STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 6 April

[ozymandius]

Thursday April 6, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 1019 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1932 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1632 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1593
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 5, 2006

Dow... 11,239.55 +35.70 (+0.32%)
Nasdaq... 2,359.75 +14.39 (+0.61%)
S&P 500... 1,311.56 +5.63 (+0.43%)
Gold future... 592.50 +1.90 (+0.32%)
30-Year Bond 4.89% -0.02 (-0.41%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.84% -0.03 (-0.68%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Chris Puplava

IS THIS TIME DIFFERENT? HISTORY SAYS NO

In my last market WrapUp (03.22.06), I commented on the valuation of the S&P 500 sectors using the Ford Equity Research Graphs that use PE valuation bands over set time frames. I commented on the different sector earnings trends seen by the direction and slope of the earnings bands and wanted to follow up with why those earnings trends were occurring. I looked at the sector’s respective sales figures to shed some light on the earnings trend as well as to compare apples to apples by normalizing each sector’s sales figures.

To do this I took the top ten market cap stocks in each S&P sector and made a table of their sales figures for each quarter since 2001 (note that the Telecom Index has only 8 companies). I then took the sum of the sales for the ten stocks for each quarter and normalized the data to the first quarter of 2001, where the first quarter of 2001 represents 100. Taking each sector I made a chart with all the S&P sectors for comparison of sales growth since 1st Q 2001. The results are summarized in the chart below.

-see charts-

In my last WrapUp I commented that the utility sector was overvalued on a 10-year and 3-year basis, and that earnings have been flat as seen by the utility sector’s flat earnings trend bands in its 3-year chart. This observation makes sense when looking at the utility sector’s sales performance from 1st Q 2001. Sales initially plummeted 50% by April 2002 and have remained relatively flat since then, never recovering to the sales level of 1st Q 2001. Because of the poor sales performance, and thus earnings performance, the PE ratio for utilities has risen since the beginning of the current bull market predominantly from price appreciation and not earnings growth. This implies that the price movement in utilities has been entirely speculative driven, in stark contrast to energy stock appreciation where earnings have outgrown price appreciation and have actually DRIVEN DOWN the PE ratio.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. One report today -

8:30 AM Initial Claims 04/01
Briefing Forecast 305K
Market Expects 305K
Prior 302K

[UpInArms]

20. Initial Claims at 299,000

8:30 AM ET 4/6/06 U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 22,000 TO 2.440 MLN

8:30 AM ET 4/6/06 U.S. INITIAL WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS BELOW EXPECTATIONS

8:30 AM ET 4/6/06 U.S. INITIAL WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 5,000 TO 299,000

U.S. initial weekly jobless claims fall 5,000 to 299,000

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BE25B00DC%2D37C3%2D4786%2D867B%2DEF201F352522%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 5,000 to 299,000 in the week ending April 1, the Labor Department said Thursday. It's down from the prior week's revised 304,000 and is the lowest since Feb. 18. The four-week moving average of new claims fell by 2,750 to 308,500.The number of people who continue to collect unemployment benefits fell by 22,000 to 2.440 million in the week ending March 25. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting initial jobless claims to rise to about 306,000.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil extends rally toward $68 on gasoline stockdraw

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices extended gains toward $68 a barrel on Thursday after a bigger-than-expected draw in U.S. gasoline stocks reignited worries about summer supplies in the world's top fuel consumer.

U.S. light sweet crude oil futures climbed 48 cents or 0.7 percent to $67.55 a barrel, adding to Wednesday's 1.3 percent surge. The market touched a two-month high of $67.90 a barrel on Monday before succumbing to a brief round of profit taking.

-cut-

Gasoline tanks are now about 1 million barrels above the upper end of the average range, but the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that stocks could fall sharply before the end of April if more refiners shut for work.

The low inventory level has compounded worries that changing specifications may also create shortages in some areas of the United States, whose gasoline consumption accounts for more than a tenth of the world's oil use.

more...

[UpInArms]

42. DOE: NatGas Stocks down 10 bln cubic ft

10:36 AM ET 4/6/06 U.S. NATURAL GAS SUPPLIES DOWN 10 BLN CUBIC FT: ENERGY DEPT

[UpInArms]

45. Markets expected an increase of 10 billion to 20 billion cubic feet

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B8C9665C9%2D62B6%2D4BBB%2DA9BF%2DF8889E85A371%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- U.S. natural-gas stocks fell by 10 billion cubic feet for the week ended March 31, the Energy Department reported Thursday. IFR Markets expected an increase of 10 billion to 20 billion cubic feet, but Global Insight was looking for a decline of 10 billion. Total stocks now stand at 1.695 trillion cubic feet, up 447 billion cubic feet from the year-ago level, and 654 billion cubic feet above the five-year average, the government data said. May natural gas was up 4.1 cents at $7.14 per million British thermal units.

[UpInArms]

44. May Unleaded @ $1.98 gal

10:43 AM ET 4/6/06 MAY UNLEADED GAS TAPS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE EARLY SEPTEMBER

10:43 AM ET 4/6/06 MAY UNLEADED GAS UP 3.29C AT $1.98/GAL AFTER $2.004 HIGH

[UpInArms]

63. May Crude @ $67.68 bbl - May Unleaded Gas @ $1.988 gal

1:08 PM ET 4/6/06 MAY CRUDE RISES 61C TO $67.68/BRL IN AFTERNOON DEALINGS

1:08 PM ET 4/6/06 MAY NATURAL GAS FALLS 3.9C TO $7.03/MLN BTU AFTER $7.25 HIGH

1:08 PM ET 4/6/06 MAY UNLEADED GAS UP 2.1% AT $1.988 AFTER 6-MO HIGH OF $2.004

[UpInArms]

85. Crude closes @ $67.94 bbl

2:54 PM ET 4/6/06 CRUDE FUTURES CLOSE UP 87C AT $67.94 A BARREL

[JNelson6563]

4. Mornin' Ozy and Marketeers!

I watch gold hit $600 an oz today!! Zowie!!!

I really wanted to comment on the 'toon though Oz, holy cow! Brilliant!! Great find. I love you guys.

Off to get kids up and out door. Will check back.

Cheers :toast:

Julie

[ozymandius]

6. Cheers Julie!

:donut: And good morning to you too.

I think about you, being long on gold, whenever it jumps to new highs. Thanks for popping by.

Ozy :hi:

[54anickel]

13. Mornin' Julie!

Ahhh yes, the old faithful dog is still running and hunting strong! I only wish I could have afforded a bit more back in the hoarding days. Have you sewn yours into your robe yet? ;-) :hi:

[AnneD]

53. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: Day had an early start and I am just NOW getting to the thread. Julie, I just knew gold would finish over 600 by the end of this week. People are skittish, and rightfully so. Everyone (with any sense) is looking for a safe port for the coming storm.

I survived the Boys Growth and Development class. I have the most sympathy for boys, they mature later and they don't get as much good info or it is just harder for them. I had some special ed boys and that made it a bit tougher than usual.

This summer is shaping up to be interesting politically. Crawford will be hotter than usual I think. Fitzgerald is making it tough on the WH, and Ronnie Earl is like a bull dog with a fresh grip on DeLay's leg.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears:hi:

[ozymandius]

5. Home loan demand rises as rates near 4-yr high

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Mortgage applications rose for a second consecutive week, an industry trade group said on Wednesday, as consumers rushed to lock in loans as long-term interest rates rose to a near-four-year high.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity for the week ended March 31 rose 7.2 percent to 612.8 from the previous week's 571.7.

"When rates make a sudden upward move, anybody that was on the fence about refinancing jumps off and gets in the game quick. But now we're seeing that on the purchase side as refinancing activity continues to wane," said Greg McBride, senior financial analyst at Bankrate Inc. in North Palm Beach, Florida.

more...

[ozymandius]

7. Second homes 40% of market

Americans snapping up second homes — as investments or vacation properties — accounted for four out of every 10 sales of existing homes last year, a record that helped drive the real estate market to new highs, according to a report being released today by the National Association of Realtors.

Nearly 28% of homes bought last year were for investment purposes, and an additional 12% were vacation homes, the figures show. Most of the buyers were baby boomers in their top earning years, looking toward retirement and hoping to build wealth or find a more desirable place to live.

more...

[ozymandius]

8. Is Reliance on Real Estate a Crack in the Foundation?

The U.S. economy is more dependent on housing than it has been in a half-century, as the sector fuels consumer spending and has accounted for nearly three-quarters of the nation's job growth in the past five years.

As a result, economists worry that the housing slowdown that began late last year could hurt the broader economy more than past real estate downturns, although other parts of the economy appear to be accelerating.

What makes the real estate boom of the past decade unusual is that its effects have reverberated far beyond closely related sectors such as construction, driving sales in places as varied as furniture stores and motorcycle showrooms, especially in the Washington area and others where home prices have soared particularly rapidly.

"People know they can always refinance or flip their houses, so they are willing to spend more," said Matt Ross, sales manager at Coleman PowerSports in Falls Church, who figures that at least 20 percent of his sales of motorcycles, motor boats, and jet skis are to people who pay for their purchase using home equity.

more...

[54anickel]

14. How Many Bubbles Before the Fatal One?

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=53196

There is a well known old saying “Nothing succeeds like success.” There is another perversion of that saying: “Nothing succeeds like excess!” In recent decades, both have become an acceptable mantra proven by “successive” ends to efforts to create success and excess! As the globe’s economies cross from Winter into Spring in this year 2006, there is virtually no area not enjoying “prosperity” and success. Economic “success”, as usually described by pundits and media (think Larry Kudlow’s television mantra) always encompasses the word “growth.” Virtually in every instance growth in any economic form relates to “profits.” Obviously, profits are success in this early 21st century. Much of the world measures these profits in United States dollars. For much of the last four years, this “growth” or expansion has been fueled by the most incredible growth in global liquidity in the known annals of human history. Not only has there been enormous liquidity, interest rates have been phenomenally low until very recently. Admittedly, the United States Federal Reserve has spent over a year raising the overnight rate in the United States from 1% (below 0% on an inflation adjusted basis) to the current 4.75%, but the longer end of the curve has virtually ignored their efforts. Liquidity during this Federal Reserve charade has mounted. In the case of the broadest measure (to be extinguished with this month’s last report for reasons unexplained by the Federal Reserve) M3 has advanced at rates approaching 10% in recent months. In passing, it might be noted that the required contribution by financial institutions of the components of M3 to the Federal Reserve are to be continued; the Fed just doesn’t want to publish this revealing measure any more.

One of the most prolific areas of growth globally has been real estate, particularly residential real estate. With interest rates at epochal lows around the globe, the old adage in real estate of low rates equals high growth has been exploited to the utmost. Much has been written about this munificent growth in houses and house prices and, other than a “canary in the coal mine story” about one small country sucked into the orgy, this will not concentrate on that aspect of liquidity and credit growth, but on other manifestations.

