STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 17 March

[ozymandius]

Friday March 17, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 1039 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1912 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1612 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1573
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 16, 2006

Dow... 11,253.24 +43.47 (+0.39%)
Nasdaq... 2,299.56 -12.28 (-0.53%)
S&P 500... 1,305.33 +2.31 (+0.18%)
30-Year Bond 4.69% -0.06 (-1.24%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.65% -0.09 ( -1.80%)
Gold future... 555.40 +1.00 (+0.18%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF KEY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

This week’s Wrap Up presents a long and intermediate term look at important financial institutions. For a couple of these institutions, business is good; in fact it has not been as good since the top of the Nasdaq bubble. Others are in a trading range.

-cut past charts- These charts are worth a look and Mr. Goldberg's comments are worth reading. It is very curious that Goldman Sachs is propsering while Citibank is flat. There is little forward movement on consumer-related stocks

Today’s Market

Below is a table that outlines bullish percents of various important sectors and indices at the present time. The following is from the www.stockcharts.com website:

“The Bullish Percent Index (BPI) is a popular market breadth indicator that is calculated by dividing the number of stocks in a given group (an exchange, an industry, etc.) that are currently trading with Point and Figure buy signals, by the total number of stocks in that group. Bullish Percent levels that are above 70% are considered overbought, whereas levels below 30% are considered oversold. Strong buy signals occur when the Bullish Percent Index falls below 30% and then reverses up by at least 6%. Conversely, promising sell signals occur when it goes above 70%, and then reverses down by at least 6%.”

-cut-

Of all the sectors in the table, they all are indicating a bearish divergence in that the indices are making higher highs, yet the percent of “participants” boosting the index to new highs are much lower than what occurred in the previous peak. Notable divergences consist of the S&P energy sector where only 41% of the stocks are bullish, down from a previous peak of 96 percent. Also conspicuous is the Nasdaq 100 where only 58 percent of the stocks are bullish while the index is making multi-year highs. Something smells pretty bad here, and yet it is too early to jump the gun with bearish positions in my view. There are parallels between today’s market and the one of 1999, where there was an extended period of time with market internals crumbling while the indices advanced.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Feb
Briefing Forecast 81.4%
Market Expects 81.4%
Prior 80.9%

9:15 AM Industrial Production Feb
Briefing Forecast 0.7%
Market Expects 0.8%
Prior -0.2%

9:50 AM Mich Sentiment-Prel. Mar
Briefing Forecast 89.0
Market Expects 88.0
Prior 86.7

[UpInArms]

17. 9:15 Reports in:

9:15 AM ET 3/17/06 U.S. FEB. HIGH-TECH OUTPUT RISES 2.3%

9:15 AM ET 3/17/06 U.S. JAN. CAPACITY UTILIZATION REVISED 80.8% VS. 80.9%

9:15 AM ET 3/17/06 U.S. JAN. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION REVISED -0.3% VS. -0.2%

9:15 AM ET 3/17/06 U.S. FEB. AUTO OUTPUT FALLS 0.8%

9:15 AM ET 3/17/06 U.S. FEB. UTILITY OUTPUT INCREASES 7.9%

9:15 AM ET 3/17/06 U.S. FEB. MANUFACTURING OUTPUT UNCHANGED

9:15 AM ET 3/17/06 U.S. FEB. CAPACITY UTILIZATION 81.2% VS. 81.4% EXPECTED

9:15 AM ET 3/17/06 U.S. FEB. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UP 0.7% VS. 0.8% EXPECTED

I guess that the GM OKC plant closing had "no impact" :eyes:

[UpInArms]

18. U.S. Feb. industrial production rises 0.7% on cool temps

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BED416A36%2D85F3%2D4EF2%2D843F%2D9AF5306565F3%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. industrial output increased 0.7% in February as cooler weather boosted utility production, the Federal Reserve said Friday. With auto production falling 0.8%, manufacturing output was flat, the slowest growth since September. High-tech output rose 2.3%. Utility output jumped 7.9%. Capacity utilization in industry - a key gauge of supply-side inflationary pressures - rose to 81.2%, matching the high for this expansion. Economists polled by MarketWatch were expecting output to rise 0.8% after a revised 0.3% decline in January. Capacity utilization was expected to rise to 81.4% from 80.8%.

[UpInArms]

20. UMich March Consumer Sentiment at 86.7 - unchanged from February

9:53 AM ET 3/17/06 UMICH CURRENT CONDITIONS 106.2 VS. 105.6

9:47 AM ET 3/17/06 U.S. MARCH UMICH CONSUMER SENTIMENT SAME AS FEB.

9:47 AM ET 3/17/06 U.S. MARCH UMICH SENTIMENT BELOW CONSENSUS 87.8

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B38BC7707%2D1C90%2D42D5%2DB91A%2DBEB6BA36C1BE%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Consumer sentiment held steady in March, according to researchers at the University of Michigan on Friday. The consumer sentiment held at 86.7 in March. The number was below the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists who had expected sentiment to improve to 87.8.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil steady after sharp gains this week

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices held above $63 on Friday, bringing the week's gains to nearly 6 percent after the previous day's leap on fears of tight summer gasoline supplies.

-cut-

"Crude prices are holding on despite those bearish crude inventories," said David Thurtell, commodities strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "The focus has definitely remained on new environmental standards and falling fuel stocks."

Prices fell midweek after a U.S. government report revealed a fifth weekly rise in crude stocks, now at seven-year highs as a warm winter allowed the world's biggest energy consumer to rebuild supplies after 2005's devastating hurricane season.

But traders have turned their attention to falling stockpiles of refined products, notably gasoline, that still stand at robust levels but are being drained by an intensive refinery maintenance program focused on new, cleaner fuel specifications.

more...

[54anickel]

34. Analysts Skeptical of Claims of a Large Mexican Oil Find

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/17/business/worldbusiness/17pemex.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

MEXICO CITY, March 16 — Analysts say they are skeptical of news this week from the Mexican state oil monopoly that exploratory drilling in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico shows signs of a giant new oil field.

Petróleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, says that early indications suggest that the field could be as large as 10 billion barrels. But analysts said that it was premature to make an estimate based on preliminary drilling.

snip>

On Saturday, Mexico will celebrate the 68th anniversary of the day it took over its oil industry from foreign companies. As Mexico has opened the rest of its economy, energy remains untouched.

Analysts suggested that President Vicente Fox may have rushed announcing the find in a new attempt to prod Congress into opening up the industry.

"This is part of an overall lobbying effort from the administration," said Jaime Brito, an analyst at PFC Energy in Washington and a former Pemex executive.

more...

[ozymandius]

4. Rates on 30-Year Mortgages Drop This Week

WASHINGTON - Rates on 30-year mortgages, which had jumped to the highest level in 2 1/2 years, edged down slightly this week.

Mortgage giant Freddie Mac reported Thursday that rates on 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.34 percent this week, the second highest level since mid-November.

-cut-

"Market indicators this week seemed to point to less of a threat of inflation and that allowed rates to drift lower," said Frank Nothaft, chief economist at Freddie Mac.

more...

[ozymandius]

5. GM revises '05 loss $2 billion higher

The automaker says actual losses were $10.6 billion; company also says it will delay its annual report due to an accounting error.

DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Corp. on Thursday revised its loss for 2005 to $10.6 billion, $2 billion more than initially reported, due to charges associated with its restructuring, the bankruptcy of its former subsidiary Delphi Corp. and its finance arm GMAC.

The company said in a statement that on a per-share basis its 2005 loss had been $18.69 when fully accounting for those charges, up from a previously reported per-share loss of $15.13.

a little bit more...

[rfranklin]

6. A billion here, a billion there...what kind of accountants do they have?

My accountant gets agitated if I misplace a couple of hundred. I guess it's just what you're used to.

[UpInArms]

12. Automaker Will Restate Results For '00 to '04

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/03/16/AR2006031601752.html?nav=rss_business

excerpt:

In a statement, GM also said it will delay filing its 2005 annual report but expects to do so within two weeks. With the annual report, GM said, it will issue restated earnings for financial results for fiscal 2000 through 2004 to correct accounting errors it disclosed in November.

