Iraq Shias break ranks, turn on PM Jaafari

[ECH1969]

Senior members of Iraq’s ruling Shia Alliance bloc called publicly for the first time on Saturday for Ibrahim Al Jaafari to step down as prime minister to break months of deadlock over a national unity government.

“I call on Jaafari to take a courageous step and set a fine example by stepping down,” Kasim Daoud, a senior member of the independent group within the Alliance, told Reuters.

Other senior Alliance officials, speaking anonymously, confirmed that four of seven main groups within the bloc wanted Jaafari to give up the nomination for a second term if, as is all but certain, he fails to persuade minority Sunni and Kurdish parties to drop their refusal to serve in a cabinet under him.

“There is a broad trend inside the Alliance who want Jaafari to do this (step aside) and we expect him to do so,” Daoud said. “Daoud’s call is supported by at least 60 per cent of Alliance members of parliament,” another senior Alliance official from another group within the bloc told Reuters. “We have stood behind him for 50 days and today we have reached the conclusion that there should be a prime minister for all Iraqis, not just one group,” he added.

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/focusoniraq/2006/April/focusoniraq_April1.xml§ion=focusoniraq

[Karmakaze]

1. Oh yeah this had NOTHING to do with Bush...

Saying he wanted Jaafari replaced. Oh no, this is just a coincidence!

[Teaser]

2. This will have no impact on the negotiations, though

The shi'ah were going to eventually put someone else up for the job. The internal strains are too great in the UIA. However, the Sunnis are trying to use this to pressure the shi'ah to give up the ministry of the interior, which will happen when pigs fly.

I suspect the ultimate nominee will be from the fadhila party. Adel Abdul al Mahdi is unacceptable to the Sadr movement, and if he is permitted to take the job there is real risk of the UIA fracturing. Also as he is the US favorite, that is a very big strike against him.

The real target of Sunni rejectionism here is there desire to get control of Iraq's security forces. The shi'ah will not permit this to happen.

[ECH1969]

3. There are moderate Shia in the UIA that Sunnis

could support as Interior Minister. My guess is that will be the final outcome.

[Teaser]

4. Those shi'ah will likely not see the time of day

from the Islamists. And its unlikely that as-Sistani would countenance it in my opinion. My money is
still on Fadhila, because Mookie as-SAdr doesn't hate them as much as he hates SCIRI.

But the Prime Ministership is really irrelevant. It's not that Jaafari was a particularly bad prime minister. It's that governance in Iraq is
simply impossible and will remain impossible due to the titanic stresses imposed by Iraq's civil war.

Of course, the real crux of the sunni demands, that the shi'ah relinquish control over security programs, is just not going to happen.
Shi'ah death squads will continue killing Sunnis and Sunni insurgents will continu their program of slaughter. The political process has proven
time and time again to be some kind of ridiculous kabuki theater, while the real political process, the nightly sectarian slaughter, continues to spiral down its predetermined trajectory.

[ECH1969]

6. No

Who is the Interior and Defense minister matters a great deal. The Iraqi Army is light years ahead of police force by in large because it is run by competent people at the top. The Shia Islamist Interior Minister is not competent and has allowed militias on mass into the police forces.

I think we will see that competence or lack thereof will determine the success or failure of the Iraqi government after it is formed to a extent far greater then anything else. If the UIA can find someone competent to led the Interior Ministry they will be successuful, if they don't they will fail.

[Teaser]

10. No

the shi'ah islamists are not going to allow "competent" people to run the interior, if by competent you mean "won't allow death squads to run rampant."

The infiltration of death squads isn't incompetence. It is POLICY.

As for the failure of the government, that happened months ago. This is all just dancing long after the music has stopped and the partygoers have left.

[bemildred]

5. This appears to be spin and unattributed horseshit.

The Shi'ia block has ALWAYS been divided over Jaafari, even when he was selected in the first place. Unless someone has changed their position, there is no news.

[ECH1969]

7. Members of the UIA publically saying Jaafari should step down

is new. They have been divided behind the scenes since Jaafari's one vote victory, but this is the first time they are openly saying he should resign.

[bemildred]

8. I suppose. There has been loud public opposition to him right along.

It may be that these particular fellows speaking up is new, but I still think unless someone has changed their position, it falls in the category of political posturing and propaganda rather than news, but I'll admit it's fair to say it's not entirely vacuuous.

[Teaser]

12. the speaker just joined the UIA in january from allawi's list

he is no "leader" within the UIA. He is likely a plant.

[rocktivity]

9. GOOD NEWS!

Shia are emulating the partisan bullying tactics of the Bush government!

:party: (This post is part of the George Bush GULF WAR GOOD NEWS initiative.)
rocknation

[Teaser]

11. Whole story in question now:

It appears the "UIA leader" in question is an Allawi mole:

http://www.needlenose.com/taxonomy/page/or/45

[annabanana]

13. well well

The more things change, the more they remain the same over there, huh?

[Roland99]

14. I am Jack's complete lack of surprise