First, to get the afore-mentioned housing related bubble story out of the way, we would initially mention a central bank today forced to raise its interest rate equivalent to our Fed funds rate to 11.5%! That beleaguered central bank is the central bank of Iceland. This miniature country got caught up in the “house prices only go up” mantra as their relatively high rate several years ago attracted a tsunami of liquidity which poured into - you guessed it - the housing market. As more houses than Icelanders emerged, the market flooded and the tsunami went back out to sea, leaving the Iceland kronor down some 20% in a couple of weeks. How the story will play out, we have no idea, but there is at least a lesson to be learned for possible other liquidity driven booms, bubbles and housing explosions for the near future. The same hedge fund driven carry trade that caused this Icelandic meltdown (technical term) is besetting the New Zealand kiwi, recently forcing their short term rate to over 7%. As these hedge fund games unravel, some serious damage will be done to small, innocent countries. Since there has been a residential property bubble, in each instance, the commercial banking systems, in which most mortgages reside in these small countries, will confront increasingly difficult credit quality, default, foreclosure and bankruptcy situations. This may possibly lead to severe damage or crisis in the banking systems involved.

The Brave (And It Had Better Be) New World Of Credit!

Now we proceed to the main point of this exercise. It is our contention that The World of Credit Extension has changed dramatically since the last significant test of credit during the 1989-1991 slowdown (the 2001 drop was so slight as to have not been a test of underwriting and delinquency in our opinion). We will attempt to catalogue some of the more significant of these changes. There are so many that detailing the whole universe is impossible.

more...

[specimenfred1984]

58. That's One Heck of an Article

It's the best description of the derivatives market I've ever read. It's also the best description of the widespread fraud this whole country is involved in right now.

[54anickel]

83. Had me shakin' while I was reading it. n/t

[UpInArms]

26. New Home Orders down at Brookfield, William Lyon - builders

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B80A60623%2DC619%2D438B%2D967C%2D803F07DBA977%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw&print=true&dist=printTop

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- A pair of home builders said new orders fell in the first quarter from the year-ago period, raising additional fears that activity is slowing in the nation's housing market.

After Wednesday's closing bell, Brookfield Homes Corp. (BHS) reported first-quarter net new orders totaled 227, down 56% from 517 during the same period last year.

The decline was primarily seen in the San Diego and Riverside, Calif., and the Washington, D.C., markets, which tallied 251 fewer orders compared to last year. The Fairfax, Va.-based company cited a "slower and more competitive market environment."

In January, Brookfield said it expected to close 3,125 home and bulk-lot closings in 2006. With market conditions slowing in some areas, "it will be mid-summer 2006 when a better assessment of the 2006 home closings will be made," the company said.

...more...

[54anickel]

51. Foreclosure shock hits Denver

Denver market sees 31.5% increase from first quarter of 2005

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/real_estate/article/0,1299,DRMN_414_4578247,00.html

Rising interest rates, a glut of unsold homes on the market and falling home prices in some submarkets drove up Denver-area real estate foreclosures by more than 30 percent in the first quarter of this year compared with the first three months of 2005.
The 31.5 percent jump is the largest year-over-year percentage increase for a quarter in almost two years.

The jump to 4,764 foreclosures compared with 3,624 in the first three months of 2005 took some experts by surprise. Public trustee offices in Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas and Jefferson counties estimated the number of foreclosures they expect to open this month.

"That is disturbing," said economist Patty Silverstein of the soaring number of foreclosures.

"We still expected to see increases in 2006, but this is larger than what I would have expected. At this point in our economic recovery, we would have expected to have seen a smaller increase in foreclosures," said Silverstein, principal of Development Research Partners. :rofl: BWAHAHAHAHA!!!!

more...

[54anickel]

67. Investors helped to fuel housing boom

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2002913821_homeinvestors06.html

U.S. home sales would have been little changed last year had it not been for investors, who were lured by price increases that soared as much as 49 percent in some regions of the country.

As sales of new and existing houses rose 4.6 percent to 8.36 million, investment purchases represented 28 percent of the total, up from 25 percent in 2004, according to data released Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors in Washington, D.C. Excluding investments, sales rose 0.9 percent to 5.99 million.

Investors seeking alternatives to stocks helped fuel the housing boom by competing for property and bidding up prices, prompting former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan to warn of "froth" in the real-estate market. Rates for the adjustable loans favored by investors climbed about 1 percentage point as the Fed raised its benchmark rate eight times last year.

"The bulk of the decline in home sales this year will come from investors leaving the housing market," said David Berson, chief economist of mortgage buyer Fannie Mae. "If home price gains have peaked, as we expect, and financing is more expensive, investors are going to find someplace else to put their money."

Home sales probably will decline 8.9 percent to 7.61 million this year, Berson, 51, said. The average rate for a 30-year mortgage that adjusts annually likely will increase to 5.44 percent from 4.48 percent last year, he said.

I'm thinking Berson is gonna eat them words...

[ozymandius]

9. Merck Ordered to Pay $4.5 Million in Vioxx Trial

A New Jersey state court jury has awarded $4.5 million in a lawsuit filed by men who had suffered heart attacks while taking Vioxx, made by Merck & Co. The trial involved two plaintiffs, John McDarby, 77, and Thomas Cona, 60.

In its split decision, the jury said Vioxx was responsible only for McDarby's heart attack, not Cona's. Cona said he had taken the drug for 22 months, but he could only produce prescriptions that proved seven months of use. He said he used samples the rest of the time.

The award of $4.5 million to McDarby is for compensatory damages. On Thursday, the jury will decide whether Merck should face punitive damages as well.

more...

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5326537

[ozymandius]

23. Merck's Uncertain Future

It's still too early to give a prognosis for Merck, but it is still having some worrisome symptoms a year and a half after it pulled the pain pill Vioxx.

A split verdict in New Jersey state court yesterday gives only a few hazy clues to the future of the he Whitehouse Station, N.J., drug giant. One plaintiff was given a settlement of $4.5 million, with punitive damages yet to be decided. Merck (nyse: MRK - news - people ) won in the second case because Vioxx was deemed not to have been a deciding factor in the other plaintiff's heart attack.

Merck faces more than 9,000 lawsuits related to the withdrawn painkiller, and the number is constantly rising. Vioxx, once one of Merck's biggest drugs with peak sales of $2.5 billion, was pulled from the market in 2004 after a Merck-funded study linked it with an increased risk of heart attack and stroke; the link became statistically significant after a year-and-a-half.

-cut-

Merck itself has acknowledged that long-term exposure to Vioxx can pose a cardiovascular risk. The big question that investors are trying to divine from the trial is how many of the thousands of cases it faces Merck will eventually lose or settle. Drug giants like Pfizer (nyse: PFE - news - people ) and Eli Lilly (nyse: LLY - news - people ) have set aside hundreds of millions to cover drug liability claims with little long-term damage. The worry is that there will be a mega-award.

more...

[54anickel]

35. Well, the opening chart doesn't look too good - pretty high volume

at the open - lots of sell orders. Wonder how long before bargain hunters show up - hours, days, weeks, months, years?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MRK&t=1d

[ozymandius]

10. Ford CEO dismisses bankruptcy as option

DETROIT — Ford Motor CEO Bill Ford said yesterday that bankruptcy isn't an option for the nation's No. 2 automaker.

Speaking to reporters before being recognized as the Automobile Industry Action Group Executive of the Year, he said the auto industry is in a "precarious" spot. He added, however, that the company, controlled by the Ford family, remains profitable globally even as it carries out the turnaround plan.

"We've got just one big problem, and it's the U.S. auto business, and we're going to fix that," Ford said during his speech accepting the award. "And when we fix that, this discussion will disappear," he added, referring to questions about the company's ability to survive.

Globally, Ford posted a net profit of $2 billion. Though down from $3.5 billion in 2004, Ford's performance last year was a portrait of health in comparison to the $10.6 billion loss posted by larger rival General Motors.

more...

[ozymandius]

11. Hurricanes push Lloyd's into red

Lloyd's of London insurance market made a loss last year on the back of large claims from the most severe hurricane season on record.

Pre-tax loss for the year to December was £103m compared to a profit of £1.4bn in 2004. Net claims last year were £3.3bn.

Lloyd's chairman Lord Levene said: "2005 was the worst year on record for natural disasters, costing the insurance industry far more than the impact of the 9/11 attacks on New York.

"For Lloyd's to emerge from such a year with just a small loss represents an excellent performance by the market."

more...

[ozymandius]

12. Skilling to Testify in Rare Attempt to Win a Fraud Acquittal

April 6 (Bloomberg) -- Enron Corp.'s former Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Skilling is scheduled to take the stand today in an atypical move to refute prosecution evidence that he and past chairman Kenneth Lay defrauded investors.

Skilling will be followed by Lay during the defense's four- week case in federal court in Houston.

Testifying in one's own defense is chancy, because it shifts the jury's mindset from the prosecution's evidence to the defendant's personalities, lawyers following the case said. The outcome of the trial could depend not just on what the two men say about how Enron collapsed. It also hinges on how they say it.

more...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a8LroT.7N65w&refer=us

[54anickel]

49. Critics push to ease parts of accounting reform law

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/3774335.html

Critics of the Sarbanes-Oxley law to tighten U.S. accounting rules are taking their case to Congress, beginning a push to ease parts of the legislation enacted after the collapse of Enron and WorldCom.

Republican Representatives Tom Feeney of Florida and Mark Kirk of Illinois and Democrat Gregory Meeks of New York will tell a House Government Reform subcommittee that the law has driven up company compliance costs, threatening small businesses in particular. The lawmakers have conducted a three-month "listening tour," talking to chief executive officers, entrepreneurs and investors.

"At this point, there is an increasing recognition that the application of Sarbanes-Oxley has created some unexpected and unintended problems," Feeney said in an interview.

The hearing is the first in Congress that focuses on revising the law, which was named for its chief sponsors and was passed in 2002 with almost no opposition after Enron's bankruptcy and other scandals. Opponents claim the law has stifled innovation by putting burdensome regulations on companies.

more...

[54anickel]

50. Restatements Deliver Fuel for Reform

Two restatements supply fodder for the case against providing Sarbox 404 regulatory breaks for diminuitive companies.

http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/6768054/c_6771225?f=home_todayinfinance

Providing support for arguments against regulatory breaks for small caps, Richardson Electronics and Hemispherx Biopharma announced restatements stemming from accounting errors and saw their share prices dive.

Securities and Exchange Commission chairman Christopher Cox said earlier this week that small companies shouldn't necessarily expect a pass on complying with Section 404 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, which dictates stiff rules for assessing internal controls. Former SEC chairs Arthur Levitt, Richard Breeden, and Lynn Turner have already expressed their opposition to such exemptions.

On Wednesday, Richardson Electronics reported that it would recast its results for the three years ending in May 2005 as well as for the first two quarters of the current fiscal year. The $112 million market-cap electronics distributor made the announcement after it discovered errors in financial accounting at one of its Italian subsidiaries. Investors sliced off about a quarter of the company's market capitalization when shares began trading.