GM said it expects to increase the charge for its exposure relating to Delphi's Chapter 11 filing to $3.6 billion from the previous estimate of $2.3 billion.

Additionally, GM will boost its North American restructuring charge to $1.7 billion from the previously reported $1.3 billion "to reflect an increase in the provision for employee costs at facilities where GM plans to cease production," the company said.

The lower charge included cash payments that would be made to affected employees during the current labor agreement, while the revised charge considers GM's estimate of costs it expects to pay after the contract expires in September 2007.

...more...

[UpInArms]

13. GM, GMAC bonds fall on wider loss, restatement

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-03-17T132116Z_01_N174734_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-GM-BONDS-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, March 17 (Reuters) - Bonds of General Motors Corp. (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and its finance arm fell on Friday after the automaker said its 2005 loss was $2 billion deeper than previously reported.

GM's benchmark 8.375 percent bonds due in 2033 fell to 73.2 cents on the dollar, down from 75.3 cents late on Thursday, MarketAxess reported. General Motors Acceptance Corp.'s 8 percent bonds due in 2031 fell to 93 cents on the dollar from 95.4 cents on Thursday, according to MarketAxess.

GM on Thursday revised its massive loss for 2005 to $10.6 billion and said it would delay filing its annual report with securities regulators because it had mistakenly accounted for cash flows from GMAC mortgage subsidiary Residential Capital.

[UpInArms]

7. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

Last trade 89.05 Change -0.07 (-0.08%)

Bears Pound Dollar On Data

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx-reports/daily-fundamentals/7383-bears-pound-dollar-on.html

US Dollar

The volume of data on the day couldn’t help the pessimism surrounding the greenback as traders took advantage of the session to further the bearish momentum seen yesterday. Sentiment is seemingly shifting to a focus on the teetering U.S. infrastructure, current account deficit and lack of funding through foreign investors, as it becomes increasingly suggestive of a near term end to the monetary tightening bias. Lending to the downside for the dollar was today’s consumer prices report. Although rising in the headline by 0.1 percent, the core figure climbed only incrementally by 0.1 percent on a 0.2 percent consensus. This brought figures relatively inline with estimated figures, and even helped to drop the annualized figure to a 3.6 percent print from the previous 4 percent seen in January. With a higher initial jobless claims figure and the week’s disappointing trade figures, it looks very possible that central bankers will make the upcoming March decision one of their last. Pointing towards a larger emphasis on economic data, Chairman Ben Bernanke doesn’t have a lot to pull from. Of note are the most recent trade figures that openly confirm the inability to fund the current deficit as it approaches 7 percent of gross domestic product. With a shortfall similar to what was witnessed in the New Zealand economy in previous months, it isn’t deniable that the dollar looks to have lots of bearish sentiment to contend with in the near term.

...more...

[UpInArms]

15. Dollar's rout continues, fresh seven-week euro low

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BEC7F7A17%2D1DB9%2D4A1B%2D9D9E%2D4FA6006B28AE%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar fell for a sixth straight session against the euro Friday, hitting a fresh seven-week low versus Europe's common currency, amid falling U.S. interest rate expectations. Later today, investors will review readings on U.S. consumer sentiment, industrial production and capacity utilization. The dollar weakened sharply Thursday after a tame core consumer price inflation report raised serious questions about how far the U.S. central bank's tightening path will extend. In early trade, the euro rose 0.1% to $1.2187. The dollar also hit a two-week low against the yen; the dollar was fetching 115.92 yen, down 0.9%.

Last trade 88.90 Change -0.22 (-0.25%)

Settle Time 15:00 Open 89.11

Previous Close 89.12 High 89.25

Low 88.88 2006-03-17 08:50:39, 30 min delay

[54anickel]

27. Hey UIA, isn't this the time of year where BOJ tends to prop the buck

for their fiscal year end? I noticed the buck's not dropping as much against the yen - do you think BOJ is propping again?

[UpInArms]

35. You're right, 54anickel - this is that time of year

There have certainly been a lot of conflicting reports regarding continued intervention and continuing the easy-money policies -

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=22&art_id=14388&sid=7093315&con_type=1

<snipping to the bottom line>

Analysts say Japan is highly unlikely to intervene in currency markets unless the dollar plunges beyond 100 yen, which would be a 15 percent fall.

"It can get very tiring in times of intervention, because it's always in the back of your mind that you might be taking on the authorities," said Mitsuru Sahara, a senior forex trader at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubushi UFJ. "In this business, size matters."

[54anickel]

40. So they are saying they haven't done any intervening in over 2 years?

I find that rather hard to believe. :shrug:

[UpInArms]

37. deleted the dreaded double post

:blush:

[54anickel]

36. A Tale of Two Farmers

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schiff/schiff031706.html

In light of the mind-blowing lengths to which Wall Street has gone to minimize the importance of the enormous deficits posted in the fourth quarter current account and in January's monthly trade figures, I thought a simple analogy would be helpful in putting this situation into its proper perspective.

It is particularly timely in view of last week's jobs report, which reveled that another 240,000 Americans had found employment providing services and building houses. The growth in these sectors assures that future trade and current account deficits will be even larger, as these newly employed workers exchange the IOUs they earn for the real goods the rest of the world produces. However, recent government action blocking a Dubai company from purchasing U.S. ports, following similar actions which prevented a Chinese company from acquiring Unocal Corp. last year, may result in the world's producers finally reassessing the "wisdom" of exchanging real merchandise for American IOUs that can neither be redeemed for consumer goods nor assets.

A Tale of Two Farmers

Farmer Chang only grows oranges. Farmer Jones only grows apples. Each grows only the fruit that he produces most efficiently, trading the surplus for the fruit grown by the other. Both farmers benefit from comparative advantage and free trade. The sole reason that Farmer Chang "exports" oranges is to "import" apples, and vise-versa.

Suppose that one year a frost wipes out farmer Jones' apple crop. Not having any fruit to trade, but hungry nevertheless, he proposes to trade apple IOUs for farmer Chang's oranges. Since Farmer Chang cannot eat all of the oranges he grew anyway, and since farmer Jones' IOUs will pay 10% interest (in extra apples of course) he agrees.

more...

[54anickel]

39. Congressman Ron Paul Talks About Gold, Oil & the Economy

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/taylor/taylor031706.html

snip>

But the biggest flaw in the way people think today of inflation is that they buy into the argument that inflation is rising prices alone, rather than looking at what the Fed is doing. When the Fed creates new money, they undermine the value of the money, and that is inflation. Sometimes that causes stock prices to go up like the NASDAQ bubble that emerged from inflation. Or sometimes it might be a housing bubble, and other times it may flow into bonds and sometimes into commodities, and other times into the CPI.

Sometimes price increases are hidden from us by government statistics, or the prices are held in check to a degree by increases in productivity. But there is still a great deal of harm done because artificially low interest rates cause businesspeople and savers to do things differently than if there was a market economy and a normal savings rate. Under normal market conditions, you get more favorable economic balance. When interest rates are distorted, that contributes to malinvestment and over investment and excessive debt accumulation that ends up in economic downturns that very often can be quite severe.

TAYLOR: I believe the economic downturns, at least under Greenspan's tenure at the Fed, were sort of delayed or curtailed by even more promiscuous money creation. Would you agree with that?

CONGRESSMAN PAUL: Yes. He gets the credit for keeping it together. He was able to bounce back and forth. He created one bubble and we lived off that a bit, and it collapses and then he creates a new bubble. We had a couple of recessions that were not overly severe, and the establishment now gives him a lot of credit. History will show that he has created a great deal of harm to us and to our currency. But right now it seems as though we have lucked out in many ways because he, in technical fashion, was able to prolong the inflationary boom. But a time will come when that correction will have to come, and I happen to believe the correction will be more severe because he was able to keep it together. But it is rather ironic that the marketplace today - the establishment - rewards a person like Greenspan. His book deal is running around $9 million. It will take a little time and study and historic analysis to put the blame where it is deserved.

snip>

CONGRESSMAN PAUL: FANNIE MAE and FREDDIE MAC have a line of credit from the Treasury, and they would use it if they had to. And I'm sure other mortgage companies would qualify. Congress would do whatever they feel they have to do. If there were a "housing hurricane," it would be just like a real hurricane. You spend whatever people demand you spend and worry about it later.

