Times of London: NYC, London, Miami Underwater by 2100--MAPS

[autorank]

Bush Supporters, Republicans in general, and all those who mocked the environmental movement, please accept the thanks of all of us who care about our culture and grand children: Thanks for being such idiots and/or liars; thanks for holding off any real action with your ‘paid experts’ who were always wrong; and thanks for ruining every thing. Question: Just how long have we really known this?

London 'under water by 2100' as Antarctica crumbles into the sea

By Mark Henderson, Science Correspondent March 24, 2006
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2100776,00.html


DOZENS of the world’s cities, including London and New York, could be flooded by the end of the century, according to research which suggests that global warming will increase sea levels more rapidly than was previously thought.

<snip>

The historical data, however, show that the last time that Greenland became this warm, the sea level rise generated by meltwater destabilised the Antarctic ice, leading to a much higher increase than can be explained by Arctic ice alone.

That means that the models of sea-level rise used to predict an increase of up to 3ft by 2100 may have significantly underestimated its ultimate extent, which could be as great as 20ft.

Such a rise would threaten cities such as

London, New York, Bombay and Tokyo. Large parts of the Netherlands, Bangladesh and Florida

would be inundated, and even smaller rises would flood extreme low-lying areas, such as several Pacific islands and New Orleans.

http://images.thetimes.co.uk/TGD/picture/0,,281997,00.jpg

[Newsjock]

1. But the GOP says the Rapture will come before that!

So why should we care! Only the UNSAVED will have to suffer! Puh-raise!

:P

[autorank]

2. Newsjock, thanks, I needed that. I knew this was a 'feel good" post

:toast: to our Ascension.

[RedEarth]

24. Sadly, for many repub's that's their line of twisted reasoning

[TedsGarage]

43. Sorry, Florida

You put the wrong guy in the White House!

[MiniMe]

52. Then why are they so worried about Social Security going bankrupt in 50 yr

[IndianaGreen]

3. Florida will go from a peninsula to an archipelago

and there won't be a Jesus or a Rapture to save us!

[Gman]

4. I wonder if this implies 5 feet in 25 years

which would put a lot of areas under water.

[autorank]

7. Excellent question. Here's another.

What are the correlates to this increase and intervening variables? Is the Russian tundra going to melt away? Will the gasses predicted emerge? Will they accelerate this trend? What about the atmosphere? When do we all get asthma? What impact does this have on the Rain Forest and how will deteriorating Rain Forest accelerate the polar melt?

Thanks "know nothings" for all this.

[skids]

18. Such systems are usually dominantly exponential.

So probably we are talking about the halfway point being 2070 or so.

That is unless there is already a lever point figured in there where it all comes rushing in at once.

But it seems a fair bet that Bush will go down as the administration that has lost the most
U.S. territory in terms of land area by the time they take the 2010 census :-(

[DLnyc]

20. * legacy: "First president to lose American territory"

Actually, we already lost a good piece of New Orleans. And Florida took a pretty good hit in 2004, as I recall. Oh well, it's been real.

[Gman]

22. That's what I was thinking

but I guess it depends how fast the exponential curve becomes steep.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

34. Oregon has been losing a lot of beaches to major erosion...

I wonder if it's already starting? :scared:

[tsuki]

41. Florida has also. They are renourishing (that an erosion

control line,) but it's not working. Interesting. We have lost at least 15 feet of beach since we moved here.

[NashVegas]

37. Probably More Exponential Than Linear

Would be my guess.