Investors in Hemispherx were a tad kinder: its share price decreased 10 percent for the day it announced its restatement after dropping nearly 14 percent at one time. On Monday, the $166 million market cap biopharmaceutical company admitted that an incorrect accounting principle was applied to certain debentures and warrants issued between March 2003 and August 2005.

[54anickel]

15. Japan should worry bond market more than China

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

snip>

Yet based on an analysis of Japanese investors' net purchases and sales of foreign bonds, it seems that we should probably be paying more attention to what that other large Asian nation is up to if we are really worried about where long term U.S. rates are headed.

Over the past five years, whenever we have seen a sharp decline in the 13-week cumulative total of Japanese net investment in medium and long-term foreign bonds, as reported by Japan's Ministry of Finance, it has been accompanied by a parallel rise in the 5-year U.S. treasury bond yield (among others).

Since December 30th, we have seen such a move, with a cumulative measure of net investment falling by 8.39 trillion yen, or more than $70 billion dollars. That suggests we could be due for even more of a slide in bond prices than we have seen already.

[54anickel]

36. Rising Sinophobia in U.S.

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/editorial/detail.asp?GRP=I&id=79701

Of late, there have been signs of rising Sinophobia in America. U.S. Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez warned Beijing this week that protectionist sentiments are mounting in the United States. He urged the mainland to further open up its markets and revalue the undervalued yuan. At the same time, President George W. Bush also asked Beijing to pursue trade reforms to deal with a gaping U.S. trade deficit. "We expect that country to treat us fairly," President Bush said Wednesday in Washington .

Mr. Gutierrez was more blunt. In a speech to the U.S. business community in Beijing, he warned of "a real protectionist sentiment" that was "creeping up" in America, in part due to the soaring U.S. trade deficit with mainland China. In 2005, the deficit reached a record high of US$202 billion.

The commerce secretary made the visit to Beijing on the heels of a high-profile trip by a congressional delegation led by Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), the lawmaker who had threatened to slam a 27.5 per cent tax on all Chinese imports if Beijing did not revalue the yuan significantly. After talking with Chinese officials, however, Schumer and his colleague Lindsey Graham decided to give Beijing a six-month reprieve before tabling the draconian Schumer-Graham bill to Congress.

So far, there are more than 20 anti-China bills awaiting approval by U.S. legislators. Angry Congressmen and trade unionists are blaming the undervalued yuan for the ballooning trade deficit and the loss of American jobs. They have become impatient about Beijing's slow and ineffective response to their demands. They are threatening to take actions that could trigger a trade war.

more...

[TrogL]

87. Now is not a good time for the US to piss off China

Considering how much US paper China holds right now.

[54anickel]

90. I gotta feeling both China and Japan know they are stuck with a bunch

of fish wrap. They seem to be biding their time, trading fish wrap with anyone willing to trade for something a bit more tangible until the US self-destructs.

[54anickel]

16. Seven Trends Spell A U.S. Financial Crisis

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/04-04-2006/0004332868&EDATE=

NEW YORK, April 4 /PRNewswire/ -- "Right now we face some powerful
negative forces that could lead to a dollar panic, a stock market crash, or a
banking crisis," said Investment U (http://www.investmentu.com) Chairman
Mark Skousen in a lecture recently at Columbia University.

"The basis of my remark," says Skousen, "is a warning issued by none other
than former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker. A year ago he warned that 'The U.S. is
skating on increasingly thin ice... The circumstances seem to me as dangerous
and intractable as any I can remember, and I can remember a lot.'"

Whether that thin ice breaks, cracks or holds, says Skousen, depends on
seven trends that are driving the U.S. economy. "It's a medley of economic
woes," he says, that include:

-- An overreacting Fed, switching from "easy money" to "tight money." The
Fed has been a major source of instability in the financial system. For
example, Greenspan was chairman for 19 years, and switched policies seven
times! The Fed often overshot its target on both ends - raising interest
rates too high in 1989, 1994, and now, and pushing them too low in 1992
and 2003.

more...

[AnneD]

56. Interesting.....

someone that has figured out Meanspins REAL legacy....

[54anickel]

17. 3-Gold powers to 25-yr high on dollar, silver soars

http://investor.ninemsn.com.au/investor/news/commodities/story_detail.asp?index=17576

LONDON, April 6 (Reuters) - Gold advanced on Thursday to a new 25-year peak within a whisker of $600 an ounce and silver touched its highest in more than 22 years, powered by active buying after a weaker dollar and firm oil prices.

Investors and fund operators were eager to push gold to new highs and awaited a European Central Bank meeting later in the day and U.S. payroll data, due for release on Friday, for their impact on the dollar.

"Clearly the dollar weakness is a big factor, not just for gold but for the other metals as well," said Stephen Briggs, economist at SG Corporate and Investment Banking.

"The amount of money that's still flowing into commodities, and metals in particular, just shows no let up."

Spot gold (XAU=) rose as high as $595.50 an ounce and was at $595.20/596.10 an ounce by 0934 GMT, up from $587.40/588.30 in late New York on Wednesday.

more...

[54anickel]

18. ANALYSIS-Heavy on metal, funds return with gusto

http://today.reuters.com/business/newsarticle.aspx?type=tnBusinessNews&storyID=nTP244766

TAIPEI/SINGAPORE, April 6 (Reuters) - Seemingly turning their backs on oil, the world's powerful investment funds that comb the planet for big returns are placing bold new bets on metals.

Enamoured both by the glitter of gold and the more workmanlike copper, funds are expected to drive the two metals to peaks that could be key psychological turning points for markets.

Gold looks unstoppable in its march to $600 an ounce -- the highest in more than a quarter of a century -- while copper is rippling through record after record towards $6,000 a tonne.

Some analysts say that since the start of the metals boom at the end of 2003, gains by commodities such as copper have lagged those in oil, but the recent steeper rises reflect the inflow of new fund money that will support higher gains in base metals.

"The story played out first in oil, but it's the same story about underlying strong demand growth and finite capacity for supply side to react," said Michael Coleman, managing director of the Singapore-based hedge fund, Aisling Analytics.


On edit: Oh my, tie this into the article in post 16 ---> http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/04-04-2006/0004332868&EDATE=

snip>

"It's easy to get carried away with disaster scenarios," says Skousen.
"Don't ignore the fact that the stock market is currently at a four-year high.
The single indicator I use to monitor global instability is the price of gold.
If it spikes upward, we're in trouble."

[UpInArms]

21. Gold hits $600 an ounce

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BD7721A27%2DEC61%2D401F%2D8F0B%2D6AAA1B7F3493%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures powered higher early Thursday, setting a fresh 25-year high at $600 an ounce, pulling other metals to multiyear levels and helping copper to a new all-time high.

"Gold is exploding and silver isn't far behind," said Kevin Kerr, trader and editor of Global Resources Trader, a newsletter published by MarketWatch, the publisher of this report.

Gold for June delivery rose to $600 an ounce in official trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange, having earlier hit a high of $601.90 in electronic trade.
Silver traded at a new 22-year high of $12.01 an ounce, after peaking at $12.08 in electronic trade.

The metal has rallied sharply in recent weeks as excitement has built about the pending launch of a silver exchange-traded fund, that's expected to boost physical demand for the metal.

Copper was last up 2.20 cents to $2.618 a pound, after trading at a new record of $2.621 in official trade and $2.64 a pound in electronic trade.

Platinum rose $17.40 to $1,098 an ounce and palladium was up $13.35 at $356 an ounce.

...more...

[54anickel]

27. Mornin' UIA. So what do you make of the rush into gold by the hedge

funds? They smellin' sumptin nasty in the air?

[UpInArms]

29. I think that those funds are realizing that they are late to the party

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B01EF8E64%2D33BE%2D44EE%2D9145%2D33EEC63136C8%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- You know who you are.
We haven't heard from you lately, at least not the way we used to. That was back in the day, only four or five years ago, when gold prices were languishing between $250 an ounce and $300 an ounce, having gone nowhere but down for 20 years.

You were a gold bear. Nay, a mega-gold bear; telling anyone who would listen that gold was a dead metal, an outdated investment with no real reason to still exist in the global financial system. After two decades of poor performance, you had written gold off.

Well, look at you now. Gold is about to pass $600 an ounce for the first time since January, 1981. Investors who believed -- and there were plenty of them -- have doubled their money. Buyers of silver, platinum and copper have also prospered. See full story.

And oil? Forget about it. Remember those who said there was really no reason that oil would ever be above $20 a barrel again? That was back in the late 90s when it was around $15 a barrel. Now it's pushing $70.

The list goes on and on; Internet stocks, high-yield bonds, emerging markets, the Boston Red Sox. All of these were asset classes that fell so far out of favor at some point that some analysts or investors -- or sports fans -- would write them off entirely. But each of these dogs would have their day, and that's a lesson for investors.

...more...

:hi:

[UpInArms]

38. This is the highest since January 1981

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B9214F31A%2D3455%2D4EC3%2DB26E%2DEB25C226FD41%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- June gold climbed as high as $600 an ounce in morning trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after touching a high of $601.90 overnight. Futures prices haven't traded at these levels since Jan. 1981. The June contract was last up $5 at $597.50 an ounce. May silver also climbed to a 22-year high of $12.01 an ounce and was last at $11.94, up 23.5 cents. "Going forward, inflationary concerns will only gain steam, the U.S. dollar will continue its downward decline and geopolitical tensions will continue to draw safe-haven buying from around the globe," said Emanuel Balarie, senior market strategist at Wisdom Financial.

[UpInArms]

33. June Gold @ $598 oz - May Silver @ $11.955 oz - May Copper @ $2.623 lb

9:48 AM ET 4/6/06 JUNE GOLD CLIMBS $5.50 TO $598/OZ AFTER 25-YR HIGH OF $600

9:48 AM ET 4/6/06 MAY SILVER UP 25C AT $11.955/OZ AFTER 22-YR HIGH OF $12.01

9:48 AM ET 4/6/06 MAY COPPER UP 2.7C AT $2.623/LB AFTER A RECORD $2.626

[UpInArms]

61. June Gold @ $599.60 oz - May Silver @ $12.005 oz - May Copper @ $2.647 lb

1:07 PM ET 4/6/06 JUNE GOLD UP $7.10 TO $599.60/OZ IN LAST HALF HR OF TRADE

1:07 PM ET 4/6/06 MAY SILVER CLIMBS 30C, OR 2.6%, TO $12.005/OZ

1:07 PM ET 4/6/06 MAY COPPER AT ALL-TIME HIGH OF $2.647/LB, UP 5.1C

[UpInArms]

65. Gold's hit $600. Now what?

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B55621F78%2D5E02%2D4773%2D8E7C%2D7A07CE297D2F%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw&print=true&dist=printTop

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold's reached $600 an ounce for the first time since 1981 but the real surprise will be where it goes from here, with experts predicting a near-term downtrend that could clear the way for four-digit prices in the next few years.

"Gold at $600 an ounce might be a surprise to many, but these are the same people that were surprised when gold hit $300, when it broke $400 and when it moved to over $500," said Emanuel Balarie, a senior market strategist at Wisdom Financial.

