STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 20 March

[ozymandius]

Monday March 20, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 1036 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1915 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1615 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1576
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 17, 2006

Dow... 11,279.65 +26.41 (+0.23%)
Nasdaq... 2,306.48 +6.92 (+0.30%)
S&P 500... 1,307.25 +1.92 (+0.15%)
30-Year Bond 4.72% +0.02 (+0.51%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.67% +0.03 (+0.60%)
Gold future... 555.10 -0.30 (-0.05%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[Oversea Visitor]

1. I like the cartoon :

:rofl:

[ozymandius]

3. Thanks!

After so many years, Oliphant is still sharp. Heck, he probably has first hand experience with the Medicare scam.

[Mnemosyne]

9. I'd like it even more if we could actually turn the Seniors

loose on * in real life! I'm positive the Seniors would enjoy it immensely! :rofl:

[AnneD]

26. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: Spring break is over and it is back to work now. The big new here in Houston is the gas prices. They jumped 4 cents the week before the break and jumped 10 cents overnight at the start of break-ouch.
I worked at a new hospital so I should be getting some extra money (always welcomed). The 2 highlights of the break were St Patrick's Day at the Mucky Duck Pub. Of course, I ran into a bunch of my students AND parents with a pint in my hand (always a special moment if you are not use to pubs).

The other highlight....I suffer thru Fox Sunday Morning because it is the only talk program that comes on before I go to Sunday school and services. This last Sunday was the payoff. Dick Durbin left Chris Wallace pale and speechless (that look on Wallace's face was priceless). Durbin tried to be diplomatic when Wallace pressed him about Feingold censure statement. Wallace would not let up and kept trying to paint Durbin in the corner. Wallace finally said something like would you vote for censure and Durbin said yes. Wallace repeated again because he couldn't believe his ears (this ia when the blood drained from his face). Durbin was very calm and matter of fact at this point and replied again. The second highlight came at the round table discussion with Brit Hume. He is such a pompous condescending, arrogant ass and has all but called Juan Williams 'boy' on several occasions. Well it was the "Wrath of Juan". I can't remember exactly what they were discussing (poll#, lying about Iraq, illegal wire tap) and Bill Cristol agreed with Juan. It hit a nerve and Brit Hume threw a hissy fit-a full fledged temper tantrum. Even Bill leaned back. Juan sat their until he wound down (Chris couldn't get a word in) and then jumped him again with a fact (think it was WMD or something) and Brit flew off again, looking even MORE childish-if that was possible. Juan's lips curled up just slightly. It was classic-like Jon Stuart's thrashing of Tucker. Brit didn't even know he had been out boxed (but Cristol's facial expressions gave it away). I hope it is on CanOFun-it was great.

Happy Hunting and watch out for the bears.

[UpInArms]

28. Hiya AnneD!

Glad to see you this a.m.!

Am glad that all is well with you and yours - it should start to get very interesting in the financial world pretty soon :eyes:

:hi:

[AnneD]

33. Hello UIA

I missed you guys so much. I get such a kick out of reading this thread, it is better than a newspaper. All the news is here. This is the calm before the storm I think. :hi:

[ozymandius]

2. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
Secondary Trend Reconfirmed

This week the bullish Secondary Trend, which was originally confirmed on January 6, 2006, was reconfirmed as both averages bettered their previous Secondary Reaction high points. This, of course, mended the much shorter-term non-confirmation that was trying to form last week. So, from a pure Dow theory perspective, the averages are now setup to challenge the all time high on the Industrials.

-cut-

In fact, the last two intermediate term tops have occurred with just such non-confirmations between these two averages in place. These non-confirmations are marked in blue on the chart below and you can clearly see that we have the same such non-confirmation occurring now. Should the Nasdaq 100 fail to hold this support level, then it should mark the beginning of the end for this intermediate term cycle advance. Should the Nasdaq 100 better its January high, then this non-confirmation will be mended, all four of these averages would be in gear with each other and new recovery highs would be one giant step closer to reality.

-see chart-

The bottom line is that, yes, the Secondary Trend remains positive and has in fact been reconfirmed. I am not arguing that point in the least. Furthermore, the Industrials, Transports and the S&P are all in gear, with the Industrials and the S&P positioned to challenge the old highs as this liquidity driven advance continues to grind on. But, at the same time the internals are rotten to the core. This advance is not healthy internally as is illustrated in part by the charts above. The Nasdaq 100 is once again failing to confirm the latest advance by the Industrials, which creates an important non-confirmation on top of these poor internals. This deteriorating internal picture is simply unhealthy and it will ultimately end badly. In the meantime, the Secondary Trend remains positive and the great liquidity levitation act hangs on a while longer.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[InsultComicDog]

44. Wish I understood what he was saying

[UpInArms]

45. jmho - but here goes

He's saying that although the charts and the methodology behind higher stock market numbers appears to be supported by "the numbers" - those underlying "numbers" are rigged and it could be "game over" very soon.

[WhiteTara]

52. what do you think will happen when

the game is over? Just a brief synopsis would be great. I'm in such a state, I have visions of mass starvation, bodies in the streets,looting, anarchy. I still don't have a "home" and a place to grow food.

[UpInArms]

53. G'morning BNL!

I think that we might look to what happened in Argentina around 2002 for a possible scenario -

Although they seem to have weathered it pretty well considering - but that could be because they had a major political shake-up afterwards and have faced the IMF down pretty well.

My time is short here today - have to get ready to have a bit of democracy in my small town streets :evilgrin:

:hi:

[ozymandius]

4. One report today

10:00 AM Leading Indicators Feb
Briefing Forecast -0.3%
Market Expects -0.3%
Prior 1.1%

[UpInArms]

24. U.S. Feb. leading indicators fall 0.2%

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BF0AC571C%2DCAFF%2D4AA5%2D8F4A%2DD0744F45BB3E%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. index of leading economic indicators fell 0.2% in February after rising for four months in a row, the Conference Board said Monday. "This could be a signal that the economy will continue to expand this spring before slowing later in the year," said Ken Goldstein, an economist for the research group. Five of the 10 indicators declined in February, starting with vendor performance and consumer expectations. The biggest gainers were core capital equipment orders and money supply. The leading index increased a revised 0.5% in January, compared with 1.1% originally reported. The coincident index rose 0.3% in February and the lagging index rose 0.1%.

10:00 AM ET 3/20/06 U.S. FEB. LAGGING INDEX UP 0.1%

10:00 AM ET 3/20/06 U.S. FEB. COINCIDENT INDEX UP 0.3%

10:00 AM ET 3/20/06 U.S. JAN. LEADING INDICATORS REVISED TO 0.5% GAIN VS. 1.1%

10:00 AM ET 3/20/06 5 OF 10 U.S. FEB. LEADING INDICATORS IMPROVE

10:00 AM ET 3/20/06 U.S. FEB. LEADING INDICATORS FALL 0.2% VS. -0.3% EXPECTED

[UpInArms]

48. How about that "sharp downward revision to January"?

Here's how they "skewed" that January number:

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/business/3735357.html

When it comes to the sharp downward revision in January's leading economic indicators, economists at High Frequency Economics Ltd. said the data may have been skewed by a drop in aircraft orders not taken into consideration when the January report was first published.

"The January revision is mostly due to the plunge in aircraft orders reported in the durable goods numbers," according to the report from High Frequency Economics. "The durables report was not available when the LEI was compiled, so the Conference Board assumed orders for nondefense capital goods were unchanged."

The increasing frequency of downward revisions should start to alarm even the most fervent kool-aid drinkers soon.

[ozymandius]

5. Oil Prices Drop on OPEC Demand Forecast

VIENNA, Austria - Oil prices slid Monday in response to lower demand forecasts and growing U.S. crude oil inventories.

With stocks plentiful and growth demand expectations down, some analysts suggested that prices would move downward over the coming months, despite supply concerns from violence-wracked Nigeria and from Iran, the focus of international concerns about its nuclear program.

-cut-

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its forecast Friday for global oil demand growth in 2006 by 110,000 barrels a day. OPEC, which cited lower consumption in the U.S. and Asia, said its prediction comes after signs of larger oil inventories in the U.S., along with higher demand in January and February.

OPEC set oil demand growth for this year at 1.46 million barrels a day and demand for the year at 84.5 million barrels a day. This brings its estimate in line with recent revisions by agencies such as the International Energy Agency and the Energy Information Administration.

more...