But the other way I think they are going to prop up mortgages is by having foreign central banks soak up our dollars. This is how they are keeping this bubble going now. I believe the central banks have many agreements. They own twice as much debt as the Fed does, so they are there to monetize our debt.

TAYLOR: So it's a global effort to keep the housing market and the U.S. economy afloat?

CONGRESSMAN PAUL: Yes. I think they are working together. They think they are all benefiting from buying Treasuries. And also, on Y2-K, the Fed wanted to make sure there was no shortage of currency, so they incurred enough debt that they could print currency against by buying a lot of FANNIE MAE and FREDDIE MAC. They held those for a while. They had that line on the Fed chart each week that said they didn't own any. I think that is a signal to the foreigners that if they (FANNIE MAE and FREDDIE MAC mortgages) ever get into trouble, the Fed will be very willing to participate in propping them up. That could be done without any legislation at all. If the market got real soft, the Fed could just buy that. I think if you ever start seeing the Fed start to accumulate those non-governmental securities (like FANNIE MAE and FREDDIE MAC), I think that means they are getting worried about it (housing debt market).

more...

[UpInArms]

8. SnowJob says still a thrill to be U.S. Treasury chief - war spending #1

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-03-16T214918Z_01_N16350868_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-SNOW.XML

WASHINGTON, March 16 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow on Thursday turned aside questions whether he might consider leaving the Bush administration, telling a Fox News interviewer it was "a great thrill to be here."

Snow, who has served more than three years as Treasury chief and who is frequently mentioned when talk of cabinet changes arises, was asked whether he was tired of the job.

"It's a great thrill to be here, to be doing this," Snow replied. "It's a chance to do things. There's adversity in everything but it's a real satisfaction to represent this president at this time in history."

Snow was supposed to leave on Thursday for a trip to Africa but canceled it to stay in Washington to work on securing an increase in the debt limit. He said winning the war on terror was vital no matter what it cost.

"We're going to spend what it takes to win the war on terror," he said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

9. U.S. says it must retain option of preemption - Hadley

http://english.vietnamnet.vn/international/2006/03/551327/

The United States must retain the option of launching preemptive military strikes in the face of all kinds of risks and uncertainties in the aftermath of the Sept.11, 2001 terror attacks, a senior U.S. official said on Thursday.

"The doctrine of preemption which we have talked about reflects simply the fact that we can not stand by while threats accumulate and grow," Stephen Hadley, President George W. Bush's national security adviser, said at a briefing about the newly-released U.S. National Security Strategy.

"As a matter of traditional self-defense in the face of these kinds of risks and uncertainties, America must retain the option to act before an attack occurs," he said.

Nonetheless, Hadley admitted that to launch preemptive strikes, the United States will have to need "better intelligence" and "effective use of military force in a smart, measured way."

"It does not mean it is something you would do in every circumstance," he said.

Hadley claimed that the Iraq war was not an exhibit of the preemptive strategy.

...more...

Oh.Dear.God.

The nuts are on the loose - the choir is warming up - the lies are getting bigger and thicker and more dangerous.

[54anickel]

22. I caught that idiot on the TV last night. "Iraq is not an example of the

preemptive strategy" I about tossed the remote through the screen again. My ears took that to say, "Sure, Iraq is a cluster-f*ck, but it's not what we mean by preemptive. So it doesn't count. We get a do-over."


Hadley claimed that the Iraq war was not an exhibit of the preemptive strategy.

The United States had 12 years of diplomacy and the United Nations passed some 16 resolutions on the weapons of mass destruction of the Saddam Hussein regime. However, Saddam made the wrong choice and "left the international community and the United States with few options," he said.

The United States launched the Iraq war on grounds that the Saddam Hussein regime had weapons of mass destruction and ties with the al-Qaida network. Yet none was proved correct after the war ended.

Bastard, those 12 years, 16 resolutions and sanctions were working. The suffering and impoverishment of the Iraqi's was, unfortunately, proof of that. Saddam was never a threat to our national security outside of our gluttony for oil. Your freakin' preemptive war strategy completely changed what this nation was believed to be. Our shores were not threatened by Saddam, though or economic interests were. You've openly placed war on the table as an option to not only protect our shores from physical attack but also as a defense for our economic interests. THAT has set a new precedent and made the world an extremely dangerous place.

Not that we haven't done some pretty shady things in the past to protect our economic interests, but Bushco has now put war openly on the table - that now has the world in a race for military build-up. The Cold War and MAD is gonna look like the Garden of Eden compared to what these assholes have unleashed.

[54anickel]

42. Markets oblivious to geopolitical risks

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/HC15Dj01.html

Washington's military action and democratization efforts in the Middle East are creating unprecedented instability in the most important oil-producing region in the world - instability that will likely increase during 2006.

Growing instability in the Middle East has made global geopolitical risk extreme. Investors worldwide have yet to link extreme global geopolitical risk with high global economic growth risk, as evidenced by the very modest impact these rapidly rising risks have had on the world's financial markets. Risk perception may finally meet actual risk this year, sending interest rates soaring and stock markets plummeting around the world.

What's geopolitical risk?
Geopolitical risk can be defined as the risk of one country's foreign policy unduly influencing or upsetting domestic political and social stability in another country or region. In isolation, geopolitical risk rarely rates consideration by investors. One reason for this is that prior to the terrorist attacks on the United States in September 2001, and the resultant launch of Washington's "war on terror", global geopolitical risk was almost non-existent.

The Cold War greatly limited adventurous foreign policy by any one country. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War left the US as the world's sole superpower - power used to advance Washington's global economic agenda rather than to stake political claims in another country or region. With geopolitical instability mostly limited to individual countries during the six decades between the end of World War II and the beginning of the "war on terror", investors rightly focused on domestic issues to evaluate investment risk in individual countries or regions.

The world's relatively benign geopolitical environment changed dramatically once the US invaded Afghanistan, heralding the beginning of the "war on terror". From trying to advance America's economic agenda, the Bush administration's foreign policy was immediately dominated by efforts to depose unfriendly regimes, first in Afghanistan and later in Iraq.

This dramatic shift in the focus of US foreign policy, and accompanying upward leap in geopolitical risk, has barely registered with equity and bond investors worldwide. Judging from world equity and bond-market performance over the past two years, most portfolio investors continue to ignore geopolitical risk when making investment decisions.

more...

[54anickel]

44. Is Another 9/11 in the Works?

http://www.antiwar.com/roberts/?articleid=8713

snip>

If you were being whipped in one fight, would you start a second fight with a bigger and stronger person?

That’s what Bush is doing.

Opinion polls indicate that the Bush regime has succeeded in its plan to make Americans fear Iran as the greatest threat America faces.

The Bush regime has created a major dispute with Iran over that country’s nuclear energy program and then blocked every effort to bring the dispute to a peaceful end.

In order to gain a pretext for attacking Iran, the Bush regime is using bribery and coercion in its effort to have Iran referred to the UN Security Council for sanctions.

In recent statements President Bush and Pentagon chief Donald Rumsfeld blamed Iran for the Iraqi resistance, claiming that the roadside bombs used by the resistance are being supplied by Iran.

It is obvious that Bush intends to attack Iran and that he will use every means to bring war about.

Yet, Bush has no conventional means of waging war with Iran. His bloodthirsty neoconservatives have prepared plans for nuking Iran. However, an unprovoked nuclear attack on Iran would leave the US, already regarded as a pariah nation, totally isolated.

Readers, whose thinking runs ahead of that of most of us, tell me that another 9/11 event will prepare the ground for a nuclear attack on Iran...

more...

