NYT: Security in Baghdad deteriorating by the hour, unclear who's in charg

[adigal]

unclear who is in charge:

"Security in Baghdad seems to be deteriorating by the hour, and it is increasingly unclear who is in control. Earlier today, the Iraqi Interior Ministry reported that American forces raided a secret prison and arrested several Iraqi policeman."

The attack on Shiite militiamen has inflamed tensions over the US military going after these groups.

"American officials have been more overt in the past week than ever in blaming Shiite militias, in particular Mr. Sadr's Mahdi Army, for a wave of sectarian bloodshed that seems to have no end. This morning, authorities in Baghdad discovered the corpses of 10 more men, all bound, blindfolded and shot."

This is getting scarier and more and more confusing. Are we allies with anyone over there??? What a screw-up.

"American and Iraqi government forces clashed with Shiite militiamen in Baghdad tonight in the most serious confrontation in months, and Iraqi officials said the fighting left at least 17 Iraqis dead, including an 80-year-old imam."

Article is here:
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/27/international/middleeast/26cnd-iraq.html?hp&ex=1143435600&en=11f970a707b1fe09&ei=5094&partner=homepage

[bemildred]

1. I guess somebody sold the NYT a clue:

Battle for Baghdad 'has already started'


http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/article...

By Patrick Cockburn in Arbil
Published: 25 March 2006

The battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims for control of Baghdad has already started, say Iraqi political leaders who predict fierce street fighting will break out as each community takes over districts in which it is strongest.

"The fighting will only stop when a new balance of power has emerged," Fuad Hussein, the chief of staff of Massoud Barzani, the Kurdish leader, said. "Sunni and Shia will each take control of their own area." He said sectarian cleansing had already begun.

Many Iraqi leaders now believe that civil war is inevitable but it will be confined, at least at first, to the capital and surrounding provinces where the population is mixed. "The real battle will be the battle for Baghdad where the Shia have increasing control," said one senior official who did not want his name published. "The army will disintegrate in the first moments of the war because the soldiers are loyal to the Shia, Sunni or Kurdish communities and not to the government." He expected the Americans to stay largely on the sidelines.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=2187362&mesg_id=2187362

[grytpype]

2. Damn liberal media!

What about the children playing and life returning to normal?

[Bhaisahab]

36. since you mention children

School, college and work have been on again, off again affairs. It seems for every two days of work/school, there are five days of sitting at home waiting for the situation to improve. Right now college and school are on hold because the “arba3eeniya” or the “40th Day” is coming up- more black and green flags, mobs of men in black and latmiyas. We were told the children should try going back to school next Wednesday. I say “try” because prior to the much-awaited parliamentary meeting a couple of days ago, schools were out. After the Samarra mosque bombing, schools were out. The children have been at home this year more than they’ve been in school.
-- RIVERBEND, BAGHDAD
http://riverbendblog.blogspot.com/

[Beausoir]

3. I DEMAND good news!

Where is my good news?

[subterranean]

28. But...this IS the good news.

At least according to Fox.

[Bhaisahab]

37. great screen capture. the bastards! n/t

[leveymg]

50. Is that the same bald guy? Which is the real Spock?

Personally, I thought the "evil" Spock from the doppleganger universe looked better with the Fu Manchu mustache. Not sure about this guy. These Fox military analysts both look far too smug and pleased with the situation to be at all credible.

[buddysmellgood]

4. Yes, but surely there is a silver lining to this? Why doesn't the damn

media report the good news?

[northofdenali]

19. The good news is

gays can't get married.

[buddysmellgood]

34. ahhhh. Thank god, the sanctity of my marriage is preserved.

[cleofus1]

40. my wife and i

are both breathing a long sign of relief...

[saigon68]

42. AND TRAMPS WON'T GET ABORTIONS

ANYMORE

[goforit]

5. certainly not bush.

[Rainscents]

6. Where is all the good things we're doing over there?

What a mess we made... Freedom is on the march. :argh:

[EST]

7. It's not civil war.

Ask douche.

[adigal]

9. Which one?? There are so many to choose from n/t

[EST]

16. The sock puppet.

[killbotfactory]

8. But what about the good news to this story?

What about all the other people who weren't blindfolded and shot?!

Damn LIEberal media!

[IChing]

14. hopefully it is the begininng of the end but

i doubt it, that is the only good thing i can see coming from this misadventure, misanthropic, misnomer of a terrible mistake.

[alfredo]

30. The banana nut bread.

according to bill Maher.

[IndianaGreen]

10. AP: "sectarian slaughter ravaging Iraq"

Even the MSM can no longer ignore the obvious truth. The AP is now referring to the civil war as "sectarian slaughter" replacing the mild "sectarian strife" to describe the FUBAR in Iraq:

At least 69 Iraqis die in Sunday violence
Deaths include victims of ethnic strife, U.S.-backed raid; others beheaded

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Police found 30 more victims of the sectarian slaughter ravaging Iraq — most of them beheaded — dumped on a village road north of Baghdad on Sunday. At least 16 other Iraqis were killed in a U.S.-backed raid in a Shiite neighborhood of the capital.

Accounts of the raid varied. Aides to the Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and Iraqi police both said it took place at a mosque, with police claiming 22 innocent people died and al-Sadr’s aides saying 18 were killed.

The Americans said Iraqi special forces backed by U.S. troops killed 16 “insurgents” in a raid on a community meeting hall after gunmen opened fire on approaching troops.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11923817/

[SpiralHawk]

11. koMMander AWOL is in charge.

that's why things are so screwed up.

As usual

[Lone_Star_Dem]

12. The Strategy of Conflict - a failure written in blood part two -

There are times when I could almost swear they deliberately followed Tom Schelling's deathly flawed logic in Iraq. Even this Admin couldn't be that stupid, could they?

[WhiteTara]

13. Tom Schelling?

Okay, I'm ignorant...who is he?

[IChing]

17. info and link....a very smart man

Thomas Schelling, new Nobel Laureate

Note my biases, Schelling was my mentor at Harvard.

Tom is an unassuming guy, who looks as if he sells Hush Puppies at the local mall. But he is one of the sharpest people you will meet. He delivers the killer point, argument, or anecdote with striking regularity. Even in his eighties he is sharp as a tack. He has a deeply philosophical and humanistic approach to economics. What are his contributions?

1. The idea of precommitment. You can be better off, either individually, or institutionally, if your choices are limited in advance. This is a key idea in monetary policy (many governments seek to tie the hands of their central banks), the theory of bargaining (try buying a used car, and see if the salesman doesn't talk about "the boss upstairs"), and industrial organization (firms may invest in capacity to precommit a market position and deter rivals). You find the precommitment frequently in movies as well, especially where kidnapping is involved; what is that Mel Gibson flick again? Here is an excellent Jon Elster piece on the ambiguities of precommitment. Here is my piece on similar themes.

2. The paradox of nuclear deterrence. Ever see Dr. Strangelove? Tom developed the idea that deterrence is never fully credible (why retaliate once you are wiped out?). The best deterrent might involve precommitment, some element of randomness, or a partly crazy leader. I recall Tom telling me he was briefly an advisor to Kubrick. Here is someone else's essay on the paradox of deterrence.

3. Focal points. People coordinate by directing their attention to commonly recognized points of importance. If a meeting time for lunch is not specified, you might assume 12 noon. If someone mentions "economics blog," of course MarginalRevolution.com comes to mind. And so on. Much social coordination occurs in this manner. I once asked me class: "If you had to hide a one hundred dollar bill in a book, so that your friend would find it, but you could not announce the book, which volume should you choose?" Many said The Bible but of course the game theorist picks Schelling's The Strategy of Conflict.

4. Behavioral economics and the theory of self-constraint. One of Tom's best pieces is "The Mind as a Consuming Organ," American Economics Review, 1984. Here is a lecture of his on self control. Will Wilkinson cites a bit of that essay. Tom made it respectable for economists to talk once again about happiness.

>>>>snip and link http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2005/10/schelling_and_a_1.html

[Lone_Star_Dem]

18. He was the author of The Strategy of Conflict

And one of the strategic minds that fed the concept of the Vietnam war. There are times when I see his mindset at work behind the invasion of Iraq, but then I have to tell myself I'm imagining it.

Here's an article I found that tells you a bit about him.

All Pain, No Gain
Nobel laureate Thomas Schelling's little-known role in the Vietnam War.

Thomas C. Schelling won the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences this week. Today's papers note his ingenious applications of "game theory" to labor negotiations, business transactions, and arms-control agreements. But what they don't note—what is little-known in general—is the crucial role he played in formulating the strategies of "controlled escalation" and "punitive bombing" that plunged our country into the war in Vietnam.

This dark side of Tom Schelling is also the dark side of social science—the brash assumption that neat theories not only reflect the real world but can change it as well, and in ways that can be precisely measured. And it's a legacy that can be detected all too clearly in our current imbroglio in Iraq.

Schelling made his mark in 1960 with a book called The Strategy of Conflict, in which he applied principles of bargaining to the practice of war. (He had been an international trade negotiator in the 1940s, and while he wrote his book he was a strategist at the RAND Corp., the Air Force think tank where nearly all the defense intellectuals cut their teeth in those halcyon days.)

He saw war as essentially a violent form of bargaining. There were, he wrote, "enlightening similarities between, say, maneuvering in limited war and jockeying in a traffic jam, deterring the Russians and deterring one's own children … the modern balance of terror and the ancient institution of hostages."
more...
http://www.slate.com/id/2127862

edit for clarity

[daleo]

23. It sounds like the theory of the bomb-o-gram

Sending a message through bombing, which was a famous Viet Nam expression.

[bluestateguy]

15. Time for Adam Nagourney to write a piece now

about how the "Democrats have no plan".

[RedEarth]

20. Come on... give us some good news

[IndianaGreen]

21. Good news: There is peace in 70% of Iraq

Fact: 70% of Iraq is desert!