[UpInArms]

25. April Crude @ $62.20 bbl - April NatGas @ $6.96 mln btus

10:12 AM ET 3/20/06 APRIL CRUDE FALLS 57C TO $62.20/BRL IN EARLY NY TRADING

10:12 AM ET 3/20/06 APRIL NATURAL GAS DOWN 9.3C, OR 1.3%, AT $6.96/MLN BTUS

[AnneD]

43. Mexico's Largest oilfield in decline....

Bush made such a deal in the SOTU speech about American dependence on Saudi oil-but we import more from Mexico...

Mexico megafield faces decline
Production loss could be bad news for U.S. consumers

MEXICO CITY - Mexico's giant Cantarell oil field, which has financed government spending and held down U.S. gasoline prices for 20 years, is facing a production decline, a prospect that could heighten U.S. dependence on Middle East oil.

An internal report from Mexico's state-owned oil company, leaked last month, said water and gas were seeping into the massive offshore oil field in the southern Gulf of Mexico. That development would reduce Mexican oil output, which would be bad news for U.S. consumers. Mexico is the second-largest supplier of oil to the U.S. market after Canada.

<snip>

Cantarell is one of the world's great oil fields; only Saudi Arabia's Ghawar field is larger. It was discovered in 1976 and has been a workhorse ever since.

"It's a super giant field, so when you have a super giant field declining, it's very difficult to compensate for that," said Adrian Lajous, a veteran oilman and the director of state-owned Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, from 1995 to 1999. "Cantarell has peaked and has started its decline."

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/energy/3732352.html

[ozymandius]

6. Industrial Production Up 0.7 Pct. in Feb.

WASHINGTON - Without the vagaries of changing weather patterns, the growth rate in America's industrial production sector last month likely would have been negligible.

But Mother Nature's weather flip-flop — a return of more-normal winter cold in February after an unusually warm January — caused this significant economic measure to increase by 0.7 percent. This is because of a big pickup in output at utility companies. As this was happening, factory production was flat.

-cut-

Economists(*) believe the economy snapped out of an end-of-year funk and will log healthy growth in the January-to-March quarter.

more...

*CAUTION: These are the people who tend to be "surprised" quite often when their assertions do not materialize.

[ozymandius]

7. Saudi says economy sound despite bourse fall

RIYADH (Reuters) - Saudi macroeconomic indicators are positive despite a sharp correction that hit the local stock exchange recently after a three-year rally, Finance Minister Ibrahim al-Assaf said on Saturday.

"All (macroeconomic) factors encourage investment in the kingdom in general, whether directly or in the financial market," Assaf told reporters.

The two-week correction slashed capitalization of the Arab world's largest bourse by more than 30 percent. The Saudi government holds nearly 40 percent of the bourse's total capitalization through some of the top listed firms.

more...

[ozymandius]

8. Building on gains

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Stocks could open higher Monday as investors look to continue last week's gains ahead of much anticipated comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and results from tech bellwether Oracle (Research).

U.S. stock futures were up in early trading, indicating a higher open for U.S. markets, after the major U.S. indexes closed Friday up about 2 percent each for the week, with the Dow nearing a 5-year high.

Bernanke will speak to the Economic Club of New York at 7 p.m. ET Monday, a week before the central bank policy makers hold their first meeting with him as chairman. While investors and economists agree another quarter-percentage point hike is virtually certain at that meeting, investors will be looking for clues as to the future of rate hikes at subsequent meetings in May and beyond.

-cut-

The board of embattled automaker General Motors (Research) called for an investigation into the cause of newly uncovered accounting errors that forced a delay in filing its annual report and could postpone a critical sale of part or all of its financing arm, according to reports in the Wall Street Journal. The paper reports Jerry York, the company's newest director and an associate of investor Kirk Kerkorian is one of those outside directors pushing for the internal probe.

more...

[54anickel]

10. A Response to Donald Kohn on Asset Bubbles:

The last entry in the Credit Bubble Bulletin...

But first, a couple of graphs on the Current Account deficit:





A Response to Donald Kohn on Asset Bubbles:

Federal Reserve Governor Donald Kohn yesterday presented his views on “Monetary Policy and Asset Prices,” at a conference in Frankfurt: “Monetary Policy: A Journey from Theory to Practice,” a European Central Bank Colloquium held in honor of Otmar Issing. Interestingly, he took the opportunity to clarify the Fed’s view of managing asset inflation and Bubbles, one that contrasts markedly from those of the retiring Otmar Issing and the ECB. No issue is today more critical to central bank policymaking.

From Dr. Kohn’s speech:

“Most fluctuations in stock prices, real estate values, and other asset prices pose no particular challenge to central banks, as they are just some of the usual factors influencing the outlook for real activity and inflation. But many argue that pronounced booms and busts in asset markets are another matter, especially if actual valuations appear to be misaligned with fundamentals. What should a central bank do when it suspects it faces a major speculative event--one that might be large enough to threaten economic stability when it unwinds? To help frame the discussion, I will focus on two different strategies that have been proposed for dealing with market bubbles.”

The first approach--which I will label the conventional strategy--calls for central banks to focus exclusively on the stability of prices and economic activity over the next several years. Under this policy, a central bank responds to stock prices, home values, and other asset prices only insofar as they have implications for future output and inflation over the medium term. Importantly, the strategy eschews any attempt to influence the speculative component of asset prices, treating any perceived mis-pricing as, rightly or wrongly, an essentially exogenous process. Following this strategy does not imply that policymakers ignore the expected future evolution of speculative activity. If policymakers suspect that a bubble is likely, say, to expand for a time before collapsing, the implications of that possibility for future output and inflation need to be folded into their deliberations. Practically speaking, however, I view our ability to act on such suspicions as limited given how little we know about the dynamics of speculative episodes.”

“Despite its approach to perceived speculative activity, the conventional strategy does recognize that monetary policy has an important influence on asset prices--indeed, this influence is at the heart of the transmission of policy decisions to real activity and inflation. It occurs through standard arbitrage channels, such as the link between interest rates and the discount factor used to value expected future earnings.

“The second strategy, by comparison, is more activist and attempts to damp speculative activity directly. It was described at length in ‘Asset Price Bubbles and Monetary Policy,’ an article published by the ECB last year. I quote from the article: ‘This approach amounts to a cautious policy of ‘leaning against the wind’ of an incipient bubble. The central bank would adopt a somewhat tighter policy stance in the face of an inflating asset market than it would otherwise allow if confronted with a similar macroeconomic outlook under more normal market conditions. . . . It would thus possibly tolerate a certain deviation from its price stability objective in the shorter term in exchange for enhanced prospects of preserving price and economic stability in the future.’ I am labeling this second approach extra action, as it calls for steps that would not be taken in ordinary circumstances.”

more...

[54anickel]

15. Issing Says ECB Can't Ignore Money Supply Growth

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=aOM7loa7g4D4&refer=europe

March 20 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank Chief Economist Otmar Issing said the bank can't ignore the inflation risks posed by the increase in the availability of money in the dozen nations sharing the euro.

``A large liquidity build up has developed and we can't ignore it,'' said Issing in an interview on March 17 after a conference in Frankfurt held in his honor by the ECB. ``In the last quarter, growth has moderated, but we can't forget what's already happened.''

Issing and other ECB policy makers have toughened their inflation-fighting stance in the past month, prompting banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and UBS AG to raise forecasts for the ECB's benchmark rate. Issing said March 16 he's ``vigilant'' on inflation and President Jean-Claude Trichet said in an interview with French television channel LCI today the ECB ``will do what is necessary to guarantee stability of prices.''

Investors expect the ECB to raise its benchmark interest rate to as high as 3.25 percent by the end of this year from the current 2.5 percent, futures trading shows. The bank raised rates for a second time in three months on March 2 after increasing its inflation and economic growth forecasts.

more...

[54anickel]

11. Perils of a New Globalization (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20060317-fri.html#anchor0

Economics and politics are on a dangerous collision course. As the forces of globalization strengthen, the drumbeat of protectionism is growing louder. Made in France, the European strain of protectionism reflects a newfound nationalism that strikes at the heart of pan-regional integration. Made in America and exacerbated by fear of the “China factor,” a different strain of protectionism plays to the angst of middle-class US wage earners.