[54anickel]

59. Signals - Eric Blumrich

http://www.ericblumrich.com/signals.html

[54anickel]

28. U.S. War Spending to Rise 44% to $9.8 Bln a Month, Report Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=ak3gHkUGPtpY&refer=top_world_news

March 17 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. military spending in Iraq and Afghanistan will average 44 percent more in the current fiscal year than in fiscal 2005, the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service said.

Spending will rise to $9.8 billion a month from the $6.8 billion a month the Pentagon said it spent last year, the research service said. The group's March 10 report cites ``substantial'' expenses to replace or repair damaged weapons, aircraft, vehicles, radios and spare parts.

It also figures in costs for health care, fuel, national intelligence and the training of Iraqi and Afghan security forces -- ``now a substantial expense,'' it said.

The research service said it considers ``all war and occupation costs,'' while the Pentagon counts just the cost of personnel, maintenance and operations.

The House approved emergency funding that includes the military spending last night by a vote of 348-71. The measure authorizes $72 billion for war costs and almost $20 billion for hurricane relief. The Senate is expected to pass it next month.

more...







How it all works...

[wordpix2]

31. now that he's secured $9 trillion debt limit to help robber barons, he can

retire

[UpInArms]

10. Grasso Said to Have Refused Questions in Trading Inquiry - invokes 5th

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/17/business/17grasso.html?ex=1143262800&en=e3048561e3e1ca6f&ei=5099&partner=TOPIXNEWS

Richard A. Grasso, the former chairman of the New York Stock Exchange, invoked his right not to incriminate himself during a deposition last June by the Securities and Exchange Commission, a lawyer in the New York attorney general's office said yesterday.

Mr. Grasso "was questioned in connection with an investigation into illegal trading activity," said Avi Schick, a lawyer in the office of Eliot Spitzer, the New York attorney general. Mr. Grasso was "asked about his knowledge of specialists' illegal activities," Mr. Schick said after a hearing yesterday on Mr. Spitzer's lawsuit that seeks to recover some of Mr. Grasso's $139.5 million pay package.

During the hearing before Justice Charles E. Ramos of New York State Supreme Court in Manhattan, Mr. Schick said that the S.E.C.'s questions concerned regulatory oversight of the New York exchange from 1999 to 2003. As chairman, Mr. Grasso was the exchange's primary regulator. N.Y.S.E. specialists are market makers who buy and sell stocks on floor of the exchange.

Fifteen former New York Stock Exchange floor traders were indicted nearly a year ago on charges that they cheated customers by mishandling trades to enrich their firms. In 2004, seven specialists firms paid more than $243 million in a settlement with the S.E.C. and the exchange over accusations that they profited on trades at the expense of their customers.

<snip>

Mr. Spitzer sued Mr. Grasso in May 2004, contending that Mr. Grasso misled the board of the exchange to award him $139.5 million in compensation and that the compensation was unreasonable under New York State laws governing conduct at nonprofit institutions. Mr. Grasso has denied the lawsuit's claims and argues that the board knowingly approved the pay package.

...more...

[UpInArms]

11. Mellon sets $20 million buyout of ex-CEO's contract

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=1732846&business=true

Mar 16, 2006 — NEW YORK (Reuters) - Mellon Financial Corp. <MEL.N> said it will pay about $20 million to buy out the contract of its retiring chairman and chief executive, even as it acknowledged returns have underperformed peers by more than 20 percent in recent years.

Mellon said in a proxy statement on Wednesday it plans to take a $19.3 million charge in the first quarter to cover costs associated with the retirement of Martin McGuinn.

<snip>

McGuinn, appointed chairman and CEO in 1999, stepped down on February 13, the same day his successor, former Wachovia Corp. executive Robert Kelly, took over. McGuinn joined the company in 1981 as a senior vice president.

McGuinn came under criticism for not doing enough to improve Mellon's stock performance. The company's total return to shareholders, according to the proxy, has underperformed peers and broad stock market gauges over the past five years.

A $100 investment in Mellon common stock in 2000 was worth $77.50 at the end of 2005, including dividends. That compared with $102.70 for the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 Index and $100.50 for a broad grouping of asset managers and financial service firms called the New Peer Group, the proxy said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

14. AIG slips in pre-open after 4Q net tumbles 72%

What was it that Maurice Greenberg said? Oh, I remember!

Fraudulent Accounting will have 'No Impact'

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B9BF18E9E%2D8CB8%2D4C94%2D8907%2D4B9EA9C6F553%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Insurance giant American International Group said Thursday its fourth-quarter profit fell 72% after booking more than $2 billion of charges for regulatory settlements and increased reserves.
AIG shares fell 1% at $68.54 in pre-open trading.

<snip>

AIG said 2004's results were restated, "to address the correction of certain errors, the preponderance of which were identified during the ongoing remediation of previously disclosed material weaknesses in internal control."

The latest quarterly results included a charge of $1.15 billion from previously announced regulatory settlements, as well as a $1.19 billion after tax charge for increased reserves for losses and loss expenses.

Fourth-quarter results also include about $390 million after-tax net losses arising from Hurricane Wilma, including net reinstatement premium costs, as well as about $150 million after-tax net losses relating to adverse development from third quarter catastrophe events, primarily Hurricane Katrina.

Analysts polled by Thomson First Call had, on average, expected the company to earn 24 cents a share.

In February, AIG announced the $1.6 billion settlement to resolve regulators' charges that it used fraudulent accounting techniques to artificially bolster results and rigged bids for commercial insurance.

...more...

[54anickel]

24. What’s New with the Accounting Shell Game? More Shells.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/willettalway031406.html

Following the collapse of Enron, Worldcom and others, regulators were temporarily given the power to dramatically improve US accounting standards. To be sure, and as the passing of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 will attest, restoring investor confidence became a top priority of politicians and Wall Street. Regulators could, and did, pass tough regulations with little resistance.

But while Sarbanes-Oxley succeeded in expanding financial practice and corporate governance regulations, its focus was not on overhauling accounting. Rather, the task of cleaning up accounting standards was largely left to the SEC and FASB. Unfortunately, instead of welcomed changes following Enron, investors got new SEC Chairman Harvey Pitt. Mr. Pitt’s first, and perhaps only notable item of business, was to force CEOs and financial chiefs to swear "to the best of my knowledge" that their financial statements were accurate. Apparently the groundbreaking Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 left out the part about CEOs not lying to investors.

Suffice to say, more than 4-years after Enron – and with the trials of Skilling and Lay finally starting - accounting restatements continue to balloon higher each year, and the SEC has yet to prosecute a major case of 'certification' fraud (a recent study by Glass, Lewis and Co. tallied 1,295 restatements in 2005, or more than triple the amount the year S-O was passed). Along with ballooning restatements new and much needed accounting standards on goodwill stress tests and pension accounting are still in limbo, and no one has the temerity to seriously tackle derivatives transparency. In Buffett’s case with Gen Re, 22,477 derivatives contracts have been unwound at a loss of $404 million, and yet 741 contracts remain. Given that Buffett was optimistic about a quick and relatively painless exit from Gen Re’s derivatives business nearly 4-years ago, the Gen Re example is proof that not only can derivative businesses not be properly accounted for (how can the cost of unwinding a 100-year contract be properly accounted for?), but also that the world's smartest investor can be duped. The Gen Re situation also goes to show that certain derivatives positions are probably being overstated by numerous companies. With the threat of straying off topic, no regulator cares.

“A given contract may be valued at one price by Firm A and at another by Firm B. You can bet that the valuation differences – and I’m personally familiar with several that were huge – tend to be tilted in a direction favoring higher earnings at each firm. It’s a strange world in which two parties can carry out a paper transaction that each can promptly report as profitable.”
Warren Buffett. March 1, 2006


snip>

“Gen Re was a relatively minor operator in the derivatives field. It has had the good fortune to unwind its supposedly liquid positions in a benign market, all the while free of financial or other pressures that might have forced it to conduct the liquidation in a less-than-efficient manner. Our accounting in the past was conventional and actually thought to be conservative. Additionally, we know of no bad behavior by anyone involved.