[RedEarth]

22. lol....that's right no one lives there ....more good news only

30 people were beheaded in Iraq today

[leftofthedial]

24. but what about the good news?

the arrested policemen all had uniforms and they had all been trained.

they stood up so the headless corpses could, um, stand down.

[Hissyspit]

25. kick

[freethought]

26. Some have posted saying that U.S. troops are

"staring into the abyss". Well, if this report is any indication our country is now stepping off into it!

[IndianaGreen]

27. Sunnis asking for American help! (NY Times)

The imbalance of killing, and the suspicion the government may be involved, is deepening the Shiite-Sunni divide, just as American officials are urging Sunni and Shiite leaders to form an inclusive government, hoping that such a show of unity will prevent a full-scale civil war.

The pressure is increasing on Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, a Shiite, but few expect him to crack down, partly because he needs the support of the Shiite militias to stay in power.

Haidar al-Ibadi, Mr. Jaafari's spokesman, acknowledged that "some of the police forces have been infiltrated." But he said "outsiders," rather than Iraqis, were to blame.

Now many Sunnis, who used to be the most anti-American community in Iraq, are asking for American help.

"If the Americans leave, we are finished," said Hassan al-Azawi, whose brother was taken from the pet shop.

He thought for a moment more.

"We may be finished already."

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/26/international/middleeast/26bodies.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

This may explain the US crackdown on Shia militias and death squads.

[bemildred]

29. Sounds like KoolAid(tm) to me, IG. nt

[IndianaGreen]

31. I wonder how bad things really are in the rest of Iraq

Baghdad has turned into another Beirut at the height of the civil war, and we have no reporters that can travel to other parts of the country without putting themselves at extreme risk.

[bemildred]

32. Well. we don't know. What does that tell you?

The only thing I am reasonably certain about is that almost everything I read is lies, or that if it's true, it's purely a coincidence. I would wager that there are peaceful places in Iraq, but not anyplace important. It smells like things are falling apart, but you don't get hourly reports in that sort of situation. I would love to get some insight into the logistics situation with the various parties to this argument, as I expect that is what will determine the outcome. I mean, we can't very well nuke Iraq after all this, can we? How can we assert any control?

[0rganism]

49. "We may be finished already." -- yeppers

All I can say is, get out while you can, Hassan. The hammer's coming down fast.

[C_U_L8R]

33. Perhaps now is the time to begin reporting the REAL war

not the made-for-tv happy war.. the one where no blood is shed, no limbs
are lost and no one comes home in a box.

It's time to get real and start reporting REALITY.

[Trajan]

35. I am curious: Is McCain and his entourage still there ? ....

Are they viewing, first hand, the inhumane viciousness now unleashed on the streets of Baghdad ? ...

Frankly: I think this was the hope all along: Arabs killing Arabs must bring at least a small smile to the lips of many a PNAC/AEI/Likudnik ....

All that was needed was a spark ..... the fuel has been there for over 1300 years ....

They already knew that ... didnt they ?

[Warren Stupidity]

41. If they are they are in the vase fortress of the green zone

and will not see any bad news.

[megatherium]

48. The NY Times story this morning about the Bush/Blair

memo indicates that they thought the war would be quick and tidy, with a manageable aftermath. So maybe they didn't know it was a bad idea. I don't think it was in our interest or even Likud's interest to trigger a new Yugoslavia: I do not believe they ever wanted a raging civil war proximate to the oil. There's still the real chance it could spiral completely out of control, bringing in Iran or Turkey.

[Guaranteed]

38. Better just start splitting up Baghdad.

This isn't going to work. We should just let them split up, or facilitate a civil split.

[Peace Patriot]

39. I'm thinking Ruwanda--this one directly instigated by the President of

the United States.

Can our disgrace as a nation be any more complete?

[justicewanted]

43. The rw wanting only good news reminds me of the commercial with the

monkeys in it.

They are all celebrating and throwing a big party because the chart shows sales are way up. Then this guy walks in and turns the chart to the way it was really supposed to be and the arrow now points down. The monkey stare dumbfounded and then one of the monkeys walks up and turn the chart again so that the chart is pointing up again. The monkeys go back to partying.

I think the bush administration is very similar to the monkey corporation in the commercial.

[Kber]

46. Very funny!

Someone should photoshop that commercial to make the monkeys fox news anchors and viewers.

Welcome to DU btw!

[spinbaby]

44. Baghdad's governor says no more cooperation

Getting short shrift in American news, but widely covered internationally, is the fact that Baghdad's governor, Hussein al-Tahan, has said that the local government will no longer cooperate with the US military.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/0,1518,408175,00.html

[leveymg]

51. Oh, great. Now we'll have to recapture Baghdad.

I'm not even sure we have it left in us.

And we're supposed to invade and occupy western Iran this summer? Sure . . .

[maddezmom]

45. Shi'ites demand control over Iraqi security

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsarticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyid=2006-03-27T134027Z_01_MAC748366_RTRUKOC_0_UK-IRAQ-MOSQUE-ALLIANCE.xml

[spanone]

47. What about the heart warming 'good news' that constantly happening.

:sarcasm: