who point out problems with the inevitability the media seems to delight in, are almost never quoted. If you wnat to find their views, you really have to go hunting for them.

I recognize the seriousness of the situation. At the very least it will cause severe harm to the many poor that depend on poultry for their livelihood, so I am glad it has become a focus for action. But you can see the damage the alarmist tone has done in many of these countries, where poultry consumption has dropped of precipitously, where people are dropping off their pets at animal shelters, people are hoarding water...there is just no balance in the reporting.

And I have to say, if this virus fizzles out like Swine Flu did, the next time a real threat comes along, no one is going to pay attention.

[Avalux]

37. Agree completely about the media -

they provide little in the way of facts and go off half-cocked in a way that only serves to scare people, with the blessing of our incompetent government. Fear over this is just another way for them to manipulate.

As I've said before, those I know who have studied this virus for years, do expect a pandemic at some point; may be next year, may be several years from now. Of course this is in my corner of the world and there are others who have differing opinions.

All I know is this - when/if it happens, we will all be on our own and must be individually prepared without any expectations the government will be able to handle a pandemic.

[iamjoy]

31. Bubonic Plague

think it's mortality rate was at least 50%

[Bassic]

41. If untreated,

the bubonic plague has a mortality rate of 30% to 75% (at least according ot wiki).


But that's only if untreated.

[donkeyotay]

2. Why would the virus be more likely to mutate here, in the fall?

Is it going to mutate into a vote-eating virus?

[soleft]

16. to create fear and anxiety - a lovely code of red before midterms

[wordpix2]

33. you are onto it---read this article about Baker Botts & Russian investment

snip:

So how did Norilsk Nickel win such easy approval for its acquisition of Stillwater, taking eight months for a process that critics say should have lasted longer? A look behind the scenes reveals that influential people, with clout at the White House, had much to gain by pushing it forward.

Norilsk Nickel hired Baker Botts, the lobbying firm headed by longtime Bush family political adviser James Baker III. Baker Botts assigned a special counsel named Diana Dietrich, a former Federal Trade Commission litigator, to plead Norilsk Nickel's case before the agency where she used to work. The Russian company also put forward the group it planned to add to Stillwater's board of directors after the takeover, and four of its five nominees are neither Russians nor mining executives, but American power players. They include Craig Fuller, the former chief of staff to then Vice President George H.W. Bush; Steven Lucas, a partner at Nielsen-Merksamer, a California firm specializing in lobbying and electoral law; former Senator Donald Riegle (D-Mich.), who served as chairman of the Senate Banking Committee; and Todd Schafer, who works in Moscow for the lobbying firm Hogan & Hartson and has assisted Potanin in battling challenges to his control of Uneximbank. Stillwater vice president John Stark says that his company proposed some of these nominees to Norilsk Nickel, while others were suggested by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

snip:

The deal has ramifications beyond hydrogen fuel cells. "The business side of this goes back to Russians wanting a way to get their capital into an American asset," says Tim Wood, a correspondent for the trade publication Mineweb. "It's like putting your money into a washing machine -- it spins around, comes up in a different place."

http://www.motherjones.com/news/outfront/2004/05/04_406.html

[smirkymonkey]

40. And since the Republicans handled the last disaster so beautifully,

this would be sure to get them extra votes. :sarcasm: (Sarcasm not directed at you, but toward the Republican mindset that wishes to capitalize on human suffering)

[JDPriestly]

3. What I don't understand is why they think it will mutate into ONE

form of a human virus. Why couldn't a virus mutate into more than one form of a human virus? Is there something I don't understand?

[Avalux]

8. Not possible, here's why:

Avian influenza is a type A influenza, the same kind as our human influenza. In order for 'bird' flu to become easily transmitted from human to human, it has to combine with human influenza to form a new version of itself, and that combination is very specific. There's really on one outcome.

[SaveElmer]

14. That is not necessarily true...

That is one scenario...it can also mutate to an easily spread form without that interaction. In either case there is no way to know what it's characteristics will be.

[Avalux]

15. Please explain - without that interaction?

We are discussing the version of H5N1 that will become an airborne human virus - there's really only one outcome when/if that happens. What is H2H?

[SaveElmer]

18. H2H is Human to Human...

In order to become pandemic, it has to mutate into a form that is easily spread human to human...which means it has to change itself at the genetic level to accomplish this. One path is, as you say to combine with an influenza virus that currently passes among humans, taking on thos genetic characteristics. Another is that it eventually mutates on its own. In either case, it has to make a pretty significant genetic shift to pass easily among the human population. The fact that it has been around for 8 years, with hundreds of thousands, if not millions of opportunities to make this shift, is an argumant some put forward, that this virus is simply not capable of making that shift.

Mutation has been seen in this virus, but only in the way it adapts to birds. It has become more deadly in poultry, and somewhat less deadly in wild birds. There has been no sustained or significant mutation that would change the way it infcts humans (through initimate contact with dead or dying birds, or diseased feces).