"Most likely, they will still be surprised when gold hits $1,000 an ounce," which could come in the next three to four years, if not sooner, he said.

Gold futures for May delivery climbed as high as $601.90 overnight in New York, and peaked at $600 in the regular session.

...more...

[54anickel]

76. The peak is expected to be 15 years away?!?! That's a helluva long

time!

[UpInArms]

69. May Gold closes @ $599.70 oz

1:43 PM ET 4/6/06 GOLD FUTURES CLOSE AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL IN OVER 25 YEARS

1:43 PM ET 4/6/06 MAY GOLD UP $7.20 TO CLOSE AT $599.70/OZ AFTER A $600 HIGH

1:43 PM ET 4/6/06 MAY COPPER ENDS AT A RECORD $2.6465/LB, UP 5.05C, OR 2%

[UpInArms]

79. May Silver closed @ $12.045 oz

1:52 PM ET 4/6/06 SILVER FUTURES END ATOP $12/OZ FOR 1ST TIME IN OVER 22 YEARS

1:52 PM ET 4/6/06 MAY SILVER UP 3%, ENDS AT $12.045/OZ AFTER $12.055 HIGH

[54anickel]

82. Feeling happy I hoarded some of that back when it was cheap too!

Hope I'll never need it, but still nice to know it's there should the matta really hit the fan. Got that Burl Ives X-mas tune going now...Silver and Gold

[UpInArms]

84. Are gold prices signaling inflation?

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B4A9C2D91%2DC1A9%2D4E18%2D9BBF%2D704D049F2D97%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The 38% surge in gold prices in the past eight months is a sure sign that the Federal Reserve has let inflation get out of control, some economists and strategists say.

But others argue that gold bears little relation to consumer prices, and that the surge in gold prices nothing to worry about, certainly compared with the jump in oil prices.

The two camps have divergent views about what causes inflation. On one side are those who argue that central banks have created too much money that isn't backed by something solid, like gold.

Rising commodity prices, including the price of gold, are just a symptom of a world awash in worthless cash. See full story on gold prices.

In the other camp are the majority of Wall Street economists who subscribe, in some fashion, to the notion that inflation works mainly through labor markets, with rising wages leading to higher prices which then lead to higher wages in a never-ending spiral.

...more...

[54anickel]

86. Ahh yes, those Wall Street, ever-surprised eCONomists. I thought

that wage-price spiral theory was de-bunked long ago.

[ozymandius]

19. pre-open blather

08:57 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.5. Futures trade has held relatively steady over the past half hour; stocks are still poised to open lower. Today's economic calendar features just one item, which was recently released. Last week, Initial Claims were a slightly lower than expected 299,000. Analysts had forecasted 305,000. At the same time, the prior week's reading was revised upwards by 2,000 to 304,000. As expected, the data hasn't had a big impact on trade within either the stock or bond markets considering the March employment report will be released in about 24 hours. At this juncture, bonds are improving, yet the 10-year's yield (4.86%) remains at a 22-month high.

08:32 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.7. The stock market continues to head towards a lower start. Retailers remain in focus as traders continue to digest the incoming same-store sales data. At this point, there have been more companies to miss expectations than to beat them. Amongst the disappointments are ANF, AEOS, ANN, FDO, FD, GPS, HOTT, JCP, MW, PSUN, and PIR. There are several upside results, though. Some of them have come from CHS, COST, JWN, TGT, WTSLA, GYMB. With respect to GYMB, one of our recommended holdings, the company raised its Q1 and full-year guidance in conjunction with its 5% same-store sales gain.

[54anickel]

22. As the world turns, it's the US's turn to face a currency crisis

The article is broken up by blocks of "Subscribe Now" sections, but they are well delimited.

http://www.capuchinomics.com/news/index.php?option=content&task=view&id=231&Itemid=

In 1994, Mexico came within a hair's breadth of a complete financial meltdown. The Mexican crisis was replicated in 1997 in Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines and South Korea, then referred to as the "Asian tiger" economies because of their rapid growth. The Asian tiger economies, unlike Mexico, experienced meltdowns. Nearly all these economies saw their economies devastated, currencies devalued, asset price deflation and experienced sudden impoverishment for a wide swathe of their populations. In 1998, Russia experienced the same fate as the Asian tigers with one additional feature, sovereign debt default. In 2002, Argentina, following a familiar script experienced a crisis that catapulted it from an emerging first world nation to third world nation overnight and featured the now familiar actors of a collapsed economy: devalued currency, asset price deflation, sudden impoverishment and sovereign debt default.

It's an astonishing and tragic catalogue of failure. Only South Korea and to a lesser extent Mexico have recovered from the devastation of these crises. In physics, Newton's third law of motion states that "For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction." The financial variation goes "for every loser there's a winner." This set of global crises had many losers, mainly the populations of these countries that suffered sudden impoverishment and decline in living standards. The biggest beneficiary of these crises was and still is the US.

To understand how this occurred, one has to understand the political and economic backdrop to the crises we listed in the first paragraph. 1989 marked the biggest upheaval in post World War II human history as communism collapsed as an organizing principle for politics, economies and societies. The immediate aftermath of this collapse caused an immense void that the West and capitalist societies were wholly unprepared to fill. Few had anticipated the fall of communism and fewer still had prepared to rebuild the shattered societies and economies of the ex-communist countries. The void was filled by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund that universally advocated a neo-classicist capitalist model irrespective of the initial conditions existent in these economies. To ensure compliance to their recommendations, financial aid and economic assistance was doled out based on the country's adherence to this model. The goal of the IMF was to remake these countries into capitalist economies and societies instantaneously.

big snip>

What lies in store next for the global financial system? In 1989, the dollar began its road back to preeminence. This preeminence had been lost after Nixon took it off the gold standard in 1971. Thirty years later (since the Dollar peaked in 2001), the dollar came full circle, traveling from global currency villain in 1971 to hero and savior status through the various crises listed in the first paragraph. By our reckoning, the dollar is headed for another stint as global villain. Ahead then is a period of resolution of imbalances caused by the events described above. Will these imbalance be resolved by a series of small, incremental and painless adjustments? Or are we about to see a wholesale rearrangement of the dollar oriented global financial system? Sharp moves in financial markets are suggesting that some investors have made their decision and have begun to act.


On edit: There are several interesting "Free" Articles listed here: http://www.capuchinomics.com/news/
The one on carry trades from 3/12/06 is rather worrisome.

[UpInArms]

24. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

Last trade 88.71 Change +0.01 (+0.01%)

US Dollar Gives Up Ground

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx-reports/daily-technicals/7832-us-dollar-gives-up.html

EUR/USD – The most heavily traded pair in fx saw limited follow through after taking off for 120 pips the previous day. The possibility of a pullback remains in play as EUR/USD trades at its upper Bollinger band on the daily and shows negative divergence with oscillators on the hourly. Contra moves could meet buyers at the recent breakout former resistance / 3/17 high at 1.2207 with a break giving way to 38.2% (1.1950-1.2304) fibo support at 1.2171. The confluence of the 10 day SMA / 50% fibo of the recent bull move from 1.1950 generates possible interest at 1.2127/32. A continuation of strength contends with the 1.2323/40 zone, defined by the 1/25 high / 38.2% fibo of 1.3479-1.1635. Additional gains would set sights on the psychological 1.2400.

<snip>

USD/JPY – USD/JPY spent some time trading below 117.00 yesterday, faking out traders looking for a break to the downside, before returning back above the figure and completing a bullish hammer candlestick on the daily. Expectations for a breakout abound as price approaches the apex of its symmetrical triangle on the daily chart. Yesterday’s 116.67 low / the 61.8% fibo of 115.48-118.79 at 116.75 are viewed as a support zone with a break exposing the 76.4% fibo / 3/27 reaction low of 116.27. Bids may stall close to the imposing 118.00 figure as the 61.8% fibo of 118.79-116.68 rests at 117.98. A break would target the upper end of the symmetrical triangle that began back in December 2005 near Monday’s high of 118.79. A break above opens the door for a rally towards the 3/10 high of 119.13.

...more...

[54anickel]

78. We'll Pump You Up! (Today's Pfenning)

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=646

snip>

OK... Tell me what you think of this story... Here's the headline...
"China ripe for 'muscular enforcement,' USTR says."... What? I tell you when I read that, the only thing I could think of was that old Saturday Night Live skit, with Hans and Franz... "We're going to pump you up" (you have to say that in your best "Arnold" voice)... HAHAHAHA! This whole story is totally preposterous! OK, first of all the USTR is the Assistant U.S. Trade Representative, Timothy Stratford. And he was mouthing off about how the U.S. needs to get "muscular" with China over their currency policy...

Hey, Timothy, Timothy, Timothy... Have you looked at the amount of U.S. Treasuries the Chinese hold? I think not! But don't let that get in the way of you "pumping up!"

And last night? Last night, Chinese Premier Wen hinted that China might change the makeup of its foreign exchange reserves... How's that for an answer to Timothy? I just love this trading punches between the U.S. and China... The thing the U.S. needs to be aware of, though, is that China can deliver a knock-out punch at any time!

snip>

OK... Another preposterous statement yesterday by U.S. Treasury Sec. John Snow, who by the way, is rumored to want out of his job... Here's the news headline.... SNOW SAYS JOBS DATA ON FRIDAY "WILL BE GOOD NUMBERS" What? How does he know this? Does he have a pre-release copy of the report? This is not an ethical thing for him to do... Either he has a copy of the report and is talking about it, which he shouldn't do... Or, he's talking about something that he knows nothing about, which he shouldn't do! Strange...

That brings me to tomorrow's Job Jamboree for March... The consensus forecast is for 190K jobs to be added, with no change to the Average Hourly Earnings or Weekly Hours... I wouldn't think that a report that came out like that would lead to dollar strength, because there are no wage pressures there... But we'll have to wait and see, eh?

more...

[ozymandius]

25. out of the gate and down it goes

9:30
Dow 11,233.05 -6.50 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,359.75 0.00 (0.00%)
S&P 500 1,311.56 0.00 (0.00%)
10-Yr Bond 48.68 +0.29 (+0.60%)
NYSE Volume 2,392,114,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,859,938,000

[UpInArms]

28. Treasury prices losses mount after weekly jobless claims

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B4EDD0F6E%2D9282%2D4A93%2D8F8E%2DF9AE5857FB7E%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Treasury price losses intensified early Thursday, sending yields higher, after the latest weekly jobless claims report showed a 5,000 drop in weekly jobless claims to 299,000, the lowest result since Feb. 18. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note last was down 9/32 at 97 with a yield ($TNX 48.74, +0.35, +0.7% ) of 4.885%, up from 4.878% before the data. The drop in claims could signal that the eagerly-awaited nonfarm employment report for March, which will be released Friday, will prove strong. The Treasury market this week is also being pressured by heavy corporate issuance which is prompting traders to manuvere to lock in Treasury rates at specific levels.