[hedgehog]

5. Forget rebuilding the Ninth ward

We really should be looking at whether we want to be putting the money into coastal cities at all. It's going to be a serious question, and it's coming right at us. We'll know a lot more by the end of the upcoming hurricane season, unfortunately

[pitohui]

49. what nonsense altho you bury it in your post

i like how you don't have the gonads to suggest abandoning our coasts in the subject line but instead prefer to "merely" abandon the most helpless among us

not to belabor the obvious but apparently i must so i'll say again--

no great nation has any wealth without its coastal cities, i suggest you take a look at a map sometime, every great city of california is on the coast, manhattan, boston, washington d.c. are on the coast, and many more

and guess what, blacks live in all of them, so the idea that we can just abandon the cities where a lot of black people live and solve all of "our" problems is not going to fly either

the mississippi river levees at uptown new orleans stood strong, the levees protecting the netherlands stand strong, we got the science, all we need to do is fork over the money and the elbow grease

sitting on our ass and going "oh woe" and giving up on the great source of wealth of our nation, the coasts and rivers, is not an option, if you have nothing to share but your negativity, then get out of the way of those who have something positive to share and don't try to drag them down

it may be that LOWER 9 and new orleans east should not be rebuilt, but to extend this to say that all coastal cities should not be protected is to say you would be happy to go back and live in a cave, without us you get no food deliveries, no coffee, no fuel drilled, refined, or transported, must i really have to go on?

we can't all live in vegas and deal blackjack to ea. other and continue as a great nation

you live w.out coasts and rivers as well as you live w.out a bloodstream

next question?

[madaboutharry]

6. And let us not forget how

the Bushies ridiculed Gore in 2000 over his environmentalism and concern over global warming.

[autorank]

17. Oh, lets not. That infuriated me. Now it's time to name the perps.

I think that would be a great DU project.

But good news, there's a major class action law firm which began taking names and tracking statements and affiliations for "experts" who questioned global warming. This started in about 2001. Their theory is this: when it hits, they will go after the corporations who funded the experts claiming a conspiracy to cause public doubt and delay any actions that could hurt the profit margins of the corporate sponsors.

Nice, huh. The corporations have no more paid spokesmen, let them eat litigation.

Great point.

[DLnyc]

21. Well, it's hit, as far as I can see.

Start the suit now, and beat the rush!

[drm604]

36. I've been thinking about that very thing.

It does seem like it could be argued to be some kind of criminal conspiracy. This would almost certainly include organizations like http://www.globalwarming.org (run by the Cooler Heads Coalition), and the Competitive Enterprise Institute as well as a number of others. Perhaps Frank Luntz and his company would also be included.

Proving and winning a case against someone for engaging in a "conspiracy to cause public doubt" would certainly seem to be an important precedent which could lead to a number of cases against entities that knowingly attempt to mislead the public in ways that are against the public interest.

I suspect it's one of those fuzzy borderline free speech issues that could go either way. It strikes me personally that if you can't scream "FIRE" in a crowded theater then you also cannot yell "NO FIRE" in a burning theater.

[NYC]

8. Time to buy a gondola.

I thought we had a smilie with a snorkel, but I guess not. :hi:

[hedgehog]

29. I thought the subways might have to go, but after all,

there already is a tunnel under the Hudson river. It's just a matter of moving the stations and sealing off the ventilation shafts. This is starting to look doable.

[NYC]

33. What are you saying? More tunnels?

Why not? I guess we'll be known as "The City of Tunnels".

[IndianaGreen]

9. Here is the website for Science Mag, where the reports are published

http://www.sciencemag.org/

Special Online Collection: Climate Change -- Breaking the Ice



In the 24 March 2006 Science: A special report on what's happening to the world's ice sheets. Recent research papers in Science and elsewhere are pointing to a major acceleration in the loss of mass from the world's great ice sheets. That means that the sensitivity of these giant storehouses of water to climate warming may be far greater than expected -- with potentially dire sea level implications during the next several centuries. Science examines the state of this research, and its sobering implications, in an Editorial, a special News Focus, Perspective articles, and cutting-edge research papers in this week's issue -- as well as several segments in our 24 March podcast. We've also included links to selected review and research articles on the topic from previous issues of Science over the past several years.

http://www.sciencemag.org/sciext/ice/

[IndianaGreen]

10. BBC: Sea rise could be 'catastrophic'

Sea rise could be 'catastrophic'
By Paul Rincon
BBC News science reporter

Dr Overpeck's team used computer models to simulate the climate 130,000 years ago. Because Earth was tilted slightly more than today on its axis, more solar radiation hit the northern latitudes, driving warming there.