It could be a different story for others in the future. Imagine, if you will, one or more firms (troubles often spread) with positions that are many multiples of ours attempting to liquidate in chaotic markets and under extreme, and well-publicized, pressures. This is a scenario to which much attention should be given now rather than after the fact. The time to have considered – and improved – the reliability of New Orleans’ levees was before Katrina.” Buffett

more...

[UpInArms]

16. Treasurys rally ahead of data

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BF5054CE1%2D8339%2D4875%2D87E1%2D00F6B3E000BB%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices were higher early Friday, sending yields down, in an extension of a rally seen the prior day linked to mounting belief that the Federal Reserve will end its current program of quarter-point rate increases sooner rather than later.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note last was up 20/32 at 98-25/32 with a yield ($TNX 46.62, +0.16, +0.3% ) of 4.656%.

On Thursday yields fell sharply after weak housing data and a report showing tame consumer inflation caused some investors to wonder if the Fed might stop hiking rates after its March 28 monetary policy meeting. Earlier in the week the market had priced in three more rate increases.

According to Action Economics, yields moved fractionally higher overnight when Asian accounts took profits on Thursday's rally.

...more...

[UpInArms]

19. pre-opening blather

09:02 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.5. The cash market is still poised to start the session on a lackluster note. Some consolidation across the Treasury market has yields ticking slightly higher. That market continues to occupy much of the stock market's spotlight, and rising yields (albeit modest, at this point) are apt to weigh on stocks. At this juncture, the benchmark 10-year note is down five ticks and yielding 4.66%. When the equity market closed yesterday, that bond was up 22 ticks and offering 4.64%.

08:31 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.5. Futures trade continues to indicate that the stock market will start the session in subdued fashion. Solid gains in overseas markets add to the support that easing bond yields are lending, but some typical reservation ahead of the weekend, due to geopolitical uncertainty, is helping keep buying in check. Also, there is not much of fresh trading catalyst other than the bearish AIG and GM news. The economic calendar features a few upcoming items. Industrial Production (0.8%) and Capacity Utilization (consensus 81.4%) are both due out at 9:15 ET, followed by the U of M Sentiment reading (consensus 88.0) at 9:50 ET.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.0. Futures trade suggests that the market will start the session on a fairly lackluster, but albeit slightly higher, note. The drop in market rates and a growing sense that the Fed is near the end of its tightening cycle are serving as underlying sources of support. However, sentiment is being tempered by American International Group's disappointing earnings report. Fellow Dow component General Motors (GM) is also weighing on the market; the company has delayed its 10K filing, and said that it will a book a larger loss for 2005 than it previously reported.

[UpInArms]

21. 10:08 EST numbers and some blather

Dow 11,277.25 +24.01 (+0.21%)
Nasdaq 2,299.46 -0.10 (-0.00%)
S&P 500 1,307.29 +1.96 (+0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 4.668 +0.22 (+0.47%)

NYSE Volume 756,680,000
Nasdaq Volume 780,772,000

09:40 am : The Dow and S&P are extending gains. A moderately bullish underlying sentiment continues to lift the market. Behind the tone is the growing sense that the light at the end of the Fed's tightening cycle is approaching. Sectors such as Financials are getting a boost on the idea that it is time to start looking past this round of rate hikes to better times ahead. Inflation remains steady, though, and growth prospects haven't changed. To that end, this morning's economic data showed that industrial production is pushing further into record territory. Treasuries are consolidating recent gains, and yields are creeping upward this morning. The 10-year is down seven ticks and yielding 4.67%. Bond action continues to occupy much of the stock market's attention and is apt to affect trade today. There is little news, but an earnings miss from AIG (AIG) and news that GM (GM) will report a bigger than previously announced loss are items garnering added attention.DJ30 +19.05 NASDAQ -0.80 SP500 +1.63

09:18 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.0. Industrial Production increased a slightly less than expected 0.7% (consensus 0.8%) in February. In-line with expectations, Capacity Utilization rose 81.2%(consensus 81.4%). The stock market's initial reaction to the data is a muted one; similarly, bonds are holding steady.

[ozymandius]

23. new numbers, new blather

10:26
Dow 11,275.33 +22.09 (+0.20%)
Nasdaq 2,301.26 +1.70 (+0.07%)
S&P 500 1,307.78 +2.45 (+0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 46.78 +0.32 (+0.69%)
NYSE Volume 868,400,000
Nasdaq Volume 899,100,000

10:00 am : The Dow and S&P are clinging to modest gains while the Nasdaq edges lower. The Tech sector (-0.2%) is extending its decline today, and is weighing in the Composite. Yesterday, it closed with a 0.9% loss that was largely the result of a drop in the semiconductor and semiconductor equipment industries. Semis are weak again today and exerting considerable pressure. Separately, the University of Michigan's preliminary read on Consumer Sentiment checked in at 86.7 - a bit below the 88.0 read. Although there isn't as strong a correlation between consumer sentiment and consumer spending as some would have you think, the lower than expected reading hasn't helped drive buying interest.DJ30 +19.45 NASDAQ -1.78 SP500 +1.68 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1324/1127/605.8 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1182/1456/472.5 mln

[54anickel]

25. The End of the Happy Ending?

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/demeritt031506.html

Okay, I'll admit it. I'm American. And I'm probably spoiled. About as spoiled as most Yanks, born post World War II, get.

With the possible exception of veterans, humanitarian workers, and the genuinely poor, we in the good, old U.S. of A. are pretty much in the same "spoiled" boat. And we can't even see it, that's the irony. We're infected with a serious case of "privilege blindness," and it keeps us from seeing just how good we have it.

No, I'm not on any guilt trip (though my mom did tell me as a kid to eat all of my vegetables "because a billion Chinese will go to bed hungry tonight."). And I'm not about to compensate for my prosperity by moving to a poor country and following in Mother Teresa's footsteps, as noble as that might be.

It's just that, lately, I've had these anxiety bouts. And I've come to believe that our lack of perspective-this serious American blindspot of ours-may prove dangerous to us one day soon. Because just when we're most certain "it can't happen here," is when you can bet your bottom dollar it will.


"It Can't Happen Here" - Revisited

Americans have grown up believing in the happy ending. It reassures us, inspires us, whispers to us that, while we may go through some pretty nasty stuff, things will always turn out well in the end.

more...

[54anickel]

49. Don't Buy The Hype

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/balarie/balarie031706.html

The stock market hit a 5 year high yesterday. Across the street from where I work, a Ferrari dealership recently opened up. Throughout America, families are eating out more often, digital cable has become a basic household necessity, and flat screen televisions are flying off the shelves. At first glance, all of these signs point to a robust economy. Consumers are spending money, corporations have record profits, and relative to the other citizens of this world, Americans are living lifestyles of the rich and famous.

As picturesque as the above scenario seems, it is no wonder why your average investor is not buying into the recessionary scenario. The stock market is heading higher, their home prices have appreciated, and the Fed is continually asserting that we have minimal inflation. As a result, investors are content on focusing their current lifestyles while ignoring the much larger global economic picture that is unfolding before their eyes.

In truth, the larger global economic picture does not look good for the overall US economy. Whereas the United States was once a great manufacturing economy, we have now become the greatest debtor nation in the world. Whereas the US dollar was once the safe haven of wealth, it is now be divested from Central Banks around the globe. Whereas the average US consumer had income and savings to continually purchase goods, they are now in debt. There is no question that these major fundamental factors have to be acknowledged. Focusing solely on your immediate lifestyle is hopelessly optimistic and shortsighted.

In his testimony before Congress, Ben Bernanke stated that he will rely heavily on data to determine how the economy is fairing. It is no wonder why your average investor is complacent about the long term outlook for our economy. Bernanke's comment in itself, reaffirmed that he will likely follow in the footsteps of Alan Greenspan. Relying mostly on data is like waiting for your kid's report card to determine if he needs help on his studies. Instead of noticing that he is not doing his homework and often misses class, you decide to take a "wait and see" outlook on the economy. This "wait and see" outlook will seem blissful in the short term, but will add greater damage to the US economy in the long-term. For example, instead of working on ways to combat inflation, Bernanke will spend time touting the overall strength of the US economy and the minimal Core CPI numbers. Until inflation is blatantly obvious and we are in the midst of a recession, he will likely be in denial of the true economic state of affairs.

more...

[UpInArms]

50. Today's tune brought to you from the 70s

When I think of all the worries people seem to find
And how they're in a hurry to complicate their mind
By chasing after money and dreams that can't come true
I'm glad that we are different, we've better things to do
May others plan their future, I'm busy lovin' you (1-2-3-4)
Sha-la-la-la-la-la, live for today
Sha-la-la-la-la-la, live for today
And don't worry 'bout tomorrow, hey, hey, hey
Sha-la-la-la-la-la, live for today
Live for today

We were never meant to worry the way that people do
And I don't need to hurry as long as I'm with you
We'll take it nice and easy and use my simple plan
You'll be my lovin' woman, I'll be your lovin' man
We'll take the most from living, have pleasure while we can (2-3-4)
Sha-la-la-la-la-la, live for today
Sha-la-la-la-la-la, live for today
And don't worry 'bout tomorrow, hey, hey, hey
Sha-la-la-la-la-la, live for today
Live for today

Grass Roots

[54anickel]

52. Good grief, that could be W's theme today. Saw something in LBN

about Republicans don't worry about the future...Bush at a fund raiser with his base. That could have been the theme song (with some minor lyric changes).

When I think of all the worries people seem to find
And how they're in a hurry to complicate their mind
By chasing after money and dreams that can't come true
I'm glad that we are different, I give the better things to you
May others plan their future, I'll be enriching you (1-2-3-4)
Sha-la-la-la-la-la, live for today
Sha-la-la-la-la-la, live for today
And don't worry 'bout tomorrow, hey, hey, hey
Sha-la-la-la-la-la, live for today
Live for today

We were never meant to worry the way those people do
And I don't need to hurry as long as I have you
We'll take it nice and easy and use my simple plan
You fund my cronies campaigns, they'll ensure you ill-got gains
We'll take the most from living, take pleasure in their pains (2-3-4)
Sha-la-la-la-la-la, live for today
Sha-la-la-la-la-la, live for today
And don't worry 'bout tomorrow, hey, hey, hey
Sha-la-la-la-la-la, live for today
Live for today

[auagroach]

61. May I add to Mr. Demeritt's remarks...

Mother Nature abhors a free lunch and the U.S.A. has reach obese epidemical proportions feeding at the trough of reserve currency. Time to pay up.

[54anickel]

26. Whirlpool's Maytag Purchase May Be Opposed by U.S.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=appCZKeQLR3A&refer=us

March 17 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Justice Department lawyers are gathering evidence for a possible court challenge to Whirlpool Corp.'s proposed $1.68 billion purchase of home appliance rival Maytag Corp., people familiar with the case say.

Justice Department lawyers are concerned the Whirlpool deal is anticompetitive, said antitrust lawyers who spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to speak about the case. They have questioned such retailers as Lowe's Cos. and Home Depot Inc. and Whirlpool's appliance maker rivals, the lawyers said.

The decision on whether to pursue the agency's first court challenge to a takeover in two years will be up to the Bush administration's new antitrust chief, Thomas O. Barnett, 44. It will be the first test of his approach to mergers since he won Senate confirmation Feb. 10 as assistant attorney general.

``If they don't challenge this merger, Ford and General Motors is next,'' said Steven M. Axinn, a New York antitrust lawyer not involved in the transaction. ``Unless someone can argue that Maytag is going out of business, I don't understand how the government can let this deal happen.''

The combination of Whirlpool, which makes stoves, ranges and washing machines, and Maytag, manufacturer of Amana refrigerators and Maytag washers and dryers, would create the world's largest appliance maker. The takeover would give Whirlpool more than 70 percent of the U.S. market for washing machines and driers and almost half the dishwasher market.

more...

[MARALE]

38. I live near Newton, Ia

I have some friends that work there and they are working on a skeleton crew right now. I would be happy if Whirlpool did not take them over, but I think someone needs to buy them and give them the backing that they need, because they are strapped for cash.
It would definitely be a monopoly if this goes through. I wonder what Barnett will do?

:popcorn:

[UpInArms]

29. Doral signs consent orders w/ Fed; no fines assessed

Consent Orders are the beginnings of bank failures - I remember those from the S&L debacle of the 80s.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B8DD1E93D%2DA1D5%2D4D03%2D9AE1%2D3FB16C3CABB4%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Doral Financial Corp. (DRL 10.39, -0.45, -4.2% ) said Friday its principal unit, Doral Bank, signed consent orders with the Federal Reserve's board of governors. The orders are related to Doral's previously disclosed restatement of its financials to correct its accounting for certain mortgage loan sale transactions and the valuation of its interest only strips. The orders recognize that Doral Financial and Doral Bank "neither admit nor deny any unsafe and unsound banking practices" and to conduct reviews of its mortgage portfolios and submit plans for the maintenance of capital adequacy and liquidity. Doral noted that no fines or monetary penalties were assessed under the orders and said it expects to remain "well-capitalized" as of Dec. 31. The order does, however, restrict Doral from obtaining extensions of credit from, or entering into certain asset purchase and sale transactions with, Doral Bank, without the prior approval of the Federal Reserve. The company said Doral Bank also may not pay a dividend without government approval. Doral shares were off 3% to $10.50 in early trades.

[UpInArms]

30. Three Puerto Rico lenders settle with Fed, FDIC

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-03-17T154258Z_01_N17240075_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-PUERTORICO-BANKS.XML

NEW YORK, March 17 (Reuters) - Three of Puerto Rico's biggest lenders have agreed to special oversight by U.S. regulators after improperly accounting for mortgage-related transactions.

Doral Financial Corp. (DRL.N: Quote, Profile, Research), First BanCorp (FBP.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and R&G Financial Corp. (RGF.N: Quote, Profile, Research) agreed to hire independent consultants to review their mortgage portfolios, and to submit plans regarding their capital adequacy and liquidity.

The Thursday agreements with the Federal Reserve arose from the lenders' improper valuation of floating-rate, interest-only securities known as "strips."

All three companies have overhauled top management and are restating several years of financial results. Doral last month said a restatement of 2000 to 2004 results reduced net income for those years by $609 million.

<snip>

"The settlements mean, essentially, that any time these banks want to make major changes, such as restructuring or issuing debt or repurchasing stock, they have to get regulatory approval," said Avi Barak, an analyst at Sandler O'Neill & Partners LP in New York. "Until I see restated numbers, I would avoid these stocks."

...more...

[54anickel]

32. Gulf bourse scare signals new political realities

http://today.reuters.com/news/NewsArticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=uri:2006-03-16T163025Z_01_L16714323_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-GULF-INTERVENTION.xml&pageNumber=0&summit=

snip>

The Saudi bourse, the largest in the Arab world, lost over 30 percent of its capitalization in just two weeks and threatened to take down with it its smaller neighbours, where many of the 17 million Saudi nationals also invest.

snip>

But with millions of ordinary citizens in Gulf countries jumping on the market bandwagon, governments that severely restrict political participation suddenly find themselves facing constituencies with the power to demand their attention.

It is entirely new territory for a country like Saudi Arabia in particular, which allowed the first, limited voting by the public to municipal councils only last year and has an unelected quasi-parliament which offers the cabinet unbinding opinions.

snip>

Analysts say the explicit aim of Gulf governments during this second wind has been to use stock markets to distribute the new wealth, diversifying and developing their economies after the petrodollars of the 1970s headed abroad to Western banks.

snip>

In Saudi Arabia, an absolute monarchy where the ruling family even gives its name to the country, the stock market revolution threatens to create a middle class where there has never been one. A middle class might demand a say in the running the country, no longer settling for state largesse.

more...

[ozymandius]

33. weakness starting to appear

11:23
Dow 11,263.56 +10.32 (+0.09%)
Nasdaq 2,300.52 +0.96 (+0.04%)
S&P 500 1,306.42 +1.09 (+0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 46.68 +0.22 (+0.47%)
NYSE Volume 1,135,618,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,180,430,000

10:55 am : Four of the ten economic sectors are now trending lower. As a result, the indices are paring gains. Energy, down 0.6%, is currently faring worst. Following yesterday's spike, prices across the energy complex have pulled back. Gasoline, which has led the recent price advance on supply concerns, is today leading the way lower. It's off 1.3% at this point. Crude is about 0.8% lower and hovering just above $63 per barrel; yesterday, oil futures were pushing $64. Other than sparking selling in the Energy sector, the price action appears to be having little effect on trade at this point. Another sore spot is the Financial sector (-0.1%). With the slight rise in bond yields, investors are taking the opportunity to lock in some of the sector's recent gain. Additionally, earnings related weakness in AIG (AIG 67.35 -1.89) is weighing heavily there. The lack of Financials' leadership today is helping to stunt the market's advance.DJ30 +7.37 NASDAQ -2.09 SP500 +0.40 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1572/1127/981.1 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1372/1572/707.9 mln

10:30 am : Over the past half hour, the Dow and S&P have stood relatively still; the Nasdaq has just inched over the flat line. A rebound in the Tech sector (+0.1%) is behind the move. Although the major averages' action appears to be subdued, trading volume is very high. Today marks a quarterly phenomenon known as "quadruple witching," which is the simultaneous expiration of four types of futures and options contracts. On contract expiration days, the market often sees added volume and volatility. DJ30 +20.40 NASDAQ +1.09 SP500 +1.98 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1452/1160/814.4 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1430/1441/600.0 mln

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

43. Nope! - Won't Happen! - Not On Green St. Patrick's Day!

Everytime a cnbc anchor mentions St. Patrick's Day or the color Green, somewhere a large buy order gets filled.

[UpInArms]

41. In 2001, only 15 companies lobbied officials regarding domestic security.

In 2001, only 15 companies lobbied officials regarding domestic security. By 2004, that number had grown to 861

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/17/politics/17ashcroft.html

Asskkkrap - the seamiest lobbyist yet :puke:

To do so, he has amassed a staff of Republican insiders and rented fancy offices. For corporations seeking contracts from the growing homeland security budget, Mr. Ashcroft promises to draw on his central role in the war on terror and in helping set up the Department of Homeland Security. For companies in trouble with regulators, he says his experience in cracking down on corporate corruption can provide valuable insights.

"Clients would call in an individual who has a reputation for the highest level of integrity," he said in an interview in his office. "Those who have been in government should not be forbidden from helping people deal with government, which is what I see myself doing." In the hourlong interview, Mr. Ashcroft used the word "integrity" scores of times.

<snip>

Still, some critics find his move from the nation's chief law enforcement officer to K Street, the heart of the lobbying world, to be as undignified as it is unusual.

[UpInArms]

45. corporate bankruptcy - letting them off the hook

Didn't Congress just make it more difficult for individuals to file bankruptcy and erase their debts?

Well, lookie here folks!

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-03-17T171015Z_01_N17273928_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-SUPPLIERS.XML

Companies may view bankruptcy as an efficient way to get out of legacy costs, including retirement and retiree health care obligations, whether they admit it or not in court documents, S&P said.

[UpInArms]

46. 12:34 EST Dancin' on the Green for St Paddy's Day

Dow 11,287.82 +34.58 (+0.31%)
Nasdaq 2,310.82 +11.26 (+0.49%)
S&P 500 1,309.70 +4.37 (+0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 4.676 +0.30 (+0.65%)

NYSE Volume 1,421,367,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,484,887,000

12:00 pm : Friday's indices are trading within a very narrow range that is within close proximity of the unchanged mark. A developing sense that the Fed is nearing the end of its monetary tightening cycle has been behind the market's recently improved sentiment. Inflation remains steady, though, and growth prospects haven't changed. Today's economic data speaks to that point. It appears that the market has begun to look past the current round of rate hikes, but we are concerned that it's getting a bit ahead of itself. Today's bias remains positive, but the indices' flat line vacillation reflects some reserve in light of recent gains, geopolitical uncertainty heading into the weekend, and the fact that monetary policy ultimately remains uncertain. As a side note, today is a quadruple contract expiration day, and volume is significantly higher.

Of late, the Treasury market has been a focal point of the stock market. Easing bond yields have provided relief and driven stock buying. Today, that market is consolidating. Although yields are just slightly higher (the 10-year is down five ticks and up to a 4.66% yield), the action within that market is giving the stock market a reason to pause. The report of strong industrial production, which pushed further into record territory last month, reflects a strong economy. To that end, the Industrials sector (+0.7%) is again faring well and supporting the market. Conversly, the bond market has taken a bearish cue from the data. An upcoming Bernanke appearance, scheduled for Monday, may be adding to that market's caution.

The Financial sector is trading in relatively flat fashion. There is continued strength in the investment banking and brokerage industry, but a drop in insurance is an offsetting factor. AIG (AIG 68.02 -1.22) is behind the decline. The Dow component reported fourth quarter earnings that checked in well below expectations. On a related note, reports suggest that St. Paul Travelers (STA 42.10 -0.86) is considering a merger with Zurich Financial. That potential union would pose a challenge to rival AIG. The lack of Financials' leadership today is contributing to the market's sideways trading pattern. Fellow blue chip General Motors (GM 21.48 -0.74) is another weak spot. The company announced that it has delayed the filing of its 10K, and that it will post a sharply worse than previously announced loss.

The Energy sector is weighing heavily. Following yesterday's sharp spikes, energy prices are retreating. Gasoline, which has led the complex's recent advance on supply concerns, is today leading the way lower. Crude is down 1.1% and below $63 per barrel after pushing $64 yesterday. Most sectors are trending near unchanged ground. Tech, on the other hand, has recently rebounded, due to a recovery in semiconductors. Its 0.4% gain is helping to offset Energy's loss. DJ30 +13.36 NASDAQ +4.03 SP500 +1.48 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1447/1386/1.32 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1533/1561/960.8 mln

[54anickel]

47. Celebrating the special dispensation - Corned beef and cabbage all around!

Now I have such a decision. Fish-fry Friday is a family tradition - but we also normally do the CB&B thing for St Patty's.

Decisions, decisions... :freak:

[54anickel]

48. 1:40 and interest is waning

Dow 11,264.68 +11.44 (+0.10%)
Nasdaq 2,304.11 +4.55 (+0.20%)
S&P 500 1,306.44 +1.11 (+0.09%)
10-yr Bond 4.672% +0.03
30-yr Bond 4.712% +0.02
NYSE Volume 1,651,065,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,732,549,000

1:30 pm : Equities have moved back towards the flat line. The Treasury market, meanwhile, continues to experience some consolidation. Prices are down across the curve, and therefore yields are ticking upward. The long end is taking the most heat. The 30-year note, which is the most inflation-sensitive, is down 12 ticks and yielding 4.72%. The benchmark 10-year note, which has been one of the stock market's focak points of late, is currently down eight thirty-seconds and yielding 4.67%. Although that yield is up from yesterday's, it still is down sharply on the week. Last Friday, the 10-year was yielding 4.75% when the stock market closed.DJ30 +3.92 NASDAQ +3.44 SP500 +0.68 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1398/1499/1.66 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1380/1781/1.20 bln

1:00 pm : Since the last update, several sectors have advanced. Technology and Industrials, each up 0.7%, are supporting the market. Those gains, along with five other sectors', are helping the indices sustain gains. Energy (-0.7%), Telecom (-0.1%), and Utilities (-0.2%) remain the laggards, but their losses are currently being offset. Further, Energy has bounced a bit from its session lows, as the price of crude oil has done the same. Its pared loss has somewhat lessened the pressure the indices face today. DJ30 +29.45 NASDAQ +8.61 SP500 +3.36 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1358/1521/1.55 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1359/1778/1.12 bln

[ozymandius]

51. 2:36

Dow 11,272.06 +18.82 (+0.17%)
Nasdaq 2,305.52 +5.96 (+0.26%)
S&P 500 1,307.03 +1.70 (+0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 46.76 +0.30 (+0.65%)
NYSE Volume 1,849,448,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,922,094,000

2:30 pm : Sideways trade persists. Although the stock market continues to demonstrate somewhat of a positive bias, gains continue to be very modest. Volume is heavy, because of the fact that four types of contracts expire today, but the indices' action reflects what is some typical Friday reserve. Heading into the weekend, traders are often somewhat cautious due to geopolitical uncertainty. Further, the market has had a respectable run of late, and traders appear to be taking a pause. Similar to the indices, Treasury yields are standing relatively still. DJ30 +17.77 NASDAQ +5.67 SP500 +1.70 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1440/1494/1.87 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 13951/1797/1.36 bln

2:00 pm : The market remains near unchanged territory, with the Nasdaq still faring best. Of the Dow's 30 constituents, one-third of them are now booking losses. General Motors (GM 21.58 -0.64) is the sorest spot. The auto manufacturer's indication that has delayed the filing of its 10K -- and that it will include more red ink than had been previously announced -- has driven the stock sharply lower. AIG (AIG 67.75 -1.49), after missing the Q4 consensus estimate by $0.14, also exerts substantial pressure. On the other side of the aisle, some solid gains in Boeing (BA 77.84 +1.11), Pfizer (PFE 26.34 +0.29), and United Technologies (UTX 58.81 +0.58) are offsetting factors. DJ30 +6.72 NASDAQ +4.27 SP500 +0.68 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1463/1462/1.75 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1465/1718/1.26 bln

[54anickel]

53. Spitzer says H&R Block settlement less likely

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/060317/financial_hrblock_spitzer.html?.v=2

NEW YORK (Reuters) - New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, who this week filed a suit against H&R Block Inc. (NYSE:HRB - News) alleging deceptive marketing of a savings account product, on Friday said the tax-preparation company's public denials make a settlement less likely.

Spitzer, responding to a Wall Street Journal editorial written by H&R Block Chief Executive Mark Ernst on Friday, told Reuters that the company made "misleading, false statements repeatedly" during months of negotiations.

Spitzer also said Ernst's actions since the suit was filed -- including a press release Wednesday, the op-ed piece Friday and the disclosure of negotiations -- "make it very difficult for me to imagine that we will settle."

As a result, Spitzer said, "the ultimate cost to H&R Block shareholders is going up dramatically."

He also warned: "H&R Block faces vast fines and penalties" as a result of its actions.

more...

[ozymandius]

54. closing numbers - now with blather

Have a great weekend folks!

Ozy :hi:

Dow 11,279.65 +26.41 (+0.23%)
Nasdaq 2,306.48 +6.92 (+0.30%)
S&P 500 1,307.25 +1.92 (+0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 46.74 +0.28 (+0.60%)
NYSE Volume 2,543,156,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,540,121,000

4:20 pm : The market managed to sustain gains - albeit modest ones - on Friday. For the S&P 500, it was the sixth consecutive advance. Investors have a growing sense that the end of the current monetary tightening cycle is nearing, and the market's recent performance reflects an improvement in underlying sentiment. However, inflation remains steady, and growth prospects haven't changed. Economic data will dictate Fed policy, and today's strong reading on industrial production spoke to that point. It appears that the market has begun to look past the current round of rate hikes, but we are concerned that it's getting a bit ahead of itself. We are by no means bearish, and remain upbeat for the year, but we are cautious about getting too carried away with the current rally based on yet another guess as to when the Fed will stop raising rates.

Treasuries continue to occupy much of stock traders' attention. That market consolidated a bit today, and bond yields ticked higher. The benchmark 10-year note rose to a 4.67% yield, but still remained considerably lower on the week. At the close of equity trade last Friday, that bond was offering 4.75%. The fact that yields rose appeared to have helped temper equity buying, but it did not prevent it. Rate-sensitive areas performed in mixed fashion. Homebuilders enjoyed follow-through buying interest, the Utility sector booked a 0.5% loss, and the Financial sector rose 0.3%. With respect to the latter area, an earnings-related decline in American International Group (AIG 68.76 -0.48) stunted its advance. The Dow component delivered fourth quarter profit per share that fell $0.14 short of expectations. On a related note, reports suggesting that rival St. Paul Travelers (STA 41.52 -1.44) is considering a merger with Zurich Financial did not help matters for AIG.

AIG's fellow Dow component General Motors (GM 21.09 1.13) was a significant sore spot. The auto manufacturer disclosed that it has delayed filing its 10K - and that it will book a loss that is sharply worse than had been previously reported. That stock helped inhibit both the Dow and the Discretionary sector (+0.2%). A source of support in the latter area, though, was a pullback in prices across the energy complex. Following yesterday's spike, crude dropped 1.3% and closed at $62.75 per barrel. Yesterday, oil futures were pushing $64. On supply concerns, gasoline has led the complex's recent run. Today, it led the decline. The price action's most noticeable effect was upon the Energy sector (-0.9%), which was the session's laggard. On the other side of the commodity aisle, metals (with the exception of gold) gained. Materials rose 0.2%.

The Industrials sector continued to fare well and led the market with its 0.6% gain. An afternoon advance in Technology (+0.4%) helped support the indices. Cisco (CSCO 21.62 +0.37), one of our portfolio picks, traded at a two-year high. Communication equipment stocks added momentum, and a recovery in the semiconductor group enabled the sector's rise. A guidance announcement from Genentech (DNA 88.14 +5.55), which included a projection for 40-50% earnings per share growth in 2006, spurred buying across the biotechnology board. That pocket of strength teamed with Tech in helping the Nasdaq not only erase its early loss, but outperform both the Dow and the S&P today. Healthcare, on a related note, registered 0.3%.

Volume was very strong today, due to quadruple options expirations, but the indices were tightly-range bound and buying was kept in check. Their vacillation was suggestive of some reserve, in light of the market's recent run, geopolitical uncertainty heading into the weekend, and the fact that monetary policy ultimately remains uncertain. Additionally, the market awaits Fed Chairman Bernanke's discussion on the economy, scheduled for Monday evening, as well as the February Producer Price Index. PPI may be somewhat anticlimactic, though, since CPI has already been released.DJ30 +26.41 NASDAQ +6.92 SP500 +1.92 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1437/1582/2.60 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1442/1807/2.0 bln

[54anickel]

55. Ozy, don't the volumes seem rather high lately, or am I not remembering

correctly? They just seem sort of high the last few weeks. :shrug:

Dang, I always forget to pay more attention to those numbers!

[ozymandius]

57. I read that it's quadruple witching day.

from the noon blather: As a side note, today is a quadruple contract expiration day, and volume is significantly higher.

[54anickel]

58. Ohhh, I missed that. Sheesh, they usually make such a big deal about

those "Witchie" thingies. Alas, just another day.

[ozymandius]

56. Home loan delinquency rate shows increase

More Americans fell behind on their mortgage payments at the end of last year as they struggled in the face of hurricane damage, rising interest rates, higher gas prices and holiday credit card bills, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Thursday.

The percentage of Americans who were delinquent on their home loans rose to 4.7% in the fourth quarter, the highest level since mid-2003. Late mortgage payments soared in the hurricane-stricken states of Louisiana and Mississippi.

And homes in foreclosure reached alarming levels in a handful of Midwest states - Ohio, Indiana and Michigan, for example - that were once the backbone of Industrial America but have seen an exodus of manufacturing jobs.

more...

[corporate_mike]

60. JetBlue adds US routes in effort to boost sales

The low cost carrier said it would start flights to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and Jacksonville, Florida from its hub at New York's JFK International Airport, beginning June 30 and June 15, respectively.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060317/bs_nm/airlines_jetblue_dc