[54anickel]

77. Treasuries fall as market bets on strong US jobs

http://today.reuters.com/business/newsarticle.aspx?type=tnBusinessNews&storyID=nN06379270&imageid=&cap=

NEW YORK, April 6 (Reuters) - Treasury debt prices fell on Thursday as bond investors braced for a March U.S. jobs report

on Friday that some expected to be strong and feed inflationary concerns in the market.

Prices for long maturities, which respond more closely to inflation expectations, fell sharply against a backdrop of strong global economic growth and heightening inflation expectations, analysts said.

Richard Gilhooly, fixed income market strategist with BNP Paribas Securities Corp. in New York said he expected to see more steepening of the yield curve, with long-dated yields rising more sharply than those of shorter maturities.

"The long end is leading it," Gilhooly said. "What you are getting is a combination of factors: the payroll number is expected to be strong tomorrow, and TIPS (Treasury inflation protected securities) yields are pushing higher, with break-even inflation expectations widening, along with a much stronger global growth outlook," Gilhooly said.

more...


Snow was hinting all over the media yesterday that the report would be "good". Didn't that article from Tues say something about the annual March adjustment?

http://www.nypost.com/business/66403.htm

snip>

Don't get me wrong. There isn't really a boom in the job market, although Washington politicians would like you think there is.

What is happening is much simpler (and, in a way, more sinister): starting with the March number to be released Friday, the government starts making optimistic assumptions about hiring spurts caused by new companies coming into existence.

Each spring the Labor Department adds hundreds of thousands of jobs on the theory - never proven - that new companies suddenly pop into existence when the weather gets nicer.

Last March, for instance, the federal government added 179,000 of these phantom jobs to its monthly count.

And there's every reason to believe it will add as many - if not more - this year.

What this does is boost the actual number of new jobs reported. And it throws off any economist who is making his prediction based on, say, jobless claims or the gross domestic product.

[UpInArms]

30. Derivative traders see March US payrolls at 188,000

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-06T122811Z_01_N06300733_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-PAYROLLS-DERIVATIVES.XML

NEW YORK, April 6 (Reuters) - Traders in the second of four derivatives auctions on Thursday bet U.S. nonfarm payrolls data will show a seasonally adjusted gain of 188,000 jobs in March, a tad below above economists' expectations.

The latest auction's median expectation was also below the figure from the first auction, held on Wednesday, when traders bet on an payroll increase of 190,100.

Economists' median forecast in a Reuters poll last week was for a 190,000-job increase in nonfarm payrolls following a 243,000 increase in February.

The U.S. Labor Department will issue the February jobs report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. (1230 GMT).

Among possible outcomes, a payroll gain between 125,000 and 225,000 drew the most bets, with traders putting a 39.0 percent probability of a result in that range.

...more...

[UpInArms]

31. Collins & Aikman to exit auto fabrics business - 1,200 jobs

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-06T122600Z_01_WEN4140_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-COLLINS-URGENT.XML

CHICAGO, April 6 (Reuters) - Bankrupt auto interiors supplier Collins & Aikman Corp. (CKCRQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research) on Thursday said it will exit the automotive fabrics business, subject to approval by a bankruptcy court.

The action will affect three plants in Roxboro, North Carolina, as well as plants in Farmville, North Carolina, and El Paso, Texas, that will continue to operate as the business is shifted to other suppliers. The exit will impact about 1,200 employees.

During the process, Collins & Aikman said it will continue to evaluate the potential sale of certain portions of the fabrics business.

[UpInArms]

32. US's SnowJob renews call for growth, fiscal austerity as he demands more $

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-06T133923Z_01_N06257187_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-TREASURY-SNOW.XML

WASHINGTON, April 6 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow renewed his call for stronger economic growth in tandem with fiscal austerity in testimony before a Senate appropriations panel on Thursday.

President George W. Bush is seeking $11.6 billion for the Treasury Department for the fiscal year that begins Oct. 1, slightly more than its 2006 request.

"The Treasury Department is committed to fiscal austerity and the most efficient and effective use of taxpayer dollars while at the same time boosting revenues through continued economic growth," Snow said in comments prepared for delivery.

[54anickel]

39. Interesting choice of wording there - austerity

austerity

n : the trait of great self-denial (especially refraining from worldly pleasures)

Severe and rigid economy: wartime austerity.

The quality of being austere.

austere

adj 1: severely simple; "a stark interior" 2: of a stern or strict bearing or demeanor; forbidding in aspect; "an austere expression"; "a stern face" 3: practicing great self-denial; "Be systematically ascetic...do...something for no other reason than that you would rather not do it"- William James; "a desert nomad's austere life"; "a spartan diet"; "a spartan existence"


So, is it time to drown non-defense gov't programs in the bath tub yet?

[54anickel]

40. Bush's Budget Cuts Target Support for Small Businesses He Touts

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=agjitj7LvXNQ&refer=top_world_news

April 6 (Bloomberg) -- Colorado entrepreneur Susan Brown has just the kind of success story that President George W. Bush likes to tout when he talks about the importance of small businesses to the U.S. economy.

Brown ``turned over every rock on the planet'' looking for money to finance the business she started in 1990 outside Denver to manufacture baby pillows. After several banks turned her down, she got $40,000 and business counseling through the Small Business Administration's Microloan program; her Boppy Co. now has $20 million in annual sales and 24 employees.

``Without the Microloan, there is absolutely no way I would be here,'' said Brown, 51.

Now Bush wants to eliminate the program, and cut similar ones, to help narrow a federal budget deficit projected at $423 billion this year. His proposals hit at a constituency that is his natural ally on many of his other initiatives, such as cutting health-care costs and pruning government regulations -- and is the source of 70 percent of new jobs created in the U.S.

more...

[UpInArms]

41. We don't need no stinkin' jobs - GWB - Outsourcing is Good!

and is the source of 70 percent of new jobs created in the U.S.

:mad:

[UpInArms]

34. Retail Sales are Down - blaming weather and calendar

What jokers!

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B8EBD6BD4%2DA27C%2D49BB%2D96C8%2D668739D04AD0%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Retailers staggered out of March with mostly below-par sales results, which were pressured by the seasonal shift of Easter and uncooperative spring weather.

With 50 of the nation's largest chain stores reporting Thursday, Thomson First Call said 58% turned in results that were short - and in many cases, well below - Wall Street's forecast.

"The Easter shift really exposed the soft underbelly of those retailers that have been struggling," said Todd Slater, analyst at Lazard Capital Markets.

Discounters and children's retailers provided the best results while teen retailers were hit hardest, owing to a combination of record-high comparisons a year ago and a fashion trend that's soft on embellishments.

<snip>

And here's a first: Federated warned that April sales would be a bit on the weak side because of "a late Mother's Day." Without mention of the potential Easter pickup in sales, Federated said it is looking at a same-store sales drop of 2.5% to 3% this month because it is shifting a major sales event into May.

...more...

:eyes:

[UpInArms]

46. Gap Inc. same-store sales tumble

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B0577C4EA%2D2347%2D4CEE%2D9BB1%2D908C1D168FE0%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gap Inc., operator of Gap, Old Navy and Banana Republic Stores, said Thursday that March same-store sales tumbled, and it forecast continued declines for the first half of the year.

Gap (GPS 18.53, -0.13, -0.7% ) , of San Francisco, saw its stock retreat as much as 2.3% to $18.24 soon after the markets opened.

In North America, Gap stores posted a 13% decline in same-store sales, while Banana Republic dropped 7%. Old Navy's same-store sales fell 15%. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call forecast declines, on average, of 7.3% at Gap, 7% at Banana Republic and 8.5% at Old Navy.

...more...

Could it have anything to do with this?

Save the Redwoods Boycott the Gap!*

You think it's time to WEAKEN local environmental laws? Uh-uh! San Franciscans, take note! The Forest Stewardship Council strikes again!


The Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) is lobbying the City of San Francisco to WEAKEN the City's ban on the use of wood from extremely endangered tropical forests. You won't believe the argument they're using - that, in order to NOT use arsenic-laced wood for pier pilings in San Francisco's ports, the City MUST use wood from virgin forests in the Amazon!

The Forest Stewardship Council are the folks who brought us bought-and-paid for "green" certification and private (as opposed to public, i.e., lawful) review of corporate logging plans - for the Mendocino Redwood Company (MRC), the investment of the Fisher family of the Gap clothing empire, which is clear-cutting and using pesticides in ancient redwood forests in Mendocino.

...more...

[UpInArms]

62. Gap says that it's going to get worse

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B0577C4EA%2D2347%2D4CEE%2D9BB1%2D908C1D168FE0%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

Though Simmons, like many of her competitors, was quick to note that March's results should be combined with April's for a clearer picture of spring- and Easter-shopping patterns, she warned that they won't be pretty.

"Overall sales results for March were below our expectations and merchandise margins were below last year," she said. "Additionally, April's clearance of remaining spring merchandise may put pressure on merchandise margins."

She reiterated what the company has said since the beginning of the year: "We anticipate that total comparable store sales will remain negative for the first half of this year."

[ozymandius]

54. How incredibly dumb!

Always the weather. That's a damn stretch - but not really because it's an evergreen excuse for being a Surprised Economist (SE). Whenever there's a tornado in Tennessee, teenwear sales in Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, Atlanta and everyplace else plummets. Yeah right.

[AnneD]

59. But,but,but......

the dog ate my economic report. So when did April sale become affected by Mother's day (on May 14th).:eyes: I guess it dosen't have anything to do with unemployment or stagnant wages....nah, that's too easy.

[Roland99]

64. Anyone have some Antivert? I'm a bit dizzy from that one.

Playing the blame game and pointing to Mother Nature.


:eyes:

[UpInArms]

66. here's a little something for that

[Roland99]

70. Thanks...I needed that!

[UpInArms]

37. Mills Corp. (REIT) fires 70 more while designating future CFO

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B60396C9D%2DAA13%2D40BE%2DA6F1%2D57680FC879FA%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Mills Corp. said it's restructuring its finance and accounting team to reduce costs as the embattled real-estate investment trust continues to explore "strategic alternatives," including a possible sale of the company.

The Arlington, Va.-based developer of retail destinations such as malls (MLS 27.30, -0.01, 0.0% ) said late Wednesday it's reducing its work force by about 70 people, bringing the force reduction made in the last 90 days to about 160.

Among those cuts was James Dausch, president of the company's development division, who is leaving effective May 2. He's expected to serve as a consultant on the company's Meadowlands Xanadu project in New Jersey.

Dausch will receive roughly $1 million in severance, but the terms of the consulting contract have not been finalized, the company said in a filing.

Mills said it expects to record charges related to the job reductions of approximately $3 million in the first quarter of 2006, all of which has been or will be paid in cash.

<snip>

Last month, Mills disclosed the Securities and Exchange Commission has commenced a formal investigation over accounting problems. See previous story.

...more...