The researchers found that melting of the Greenland ice sheet could have raised sea levels by 2-3.5m. But they also concluded that the rest could have come from the West Antarctic ice sheet.

It was not as warm here, but much of the ice sheet remains below sea level. This, they believe, allowed warming ocean waters along with rising sea levels to destabilise it.

"The simulated climate warming agreed well with the observed climate warming," Dr Overpeck told the BBC News website. "So, we had a firm estimate of how much warmth was necessary to cause that much sea level rise."

The researchers then compared this with simulations of future warming to learn how much sea level rise would be expected in future.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4834806.stm

[lovuian]

35. See that line the Earth was tilted

Earth was tilted slightly more than today on its axis, more solar radiation hit the northern latitudes, driving warming there.


Edgar Cayce predicted that was going to happen again... in this lifetime... and my gut feeling is its happening already!!!

[BadgerKid]

38. It's called "precession of the equinoxes"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precession#Precession_of_the_equinoxes

[anotherdrew]

40. looks like it's making it's move now

[mopinko]

11. hey, well, i win.

i go from 8 blocks from lake michigan to private beach. course, there is not a lot left of the rest of my fair city. downtown chicago would also be gone.

[htuttle]

12. The Great Lakes won't rise that much

They're already mostly above sea level.

But they will become DAMNED valuable as source of fresh water. We should think about building a fence...

[mopinko]

26. you got that, although

the worst caase scenario HAS to raise the levels. and it would not take much. when the lake has been high we have worried about lake shore drive. it has flooded a few times in my years here.
i am in the middle of the historic lake bed. (crappy gardening here!) i suppose they would build a sea wall, since there are so many rich people and corporations there.
but we are already constantly wrangling over access to water. there are quite a few suburbs that would pay dearly for a pipeline. several already have.

[Ouabache]

13. If anyone hears where all the nutburger Cubans in Miami are going

let me know, so I can be sure to avoid it. Those extreme anti-Catro Cubans are whackos.

[IndianaGreen]

14. They will blame Fidel for Little Havana becoming a coral reef

It is always Fidel's fault!

[barbaraann]

15. Dubai "World" may not survive.

http://www.findaproperty.com/story.aspx?storyid=6846

I am still stunned by the Palm islands and the World.

[autorank]

16. Neglect of Global Warming is the Greatest BETRAYAL in World History

That is the only way to put it, it is a betrayal beyond all others, beyond the ability to grasp any reason or justification.

Who would lie about this? Well, just look up the 'paid experts', the "quibblers and naysayers" on the global warming issue. Look up the organizations, the politicians, the supposed "objective" news casters who present the issue as though it has two sides.

They will never be ashamed because they have no shame.

They have BETRAYED every single person on the planet.

[fed-up]

19. I'd love to see who bought property out of future flood plain and when nt

[Delphinus]

23. I've said before,

on other posts about the environment, I don't think we can wait the ten years James Hansen is talking about, or wait for whatever reason they can come up with. We're at, or perhaps beyond, the tipping point right now.

And I agree with the poster who said forget about building the Ninth Ward. Why can't we (the collective we - I know we see) see and start planning for it? We simply have to start dealing with this NOW! I know the Earth will survive ... but will we make ourselves extinct because of our own short-sightedness?

[hedgehog]

25. Somehow I think Manhattan will survive

It's built on granite so it won't be sinking. Can't you just see all the gondolas and water taxis?

Besides - no one is going to give up a rent controlled apartment in this century or any other!

[autorank]

30. Manhattan, the new Veince!!!

My former home becomes a water theme park. Damn right on the rent controllec apartments.
I'm amazed that there are any left. Good for them. Buy floaties!

[XemaSab]

44. It'll be like NOLA

They'll build a levee around it and call it good.

[ldf]

27. geez louise, guys. it's no big problem.

lord pissypants says we will just "adapt".