[SaveElmer]

9. You are right...

The one most efficient at replicating and spreading will generally win out...good old Natural Selection. Usually, a virus becomes less deadly in order not to kill its hosts before it has had a chance to spread. However, the genetic shift to efficiently cross the species barrier is fairly formidible, and there is no way to know if this virus is even capable of it. The fact is, it has had 8 years, and hundreds of thousands of opportunities to mutate to a H2H form, and it hasn't so far. It has mutated with respect to how it infects birds...which makes sense because right now...this is a disease of birds, and is genetically suited to infect birds.

[SaveElmer]

6. Random speculation...

The virus is less likerly to mutate here...not more. The chances that people and dead or dying poultry will interact here is less likely than just about anywhere. And so far there have been no confirmed cases, anywhere in the world, of a human becoming infected by contact with wild birds.

I'm afraid this is another example of the media finding the most alarmist speculation it can find, and creating a headline out of it. This russian doctor has no more insight into when (or IF) this virus will mutate, than any other.

[oscar111]

10. AFRICA is the troouble area

there is where one article said the leap to a human form is most likely, and it is now entering that continent.

Globalization of corporatism, is the real cause of africa's trouble now. Glo. caused poverty there to worsen, so now AIDS is rampant, and AIDS folks are the arena where birdflu can take root easily.

[SaveElmer]

23. That may be true...but

I find it very interesting that in the month and a half since the spread to Africa was confirmed, there still has been no reported human infection. Now I understand the nature of the area would lead you to believe that there have been human infections and they simply have gone unreported, but in that amount of time, I would have expected a couple at least. And a survey done immedietely after the initial outbreak in Nigeria, including blood tests, found no human infection.

[oscar111]

25. Blood labs not reliable?

here, they are not regulated in some states, so no reliability can be put in them

[SaveElmer]

28. The samples in Africa...

Were sent to the British labs that have been doing all of the testing for WHO. They are reliable

[Janice325]

7. Gosh

When are the elections held? November?
Hmmmm. Just what we need, a pandemic that could kill millions.

[oscar111]

12. Kill every bird?

feasible, yes.
good?

comments invited

[SaveElmer]

19. No...not possible...

And wild birds are not the problem. It is the interaction between poultry and humans. COntrol it in poultry, and you drastically minimiz the opportunity for it to mutate. Vietnam and Thailand, and to some extent Turkey have been successful in this effort. A combination of culling and poultry vaccination seems to be the ticket.

[oscar111]

26. Pigs, replacing fowl in backyards a good program?

let them raise pigs instead.

[bullimiami]

20. really what the fuck is with the mutation scare tactic.

aids could mutate to an airborne virus.
tonail fungus could mutate to a flesh eater.
HSN1 could mutate into a less serious strain just as easily as it could cross into humans and become airborne.

this has to be primed by the republican scare machine, there is no other reason for it.

[wordpix2]

35. see my post #33---starts to make some sense--it's all about *business

[raccoon]

39. Amen/Ramen! all sorts of things COULD happen.

We could watch TV so much we turn into zombies...

[obnoxiousdrunk]

42. It will mutate

only if the AlCIAda video and audio tapes are not ready by October.

[Minnesota Libra]

34. We've discussed terror or flu at election time-how convenient nt

[wordpix2]

38. Mike Johanns, Sec. of Agriculture

He is Bush's guy, "heavily recruited" by WH, and pro-big business, not small farmer.

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Mike_Johanns

snip: The Washington Post described Johanns as perhaps "the ideal GOP candidate to head the Department of Agriculture," because he "is risk-averse, is committed to Christianity, supports social programs like the Democrat he once was, and, by necessity, knows his beef and corn as leader of one of the nation's largest agricultural states." The paper also noted Johanns' considerable agriculture experience: <5> (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A53510-2004Dec9.html)

snip: Some "Democratic critics in Nebraska" describe Johanns as "too much of a go-along, get-along guy, reluctant to take stands or to make waves on controversial issues and consequently reluctant to show leadership." But one "defining moment for him," according to Nebraska Farmers Union president John K. Hansen was Johanns' strong support of a measure that would have allowed him to appoint a panel to review a 22-year-old, popular, citizen initiative that "prohibits owners of agribusinesses who are not related by family ties to join forces." Hansen said, "It showed he was on the side of big business, not the small farmer." <11> (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A53510-2004Dec9.html)

[FlaGranny]

43. Not that it means a thing,

and it could just be VERY local, but I have noticed a decided decrease in the wild bird population in my area. I first realized it when my loquat tree, which has ripe fruit now, has a lot less fruit damage from birds. Every morning and evening, year round, the electric lines on my street used to be full of hundreds of birds, which just aren't showing up. My first thought though, was not avian flu, but West Nile virus. It could be neither and just a coincidence. I haven't seen any dead birds. We still have some doves and some green parrots around, but nowhere near the amount of blackbirds and crows.

[oscar111]

44. I also have heard such reports

some months ago.