Whether the threat is perceived to be from the inside (Europe) or the outside (the United States), the responses of increasingly populist politicians are worrisome, to say the least. French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin is seeking to protect “strategic” industries from foreign ownership. In the US, it’s not just resistance to foreign takeovers, with bipartisan support building in the Senate to impose steep tariffs on China. All this harkens back to the demise of an earlier globalization that many date by the enactment of the infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 — a political blunder that may well have been key in turning a US stock market crash and recession into worldwide depression. Like the circumstances over 75 years ago, the current global trade dynamic has played an increasingly important role in boosting the world economy. Protectionism and the contraction in global trade it would trigger puts all that at risk.

snip>

The debate breaks down over what needs to be done. The rich countries have opted for protectionism while the poor countries continue to bet on export-led growth. Meanwhile, a confluence of powerful new competitive forces — the open architecture of IT-enabled connectivity, the push for efficiency solutions in the high-cost developed world, and the availability of an enormous reservoir of high-quality offshore knowledge workers — drives the new strain of globalization ahead at breakneck speed. At the same time, the global labor arbitrage is forcing a realignment of relative wages in the world economy — with the developed world fearing a “race to the bottom” while the developing world is hoping to ride the rising tide. The combination of IT-enabled services globalization and real wage stagnation in the rich developed world is too tempting for populist politicians to resist.

Unfortunately, there is no easy resolution of these political and economic tensions. In the end, the competitive profile of any knowledge worker reflects the interplay between skillsets and fully-loaded costs. A nation’s stock of human capital is key in shaping the former, while the ever-declining price of IT-enabled connectivity puts an important new wrinkle into the cost calculus. Countries that sign up for globalization must meet both aspects of this challenge head-on. The hyper-speed by which this challenge is changing in the Internet Age adds a critical urgency to the politicization of globalization — and to the protectionist pressures it has evoked.

The orthodox prescription is to counsel patience — that the “win-win” of globalization eventually will raise living standards in the developing world while creating new markets to be tapped by industrial countries. Yet the hyper-speed of an IT-enabled globalization draws the rewards of that patience into serious question — at least for the foreseeable future. In the end, politicians are always best at counting votes. With workers in services outnumbering those in manufacturing by a factor of five to one, the body politic in the industrial world has cast its ballot in favor of protectionism. Opportunistic politicians are taking the bait — seemingly unconcerned about the tragic lessons of the 1930s. While today’s globalization is very different than it was back then, the risks of making a big mistake on trade policy should not be minimized.

more...

[UpInArms]

12. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

Last trade 89.11 Change +0.01 (+0.01%)

Breakout!

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strategy-pieces/trade-or-fade/7420-.html

On Friday we wrote, “The euro rally can be characterized by four simple words – 5 percent and done. Yesterday’s muted US CPI data convinced the market that the Fed will likely terminate its rate hike campaign at the 5% a level that has already been priced into the greenback. At the same time speculation that the ECB will target 3.5% as its ultimate tightening goal radically shifted market sentiment as traders began to adjust to the narrowing in the interest rate differential between the two currencies.” Add to that the fact that US is now running nearly $1 Trillion Current Account deficit which is having difficulty being financed by ever more reluctant foreign investors and is it any wonder that dollar lost more that 200 basis points against the euro this week?

Our friend Michael Shedlock point to yet another ominous sign for the greenback–the Saudi stock market is down more that 30% in two weeks. Middle east investors, who have been some of the most ardent buyers of US assets with their petro-dollars, may be facing their own form of “Asian contagion” that swept Far East nations in the late 1990’s. None of these developments bode well for the dollar as these same investors may be forced to liquidate some of their US holdings. With little on the calendar next week to inspire dollar longs, the game as we noted last week, belongs to the euro bulls for the time being.

<snip>

You know it was a bad week for dollar bulls when even the yen managed to eke out a gain. The gains however, were paltry relative to euro with the yen only rising 56 basis points against the EUR/USD much more impressive 232 basis point rise. Ironically enough while the EZ data was lackluster but that currency was spurred by hawkish central bank talk, the Japanese data was rather robust, yet the yen was stymied by dovish commentary from a slew of fiscal and monetary officials who stated that the Zero Interest Rate Policy will stay in place for the foreseeable future. As Central Banks from Norway to Iceland to Switzerland to the Eurozone begin to pursue tightening policies, the BOJ remains the sole OECD nation with ultra low short term rates, making the yen the preferred funding vehicle for carry trades. This dynamic along with the fact that the 115.00 zone is the “maginot line” for the always exchange rate sensitive Ministry of Finance will likely prevent any dramatic downward movement in the USD/JPY for the time being

...more...

[UpInArms]

18. Dollar stabilizes before Bernanke speech

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B6E7FD5D5%2D0D22%2D4BB9%2D83AC%2DFDE2D5161ADE%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar was trading around recent lows against its major rivals early Monday ahead of a speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that could shape interest-rate expectations. Bernanke will deliver an address to the Economic Club of New York at 7 p.m. Eastern tonight, just a week before he pounds the gavel for the first time at a Federal Open Market Committee meeting. "The Fed is likely to keep its options open suggesting that today's Fed speak is likely to allow the U.S. dollar to rebound somewhat. However, we suggest selling into dollar strength," said currency analysts from BNP Paribas. At 10 a.m. Eastern, currency traders will also review leading indicators for February, with economists polled by MarketWatch expecting an unchanged reading after a 1.1% rise in January. In early New York trading, the dollar was last down 0.06% at 115.84 yen, while the euro was down 0.2% at $1.2176.

[UpInArms]

13. U.S. Treasuries edge lower, Bernanke speech eyed

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-03-20T070227Z_01_T88628_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-TREASURIES-ASIA.XML

TOKYO, March 20 (Reuters) - Short-term U.S. Treasury prices edged lower in Asia on Monday as some investors grew wary that Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke may point to more interest rate rises by the central bank in a speech later in the day.

Treasury yields dipped last week when a bag of soft economic data, including a surprisingly modest reading for consumer prices, raised speculation that an expected rate rise by the Fed at the end of March may not be followed by further hikes.

But some traders said they were wary that yields could spring back higher if Fed officials this week showed confidence in the U.S. economy and suggested they may be concerned enough about inflation to keep pushing rates to 5 percent and beyond.

"I think the drift lower in yields last week will be pretty quickly reversed unless we really do get a clear sign that the Fed will stop after raising rates this month," said a U.S. Treasuries trader at a Japanese bank in Tokyo.

...more...

[UpInArms]

14. Fed sees soft economic landing, end to rate increases

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-03-19T161937Z_01_N19237313_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-ANALYSIS.XML

WASHINGTON, March 19 (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve officials are set to raise interest rates later this month, but expect the economy to settle into a sustainable pace without borrowing costs going much higher, recent comments from policy-makers suggest.

The U.S. central bank has increased benchmark overnight rates at each of its past 14 policy meetings dating to June 2004, pushing them to 4.5 percent from a bargain 1 percent.

While another quarter-point boost is seen as certain at the March 27-28 meeting of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee -- the first to be led by new Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke -- officials have made it clear they are less sure what the future will bring.

Fed policy-makers have said rates appear close to where they need to be given the economic outlook, suggesting that the 20-month tightening campaign is nearing an end.

But they have also have warned that much depends on incoming economic data, and that some further tightening might be appropriate.

<snip>

After growing at a sluggish 1.8 percent rate in the fourth quarter, the U.S. economy entered the new year firing on all cylinders as warm weather brought shoppers out in droves. Some economists expect first-quarter growth to top 5 percent.

...more...

I want some of that :smoke: !

[wordpix2]

32. they're raising rates AGAIN? Geesh, way to kill real estate market

and more

[InsultComicDog]

40. Good thing my HELOC is mostly paid down

[UpInArms]

27. Treasury Yield Curve Inverts Again

10:18 AM ET 3/20/06 <$TNX> 10-YR YIELD AT 4.648%; 2-YR YIELD AT 4.653%

10:17 AM ET 3/20/06 <$TNX> TREASURY YIELD CURVE INVERTS AGAIN

[UpInArms]

42. Minehan: Fed could be wrong about benign housing slowdown

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BCF48DF8C%2D64A6%2D4F03%2D984A%2D5B0E5CC10512%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- One of the greatest risks to the U.S. economy is a possible sharp slowdown in the housing market, said Boston Federal Reserve President Cathy Minehan. Speaking to the New England Realtors Conference, Minehan said, "It makes sense to worry" about the impact on economy of declining construction and a drop in household wealth. The Fed's forecast assumes a flattening of home prices and a decline in construction. "Clearly, however, we could be wrong on the magnitudes," she said. "Real estate prices could actually decline." Another risk lies to the upside: "Stronger growth and somewhat higher inflation are well within the realm of possibility as well.