[UpInArms]

43. 10:39 EST numbers and blather

Dow 11,199.61 -39.94 (-0.36%)
Nasdaq 2,353.19 -6.56 (-0.28%)
S&P 500 1,306.99 -4.57 (-0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 4.880 +0.41 (+0.85%)

NYSE Volume 562,181,000
Nasdaq Volume 536,081,000

10:30 am : Selling has increased and is especially affecting blue chips. Merck (MRK 34.40 -1.59) is the primary culprit behind the Dow's decline. At this point, that stock has dropped more than 4%, following the latest Vioxx verdict. A split jury found Merck's drug responsible for one of the two heart attacks involved in the trial, and awarded $4.5 million before punitive damages. More importantly, the decision paves the way for other plaintiffs, who were long-term Vioxx users, to press their cases against Merck. While Merck is the muscle behind the Dow's decline, it's not the only sore spot. Of the 30 constituents, only six are trending higher. 3M (MMM 80.60 +3.14) is the best source of support, following its upped Q1 guidance. Industrial peer Boing (BA 79.81 +0.70) has also lifted, due to news that it's won a $1 billion order from Spain's Air Europa. News from those two companies underpin the Overweight rating on the Industrial sector that we continue to hold. DJ30 -28.90 NASDAQ -4.45 SP500 -3.74 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1564/1090/475.5 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1699/1139/342.1 mln

10:00 am : The market remains modestly lower. The Energy sector is providing some support with its 0.7% gain, but that advance is offset by losses levied by seven other sectors. Telecom (-1.0%) is currently faring worst, but it's the Financial sector (-0.4%) that is weighing most heavily. Rate-sensitive areas of the market are facing selling, and they reflect traders' caution ahead of tomorrow's jobs data. The Treasury market, on the other hand, is improving. Yields are ticking lower, largely to the credit of a rally in the Euro zone. That factor is supportive for the stock market, and is helping to keep selling pressure in check. It will be interesting to see if the improvement persists as attention to the impending jobs data increases. DJ30 -10.81 NASDAQ -1.31 SP500 -1.71 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1416/1104/305.9 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1540/1139/212.0 mln

09:40 am : As futures trade had foreshadowed, the equity market started the session in the red. There are a few factors that are discouraging buyers. First, retailers' March same-store sales data has been relatively disappointing. Apparel retailers and specialty stores were amongst the worst faring, and many are attributing their weak showing to the calendar as Easter falls later this year than last. Discounters did relatively better, with Costco (COST) the brightest amongst them. Second, Merck (MRK) was found liable for a heart attack in its latest Vioxx suit. A split verdict awarded $4.5 million, before punitive damages, to one plaintiff; for the the other co-plaintiff involved, Vioxx was not blamed. Third, crude is again pushing $68 per barrel, and is in focus in light of reports that Iran could face U.N. sanctions after two security council warnings on nuclear activity. Depite these negatives, selling is contained at this point. There are also a few reasons for that. Treasury yields are improving, 3M (MMM) upped its guidance, Boing (BA) won a Spanish contract, and Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) delivered better than expected earnings, solid same-store sales, and raised its full-year forecast.DJ30 -9.85 NASDAQ -1.53 SP500 -1.94

[ozymandius]

47. Reminder: Yesterday's rally was meaningless.

10:58
Dow 11,205.54 -34.01 (-0.30%)
Nasdaq 2,356.07 -3.68 (-0.16%)
S&P 500 1,308.04 -3.52 (-0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 48.90 +0.51 (+1.05%)
NYSE Volume 670,938,000
Nasdaq Volume 647,055,000

[mike923]

48. As meaningless as today's fall.

[ozymandius]

52. lunchtime check-in with dizzy blather

12:06
Dow 11,188.96 -50.59 (-0.45%)
Nasdaq 2,351.86 -7.89 (-0.33%)
S&P 500 1,305.07 -6.49 (-0.49%)
10-Yr Bond 49.03 +0.64 (+1.32%)
NYSE Volume 1,019,824,000
Nasdaq Volume 990,095,000

11:30 am : The major averages have very slightly improved over the past half hour, but they remain comfortably below the flat line. Modest gains in the Technology (+0.1%) and Materials (+0.2%) sectors are lending a bit of support. With respect to the latter area, metal prices continue to surge, and that price action continues to drive buyers to related stocks. Nickel, up 5.5% on the day, is leading the pack. Gold, meanwhile, today hit $600 per troy ounce for the first time in 25 years. Aluminum, silver, and copper also continue to rise. Speaking of copper, Phelps Dodge (PD 88.51 +0.93), one of our stock picks, declared a special $2 per share dividend today. PD also raised its quarterly dividend to $0.20 per share from $0.1875. DJ30 +31.62 NASDAQ -2.24 SP500 -3.38 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1625/1186/833.1 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1804/1209/577.3 mln

[UpInArms]

57. 12:34 EST redder numbers and noon blather

Dow 11,174.63 -64.92 (-0.58%)
Nasdaq 2,349.18 -10.57 (-0.45%)
S&P 500 1,303.67 -7.89 (-0.60%)
10-Yr Bond 4.901 +0.62 (+1.28%)

NYSE Volume 1,157,848,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,101,843,000

12:00 pm : Buyers remain at bay as the second half of the session begins. There are several factors behind today's stand-offish stance. First, bond yields are again rising. Second, retailers' March same-store sales data was, overall, relatively disappointing. Third, Merck was found liable for a heart attack in its latest Vioxx suit. And last but not least, investors are exercising some caution ahead of tomorrow's much-anticipated employment data.

The Treasury market continues to occupy the equity market's spotlight. A rally in the Euro Zone had helped that market improve in the early going, but the U.S. bond market's recovery has run out of steam. The yield on the 10-year is lingering around 4.90%. That is a four-year high. Rate-sensitive areas of the market had been under pressure all morning, but with bonds' worsening has come exacerbated selling across the Financial sector. It's 0.5% loss is weighing heavily. Utilities (-1.6%) are also sinking, and homebuilders are not faring well. For the Discretionary sector (-0.2%), rising market rates underpin the bearish tone set by today's torrent of same-store sales reports.

A majority or reporting retailers missed expectations. Furthermore, several of them issued profit warnings, which are receiving increased attention as the first quarter earnings season approaches. Apparel retailers, especially teen retailers, and specialty stores delivered some of the most uninspiring results. Many blamed the calendar for Easter's later arrival this year. In light of Fed tightening concerns, the results nonetheless feed concerns over a slowdown in consumer spending. There were some exceptions, though. For example, Gymboree (GYMB 27.47 +1.25), which is one of our suggested holdings for active investors, checked in well ahead of expectations and raised its Q1 guidance in conjunction with its result. The overall batch came as somewhat less of a surprise today due to Wal-Mart's (WMT 46.51 -0.36) indication on Monday that it expected just a 1.3% gain. Wal-Mart, for its part, came in a tad higher than recently indicated. Discounters as a group have fared relatively better. Target (TGT 52.84 +0.66) performed slightly better, and Costco (COST 55.77 +0.63) announced strong results.

Merck (MRK 34.40 -1.59), at this point, is the primary drag on the Dow. A New Jersey jury handed down a split verdict in the latest Vioxx suit, by which one plaintiff (of two) was awarded $4.5 million before punitive damages. More significantly, the decision paves the way for other plaintiffs, who were long-term Vioxx users, to press their cases against the drug company. Accordingly, the Healthcare sector is weighing heavily on today's trade.

While sellers remain in control, there are a few sources of support that are helping to limit the market's decline. In the Dow, Merck's effect is somewhat offset by extended strength in Industrial components. Today, 3M (MMM 80.84 +3.38) upped its first quarter earnings and revenue forecast, and Boeing won a $1 billion order from Spain's Air Europa. Metals continue to surge, and related stocks are continuing to benefit. To that point, our portfolio pick Phelps Dodge (PD 87.61 +0.03) declared a $2 per share special dividend and raised its quarterly dividend this morning.DJ30 -56.17 NASDAQ -8.19 SP500 -7.03 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1647/1222/991.0 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1877/1195/702.1 mln

[ozymandius]

74. And now - everything's fine 'cepting treasuries

1:57
Dow 11,228.10 -11.45 (-0.10%)
Nasdaq 2,363.78 +4.03 (+0.17%)
S&P 500 1,310.12 -1.44 (-0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 48.95 +0.56 (+1.16%)
NYSE Volume 1,482,353,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,413,676,000

[UpInArms]

55. Bloomberg: Bush Approved Leak of Iraq Arms Intelligence, Libby Testified

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aTAo1LZSEZDA&refer=us

April 6 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush authorized disclosure of classified information on Iraq's weapons program to rebut war critics, a former top administration aide told a grand jury, according to documents filed in federal court.

The documents don't allege the president approved the identification of covert CIA operative Valerie Plame, although they were filed in connection with the investigation into who leaked the operative's name to reporters in 2003. The court filing by special prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald also doesn't suggest Bush violated any rule or law governing the handling of classified material.

The document described federal grand jury testimony by I. Lewis Libby, the former chief of staff to Vice President Dick Cheney, who was indicted last October of charges of perjury, obstruction of justice and lying to FBI investigators probing the Plame case.

In the filing, Fitzgerald describes Libby's testimony about disclosure to former New York Times reporter Judy Miller of a 2002 National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq's pursuit of nuclear materials.

``Defendant testified that the vice president later advised him that the president had authorized defendant to disclose the relevant portions of the NIE,'' Fitzgerald wrote.

...more...

[AnneD]

60. And the....

mata hits the fan with a dull thud....Duck and cover folks.

[UpInArms]

68. U.S. stocks fall on Merck ruling, news on Iraq leak

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-06T173533Z_01_N06193590_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-STOCKS-UPDATE-6.XML

NEW YORK, April 6 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Thursday, hurt by a drop in Merck & Co.'s (MRK.N: Quote, Profile, Research) shares after a legal setback, and news that court papers say President Bush authorized disclosure to the media of classified material about Iraq.

<snip>

Court papers filed by prosecutors in the Central Intelligence Agency leak case, made public on Thursday, said Vice President Dick Cheney told his onetime top aide Lewis "Scooter" Libby that President George W. Bush specifically authorized the aide to disclose intelligence information about Iraq to the media in 2003.

<snip>

"The news that Bush was aware of or maybe authorized the (intelligence) leak is what's causing the weakness in the market," said Tom Schrader, managing director of U.S. equity trading at Stifel Nicolaus Capital Markets.

"If this puts the Bush presidency in jeopardy, investors are certainly going to sell stocks because he's a Republican pro-business president," he added. "This could cause some political damage, which certainly limits his ability to get things done and definitely worries investors."

<snip>

"This (news about Bush) could certainly help hold down the market here," said John O'Brien, head of sales trading at KeyBanc Capital. "Any kind of uncertainty would add to reasons why people would want to take" profits by selling stocks after the recent rally to five-year highs.

...more...

[54anickel]

71. Of all the evil, corrupt, incompetent deeds Bushco has done since

usurping the WH and it's THIS that the market get concerned about? Or was this the final straw as they fear he's closer to impeachment?

[54anickel]

75. Today's pic....

[UpInArms]

89. Stocks flat as market mulls Iraq leak news

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsarticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyid=2006-04-06T185723Z_01_N04364431_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-STOCKS.xml

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Socks were flat on Thursday as traders had mixed views of news that court papers showed President Bush authorized a leak to the media of classified material about Iraq.

