STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 3 April

[ozymandius]

Monday April 3, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 1022 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1929 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1629 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1590
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 31, 2006

Dow... 11,109.32 -41.38 (-0.37%)
Nasdaq... 2,339.79 -1.03 (-0.04%)
S&P 500... 1,294.83 -5.42 (-0.42%)
Gold future... 586.70 -5.10 (-0.87%)
30-Year Bond 4.89% +0.00 (+0.02%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.85% -0.00 (-0.04%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
Manipulation

Every so often I receive e-mails questioning my views on manipulation. The basic question is whether or not I believe in market manipulation. The basic answer is, yes. I believe in what I can see and prove. Inflating the money supply, lowering interest rates, raising interest rates, doctoring up unemployment data as well as inflation data by excluding key items are all obvious forms of manipulation.

Others talk about the Plunge Protection Team (PPT), which allegedly comes into the market and buys futures to “control” the market. This is something that I can’t prove or disprove. Therefore, to form an opinion about any manipulative efforts of this degree would not be based on fact. Without a basis of fact, I see this no differently than guessing about UFO’s or any other urban legend. It is for that reason that I have to shy away from notions of manipulative efforts of that degree. Hey, this is not to say that it does or doesn’t happen. This is only to say I can’t prove it either way so I really don’t care. Furthermore, I will argue that if it does exist, it will not matter in the long run as all manipulative efforts ultimately do fail.

Now, let’s deal with what we do know. One thing that I do know is what the internal strength data is telling me and it does support the liquidity infusion that has obviously been underway. Over the last couple of weeks I have shown you various measures of the internals. The bottom line is that when we look at these internals in relation to the individual intermediate term advances that have made up this entire Secondary Reaction that began at the 2002 Phase I low, we find that each intermediate term advance has been on weaker and weaker internals.

-cut-

PPT? We’ll see about that when the show down between liquidity and the natural forces of the bear market reappear later this year. Regardless of the degree of manipulation, I believe that the natural forces of the market will ultimately win out. I do not believe that any such efforts can make up for solid buying and that it will ultimately only make matters worse once gravity takes over.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[still_one]

11. It is more than that

the consumer's debt load is rising, and with rising interest rates along with all the wonderful equity lines of credit that were taken out when interest rates were lower, the consumer is getting burdened by more expensive debt.

If interest rates continue to rise, that is NOT compatiable with an upward market. For the last four years the so-called analysts have been telling us that energy prices would settle below 50. That has not happened. In fact it wasn't that long ago when OPEC was telling us that 35 dollars a barrel was a fair price. I expect energy prices will remain high in the forseeable future. This issue should have been addressed in 1973, and it still is being ignored.

I agree that no matter how much manupulation there is, the market will eventually face reality. I also believe that we are reaching a critical top in the market, that cannot be sustained.

It looks like the dow will open up at about 65 this morning.

Interesting that oil futures and gold are up again this morning.

[specimenfred1984]

45. Aliens Control the Fed, Goldman and J.P. Morgan?

and aliens are heavily into derivatives?

I wonder why Mr. Alien-name-caller didn't mention derivatives? That's the worst garbage I've ever read at FS.

[InsultComicDog]

51. Now that you mention it

But he's retired now, anyway.

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

12:00 AM Auto Sales Mar
Briefing Forecast 5.5M
Market Expects 5.5M
Prior 5.4M

12:00 AM Truck Sales Mar
Briefing Forecast 7.9M
Market Expects 7.9M
Prior 7.8M

10:00 AM Construction Spending Feb
Briefing Forecast 0.4%
Market Expects 0.5%
Prior 0.2%

10:00 AM ISM Index Mar
Briefing Forecast 58.0
Market Expects 57.7
Prior 56.7

[UpInArms]

38. 10:00 Reports: (ISM below expectation - Pending Homes Sales Down)

10:01 AM ET 4/3/06 U.S. MARCH ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX BELOW 57.3% CONSENSUS

10:01 AM ET 4/3/06 U.S. MARCH ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX 55.2% VS 56.7% IN FEB.

10:00 AM ET 4/3/06 U.S. JAN. CONSTRUCTION OUTLAYS REVISED TO 0.4% GAIN VS. 0.2%

10:00 AM ET 4/3/06 U.S. FEB. PUBLIC-SECTOR CONSTRUCTION SPENDING FALLS 0.5%

10:00 AM ET 4/3/06 U.S. FEB. PRIVATE-SECTOR CONSTRUCTION SPENDING UP 1.2%

10:00 AM ET 4/3/06 FEB. PENDING HOME SALES DOWN 5.2% FROM YEAR-AGO LEVEL

10:00 AM ET 4/3/06 U.S. FEB. RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION SPENDING UP 1.3%

10:00 AM ET 4/3/06 U.S. FEB. CONSTRUCTION OUTLAYS UP 0.8% VS. 0.6% EXPECTED

10:00 AM ET 4/3/06 FEB. PENDING HOME SALES FALL 0.8% TO 117.7

[UpInArms]

39. Feb. pending home sales fall 0.8% to 117.7

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B4E8DF7BE%2D58CE%2D4776%2DBA5C%2D6117842D1BF9%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Pending home sales fell 0.8% in February, to a level of 117.7, the National Association of Realtors said Monday. Year-over-year, pending home sales are down 5.2%, the group said, indicating that the housing market is stabilizing. NAR's chief economist said most of the housing market's cooling has already happened but that the market will be "historically strong" going forward.

[UpInArms]

40. U.S. Feb. construction outlays up 0.8%

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B670DAF92%2D08E9%2D4DE0%2DA9E3%2DB866C4845EA6%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Boosted by home building, outlays for U.S. construction projects increased 0.8% in February, the Commerce Department said Monday. Economists were expecting a gain of about 0.6%, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. January's outlays were revised to show a 0.4% gain compared with the 0.2% increase originally estimated. Construction outlays are up 7.4% since last February. Outlays were led by home construction, which increased 1.3%. Private-sector outlays rose 1.2%, while public-sector construction fell 0.5%. In the private sector, spending on nonresidential projects rose 0.8% to the highest level since October 2001.

This makes all the sense in the world. :crazy:

Sales are down, pending sales are down - let's build even more!

[Roland99]

77. I love how they don't qualify the numbers. How much is in NOLA?

With Federal funding gone kaput, people are looking to other ways to rebuild in NOLA (like what Karl Malone is helping out with down there).

Unless we get more hurricanes, I don't see how construction can keep going.

[UpInArms]

42. U.S. manufacturing sector growth slows in March

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-03T140814Z_01_N03342656_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-MANUFACTURING-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, April 3 (Reuters) - U.S. factory activity ran at
its slowest pace for three months in March, as new orders fell
and inflation flared up, according to a survey on Monday.

The Institute for Supply Management said its index of
national factory activity fell to 55.2 in March from 56.7 in
February, falling short of economists' forecasts for a rise to
57.9.

A reading above 50 indicates growth in the factory sector.
The ISM index has held above this level for about three years
in a row now, but this was the lowest reading since December.

The new orders component, a gauge of future growth, fell to
58.4 from 61.9 in February, while the employment index dropped
to 52.5 from 55.0 the month before.

The prices paid index, which measures inflationary
pressures within the factory sector, rose to 66.5 in March, the
highest reading since November for this component, from 62.5 in
February.

[UpInArms]

58. U.S. March ISM manufacturing index 55.2% vs 56.7% in Feb.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B2B5D3BEE%2D3356%2D4A68%2D9B78%2D0B5D9CAE3B90%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Factory activity in the United States decelerated slightly in March, the Institute for Supply Management reported Monday. The ISM index fell to 55.2% in March from 56.7% in February. The decline was unexpected. The consensus forecast of estimates collected by Marketwatch was for the index to rise to 57.3%. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. New orders fell to 58.4% in March from 61.9% in February. The employment index fell to 52.5% from 55.0%. The price index rose to 66.5% from 62.5%. Inventories declined slightly in March, but the backlog of orders was higher.

[UpInArms]

68. Ford March Sales down 4.6% - Q1 Sales down 2.6%

12:08 PM ET 4/3/06 FORD Q1 SALES DOWN 2.6% TO 740,838

12:06 PM ET 4/3/06 FORD MARCH LAND ROVER BRAND SALES UP 39.3% TO 4,153

12:05 PM ET 4/3/06 FORD MARCH JAGUAR BRAND SALES DOWN 47.4% TO 1,866

12:06 PM ET 4/3/06 FORD MARCH VOLVO BRAND SALES DOWN 4.2% TO 11,124

12:04 PM ET 4/3/06 FORD MARCH MERCURY BRAND SALES DOWN 11.8% TO 18,915

12:05 PM ET 4/3/06 FORD MARCH LINCOLN BRAND SALES UP 3.9% TO 13,446

12:04 PM ET 4/3/06 FORD MARCH FORD BRAND SALES DOWN 4.4% TO 241,642

12:02 PM ET 4/3/06 FORD MARCH SALES DOWN 4.6% TO 291,146

12:02 PM ET 4/3/06 FORD MARCH CAR SALES DOWN 2.8% TO 104,775

12:03 PM ET 4/3/06 FORD MARCH TRUCK SALES DOWN 5.6% TO 186,371

12:01 PM ET 4/3/06 FORD Q1 SALES DOWN 3% TO 740,838

[UpInArms]

70. Ford Motor U.S. vehicle sales fall 4.6% in March

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B06BA29F6%2DEFDF%2D4753%2D92B6%2D97025351DA81%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Ford Motor Co. (F 7.88, -0.08, -1.0% ) said Monday U.S. vehicle sales fell 4.6% in March, to 291,146 from 305,172 in the same month a year earlier. U.S. car sales fell 2.8%, to 104,775 from 107,834, while truck sales dropped 5.6%, to 186,371 from 197,338. Ford-branded car sales rose 2% for the month, but sales of Ford-branded trucks were down 7.1%. Sales of Lincoln and Mercury brand cars were down 8.4%; sales of the brands' trucks slipped 1.4%. Jaguar U.S. sales slumped 47.4%, Ford said, and Volvo sales came in 4.2% lower. Sales of Land Rovers, meanwhile, shot higher by 39.3%.

[UpInArms]

72. DaimlerChrysler U.S. sales up 12% in March (Mercedes sales up 18%)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-03T161659Z_01_WEN3841_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-DAIMLERCHRYSLER-SALES-URGENT.XML

CHICAGO, April 3 (Reuters) - DaimlerChrysler AG (DCXGn.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) (DCX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Monday said its U.S. sales rose 12 percent, to 237,829 vehicles, in March.

The world's No. 5 automaker said sales for its Mercedes brand rose 18 percent percent to 21,417 vehicles, while its U.S. Chrysler unit saw sales rise 2 percent to 216,412 vehicles.

[UpInArms]

84. GM March Sales down 14% (check out those Hummer Sales!)

2:21 PM ET 4/3/06 GM MARCH ISUZU/OTHER BRAND SALES DOWN 23.5% TO 1,387

2:20 PM ET 4/3/06 GM MARCH SAAB BRAND SALES UP 2.5% TO 3,239

2:21 PM ET 4/3/06 GM MARCH SATURN BRAND SALES DOWN 17.6% TO 16,629

2:19 PM ET 4/3/06 GM MARCH GMC BRAND SALES DOWN 20.9% TO 42,837

2:19 PM ET 4/3/06 GM MARCH HUMMER BRAND SALES UP 175.9% TO 6,125

2:20 PM ET 4/3/06 GM MARCH PONTIAC BRAND SALES DOWN 25.6% TO 32,649

2:18 PM ET 4/3/06 GM MARCH CADILLAC BRAND SALES UP 1.9% TO 19,945

2:19 PM ET 4/3/06 GM MARCH CHEVROLET BRAND SALES DOWN 15.1% TO 219,288

2:18 PM ET 4/3/06 GM MARCH BUICK BRAND SALES UP 2.5% TO 23,276

2:16 PM ET 4/3/06 GM MARCH CAR SALES DOWN 21.7% TO 133,834

2:17 PM ET 4/3/06 GM MARCH TRUCK SALES DOWN 9.3% TO 231,541

2:16 PM ET 4/3/06 GM MARCH VEHICLE SALES DOWN 14% TO 365,375

[UpInArms]

87. GM U.S. vehicle sales fall 14.3% in March

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BFC93FCDD%2D2BAC%2D4011%2D9E0B%2D5753E497E904%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- General Motors Corp. (GM 20.86, -0.41, -1.9% ) on Monday said U.S. vehicle sales fell 14.3% in March, to 365,375 from 426,114. Car sales plunged 21.7%, to 133,834 from 170,905, while sales of trucks were lower by 9.3% at 231,541 vs. 170,905 in the same month last year. U.S. sales of the Chevrolet brand lost 15.1% for the month, GM said, with Isuzu sales falling 23.5% and GMC sales down 20.9%. Hummer sales, meanwhile, rocketed higher by 175.9% in March. The automaker also said it now sees production of 474,000 vehicles for its Asia Pacific region in the second quarter, down 6,000 from last month's outlook.