"And, then again, I could just be talking out of my ass", she said.

[AnneD]

49. Alright

:thumbsup: my kinda Fed Reserve President "and then again, I could just be talking out of my ass....":thumbsup: Two bucks says she is NOT a surprised economist.:smoke:

[UpInArms]

46. Printing Press Set on "HIGH": Treasury increasing the supply of 4-wk bills

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B515E5B24%2D1D1A%2D4359%2DABE0%2D419D27DF5F62%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The Treasury Department is sharply increasing its supply of 4-week bills by selling $26 billion of the bills on Tuesday. That's up from $18 billion last week. The offering is expected to raise $7 billion in new cash.

[UpInArms]

54. U.S. Treasury leaves currency report timing vague

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-03-20T171110Z_01_WAT005107_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-TREASURY-CHINA-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, March 20 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury spokesman Tony Fratto on Monday declined to say precisely when Treasury will release its semi-annual currency report, which lawmakers and markets are watching keenly for its treatment of China.

"It'll be released this spring," Fratto told a briefing, adding: "We're trying to emphasize quality over timeliness."

hmmm...

http://www.ustreas.gov/offices/international-affairs/economic-exchange-rates/authorizing-statute.pdf

SEC.3005. REPORTING REQUIREMENTS.
(a) Reports Required.– In furtherance of the purpose of this
title, the Secretary, after consultation with the Chairman of the
Board, shall submit to the Committee on Banking, Finance and
Urban Affairs of the House of Representatives and the
Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs of the
Senate, on or before October 15 each year, a written report on
international economic policy, including exchange rate policy.

The Secretary shall provide a written update of developments
six months after the initial report. In addition, the Secretary
shall appear, if requested, before both committees to provide
testimony on these reports.
(b) CONTENTS OF REPORT.–Each report submitted under
subsection (a) shall contain–
(1) an analysis of currency market developments and the
relationship between the United States dollar and the
currencies of our major trade competitors;
(2) an evaluation of the factors in the United States and
other economies that underline conditions in the
currency markets, including developments in bilateral
trade and capital flows;
(3) a description of currency intervention or other actions
undertaken to adjust the actual exchange rate of the
dollar;
(4) an assessment of the impact of the exchange rate of the
United States dollar on –
(A) the ability of the United States to maintain a more
appropriate and sustainable balance in its current
account and merchandise trade account;
(B) production, employment, and noninflationary
growth in the United States;
(C) the international competitive performance of
United States industries and the external
indebtedness of the United States;

...more...

That report is due April 15

[UpInArms]

55. Dog and Pony Show: SnowJob to tout foreign investment in U.S. Thursday

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BD436D8C8%2D3334%2D411E%2D8987%2D500ABF0AD8E2%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow will speak about the importance of foreign investment in the U.S. in a speech Thursday at a Volvo Powertrain North America plant in Maryland, the Treasury said Monday. Snow's speech comes after a Dubai-based company said it would sell its U.S. port operations to a U.S. buyer. The deal, initially supported by a Treasury-led panel, sparked an outcry in Congress. Treasury spokesman Tony Fratto said Monday the government is waiting to hear who the company will select as its buyer. The case is still under review, he said.

[UpInArms]

65. Interest rates mixed in Treasury auction

http://www.modbee.com/24hour/business/story/3235307p-11979175c.html

WASHINGTON (AP) - Interest rates on short-term Treasury bills were mixed in Monday's auction with three-month bills rising to the highest level in five years while the rate on six-month bills edged down slightly.

The Treasury Department auctioned $20 billion in three-month bills at a discount rate of 4.545 percent, up from 4.510 percent last week. Another $17 billion in six-month bills was auctioned at a discount rate of 4.610 percent, down from 4.645 percent last week.

The three-month rate was the highest since these bills averaged 4.700 percent on March 5, 2001. The six-month rate was the lowest since they averaged 4.600 percent two weeks ago.

...more...

[UpInArms]

16. Dell to double its staff in India by 2009

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8GFA0101.htm?campaign_id=rss_full_topix_bwdaily&chan=db

MAR. 20 7:28 A.M. ET Dell Inc. plans to double the number of its employees in India to 20,000 in three years, Chairman Michael Dell said Monday, in what appeared to be moves by the world's largest personal computer maker to beef up its presence in one of the world's fastest growing markets.

Although most of the new hiring will be made at the company's call centers, there will also be substantial recruitment at the its product testing center and a possible manufacturing plant.

The Round Rock, Texas-based company currently operates four call centers in India, a product testing center for corporate customers and a global software development center. Some 10,000 people are employed at these facilities.

<snip>

Scores of Western companies have been cutting costs by shifting software development, engineering design and routine office functions to countries such as India, where English-speaking workers are plentiful and wages are low.

<snip>

The company is also looking to set up a manufacturing center in India, a move that could help boost the sale of Dell computers here.

...more...

[UpInArms]

17. Zurich American Insurance to pay $171M for bid-rigging and price-fixing

http://cbs13.com/business/local_story_078193209.html

(AP) DALLAS Zurich American Insurance Co. has agreed to pay $171 million in a deal with nine states to settle allegations of bid-rigging and price-fixing in the commercial insurance market, state officials said Sunday.

With the settlement, policyholders in the nine states will receive more than $150 million in refunds, the attorneys general in Texas and Massachusetts said Sunday.

The U.S. unit of Zurich Financial Services will pay at least $20 million in investigative costs to the states, Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott's office said in a statement.

The settlement is the latest in a broad investigation by state authorities into the practice of "contingent commissions" insurers paid brokers. Regulators say the commissions were part of a scheme between the companies and brokers to inflate premiums and overcharge commercial policyholders.

The states in the Zurich settlement are: California, Florida, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Texas and West Virginia.

<snip>

Marsh & McLennan Cos. Inc., the nation's largest insurance broker, agreed in January 2005 to pay $850 million in restitution to settle a New York state investigation into bid-rigging, price-fixing and the use of hidden incentive fees. Marsh publicly apologized for "shameful" and "unlawful" conduct.

...more...

[ozymandius]

19. pre-open blather

08:59 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0. Futures trade continues to reflect some carryover momentum, and the cash market remains poised to open higher. There is just one item on today's economic calendar; the February Leading Indicators report will be released at 10:00 ET, but it's not expected to have much effect on trade. Investors await Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech tonight at the Economics Club of New York, ahead of the FOMC's policy decision next Tuesday. Additionally, the market awaits fiscal Q3 earnings results from Oracle (ORCL) after today's closing bell.

08:27 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.5. Futures trade continues to point towards a higher start for stocks. At this point, traders still have little market-moving corporate news with which to contend. Early reports include news that General Motors (GM) and the UAW may be nearing an early retirement deal, Wal-Mart (WMT) plans to ramp up expansion plans in China, Dell (DELL) plans to double its staff in India by 2009, and Michaels Stores (MIK) may put itself up for sale. Also, reports indicate that Prudential PLC (PUK) has rejected a near $30 billion takeover bid from rival Aviva PLC.

[UpInArms]

20. Accountants face grilling in Enron trial

http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/mld/myrtlebeachonline/business/14141686.htm

HOUSTON - Lawyers for Enron Corp. founder Kenneth Lay and former CEO Jeffrey Skilling have repeatedly grilled prosecution witnesses in their fraud and conspiracy trial on whether they have the expertise to decry accounting decisions as fraudulent moves to manipulate earnings. Now they can grill a couple of the very outside accountants who signed off on Enron's books.

On deck to kick off the eighth week of the trial Monday are two former Arthur Andersen LLP accountants who were among more than 100 assigned to the firm's once-lucrative Enron account.

Prosecutors said they expect to call former Andersen accountants Thomas Bauer and John R. Sult to the witness stand. Bauer oversaw books for Enron North America, the energy company's profitable trading arm. Sult oversaw accounting related to Wessex Water Ltd., a British water utility that was the cornerstone of Azurix, Enron's failed multibillion-dollar water business.

<snip>

Bauer was among several auditors disciplined shortly after Andersen disclosed in January 2002 that the firm had destroyed tons of Enron-related audit documents and e-mails in October and November 2001 as the Securities and Exchange Commission began investigating the energy company's finances.

During Andersen's obstruction of justice trial in 2002, Bauer invoked his Fifth Amendment right not to testify.

...more...

[UpInArms]

21. Typical U.S. family is shy on savings

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2177227

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/3732378.html

excerpt:

With about $3,800 in the bank, no one has a retirement account. Mutual funds? Stocks? Bonds? Nope.

The house is worth $160,000, but the family owes $95,000 on it to the bank.

The breadwinners make more than $43,000 a year but can't manage to pay off a $2,200 credit card balance.

That is the portrait of the median American household as painted by the Federal Reserve Board's 2004 Survey of Consumer Finances.

The survey, the latest figures available, does not distinguish between sizes of families, but it offers the most detailed look available of the balance sheet of U.S. households. The data comes from a survey of 4,522 American families.

<snip>

"These numbers are just so much worse than I would have thought. It's a real eye-opener," he said.

...more...

[54anickel]

23. This guy is surprised? Where the hell did he think the "wealth" he

manages for his clients was coming from? The middle-class has been getting hollowed out for years as the good paying jobs head overseas for the labor savings that has been expanding his clients portfolios. We have become 2 Americas of the have mores and the have nots. Duh?!

[AnneD]

31. Another surprised economist...

:eyes: Every now an then I think...am I crazy, do I have a cloud hanging over me. Why am I so down on the market-I mean, it's doing great. The reports are rosey. Why am I so pessimistic. I'am starting to sound like Eyore to all my friends....But then, I read a report like this and I know I am not crazy. Thanks for the reality check 54anickel. I missed this thread. I went through graph withdrawal...it was horrible.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

50. Join The Crazy Club.

Come on in, the water's kind of cold, but you get used to it.

[wordpix2]

34. he's in bubble in McLean, VA---one of wealthiest towns in USA--like *

These people don't live in realtiy. They're born wealthy, they go to private schools, they see wealthy clients. They have no idea how the other "half" (but it's more than half) lives.

[UpInArms]

36. can I amend you statement?

They have no idea how the other "half" (but it's more than half) survives.

[InkAddict]

39. I'm so relieved that we're "typical"

Here I thought we were slipping beyond the curve, but I'm not surpirized, just outraged, that the interviewee was bowled over by the stats. The "haves" don't worry their beautiful minds about the problems of middle-class America unless there's a fee in the fix for them.

The "typical" American family is one who once had some savings and/or retirement accounts, probably worked in a unionized manufacturing shop or IT, and since the late 80s has been outsourced, downsized, rightsized, merged and gouged into just the belt-tightening he's urged to no avail.

Witness, within months of becoming eligible for job benefits such as 401Ka or retirement savings, if the breadwinner was lucky enough to find a job with those benefits, employers were quick to send the employee packing, many times with the added insult of training the new "cheapies" who could barely speak English before they left. Add in the fact that many of these typical families are sandwiched between the needs of college students that loans don't cover/reduced financial aid and chronically ill parents who were just not sufficiently educated as investors in anything, not CDs, mutual funds, real estate, collectibles--ah, yes, they lived through the depression excuse!

So, what's the fix??? The home of 20 years has been rented out as it can't quickly be sold due to being redlined out by the racist polorization in the area and "aren't you going to paint everything white before you sell - NOT!" Nor can one refinance a mortgage (adjustable or not) without employment-who makes loans like that? Now, about those foreclosures????The family has split-up and no longer lives together weekdays to avoid the commuter costs (of gasoline) of a new job in a distant city). The windows have been wrapped and a space heater purchased to lessen cold-weather utility bills. Mom now trusts daughter for hair cuts, and Dad's potato soup is the bomb! What's that you say--just when the light appears at the end of the tunnel, the employer of the lesser wage-earner in this typical family has cut hours and now makes that employee pay for health-care. This employee didn't lose their job - it's just now worth about 50% less in disposable dollars to the "typical" family. How about a getting second or third job at a call center or Wallyworld? Yuppers, your taxes have just gone up into the next two higher tax brackets paying for illegal pre-emptive wars, no-bid contracts, and lobbyist favors. Im also hearing that some corporate offices resemble flea markets with all the "crafts" being sold under the table, candles, knitted goods, soaps, birdhouses, jewelry and "services" offered, odd-job hauling in the old SUV/pick-up, car detailing. Bet there's some that have slipped into less lawful enterprises too.

I noticed that, along w/his amazement, interviewee proposed absolutely no solutions except for more belt tightening. He's truly been blinded by the Right - you just can't save imaginary disposable-income dollars: further tightening then results in starving, freezing, ill-health caused by lack of personal hygiene and grooming, etc... The minute one had savings, it was legislated, stolen, and/or outsourced away! Whole industries and families have been dessimated by corporations jumping on the bandwagon of outsourcing -- shall we now talk about CEOs salaries and perks?

[UpInArms]

41. didn't you see where the Bank of America CEO "only" got $22 Million

for a salary - instead of the $22.7 Million that he got last year!

Those CEOs are losing out in this economy too! :sarcasm:

[54anickel]

47. Yep, the interviewee's answer is a sit down lecture. Nevermind how

some of these people got into this predictiment. He just assumes they've all been careless and living beyond their means. Many were living well within their means, then the "recession" hit, their good paying jobs lost. But they hung in there using their savings and credit cards to make ends meet because they made the mistake of believing Greenspin and Bushco that we were right on the cusp of recovering and the job market would pick up any day now.

Now we hear of all the jobs being created, but they don't bother to go into great detail of what sort of wages are in those new jobs compared to what was lost. Many IT professionals lucky enough to find another job in the same field also found themselves facing a huge pay-cut, meanwhile the cost of surviving continues to climb.

Most people living today did not experience the depression, they've only known increasingly better times for the last couple of generations, so of course people hold on to the hope that things turning around. If I can just make ends meet for a little bit longer.....

[rfranklin]

22. This morning on MSNBC or Bloomberg: P/Es stink...

At this point in a rally or recovery the P/Es should be about 10 according to historical data. They are now at 18. That means "investors" are paying way too much for the returns they are getting. It is also reminiscent of the last bubble when P/Es were extraordinarily low. Any opinions?

[AnneD]

35. I can't speak for the others....

but I haven't bought in to this 'recovery'. It is built on a foundation of sand (reports worthy of Rose E Scenario). One strong wave and it will be gone, leaving a bunch of surprised economists scratching some part of their anatomy....

[Roland99]

51. I think it's rather obvious that a crash/major correction is coming.

NASDAQ and S&P500 are not sharing in the rise the Dow has seen. People are flocking to security and it's inflating prices.

[UpInArms]

29. Squal-Mart doing major China expansion - to hire 150,000 in China

10:30 AM ET 3/20/06 WAL-MART SAYS IT WILL HIRE 150,000 IN CHINA

[UpInArms]

30. Following the money to China - Tiffany to open 2 stores in China

10:42 AM ET 3/20/06 TIFFANY SHARES DOWN 15C TO $39

10:41 AM ET 3/20/06 TIFFANY TO OPEN 2 STORES IN CHINA IN 2006

10:41 AM ET 3/20/06 TIFFANY TO OPEN STORES IN BEIJING, SHANGHAI IN 2006

[Roland99]

59. Shanghai is booming, bay-bee!

This is what I emailed to someone after I had a trip over there last year:


well...if one has some connections, I could see being able to make a name for one's self in any number of ways. Shanghai has long been marching to a slightly different beat than the rest of China (save Hong Kong but that wasn't part of China until just recently). It's been called the Paris of the Orient. Now, here are some key areas I see that could be explored, exploited, utilized, whatever.


Commercial Construction

Shanghai is currently set to quadruple the number of skyscrapers (I believe that's buildings 15-stories or higher) within the next 20-25 years (simply astounding, I know). Shanghai already has more "skyscrapers" than New York City. Imagine New York City quadrupling in the next two to three decades.

Anyone with mechanical engineering, civil engineering, architecture, electrical, security, etc. resources (management, design, construction) could probably find some way to become a part of that. We saw at least two dozen buildings (pretty much at least 20 stories tall) under construction. I'll tell ya, there's nothing quite like seeing 50-story tall scaffolding made of BAMBOO! Amazing!

One problem with all of the construction is the pumping of groundwater out is turning Shanghai into a New Orleans of the Orient. There's already talk of putting restrictions on building and also of building a levee system. Not sure how much the Chinese government is going to be involved in that but that will be a tremendous civil engineering project.


Residential Construction

Most people appear to live in high-rise structures and from what I could tell, not many had central A/C (just about every tall residential building had window A/C units everywhere (plus some clothes hanging out on lines and balconies and such) The newer ones in the Pudong section were like anything in Manhattan. Beautiful, tall buildings with top-notch, up-to-date electronics, security, etc. Our L.A. contact has one on the 59th floor of building #8 in the development that's about 95% complete. The day he left back to the US, he was offered US$1.5 million for it! It's only 1200 sq. ft. but it's pretty damn nice.