<snip>

Court papers filed by prosecutors in the Central Intelligence Agency leak case, made public on Thursday, said Vice President Dick Cheney told his onetime top aide Lewis "Scooter" Libby that President George W. Bush specifically authorized the aide to disclose intelligence information about Iraq to the media in 2003.

"The news that Bush was aware of or maybe authorized the (intelligence) leak is what's causing the weakness in the market," said Tom Schrader, managing director of U.S. equity trading at Stifel Nicolaus Capital Markets.

But some traders took comfort from the fact that the court documents did not seem to link the President directly to a leak of Valerie Plame's identity as a CIA agent.

"The market is reassured that Bush didn't do anything wrong," said Adam Tracy, director of listed trading at Thomas Weisel Partners.

...more...

Whew! I was so worried that the "market would not be so certain" about their Liar-In-Chief. You remember the one that said he would fire anyone connected with this leak.

[UpInArms]

91. George W. Bush on George W. Bush: guilty of a "shameful act"

http://www.martinirepublic.com/item/george-w-bush-on-george-w-bush-guilty-of-a-shameful-act/

“But it is a shameful act by somebody who has got secrets of the United States government and feels like they need to disclose them publicly. . . . We’re at war, and we must protect America’s secrets. “

– George W. Bush, December 19, 2005.

<snip>

Of course, when Bush told Libby to leak classified information, the leak involved misleading information intended to bolster public support for an uneccessary and disastrous foreign war which has cost the US more than 2400 lives, and upwards of a $1,000,000,000,0000.

Both circumstances involved leaking information to the press. The leak which Bush described as “shameful” turned out to be completely accurate information about Bush’s warrantless wiretapping in violation of the FISA law. After Bush gave repeated assurances to the American people that warrants were obtained for all such wiretaps. So I guess leaks are okay if they are intended to mislead the American people and lead the nation to disastrous interventions, but shameful if they reveal the President as a serial liar who routinely commits felonies.

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

72. 1:51 EST faeries reported in early - fingers in dike and ears

Dow 11,215.30 -24.25 (-0.22%)
Nasdaq 2,361.33 +1.58 (+0.07%)
S&P 500 1,308.64 -2.92 (-0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.893 +0.54 (+1.12%)

NYSE Volume 1,464,883,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,393,376,000

1:25 pm : Stock investors continue to take a trading cue from the Treasury market. Over the course of the session, sellers have dominated there. A rally in the Euro zone had led to some early recovery attempts, but Treasuries gave back ground as European trade closed. At this point, the benchmark 10-year note (-11/32) is yielding 4.89%. As we noted earlier, 4.90% marks a four-year high. Consistent with the recent trend, the back end of the curve is faring worst. The 30-year note, which is most sensitive to inflation, is down 27 ticks and up to a 4.96% yield. Traders remain on the defensive ahead of tomorrow's employment data. The report is closely watched, and is apt to garner increased attention in light of the uncertainty surrounding monetary policy. As the Fed has asserted, policy decisions will depend on the data. In looking at the March report, the market is apt to key in on the hourly earnings and unemployment rate components as they will either temper or raise concerns about wage-based inflation pressures.DJ30 -47.38 NASDAQ -3.27 SP500 -5.10 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1748/1175/1.29 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2109/1026/928.3 mln

[54anickel]

80. Nuttin to worry bout! 2:22 and almost all better now

Dow 11,237.24 -2.31 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,363.54 +3.79 (+0.16%)
S&P 500 1,310.68 -0.88 (-0.07%)
10-yr Bond 48.99 +0.60 (+1.24%)
30-yr Bond 49.69 +0.76 (+1.55%)
NYSE Volume 1,611,341,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,547,566,000

[UpInArms]

88. 3:39 EST and worries are encroaching again

Dow 11,207.85 -31.70 (-0.28%)
Nasdaq 2,357.81 -1.94 (-0.08%)
S&P 500 1,307.79 -3.77 (-0.29%)
10-Yr Bond 4.893 +0.54 (+1.12%)

NYSE Volume 1,995,781,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,924,122,000

3:30 pm : Little has changed as the closing bell approaches. The blue chip averages remain modestly lower, while the Nasdaq clings to a gain. The market continues to demonstrate some interesting resilience to rising yields and high energy prices. Crude, which closed a nickel below $68 per barrel, is trading at a two-month high. Heating oil and gasoline also rose today. Natural gas did not, following the Energy Department's report that showed a slightly less than expected drawdown in supply. As for Treasuries, the 10-year's yield continues to hover around a 4-year high.DJ30 -16.58 NASDAQ +0.84 SP500 -2.21 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1615/1378/1.85 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1952/1256/1.33 bln

3:00 pm : The indices attempts to gain have halted. With tomorrow's employment data looming, traders on both sides of the aisle appear to be taking to the sidelines. Here is a look at what economists are anticipating to see. As we've noted, the hourly earnings and unemployment rate components are apt to garner added attention tomorrow, in light of concerns over wage-based inflation pressures. Consensus estimates are pegged at +0.3% and 4.8%, respectively. In February, hourly earnings rose 0.3%, and the unemployment rate was 4.8%. With respect to the non-farm payrolls reading, the market expects 190,000. Last month, that series checked in at 243,000. The average workweek is the fourth piece of the report. The consensus estimate is 33.8 hours, versus 33.7 in the prior month. DJ30 -23.93 NASDAQ -0.48 SP500 -2.88 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1590/1380/1.72 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1911/1276/1.24 bln

[specimenfred1984]

81. The Faeries Were in Yesterday

with 2 suspicious looking 20k pumps in the mini S&P as it was a day when the Federal Reserve was speaking. That pumped the daily Nasdaq chart up over it's 62% retracememt level as well which, pulled back to that level today and has attracted buying there.

It looks like fund buying to me so far today, they probably assume the faked employment numbers will be satisfactorily faked tomorrow. They could always get scared and dump their positions by the close, they've already had a nice little 9 point runup in the S&P today.

[54anickel]

73. Rumble in the Jungle Over Oil

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-belizeoil5apr05,0,4846266.story?coll=la-home-headlines

SPANISH LOOKOUT, Belize — This tiny country struck oil in much the same way Jed Clampett stumbled on a gusher in the Ozarks.

A few years ago, a Mennonite farmer dug a shallow well in this bucolic hamlet and up bubbled crude.

"It was just like the Beverly Hillbillies," said government petroleum inspector Andre Cho, who advertised the incident to woo private investors.

The cast of characters linked to the find is as colorful as anything on television. They include speculators motivated by an Irish self-help guru, Mennonites who have hired an ex-con to extract a better deal for petroleum on their land and a seismic engineer with an unshakable belief that his impoverished nation was brimming with oil.

Belize joined the ranks of the world's oil exporters in January, when its first shipload of crude hit the market. Production is a mere 3,000 barrels a day, but some Belizeans are dreaming of a payday to rival that of the Clampetts'.

snip>

Across Belize, rumors abound of oilmen in Stetsons rushing to cash in. "When you see Texans coming down here, you know that something is up," ...

more...

[54anickel]

92. Bankrupt Nation

http://www.tompaine.com/articles/2006/04/04/bankrupt_nation.php

As the 2007 budget debate moves forward, the complete disregard of the precarious state of our government's finances is, unfortunately, more apparent than ever. The current year deficit is projected to top $400 billion for the second time in history—the first time being two years ago. According to the president's own projections, large and persistent deficits will remain part of the budget landscape for decades if current policies are continued.

The country's fiscal health has been deteriorating rapidly without a sound steward at the helm, and it seems nobody in Congress or the administration has the first clue about how to fix it. Worst of all, it appears most members of Congress have given up trying—preferring instead to invoke fiscal restraint as an excuse for cutting social service programs they have long wanted to do away with.

Politicians often make hay about "tough choices" and prioritizing in an environment of limited resources and this year will be no different. While budget restraints are real, the current crunch is an outgrowth of our leaders’ unwillingness to confront the harsh realities of our current budget morass. The reality is we simply do not have nearly enough revenues to meet the country's needs. Nothing will change until that is addressed.

Case in point is a letter sent last week to House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., from 23 moderate Republicans meekly demanding more funding for education, health care, housing and other key urban programs—certainly a worthwhile goal. Yet the letter asks for only a 2 percent increase—a level even the signers acknowledge will not be enough to cover inflation for the very services they supposedly want to maintain. What's worse: Despite their claims of fiscal responsibility, the letter makes no mention of the insufficient tax base and lack of revenue to pay for these vital services.

For their part, the GOP leadership is no better. Newly-crowned House Majority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio—more out of touch on fiscal issues that almost anyone in Washington, as recent statements reveal—is overseeing his first budget. Over the last few weeks, he has repeatedly claimed the 2007 budget will commit to fiscal discipline. He proposes including tight limits on the same discretionary spending moderates want to increase, and he wants to implement irrelevant and ineffective process changes.

more...

[Egnever]

93. Been watching this thread

On and off for the past year or so and I just wanted to say thanks! I am a complete neophyte when it comes to the markets but through this thread I feel that I am becoming better informed every day! So a huge thank you! to start off with.

Now with that out of the way I have some questions and observations if any of you are willing to take the time to address them.

First let me say that I recently cashed out of my home. I live in las vegas where the market went nutso in the last year or so as it seems to have in many places around the country. From reading this thread I saw what appeared to be the writing on the wall and took the money and ran.
I am now left with a decent chunk of cash that I am having trouble coming to grips with.

For a while I let it sit in a savings account because I really had no idea whatsoever how to approach investing it wisely and figured that at least I was gaining interest on it. However recently I went through the guy that handles my 401k at work to "invest" that cash into some mutual funds.

My goal at this stage is to make use of that cash to get a decent return over the next year or so while keeping an eye on the housing market before plunging back into another home. Currently I am renting as it seems an incredibly stupid time to buy.

It appears to me (mostly through reading here) as though the housing market is set for a big correction in the next year or two and I would like to be in a decent position after it does to reinvest in a new home when the timing appears right.

Now my issue at this point is after having made my initial funds purchases I have since taken some time to look at what I agreed to. I believed and still do strongly based on many articles pointed out here that the dollar is in serious trouble it also appears as though the banking system is just asking for a fall. What I am not sure of is where to position myself to "take advantage" of this.

In my initial funds purchases I split my cash almost evenly. I believed heavily in gold as it seems to me that if the dollar weakens gold can only rise so I put half into IGDCX or AIM Gold and precious metals. So far this portion is working out beautifully.

The other half I went with a fund that my broker suggested as I didn't want all my eggs in one basket. His suggestion was ABWCX ... This while not a loser has not been great either. So today
I took the time to take a closer look at this fund to see where its invested and I find that a sizable portion of it is invested in fanny mae! ouch exactly where I don't want to be.

When I was discussing this fund with my broker he lead me to believe that it was weighted toward foreign investment now it appears that is not the case at all. It does have some google which I think will continue to do well but other than that I don't see a lot of anything I trust in it.

Now my assumption at this point is that with our situation here at home looking so precarious it is a good idea to invest outside of the US. Is this an unreal assumption? Would a significant decline in the dollar actually hurt foreign investment as well?

I feel quite comfortable with gold at the moment as I feel it holds true value and is not as susceptible to faked or unrealistic gubmnet reports. But I am at a loss as to what to do with the other portion. Would it be stupid of me to sell off the ABWCX so soon after purchasing it to reinvest it in something else perhaps energy or health care or offshore my understanding is with a C class stock I take a 1% hit when I sell which doesn't really concern me much when based against a lackluster performance in a market that appears to me at least to be ripe for the picking somewhere.

I am also assuming that if there are going to be losers and it really appears to me we are on the verge of a bunch of losers there must be some winners. Other than Gold what goes up when real estate credit and other american interests take the huge hit they appear on the verge of taking?

If you made it this far thanks for taking the time and any advise or direction you could share with this complete newb would be greatly appreciated!

[UpInArms]

97. Hi Egnever!

Thanks for coming in to the SMW! And we are so glad that anything that we post or say has been of value to you and yours. :D

That being said, we, here at the SMW, are not able to give you advice on how or where to invest your money.

We can offer suggestions to places that we feel have validity (but those are only opinions and you just can't bank on them for accuracy).

My favorite place to look for decent corporations is at www.karmabanque.com - but hopefully others here at the SMW will give you theirs!

:hi:

[Egnever]

101. Thanks again!

I totally understand not offering advice. I will continue to read and see what I can cipher.

Thank you for the Website suggestion I will give it a look and see what more I can learn there.

[AnneD]

98. Wecome...

Egnever:hi: You might have noticed that we don't post specific advice per say, but we can share general info.
Here are my......

Rules to Invest
1. Paranoia can be a good thing...remember, it is your money and everyone is out to part you from your money. Not all mugging take place at gunpoint.
2. Everyone is a salesman. Some are sharks in suits, some are sirens on the rocks. Do your homework. If you don't clearly understand it, or if it seems to easy, proceed with caution.
3. The only folks that get rich overnight were born into wealth.
4. Mutual funds are a crapshoot. Look at their track record over at least 20 years before even THINKING about parting with your cash.
5. Learn about Roths and other vehicles. Seek out a good advisor and pay them well. The free ones are sales agents, see rule 2.
6. Balance is good. Keep some in safe investments (lower yield), and some in varing risks depending on you age and tolerance to risk.
7. Don't forget the insurance. There are some risks you don't want to take, don't get cheap then lose it because you didn't have the right coverage (long term nursing home ins etc). It is another way of protecting your assets.



I love this thread too. Every day I grow in my knowledge and I feel more confidence navigating through the choppy waters.

[Egnever]

102. Good advice!

I will continue to lurk here day in and day out and see if I cant make heads or tails of where i think we are headed and where I should be when we get there!

Thanks for the input!

[ozymandius]

99. Hi and ((thank you)) for all your kind comments.

As UpInArms says - we avoid giving any advice on how to invest your money. But we can offer some sound practices that can direct you toward a smart course. I know from personal experience that navigating investment waters is very difficult. You really need to find a certified financial planner with whom you can build a personal relationship - as in taking your financial advisor out to lunch a couple of times per year. That's a great place to start after you do some homework. There are some websites that can offer some helpful and conscientious methods of investing if that is your mindset. You might try googling "social equity funds". You will be buried with information on companies that promise to invest your funds with a clean conscience and a decent return.

I wish this note could be more specific - as daunting as this project is.

I wish you the best.

Ozy :hi:

[Egnever]

103. My homework is set out!

Thank you for the suggestions it appears I have some reading to do!

Of course I will continue reading here also.

[54anickel]

94. America's pensions in peril — or gone

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/cgi-bin/PrintStory.pl?document_id=2002908865&zsection_id=2002119995&slug=pension04&date=20060404

After flying Army helicopters in Vietnam and then piloting United Airlines jets for more than two decades, John Balkenhol of Marysville was looking forward to retiring to his Montana vacation spread.

But when bankrupt United transferred its huge pension obligations to the federal government last summer, his maximum benefit was nearly halved. Now the 60-year-old Balkenhol is on the road looking for work.

"I was thinking of maybe flying fire bombers," the planes that drop water or retardant on forest fires, he said. "It's not easy to find a job flying, at this age."

It's hardly the retirement Balkenhol had hoped for. Like hundreds of thousands of workers and retirees across the country, he's getting a crash course on America's faltering pension system.

He's learned that a company like United can drop its pensions in the government's lap when they get too expensive. That pension benefits he'd been promised years ago can be cut. That the government's pension insurer is itself facing a huge deficit.

more...

[54anickel]

95. The Art of War for the anti-war movement

http://www.alternet.org/bloggers/ritter/34332/

snip>

Lately I have noticed a growing despondency among many of those who call themselves the anti-war movement. With the United States now entering its fourth year of illegal war in and illegitimate occupation of Iraq, and the pro-war movement moving inexorably towards yet another disastrous conflict with Iran, there is an increasing awareness that the cause of the anti-war movement, no matter how noble and worthy, is in fact a losing cause as currently executed. Despite all of the well-meaning and patriotic work of the millions of activists and citizens who comprise the anti-war movement, America still remains very much a nation not only engaged in waging and planning wars of aggression, but has also become a nation which increasingly identifies itself through its military and the wars it fights. This is a sad manifestation of the fact that the American people seem to be addicted to war and violence, rather than the ideals of human rights, individual liberty, and freedom and justice for all that should define our nation.

In short, the anti-war movement has come face to face with the reality that in the ongoing war of ideologies that is being waged in America today, their cause is not just losing, but is in fact on the verge of complete collapse. Many in the anti-war movement would take exception to such a characterization of the situation, given the fact that there seems to be a growing change in the mood among Americans against the ongoing war in Iraq. But one only has to scratch at the surface of this public discontent to realize how shallow and superficial it is. Americans aren't against the war in Iraq because it is wrong; they are against it because we are losing.

Take the example of Congressman Jack Murtha. A vocal supporter of President Bush's decision to invade Iraq, last fall Mr. Murtha went public with his dramatic change of position, suddenly rejecting the war as un-winnable, and demanding the immediate withdrawal of American troops from Iraq. While laudable, I have serious problems with Jack Murtha's thought process here. At what point did the American invasion of Iraq become a bad war? When we suffered 2,000 dead? After two years of fruitless struggle? Once we spent $100 billion?

While vocalizing his current opposition against the Iraq War, Congressman Murtha and others who voted for the war but now question its merits have never retracted their original pro-war stance. Nor have they criticized their role in abrogating the Constitutional processes for bringing our country into conflict when they voted for a war before the President had publicly committed to going to war (we now know the President had committed to the invasion of Iraq by the summer of 2002, and that all his representations to the American people and Congress about 'war as a matter of last resort' and 'seeking a diplomatic solution' were bold face lies). The Iraq War was wrong the moment we started bombing Iraq. Getting rid of Saddam Hussein is no excuse, and does not pardon America's collective sin of brooking and tolerating an illegal war of aggression.

much more...

[54anickel]

96. Whoa, I hope the Euro and Loonie charts are just some technical

glitch.

[ozymandius]

100. at the close

Dow 11,216.50 -23.05 (-0.21%)
Nasdaq 2,361.17 +1.42 (+0.06%)
S&P 500 1,309.04 -2.52 (-0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 48.93 +0.54 (+1.12%)
NYSE Volume 2,281,615,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,195,858,000

4:20 pm : Equity trade was somewhat choppy today. A variety of catalysts put sellers in control from the early going. Despite unfavorable macro conditions on multiple fronts, the market staged an afternoon recovery. The effort was short-lived, though.

The Treasury market reassumed its defensive stance. Yields across the curve headed higher, and the benchmark 10-year note again touched a four-year high of 4.90%. The bond market's action reflected traders' vigilance ahead of tomorrow's carefully watched employment data. In light of the persisting uncertainty within the interest rate environment, the report will garner that much more attention. It is our view that the hourly earnings and unemployment rate components will be focal points considering the concerns over wage-based inflation pressures.

As has been the case lately, the stock market initially took its trading cue from the bond market. Mid-afternoon, though, it diverged. The 10-year's yield did not budge from 4.89%, yet buyers helped the equity market pare its losses. Due to an improvement in banks and continued strength in brokers, the Financial sector (-0.3%) halved its loss. That move helped lift the lid on the major averages, but it did not support their attempt to rise.

Commodities extended their advances today; that price action helped lift the Energy and Materials sectors, which in turn helped the broader market improve. Gold hit $600 per troy ounce for the first time in 25 years, aluminum and silver each gained another 3%, and nickel and copper rose substantially. Speaking of copper, Phelps Dodge (PD 86.70 -0.88), which is one of our recommended holdings, received some attention today. The company declared a $2 per share special dividend, and it also increased its quarterly dividend. PD did not lend any upside, perhaps because of the fact that it's gained 30% since its split in Mid-March, but the Materials sector led trade with its 0.4% gain. On the energy side of the commodity aisle, crude traded at a two-month high and served as another bearish factor for the market. While that advance had resulted in some leadership from the Energy sector, it wasn't all that spirited and it didn't last.

Today's torrent of same-store sales reports contributed to the market's bearish bias. A majority of reporting retailers missed expectations. Furthermore, several of them issued profit warnings, which are receiving increased attention ahead of the first quarter earnings season's launch on Monday. Apparel retailers and specialty stores delivered some of the most uninspiring results. In light of Fed tightening concerns, the results added to concerns over a slowdown in consumer spending. Many retailers blamed the calendar for Easter's later arrival this year, though. There were some bright reports that helped offset the disappointments. For example, Gymboree (GYMB 27.96 +1.74), which is another one of our suggested holdings for active investors, checked in well ahead of expectations and raised its Q1 guidance in conjunction with its result. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY 40.82 +2.50) also delivered solid sales results, not to mention better than expected earnings results. Separately, the market's reaction to the data was tempered by the fact that Wal-Mart earlier in the week said it expected just a 1.3% gain.

Merck (MRK 34.84 -1.15) was another primary factor behind today's action. A New Jersey jury handed down a split verdict in the latest Vioxx suit, by which one plaintiff (of two) was awarded $4.5 million before punitive damages. More significantly, the decision paves the way for other plaintiffs, who were long-term Vioxx users, to press their cases against the drug company. Accordingly, the Healthcare sector weighed heavily on trade and Merck dragged the Dow. Helping to offset its effect were some Industrial components. Specifically, 3M (MMM 81.38 +3.92) raised its guidance and Boeing (BA 79.82 +0.71) won a $1 billion contract from a Spanish airline.

After several attempts, the Nasdaq managed to clear the flat line. A modest gain in the Tech sector (+0.1%), largely to the credit of extended strength in hardware and semiconductor equipment, was behind the Composite's gain.DJ30 -23.05 NASDAQ +1.42 SP500 -2.52 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1552/1459/2.19 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1862/1376/1.57 bln