[UpInArms]

88. Toyota Motor U.S. vehicle sales rise 6.9%

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BD6ADBB4D%2D32ED%2D45EC%2D9C73%2DADA6FE54025D%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Toyota Motor Corp. (TM 110.53, +1.63, +1.5% ) (JP:7203 0.00, 0.00, 0.0% ) said Monday U.S. vehicle sales rose 6.9% in March, to 217,286 from 203,223. Sales in its Toyota division were higher by 6.7% at 189,694 compared with 177,752 in the same month last year, while Lexus division sales rose 8.3%, to 27,592 from 25,471.

[ozymandius]

3. Crude Oil Prices Rise to $66.81 a Barrel

SINGAPORE - Oil prices rose Monday as the uncertain outlook for crude supplies out of
Iran and Nigeria supported prices amid an absence of fresh news.

Light, sweet crude for May delivery rose 18 cents to $66.81 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract on Friday closed 52 cents lower at $66.63 a barrel.

-cut-

Last week, the crude contract made solid gains in three sessions to surge nearly $3 a barrel on supply concerns linked to U.S. gasoline inventories, which have been falling ahead of the U.S. summer driving season, when demand peaks.

-cut-

Oil prices also continued to be supported by fears of more disruptions to supply by militant unrest in Nigeria, which has already taken more than 500,000 barrels per day of oil off the market.

more...

[ozymandius]

22. Crude rallies at start of new quarter

Crude rallies at start of new quarter
Concerns about Iran, Nigeria and Iraq push oil higher

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures rose early Monday, joining a broad rally in the commodities market as traders got ready to begin the second quarter.

Crude for May delivery was last trading up 49 cents at $67.12 a barrel. On Friday, the contract closed out the first quarter with a more than 9% gain, pushed higher by concerns about Iran's nuclear program and production shutdowns in Nigeria.

"The uncertainty over Iranian supplies remains the key support for the market at the moment after the U.N. Security Council last week gave Iran 30 days to halt enrichment, even though Tehran pledged not to cut off oil supplies," said analysts at research firm Action Economics.

A weekend test by Iran of a new underwater missile during war games in the Persian Gulf, coupled with comments from military commanders that Iran is ready to react to any attack, are "likely to keep geopolitics at the forefront of oil market concerns," said Kevin Norrish, analyst at Barclays Capital.

more...

[UpInArms]

34. Energy stocks open higher on spot crude uptick - @ $67.11 bbl

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BBA6CBCDE%2DA21A%2D4336%2DAB3B%2D93384A83C7AE%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Energy stocks ticked higher at the open Monday, buoyed by a 48-cent rise in crude oil prices to $67.11 a barrel in New York. In early action, the Amex Oil Index ($XOI 1,079.86, +9.31, +0.9% ) was up 0.8% at 1,078.02 points, the Amex Natural Gas Index ($XNG 402.21, +3.38, +0.8% ) rose 0.8% to 401.99, and the Philadelphia Oil Service Index ($OSX 210.43, +2.08, +1.0% ) was up 1% at 210.43 points. ConocoPhillips (COP 63.15, -1.33, -2.1% ) led percentage gainers, up 2.6% at $64.80 a share after Goldman Sachs re-initiated coverage of the company with an outperform rating.

[UpInArms]

35. Obama Will Rip Bush Energy Policy at AP Luncheon Monday

http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1002276081

CHICAGO Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) will be chief speaker at the Associated Press luncheon at the Fairmont Hotel Monday afternoon following the AP annual meeting there. In his talk, according to a text obtained by AP today, he will accuse the Bush administration of a "stubborn refusal" to attack the causes of climate change, and say that tougher fuel standards, stricter curbs on oil imports and more investment in cleaner energy are essential to avert global catastrophe.

<snip>

At the AP luncheon Monday, Obama, a rising Democratic "star," will declare that saying that America is addicted to oil, as President Bush has done, without following a real plan for energy independence "is like admitting alcoholism and then skipping out on the 12-step program.

"It's not enough to identify the challenge. We have to meet it," Obama will say.

Obama asserts, in his prepared remarks, that the government should provide tax breaks and loan guarantees to show the way toward greater use of environmentally friendlier energy sources.

He cites several pieces of legislation he has introduced in Congress, including one to help defray the auto industry's costs of investment in more fuel-efficient cars. It calls for the federal government to pick up a portion of the costs automakers pay for retiree health care, so long as companies use some of the savings to retool their factories.

...more...

[UpInArms]

48. Crude futures climb to two-month highs in early trading - @ $67.70 bbl

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BBB857508%2DD890%2D4BFD%2DA0F2%2D61330A7BD609%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- May crude climbed as high as $67.70 a barrel in early trading, a level not seen since Feb. 6. "It appears some have seller's remorse for exiting their positions too early," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading. Crude futures ended Friday with a gain of more than 9% for the first quarter. May natural gas was last up 21 cents at $7.42 per million British thermal units. It ened the first quarter with a loss of almost 36%.

[UpInArms]

53. Oil edges toward $68 on first day of new quarter

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B19924783%2DD7BE%2D47B6%2D9F20%2D4616A0FB2B92%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures inched toward $68 a barrel Monday morning as investors remained concerned energy production ahead of the hurricane and summer driving seasons despite U.S. crude inventories near seven-year highs.

Traders "will continue to fret over the approaching hurricane and driving seasons," John Kilduff, an analyst at Fimat USA, said in a note to clients Monday.

Crude for May delivery was last trading up 82 cents, or 1.2%, at $67.45 a barrel. It climbed as high as $67.70 for the first time since Feb. 6. Futures prices are nearing the record of $70.85 for a front-month contract, reached on Aug. 30.

On Friday, the May contract closed out the first quarter with a more than 9% gain, pushed higher by concerns about Iran's nuclear program and production shutdowns in Nigeria.

<snip>

"The uncertainty over Iranian supplies remains the key support for the market at the moment after the U.N. Security Council last week gave Iran 30 days to halt enrichment, even though Tehran pledged not to cut off oil supplies," said analysts at research firm Action Economics.

<snip>

Oil products traded higher along with crude, with May gasoline futures up 0.32 cent at $1.8875 a gallon and May heating oil adding 2.27 cents to $1.886 a gallon.

...more...

[UpInArms]

64. New Ads target GOPpiggies who Hate Americans and Love Big Oil

http://releases.usnewswire.com/GetRelease.asp?id=63412

The inaugural ad campaign will target Representatives Chris Chocola (IN-2), Thelma Drake (VA-2), Nancy Johnson (CT-5) and Deborah Pryce (OH-15) for taking money from oil and energy companies and then supporting laws that give away billions to these companies while ordinary Americans pay more at the pump.

These Representatives voted in favor of the oil industry and against a measure that would have provided the U.S. Department of Justice authority to prosecute oil companies engaged in price gouging. The measure would have imposed fines of up to $100 million on those companies found guilty.

"Representative Drake and the others keep voting with their big-oil contributors, while we pay more at the pump. Why is Drake supporting President Bush's policies that help the oil industry but hurt the people of Virginia?" asked Guy Sturino, a MoveOn community leader and retired high school teacher from Virginia Beach.

The ads exclusively funded through small donations made by almost 13,000 MoveOn members, to run on local TV stations at saturation levels for 10 days in April. Similar ads will follow in the months ahead to the tune of $1.3 million.

"We're making sure everyone in these districts is aware of their Members' ties to big oil companies. These ads-which will run at saturation in four congressional districts for virtually everyone in those districts to see-will help us get the word out," said Jennifer Lindenauer, Communications Director of MoveOn.org Political Action. "We need real leaders in the House of Representatives who will represent their constituents, not Exxon/Mobil, BP, Shell and Texaco."

[UpInArms]

75. Chávez seeks to peg oil at $50 a barrel

http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,1745467,00.html

Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez is poised to launch a bid to transform the global politics of oil by seeking a deal with consumer countries which would lock in a price of $50 a barrel.

A long-term agreement at that price could allow Venezuela to count its huge deposits of heavy crude as part of its official reserves, which Caracas says would give it more oil than Saudi Arabia.

"We have the largest oil reserves in the world, we have oil for 200 years." Mr Chávez told the BBC's Newsnight programme in an interview to be broadcast tonight. "$50 a barrel - that's a fair price, not a high price."

The price proposed by Mr Chávez is about $15 a barrel below the current global level but a credible long-term agreement at about $50 a barrel could have huge implications for Venezuela's standing in the international oil community.

According to US sources, Venezuela holds 90% of the world's extra heavy crude oil - deposits which have to be turned into synthetic light crude before they can be refined and which only become economic to operate with the oil price at about $40 a barrel. Newsnight cites a report from the US Energy Information Administrator, Guy Caruso, suggesting Venezuela could have more than a trillion barrels of reserves.

...more...

from the BBC

Chavez rules out return to cheap oil

In an interview with BBC Newsnight's Greg Palast, Mr Chavez - who is due to host the Opec meeting on 1 June in Caracas - said he would ask the oil cartel to set $50 a barrel as the long term level.

During the 1990s the price of oil had hovered around the $20 mark falling as low as $10 a barrel in early 1999.

"We're trying to find an equilibrium. The price of oil could remain at the low level of $50. That's a fair price it's not a high price," Mr Chavez said.

He will have added clout at this Opec meeting.

Analysis by the US Department of Energy (DoE) - seen by Newsnight - shows that at $50 a barrel Venezuela - not Saudi Arabia - will have the biggest oil reserves in Opec.

...more...

[UpInArms]

91. Venezuela takes back 7 oil fields from oil companies - oil minister

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BC0201BE0%2D5646%2D435B%2DA022%2D78F4EE94CA3E%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

CARACAS (MarketWatch) -- Venezuela has taken back a total of seven oil fields from private companies, five of which were voluntarily returned, after completing negations for a contract overhaul, Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said Monday.
He said the seven fields produce a total of 115,000 barrels a day.

Ramirez said state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. (PVZ.YY) has already taken over operations at two oil fields, one operated by Total (TOT) and another by ENI (E), because those firms refused to sign the new contract model. Ramirez, who is also the president of PdVSA, said Venezuela will negotiate compensation for these firms, but will not open additional talks to for them to retain minority stakes in the fields.

"If we opened up an additional window of negotiations," it would show a lack of respect for the companies that signed, said Ramirez.

Total said Monday that it was looking to reach an agreement with PdVSA on the 30,000 b/d Jusepin field that was taken over, while ENI threatened to take legal action. Ramirez expressed confidence that PdVSA would win any legal case brought against it.

"They can take it to the celestial court if they want," said Ramirez.

The other five fields were returned voluntarily, and the firms that used to operate them will be compensated for handing them over, said Ramirez.

...more...

[UpInArms]

95. May Crude closes @ $66.74 bbl - May NatGas @ $7.244 mln btus

2:50 PM ET 4/3/06 MAY CRUDE UP 11C TO END AT $66.74/BRL, BELOW ITS $67.90 HIGH

2:50 PM ET 4/3/06 MAY NATURAL GAS UP 3.4C TO CLOSE AT $7.244/MLN BTU

[ozymandius]

4. Home Depot Completes Purchase of Hughes

ATLANTA - The Home Depot Inc., the nation's largest home improvement store chain, said Friday it has completed its $3.2 billion purchase of Hughes Supply Inc., a distributor of construction, repair and maintenance products.

-cut-

The deal doubles the size of The Home Depot Supply division, which serves business customers, such as homebuilders, professional contractors, municipalities and maintenance professionals. It's Home Depot's largest acquisition ever.

short story

[ozymandius]

5. STOCKS NEWS EUROPE-GMAC CDS fall on expected stake sale

The credit protection cost of General Motors Acceptance Corp. (GMAC) falls after weekend reports a consortium led by Cerberus will buy a controlling stake in the finance arm of Detroit car maker General Motors (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) for about $11 billion.

London credit traders say five-year credit default swaps on GMAC fall more than 50 basis points to 345 basis points. That means it costs 345,000 euros to insure 10 million euros of GMAC debt against default.

short story

[UpInArms]

8. GM sees $1B charge for GMAC sale; Citi to oversee $25B loan

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B00A759F3%2DA3F4%2D42D9%2DA0D0%2D6F1F3EA461A7%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- General Motors (GM 21.27, +0.21, +1.0% ) said it will take a non-cash, pre-tax charge of $1.1 billion in its second-quarter earnings for the sale of 51% of GMAC. Citigroup (C 47.23, -0.05, -0.1% ) has agreed to provide $25 billion in a syndicated loan to support GMAC's ongoing business and its "already strong" liquidity position. The funding facilities are in addition to Citigroup's initial equity investment in GMAC.

[ozymandius]

9. U.S. stocks poised for sharp gains on deal action

NEW YORK, April 3 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures indicated a robust market open on Monday amid brisk acquisition action, including French telecommunications equipment maker Alcatel's (CGEP.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) proposed $13.4 billion purchase of U.S. rival Lucent Technologies Inc. (LU.N: Quote, Profile, Research)

General Motors Corp. (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) announced a $14 billion deal to sell a controlling stake in General Motors Acceptance Corp., its finance arm, to a consortium led by hedge fund Cerberus Capital Management LP. .

"We're looking higher, with Alcatel finally bidding for Lucent and the sale of GMAC," said Peter Cardillo, chief market analyst and chief strategist at SW Bach and Co. "We're going to see probably a positive first day in the second quarter."

more...

[UpInArms]

14. Moody's keeps GMAC rating on review for downgrade

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-03T123228Z_01_L03214644_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-RATINGS-GMAC-URGENT.XML

LONDON, April 3 (Reuters) - Moody's Investors Service on Monday said it still might cut its Ba1 rating on General Motors Acceptance Corp. (GMAC), after GMAC's parent General Motors (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) agreed to sell a 51 percent stake in the unit.

In a statement, the rating agency said it thought maintaining the Ba1 rating, one level below investment grade, would be the "best-case rating outcome" at the close of the sale to a consortium led by hedge fund Cerberus Capital Management.

Moody's said GM's credit profile would need to stabilise or improve before GMAC could move out of "junk" status, and it did not view the consortium as a "strategic investor" that could provide external support for the rating. Earlier on Monday, GM said a Cerberus-led investor group, which includes the private equity unit of Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Japan's Aozora Bank Ltd, would pay $14 billion over three years for the stake.

<snip>

"In Moody's view, therefore, it is unlikely that GMAC's ratings could rise to the investment grade level until GM's credit profile stabilizes or even improves," the agency said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

60. S&P: GM ratings stay on 'creditwatch negative' on GMAC deal

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B863F259F%2DDAEE%2D40EA%2DADAA%2D5FB1A5BDF505%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services on Monday said all of its ratings on General Motors Corp. (GM 20.96, -0.31, -1.5% ) , including its B long-term and B-3 short-term corporate credit ratings, remain on creditwatch with negative implications following the company's agreement to sell a 51% ownership stake in General Motors Acceptance Corp. to a consortium led by Cerberus Capital Management L.P. "Our preliminary assessment is that if the GMAC transaction is completed as proposed, GMAC's long-term rating would be raised to 'BB+'," said S&P credit analyst Robert Schulz in a statement. The agency said it will finalize its assessment, including GMAC's outlook, near the time of the transaction's closing, which GM expects to be late this year. Additionally, S&P said it now believes it could lower GM's ratings at any time because of evolving events at former unit Delphi Corp. (DPHIQ 0.61, -0.03, -4.7% ).

[UpInArms]

6. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

Last trade 90.16 Change +0.10 (+0.11%)

Handicapping a Slowdown

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special-report/special-reports/7725-handicapping-a.html

Juts like last week and the week before that the EUR/USD saw a reversal with whipsaw action once again frustrating the breakout players on either end of the 1.2200-1.2000 range. Note however, that despite the choppiness the pair has made seies of higher lows over tha past month suggesting that the underlying bias in the FX market appears to be favoring the euro. The FX market is beginning to handicap a slowdown in US growth and to that end the shortfall in Personal Income figures which printed 0.4% vs. 0.7% expected and the stagnant Personal Spending figures released on Friday which saw no gain at all versus 0.0% projected all contributed to the dollar bear’s argument that the salad days of US economic growth may be over. Thus, neither the Fed hike to 4.75% nor the strong Chicago PMI numbers could sway the market to get long dollars as traders looked to the future with foreboding.

Next week the bears thesis will be either confirmed or refuted as the most important report of the month will be released on Friday. The Non-Farm payrolls, as always will have a very strong impact on the market shold they exceed or fail expecations. We have long argued that 200K new jobs is the key metric for the growth of the US economy and the health of the greenback. If the NFP’s print within or above that number, the dollar may well firm as assumptions about the end of Fed rate hike campaign will have to be recalibrated. On the other hand should the NFP’s disappoint that result could serve as catalyst to a EUR/USD breakout out of the current tight range as the idea of a US economic slowdown will become closer to reality.

...more...

[UpInArms]

19. Dollar rallies after Japan's Tankan survey

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BAAA41130%2D2F3A%2D42F6%2DB195%2D55447D49E8BB%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar started the new quarter on a firm footing, rallying to a three-week high against the yen, after a business sentiment survey in Japan disappointed, reinforcing the market's view of a go-slow attitude on interest rate hikes in the world's second-largest economy. The dollar also gained on expectation that this week's U.S. economic data would support further interest rate tightening by the Federal Reserve. At 10 a.m. Eastern, traders will review the manufacturing ISM survey and construction spending data. "The market seemed very sensitive to house sales data last in recent weeks and this suggests to us that the construction spending data might be the report that receives the most attention," said Felicity Algate, an economist at Bear Stearns, in a note to clients. Overnight, the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey showed the headline diffusion index measuring large manufacturers' business conditions at 20, down 1 point from the December survey. Economists had expected a 2-point gain. At last check, the dollar was up 0.6% at 118.44 yen, while the euro was down 0.5% at $1.2056.

[UpInArms]

63. dollar taking a beating

Last trade 89.83 Change -0.23 (-0.26%)

Settle Time 15:00 Open 90.04

Previous Close 90.06 High 90.40

Low 89.72 2006-04-03 11:05:39, 30 min delay

[UpInArms]

96. dollar still sagging

Last trade 89.64 Change -0.42 (-0.47%)

Settle Time 15:01 Open 90.04

Previous Close 90.06 High 90.40

Low 89.61 2006-04-03 14:35:28, 30 min delay

[54anickel]

79. Today's Pfenning

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=637

snip>

I was reading a story this weekend that caught my attention... Reuters reported that..."Currency funds expect to end the first quarter on a sour note, but hope that a weak dollar trend widely expected later this year and lucrative emerging market trades will break their slump."

Yes, a widely expected weak dollar trend later this year... I agree with that one! And Bill Bonner and Addison Wiggin had a great piece in their Friday Daily Reckoning (http://www.dailyreckoning.com) regarding the U.S. Trade Gap, and how it relates to the future value of the dollar... Here's a snippet...

Willem Buiter, a monetary astronomer at Goldman Sachs, comments:
"With the U.S. trade gap in October 2005 widening to a new record U.S. $68.9 billion, the U.S. current account deficit is unsustainable. Its correction will require a large depreciation of the real effective U.S. Dollar exchange rate, on reasonable estimates by no less than 30%, and quite possibly by more."

And to follow that up... This was reported...
"The Asian Development Bank warned readers last week to "prepare for a collapse of the dollar."

I foresee this short-term noise with a weaker euro vs. the dollar to be short lived as I expect ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet to step up the anti-inflation rhetoric this week. This is his chance to shine... Let's see how well he does, eh?

more...

[ozymandius]

7. futures are looking up

[UpInArms]

10. Identity theft hit 3.6 million in U.S.

http://www.infoworld.com/article/06/03/31/77031_HNidtheft_1.html?source=rss&url=http://www.infoworld.com/article/06/03/31/77031_HNidtheft_1.html

Wondering how likely you are to have your credit card number stolen? Well, according to a comprehensive survey conducted by the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), identity theft is affecting millions of households in the U.S each year and costing an estimated $6.4 billion per year.

About 3 percent of all households in the U.S., totaling an estimated 3.6 million families, were hit by some sort of ID theft during the first six months of 2004, according to DOJ data set to be released Sunday.

The data comes from the Justice Department's National Crime Victimization Survey, which interviews members of 42,000 households across the country every six months to better understand the nature, frequency and consequences of crime. Households that participate in the survey are selected at random and then interviewed by DOJ statisticians twice a year for three years.

The DOJ has been compiling this information for more than 30 years, but this marks the first time it has asked households about identity theft, said survey author Katrina Baum, a statistician with the Justice Department's Bureau of Justice Statistics.

According to the DOJ's numbers, credit card misuse is the most common consequence of identity theft. It accounted for about half of the cases of identity theft that the survey tracked, Baum said.

Of the other identity theft victims, about 25 percent had banking and other types of accounts used without permission, 15 percent had their personal information misused, and about 12 percent faced a combination of several types of ID theft.

...more...

[InsultComicDog]

50. Much higher than I expected

Although it depends on what they mean, exactly, by "some sort of ID theft".

[AnneD]

74. they were not counting...

voting machine ballot theft, otherwise it would be higher.:spray:

[UpInArms]

12. Gehl to close machine line in Wisconsin, cut 140 jobs, take $9.5M charge

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B238B72E1%2DFD5D%2D4033%2DB147%2D8995FB7347FA%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Gehl Co. (GEHL 33.12, -0.38, -1.1% ) said Monday it would close its West Bend, Wis., agricultural implement manufacturing operations in the next 60 days, exiting those lines and taking a $9.5 million, or 76 cents a share, charge to earnings. About 140 positions will be eliminated, Gehl said. "Many of our small dairy farmer customers have either retired or sold their operations to larger producers," said William Gehl, chairman and chief executive. "Consequently, the customer base for our agricultural implement lines has declined dramatically." Gehl predicted 2006 sales of $485 million to $495 million and earnings of $2.20 to $2.30 a share from continuing operations.

[UpInArms]

13. Gold leads broad metals rally - Gold @ $591.50 oz - Silver @ $11.63 oz

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B11B0EBA8%2DC806%2D4D2E%2D8297%2D2DBC48DF36AA%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Gold and other precious metals rose sharply early Monday, and copper futures set a record, as speculators continued to bet on broad gains for the sector.

Gold futures for June delivery were last trading up $4.80 at $591.50 an ounce in electronic trade. The contract closed out the first quarter with a 13% gain, with most analysts expecting it to breach $600 an ounce in the near term.

Silver futures rose 11 cents to $11.63 an ounce, platinum added $11.40 to $1,070.80 an ounce, and palladium was up $7.10 at $343.90 an ounce.

Copper rose 6.2 cents to $2.525 a pound, its highest-ever level.

Data released Friday showed a sharp increase in speculation exposure to the precious-metals markets, with a big increase in funds' net long positions in Comex gold futures, said Kevin Norrish, analyst at Barclays Capital.

"The precious metals have found fresh buying interest early this week after an impressive rally late last week, with gold getting support from buying interest below $580 an ounce," he said.

Barclays analysts have become more bearish on the dollar and are now expecting the euro to rise to as high as $1.30 in the next 12 months, up from an earlier forecast of $1.26, said Norrish. That scenario would be extremely bullish for gold.

...more...

[UpInArms]

37. June Gold @ $592 oz - May Silver @ $11.67 - May Copper @ $2.531 lb

9:51 AM ET 4/3/06 JUNE GOLD UP $5.30 AT $592/OZ AFTER 25-YR HIGH OF $594.20

9:51 AM ET 4/3/06 MAY SILVER UP 15C AT $11.67/OZ AFTER 22-YR HIGH OF $11.78

9:51 AM ET 4/3/06 MAY COPPER UP 6.8C AT $2.531/LB AFTER RECORD HIGH OF $2.54

[UpInArms]

55. June Gold @ $596.80 oz (up $10.10)

10:48 AM ET 4/3/06 JUNE GOLD JUMPS $10.10, OR 1.7%, TO $596.80/OZ

[UpInArms]

67. June Gold @ $595.20 oz - May Silver @ $11.745 oz - May Copper @ $2.56 lb

11:57 AM ET 4/3/06 JUNE GOLD RISES $8.60, OR 1.5%, TO $595.20/OZ

11:57 AM ET 4/3/06 MAY SILVER UP 22.5C, OR 2%, AT $11.745/OZ

11:57 AM ET 4/3/06 MAY COPPER CLIMBS 9.7C, OR 3.9%, TO A RECORD $2.56/LB

[54anickel]

73. Gold set to become even scarcer

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/b997c8bc-c262-11da-ac03-0000779e2340.html

Bobby Godsell, chief executive of AngloGold Ashanti, predicted that worldwide gold production would stagnate, then fall in the coming years as large deposits of the precious metal become scarce.

He said this would support the rally in the gold price, which last week hit a 25-year high of $588 per ounce.

The South African company, the world’s third biggest gold producer, mined 6.2m ounces of gold in 2005 but expects production to be lower this year, between 5.8m and 6.1m ounces, and then increase again in 2007 as new projects come on stream.

But in an interview with the FT, Mr Godsell warned that the gold industry will find it hard to keep up current levels of production. “All of the gold majors are finding it difficult to replace their reserves. New mine production will be flat-to-declining.”

snip>

But he added: “Most M&A activity is value-destructive and this may be particularly true in the gold sector as gold shares trade at a premium.”

more...

[UpInArms]

76. Gold prices climb over $8 an ounce in afternoon trading - @ $595 oz

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B131699EC%2D5052%2D436A%2D9E95%2D4B9AA6793469%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- June gold climbed $8.30 or 1.4%, to $595 an ounce in afternoon trading, after reaching an intraday, 25-year high of $596.80. May silver was also up 23.5 cents at $11.755 an ounce following a 22-year high of $11.78. And May copper tacked on 9.3 cents, or 3.9%, to stand at $2.556 a pound after earlier trading at an all-time high of $2.56.

[UpInArms]

83. Silver futures end at 22-year high as gold nears $597

1:43 PM ET 4/3/06 MAY COPPER ENDS AT A RECORD $2.5475/LB, UP 8.45C, OR 3.4%

1:43 PM ET 4/3/06 MAY SILVER UP 24.5C TO END AT 22-YR HIGH OF $11.765/OZ

1:43 PM ET 4/3/06 JUNE GOLD UP $7.60 TO CLOSE AT 25-YR HIGH OF $594.30/OZ

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B7126A943%2D6B86%2D4616%2DA64D%2D9E871E75AE07%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- May silver climbed 24.5 cents, or 2.1%, to close at $11.765 an ounce after a 22-year high of $11.815. "ETF pre-empting looks set to continue and could test $12 this week," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com. June gold closed at $594.30 an ounce, up $7.60 for the session after a quarter-century high of $596.80. May copper reached a record of $2.5605 a pound before closing at $2.5475, up 8.45 cents, or 3.4%.

[UpInArms]

15. Enron makes $4.68 bln in distributions

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-03T123835Z_01_WEN3792_RTRIDST_0_ENRON-DISTRIBUTION-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, April 3 (Reuters) - Fallen energy giant Enron Corp. on Monday said it made a distribution of $4.68 billion to creditors as part of a regularly-scheduled twice-yearly pay-out following the company's bankruptcy.

Enron said the most recent distribution consisted of about $4.11 billion cash and $568 million in Portland General Electric Co. stock.

[UpInArms]

16. Customer satisfaction in tailspin at airlines

http://www.chicagotribune.com/travel/chi-0604030167apr03,1,320461.story?coll=chi-business-hed

WASHINGTON -- Travelers increasingly are unhappy with airlines, ranking lost luggage among their biggest complaints, according to an annual survey by university researchers that rates carriers' quality.

"They're less on time, they're losing bags at a rate they've never done before, and people are complaining again," said Dean Headley, co-author of the study being released Monday.

Passengers are now returning to pre-Sept. 11, 2001, levels, but there are 200,000 fewer airline employees to serve them, Headley said.

Passenger complaints increased 17 percent last year over 2004, and the rate of mishandled baggage jumped from 4.83 for every 1,000 passengers to 6.06 in 2005.

Customer satisfaction last year was the lowest since 2000, said Headley, an associate professor at Wichita State University in Kansas.

<snip>

Intense competition from low-fare airlines and high fuel prices have forced many traditional airlines to cut back or charge passengers for amenities.

...more...

[UpInArms]

17. The Poor Get Poorer

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/02/books/review/02reich.html?ex=1144728000&en=2fa5541d54f44db8&ei=5099&partner=TOPIXNEWS

It is not exactly a new debate. On my bookshelf sits "Which? Protection or Free Trade," edited by H. W. Furber and published in Boston in 1888. That was some 70 years after the British economist David Ricardo first suggested that the gains from trade exceed the losses regardless of whether trading partners are more or less economically advanced, as each nation shifts to where it has a comparative advantage. Most economists and policy makers now accept Ricardo's argument, although the popular debate over the merits of free trade continues.

The new and more interesting debate is about how the benefits of trade should be shared. During the 1990's, the so-called Washington consensus of officials from the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and United States Treasury Department thought the best way to spur growth in developing nations was for them to quickly lower their trade barriers and deregulate their markets. But that prescription hasn't worked especially well, even though it still shapes American trade policy. Apart from China and India, the gap between rich and poor nations has continued to widen. More than two billion people worldwide live on the equivalent of less than a dollar a day. Trade talks initiated in Doha, Qatar, in 2001, were intended to redress the balance but have gone nowhere. The last major international meeting, in 2003 in Cancún, Mexico, ended in failure and recrimination, and there's been little progress since. The world's poorer nations think the richer ones are still offering a lousy deal.

In their provocative book, "Fair Trade for All," Joseph E. Stiglitz, a professor of economics at Columbia, and Andrew Charlton, a research officer at the London School of Economics, argue that the poorer nations are right. A better deal would be for them to move toward free trade gradually, each according to its own particular circumstances. The authors urge richer nations to help poorer ones prepare themselves for trade, while dismantling their own trade barriers, which prevent developing nations from selling them many goods and services.

Stiglitz is worth listening to. A winner of the Nobel in economic science in 2001 for his pioneering work in the economics of information, he was a member and then chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers from 1993 to 1997 (during which time, in the interest of full disclosure, we frequently attended the same White House meetings), thereafter becoming chief economist and senior vice president of the World Bank. In other words, Stiglitz was in Washington when the Washington consensus was formed. He was a dissenter, however, and in recent years has been an outspoken critic of Washington's trade and global investment policies.

<snip>

Without these other institutions in place, the authors say, trade by itself can do more harm than good. They point out that inequality increased after trade was liberalized in Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica and Uruguay. Ten years after the North American Free Trade Agreement went into effect, Mexico's real wages are lower than they were before, and both inequality and poverty have grown. Many of the manufacturing jobs that came to Mexico in the wake of Nafta have since been lost to China, partly because China invested heavily in education and infrastructure while Mexico, lacking tariff revenues, couldn't afford to do so. According to Stiglitz and Charlton, every developing country that has succeeded in achieving rapid growth has protected its market to some extent until it was ready to dismantle trade barriers. China's growth, for example, escalated in the 1970's, before it lowered its barriers.

...more...

[54anickel]

28. The Slippery Slope (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20060331-fri.html#anchor0

The US Congress is working overtime on protectionism. As one senior Washington insider confided to me the other day, “concerns over China are boiling over in this town.” While extreme actions on the tariff front have been deferred -- at least for the moment -- it is starting to look as if an even bigger train has left the station. The angst of worker insecurity is proving to have irresistible bipartisan appeal within the American body politic. The odds are rising that Washington will enact some form of protectionist legislation before the mid-term elections this November. The dangerous slide down a slippery slope has begun.

The good news is that Senators Schumer and Graham have elected once again to defer a floor vote on their proposal for a so-called “currency-equalization tariff” of 27.5% that was to be levied on all Chinese imports into the US -- a surcharge they believe would provide fair compensation for an undervaluation of the RMB by a like amount. Last week in Beijing, they told me they had 80 votes in favor of their proposal, but we’ll never really know how solid that support was when it comes to going on record in favor of such a draconian action. There is a new threat of a 30 September floor vote on this measure, but my guess is that this type of extreme legislative action has now fallen out of favor in Washington.

In its place, a less contentious but very hard-hitting legislative option has now emerged -- “The United States Trade Enhancement Act of 2006 (USTEA06)” proposed by Senators Grassley (R-Iowa) and Baucus (D-Montana), the Chairman and ranking minority member of the all-powerful Senate Finance Committee. Unlike the Schumer-Graham proposal, this bill also appears to be far more palatable to the Bush Administration. In congressional testimony on 29 March, the Grassley-Baucus option was praised by senior officials from the US Treasury, the Department of Commerce, and the office of the US Trade Representative. This could well represent a sea change in the politics of trade legislation -- a bipartisan proposal with White House support.

In a nutshell, USTEA06 rewrites the book on how the United States both identifies and responds to external imbalances and currency “misalignments” -- the latter word being a deliberate and important substitute for the oft-contentious characterization of “manipulation” that has long plagued the foreign trade debate. The Grassley-Baucus bill empowers a new office in the US Treasury to develop a more sophisticated set of tools to identify those nations guilty of misalignments, and it establishes a consultation mechanism with the IMF and the US Trade Representative to arrive at this determination. Should a verdict of misalignment be rendered, USTEA06 offers a broad arsenal of remedial actions to be directed at the offending nation -- ranging from restrictions on trade finance, IMF voting rights, and the classification of a country’s trading status with the US. Unlike Schumer-Graham, which is a China-specific measure, the Grassley-Baucus proposal is more of a generic piece of legislation. But its sights are certainly set on the elephant in the room -- coming to grips with the biggest piece of America’s trade gap, a US-China bilateral trade deficit that hit $202 billion in 2005.

snip>

Trade has become the economic lightening rod in this political season. If anything, the pressures for legislative action will only intensify between now and the mid-term elections in early November. Within the Congress, support for action is bipartisan and deep -- and it’s building momentum by the day. A politically weakened White House is unlikely to buck the tide. All in all, politicians who are soft on trade will be characterized as unsupportive of the plight of the beleaguered American middle-class wage earner. With the political fix increasingly at odds with the macro fix, the odds of a disruptive US current account adjustment are rising.

more...

[AnneD]

46. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: I found the last part of that article one of the most pertanant.
<snip>
While Stiglitz and Charlton nobly assert that trade agreements should be viewed as presumptively unfair if they bestow disproportionate benefits on richer nations, they fail to acknowledge that within richer nations free trade is already disproportionately benefiting the best educated and best connected. The wealthy are growing much wealthier while the middle class is being squeezed. In fact, the adjustment mechanisms the authors find lacking in most developing economies — good public schools, modern infrastructure and adequate social safety nets — are coming to be less and less available even in America. Free trade surely generates the gains Ricardo claimed for it. But until those gains are more widely shared — within richer countries as well as between richer and poorer — we can kiss any further round of trade liberalization goodbye.
<snip>

That pretty much sums the middle classes race to the bottom. Within the next 2 months my rent will go up over $100 per month and I don't see gas declining. The place I am looking at is smaller, older, no ammenities but safer and the same price. It is housing that until a few year ago, I would have thought that poor or lower middle class would be living in. Funny thing is, all around this out of the way place are condo's for the rich and professionals. Talk about having to swallow a lot of resentment on a daily basis. Well welcome to the new world order. Wait, let me abjust that kick me sign on the back of my shirt.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears. I think they are getting hungry.

[specimenfred1984]

49. That's the Way it is Around Here in Va Too

Everything, and I mean 1000s of homes and townhomes are selling for $500,000 - $1,400,000 and of course, nobody is buying them. With a large chunk of the population aging and that chunk of people being the ones with some minor wealth accumulation, it doesn't make a bit of sense to be trying to sell 5,000+ square foot Mcmansions that an older person can't even walk around in, much less afford.

A home that was considered lower class just 2 years ago, albeit near a country club, is now "being offered" at $650,000. It won't sell for that, it's a hyper-inflated fraud being pushed by an entire system of fraud.

Something else going on around here is the rental homes always have at least 7 cars parked at them, because it takes about 7 incomes to be able to afford it. This NYT article says that for the 1st time ever, there is nowhere in the entire U.S. where a person can now afford rent on a minimum wage income:

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/02/us/02cars.html?hp&ex=1144040400&en=818f2f244457111d&ei=5094&partner=homepage

--- ...Last year was the first year on record, according to an annual study conducted by the National Low Income Housing Coalition, that a full-time worker at minimum wage could not afford a one-bedroom apartment anywhere in the country at average market rates. ---

[AnneD]

78. Thanks..

I'll quit my bitching because at least I have a roof over my head. Many don't have that luxury. Right now there is a high occupancy rate because of all the Katrina evacuees. What will be interesting to see is what happens to the market once the vouchers are pulled and these evacuees are going to have to be self sufficient. I got a good deal on the apartment I am living in because there was a low occupancy rate. Now they think that I am going to pay more (esp after Hubby was mugged one time and I was mugged too)for the privilege of living there. They should be happy I didn't break my lease. Lot of folks are moving out now (good tenants that are tired of the muggings).

[54anickel]

81. New Math on Homes

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/shedlock/shedlock040306.html

I find it interesting the number of complete fools hopping on the "no bubble bandwagon." The 2% maintenance figure is of course questionable, but I am very surprised that no one questioned the key assumption that house prices will rising 6% a year from now until eternity.

It simply does not wash. Here is something that does. Long term prices of houses simply can not rise above people's means to pay for them. That is a simple economic fact. Here is another simple economic fact: Family incomes are falling. The negative savings rate and rising foreclosures are more proof of stress in the system. Real wages have fallen for 4 consecutive years and that includes some pretty fat bonuses of the Wall Street fat cats at the top end.

The fact is that home prices are several standard deviations above norm in terms of affordability in many locations. Gary and Margaret Smith are simply making the classic mistake of projecting into the future what has happened over the last 10-20 years as if it that period is the norm. That is the same type of mentality used to justify the Nasdaq bubble in Spring of 2000.

At 6% appreciation a year home prices would double again in 12 years. That nifty 3 bedroom shack in California now priced at $800,000 would supposedly go for $1.6 million in 12 short years. That $750,000 condo in Florida supposedly would be going for $1.5 million 12 years from now. Sorry, I do not think so. Who could afford to buy them? Buyers are already stretched.

Did the Smith's factor in property taxes? Did they factor in the possibility of rising federal taxes? Did they factor in the possibility of a ball breaking recession? Did they factor in global wage arbitrage that is working to suppress wages in the US? Did they factor in possible effects of a baby boomer retirement?

more...

[AnneD]

94. This points up to the fallacy of the currrent admin (GOP)

philosophy of favoring the wealthy over the middle class. To qoute George Bailey of the Bailey Savings and Loans "to you...they're (middle class and working poor) cattle.....they do most of the living, working, and dieing in this town. Is is it too much to ask that they be able to live and work and die in a couple a decent rooms with a bath. Well you guys are business men, doesn't it make 'em better citizens or something."

If most folks don't have a decent income, they can't consume and you have more expensive goods chasing fewer customers. I suscribe to a floating boats idea. Our economy is only as good (bouyant) as the ability of the boat in the shallow end to float.

[UpInArms]

18. Hollinger International turns to loss in fiscal 2005

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsarticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyid=2006-03-31T231419Z_01_WEN3737_RTRUKOC_0_US-MEDIA-HOLLINGERINTERNATIONAL.xml

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Publisher Hollinger International Inc. (HLR.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Friday said it has filed its Annual Report on Form 10-K for fiscal 2005 with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The company reported total operating revenues of $458 million and an operating loss of $10 million, compared with operating revenues of $464 million and an operating loss of $22 million for fiscal 2004.

Hollinger reported a net loss per share of 13 cents, compared with year-ago net income per share of $2.59.

[UpInArms]

20. Treasurys open sharply lower on interest rate fears

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=e0655c66-ec46-4836-80ab-0b72cde0395a&siteid=mktw&dist=MorePulse

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Treasurys fell sharply early Monday, tracking declines in Japanese and European bonds, after stronger-than-expected data from both regions bolstered expectations of higher interest rates across the globe. The benchmark 10-year note was last trading down 10/32 at 96 30/32. Its yield, used in setting corporate and mortgage borrowing rates, climbed to 4.89% from 4.853% late Friday. The 30-year was down 17/32 at 93 10/32, yielding 4.9%. The yield curve steepened with the 2-year yield at 4.858%.

[54anickel]

21. Treasuries Mired in Worst Slump Since 1999 as Fed Raises Rates

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a_FpIm7gFm9c&refer=us

April 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries are off to their worst annual start in seven years and may drop further after the Federal Reserve signaled that interest rates will rise.

U.S. government debt of all maturities lost an average of 1.2 percent this year, compared with a 1.6 percent decline in the first quarter of 1999, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. index data. Treasuries fell 0.3 percent after the central bank last week lifted rates by a quarter point for a 15th consecutive time, to 4.75 percent, and said ``further policy firming may be needed.''

snip>

Treasuries fell as the Standard & Poor's 500 Index of stocks posted its biggest first-quarter gain in seven years, rising 3.73 percent. In 1999, Treasuries declined 2.38 percent, the only loss in the past 11 years.

Dashed Hopes

Optimism ran high at the start of the year that the Fed was almost done raising rates. The government said on Jan. 6 that the nation added about half the jobs in December as forecast by economists. A separate report three weeks later showed that gross domestic product in the fourth quarter expanded at the slowest pace since the end of 2002.

Treasuries began their decline after industry reports showed gains in manufacturing and on signs of rising consumer and business confidence. The Institute of Supply Management said on March 1 its index rose in February for the first time in four months. The Labor Department said March 10 the economy added 243,000 jobs a month earlier, the most since November's gain of 354,000.

``The market thinks the U.S. economy will be stronger than they thought a few months ago,'' David Goldman, head of fixed- income research at Cantor Fitzgerald in New York, said last week. ``That's been the big surprise.''

more...

[UpInArms]

24. 10-yield Treasury yield hits 4-yr peak before ISM

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-03T125329Z_01_N03263697_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, April 3 (Reuters) - The benchmark U.S. Treasury note's yield climbed through 4.905 percent early on Monday to a near 4-year high as investors continued to bet on more Federal Reserve interest rate increases.

The runup in yields happened in higher than average volume trading early in the New York session as bond market participants sold some Treasuries ahead of a key U.S. manufacturing report which investors were betting would prove fairly robust.

The 10-year note's yield, which moves inversely to its price, rose to the highest since June 2002, <US10YT=RR> down 13/32 in price for a yield of 4.907 early on Monday from 4.853 percent late on Friday, before trading at 4.896 percent.

Two-year notes <US2YT=RR> were trading 2/32 lower in price for a yield of 4.866 percent, from 4.824 percent late on Friday.

The Institute for Supply Management's March manufacturing index is due for release at 10:00 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT), with economists forecasting a reading of 57.9, up from 56.7 in February.

...more...

[UpInArms]

85. 10-year yields flirting with 4.90%

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B2DA4D27A%2DB89A%2D4F8E%2D841D%2DB05E6ECD2FC2%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Treasury prices were held lower Monday by a stronger-than-anticipated inflation warning in an otherwise soft reading on the factory sector.

The Institute for Supply Management said its March sentiment index fell to 55.2% from 56.7% in February, below the 57.3% expected. The reading is still well above the 50% cutoff that indicates a growing factory sector. See Economic Report.

The price paid index rose to a four-month high of 66.5% from 62.5%, ISM said.

Yields on the benchmark 10-year note had broken through the 4.90% level in overnight trades, before "short-covering and bottom-fishing stabilized the market," analysts at Action Economics wrote.

In recent trades, the 10-year was yielding 4.87%, up two basis points from
Friday's close at 4.85%. The 10-year has not closed above 4.90% for nearly four years.

Demand was strong for the weekly auction of bills, indicating some investors are taking a defensive stance by switching to cash.

...more...

[UpInArms]

31. Printing Press Report:Fed adds temporary bank reserves via overnight repos

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-03T133523Z_01_N03278598_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, April 3 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Monday that it added temporary reserves to the banking system via overnight repurchase agreements.

The benchmark fed funds rate last traded at 4.813 percent, above the Fed's current target of 4.75 percent for the overnight lending rate on loans between banks.

Further details of the operations are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[UpInArms]

82. Today's Treasury Auction Results:

1:11 PM ET 4/3/06 TREASURY 6-MONTH BILLS ATTRACT 2.46 BID-TO-COVER RATIO

1:11 PM ET 4/3/06 TREASURY 3-MONTH BILLS ATTRACT 2.51 BID-TO-COVER RATIO

1:11 PM ET 4/3/06 TREASURY AUCTIONS 6-MONTH BILLS AT 4.67%

1:11 PM ET 4/3/06 TREASURY AUCTIONS 3-MONTH BILLS AT 4.535%

It appears that short-term bills have a better chance at auction :eyes:

[ozymandius]

23. Verizon to Sell Latin America Units

NEW YORK - Verizon Communications Inc. on Monday said it has agreed to sell its Caribbean and Latin American telecommunications operations to America Movil SA de CV and a unit jointly owned by Mexico's Telmex for $3.7 billion.

In three separate transactions, Verizon said it is selling telecommunications provider Verizon Dominicana in the Dominican Republic; divesting its 52 percent interest in Telecomunicaciones de Puerto Rico Inc. and selling a roughly 29 percent stake in Compania Anonima Nacional Telefonos de Venezuela.

Chairman and Chief Executive Ivan Seidenberg said the businesses "represent a small part of our revenue base that is less aligned with our core business focus and future growth."

America Movil, which provides wireless service throughout Latin America, acquires the Dominican Republic unit and stake in the Puerto Rico business under the deal. A company co-owned by America Movil and Mexico's Telefonos de Mexico is buying the Venezuela business.

more...

[UpInArms]

25. Freddie Mac names former MBNA exec as auditor

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-03T125706Z_01_WEN3799_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-FREDDIE-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, April 3 (Reuters) - Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Monday said it hired a former MBNA executive, Kirk Die, as senior vice president and general auditor overseeing the mortgage finance company's internal audit activities.

Kirk will report directly to the board's audit committee and administratively to Freddie's chairman and chief executive officer.

[ozymandius]

26. Exxon Dethrones Wal-Mart on Fortune 500

NEW YORK (AP) -- Skyrocketing energy prices propelled Exxon Mobil Corp. to the top of the 2006 Fortune 500 list, and consigned Wal-Mart Stores Inc. to the No. 2 spot on the magazine's annual ranking of the nation's largest publicly traded companies.

Fortune compiled its list based on companies' 2005 revenues. Exxon Mobil raked in $340 billion in revenue, a 25.5 percent increase over 2004, and had $36.1 billion in profits, the most by any U.S. company in history.

Exxon Mobil last appeared at No. 1 in 2001. Only Wal-Mart, Exxon Mobil and General Motors Corp. have topped the list since its inception in 1954.

Wal-Mart had $315.654 billion in revenue, a 9.5 percent increase from last year. Because of its pervasive U.S. presence, the world's largest retailer has struggled to sustain profit growth in the high teens as it had in previous years.

more...

[UpInArms]

27. Alcatel-Lucent merger to result in 8,800 job cuts

http://www.fortwayne.com/mld/journalgazette/business/14251040.htm

PARIS – Alcatel SA will acquire U.S.-based Lucent Technologies Inc. in a $13.4 billion stock swap to form a stronger player in the fiercely competitive telecom equipment market, the companies announced Sunday. About 8,800 jobs will be cut.

The combined business, to be based in Paris, will make the most of fast-growing converged offerings such as “triple-play” Internet, phone and TV packages, the companies said. It will have annual sales of $25 billion – ahead of LM Ericsson’s $19.9 billion.

<snip>

The savings will come from a 10 percent cut to the 88,000-strong combined global workforce as well as from consolidated purchasing, support services and research.

The new Alcatel-Lucent – whose new name is to be announced later – should be better equipped to weather intense competition in the telecom equipment market.

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

29. pre-opening blather

09:13 ET S&P futures vs fair value: +6.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.0.

09:00 ET S&P futures vs fair value: +6.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.3. Futures trade continues to suggest that the stock market will start strongly. The early tone remains solidly bullish, despite the fact that Treasury yields are again on the rise. At this point, the benchmark 10-year note is down 10 ticks and up to a 4.89% yield. There are a few items on the economic calendar that may affect trade. Today's top item, due out at 10:00 ET, is the March ISM Index; economists expect a read of 57.7. At the same time, the February Construction Spending report (consensus 0.5%) will hit the wires. Auto and truck sales for the month of March will also be released throughout the session.

08:30 ET S&P futures vs fair value: +7.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.0. The cash market remains poised for a solidly higher start. There are some items on the M&A front that are helping to underpin the positive tone. Along with the GMAC sale, there are reports that Constellation Brands (STZ) will acquire Canadian winemaker Vincor, and that Iconix Brand (ICON) has agreed to purchase Mossimo (MOSS) as well as the Mudd trademark. Iconix also raised its full-year EPS guidance.

07:58 ET S&P futures vs fair value: +7.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.0. Futures trade is signaling a solidly higher start for the stock market. There are several catalysts behind the bullish bias. Some of them include reports that GM has sold a majority stake in GMAC to Cerberus Capital, news that Lucent (LU) and Alcatel (ALA) have agreed to a merger pact, a positive Barron's cover story on Microsoft (MSFT), and big gains in Asian markets. Beginning of quarter inflows is also helping to fuel early buying interest.

[UpInArms]

30. 9:33 EST YIPPEE! YAHOO! RAH! RAH! Party in Progress!

Dow 11,169.98 +60.66 (+0.55%)
Nasdaq 2,350.62 +10.83 (+0.46%)
S&P 500 1,294.82 0.00 (0.00%)
10-Yr Bond 48.92 +0.39 (+0.80%)

NYSE Volume 114,454,000
Nasdaq Volume 89,624,000

[UpInArms]

33. U.S. stocks rise sharply amid billion-dollar deals

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-03T133959Z_01_N03194874_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-STOCKS-UPDATE-3.XML

NEW YORK, April 3 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks opened sharply higher on Monday as brisk acquisition action, including several deals in the telecommunications sector, stirred enthusiasm for equities.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> was up 56.67 points, or 0.51 percent, at 11,165.99. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.GSPC> was up 5.93 points, or 0.46 percent at 1300.76. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was up 11.77 points, or 0.50 percent, at 2,351.56.

[UpInArms]

32. Wolfowitz looks at opening World Bank Iraq office

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=uri:2006-04-02T202216Z_01_N02234663_RTRUKOC_0_US-IRAQ-WORLDBANK.xml

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz is considering expanding bank operations in Iraq, which would put his agency at the center of rebuilding from a war he helped plan as the Pentagon's former No. 2 official.

Senior bank officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because no final decision had been made, said key donor countries including Britain, Japan, Germany and Denmark are pressuring Wolfowitz to establish a Baghdad office.

The development agency has not had a Iraq office since an August 19, 2003, bombing at U.N. headquarters in Iraq killed a bank employee. A consultant, with a staff of seven Iraqis, is paid by the World Bank looks after its affairs in Iraq.

No World Bank staff would be forced to accept an Iraq assignment, the officials said.

<snip>

The possibility of a new World Bank office revives attention to Wolfowitz's role as an architect of the Iraq war. Many critics have accused the Bush administration and the Pentagon in particular of failing to plan for a post-invasion Iraq, as violence rages three years after Saddam Hussein's ouster.

Michael O'Hanlon, a reconstruction expert at Washington's Brookings Institute, said Wolfowitz's history with Iraq "complicates everything."

...more...

[UpInArms]

36. Louis Sito Surrenders To Feds In 'Newsday' Circ Fraud

http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1002276077

CHICAGO Louis Sito--the executive who apparently jump-started Newday's stalled circulation while creating the other seemingly fast-growing Spanish-language daily Hoy--has surrendered to federal authorities on charges related to circulation fraud at the papers, Newsday reported Monday.

Sito will plead guilty when he is arraigned on fraud charges, and has agreed to cooperate with investigators, according to the story by staff writers Robert E. Kessler and James T. Madore. The story quoted "sources familiar with the surrender."

<snip>

Sito was publisher of Hoy and vice president of Hispanic Media for Tribune Co. in 2000 when it was discovered that Newsday's circulation had been inflated by nearly 100,000 copies--and that Hoy had barely half the circulation it claimed.

Citing unnamed sources, Newsday has previously reported that a circulation subcontractor has alleged to authorities that he paid $1 million in kickbacks during the 1990s.

Tribune paid advertisers about $90 million in restitution related to the circulation fraud.

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

41. 10:07 EST PARTY! PARTY! PARTY!

Dow 11,188.32 +79.00 (+0.71%)
Nasdaq 2,349.38 +9.59 (+0.41%)
S&P 500 1,302.93 +8.11 (+0.63%)
10-Yr Bond 4.892 +0.39 (+0.80%)

NYSE Volume 385,325,000
Nasdaq Volume 324,853,000

[UpInArms]

43. Ferro completes 2003, 2004 restatements

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-03T140419Z_01_N03279467_RTRIDST_0_CHEMICALS-FERRO-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, April 3 (Reuters) - Industrial coatings and performance chemicals company Ferro Corp. (FOE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Monday said it had completed its restatements for 2003 and the first quarter of 2004 and filed its 2004 annual report.

The company also said auditor KPMG had expressed substantial doubt that it could continue as a going concern after it had received a notice of default from a holder of some of its notes for failure to file timely financial reports.

Even if that holder accelerates repayment and triggers a cross-default, Ferro said, a new credit facility will let it repay any such debt.

...more...

[UpInArms]

44. Auto Sales Expected to Mirror Recent Trend (Downward)

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-preview3.2apr03,1,2137412.story?coll=la-headlines-business

U.S. sales of vehicles are expected to have followed a familiar path last month, with General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. losing market share to nimble foreign rivals led by Toyota Motor Corp., analysts said.

Toyota and other Asian automakers have been relentlessly stealing U.S. sales from Ford and GM, which have been struggling with excess inventory and a shift in buyers' tastes from larger sport utility vehicles.

GM sales analyst Paul Ballew told reporters last week that his company's U.S. retail and fleet sales were expected to be down in March from a year earlier. He also expected the overall industry to come in lower.

With automakers preparing to report today, analysts expect U.S. sales of GM to be off 2% to 6% from a year earlier.

Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy said benefits from GM's new GMT900 series of SUVs, which the automaker hopes will revive sales, are still a way off.

Murphy expects Ford sales to have declined about 7% in March.

...more...

[UpInArms]

61. Fewer fleet sales to dent March results

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/6K4CtF1hzs3fN9ChjlGw1wq?siteid=mktw&dist=morenews

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Monthly U.S. auto sales figures due out next week likely will be the weakest yet in 2006, as American automakers reduce their reliance on corporate and rental sales, analysts say.

At the same time, high gasoline prices are making a big dent in sales of big trucks and SUVs.

General Motors' waning dominance of the U.S. market will again be a highlight in the March results, scheduled to be reported Monday. Analysts expect lower sales from GM, and Ford Motor, while foreign rivals are expected to report increases.
Bear Stearns expects GM (GM 20.97, -0.30, -1.4% ) sales to fall 8% from last year, according to a research note.

"While fleet sales have been cushioning the blow of weak retail sales (particularly for Ford and Chrysler in February), the Big Three have been promising to de-emphasize this side of the business and headline numbers could suffer as a result," Bear Stearns analysts wrote in a new report for clients.

New designs

The spotlight will be on GM's redesigned large SUVs like the Chevrolet Tahoe and GMC Yukon.

"We believe the success of the GMT900 platform is integral to the turnaround of GM's ailing North American automotive operations," Calyon Securities analysts wrote.

...more...

[UpInArms]

47. 10:26 EST TRIPLE DIGITS! RAH! RAH! SISS! BOOM! BAH!

Dow 11,218.66 +109.34 (+0.98%)
Nasdaq 2,354.37 +14.58 (+0.62%)
S&P 500 1,305.14 +10.32 (+0.80%)
10-Yr Bond 4.892 +0.39 (+0.80%)

NYSE Volume 387,449,000
Nasdaq Volume 327,061,000

(edited to add blather)

10:25 ET The market continues to advance in the wake of the ISM Index at 10:00 ET. The national gauge of manufacturing activity checked in at 55.2. That was slightly below the consensus estimate of 57.7, but it is at a level that is still indicative of expansion. Following the data, bonds eased a little bit. However, the 10-year is still pushing 4.90% - a level not seen in almost four years. Separately, the February Construction Spending report was released at the same time, and it came in at a stronger than expected 0.8% (consensus 0.5%). Today's docket also includes last month's auto and truck sales, which will be released throughout the session. With respect to the week's economic front, the March Employment report is the featured item. It's due out Friday morning, and will be closely watched.

10:00 ET The indices are advancing. At this point, each of the ten economic sectors are enjoying buying interest. With commodities on the rise, the Energy (+1.1%) and Materials (+1.2%) are faring best. Copper (+3.1%) is leading the charge, followed by silver (+1.6%) and gold (+1.0%). Prices across the energy complex are led by natural gas (+0.9%). Crude is currently 0.7% higher and trading at $67.10 per barrel; heating oil (+0.8%) and gasoline (+0.3%) are also on gaining ground. The Energy and Materials sectors are leading the market's advance, and 0.4% and 0.8% gains in the Financial and Tech sectors, respectively, are adding strong momentum.

09:40 ET As futures trade had foreshadowed, the major indices opened well above the unchanged mark. (Note: We have corrected our original post that indicated the S&P 500 opened lower as we discovered the feed from our data provider was still listing Friday's closing level). The Treasury market, meanwhile, remains on the defensive as the yield on the 10-yr note is now pushing 4.90%. That point shouldn't be overlooked as we suspect rising market rates will serve as a deterrent for more convincing buying efforts. As a side note, the 10-year hasn't seen 4.90% since June of 2002. A couple of other factors may also temper enthusiasm. Wal-Mart (WMT) said that it expects a 1.3% same-store sales gain for March, which is at the low-end of its previously guided range, and energy prices are still rising.

[ozymandius]

52. gorging at the trough continues

10:48
Dow 11,235.55 +126.23 (+1.14%)
Nasdaq 2,357.10 +17.31 (+0.74%)
S&P 500 1,307.82 +13.00 (+1.00%)
10-Yr Bond 48.84 +0.31 (+0.64%)
NYSE Volume 664,407,000
Nasdaq Volume 548,795,000

[spanone]

54. What is fueling this feeding frenzy????

[ozymandius]

56. bargain hunting

Tomorrow we will call it a sucker rally.

[UpInArms]

57. here's the spin: Stocks surge on M&A deals

GM sells GMAC stake; Lucent to be bought by Alcatel

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks rallied Monday as solid gains in overseas markets and a slew of merger and acquisition deals led by General Motors Corp's sale of a majority stake in its GMAC financing arm, got the second quarter off to a positive start.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU 11,221.62, +112.30, +1.0% ) was up 108 points at 11,217.

The Nasdaq Composite Index ($COMPQ 2,355.58, +15.79, +0.7% ) rose 15 points to 2,354 while the S&P 500 Index ($SPX 1,306.53, +11.70, +0.9% ) climbed 10 points to 1,305.28.

"The data is a mix of good and bad, but the reports show the economy is continuing to chug along at a steady pace," said John Forelli, senior vice president and portfolio manager at Independence Investments. "But driving the market today is the positive psychology around the mergers that have been announced."

Historical performance suggests invests can expect a solid kick-off to the second quarter.

The Dow industrials have ended the first session of the month with gains 8 out the last 11 times, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.

April is still the best month in the year for the blue-chip index, with an average gain of 1.8% since 1950, the Almanac said.

...more...

Crystal-ball gazing or reading tea-leaves :crazy:

[specimenfred1984]

62. Don't Forget Oil ETFs -- Exchange Traded Funds

Crude oil ETFs are supposed to be approved this week, allowing for even more speculation in the crude oil markets. Massive speculation, corrupt banks and a repuke admin: sounds like the 1920s. If so, we're only 1 event away from a depression. Could that event be a "terrorist" attack blamed on Syria and Iran? It would give the corrupt banks time to shut down again, like on 9/11 and allow them to come back into the markets at a much lower price for everything after "making sure the markets were stable".

We're looking at pure corruption, anything's possible.

[UpInArms]

59. Citadel gets U.S. antitrust OK for ABC (Disney) Radio

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-03T151526Z_01_N03318861_RTRIDST_0_MEDIA-ABCRADIO-ANTITRUST.XML

WASHINGTON, April 3 (Reuters) - Citadel Broadcasting Corp (CDL.N: Quote, Profile, Research) has received U.S. antitrust approval to acquire industry rival ABC Radio from Walt Disney Co. (DIS.N: Quote, Profile, Research), U.S. officials said on Monday.

Antitrust authorities have completed their review of the $2.7 billion deal without taking any action to block it, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission said in a notice.

Citadel, which is majority-owned by investment firm Forstmann Little & Co., announced in February it would buy the ABC Radio assets. Disney said at that time it planned to break off ABC's 22 radio stations and the ABC Radio Networks programming business into a separate entity, which would then be combined with Citadel to make the transaction tax-free for Disney shareholders.

[UpInArms]

65. Probe into corruption reaches DeLay's inner circle, sources say

http://www.kansas.com/mld/kansas/news/politics/14250359.htm

WASHINGTON - The latest plea deal in the GOP lobbying corruption scandal has moved the investigation to Rep. Tom DeLay's inner circle, congressional insiders said.

DeLay's former deputy chief of staff, Tony Rudy, 39, did not implicate him in any wrongdoing when he pleaded guilty Friday to conspiracy in the case involving convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

But Rudy did finger his ex-boss - DeLay's former chief of staff Ed Buckham - as playing a role in the congressional bribery scandal.

"They were Batman and Robin. Tony didn't do anything without Buckham's say-so. ... Buckham was Batman," said a knowledgeable source.

<snip>

"This is a line of falling dominoes, and it's getting closer to DeLay - the investigation is within his inner circle now," said Naomi Seligman, deputy director of the liberal group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington.

...more...

[UpInArms]

66. G-7 meeting to be held on April 21: U.S. Treasury's Fratto

I guess they have put a sock in the SnowJob's piehole - Fratto is the only issuing statements these days. :eyes:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B341E000B%2D99C1%2D4A7F%2DA487%2DCDFB82CAB140%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The next meeting of the G-7 finance ministers and central bank governors will be held on Friday, April 21, said Treasury spokesman Tony Fratto. The officials will discuss how the global economy is functioning and look at ways it can function better, Fratto said. Topics to be discussed include the large U.S. current account deficit and related Chinese trade surplus and currency reserves, energy prices, terrorist financing, and reform of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. Fratto said it was too soon to say if the G-7 would invite finance officials from other key market economies, including China, to participate in some of the discussions.

[54anickel]

69. A Notable Quarter of Global Asset Inflation (End of Credit Bubble Bulletin

http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp

I believe it’s worth detailing the first quarter’s broad based global equities market asset inflation. London’s FTSE100 gained 6.15%, Germany’s DAX 10.29%, France’s CAC40 10.72%, Spain’s IBEX 10.44%, the Swiss Market Index 5.79%, Italy’s MIB 7.40%, Portugal’s PSI 17.71%, the Irish Overall Index 9.53%, Iceland’s ICEX index 6.50%, Netherland’s Amsterdam Exchanges Index 7.30%, Belgium’s BEL20 10.2%, Luxembourg LuxX index 14.6%, Denmark’s OMX Copenhagen 20 0.4%, Finland’s Helsinki index 15.2%, Norway’s OBX index 18.1%, Sweden’s Stockholm 30 index 10.41%, and Austria’s Austrian Traded ATX 12.9%.

Greece’s major equities index jumped 12.5%, Turkey 7.9%, Cyprus 44.4%, Malta 30.7%, Bulgaria 5.4%, Poland 13.0%, Czech Republic 3.5%, Hungary 11.0%, Romania 13.9%, Ukraine 21.3%, Slovakia 0.9%, and Croatia 21.8%. On the downside, Slovenia declined 4.1%, Estonia slipped 0.4%, Latvia dropped 8.9%, and Lithuania fell 5.1%. The major equities index in South Africa jumped 11.43%, Tunisia 15.8%, Morocco 32.8%, Namibia 14.5%, Botswana 9.68%, Egypt 4.4% and Kenya 3.6%.

Some of the highflying Middle East markets came back to earth a little. The Kuwait Global index fell 12.24%, Qatar’s DSM index dropped 19.1%, Israel’s Tel Aviv 25 index declined 1.2%, Bahrain fell 3.6% and Jordan dropped 13.7%. The wild Saudi SE index actually ended the quarter up 2.08%, with a 52-week gain of 62%.

Asia remains strong. The Nikkei 225 rose 5.89%, with a 12-month rise of 46%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 6.24%, China’s Shanghai A 11.5%, China’s Shanghai B 42.4% and South Korea’s KRX 0.52%. The major equities index in Singapore rose 7.93%, Thailand 2.73%, Malaysia 2.98%, Philippines 4.77%, Indonesia 13.79%, Vietnam 63.76%, and Sri Lanka 17.8%. Australia ASX 200 gained 7.69%, and New Zealand’s NZX 50 rose 9.85%. India’s Sensex jumped 20.0% and Pakistan’s Karachi 100 20.19%.

snip>

...Little wonder global bond markets are in retreat.

more...

[54anickel]

71. This chart says long bond yields are heading higher

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=53087

When I first started working as an economist for a large investment house, I foolishly ridiculed my older colleagues’ fascination with charts and technical analysis. Several humbling experiences later it dawned on me that (trying to) listen to what the markets were saying might not be a bad idea. The chart of US long bond yields set out below seems to me to be speaking very loudly indeed.

In a prior piece entitled “US Bonds: A Gift that Should Keep on Giving”, or a Pig in a Poke?” I disagreed with then bond bullish views of Pimco’s Bill Gross - he seems to have changed his mind somewhat in his April Investment Outlook - and set out a bearish fundamental case on bonds.

The bear case has recently received strong support from bond price developments. The chart is a technically alarming one for bond bulls (I have deliberately chosen a long term chart with quarterly data to eliminate short term noise). Firstly, the long term trend - as shown by the two year moving average - is strongly upwards. Secondly, yields have decisively broken up through very strong resistance between 4.40% and 4.60%. Thirdly, yields have also broken through the twelve-year downtrend obtained by joining the peak levels attained in 1994 and 1999. My reading of this chart is that US ten year bond yields are likely to move up to test the next major resistance at around 5.40% to 5.60%, as represented by the peaks in 2001 and the low of 1995. I stress this is a medium term expectation rather than a short term one.

more...

[54anickel]

80. Stocks Surge on Tempered Economic Data

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060403/wall_street.html?.v=11

Stocks Surge on Tempered Economic Data to Start Second Quarter; Dow Climbs More Than 120 Points


NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street rallied at the start of the second quarter Monday, with evidence of a moderating economy and acquisition activity lifting stocks and sending the Dow Jones industrial average up more than 120 points.

An unexpected slowing of growth in the manufacturing sector fed hopes that the Federal Reserve will soon end its string of interest rate hikes, while an upswing in spending on residential construction alleviated fears of a housing market crash.

The day's mixed economic news showed that the economy continues to move forward at a healthy pace but is beginning to taper off, said Jay Suskind, head trader at Ryan, Beck & Co. That bodes well for investors anxious about indications from the Fed last week that it will keep lifting rates to restrain economic growth and inflation.

"I think it's the same old story: The economy certainly surprises us by how resilient it is," Suskind said. However, Suskind said he feels investors would rather continue seeing some growth at the expense of higher interest rates.

more...

[UpInArms]

86. Job Insecurity Takes Major Toll on Worker Health

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=97&e=5&u=/hsn/20060403/hl_hsn/jobinsecuritytakesmajortollonworkerhealth

MONDAY, April 3 (HealthDay News) -- Job insecurity can have a major impact on the health of American workers, says a University of Michigan study.

Feeling insecure about your job harms both mental and physical health -- whether you actually lose your job or not. The toll taken by job insecurity can be as great as a serious or life-threatening illness, the study said.

Researchers analyzed information from more than 1,000 men and women, under age 60, who underwent two interviews, about three years apart. About 25 percent of the people in the study reported feeling insecure about their jobs in at least one of the two interviews.

<snip>

Job insecurity was especially hard on the well-being of black workers, the study found. Black workers who felt constantly insecure about their jobs were nearly three times as likely as insecure whites and more than four times as likely as secure whites to report very high levels of depressive symptoms.

The findings suggest that there may be worker health repercussions as the result of current trends in the U.S. labor market, such as outsourcing, downsizing and the increase in nonstandard jobs with reduced hours and benefits.

...more...

[UpInArms]

89. Rep. Thomas: U.S., EU trade differences 'irreconcilable'

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B859FB7E2%2DEB51%2D41B1%2DA07E%2D4B96BF5EC384%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- "Irreconcilable differences" over trade policy between the United States and the European Union have crippled the Doha round of world trade talks, House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Bill Thomas, R-Calif., said Monday, in a speech at the American Enterprise Institute. As a result, Washington and Brussels should probably "part ways," allowing U.S. negotiators to focus on bilateral trade agreements, said Thomas, whose committee has jurisdiction over trade issues. "Obviously we don't just walk away" from Doha, Thomas said, but the global round shouldn't be where the United States put major resources at this time.

[UpInArms]

90. Today's Tune is brought you by S&G

A winter’s day
In a deep and dark december;
I am alone,
Gazing from my window to the streets below
On a freshly fallen silent shroud of snow.
I am a rock,
I am an island.
I’ve built walls,
A fortress deep and mighty,
That none may penetrate.
I have no need of friendship; friendship causes pain.
It’s laughter and it’s loving I disdain.
I am a rock,
I am an island.

Don’t talk of peace,
But I’ve heard the words before;
It’s sleeping in my memory.
I won’t disturb the slumber of feelings that have died.
If I never warred I always would have cried.
I am a rock,
I am an island.

I have my crooks
And my lackeys to protect me;
I am shielded in my armor,
Hiding in my room, safe within my womb.
I touch no one and no one touches me.
I am a rock,
I am an island.

And a rock feels no pain;
And an island never cries.

With apologies to Simon and Garfunkel

[AnneD]

97. Primo

:thumbsup:

So I guess if the market craps out tomorrow the tune will be 50 ways to leave your lover?

[UpInArms]

92. 2:51 EST enthusiasm waning

Dow 11,191.76 +82.44 (+0.74%)
Nasdaq 2,341.88 +2.09 (+0.09%)
S&P 500 1,302.36 +7.54 (+0.58%)
10-Yr Bond 4.876 +0.23 (+0.47%)

NYSE Volume 1,813,273,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,497,150,000

14:30 ET
Dow +99.83, Nasdaq +7.01, S&P +10.24

Going into its close, the price of crude futures has dropped back towards the unchanged mark. After trading around $67.50 for most of the session, oil is now just 0.2% higher. Still, it's pushing $67 per barrel. Just as the broader market appeared to overlook energy price gains today, the market hasn't caught a bid from their easing. In fact, the opposite appears to be happening. Because the Energy sector is one area that is taking note of crude's action, its moderate pullback has taken a bit of steam out of the indices. The other macro factor that interestingly remains under today's radar is rising market rates. The benchmark 10-year note is presently down five ticks and yielding 4.87%, which is close to a four-year high. Trade within that market is apt to remain cautious ahead of this week's closely-watched jobs data. The report, for the month of March, is due out Friday morning.

14:00 ET
Dow +116.30, Nasdaq +11.86, S&P +11.89
Sideways trade persists. In the last comment, we discussed the Dow's outperformance today. Here is a look at some of its constituents. Caterpillar (CAT 74.89 +3.08) is lending a strong 4.3% gain and is leading the advance. Some of its fellow Industrial representatives (MMM, BA) are adding momentum. As a result, the Industrials sector has risen 1%. Materials issues are also faring especially well. Alcoa (AA 31.19 +0.63) and DuPont (DD 43.02 +0.81) are each up about 2%, and they're helping fuel the Materials sector's 1.8% gain. Buying across the Tech board remains broad-based. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) is leading the Dow's tech issues; IBM (IBM 83.59 +1.12) and Microsoft (MSFT 27.64 +0.43) are also bright spots. All in all, blue chips are faring well. Aside from the aforementioned stocks, A, JPM, MO, UTX, VZ, and XOM have each also gained at least 1%.

13:30 ET
Dow +121.50, Nasdaq +10.12, S&P +12.09
Little has changed over the past half hour. The stock market's major averages are maintaining sold gains, Treasuries remain under pressure, and the price of crude is hovering around $67.50 per barrel. Of the three major indices, the Dow continues to fare best. The average rose 3.66% last quarter, and is attempting to add about 1% onto that today. At this point, all but three of its 30 constituents are registering gains. Of them, 12 have risen in excess of 1%.

13:00 ET
Dow +122.86, Nasdaq +11.53, S&P +12.36
The market is still holding strong. Large cap stocks are outperforming both small and mid cap issues today. The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index, which has outperformed for several years, is relatively flat on the day. Mid caps, as measured by the S&P 400 Index, are up 0.5%. Those performances compare to approximate 1% gains in both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. With the interest rate environment growing less friendly for the stock market, the outperformance of large cap stocks is not unusual as they tend to exhibit relative strength when rising rates pique concerns about a slowdown in economic activity. At this point, though, one gets the sense that their outperformance today is simply being driven by some defensive positioning ahead of earnings season given that expectations for the small- and mid-cap companies have risen noticeably along with stock prices and leave them susceptible to larger price swings in the event of a disappointment.Separately, we noted in the last update that the Capitol had been evacuated due to a loss of electricity. Reports indicate that power has been restored. The market has appeared to be unaffected by the news.

12:30 ET
Dow +126.87, Nasdaq +14.81, S&P +13.13
The major averages remain near their best levels of the session. Each of the economic sectors continue to gain. Of them, Consumer Discretionary is lagging. There are two particular sore spots there. First, there's the auto industry. GM remains in focus following its announced 51% sale of GMAC. Although that sale is essentially positive news for GM, it's not a surprise and has arguably been baked into the share price. In addition, March auto and truck sales have begun to hit the wires. Ford (F 7.89 -0.07) posted a 5% decline (consensus -6.6%). Chrysler (DCX 58.25 +0.84) managed to post a 2% gain (consensus +0.6%), but the stock is not a part of the S&P 500 and is thus not affecting the market. Secondly, several retailers are under pressure following same-store sales guidance from Wal-Mart (WMT 46.96 -0.28), which was at the low-end of its prior guidance. Still, though, the sector is hanging onto a gain. Separately, reports indicate that the U.S. Capitol has been evacuated due to electricity loss.

[ozymandius]

93. Behold! the Witching Hour

3:00
Dow 11,192.81 +83.49 (+0.75%)
Nasdaq 2,342.11 +2.32 (+0.10%)
S&P 500 1,302.86 +8.04 (+0.62%)
10-Yr Bond 48.78 +0.25 (+0.52%)
NYSE Volume 1,852,689,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,533,393,000

[UpInArms]

98. BestBuy Cuts 300 Jobs at Richfield HQ

http://wcco.com/topstories/local_story_093141037.html

(AP) Minneapolis Best Buy Co. Inc. said it gave layoff notices to about 300 workers at its Richfield, Minn. headquarters on Monday.

The layoffs amount to about 7 percent of the consumer electronics seller's corporate headquarters, spokeswoman Dawn Bryant said. It's about a half percent of Best Buy's total workforce.

She said the laid-off workers were not concentrated in any one job type.

<snip>

On Thursday, Best Buy said it would look for roughly $300 million in savings from its general corporate expenses this year, which ran to almost $6.1 billion last year. Best Buy has ramped up spending as it shifted stores to focus on certain customer segments.

...more...

[UpInArms]

99. 3:36 EST heading for the close with a changing tone

Dow 11,166.23 +56.91 (+0.51%)
Nasdaq 2,339.21 -0.58 (-0.02%)
S&P 500 1,299.99 +5.17 (+0.40%)
10-Yr Bond 4.874 +0.21 (+0.43%)

NYSE Volume 2,100,725,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,718,341,000

3:30 pm : The stock market has held relatively steady since the previous update. While the major indices remain off of their highs, the Dow and S&P are still sustaining solid gains. Since before the opening bell, sentiment has been bullish and buying has been broad-based. The market's breadth, however, does not reflect as strong of a bias as one might think. In fact, decliners have had the lead over advancing issues on the Nasdaq all day. Currently, they're up 19-to-12. On the NYSE, advancers' edge has narrowed. At this point, advancing stocks are leading by a ratio of 17-to-16.DJ30 +86.77 NASDAQ +3.99 SP500 +8.97 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1907/1155/1.65 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1556/1682/1.38 bln

3:00 pm : Over the last 30 minutes, the market has continued to pare its gains. The indices are, at this point, still sustaining solid gains, though. It's the Nasdaq that has particularly pulled back. The Tech sector remains a strong source of support, but it's taken back a good portion of its intra-day gain. With its move, the tech-heavy Nasdaq has lost some steam. Semiconductors, which have been the muscle behind both the sector and the Composite today, have similarly pulled back. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is still up 1.5%, but that is well off of its session high. The biotech industry is another factor behind the Nasdaq's move. That area of the market has demonstrated relative weakness throughout the day, but selling has picked up recently. Amgen (AMGN 71.95 -0.80) is a particularly sore spot, despite the fact that the company today announced positive test results for its drug Panitumumab.DJ30 +86.36 NASDAQ +2.88 SP500 +8.29 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1904/1143/1.51 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1491/1728/1.25 bln

[UpInArms]

101. 3:48 EST What's spookin' the cattle?

Dow 11,145.50 +36.18 (+0.33%)
Nasdaq 2,335.68 -4.11 (-0.18%)
S&P 500 1,297.21 +2.39 (+0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 4.874 +0.21 (+0.43%)

NYSE Volume 2,198,741,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,797,972,000

[UpInArms]

100. TenetAsset Mgmt Hedge fund head settles on short-selling charges

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-03T193856Z_01_N03392056_RTRIDST_0_FINANCE-HEDGEFUND-GOOGLE.XML

WASHINGTON, April 3 (Reuters) - A hedge fund manager who lost an early 2005 bet short-selling shares in Google Inc. (GOOG.O: Quote, Profile, Research) settled charges that he issued false account statements and altered financial records to cover up the losses, the Securities and Exchange Commission said on Monday.

A short sale is a bet that a stock's share price will fall. During the period in question, Feb. 1 to June 22, 2005, Google shares rose 50 percent to $289.30 a share from $191.90.

Jon Hankins, the principal of Knoxville, Tennessee-based Tenet Asset Management LLC, agreed to pay fines and disgorgement totaling $386,597 and to be barred from associating with any investment adviser, the SEC said in a statement.

...more...

[Roland99]

102. Wouldn't it be easier to list hedge funds NOT in trouble w/the law?

[UpInArms]

103. Tut, tut. That article said "neither confirmed nor denied" - and therefor

there was no problem!

:P

:hi:

[Roland99]

104. Silly me.

[Roland99]

105. Closing numbers

DJIA...11,144.90 +35.60
Nasdaq...2,336.74 -3.05
S&P 500...1,297.81 +2.98
Russell 2000...759.22 -5.92
30 Yr Bond...4.90 +0.01
10 Yr Bond...4.87 +0.02


10-Yr gained a bit on the 30-Yr.

[ozymandius]

106. Capt. Blather is here to explain the sucker rally.

4:20 pm : The second quarter attempted to begin with a bang. Buyers were in control of the trading action from the early going, and virtually every area of the market participated in a broad-based rally. That rally lost steam, though. By mid-afternoon, the market began to pare its gains. By the closing bell, the Nasdaq was in the red and its blue chip counterparts were approaching unchanged territory.

Beginning of quarter inflows had been behind the market's rise. A slightly softer than expected reading on the March ISM Index and some news on the merger and acquisition front gave investors a reason to buy. In the M&A spotlight was General Motors (GM 20.14 -1.13), which sold a 51% stake in GMAC to an investor consortium, and Lucent (LU 3.08 +0.03), which finally agreed to a merger with Alcatel (ALA 16.21 +0.91). Some less significant items included a third bidder for Aztar and reports that Constellation Brands (STZ 25.25 +0.20) may acquire Canadian winemaker Vincor. Essentially, the M&A front did not offer much of a fresh catalyst. Outside of it, developments on the corporate front were limited. Autos were a drag on the market following their March same-store sales results. Ford (F 7.77 -0.19) posted a slightly better than expected 5% decline, Chrysler (DCX 58.12 +0.71) booked a slightly better than expected 2% gain, and GM announced a much worse than expected 14% slide. GM was a particular drag on the Dow.

GM's fellow Dow component Wal-Mart (WMT 46.77 -0.47) also weighed on trade. The retailer indicated that it expects a 1.3% gain in March same-store sales, which is at the low-end of its previously issued forecast. That news affected the retail industry, and Wal-Mart's decline also helped cap the Consumer Staples sector's (+0.2%) advance.

With respect to the aforementioned ISM Index, the national gauge of manufacturing activity checked in at 55.2. That was below the 57.7 consensus estimate, but was at a level that is still indicative of expansion. Lately, strong numbers have exacerbated concerns over inflation and the length of Fed tightening. As such, the report appeared to have underpinned the stock market's early tone. It did not help the Treasury market, which remained on the defensive. Throughout most of the session, the equity market turned another blind eye to rising market rates. Intra-day, the yield on the 10-year note lingered around 4.90%. That level has not been seen in nearly four years. While yields eased a little bit, conditions within the bond market were still negative ones for stocks.

Late in the day, rate-sensitive areas of the stock market finally reacted. The Financial sector (+0.1%) had been behind the early rally, but it retreated to the flat line. The Utilities sector (+0.2%) similarly declined, and the homebuilding industry reversed course. Technology's loss of steam was another factor behind the market's afternoon sell-off. After a volatile week, semiconductors had been a strong source of support. The industry more than halved its gain, though, at which point the sector gave back ground and the Nasdaq dipped. On the bright side, strength in Microsoft (MSFT 27.56 +0.35), a result of a Barron's cover story, lent support.

Commodities spiked again today. Many metals continued to trade at or near historic highs, and related stocks continued to benefit. The Materials sector, as a result, fared well. On the energy side of the aisle, crude was pushing $68 per barrel for a good part of the day. Price gains across the complex were not sustained, though, and with their declines came a substantial pullback in the Energy sector. The deterioration of its leadership contributed to the broader market's decline. Outside of that sector, the rocky energy price action also went under the market's radar.

Separately, first quarter earnings season commences a week from today. While the numbers should be strong ones - Wall Street expects an 11 to 12% aggregate gain for the S&P 500 - it is our view that quarters ahead will prove less exciting and potentially disappointing. The Fed is almost certain to keep raising interest rates, and economic growth is almost certain to slow. Accordingly, our view on the market remains a neutral one.DJ30 +35.62 NASDAQ -3.05 SP500 +2.98 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1942/1126/1.98 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1698/1588/1.70 bln

[54anickel]

107. That's it? All those high flyin' numbers early on and that's all the day

ends up with? Whatdaheck?