However, with the ever-increasing Western influence (from Westerners - Americans), there's a boom now in McMansion-style construction. One of the people we dealt with at the airport told us it's a status symbol to own some land and build a large home on it (saw some magazines which looked like most any New Homes Guide here in the states).

I see a grand opportunity for something like Dominion Homes, Ball Homes (I'm using names I know from this area) that develop subdivision after subdivision with their dozen or so different home plans on cookie-cutter lots. An enterprising person could definitely make some headway there.


Restaurants

I don't think this even needs to be said but 17 million people need to eat, eh? KFCs are like Starbucks here. Everywhere. Papa Johns is now developing a presence (nice to see as both of those are Louisville-based companies!) Franchising is probably no different from here but there's more room to expand a franchise there. The US is rather saturated.


Cars

Buick, from what I saw, is the #2 car of choice in Shanghai. They told us owning a Buick is another type of status symbol. Buick doesn't have the old-lady land-yacht stigma that it does here and, to be honest, the Buicks there are sharper-looking and sportier-looking. They have a nice compact that looks a lot like the Mazda 3 hatchback. Mercedes dealerships are expanding. There are Ferraris, Lambos, Rolls, etc., too.


Service

This is one area I didn't think much about while there but see some things now that I'm home. As the Western-influence spreads, it will take some time before Shanghai becomes a Hong Kong or a Paris or something. English is not that commonly spoken in most of the city. I'm glad the folks from the airport were chauffering us around. I'm sure it saved a lot of time and disappointment and frustration. I could see a niche for a concierge-type company to escort people around or perform typical daily duties for someone (as the personal shoppers common in large cities here). Or perhaps a company offering translators to incoming Western businesses or something.



But...that's a bird's eye view summary of my 2 weeks in Shanghai. Was quite interesting and I'm really glad I had the opportunity to go.

[AnneD]

62. Cool......

I had heard that Buick was a status symbol there. Also heard that for years Cross pens were big too. Starbucks is also big (in the land of tea drinkers-go figure). You can learn so much just by soaking it up. Young professionals are aquiring wealth so top end consumer goods will be a good sell. Affordable luxuries (a meal at McDonalds, Starbucks) will be popular. Good call on the private homes. That is a very high end item. Land will skyrocket, but that has always been true in that area. Don't they worry about all those window units off those buildings. I can just see them falling off and killing some unsuspecting pedestrian. The clothes lines are just like India. You can't see a building without them.
What a treat for you...I am pea green with envy.

[Roland99]

64. Yeah, saw quite a few Starbucks over there, too.

And every little market had tons of knock-off Cross pens. :)

[AnneD]

67. The Cross Pen thing

goes back to WWII...don't remember the reason, just one of those odd things you remember. I'm hell at trivial pursuit.

[UpInArms]

68. Thanks for that very excellent and interesting view, Roland99!

It appears that GE is going to be doing a lot of real estate development there

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BC00889D8%2D7F76%2D4047%2DB8EF%2D0C2968359D89%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

GE Real Estate sees residential development opportunity in China

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- GE Real Estate, a highly regarded opportunistic property investor, is jumping into the residential development market in China, where it expects returns to be three to four times higher than what it's fetching in the U.S.

GE Real Estate, a unit of General Electric Co.'s (GE) Commercial Finance section, is expected to announce later this week that it has formed the CITIC Capital Vanke China Property Development Fund, which will invest in developing properties in major Chinese markets - in particular, residential properties - where it sees a burgeoning demand for real estate.

"The Chinese government estimates that nearly 400 million people will move from the countryside to Chinese cities in the next 10 years," creating an enormous demand for both residential and commercial real estate development, said Michael Pralle, president and chief executive of GE Real Estate. "Those 400 million people will have to have housing and places to work."

<snip>

"The development margins are huge - 30% to 40%," said Pralle, which is far better than the 10% to 12% returns investors get on multifamily developments in the U.S.

<snip>

"In China today, there are between 800 million and 900 million farmers, and the Chinese Government recognizes that they don't need 800 or 900 million farmers - and most of these farmers are desperately poor," he said. The country is going through a transition period where poor people are leaving their farms to take up higher-paying jobs in major Chinese cities, and the economy is growing at 8% to 10% a year as part of its move toward a capitalist economy, he said.

...more...

[Roland99]

74. There's quite an influx of South Korean immigrants, too.

There are at least 300,000-400,000 immigrants from the last few years settling in Shanghai (mostly around the airport...er...Hongqiao airport, that is, not the biggie: Pudong)

Also, the people there said a lot of people left Hong Kong and came to Shanghai after the Chinese took control of Hong Kong.

[UpInArms]

37. 11:01 EST markets adrift with blather

Dow 11,278.85 -0.80 (-0.01%)
Nasdaq 2,308.61 +2.13 (+0.09%)
S&P 500 1,306.01 -1.24 (-0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 4.646 -0.28 (-0.60%)

NYSE Volume 616,478,000
Nasdaq Volume 694,025,000

11:00 am : Selling pressure has increased. Leadership is now limited to a 0.1% advance in the Technology sector, and the three major averages have retreated to the red. The price of crude oil futures has pulled back about 1.3% and is hovering just below the $62 per barrel mark. Natural gas, gasoline, and heating oil are also sharply lower. The extended price action is currently having little effect other than sparking a market-dragging drop in the Energy sector (-0.7%). The Financial sector is giving muscle to the market's decline. Despite the fact that Treasuries are improving (the 10-year is up eight ticks and down to a 4.64% yield), rate-sensitive areas are not faring well. Anticipation ahead of Bernanke's speech this evening and the FOMC meeting next Tuesday appears to be giving traders in those areas of the market a reason to consolidate some recent profits.DJ30 -15.61 NASDAQ -0.81 SP500 -2.96 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1578/1167/592.6 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1710/1271/333.8 mln

10:30 am : The major averages are hanging on to modest gains. Six sectors are presently levying losses that are working to offset the other four sectors' gains. Telecom (-0.9%) is faring worst. Qwest (Q 6.75 -0.19) and Alltel (AT 65.67 -0.89) are the particular laggards, following The New York Times' report that Verizon's (VZ 34.12 -0.29) CEO Ivan Seidenberg dismissed speculation that the company would acquire Qwest or Alltel. Instead, the article indicated that Verizon's top priority is to purchase the 45% stake of Verizon Wireless that Vodafone (VOD 22.35 -0.16) holds. The Materials sector (-0.6%) is also adding pressure. Commodities are trading in mixed fashion, but the sector is facing some wide-spread selling. DJ30 +11.21 NASDAQ +6.37 SP500 +0.21

[UpInArms]

38. Bank of America CEO's pay falls to $22 million

:nopity:

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-03-20T155907Z_01_N20257011_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-BANKOFAMERICA-COMPENSATION.XML

NEW YORK, March 20 (Reuters) - Bank of America Corp. (BAC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Monday said it had awarded Chief Executive Kenneth Lewis $22 million of compensation for 2005, down 3 percent from a year earlier, as the No. 2 U.S. bank's shares lagged its peers.

Lewis, 58, received a $1.5 million salary, a $5.65 million bonus, $11.7 million of restricted stock, $2.93 million of stock options and about $248,000 of other compensation, including the use of company aircraft, and tax and financial planning services.

For 2004, Lewis' compensation totaled $22.7 million, Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America said.

The bank disclosed the compensation in its proxy statement filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Bank of America shares fell 1.8 percent last year, lagging the Philadelphia KBW Bank Index <.BKX>, which fell 0.3 percent, and the S&P Financial index <.GSPF>, which rose 3.7 percent.

Lewis' pay is below the $23 million that Citigroup Inc. (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the largest U.S. bank, awarded Chief Executive Charles Prince, and above the $21.9 million that No. 5 bank Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) awarded Chief Executive Richard Kovacevich.

...more about overpaid blovians...

It somehow just doesn't make me want to :cry:

[AnneD]

56. I think the theme song for today is

My give a damn is busted.
Artist : Jo Dee Messina

<snip>
You can crawl back home
say you were wrong,
stand out in the yard
cry all night long.
Well go ahead and water my lawn.
My give a damn's busted.

(chorus)

I really wanna care,
I wanna feel somethin'
Let me dig a little deeper...
Nope...
Sorry...
Nothin'


You can say you've got issues.
You can say you're a victim.
It's all your parents fault,
After all you didn't pick em
Well maybe Oprah's got time to listen.
My give a damn's busted.

(*Well let me get this straight now)
Your therapist said
It was all just a phase
A product of the prozac
And your co-dependent ways
So uhh ... who's your enabler these days
My give a damn's busted.

<snip>

[wordpix2]

69. BoA shares fell nearly 2% and the guy's making a mere $22Mil? tut, tut

[54anickel]

57. Couple of interesting links at 321gold today

http://www.counterpunch.com/cockburn03182006.html

Three Years On

Where's the Resistance Here on the Home Front?

Three years into the war in Iraq and now about two out of three Americans are against it, as against about one out of fifty elected politicians. In Iraq 2,315 Americans
have died, and 17,100 wounded, many of them with limbs lost, some facing a lifetime in a wheel chair. Of the tens of thousands who have returned from combat to army bases
or civilian life here, around 2.5 per cent are suffering from severe post traumatic stress syndrome, powder kegs, a menace to themselves and their families. There will be
psychic as well as physical wreckage across America for years to come.

In Iraq, the Johns Hopkins study last September made an accounting of the full death toll wrought by the devastation of the US invasion and occupation. It concluded that
"about 100,000 excess deaths" (in fact 98,000) among men, women, and children had occurred in just under eighteen months. Violent deaths alone had soared twentyfold. But, as in
most wars, the bulk of the carnage was due to the indirect effects of the invasion, notably the breakdown of the Iraqi health system.

Re-working the Johns Hopkins study with the benefit of better techniques of statistical analysis Andrew Cockburn concluded here early in the New Year that on the basis of the
raw sample data compiled by Iraqis for the Johns Hopkins study, the true number of dead in Iraq in consequence of the war had probably hit around 180,000, with a possibility
that it had already reached as high as half a million. Of course all sets of numbers, whatever statistical analysis you accept, have been climbing steadily ever since.

This week the Pentagon announced it may be increasing its troop strength by a thousand or so.

Iraq itself is a disaster, teetering on the brink of full blown-civil war. Conditions of life in the capital and other major cities have steadily worsened across three years. As
a functioning state Iraq has collapsed, the ministers in its government hastening overseas as often as they can or, when home, looting public assets while never daring to venture
out of the green zone.

Mention of the "green zone", a bubble of corruption and delusion, takes us from Baghdad to Washington, and its green zone, secluded from reality, in which the Democrats now dwell.

more...



I found this report (pdf) both interesting and disturbing.

The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy

http://ksgnotes1.harvard.edu/Research/wpaper.nsf/rwp/RWP06-011/$File/rwp_06_011_walt.pdf

U.S. foreign policy shapes events in every corner of the globe.  Nowhere is this truer than in the Middle East, a region of recurring instability and enormous strategic
importance.  Most recently, the Bush Administration’s attempt to transform the region into a community of democracies has helped produce a resilient insurency in Iraq, a sharp rise in world oil prices, and terrorist bombings in Madrid, London, and Amman.   With so much at stake for so many, all countries need to understand the forces that 
drive U.S. Middle East policy.
 
 
The U.S. national interest should be the primary object of American foreign policy.   For the past several decades, however, and especially since the Six Day War in 1967, the 
centerpiece of U.S. Middle East policy has been its relationship with Israel.  The combination of unwavering U.S. support for Israel and the related effort to spread democracy 
throughout the region has inflamed Arab and Islamic opinion and eopardized U.S. security.
  
 
This situation has no equal in American political history.  Why has the United States been willing to set aside its own security in order to advance the interests of another 
state?  One might assume that the bond between the two countries is based on shared strategic interests or compelling moral imperativs.  As we show below, however, neither of 
those explanations can account for the remarkable level of material and diplomatic support that the United States povides to Israel.
   
 
Instead, the overall thrust of U.S. policy in the region is due almost entirely to U.S. domestic politics, and especially to the activities of the “Israel Lobby.” Other special 
interest groups have managed to skew U.S. foreign policy in directions they favored, but no lobby has managed to divert U.S. foreign policy as far from what the American 
national interest would otherwise suggest, while simultaneously convincing Americans that U.S. and Israeli interests are essentially identical.1   
 
In the pages that follow, we describe how the Lobby has accomplished this feat, and how its activities have shaped America’s actions in this critical region.  Given the
strategic importance of the Middle East and its potential impact on others, both Americans and non-Americans need to understand and address the Lobby’s influence on U.S. policy.  

more...

[54anickel]

58. Credit derivatives rocked by loss at GM finance arm

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/03/18/cngm18.xml&menuId=242&sSheet=/money/2006/03/18/ixcitytop.html

The discovery of huge hidden losses at General Motors's finance arm have raised fresh fears of bankruptcy at the world's biggest carmaker, sending tremors through the credit derivatives markets.

The struggling group asked for a filing delay after admitting to an extra $2bn (£1.1bn) in accounting errors at its finance arm GMAC, raising total losses last year to $10.6bn. The news triggered a sharp spike in the cost of default insurance on GMAC's bonds, rising 75 basis points overnight.

Car-parts supplier Dana Corporation defaulted last week on $2.5bn of debt, following Delphi and Tower Automotive last year.

Concern that General Motors may now be sliding towards the brink - linked to an estimated $200bn in credit derivatives - has renewed fears that the over-heated credit swap market could seize up in a crisis.

Global investors are already jittery after the crash of the Icelandic krona, which sparked flight from hot assets as far afield as Hungary, Turkey and New Zealand.

more...

[54anickel]

60. India convertibility move aims to lure foreign cash

http://in.today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2006-03-20T234436Z_01_NOOTR_RTRJONC_0_India-241456-1.xml&archived=False

MUMBAI (Reuters) - The Indian government's keenness to move towards greater capital account convertibility is driven by a desire to attract more foreign money into the country to keep up its rapid pace of growth, analysts said on Monday.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, architect of India's economic reforms in the early 1990s, sprang a surprise on Mumbai's business community at the weekend by announcing on a visit to the financial hub that fuller convertibility had its merits.

The central bank wasted no time in shifting into gear, announcing a six-person committee on Monday to kick off the process and produce a road map by July 31 this year.

Analysts said the plan fed into the communist-backed government's ambitions on several fronts and a move towards fuller convertibility was a prime step in achieving its target of 10 percent annual economic growth to cut poverty.

more...

[ozymandius]

61. witching hour update

3:07
Dow 11,273.33 -6.32 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,312.44 +5.96 (+0.26%)
S&P 500 1,305.07 -2.18 (-0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 46.56 -0.18 (-0.39%)
NYSE Volume 1,514,230,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,581,008,000

3:00 pm : Over the past half an hour, little has changed within the equity market. The indices continue to trade on both sides of the unchanged market. As mentioned before, the significant declines in prices across the energy complex were not met with much buying interest. Transportation, though, is one area that appears to have taken a bullish, albeit modestly bullish, cue. The Dow Jones Transportation Average is currently up 0.3%. Continental Airlines (CAL) and AMR Corp. (AMR 28.13 +1.13) are the average's best performers, and those stocks are behind the airline industry's outperformance today. DJ30 -8.96 NASDAQ +5.46 SP500 -2.41 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1576/1407/1.52 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1937/1303/1.02 bln

2:30 pm : Going into the close of commodity trade, prices across the energy complex remain sharply lower. Crude oil is down 3.5% and trading at $60.60 per barrel; natural gas, gasoline, and heating oil have each declined in excess of 2% today. The price action's most noticeable effect continues to be on the Energy sector. At this point, it's down 1.8%. Selling is pervasive and each of the S&P 500's energy issues are booking losses. Even BJ Services (BJS 31.39 -1.41), which reaffirmed 20-25% top line growth and 45-52% EPS growth for FY06, is trending lower. We remain bullish on the sector, due to three main themes: tight market conditions, geopolitical risks, and positive underlying fundamentals. BJS, as a side note, is one of our preferred Energy stocks, and it's one of our recommended holdings for active investors.DJ30 -7.52 NASDAQ +5.91 SP500 -2.86 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1544/1443/1.41 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1818/1387/927.1 mln

[UpInArms]

63. Appelate court overturns Quattrone conviction

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B2C678922%2D199A%2D41B3%2DA65A%2DABC3D7C26333%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- A federal appeals court on Monday threw out the conviction of former investment banker Frank Quattrone, according to the U.S. Attorney's Office. The 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals faulted the jury instructions in the case. Quattrone, a former technology banker with Credit Suisse First Boston, was sentenced to 18 months for obstruction of justice. The Department of Justice was investigating whether CSFB was requiring kickbacks for shares in hot initial public offerings of technology companies. Quattrone has been free on appeal.

here's the past guilty verdict:

Jury finds former star tech banker guilty of obstructing justice, witness tampering while at CSFB.

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Frank Quattrone, the former investment banker who helped take some of the hottest names of the tech boom public, was found guilty Monday in his retrial on charges of obstructing justice and witnessing tampering.

The jury of six men and six women took two days to find the ex-Credit Suisse First Boston investment banker guilty of all three counts against him.

The jurors found that Quattrone tried to block investigations by regulators and a grand jury when he forwarded an e-mail in late 2000 urging colleagues to "clean-up" their files.

The decision came after Quattrone's first trial ended in a hung jury in October, with jurors reportedly deadlocked on the charges against the ex-investment banker, who helped bringing Netscape Communications, Amazon.com and dozens of other companies public.

<snip>

But, by late 2000, the market for hot stock offerings had dried up and investigators began looking at whether shares of the most popular initial public offerings had been doled out to hedge funds by CSFB in exchange for kickbacks.

...more...

[UpInArms]

66. With America heavily in debt, foreign investors snap up assets

http://www.registerguard.com/news/2006/03/20/printable/a1.americaforsale.0320.Py43bK23.phtml?section=nation_world

WASHINGTON - The furor over efforts by an Arab company to buy U.S. port operations has focused attention on a little noticed economic fact of life: America increasingly is foreign-owned.

<snip>

The United States must borrow more than $2 billion per day from foreigners to finance its huge trade deficits. In 2005, for example, there was a record deficit of $805 billion in the current account, the broadest measure of trade.

<snip>

Foreigners already own half of the U.S. government's publicly traded debt. As of January, some $2.19 trillion in Treasury securities was in the hands of central banks, including China and Japan, and private investors abroad.

At the end of 2004, the total foreign direct investment in this country - actual factories, office buildings and other tangible assets as opposed to stocks and bonds - came to $1.53 trillion, 8.2 percent more than in 2003.

<snip>

``That strikes me as scary,'' Wyss said. ``When you make yourself so dependent on inflows of capital from the rest of the world, the question is what happens if the inflows slow down.''

...more...

[wordpix2]

70. oil down 4%---do you think with the US debt financed by Asia/Mideast, that

oil sheiks are deliberately keeping oil price down? After all, they have a lot of money invested in America. I would imagine that includes NYSE, Nasdaq. It wouldn't benefit them to have our economy fall totally apart if they're heavily invested in the markets. Even if they're not that heavily invested, they know Americans are and it will be difficult to pay foreign creditors back if our economy tanks.

I'm not an economist but if I loaned someone a lot of money, I would want that person to be doing well in business so he could pay me back. I wouldn't want to raise the price of a commodity that I controlled and he needed to the point that his business crashed and he couldn't pay back the loan with interest.

[UpInArms]

71. that was the reasoning for a long time

that OPEC didn't want to "bankrupt" the consumers of their products.

I do believe that China is an emerging consumer nation and their pockets are a bit deeper and there is that possibility that the ME is not just in looove with the USoA anymore.

So, if you have another buyer for your product and you decide you might like them better than the ones that keep coming over to your part of the world and blowing people up....

hmmmm.....

just rambling :eyes:

[InkAddict]

73. but, for everything else, there's MasterCard

"I'm not an economist but if I loaned someone a lot of money, I would want that person to be doing well in business so he could pay me back. I wouldn't want to raise the price of a commodity that I controlled and he needed to the point that his business crashed and he couldn't pay back the loan with interest."

Amerikan policymakers refuse to put a halt to the greed and corruption of their own, sky-hi CEO salaries/perks, outsourcing, price-fixing monopolistic utilities, whole areas of business, i.e., quality deficient products of American manufacturing, technology, and excellence in customer service. AMERICA, all sold out!

[UpInArms]

72. closing numbers and blather

Dow 11,274.53 -5.12 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,314.11 +7.63 (+0.33%)
S&P 500 1,305.08 -2.17 (-0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.656 -0.18 (-0.39%)

NYSE Volume 1,950,440,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,987,801,000

On the heels of last week's strong performance, Monday's market took a breather. The major averages traded in mixed, tightly range-bound fashion for most of the session, and they kept within close proximity of the unchanged mark. The Dow and S&P booked modest losses, while the Nasdaq registered a moderate gain.

The absence of a fresh catalyst helped halt the market's advance. For a Merger Monday, the M&A front was a light one. Reports were limited to a possible sale of Michaels Stores (MIK 38.35 +4.39) and Prudential PLC's (PUK 26.22 +2.27) rejection of Aviva PLC's takeover offer. Some M&A related news that did spur action was Verizon's (VZ 34.22 -0.19) indication that it does not intend to purchase Qwest (Q 6.79 -0.15) or Alltel (AT 65.45 -1.11). The company asserted that buying Vodafone's (VOD 22.35 -0.16) 45% stake in Verizon Wireless is its priority. Qwest and Alltel did not fare well, and their declines were behind the Telecom sector's 0.7% fall.

Overall, the corporate front was relatively uneventful. Amongst the most attention-grabbing were reports of Wal-Mart's (WMT 47.76 +1.07) plans for its ramped-up Chinese expansion, and General Motors (GM 20.85 -0.28) nearing a deal with the UAW. Wal-Mart helped the Consumer Staples sector (+0.3%) maintain positive footing. Healthcare (+0.2%), another defensive area of the market, demonstrated relative strength today. Both sectors had lagged during last week's broad-based rally, but enjoyed some renewed (albeit modest) buying interest today. A pair of pharmaceuticals received some added attention: Eli Lily (LLY 57.42 +0.33) rose following Barron's positive feature of the stock, and Schering-Plough (SGP 19.33 +0.85) enjoyed an analyst upgrade and announced an exclusive collaboration and licensing agreement with P.T.C Therapeutics.

Following their sharp pullbacks on Friday, prices across the energy fell significantly. Crude led the decline and dropped close to 4%. The declines have come alongside reports that inventory is at seven-year highs and following OPEC's reduced demand forecast. However, geopolitical concerns should continue to support prices. We remain bullish on the sector for that reason, as well as on account of tight market conditions and underlying fundamentals. BJ Services' (BJS 31.55 -1.25) reiterated guidance spoke to those points today. The company, which is a suggested holding in our portfolio for active investors, reaffirmed expectations for 20-25% top line growth and 45-52% EPS growth for FY06. Due to today's energy price action, selling across the sector was pervasive and took even that stock lower. The Energy sector levied a market-dragging 1.7% loss.

Despite some continued improvement within the Treasury market, rate-sensitive areas did not take a bullish cue. Instead, they experienced some consolidation of last week's solid gains. The Financial sector recovered just before the bell, but it closed at the flat line and did little to boost the market. Utilities fell 1.2%, and homebuilders were weak across the board. Some caution ahead of this week's housing data added to the latter area's decline. In a broader sense, anticipation of a few key items contributed to the market's performance today. This evening, Fed Chairman Bernanke will speak to the Economic Club of New York. Investors are anxious to gain insight into monetary policy, but, in our view, it is highly unlikely that the Chairman will provide any clues. The FOMC's policy decision will be announced next Tuesday. We continue to expect two more rate hikes, and we believe that the possibility of a third should not be dismissed. Anticipation ahead of tomorrow's Producer Price Index also contributed to the market's cautious stance. It's apt to be somewhat anticlimactic, though, because the Consumer Price Index has already been released. With respect to today's economic calendar, Leading Indicators was the only item. The data checked in relatively in-line with expectations, and had little effect on the stock and bond markets.

Aside from the Consumer Staples and Healthcare sectors, Technology (+0.4%) was another area that managed to sustain a gain. Particular pockets of strength included Yahoo, Oracle, and Google. Yahoo (YHOO 30.44 +0.37) was named Piper Jaffray's internet stock pick of the week, Oracle (ORCL 13.72 +0.12) attracted buyers ahead of its earnings report, and a federal judge ruled that Google (GOOG 348.19 +8.40) does not have to turn over consumer search data to the DoJ. Additionally, a rebound in semiconductors lent muscle to the sector's, and the Nasdaq's, outperformance. DJ30 -5.12 NASDAQ +7.63 SP500 -2.17 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1508/1525/2.0 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1840/1441/1.41 bln