STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 5 April

[ozymandius]

Wednesday April 5, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 1020 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1931 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1631 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1592
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 4, 2006

Dow... 11,203.85 +58.91 (+0.53%)
Nasdaq... 2,345.36 +8.62 (+0.37%)
S&P 500... 1,305.93 +8.12 (+0.63%)
Gold future... 590.60 -3.70 (-0.63%)
30-Year Bond 4.91% +0.01 (+0.20%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.87% -0.00 (-0.04%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Ike Iossif - WEEKLY CHARTS

SUMMARY

Last week (3-24-06) we said, "The positive climate going onto last week enabled the indices to push higher with the Dow, the SP500, and NASDAQ reaching 11335, 1311, and 2333 respectively, as we had suggested. For the coming week the overall technical climate is neutral, while at the same time we have a "news item"--the two day FED meeting--which could very well act as either a negative or a positive catalyst for price movement. Assuming that the price of oil stays between $65 and $61, and taking into consideration both the technical readings and the chart patterns going into next week, one must conclude that the odds are better than even in favor of weakness early on in the week. Subsequently, after the FED makes its announcement the weakness may accelerate, or we may see a positive reversal with strength replacing weakness, and prices moving higher to re-challenge resistance. Having spent the last 17 years as students of the markets, our view is that at the present time being mostly in cash or hedged seems to be the most sensible position. Why? Take a look at our three market timing indicators. One is on a sell signal, one is on a buy signal, and one is neutral! It makes sense to take a position when all three are on the same page, because the odds that you have taken the right position are better than even. At the moment, the odds are only 1:3 in favor of whatever position one adopts. Thus, with the odds worse than even in favor of whatever position one takes, it makes sense not to have/take a biased position at all. There is a time to be long, there is a time to be short, and there is a time to be in cash. In our professional opinion this is the time to be mostly in cash, or hedged when it comes to the equity markets."

(Current Week) Notice that the price of oil and the yield for the 10-year T-note are near their highs of the last two years. Consequently, we believe that over the next 1-2 weeks we have two possible scenarios ahead of us. 1) Oil and bond yields will re-test their highs and then they will pull back, in which case the equity markets will be under modest pressure over the next 3-5 days, and then they will rally as oil and bond yields retreat. 2) Oil and bond yields will advance decisively above their previous highs, in which case the equity markets will remain under pressure, and in all likelihood, they break below support and they will decline to the first downside targets. The key point is this: the equity markets are in a "high-end" consolidation, the outcome of which is dependent upon two different variables--oil prices, and bond yields. Investors/traders should not attempt to take a bullish/bearish position with regards to the equity markets, unless they can determine with a reasonable degree of certainty where oil prices and bond yields are headed. The equity markets are the wrong class of assets to focus on at the present time. Currently, the equity markets are not in charge of their "own destiny;" they are at the mercy of two other markets--oil, bond yields--which in turn are both vulnerable to exogenous events!

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

10:00 AM ISM Services Mar
Briefing Forecast 59.3
Market Expects 59.0
Prior 60.1

10:30 AM Crude Inventories 03/31
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior 2030K

[UpInArms]

52. March ISM - drops to 55.2% (more surprised economists)

10:00 AM ET 4/5/06 U.S. MARCH ISM SERVICES BELOW CONSENSUS 59.5%

10:00 AM ET 4/5/06 U.S. MARCH ISM SERVICES 55.2% VS 60.1% IN FEB.

[UpInArms]

54. (??) They are now filing a "correction" - saying it went up to 60.5%

10:03 AM ET 4/5/06 U.S. MARCH ISM SERVICES EMPLOYMENT 54.6% VS 58.2% IN FEB.

10:01 AM ET 4/5/06 CRRCT: U.S. MARCH ISM SERVICES 60.5% VS 60.1% IN FEB.

10:01 AM ET 4/5/06 CRRCT: U.S. MARCH ISM SERVICES ABOVE CONSENSUS 59.5%

[UpInArms]

58. here's the spin:

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-05T140719Z_01_N05362590_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-SERVICES-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, April 5 (Reuters) - The pace of growth in the U.S. service sector rose in March, as new orders strengthened and prices paid fell, according to a report on Wednesday.

The Institute for Supply Management's services index rose to 60.5 in March from 60.1 in February. The median forecast of Wall Street economists was for a fall to 59.

A number above 50 indicates growth in the sector.

The survey's prices-paid index fell to 60.5 in March from 64.8 in February, while the jobs component fell to 54.6 from 58.2, and new orders rose to 59.5 from 56.2.

...a bit more...

[AnneD]

83. FUBAR

the only folks that are not surprised....are the Marketeers and lurkers:evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

64. DOE's Petroleum Inventories Report:

10:31 AM ET 4/5/06 U.S. CRUDE SUPPLY UP 2.1 MLN BRLS LAST WK: ENERGY DEPT

10:31 AM ET 4/5/06 U.S. DISTILLATE SUPPLY DOWN 2.6 MLN BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

10:31 AM ET 4/5/06 U.S. GASOLINE SUPPLY DOWN 4.4 MLN BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

[UpInArms]

65. U.S. gasoline supply falls for a fifth week: Energy Dept

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B3A25FE2E%2DBD61%2D438D%2DB705%2D5385F8F6BB51%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Energy Department said motor gasoline inventories fell 4.4 million barrels for the week ended March 31 to total 211.8 million. Supplies have lost a total of 14.1 million barrels in five weeks and are 0.2% below the year-ago level, the government data showed. Crude stocks rose 2.1 million barrels, to total 342.8 million barrels -- 7.7% above the year-ago level and at their highest level in seven years. Distillate supplies fell 2.6 million barrels to 121.6 million, but they're 15.9% above the year-ago level. May crude rose 52 cents at $66.75 a barrel. May unleaded gas rose 4.95 cents to $1.945 a gallon and May heating oil added 1.92 cents to $1.875 a gallon.

[UpInArms]

67. API's Petroleum Inventories Report:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BA59B4358%2D8DF2%2D4355%2DBA99%2DD92FD26F7E82%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The American Petroleum Institute said crude inventories rose 4.2 million barrels for the week ended March 31, double the Energy Department's reported 2.1 million-barrel increase. Motor gasoline inventories were up 439,000 barrels, contrary to the 4.4 million-barrel decrease in the government's report. Distillate stocks fell 1.7 million barrels, the API said.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil dips below $66, braced for US crude stock rise

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil slid below $66 a barrel on Wednesday ahead of inventory data expected to show higher crude oil stocks but a drop in fuel supplies in the United States.

U.S. light sweet crude oil futures for May delivery shed 42 cents to $65.81 a barrel as an extended bout of profit-taking knocked prices further below the two-month high of nearly $68 a barrel struck on Monday.

-cut-

Prices have since pulled back as the flow of fresh fund money into the energy complex abated and technical indicators pointed to a period of short-term consolidation.

"There was some kind of profit-taking... due to the feeling that the market is overbought," said Tetsu Emori, chief strategist at Mitsui Bussan Futures.

more...

[UpInArms]

55. May Crude @ $66.40 bbl - May NatGas @ $6.97 mln btus

10:02 AM ET 4/5/06 MAY CRUDE CLIMBS 17C TO $66.40/BRL AHEAD OF U.S. SUPPLY DATA

10:02 AM ET 4/5/06 MAY NATURAL GAS FALLS 9.5C, OR 1.3%, TO $6.97/MLN BTUS

[54anickel]

61. ETHANOL FUELS GAS TROUBLES ($4 plus for gas)

http://www.nypost.com/business/66501.htm

snip>

Even without threats of hurricanes that typically wreak gas-pump havoc, energy traders are betting - by nearly three to one - they'll see the highest prices ever for gasoline by Memorial Day.

"Leaving out the issue of hurricanes, we're going to see some $4 gasoline appearing in some isolated cases," said Jamal Qureshi, senior gasoline analyst at PFC Energy in Washington, D.C. "If hurricanes really hit the refinery system as in the past - well, we saw what that can do."

Most motorists are unaware of what they're facing this summer driving season when they gas up.

To the anxiety of many energy-watchers, America is switching all its gasoline by May 5 to a new blended gasoline that uses 10 percent ethanol to create its octane rating.

The old octane booster, MTBE (methyl tertiary butyl ether), has been virtually outlawed as a cancer-causing pollutant and won't be used after May 5.

more...

[UpInArms]

80. May Crude @ $67.10 bbl - May Unleaded Gas @ $1.943 gal

12:17 PM ET 4/5/06 MAY CRUDE UP 87C AT $67.10/BRL AFTER TOUCHING $67.20

12:17 PM ET 4/5/06 MAY NATURAL GAS UP 6C TO $7.125/MLN BTU AFTER $6.94 LOW

12:17 PM ET 4/5/06 MAY UNLEADED GAS RISES 2.5% TO 2-MONTH HIGH OF $1.943/GAL

[UpInArms]

90. May Crude closes @ $67.05 bbl - Unleaded Gas @ $1.9471 gal

Gasoline futures up over 5 cents; crude closes above $67

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B043CCB5A%2DEDE6%2D4502%2D8702%2D13DFDE3998D1%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- May unleaded gasoline rose 5.16 cents, or 2.7%, to close at $1.9471 a gallon after reaching a more than two-month high of $1.954. The Energy Department reported a fifth-weekly drop in gasoline supplies. May crude rose 84 cents to close at $67.07 a barrel and May natural gas ended little changed, up 0.4 cent at $7.069 per million British thermal units after reaching a two-week low of $6.94.

[ozymandius]

4. BP's oil production down in Q1 but refining cheers

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil giant BP Plc said its production of oil and gas fell in the first quarter of 2006 compared to the same period last year, but it signaled a better-than-expected performance at its refining business.

The world's second-largest listed oil company by market capitalization said in a trading statement on Wednesday that it produced 4.025 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) of oil and gas in the first quarter.

-cut-

Previously rapid growth at BP's Russian joint venture, TNK-BP, slowed sharply as operations were hobbled by an extremely cold winter.

More worrying for investors was the second consecutive year-on-year fall in non-Russian production -- BP's most profitable -- which Citigroup and JP Morgan said had fallen short of their forecasts.

more...

[ozymandius]

5. London gains as miners and oil stocks rally

London equities made progress in opening trade on Tuesday, lifted by Wall Street's late rally and a warm reception from investors to a renewed capital return plan from BP.

-cut-

Overnight in New York, fears about increased inflationary pressure in the world's biggest economy eased and crude prices softened, attracting buyers back into the market in afternoon trade. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the session 0.5 per cent higher at 11,203.85, the S&P 500 gained 0.6 per cent to 1,305.93 and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.4 per cent to 2,345.36.

London investors took heart from the change in mood, and warmed to news of plans at BP to return up to $65bn to investors by 2008. The world's second biggest oil company unveiled the plans alongside news of first quarter production below targetted levels, but not by as much as some analysts had feared after the impact of the US hurricane season on facilites in the Gulf of Mexico.

more...

[ozymandius]

6. Hurricane season will be bad

The most prominent U.S. hurricane forecaster and his team updated predictions Tuesday for the 2006 season: It will be a dangerous year.

But one item in Dr. William Gray's newest report is causing concern for the East Coast. The Colorado State University scientist said there is a 64% chance of a major hurricane making landfall in the region. The average for the last century is 31%, Gray said.

more...

[AnneD]

23. Morning Marketeers,

;donut: The thought of another nasty hurricane season and an inadequate fed response is on the back of everyone's mind. A bad hit on the costline will be bad, but if say Houston, takes a hit like NOLA, the US economy will take a devastating hit. This town is an economnic engine just like NOLA. Between the refineries, the port, and the international finance industry....the US will really suffer. I hear concern about a hurricane hitting the east coast. Considering how light the winter and how long the last hurricane season, I'd say that might be a distinct possibility.
Speaking of natural disasters, I have to leave to prepare to teach Growth and Development to my 5th grade girls....Yes sir, that's why I get paid the big bucks.:spray:


Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[54anickel]

46. If the beginning of tornado season is any indication....

I tell you, I'm scared this year - and I've always been a storm lover/chaser. They have gotten so much more frequent and severe. I've been having these weird dreams/premonitions that our home takes a direct hit. Hopefully it's nothing other than my mind being preoccupied between the news headlines and our FINALLY getting around to the remodeling we've planned for years. But it's scary because (and I know I'll sound like sum-kind-o-a-nut) I sort of share my mother's gift in that premonition department - though mine aren't as strong and I never learned how to deal with/interpret them properly. :shrug:

[54anickel]

59. Tales of Lunacy and Hope from New Orleans

http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/033006N.shtml

In New Orleans, seven months after Katrina, senior citizens are living in their cars. WWL-TV introduced us to Korean War veteran Paul Morris, 74, and his wife Yvonne, 66. They have been sleeping in their 2 door sedan since January. They have been waiting that long for FEMA contractors to unlock the 240 square foot trailer in their yard and connect the power so they can sleep inside it in front of their devastated home.

This tale of lunacy does not begin to stop there. Their 240 square foot trailer may well cost more than their house. While FEMA flat out refuses to say how much the government is paying for trailers, reliable estimates by the New York Times and others place the cost at over $60,000 each.

How could these tiny FEMA trailers cost so much? Follow the money.

Circle B Enterprises of Georgia was awarded $287 million in contracts by FEMA for temporary housing. At the time, that was the seventh highest award of Katrina money in the country. According to the Washington Post, Circle B was not even being licensed to build homes in its own state of Georgia and filed for bankruptcy in 2003. The company does not even have a web site.

more...

[54anickel]

73. Update 1: Red Cross Gives Up Control of Katrina Aid

http://www.forbes.com/business/manufacturing/feeds/ap/2006/04/03/ap2643054.html

Criticized for its Katrina response, the American Red Cross says it is relinquishing control over some disaster aid dollars and cracking down on fraud and abuse.

The nation's largest charity promised the changes in a statement to a Senate panel Monday, following its acknowledgment last year that its $2 billion response to the Gulf Coast storm fell short.

Responding to allegations of waste, the Red Cross said it was moving to standardize financial controls, hire more investigators to review whistleblower complaints and cede control to religious groups in some underserved areas.

snip>

The Red Cross, however, would not release - at Grassley's request - the details of hundreds of internal complaints made by employees and charities that allege fraud, safety violations and employment disputes. It cited the confidential nature of its phone complaint line.

more...


http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0405/p08s02-comv.html
Rescuing the Red Cross

snip>

The Red Cross has also been battered by gale-force criticism over inadequate cooperation with local charities and religious groups. In an operational and cultural switch, it plans to share funds and training with such groups, a move that will increase and strengthen its army of volunteers. It's also hired a vice president of diversity who should see to it that more minorities - including Spanish speakers - work on the front lines.

Some in Congress are so fed up they question the Red Cross's designated role as the charity that government turns to first after a disaster.

But that's an overreaction. For all its shortcomings, the Red Cross outperformed the federal government last fall, and through its chapters, it has reach and experience that would be hard to re-create. Katrina was 20 times larger (in terms of people affected, volunteers needed, and funds required) than anything the Red Cross has ever had to deal with, yet it still fielded over 200,000 volunteers. Since then, it has responded to about 28,000 other US disasters, including the recent spate of terrible tornadoes.

Joshua Gotbaum, former head of the September 11th Fund, calls the Red Cross a national treasure which shouldn't be buried. It seems though, that everyone recognizes it needs heavy-duty polishing, and that's the first step to rebuilding trust.

more...


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/04/AR2006040401744.html
Counterparts Excoriate Red Cross Katrina Effort

Two international Red Cross organizations issued scathing criticisms of the American Red Cross's chaotic response to Hurricane Katrina, accusing the charity of approaching the relief effort with a "dangerous combination of ignorance and arrogance."

The reports -- by the British Red Cross and the Geneva-based International Committee of the Red Cross, which sent experts to the Gulf Coast shortly after Katrina struck -- say their American counterpart was ill-prepared for the disaster, relied on inexperienced volunteers in key positions and had an ineffective system for moving supplies to where they were needed.

snip>

The British report warned that as long as the Red Cross relies on volunteer labor, its disaster response will "remain amateurish and their services to those affected sub-optimal."

Yesterday, American Red Cross officials said they took the reports seriously and, as part of an overhaul of disaster operations, are redesigning their supply-chain system with the help of corporations.

more...

[54anickel]

75. Pat Robertson's Katrina Cash

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20050919/blumenthal

snip>

With the Bush Administration's approval, Robertson's $66 million relief organization, Operation Blessing, has been prominently featured on FEMA's list of charitable groups accepting donations for hurricane relief. Dozens of media outlets, including the New York Times, CNN and the Associated Press, duly reprinted FEMA's list, unwittingly acting as agents soliciting cash for Robertson. "How in the heck did that happen?" Richard Walden, president of the disaster-relief group Operation USA, asked of Operation Blessing's inclusion on FEMA's list. "That gives Pat Robertson millions of extra dollars."

Though Operation USA has conducted disaster relief for more than twenty-five years on five continents, like scores of other secular relief groups currently helping victims of Hurricane Katrina, it was omitted from FEMA's list. In fact, only two non-"faith-based" organizations were included. (One of them, the American Red Cross, is being blocked from entering New Orleans by FEMA's parent agency, the Department of Homeland Security.) FEMA, meanwhile, has reportedly turned away Wal-Mart trucks carrying food and water to the stricken city, teams of firemen from Maryland and Texas, volunteer morticians and a convoy of 1,000 boat owners offering to help rescue stranded flood victims. While relief efforts falter in the face of colossal bureaucratic incompetence, the Bush Administration's promotion of Operation Blessing has ensured that the floodwaters swallowing New Orleans will be a rising tide lifting Robertson's boat.

snip>

Far from the media's gaze, Robertson has used the tax-exempt, nonprofit Operation Blessing as a front for his shadowy financial schemes, while exerting his influence within the GOP to cover his tracks. In 1994 he made an emotional plea on The 700 Club for cash donations to Operation Blessing to support airlifts of refugees from the Rwandan civil war to Zaire (now Congo). Reporter Bill Sizemore of The Virginian Pilot later discovered that Operation Blessing's planes were transporting diamond-mining equipment for the African Development Corporation, a Robertson-owned venture initiated with the cooperation of Zaire's then-dictator Mobutu Sese Seko.

more...

[ozymandius]

7. 6,000 Pilots at Delta Air Vote to Strike

The nearly 6,000 pilots at Delta Air Lines, proving resistant to a second round of concessions, voted overwhelmingly to approve a strike should their contract be voided by an arbitration panel, the pilots' union said yesterday. The panel is expected to issue a ruling by April 15.

The decision by the pilots gives negotiators on both sides more than a week to narrow their differences and avoid a work stoppage that many believe would lead to a liquidation of Delta. Among the issues is the company's request for $305 million in annual pay cuts; the pilots have offered $140 million.

"The Delta pilots will strike if their contract is rejected," said Lee Moak, a pilot and chairman of the Delta chapter of the Air Line Pilots Association.

-cut-

Like the judge overseeing bankruptcy, the arbitration panel was supposed to issue a ruling on whether the contract should be thrown out. But the pilots have vowed not to work without a contract if the ruling goes against them. The panel has encouraged both sides to settle the matter rather than wait for the panel to either void or let stand the pilots' contract.

registration required

[54anickel]

71. Pilot strikes? Ho-hum: Passengers take Delta vote in stride

http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060405/BUSINESS/604050393

In the ambient noise of air travel, there are strikes and rumors of strikes. Then, there are the seemingly endless reports that one airline or another is in bankruptcy or headed there.

So much so that an air of resignation reigned over passengers at Louisville International Airport yesterday as pilots of Delta Air Lines, the city's second-largest passenger carrier, voted to authorize a strike.

snip>

"We've learned over the years to, indeed, take them in stride," she said. "It's gotten to the point that there are so few strikes that lasted any length of time that people just assume a consensus will be reached."

In the past, strike votes have made it difficult, if not impossible, for passengers to get trip insurance.

Any Delta strike would likely prompt a court challenge by the company, which would almost certainly seek a restraining order. Lee Moak, chairman of the pilot union's executive committee, said the union will "do what is legal."

more...


I hear there are union sympathy strikes across the country - Here's a pic from one of the lines.

[ozymandius]

8. International Paper to Sell Most of Its Forestland

The International Paper Company said yesterday that it had agreed to sell most of its United States forestland to private timberland investment firms for about $6.1 billion, furthering its plan to exit logging and focus on uncoated paper and packaging production.

The 5.1 million acres to be sold — about the size of Massachusetts — are in the southern United States and Michigan.

International Paper said it believed the deal was the largest private forestland sale in United States history.

Including sales last week to conservation groups, the company said, it has sold 85 percent of its forestlands for about $6.5 billion.

reg. required

[ozymandius]

9. N.Y. Fed lifts ban on Citigroup acquisitions

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup, the world's largest financial services group, was freed on Tuesday from a year-long ban on big mergers as U.S. regulators said the bank had made significant strides in improving its internal controls.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York had imposed the ban in March 2005 as Citigroup bought privately held First American Bank, telling the New York-based bank to hold off on big takeovers until it tightened internal controls following a slew of ethical and regulatory problems in Europe, Asia and the United States.

more...

[54anickel]

70. Did they really "clean up their act" or is it more a matter of some of

the heat has dissipated and it's back to "bidness as usual"?

snip>

Prince's drive to clean up several costly ethics and regulatory problems since becoming chief executive in October 2003 did suffer a minor setback last week -- with Citigroup sued for insider trading by Australia's securities regulator.

snip>

Citigroup also still faces a $10 billion lawsuit for its role in the insolvency of Italian dairy company Parmalat.

The bank has resolved several other disputes.

The bank paid $4.6 billion to settle lawsuits over its role in the failures of energy trader Enron Corp. and phone company WorldCom Inc. Japanese regulators forced Citigroup to close its private bank in that country, and European regulators faulted a bond trade that roiled markets.


Oh yeah, I think it's time to "cut 'em loose". :eyes:

[ozymandius]

10. Fuel, Fed on tap for Wall Street

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Investors will be looking at fuel supplies and comments from the Federal Reserve for direction for Wednesday's trading.

Stock futures were down slightly in early trading, although a comparison to fair value suggested a flat to narrowly lower open for stocks, ahead of the 10:30 a.m. ET Energy Department report on U.S. fuel inventories. While supplies of oil and some fuels are expected to gain, gasoline supplies are forecast to be tighter, which could drive up gasoline prices further ahead of the start of the summer driving season. That in turn could raise fresh inflation concerns.

Markets will also be weighing comments late Wednesday from some Federal Reserve officials, including Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig and Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, who both suggested the central bank is getting close to the end of its course of interest rate hikes.

more...

http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/05/markets/stockswatch/index.htm

[ozymandius]

11. Google jumps back above $400

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Shares of Google, the world's most popular search engine, surged above $400 Tuesday for the first time since early February on investor optimism about upcoming earnings.

Google (Research) jumped 3.8 percent in active trading on Nasdaq and at one point traded close to $405.

The stock has soared nearly 20 percent since Standard & Poor's said late last month that it was adding the company to its S&P 500 index. Analysts said much of the buying during the past few weeks was by fund managers who run index funds that mirror the S&P 500. Google (Research) was officially added to the index at the close of business on March 31.

more...

http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/04/technology/google/index.htm

[ozymandius]

12. Buffett offers a $14B safety net? (The sage speaks, acts.)

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Billionaire investor Warren Buffett is making a $14 billion bet on global stock markets, according to an article Tuesday.

Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (Research) has sold clients insurance protection against a drop in four equity indices, the Financial Times reported.

If the indices, three of which are outside the U.S., fall by 30 percent over the 15-20-year life of the contracts, Berkshire would incur a pre-tax loss of about $900 million. It has a maximum exposure of $14 billion, according to the report.

Analysts told the paper that the purchasers of the index contracts were probably pension funds that wanted to increase their potential long-term returns by holding more equities but needed protection in case of a stock market meltdown.

more...

http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/04/news/newsmakers/buffet_global_markets/index.htm

[Zynx]

29. The odds that any market will be down 30% 20 years from now are so

low that I can't even really calculate it. Apparently he did.

[UpInArms]

13. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

Last trade 88.85 Change +0.11 (+0.12%)

Dollar Extends Weakness on Talk of Reserve Diversification

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx-reports/daily-fundamentals/7786-dollar-extends-weakness-on-talk-of-reserve.html

US Dollar

After yesterday’s strong move in the currency market, the dollar extended its weakness against the majors today. With no significant economic releases on the calendar, talk of reserve diversification has once again resurfaced. We have repeatedly said that this topic will be a sore point that hangs over the dollar and something that the market will revisit in the months if not years to come. Earlier this morning, a member of the Chinese Parliament speaking at a conference in Dubai said that the central bank of China should gradually reduce its US Treasury holdings. Although the Chinese government quickly came out to do damage control by playing down the comments as simply the view of that official only, later comments by the central bank of Qatar indicating that they may be buying more Euros puts to question whether the other major central banks really do not have the same thought in mind. Despite last week’s hawkish FOMC statement, the market is still doubting the Fed’s optimism. However as much as we have been warning about the risks for the dollar, the recent move has been very strong and the EUR/USD is now reaching some critical levels on the topside which means we could see some stalling before a continued move higher. The non-manufacturing ISM index is due for release tomorrow. Even though the forecast is for a dip, the service sector has been performing far better than the manufacturing sector on average over the past two years which means that even though yesterday’s ISM number came in bad, tomorrow’s report could avoid following the same fate. Finally, a popular newsletter report predicted the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates after the May rate hike. Although two more rate hikes seem to be the consensus, the report is still worth noting since it is closely followed on the institutional level.

...more...

Broad Dollar Weakness On Diversification

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx-reports/top-fx-market-movers/7785-broad-dollar-weakness-on.htmlhttp://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx-reports/top-fx-market-movers/7785-broad-dollar-weakness-on.html

Dollar weakness turned into euro strength as several factors reinforced greenback selling seen in the overnight. Speculation over interest rates and central bank diversification led the handful of reasons with Middle Eastern buyers emerging late in the session forcing the currency pair higher. Speculation has increased that this Friday’s unemployment report may signal the end of current tightening bias and turn focus to the widening deficit and weaker infrastructure with the whisper number coming in below the 190K consensus. Should the report be lower than expected, it may expose a near term weakness that would jeopardize further hike interests and spark preemptive euro short covering. Middle Eastern and central bank diversification also contributed to the day’s move as the current spot levels off and consolidates heading into the Asian session. Further upside may ensue as manufacturing is still expected to remain relatively high in the European Union, furthering any ECB interest rate speculation. Retail sales are additionally expected to give the euro a boost in the overnight. However, with the resistance ceiling of 1.2300 coming into play, the rise may be capped in the short term. A penetration above looks to trigger concern over the 1.2322 resistance. Comparatively, profit taking and less than best showings would be reason enough to spark a move lower to 1.2161 (28.6 percent fib from the November ’05-January ’06 bull wave).

Rumorville
Bidding looks to resume at the 1.2225 and 1.2210 on a pullback with stops under at 1.2195. More bidding interest resides below the 1.2200 handle with comparative offers above at 1.2315/20 and 1.2325. Separately, option roll offs are eyed ahead as EUR/JPY reaches highs not seen since 1998.

...more...

[54anickel]

22. Dollar falls on Chinese diversification fears

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/0ca841d4-c3c7-11da-bc52-0000779e2340.html

snip>

Two major explanations were advanced for the dollar’s initial slide. One was a return of fears that Asian and Middle Eastern central banks may be about to diversify their reserves out of the dollar, re-opening the debate over the funding of the vast US current account deficit.

Cheng Siwei, a vice-chief of China’s National People’s Congress, started the ball rolling, saying: “China can stop buying dollar-denominated bonds, increase buying of US products and gradually reduce its holdings of US bonds.”

The People’s Bank said Mr Cheng’s views were purely his own, while analysts pointed out that he had no involvement in economic or financial policy.

“He is a parliamentarian rather than a key economic decision maker,” said Steven Saywell, chief currencies strategist at Citigroup.

However, just hours later, Kuwait and Qatar joined the United Arab Emirates in suggesting that they might buy more euros, at the expense of the dollar.

more...

Wonder if that was a coordinated effort or just a co-inky-dink? Seems the rest of the world just loves to pick at that scab.

[UpInArms]

41. peeking at the buck - the slide continues

Last trade 88.71 Change -0.03 (-0.03%)

Settle Time 15:00 Open 88.75

Previous Close 88.74 High 88.96

Low 88.62 2006-04-05 09:36:04, 30 min delay

[54anickel]

56. Deadly Dollar Dominos (Willie)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie040506.html

Giant geopolitical factors have been dominant toward the gold price in the last half of 2005 and the early part of 2006, having eclipsed trade deficits, absent savings, price inflation, and other plebeian economic fundamentals like consumer demand, job growth, or industrial output. Bond yield differentials continue to be important, but lately, writing on the wall clearly paints a picture of US interest rate advantage slowly fading from springtime rains. Gold seems poised for a meteoric rise. A confluence of powerful forces is at work, far more inter-related than we might perceive or admit. Some of the crucially important listed factors lie in the past, while some are in current status. Some factors lie in the future, either on the cusp of tomorrow or just down the road. Political demonstrations and weather storms provide a violent stir of the global cauldron. Trade war serves as the nitroglycerine ingredient within the cauldron.

1. General Motors and Ford Motors undergo debt rating downgrades
2. Chinese govt delinks the yuan currency directly from US$
3. King Fahd dies in Saudi Arabia, and Abdullah takes the reigns
4. USGovt blocks the Unocal deal from CNOOC acquisition
5. Hurricanes Katrina and Wilma devastate the US Gulf Coast
6. Euro Central Bank begins its tightening cycle with two rate hikes
7. Schumer trade tariff bill against China gains support in US Congress
8. Dubai Port World deal to control US ports fails, resolved by compromise
9. Iraqi Civil War erupts, conflict festers with Iran, Persian Gulf destabilized
10. extra USFed rate hikes threaten to pop the US housing bubble
11. Yen Carry Trade is slated for an orderly unwind
12. Russia and China accelerate official gold accumulation
13. key debt rating downgrades continue, such as for Iceland govt bonds
14. master inflationist Ben Bernanke makes his imprint as USFed Chairman
15. the USFed stops publication of the M3 money supply
16. the USFed hikes rate until the next LongTerm Capital Mgmt debacle
17. Asia agrees upon a currency for their new credit market (yuan basket?)
18. coordinated chaos seems orchestrated amidst rising nationalism & protectionism
19. General Motors and Ford Motors suffer a broad union-led
20. US Gulf Coast hit by more hurricanes, after two hit Australia before April

The April report (issued midmonth) for the Hat Trick Letter will tie many of these factors together, in much the same manner as past reports have. Let's step back and take a longer-term viewpoint. Several key landmark events have occurred in the last nine months, as an acceleration has clearly shown itself in the weakening to the USDollar worldwide foundation. The trend is sure to resume. As the dominos have toppled, one by one, renewed momentum has created a significant headwind for the world reserve currency. Taken in isolation, each domino is of minor importance. Taken together, the sequence spells bigtime trouble for the clownbuck. Several listed factors actually are tied together by curious threads. One can learn a lesson in modern day life: there are few coincidences which involve truly large momentous events. The bigger the event, the more likely its planned occurrence, the more likely its integration with other critical events.

Since the year 2001, gold has responded inversely to the USDollar. When the bloated buck falls, the gold price rises, like a children playground teeter tawter. The exception has been since midsummer 2005, not enough to establish a trend. One can actually argue with some justification that the US$ rose in the second half of 2005 from an oversold reaction. At the same time, the gold price rose uninterrupted. Many analysts argued that gold decoupled from the US$, here too in my scribbles, during this time span. It might be more accurate to claim a semblance of continued inverse correlation between gold and the US$ continues. As the bloated buck has stalled versus other currencys in their exchange rates, gold persists in rising.

more...

[UpInArms]

91. dollar not looking too good

Last trade 88.66 Change -0.08 (-0.09%)

Settle Time 15:00 Open 88.75

Previous Close 88.74 High 88.96

Low 88.60 2006-04-05 15:10:55, 30 min delay

[UpInArms]

14. US home loan demand up as rates near 4-year high

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-05T110136Z_01_N05240073_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-MORTGAGES-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, April 5 (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage applications rose for a second consecutive week, reflecting a rush by consumers to lock in loans as interest rates rose to a near four-year high, an industry trade group said on Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity for the week ended March 31 increased 7.2 percent to 612.8 from the previous week's 571.7.

Borrowing costs on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, excluding fees, averaged 6.49 percent, up 0.13 percentage point from the previous week, its highest level since the week ended June 14, 2002 when it reached 6.53 percent.

<snip>

The MBA's seasonally adjusted purchase mortgage index -- widely considered a timely gauge of U.S. home sales -- rose to 438.2, up 8.4 percent from the previous week's 404.1 but below its year-ago level of 446.0.

<snip>

The group's seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications increased 5.3 percent to 1,640.8, its first gain in four weeks, compared to 1,558.4 the previous week. A year earlier the index stood at 1,798.8.

The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 36.6 percent of total applications from 37.3 percent the previous week. It was the lowest refinance share since the week ended July 30, 2004 when it reached 35.8 percent.

...more...

[54anickel]

37. Will Corus be a condo casualty?

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BC4280695%2DE3C6%2D48D4%2D9B31%2D0497069D4652%7D&source=blq%2Fyhoo&dist=yhoo&siteid=yhoo

SAN DIEGO (MarketWatch) -- If investors in Corus Bankshares do nothing else, they should read last Sunday's San Diego Union-Tribune.

A headline on the front page screamed, "Downtown Downturn?" It was a story about the slowdown in downtown San Diego's booming condo market, where the number of pre-owned units on the market has doubled to 600 from this time a year ago, while another 2,010 "unsold new units are being actively marketed in projects that are recently completed, are under construction or are expected to start construction soon."

The story went on to say that "the inventory bulge is likely to sideline at least some new condo construction...Already, a handful of proposed projects have been put up for sale."

Why single out Chicago-based Corus (for what is happening in San Diego? Simple: 93% of its loans are tied to condo developments, up from 75% a year ago and around 49% in 2003. Twenty percent of those loans are in California; 6% in San Diego. The other key markets are Washington, DC, Florida and New York City.

That was fine while business was booming, but could be a trap when it's not.

Yet based on the company's stock, investors must be thinking it's different this time because of empty nesters and investment properties.

more...

[54anickel]

39. A Suburban Builder Heads for the City

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/05/business/05toll.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Toll Brothers is perhaps the best-known builder of luxury homes in the country, having honed the art of upper-middle-class living into the science of large-scale suburban development. But now the company is entering the New York City real estate market, with five sites in various stages of development from the East Village to the Gowanus Canal neighborhood in Brooklyn.

For a national homebuilder that has specialized in upscale suburban houses, the obvious question is, Why New York City and why now?

"The better question is, Why didn't I do it earlier?" said Robert I. Toll, chairman and chief executive of the $6.5 billion company, which is based in Horsham, Pa. "We weren't ready for urban development. We're a conservative company. There was too much risk. It required a different set of skills. But we picked up some urban skills in Hoboken and Jersey City, and built some towers in Florida. So the question then is, Why not the boroughs?"

snip>

Working for a conservative company, however, has required Mr. Von Spreckelsen to educate his boss. The first purchase recommendation he made, two blocks along the Gowanus Canal in Brooklyn, was initially rejected by Mr. Toll.

snip>

Some real estate specialists say that Toll Brothers is moving into the New York market for two reasons. The obvious one is purely a growth opportunity. But the other is that the company's traditional market — single-family suburban development — is being curtailed both by local ordinances designed to limit growth and by a lack of premium buildable land.

In recent months the company has also encountered problems related to broader market trends; Toll Brothers announced in February that the company was experiencing increased cancellations of new home orders, and that new contracts fell by 21 percent compared with the previous year.

more...

Hmmm, will Mr. Toll be the fool's fool in the end? :shrug: This will be interesting to watch. Mr. Von Spreckelsen - a hero or a zero? I hate to judge a book by it's cover, but the pic of him in the article makes me think of a smooth talking used car salesman. Certainly looks full of himself - for now.

[specimenfred1984]

15. Good Morning Marketeers, The Fed Is Yapping Today

Which means there's a good chance they'll be pumping up the stock market. I'll take a wild guess at the content of the speech; there's no inflation and the economy looks great!

http://www.federalreserve.gov/calendar.htm

--- April 5 Speech - Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
Announcement of 2006 National Jump$tart Coalition Survey Results
Jump$tart Coalition for Financial Literacy Press Conference, Washington, D.C.
9:30 a.m. ---

[UpInArms]

44. Barking Ben yips on cue

Bernanke doesn't mention economy in literacy remarks

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-05T133245Z_01_WAT005228_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-BERNANKE-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, April 5 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, speaking on Wednesday to a group that promotes financial literacy among youth, made no mention of current U.S. economic conditions as he praised the group's objective.

"As a former educator and school board member, and as the parent of two young adults, I am personally convinced that improving education is vital to the future of our economy and that promoting financial literacy in particular must be a high priority," the central bank chairman said in prepared remarks.

(very short blurb)

[AnneD]

60. Say...

when did you get a fax line to the RNC installed. Aren't those talking points great or what. Think of all those brain cells that don't need to toil away now.:sarcasm: as if you needed to know.

[UpInArms]

16. Japan penalizes JP Morgan Trust Bank for improper REIT dealings

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B0392DF31%2D20EB%2D43EE%2DA2D6%2DC780645F4C72%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Japan's financial watchdog on Wednesday censured JP Morgan Trust Bank Ltd for improper dealings involving real-estate securitizations, ordering the Japanese banking unit to suspend some operations for six months.

<snip>

The FSA investigation centered on shortcomings in the structure of asset-backed securities sold primarily to institutional investors. The regulator said JP Morgan Trust Bank failed to adequately review the value of real-estate holdings in some of these products. It also cited additional shortcomings.

According to a FSA statement published on its Web site: "...the credit division's preliminary surveys and assessment did not function properly and the branch extended non-recourse loans while overlooking the crucial matters of underlying assets (real estate) subject to liquidation, including defects, illegality, overvaluation, issues with accounting procedures, and the appropriateness and validity of the structure's objective and substance."

It's the fourth penalty the FSA has issued against JP Morgan Trust in a month. Last week, the FSA ordered the bank's asset-management division to make changes to its operations after a dealer improperly shifted trading loses on a foreign currency order to a customer account.

...more...

[specimenfred1984]

25. This Part Is Really Interesting...

--- On March 9, the FSA ordered the Tokyo branch of JP Morgan Securities Japan Co. to suspend new business for three weeks for "artificial market making" related to stock futures. ---

That must be more of those "aliens" the guy on Financial Sense was talking about the other day.

[UpInArms]

17. Refco fraud could have been found sooner-investors

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-04T232900Z_01_N04194232_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-REFCO-LAWSUIT.XML

NEW YORK, April 4 (Reuters) - Refco Inc.'s auditors and underwriters ignored documents that should have raised red flags about questionable loans involving the futures broker, according to a complaint filed by investors.

The complaint, filed Monday as part of a consolidated shareholder and bond investor lawsuit, blames dozens of parties including Credit Suisse Group Inc. (CSGN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research), Bank of America Corp. (BAC.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Deutsche Bank AG (DBKGn.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) and auditor Grant Thornton for not uncovering Refco's fraud sooner.

According to the complaint, Grant Thornton in 2004 received confirmation that Refco Capital Markets lent $335 million to a customer just three days before the end of Refco's fiscal year in February 2002.

That $335 million loan was in fact designed to hide bad customer loans on Refco's balance sheet, the complaint said, and was one of 11 similar transactions involving Refco.

<snip>

"It appears to us that bankers were more interested in pocketing their fees than protecting their clients," Coffey said.

...more...

[54anickel]

24. Well no sh*t! Remember the old dirt we were able to dig up when the

story first broke? Wasn't the audit before going public even questionable, or do I have this one confused with the multitude of other Ponzi schemes we've been watching?

[salin]

27. but accounting reform was bad .... markets will correct themselves

so the national chamber of commerce tells us.

[UpInArms]

18. ABC/WP Survey: Confidence Ends Modest Advance - Gas Prices

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/print?id=1805477

April 4, 2006— - Consumer confidence did not continue its upward tick this week, as gas prices posted another increase a string of rising prices.

The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index, based on views of current economic conditions, stands at -9 on its scale of +100 to -100, back to its month-ago level and matching its long-term average in weekly polls since December 1985.

Confidence had shown resilience in the face of rising energy prices recently, gaining six points from Feb. 19 to last week even as gas prices advanced 26 cents a gallon over that time period. But with the average price of gasoline jumping another 9 cents to $2.59 a gallon this week -- the highest since late October -- confidence might be taking a breather.

<snip>

TREND -- This year the index has been as low as -13 and as high as -7 just last week. Its all-time high was +38 in January 2000; its all-time low was -50 in February 1992. As noted, its current -9 exactly matches its long-term average. It's above last year's average of -13 and very near this year's average so far of -10.

GROUPS -- The CCI is higher in better-off groups. It's +37 among higher-income Americans while -64 among those with the lowest incomes, +5 among college graduates while -34 among those who haven't finished high school, -4 among whites but -42 among blacks and +2 among men while -17 among women.

Regionally, at +6, the index is again this week highest in the West; it's -10 in the South, -12 in the Northeast and -15 in the Midwest. The CCI is +36 among Republicans but -18 among Independents and -32 among Democrats.

...more...

[54anickel]

19. Transcripts: Economy concerned Greenspan

Former Fed chief worried about direction of economy back in 2000

Are they trying to calm the markets by saying Ben is "at the ready"? Or will the market take this as a heads up - it's getting slippery?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12157216/

WASHINGTON - In 2000, when Wall Street's bubble burst and the economy hit a brick wall, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and other Fed officials revealed in their closed-door meetings plenty of concern about just where things might be headed.

Transcripts of those discussions, released Tuesday, found the officials groping to determine what the sharp declines in the stock market might do to the broader economy.

Various major market indexes began 2000 by hitting record highs, with the Dow Jones industrial average peaking at 11,722.98 on Jan. 14, 2000. But then the market began a sharp dive as the Internet stock bubble burst. At the lows two years later, more than $7 trillion in paper wealth had been wiped out.

Not all the Fed's discussions were completely serious. Greenspan, during a December meeting, told his Fed colleagues, "I have gotten calls from a number of senior high-tech executives who are telling me that the market is dissolving rapidly before their eyes."

But Greenspan prompted a laugh by adding, "I suspect that a not inconceivable possibility is that what is dissolving in front of their eyes is their own personal net worth."

more...




Lifting Rates in '00, Fed Knew of Market Risk
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/05/business/05fed.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

In May 2000, the Federal Reserve raised its main interest rate by the most in five years, even as its chief forecaster warned of the economic consequences of a possible stock market collapse.

"What lies ahead is certainly less attractive than the landscape of the past few years," Michael Prell, former head of the Fed's research and statistics division, said in a May meeting on interest rates, according to transcripts for 2000, which were released yesterday in Washington.

The record of exchanges between Alan Greenspan, then Fed chairman, and his colleagues provides a window into the Fed's thinking as central bankers tried to slow an economy that had grown by more than 4 percent for three consecutive years. The transcripts show Fed officials grappling with how to raise interest rates without putting too many people out of work or threatening the stock market.

"When we've attempted to apply the brakes in past expansions, we generally ended up skidding into a ditch," Mr. Prell said at the May 2000 meeting. Mr. Prell also said that "in the current cycle, there would seem to be a risk of a particularly large decline in the market, given that, by many conventional metrics, we experienced a speculative bubble of extraordinary proportions." Mr. Prell is now a private consultant.

snip>

Mr. Greenspan has said on several occasions that the Fed should cushion the effect of bubbles rather than pop them and risk wider damage to the economy. The current chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, shares that view.

more...

[UpInArms]

20. Quote for the day:

"Liberals got women the right to vote. Liberals got African-Americans the right to vote. Liberals created Social Security and lifted millions of elderly people out of poverty. Liberals ended segregation. Liberals passed the Civil Rights Act, the Voting Rights Act. Liberals created Medicare. Liberals passed the Clean Air Act, the Clean Water Act. What did Conservatives do? They opposed them on every one of those things – every one. So when you try to hurl that label at my feet, ‘Liberal,’ as if it were something to be ashamed of, something dirty, something to run away from, it won’t work, Senator, because I will pick up that label and I will wear it as a badge of honor."

from

http://simplyleftbehind.blogspot.com/2006/04/whole-new-meaning-to-rubber-chicken.html

:D

[UpInArms]

21. Yahoo Implicated In Spyware Click Fraud

http://www.webpronews.com/insiderreports/marketinginsider/wpn-50-20060404YahooImplicatedInSpywareClickFraud.html

Advertisers who expect their Overture ad campaigns to run with certain Yahoo Searches may be surprised to find their ads running in syndicated spyware applications that render each impression as an ad click the advertiser must pay.

Ben Edelman has again made some damning claims about Yahoo and its relationship with spyware vendors. Have your Overture campaigns seen behavior that looks like click fraud? Tell us more at WebProWorld.

When that click is paid, according to spyware researcher Ben Edelman, Yahoo and the spyware vendor split the revenue. Edelman has followed up his August 2005 research into spyware receiving payments from Yahoo's Overture by noting an increase in this possible syndication fraud.

"In my August syndication fraud examples, an advertiser only pays Yahoo if a user clicks the advertiser's ad. Not so for three of today's examples. Here, spyware completely fakes a click -- causing Yahoo to charge an advertiser a "pay-per-click" fee, even though no user actually clicked on any pay-per-click link. This is "click fraud," Edelman wrote.

Edelman documented three examples where actual click fraud took place. He named 180solutions, Nbcsearch, and Look2me/Ad-w-a-r-e as culprits in presenting popup ads that defrauded advertisers with Yahoo.

...more...

[UpInArms]

26. Computer Sciences announces 5,000 job cuts, explores possible sale

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/business/14267480.htm

LOS ANGELES - Computer Sciences, one of the nation's largest information technology companies, said Tuesday that it was exploring a sale of the company and announced a restructuring to slash 5,000 jobs, mostly in Europe.

The El Segundo company has been the subject of takeover rumors since the fall, but Tuesday's announcement was the first time that Computer Sciences has stated publicly it actively was considering a sale.

The company declined to identify potential buyers, saying only that it had retained Goldman Sachs to help examine its options ``in response to recent expression of interest.''

The announcement signals that a deal will happen ``sooner than later,'' said Joseph A. Vafi, an information technology services analyst with Jefferies. ``Something is brewing.''

The news pushed up Computer Sciences shares $2.51 to $59.80, its highest closing price in five years.

...more...

[UpInArms]

28. China Fines 600 Financial Institutions

http://www.wtop.com/?nid=111&sid=580783

SHANGHAI, China (AP) - China fined 600 financial institutions a total of 56.3 million yuan ($7 million) for money-laundering violations in 2005, including a branch of Japan's Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, a state-run newspaper reported Wednesday.

The Chinese central bank's center for monitoring and analyzing suspected money laundering said it reviewed suspect transactions worth about $10.8 billion in 2005, China Business News reported, citing People's Bank of China statistics.

<snip>

China has been gradually tightening controls and raising disclosure requirements for banks and other financial institutions, amid estimates that the scope of money laundering has grown to as much as 400 billion yuan ($50 billion) a year.

The number of institutions suspected of violations rose sharply last year from 2004, when 66 financial institutions paid fines totaling more than 1.7 million yuan ($212,000), the report said.

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

30. At the Enron Trial, Skilling Then vs. Skilling Now

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/05/business/05skilling.html?ex=1144900800&en=4c0b674e9d579892&ei=5099&partner=TOPIXNEWS

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

As Jeffrey K. Skilling, Enron's former chief executive, moves from the defense table to the witness stand as soon as today, he will have to be prepared to confront his own past testimony.

At his trial in Houston, Mr. Skilling will be bound by the very words he spoke under oath in secret testimony given more than four years ago, at a time when the Enron criminal investigation had not yet begun.

The testimony, taken in December 2001 as part of an investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission into the Enron debacle, serves as a road map to the defense Mr. Skilling will offer on the stand. It also points up some potential pitfalls he faces. A transcript of the testimony, which has not been made public, was obtained by The New York Times.

<snip>

At the heart of Mr. Skilling's statements in his previous testimony was a simple refrain: Enron took every precaution; everything was legal; nothing was hidden; nothing was improper. But Mr. Skilling also advanced the argument that if anything illegal had occurred, he could not possibly have been on top of every transaction at Enron, simply because the company was too sprawling for any one person to control.

<snip>

Some of Mr. Skilling's S.E.C. testimony appears to be in direct contradiction to statements made by prosecution witnesses in the nine weeks of the criminal trial so far. For example, at one point in the testimony, Mr. Skilling was asked by a government investigator whether Enron ever used reserves to help the company meet Wall Street's earnings expectations. Mr. Skilling flatly denied that, and went on to deny that any reserves existed for such a purpose.

...more...

[UpInArms]

31. Derivative traders see March US payrolls at 190,100

These people need to sign up for Gamblers Anonymous :eyes:

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-05T123652Z_01_N05306730_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-PAYROLLS-DERIVATIVES.XML

NEW YORK, April 5 (Reuters) - Traders in the first of four derivatives auctions on March U.S. nonfarm payrolls data bet on Wednesday that the figures will show a seasonally adjusted gain of 190,100 jobs in March, a tad above above economists' expectations.

The median forecast of economists polled last week by Reuters predicted a 190,000-job increase in nonfarm payrolls following a 243,000 increase in February.

The U.S. Labor Department will issue the February jobs report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. (1230 GMT).

Among possible outcomes, a payroll gain between 125,000 and 200,000 drew the most bets, with traders putting a 29.0 percent probability of a result in that range.

...more...

[UpInArms]

32. Treasuries rise on Fed signals, ahead of ISM services

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-04-05T125644Z_01_N05247435_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS.XML

NEW YORK, April 5 (Reuters) -U.S. Treasury debt prices rose on Wednesday after comments by several Federal Reserve officials, which traders understood as a signal that the central bank's rate increase campaign is nearing a top.

The market also braced for a reading of U.S. service sector activity; the next focus for U.S. government bond investors before the week's key economic data release, the March U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.

Economists expect a March reading of 59.0 for the Institute for Supply Management's service sector index, down slightly from February's 60.1.

After the past week's sharp sell-off, Treasuries' also were staging a partly technically driven correction as market participants hedged their bets ahead of Friday's U.S. jobs report, analysts said.

"What we are seeing is defensive posturing ahead of the nonfarm payrolls number," said Jeff Cheah, fixed income strategist with RBC Capital Markets in Toronto.

<snip>

"Today the firmer tone on Treasuries could also be explained by what the market interpreted as dovish comments by Fed president Hoenig who hinted that the Fed may be near the end of its tightening cycle," Cheah said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

48. Treasurys up as Fed official hints at ending hikes

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B6C5F6253%2DA07B%2D462B%2D8A2D%2DE430E7E3949F%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices jumped higher in early dealings Wednesday putting a bit of pressure on yields after a Fed official said he believes monetary policy is very close to its proper level.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note last was up 8/32 at 97-13/32 with a yield ($TNX ) of 4.836%, down from 4.872% at Tuesday's close. Prices and yields move in opposite direction.

Other maturities also were experiencing demand, as the 30-year bond rose 11/32 to 93-30/32 with a yield ($TYX ) of 4.889%. The 2-year note was 3/32 higher at 99-22/32 with a 4.80% yield.

Fixed-income prices got a much-needed boost overnight from Kansas City Federal Reserve President Thomas Hoenig, who said that monetary policy is "very close to where we need to be."

Hoenig said the federal funds rate at 4.75% was in the range of neutral, which neither spurs nor restricts growth.

...more...

[54anickel]

63. Rising Rates Pinch Consumers

http://www.thestreet.com/_pbear/stocks/retail/10277447.html

The recent uptick in long-term interest rates may signal that the end of a long period of cheap credit is at hand. That means the economy is humming, but what would higher interest rates mean for consumers?

Government statistics show that consumer spending levels have been higher than income levels for years, prompting economic worrywarts to conclude that an eventual slowdown in consumer spending levels is inevitable. If interest rates make a sustained move to the upside now, that thesis will be put to the test.

snip>

The plot thickened late last year when short-term rates climbed higher than long-term rates, creating an inverted yield curve. Inverted yield curves have, in the past, signaled the onset of an economic recession. This time around, Greenspan voiced the widely held opinion that foreign demand for long-term U.S. bonds was pushing down long-term rates, so the inverted yield curve wasn't a sign of an economic slowdown.

So far, the Greenspan crowd has been right. Now long-term rates are moving up again, prompting some observers to conclude that, rather than heading for a slowdown, the economy is heating up and the increase in long-term rates is only the beginning.

"The low-interest rate cycle that really began in 1982 but has gone to extremes in the last four years may be coming to an end here," says Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment officer with Windham Financial Services. "Gold is telling us that. Commodity prices are telling us that. It looks like the dollar may be getting ready to tell us that. You have a developing set of circumstances that could send interest rates up quite a bit."

If the economy is strengthening and capital is getting ready to start flowing out of the bond and commodity markets, stock market investors hope they will benefit. That might explain why the Nasdaq Composite perked up roughly 2.2% over the last two weeks while the 10-year jumped 25 basis points. Meanwhile, some sectors, including retail, moved to the downside as uncertainty about higher rates moved some investors to seek cover.

more...

So, who's really in control these days, the Fed, the bond vigilantes, Asia? :shrug: I get the feeling there ain't NOBODY at the helm these days - we're just drifting, being tossed around the stormy seas by the prevailing wind of the day.

[UpInArms]

66. Treasuries pare gains after Snow job data comments

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-05T143557Z_01_N05296042_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-3-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, April 5 (Reuters) - U.S. government debt pared early price gains on Wednesday after Treasury Secretary John Snow said Friday's upcoming jobs data would be "good numbers."

Thinking Snow might have inside information on what the actual figures might be, traders pulled the market back a bit, leaving benchmark 10-year notes <US10YT=RR>up just 3/32 for a yield of 4.86 percent, down from 4.87 percent on Tuesday.

Some White House officials, including Snow, do have access to official economic data prior to its official release, although the timing of such access is unclear.

[54anickel]

33. Asian Stocks Climb to 16-Year Highs; Thailand's SET Index Jumps

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aeXobPM1SxfM&refer=asia

April 5 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks climbed to 16-year highs, led by exporters including Toyota Motor Corp. and LG.Philips LCD Co., after Federal Reserve officials suggested U.S. policy makers are almost finished raising rates.

``Exporters are gaining as investors anticipate the Fed may stop raising rates later this year,'' said Hiroshi Chano, who helps manage $6.7 billion at Yasuda Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. ``The U.S. economy is more stable than investors initially feared.''

Thailand's stocks rose to their highest in more than two years after Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said he will step down amid protest rallies and a political standoff that crippled his government. Canon Inc., the world's top digital camera maker, rose to a record.

snip>

Fed Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig, in a speech yesterday to business leaders in Kansas City, Missouri, suggested policy makers are ``very close to where we need to be'' on rates. The U.S. economy is expanding at a ``solid pace,'' while inflation is ``low and stable,'' Richmond Fed Bank President Jeffrey Lacker said yesterday.

The comments eased concern that the Fed may raise rates further, after 15-straight rate increases since June 2004. An end to rate increases may boost consumer spending in the U.S., the largest market for Asian goods.

more...

[UpInArms]

34. AK Steel to raise steel prices by about 6%-9%

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BA12F97A1%2DF187%2D4CD3%2D941B%2D9FAED69D347A%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - AK Steel Holdings Corp. (AKS 15.46, +0.39, +2.6% ) said Wednesday it plans to increase prices for rolled stainless steel products by about 6%. The Middletown, Ohio, company said prices for stainless steel continuous mill plate will increase about 9%. Shares of AK Steel closed Tuesday at $15.46 on the New York Stock Exchange.

[UpInArms]

35. Gold resumes march toward $600

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BED0D7D7F%2D7ABF%2D4D32%2DA991%2DC14263564CCB%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rose early Wednesday, resuming their climb toward the $600-an-ounce level that analysts are expecting will be reached in the near term.

Gold for June delivery was last trading up $2.30 at $592.90 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Tuesday, the contract pulled back as traders locked in gains after a series of multidecade highs.

"The geopolitical backdrop and expectations for continued fund demand have underpinned prices in the early part of Q2," said analysts at Action Economics.

<snip>

The big question is what big institutional investors such as hedge funds and pension funds make of global developments in the coming months and how it impacts their view of the gold price, said Cross.

"What, if anything, will trigger a decision on their part to reassess the allocation of their portfolios and what that might mean for the gold price?" she said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

49. Gold, silver prices climb; copper futures at all-time high

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B7E7410DA%2D0CF5%2D4CDA%2DA8CB%2D7DC96D8107EA%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- June gold climbed $3.50 to $594.10 an ounce, trading as high as $594.70, while May silver tacked on 2 cents to stand at $11.75 an ounce. May copper rose as high as $2.583 a pound, the highest futures level ever. The contract was last up 4.05 cents, or 1.6%, at $2.576. "With stock draw downs gaining momentum in most of the metals and with consumers likely to be gearing up ahead of the summer slowdown, physical demand should be gaining momentum," said Williams Adams, an analyst at BaseMetals.com. "This, and ongoing concerns over supply are likely to underpin prices, so unless some external event upsets the funds, the upward trends are likely to keep prices on the rise," he said in a note to clients.

[54anickel]

51. Gold nanoparticles to trap toxins

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/4872188.stm

Tiny particles of gold could soon be helping to spot viruses, bacteria and toxins used by bio-terrorists.

Researchers in the UK have found that gold nanoparticles are very effective detectors of biological toxins.

The particles reveal the presence of poisons far faster than existing techniques which often involve shipping samples back to a lab.

The aim is to integrate the technology in a portable device that could give instant answers at crime scenes.

snip>

When mixed with a weak solution of the sugar-coated nanoparticles, the target substance, be it a poison such as ricin or a bug like E.coli, binds to the sugar. This changes the properties of the solution and makes it change colour.

more...

[54anickel]

77. Gold price hits record high in Beijing

http://english.people.com.cn/200604/05/eng20060405_256205.html

The price of gold hit a record high in Beijing on Wednesday as price rose from 162 yuan (20.25 U.S. dollars) per gram to 170 yuan (21.25 dollars).

The rise came after the domestic raw material gold price reached 151 yuan per gram on Tuesday, Beijing Daily reported.

"Gold has never been sold at such a high price in Beijing," said Wang Jian, general manager of the Gongmei Mansion Gold Store, told the paper.

"I doubt whether consumers will hesitate to buy gold ornaments now," he said.

more...

[UpInArms]

81. June Gold @ $592.40 oz - May Silver @ $11.745 oz - May Copper @ $2.587 lb

12:04 PM ET 4/5/06 JUNE GOLD RISES $1.80 TO $592.40/OZ AFTER $594.70 HIGH

12:04 PM ET 4/5/06 MAY SILVER UP 1.5C AT $11.745/OZ AFTER $11.79 HIGH

12:04 PM ET 4/5/06 MAY COPPER UP 2% AT $2.587/LB AFTER A RECORD $2.592

[UpInArms]

36. Snow mulling leaving Treasury post: report

:eyes:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B8328EB02%2DC9F7%2D43FE%2DB20D%2D4637B9581029%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Treasury Secretary John Snow has expressed an interest in leaving his job in the next several months, according to a report in the New York Times Wednesday. The report is based on an unidentified "person close" to Snow. The story also quotes an unidentified Republican "in close contact with the West Wing staff" of the White House saying that the officials were expecting Snow to step down. "They're waiting for Snow to do the right thing. They thought he would have gotten the message right now and submitted his resignation," the Republican said.

[54anickel]

53. Treasury's Snow Suffers From Faint Support in Robust Economy

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=abiYg7ww2rJQ&refer=us

April 5 (Bloomberg) -- John Snow's stewardship of the U.S. economy compares favorably with any Treasury secretary since the 1960s -- which is doing nothing to stop talk he's on the way out.

Snow is being blamed for President George W. Bush's failure to get a political lift from an economy that's created 4 million jobs in the last two years. Speculation on Snow's future is growing now that Joshua Bolten, who takes over as Bush's chief of staff April 15, has been given the go-ahead by the president to reorganize the White House staff.

``Snow's demise has been predicted almost since he took the job,'' said Vin Weber, a former Republican lawmaker from Minnesota who retains close ties to the White House. ``Eventually, the speculation that Snow is going to leave is going to become a self-fulfilling prophesy.''

The U.S. economy is doing as well under Snow as it did under Robert Rubin, President Bill Clinton's Treasury secretary. Forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg News predict growth at an annual rate of 4.7 percent this quarter, which would lift the average under Snow to 3.8 percent, matching Rubin's record and that of James Baker, President Ronald Reagan's Treasury chief.

snip>

The economy is one of the few bright spots for Bush. :spray: Almost two-thirds of Americans disapprove of the president's handling of the war in Iraq, according to a Feb. 25-March 1 Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll. Bush's support for the sale of six U.S. port terminals to a Dubai company provoked a revolt among lawmakers, and his campaign for changes to the Social Security system failed last year. Bush's approval rating fell to 37 percent in a March 29-30 Time Magazine poll.

more...

[UpInArms]

57. Treasury's SnowJob--Vital to boost US economic growth

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-05T140103Z_01_N05277052_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-SNOW.XML

WASHINGTON, April 5 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow, testifying before a U.S. House of Representatives subcommittee on Wednesday, said it was vital to increase the pace of economic growth.

"To reach our greatest potential, the economy must increase its rate of growth and create new, high quality jobs for all Americans," Snow said in prepared remarks as he presented Treasury's fiscal 2007 budget requests to Congress.

Treasury is seeking $11.6 billion for fiscal 2007, which begins Oct. 1, slightly more than its 2006 budget.

Snow said that was "consistent with the president's overall goal of cutting our deficit in half by 2009" and said Treasury was committed to boosting revenues through continued economic growth.

More Up is Down and Black is White bullshit :mad:

[AnneD]

72. But Snow "is a great cheerleader..."

While the unemployment rate fell to 4.8 percent in February from 6.3 percent in June 2003, workers' pay has risen at a slower rate than in other expansions, companies are paying a smaller share of their profits in salaries than at any time since the Great Depression and the budget deficit will be a record this year.

That may explain why three-fifths of Americans disapprove of Bush's handling of the economy, compared with 37 percent who approve, according to the Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll.

They didn't but those stat until the very end and even then, they try to minimize them. FYI 3/5th (doesn't than sound small) is 60% (doesn't that sound bigger). Sixty percent of the US thinks Bush's economy sucks. That doesn't sound too good. So now they are trying to make us feel like we're stupid and shouldn't believe what we see and feel. Morans.....:eyes:

[Roland99]

85. In Bizarro World, propped and fragile = robust.

[Tace]

38. MOGAMBO GURU: 'Congratulations, War-Criminal Pentagon Buttheads!'

Richard Daughty, the angriest guy in economics -- World News Trust

snip

And if you want to see real horror and an angry population, wait until our Iraq and Afghanistan veterans start dying from the teensiest, weensiest little speck of that radioactive "depleted uranium" crap that got into their lungs, and in their guts, and into their clothes, and burned its way permanently into their tissues.

And it is not just them, either! According to Karl W. B. Schwarz, Rense.com, co-author of the Aldermaston Report released in February, "The effects of those bombing attacks were registered as far away as the UK." Hahaha! Congratulations, war-criminal Pentagon buttheads! Having fun blowing up stuff with depleted-uranium munitions is contaminating millions of people and the entire continent, permanently!

And what does this have to do with Agent Orange? Well, not much. It has to do with money, and just as the Agent Orange victims are moving toward litigation, Mr. Schwarz envisions a huge class-action lawsuit as a result of this demonic depleted-uranium thing. "It would sort of be," he says, "The Citizens of the United States, Active Duty and Veterans of the U.S. Armed Services v. The United States Government, certain Defense Contractors, Certain Individuals. My guess is the true price tag for their criminal negligence could easily top $1 trillion in damages the Plaintiffs should be entitled to."

And now think about the coming generations, for the next tens of thousands of years, as whole populations of people want to be compensated because of the radioactive contamination that resulted from the irresponsible, despicable way the America military acted today! Hahaha! And yet you want another reason why I am recommending gold? Ugh.

more

http://worldnewstrust.org/modules/AMS/article.php?storyid=2950

[UpInArms]

40. pre-opening blather

09:16 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.8. Futures indications are at their best levels heading into the open, now suggesting a modestly positive start. Treasuries catching a bid despite a lack of data has improved sentiment while reports that Apple Computer (AAPL) has released new software to run Windows XP on Intel-based Macs is also acting as a source of early support.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.8. Stage remains set for the cash market to open in lackluster fashion as traders continue to show little conviction on either side of the aisle in the early going. Until something disrupts the market's current underlying tone, however, the path of least resistance is slightly higher albeit still cautious heading into Friday's influential employment data.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.8. Still little enthusiasm seen in the futures market as current indications suggest the indices will begin on a relatively flat note. Investors have recently sifted through better than expected Q2 earnings from Monsanto (MON) but the news has not been enough to sway early sentiment and will not have much influence on the overall market.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.5. Futures trade versus fair value suggests a flat start for stocks as the absence of notable news items provides little incentive for investors to extend recent gains. ISM Services will be out at 10:00 ET and oil inventory data will hit the wires at 10:30 ET, perhaps setting a more definitive tone to trading.

[UpInArms]

42. Study: Bush tax cuts making rich richer

I'm shocked! Shocked, I tell you! :sarcasm:

http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/05/news/tax_cuts/?cnn=yes

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - President Bush's tax cuts for investment income have significantly lowered the tax burden on the richest Americans, reducing taxes on incomes of more than $10 million by an average of about $500,000, according to a report Wednesday.

An analysis of Internal Revenue Service data by The New York Times found that the benefit of the lower taxes on investments was more concentrated on the very wealthiest Americans than the benefits of President Bush's two previous tax cuts.

<snip>

According to the study, taxpayers with incomes greater than $10 million reduced their investment tax bill by an average of about $500,000 in 2003, and their total tax savings, which included the two Bush tax cuts on compensation, nearly doubled, to slightly more than $1 million.

These taxpayers, whose average income was $26 million, paid about the same share of their income in income taxes as those making $200,000 to $500,000 because of the lowered rates on investment income.

<snip>

The newspaper's tax cut analysis showed that more than 70 percent of the tax savings on investment income went to the top 2 percent, about 2.6 million taxpayers.

...more...

[UpInArms]

45. Sen. Frist: Hope to finish tax talks this week

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B4F8F5BAF%2DDDA1%2D44B8%2DA21D%2D242240A0EEED%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., said Wednesday that he is putting House-Senate conference committee negotiations over tax cuts on a "fast track," with the aim of completing talks before lawmakers leave for a two-week recess at the end of the week. Frist, speaking at a U.S. Chamber of Commerce breakfast, said he hasn't changed his demand that a final bill include provisions extending lower tax rates on capital gains and dividends that would otherwise expire in 2008. A final bill must also include relief from the alternative minimum tax, which House Republicans have sought to move separately. "On the Senate side, I have to have AMT in there or I can't pass this bill," Frist said.

[UpInArms]

78. Frist aims to accelerate tax talks

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B6F9623ED%2D243E%2D4F8C%2DACA8%2DA5D7B694A124%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Stymied by slow moving negotiations on pension legislation, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., said Wednesday he's now committed to kick-starting House-Senate negotiations on tax cuts.

House and Senate members have been attempting to patch differences between significantly different versions of legislation that would provide around $70 billion in tax cuts over the next five years, largely through extending measures passed in 2001 and 2003.

"I'm going to put the conference report on a fast track in that I would like to get it finished" before lawmakers leave at the end of the week for the Easter recess, Frist told business lobbyists at a U.S. Chamber of Commerce breakfast.

The centerpiece of the House tax bill would extend provisions of the 2003 tax cut that lowered the tax rate on most capital gains and corporate dividends to 15%. Previously, most capital gains were taxed at a rate of 20%, while corporate dividends were taxed at personal income tax rates, which now top out at 35%.

The investor-oriented tax cuts don't expire until the end of 2008, but Wall Street lobbyists and the Bush administration have argued that the measures must be extended in order to prevent investor uncertainty that could harm the economy.

Amid opposition by Democrats and deficit-wary Republicans, the Senate version omitted the investor relief, instead focusing on measures to extend relief to middle-class taxpayers hit by the alternative minimum tax, or AMT. The AMT is a levy enacted in 1969 that initially targeted a handful of wealthy Americans who had avoided paying any income tax, but that is now forecast to encroach on tens of millions of households in coming years unless a permanent fix is found.

...more...

[AnneD]

88. Translation....

Frist's Hopes of GOP Presidental Nomination On Life Support....Refuses to Pull Plug.

Despite popular opinion and economic facts, Frist has been in telephone consultation with other specialist (wealthy contributers) and has called lawmakers in to a special session to try and vote they way he think they should. Frist made a diagnosis of the economy's flat line vital signs after a 30 minute call. "I am positive I saw signs of life, it just needs 4 more years of trickle down supply side theraphy. We just need more time and I need more donations."


Gee this Hackberry hand held translator really come up with the most interesting translations.

[InsultComicDog]

62. previous article brought to you by the kind folks at "No Shit Sherlock"

[ozymandius]

43. Markets are open for bidness.

9:45
Dow 11,219.06 +15.21 (+0.14%)
Nasdaq 2,352.13 +6.77 (+0.29%)
S&P 500 1,307.82 +1.89 (+0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 48.41 -0.31 (-0.64%)
NYSE Volume 153,494,000
Nasdaq Volume 189,959,000

09:40 am : As improved futures trade presaged, the market is trading slightly higher at the onset. While there wasn't a lot of notable news out to sway early sentiment, investors have since found some comfort in falling bond yields, especially ahead of Friday's jobs data, and encouraging news from Apple Computer (AAPL 65.10 +3.93) regarding new software that will let Macs run Microsoft's (MSFT 27.92 +0.28) Windows XP. DJ30 +23.37 NASDAQ +11.14 SP500 +2.79 NASDAQ Vol 132 mln NYSE Vol 54 mln

[54anickel]

47. Emerging-Market Bonds Riskier Than Yields Show

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=aXlA3jot_0C4&refer=latin_america

April 4 (Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market bonds are riskier than yields indicate, Citigroup Inc.'s Senior Vice-Chairman William Rhodes said.

``There is a need for investors and lenders to be prudent,'' Rhodes said during an Institute of International Finance press conference in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.

Investment flows into emerging markets have pushed bond prices to record highs, including debt sold by countries whose economies aren't on a path of sustainable growth, Rhodes said. As interest rates around the globe climb, flows into emerging markets will drop and boost borrowing costs for the governments.

The average difference in yield between emerging market bonds denominated in U.S. dollars and U.S. Treasuries fell to 1.86 percentage points on March 2, the narrowest on record, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s benchmark emerging-market index.

more...

[UpInArms]

50. Second Homes Accounted for 39.9% of all 2005 Home Sales

9:53 AM ET 4/5/06 SECOND-HOME SALES ROSE 16% TO 3.34 MILLION HOMES: NAR

9:53 AM ET 4/5/06 SECOND HOMES ACCOUNTED FOR 39.9% OF 2005 HOME SALES: NAR

eta:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BCBBE5561%2DCE36%2D45A4%2D97A9%2DED4B3327BE5B%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Sales of second homes increased by 16% in 2005 to a record 39.9% of all U.S. existing home sales, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday. Sales of vacation homes rose 16.9% to a record 1.02 million, while sales of homes owned for investment purposes increased by 15.7% to a record 2.32 million, the real estate industry group said. The median price of a vacation home was $204,100, up 7.4%. The median price for an investment property cost $183,500, up 24%.

[54anickel]

68. Wal-Mart shuffles five executives

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2006-04-05T130934Z_01_WEN4017_RTRUKOC_0_US-RETAIL-WALMART.xml

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Wednesday shifted five executives into new posts, moves that the world's biggest retailer said would help train a new crop of leaders.

Wal-Mart, which has a history of shuffling top executives so that they can learn how different parts of the business operate, promoted human resources executive Lawrence Jackson to president and chief executive officer of its global procurement division, which buys goods from around the world.

The company also promoted Susan Chambers to fill Jackson's former role as executive vice president of human resources, which Wal-Mart calls the "people division."

Chambers wrote the now infamous Wal-Mart memo on reducing health-care costs that included controversial recommendations such as adding physical activity to all jobs as a way to discourage unhealthy people from applying.

"These leaders are people of great capacity... :eyes:

more...

[UpInArms]

69. AIG "No Impact" Pays $1.1 Million Fine

10:28am 04/05/06 NASD fines AIG affiliate for directed brokerage - MarketWatch.com

10:28am 04/05/06 American General Securities fined more than $1.1 mln - MarketWatch.com

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BD6E5C95F%2DB024%2D4B8B%2DB8B8%2D5CDD3F4599F6%7D&siteid=mktw&dateid=38812%2E4426134954%2D867685344

BOSTON (MarketWatch) - The National Association of Securities Dealers Wednesday said it has fined American General Securities Inc., a member company of American International Group (AIG), more than $1.1 million in connection with its receipt of directed brokerage in return for providing preferential treatment to certain mutual fund companies and for other violations. The announced action involves violations of NASD's Anti-Reciprocal Rule, which prohibits firms from favoring the sale of shares of particular mutual funds on the basis of brokerage commissions received by the firm. Among other things, the rule prohibits a firm from recommending funds or establishing preferred lists of funds in exchange for receipt of directed brokerage, NASD said in a press release.

[UpInArms]

74. Goodyear Tire to cut 1,500 jobs

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BB5CDB108%2D7454%2D41B8%2D815A%2D942CFA76E28D%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Goodyear Tire & Rubber said it will cut 1,500 jobs, mostly outside the U.S., as the company tries to compensate for rising raw-materials prices and declining North American volumes.

Goodyear (GT 14.25, -0.02, -0.1% ) said it plans to close a U.K. tire plant, stop producing bicycle tires in Poland and will cut logistics, retail and administrative jobs in the E.U., Asia Pacific and its engineered-products lines. See Dow Jones U.S. Auto Parts Index.

The actions will create annual savings of $30 million to $40 million after tax, and result in a charge of $75 million to $85 million.

The world's largest tire maker said $40 million of that charge will be recognized in the first and second quarters of 2006.

Chairman and CEO Robert Kegan said on the conference call that the company would intensify its cost-cutting efforts.

The Akron, Ohio-based company swung to a loss of $51 million in the fourth quarter on a hike in rubber prices and hurricane-related costs even as sales increased. See full story.

...more...

[UpInArms]

76. 11:36 EST numbers and blather

Dow 11,178.16 -25.69 (-0.23%)
Nasdaq 2,343.03 -2.33 (-0.10%)
S&P 500 1,305.87 -0.06 (-0.00%)
10-Yr Bond 4.851 -0.21 (-0.43%)

NYSE Volume 892,736,000
Nasdaq Volume 779,777,000

11:30 am : Indices still trade near session lows, but overall there is not a strong sense of conviction on either the bullish or bearish side of the aisle. Meanwhile, despite the Dow Transports still hovering near historic highs, weakness in conglomerates (e.g. GE, TYC), construction/engineering (e.g. CAT, PCAR), aerospace/defense (e.g. BA, LMT, GD, NOC) and human resources (e.g. RHI, MNST) have removed early leadership from the influential Industrials sector. DJ30 -12.49 DJTA +0.3% NASDAQ +1.14 SP500 +0.88 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1547/1248/736 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1518/1513/550 mln

11:00 am : Within the last 30 minutes, the Dow turned negative and the Nasdaq hit its lowest level of the morning as oil prices spiked higher following weekly oil data. Crude oil futures were up almost 1.0% and flirting with $67 per barrel after the Energy Dept showed a larger than expected draw down in distillates and gasoline inventories. Renewed leadership in Energy, which has turned positive in sympathy with oil's advance, has acted as a source of market support but ExxonMobil's (XOM 61.81 +0.06) paltry gain has not been enough to lift the Dow out of the red.DJ30 -12.25 NASDAQ +3.57 SP500 +0.79 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1353/1381/624 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1268/1698/452 mln

10:30 am : Not much changed since the last update as investors shrug off the day's only scheduled economic report. March ISM Services checked in at a better than expected read of 60.5 (consensus 59.0) as the prices paid component fell to its lowest level since last June and employment remained relatively strong. However, since the index trends are fairly steady, it is not closely followed by the markets and has taken a back seat to Friday's more influential jobs report.

[Roland99]

86. 2:24pm - Mirror image of this morning

DJIA 11,233.30 +29.40
Nasdaq 2,357.45 +12.09
S&P 500 1,310.97 +5.04
Russell 2000 765.07 +2.75
30 Yr Bond 4.90 -0.02
10 Yr Bond 4.84 -0.03

[UpInArms]

79. The Economics of Henry Ford May Be Passé

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/05/business/05leonhardt.html?ex=1301889600&en=4a40c4af82f963e6&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

"One's own employees ought to be one's own best customers," Mr. Ford said years later. "Paying high wages," he concluded, "is behind the prosperity of this country."

This turned into a pillar of 20th-century economic wisdom. It's time to ask, though, whether Mr. Ford's big idea is as ill suited to this century as his car company seems to be.

By any reasonable standard, the last few years have been bad ones for most people's paychecks. The average hourly wage of rank-and-file workers — a group that makes up 80 percent of the work force — is slightly lower than it was four years ago, once inflation is taken into account. That's right: Most Americans have taken a pay cut since 2002.

<snip>

In the last few years, however, the economy has kept growing in large part because high-income families — the top 20 percent, roughly — have done so well and have been such devoted spenders. Globalization and new technology have helped many white-collar workers make more money, even as those same changes have closed factories and depressed wages for others. Stock portfolios and houses on the coasts, meanwhile, are much more valuable than they once were, making their owners more willing to spend.

In fact, well-off families, not cash-short ones, have been the ones increasing their borrowing and cutting their savings the most in recent years, according to the Federal Reserve. In 1992, the top fifth of households, as ranked by income, accounted for 42 percent of consumer spending. By 2000, the share had grown to almost 46 percent, and it is probably not much different today. That may sound like a small change, but it's an enormous amount of money, a shift of $300 billion a year in spending from the poor and middle class to the affluent.

[IChing]

84. Seems like they are advocating a old european class society with

this statement:


"Paying high wages," he concluded, "is behind the prosperity of this country." (ford)

the author states:
"This turned into a pillar of 20th-century economic wisdom. It's time to ask, though, whether Mr. Ford's big idea is as ill suited to this century as his car company seems to be."

[AnneD]

87. Hummmmmm, let's think this through.....

Top 1/4 of wealthiest families get 2/3's of the money. OK they can put a plasma tv in every room in the house and you might sell 8-10 tvs (which really is an overstretch-you might sell 1-3). Wealth people tend not to watch much tv so you'll be lucky to sell one (25x1=25). But if the 3/4Th's can afford to buy 1 you are looking at selling more (75x1=75).


Now you can play around with variables. Out of 100 people, 25 are rich and can afford 3 plasma tvs (3x25=75). But now really, do you think you can sell a person 3 plasma tvs. Now you have 50 that are middle class and 25 that are poor. Now if the price is decent and everyone made good money it might look like this if they all bought 1 (75x1=75), and at worst you might sell 1 tv to 50 middle class (1x50=50).


So, not including variables-you will always sell more to the middle class and poor as long as they have decent wages. If there are no decent wages for the middle class and poor, then you will see what is currently happening, only the wealthy have enough disposable income to have any purchasing power.

Henry Ford may not have been liked by many but he was a smart businessman....far smarter than most of those selfish pricks that like to think they are businessmen. He turned industry on the its head by offering good wages AND a reduced work week (workers needed time to drive their new cars bought on installment). It is that type of leadership we need to turn this economy into something sustainable. We will truly become a 2 tier economy, like Central and South America....and look how much innovation has come out of there in the last century.:eyes: It doesn't happen without a strong vibrant middle class.

This 'economist' has his head up his ass and is just rationalizing the screw job we are getting. This democracy is inching toward some type of socialism unless the middle class gets a larger slice of the pie they have been making.

[IChing]

89. Hardly inching to a type of socialism (which I advocate) unless you

think that corporate socialism is a viable economic social system

A Modern Economic Feudalistic class system which we are inching to.

[AnneD]

92. Don't get me wrong....

People are starting to experience discomfort now. Money has been sucked away from middle class and poor. Now, one serious incident in the economy a depression or these retirement shell game come to light and you are going to see some serious fireworks that will make the Social Security reform revolt look like cap gun blast. People ARE waking up, one by one. The fact that we came so close to socialism during the Great Depression caused many a wealthy to piss their pants. With the changes in the immenant domain laws, who knows what kind of assets might be seized for the public interest-or at least taxed.

[54anickel]

95. It's just like in politics - the middle is being gutted out, moving to

what at first glance "looks like" far extremes. The "neo-cons" took the right to the far right, Clinton moved toward the middle. The the middle keeps moving further to the right so true Dems look like far left extremists (damned bleeding heart liberals) :hippie:, yet they really haven't changed at all. Now the Dems are at odds with each other between the DNC and the DLC. At least the Republicans are finally beginning to suffer the same type of division now that the old "Conservative" guard has started to wake up.

The upper middle-class (for the most part) moved higher, the middle middle-class dropped to lower middle-class, the lower middle-class simply got "left behind". Economically, just like politically, the middle is being gutted out. Meanwhile, the ubber wealthy oligarchy (who don't share or play well with others) have got to be feeling a bit threatened by the new-comers to the wealthy class - they're getting to close to acquiring some real power and political clout in this plutocracy. By god, some of them are become RNC pioneers! They are buying influence through lobbyist! My guess is that those folks are hoping and praying for another depression. Sure seems like Bush is trying his damnest to bring one about.

[UpInArms]

82. U.S. auto industry in 'precarious' state-Ford CEO

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-05T162952Z_01_N05287625_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-FORD.XML

DETROIT, April 5 (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co. (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research) Chairman and Chief Executive Bill Ford Jr. on Wednesday said the Detroit auto industry is in a "precarious" situation.

"We do have our work cut out for us," Ford told reporters before an award ceremony in Detroit.

"We are acutely aware of how precarious the industry is. As the world starts to shift around us, it's really up to us to be nimble and up to us to be able to react," he said.

Strong competition, soaring health-care and raw material costs, and a slide in U.S market share forced the second-largest U.S. automaker to announce a second restructuring plan for its North American operations in four years.

Saddled with a junk-debt rating and facing a sharp drop in U.S. market share, Ford's plan, dubbed "Way Forward," calls for the closing of 14 plants and slashing up to 30,000 blue-collar jobs and is designed to reverse a $1.6 billion loss last year in its North American operations.

...more...

[UpInArms]

93. Bush administration snake-oil salesmen offers FHA reform proposal

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-05T193847Z_01_N05380314_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-HOUSING-FHA.XML

WASHINGTON, April 5 (Reuters) - The Bush administration on Wednesday proposed a bill meant to help first-time and low-income homebuyers access loans by updating laws restricting the mortgages insured by the Federal Housing Administration.

The U.S. Housing and Urban Development Department (HUD), at a subcommittee hearing in the House of Representatives, said the legislation would allow the Federal Housing Administration to reach homebuyers who, without its help, would have to take out high-cost mortgages to purchase homes.

Brian Montgomery, HUD's assistant secretary for housing and the federal housing commissioner, said U.S. law must be updated if FHA is to remain relevant in the housing market, where the private sector has created many products that help people with little cash or spotty credit get into homes.

<snip>

It is one of several federal housing programs aimed at boosting liquidity in the U.S. housing market and promoting homeownership, especially among low- and moderate-income Americans.

The measure offered on Wednesday and promised by the White House when it released its proposed budget in February would eliminate the minimum downpayment required on loans insured by the FHA, allowing borrowers to put nothing down on their purchase.

...more...

[ozymandius]

94. at the close

Dow 11,239.55 +35.70 (+0.32%)
Nasdaq 2,359.75 +14.39 (+0.61%)
S&P 500 1,311.56 +5.63 (+0.43%)
10-Yr Bond 48.39 -0.33 (-0.68%)
NYSE Volume 2,380,789,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,027,293,000

4:20 pm : The market continued to show its resilience in the face of rising oil prices and 10-yr note yields near four-year highs as buyers finally found enough catalysts to keep sellers on the sidelines and extend recent gains. Even though the day began with little fanfare amid a dearth of notable news to sway early sentiment, eight out of ten sectors closing higher helped the Dow and Nasdaq again hit new 5-year highs.

Providing the largest source of support on the Composite was Technology. The sector got an initial boost from Apple Computer (AAPL 67.21 +6.04), which released new software that will let Intel-based Macs run Microsoft's (MSFT 27.74 +0.10) Windows XP; Intel (INTC 19.48 +0.18) is a suggested holding in our Active Portfolio. Speaking of semiconductors, leading the way on the PHLX Semi Index was Marvel Technology (MRVL 57.97 +2.90), the latest addition to our portfolio which shrugged off early nervousness related to Maxtor's (MXO 9.91 -0.17) profit warning.

Even though crude oil prices (+1.3%) closed near their best levels of the session, leadership from Energy, which is again expected to account for the bulk of profit growth on the S&P 500, was a big reason why investors weren't overly concerned about $67/pbl crude. Consumer Discretionary, which normally cringes at the sight of rising energy prices, also traded higher largely from strength in department stores, consumer & electronics retail and a 2.9% surge in homebuilders. The latter benefited from a relief rally in Treasuries that knocked the yield on the 10-yr note (+06/32) down to 4.83%. Materials also posted a gain of more than 1.0% as upbeat comments out of CSFB about metals & mining stocks helped offset a sell-the-news reaction to better than expected Q2 earnings from Monsanto (MON 85.51 -0.37).

Bond traders found comfort from a key inflation metric in the March ISM Services report falling to its lowest level in more than two years and comments from Kansas City Fed President Hoenig who said the central bank is "very close to where we need to be," suggesting rate hikes are nearing an end. Falling bond yields also helped Financial, which struggled early on as investors were tempted to consolidate gains in the bank and broker indexes -- both of which remain near historic highs.

Health Care, however, was under pressure all day, led by weakness in medical equipment, following a Q1 warning from St. Jude Medical (STJ 36.17 -5.13), as well as profit-taking in healthcare supplies and healthcare services -- two of the day's top four worst performing industry groups. BTK -0.1% DJ30 +35.70 DJTA +1.0% DJUA +1.0% DOT +0.4% NASDAQ +14.39 NQ100 +0.9% R2K +0.5% SOX +2.8% SP400 +0.7% SP500 +5.63 XOI +1.9% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1382/1681/2.0 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1301/1976/1.6 bln