Zogby: California - Is Ah-nold a Wrap? (30% Job Approval)

[Mark E. Smith]

April 04, 2006

A new Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive poll shows the Governator's political career may soon end up on the cutting room floor.

California voters are seriously dissatisfied with Schwarzenegger, the survey shows. Fewer than one in three (30%) approve of his job performance in Sacramento, and just one-third (34%) think he deserves to be re-elected.

There is no shortage of evidence that the GOP is facing tough political sledding in California this year - Democrats have a nineteen-point lead (49% to 30%) in the generic congressional ballot.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1094

I wasn't going to post this, but there is another CA poll on LBN right now that just flat-out pissed me off. Total bullshit.

[AX10]

1. I saw that damn thread.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2208510

There is no way that Arnold rebounded to 45%.

Thanks for the Zogby poll.

[bliss_eternal]

4. The people that take those polls

tend to be anyone that will take it, not necessarily those that live in CA under Der fuhrer. If they were all in CA, I can assure you that it's the few people in Orange County still trying to tow the line for "their guy."
Short of him being caught in a major scandel, those people will support him no matter what.

[xxqqqzme]

32. sorry, I'm behind the orange

curtin and he has lost the young male Latino vote - which is the demographic which put him in Sacramento. And that's not 'just dems' talking.

[BrotherBuzz]

11. I can believe those numbers if you consider....

the poll was conducted in GOP headquarters

:rofl:

[Ecumenist]

13. Amen, AX10!!

:hi: I live in Sacramento County and he's depised, no loathed, LOATHED, I say, here and this is a fairly conservative county...

[saltpoint]

2. Friends in the Bay Area tell me that a lot of Californians

are definitely in the market for a new governor in 06, that the 4 ballot initiatives that Schwartzenegger tried to shove down their throats was a reliable gauge for what's about to happen in November.

And that all sounds pretty good to me. Auf wiedersehn, mein Herr.

[AX10]

3. Good!

[Ignis]

25. Nice job attacking teachers and nurses, Arnie!

That went over like a lead brick in the Bay Area--and probably the rest of CA as well.

Here's hoping that Arnie gets the bum rush in November!

[saltpoint]

28. I second your motion, Ignis. And you're right-on about the nurses

and teachers, too.

Two of the very most essential groups of workers in the world and the idiot governor of California attacks them.

Yikes.

[howmad1]

5. New bumper sticker:

"Beware of Falling Republicans" :evilgrin:

[VaLabor]

6. Quick! Amend the Constitution!

"A California Republican congressman introduced a constitutional amendment Wednesday that would allow Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger to run for president...Rohrabacher said in an interview that Schwarzenegger is doing a great job as governor and voters might want to elect him president one day. But the Orange County lawmaker said that was just a short-term benefit to his proposal to allow anyone who's been a citizen for 20 years or more to be eligible to run for president."

-- September 15, 2004

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/a/2004/09/15/state1553EDT0115.DTL

Oh, now, where IS that constitutional amendment? I know we left it around here somewhere.

[gasperc]

20. is their anti-latino clause?

or anyone caught waving the Mexican flag? or better yet a 10,000 word essay in English to be judged by a group of Rohrbaucher's peers?

[xxqqqzme]

33. whorbacher's an ass - I know -he's

my congress person, unfortunately.

[WhiteTara]

7. I saw that cr*p too!

What is going on? Who's lying poll is that circulating, anyway?

[Mark E. Smith]

10. Go hit the Mercury News blog

You can link to it from the other Steroid Arnie poll thread.

I did. Let's call the lying bastards out.

[EVDebs]

8. Arnold hired a Cheney aide. That should tell Californians what he's up to

Schwarzenegger hires Bush aides but stays distant from president
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2006/04/01/politics/p090444S24.DTL

""Schwarzenegger's team includes Matthew Dowd, Bush's former pollster and strategist, and Steve Schmidt, who ran Bush's rapid response against Kerry before moving to the White House, where he was an aide to Vice President Dick Cheney and helped guide Samuel Alito's Supreme Court nomination. The campaign's communications director, Katie Levinson, worked in the White House communications office.

Democrats said the links to Bush will remind voters of the boost Schwarzenegger gave the president in 2004, when they campaigned together in Ohio, a swing state, just before the election.""

Californians should be reminded !

[IndianaGreen]

9. I predict a Terminator IV will start shooting next year

after Arnold goes back to what he does best, fiction!

[Jack Rabbit]

12. What Arnold does best is not fiction

It's bad movies.

You see, Arnold's bad movies are good bad movies, unlike those of his good friend, Sylvester Stallone. Stallone makes really bad bad movies.

I can actually sit through one of Arnold's bad movies, like Kindergarten Cop or True Lies. I can't wait for him to start making them again.

[JohnLocke]

14. Stallone was born on the same date as George W. Bush.

What are the chances?

[Jack Rabbit]

18. One in 365, isn't it?

When it comes to astrology, I'm a skeptic (a polite term devoted star-gazers use for a nonbeliever).

Yet, I suppose I should reevaluate my disbelief in light of this information. After all, Stallone and Bush each has been very successful at his chosen career in spite of being completely inept at what he does.

[caligirl]

15. Schwarzenegger, GOP Raise $2.5M at Fundraiser

Members of the California Nurses Association push what looks like a gurney with a giant soap bar down a hallway as they try to see California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger at a fundraiser attendeded by U.S. Sen. John McCain, in Beverly Hills, Calif., Monday, March 20, 2006. The nurses are wearing protective gear and want to hand the symbolic soap bar to Schwarzenegger to clean up corporate corruption. (AP Photo/Ann Johansson)

http://www.calnurses.org/media-center/in-the-news/2006/march/page.jsp?itemID=27589504

[tritsofme]

16. Zogby Interactive = Completely useless

These polls are internet based, the respondants are not random, the sample is not scientific.

I don't care if I like the numbers he puts out or not, the way this poll is conducted is garbage.

[Mithras61]

21. Possibly mistaken information...

I've been selected to take Zogby polls, and they verify both your state & ZIPCode. When you register with them to be a participant, you have to provide them some background info that they can use as well. Their polling isn't the same as (for example) a CNN website poll. It doesn't matter HOW they gather the information, so long as it is an appropriately constructed stratified random sampling.

Zogby Interactive was one of the few firms that called both 2000 and 2004 right (that is, against Bush) and with margins that have been upheld by post "official results" counts that have demonstrated the stolen nature of both elections.

[AX10]

22. True. In 2000, Zogby was the only poll that detected....

the late surge that Al Gore recieved in the final weeks of the campaign. Every poll had Bush ahead by 2-3 points, and Zogby was able to detect the 1/2% lead that Gore finnally recieved on election day.

[maseman]

24. Zogby is very credible

I read a lot of posts on these threads that really make no sense about research and polling. I work in survey measurement and have some understanding of national polling. You are correct. Zogby is very credible.

The process the polling companies use is called RDD (Random Digit Dialing.) Then once a person answers the phone most places use what is called the "Birthday method." They ask for the person in the household with the most recent birthday. This is for randomness since older women tend to answer the phone most often.

This randomness will give a pretty good representation of all walks of life around the country. The only way a poll can be very skewed is if the GOP take mailing or phone lists of donors and poll those people.

The artistic part about polling and surveying is in the way the questions are asked. You can ask the same basic question a number of different ways and get results +/-10 points. You have push-polling which is leading the respondent to a certain answer. That is very skewed research.

The best place to get the polling data and to look at all of them for a sort of overall look at what is going on is www.pollingreport.com.

[tritsofme]

26. Zogby Interactive doesn't use RDD.

The polling is internet based.

The sample is not random.

There is no way that a poll conducted over the internet can have truly random and representative sample, it will have to skew toward activists on both sides because by and large those are the people that will take the time to sign up and do these polls, of which half the questions he uses for market research.

Zogby's traditional polls that use RDD are fine, but these goofy "Interactive" polls are garbage.

[tritsofme]

27. See post 26.

By definition, opt-in polling over the internet cannot be truly random or representative.

[maseman]

29. Some corrections

Zogby's interactive polling is not garbage. When CNN or MSNBC run an online poll that is garbage. The Zogby interactive poll is actual more panel methodology like Nielson uses for their meter services. People don't choose to take a poll but rather have signed up with Zogby (through RDD)to be included in a panel. The database is amazingly huge. When Zogby decides to conduct a poll they then dive into that panel, at random, to get the respondents.

They mainly do this for a few different reasons. Most people don't know this but a household that is cell phone only cannot be called by polling and other research companies per federal regulations. (That is about to change by the way.) So those cell only households are omitted from random polling. Of course that is mainly younger demo households.

They also do this interactive poll because the response rates of traditional phone polling is terrible. People don't answer the phone anymore.

[tritsofme]

31. How many people not aligned with the extreme of either of the political

spectrum sign up to participate in these polls?

No matter how big his database is, it is not representative of the population.

[salin]

17. but the guy on WJ (cspan) from political line - said arnies # were

"up".... to a whopping 45%. Hasta ... arnie.

[slackmaster]

19. It's up to state Democrats to fail to select a suitable replacement

And based on our track record in the last Gubernatorial election, it doesn't look very good for us.

[skipos]

23. He is always in the bottom 5 on SurveyUSA's 50 state polls.

I think he can be defeated. If Rasmussen (R) has Arnie neck and neck with a dem, the dem is probably ahead.

[tom_paine]

30. Due to the sad corruption of Imperial "voting" systems

I think any Bushevik can win anytime, no matter how few push their little butons for the other person.

And if we aren't quite to that level of "vote malleability" yet, rest assured we soon will be.

The window of opportunity for the Imperial Subjects of America is rapidly closing, if it's not closed already.

Sad but true.

NOTE: In spite of this knowledge, I will be working hard for the Democrats this year, as if I lived in the Ukraine instead of Imperial Amerika.

[bridgit]

34. i don't think it's a lock for any dem, it will be a mistake to just turn..

the key off and think we're going to coast into the garage. there will be no substitute for message, issues energetically stated, and voter turnout imo