:grr:

[hedgehog]

28. Several of my kids have webbed toes.

It's because one of my ancestors was a Selkie.

[autorank]

31. Personally, I have a plan to grow gills!

I'm cooperating, honest. With the program.

:scared:

[Robb]

39. LOL! For the rest of you, stately Dingbat Manor is open

...8K feet, all are welcome. Just indicate the greenhouse gasses you prefer to breathe, and c'mon in! :D

[President Kerry]

32. So I guess we all should buy a condo on the top floor or a highrise.

And this dumbass in the WH refuses to acknowledge global warming.
:grr:

[autorank]

46. ...and a hydroplane. You're all set for the apocolypse. Fuck *!!!

Kerry is my President.

Gore is my President.

* is our worst nightmare.

[hatrack]

42. Three little words that mean so much - "Positive Feedback Loop"

Republicans, too, will get to fully experience what this phrase means.

[Jamnt]

45. Forward looking Scientists have been saying

for years that we will have to take control of the planets weather. They have plans...here's a link:
http://cdiac2.esd.ornl.gov/index.html

I don't have an opinion whether this is good or not, but it does seem like we won't have a choice.

Does anyone know what percentage of the population will become refugees?

[pitohui]

48. not unless they have a crystal ball

you ask: Does anyone know what percentage of the population will become refugees?

it is not even known if this will happen at all, some models call for a paradoxical effect and a new ice age in the northern hemisphere which i presume would lock up plenty of water in ice again, do a google on "salinity" and "gulf stream" maybe

as far as weather control, i agree that it's time for people to stand up and get some scientists working on this, it is intolerable that humanity has just put up w. this crap for thousands of years and seen uncounted civilizations destroyed by the caprice of weather, it is time to say no more and never again, instead of every body talks abt the weather but no body does anything abt it

it is time to take charge and damn well do something abt it

this is ridiculous, we can send a man to the moon but we sit on our hands and do nothing while cities and then nations go underwater? at least in the myth of atlantis the citizens TRIED to do something about it instead of just weeping and crying

[Nihil]

50. Ah ... someone else who doesn't use the "sarcasm" smiley.

(At least, I hope that was the intent of your post!)

[pitohui]

47. they came for new orleans and they didn't say anything

...because they didn't live in new orleans

you know, i had cause to point out recently to a midwestern woman that washington d.c. will be under the ocean before new orleans is (new orleans is STILL on the river and the lake, NOT on the ocean) and i suggested that we need to learn how to fix this problem now -- but i'm still horrified that the general public is still completely ignorant of geography and thinks new orleans is on the ocean and none of this has anything to do with them

if you want an INTERACTIVE map to check your area, go here:

http://flood.firetree.net/

it's great britain-centric so you have to use the arrows quite a bit to get to north america but then you can pick and choose whatever level you think the sea will rise -- bearing in mind this map does not account for tidal or storm surges so it is a CONSERVATIVE estimate and not to be used for future planning -- in other words, if it shows you dry, it could be wrong, but if it shows you wet, you'll be wet

i say as it's quite unlikely that we can hold back the weather w.out a manhattan project style attack on weather manipulation -- and even then this may be beyond human reach -- we'd better learn to build some better levees NOW

[Nihil]

51. (On the map, best to zoom out before moving west)

> we'd better learn to build some better levees NOW

I understand your sensitivity to the New Orleans comments but the idea
of sticking an extra 6m onto a levee is non-trivial (assuming you want
it to hold against one of the increasing number of tropical storms and
hurricanes in that area). When you then consider how much of the land
around your city would be underwater, you would practically have to
build a 360 degree curtain wall, including along the river, canal and
lake banks. At risk of incurring your ire again, it would be neither
wise nor practical to consider a perimeter wall of that scale in that
location. I am sorry. The wise and practical thing to do is get to
higher ground and start building for the refugees that WILL be coming
in the near future.

:cry:

[Blue_Tires]

53. eh, that's just politically-correct, tree-hugging junk science!

:sarcasm: