STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 7 April

[ozymandius]

Friday April 7, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 1018 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1933 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1633 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1594
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 6, 2006

Dow... 11,216.50 -23.05 (-0.21%)
Nasdaq... 2,361.17 +1.42 (+0.06%)
S&P 500... 1,309.04 -2.52 (-0.19%)
Gold future... 599.70 +7.20 (+1.20%)
30-Year Bond 4.96% +0.07 (+1.37%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.89% +0.05 (+1.12%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[jamesinca]

1. Good morning all and Ozy

great cartoon as usual.

[ozymandius]

4. Thanks!

:thumbsup:

[AnneD]

48. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: I have a very busy day and will not be able to do more than pop in a tad later. I am looking forward to those bogus jobs numbers. The feds will probably raise the rates based on bogus employment numbers, further causing damage to an already fragile economy. Sweet huh. Hope they give all the credit to Bush:sarcasm:
Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[ClintonTyree]

2. Wow....

that's the first time I've seen the price of gold lately! I sold a bunch when it hit $500 thinking it would never go higher than that. Boy, was I wrong! People looking for shelter from the storm, huh?

[ozymandius]

5. Apparently

Sec. Snowjob's hopeful tune about the future of the dollar falls on deaf ears these days.

[ozymandius]

3. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

Today's Market

The HUI broke into new high ground and as I write this, the spot price of gold is north of $595, and silver is over $12.11 an ounce. This is Wave 3 behavior as I discussed here before. Corrections against the main trend have been relatively short and shallow. The crowd is hopping on board, and baffling those practicing “contrarianism.” It's times like these that you don’t want to try to out guess a bull market. You have your position. You are playing with the house money. Just leave it at that. Ride out the inevitable corrections. It’s a bull market.

If you want to be a contrarian, then this may be a chart to interest you. The 3-year daily chart of the 7- to 10-year Treasury Bond Fund (IEF) shows a massive topping multiple head and shoulders pattern. More than a few analysts, myself included, have sounded the warning that this is signaling the next bear market in bonds. Yet something in the very short term is making me think that there may be a rally in store for the bond market.

-see chart-

The recent rally action in the Homebuilders has pretty much defied the poor fundamental data. The stock market has failed to drop for even 2 straight days in the face of inflation (evidenced by the precious metals market), and an apparent new bear market in bonds. So in summary, stocks and gold are not confirming the new bear market in bonds. What gold may be telling us is that interest rates will drop, thereby devaluing the dollar, and increasing the price of gold (in devalued dollars), and increasing the price of stocks which will be worth more devalued dollars. None of this short term action makes sense now; but it would all make sense if the bond market rallies.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

6. Today's Reports-a-plenty

8:30 AM Average Workweek Mar
Briefing Forecast 33.8
Market Expects 33.8
Prior 33.7

8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Mar
Briefing Forecast 0.3%
Market Expects 0.3%
Prior 0.3%

8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Mar
Briefing Forecast 190K
Market Expects 190K
Prior 243K

8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Mar
Briefing Forecast 4.7%
Market Expects 4.8%
Prior 4.8%

10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Feb
Briefing Forecast 0.5%
Market Expects 0.5%
Prior 0.1%

3:00 PM Consumer Credit Feb
Briefing Forecast $2.5B
Market Expects $3.0B
Prior $3.9B

[UpInArms]

26. 8:30 Reports tumbling in:

8:30 AM ET 4/7/06 U.S. MARCH LABOR PARTICIPATION RATE STEADY AT 66.1%

8:30 AM ET 4/7/06 U.S. AVERAGE HOURLY WAGES UP 3.4% IN PAST YEAR

8:30 AM ET 4/7/06 U.S. MARCH MANUFACTURING JOBS FALL 5,000

8:30 AM ET 4/7/06 U.S. JAN., FEB PAYROLLS REVISED DOWN 34,000

8:30 AM ET 4/7/06 U.S. MARCH AVERAGE WORKWEEK 33.8 HOURS AS EXPECTED

8:30 AM ET 4/7/06 U.S. MARCH AVERAGE HOURLY WAGES UP 0.2% VS. 0.3% EXPECTED

8:30 AM ET 4/7/06 U.S. MARCH JOBLESS RATE 4.7% VS. 4.8% EXPECTED

8:30 AM ET 4/7/06 U.S. MARCH NONFARM PAYROLLS UP 211,000 VS. 187,000 ESTIMATED

[UpInArms]

27. U.S. March payrolls rise 211,000; wages up 0.2%

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B43D4D6B8%2DE670%2D4E3C%2DB39F%2D2BA943B03D76%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Wage raises were slim in March, despite robust hiring and a decline in the jobless rate to match a five-year low, the Labor Department reported Friday. U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by a better-than-expected 211,000 in March while the jobless rate fell back to 4.7% from 4.8%. Wage growth was tame, rising 0.2% for the month. Average hourly wages are up 3.4% in the past year, down from 3.5% last month. The average workweek was steady at 33.8 hours. Total hours worked in the economy increased 0.2%. The labor force participation rate was steady at 66.1%.

Must have had one hell of a birth/death rate exchange :eyes:

[rfranklin]

31. I am puzzled about why the futures are going up on this news....

The jobs created were 24,000 over the estimate. Annually that would be about what? 260,000 jobs...So what's to get excited about? Oh year, and they are lower paying jobs than the Clinton era jobs they replace.

[UpInArms]

33. markets excited because there's no "inflation" - well that means there's

no WAGE INFLATION - the only inflation that the Fed is concerned about - so that means that the Fed will not increase rates - or so the market reads this - stocks will rise and the dollar will fall - because the dollar cannot sustain itself without more interest rate hikes - but you see, that hidden inflationary signal is not going to be talked about.

When your dollar is worth less to other countries, it takes more dollars to purchase the imports - mostly oil, and now a bit of our food, as we have become a net food importer under this mal-administration's policies. So, you see why they take "food and energy" from the formula for "inflation".

[JNelson6563]

37. What's a little lie between billionaires?

After all, it helps pad profits so it's ok, right? :puke:

[UpInArms]

74. 10:00 Feb Wholesale Inventories up 0.8% (above concensus)

10:00 AM ET 4/7/06 U.S. FEB. WHOLESALE AUTO INVENTORIES UP 1.8%

10:00 AM ET 4/7/06 U.S. WHOLESALE INVENTORY-SALES RATIO 1.17 VS. 1.16

10:00 AM ET 4/7/06 U.S. FEB. WHOLESALE SALES FLAT

10:00 AM ET 4/7/06 U.S. FEB. WHOLESALE INVENTORIES UP 0.8%

[UpInArms]

76. U.S. Feb. wholesale inventories rise 0.8%

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B5249DB4F%2D3E0C%2D4294%2D9BBD%2DE42F771F9CCA%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Inventories at U.S. wholesalers increased by 0.8% in February, while sales were flat, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. The inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.17 from a record low 1.16 in January. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting a 0.5% rise in inventories in February. January's inventory gain was revised to 0.2% from 0.1% earlier.

[UpInArms]

138. U.S. Feb. consumer credit rises $3.26 bln, or 1.8%

3:00 PM ET 4/7/06 U.S. FEB. NONREVOLVING CREDIT RISES $2.45 BLN, OR 2.2%

3:00 PM ET 4/7/06 U.S. FEB. REVOLVING CREDIT RISES $802 MLN, OR 1.2%

3:00 PM ET 4/7/06 U.S. JAN. CONSUMER CREDIT REVISED UP 3.4% VS. 2.2%

3:00 PM ET 4/7/06 U.S. FEB. CONSUMER CREDIT RISES $3.26 BLN, OR 1.8%

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B7EE745C5%2D0068%2D460B%2DAF58%2D72D1685621E9%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumers took on an extra $3.26 billion in debt in February, pushing total outstanding consumer credit up by 1.8% to $2.163 trillion, the Federal Reserve reported Friday. Revolving debt such as that on credit cards increased by $802 million in February, or an annualized 1.2%. Nonrevolving debt like automobile loans rose by $2.45 billion, or 2.2% annualized. Analysts surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting consumer credit to rise by $3.4 billion.

[ozymandius]

7. Crude Oil Prices Fall on Profit Taking

SINGAPORE - Crude oil futures fell Friday as traders took profits after the contract briefly topped $68 a barrel in the previous session for the first time in more than two months.

-cut-

"What the market has found is that the $68-level has a rather strong resistance, and so the contract is now retreating slightly on profit taking," said energy analyst Victor Shum of Purvin & Gertz in Singapore.

The head of the International Energy Agency said Friday that he saw no need to release government-held strategic oil stocks, despite high prices.

"There's no lack of supply for the time being," said Claude Mandil, who leads the oil security watchdog for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. "If there's any disruption" in oil flows "due to political problems, we will consider using the stocks."

more...

[UpInArms]

12. US conducting criminal probe of BP: WSJ

http://www.metronews.ca/reuters_business.asp?id=142248

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. environmental regulators are conducting a criminal investigation into BP Plc's management of pipelines in Alaska's North Slope, the Wall Street Journal said on Thursday.

Citing people familiar with the matter, the newspaper said the investigation, which has been under way for several months by officials at the Environmental Protection Agency, was expanded to include an early March spill of an estimated 134,000 to 267,000 gallons of crude from a BP-operated pipeline at Prudhoe Bay.

One person familiar with the matter was reported as telling the newspaper that federal investigators are looking at corrosion issues on the ruptured line, as well as others in the area, to determine if BP has committed any violations of the federal Clean Water Act.

The act carries criminal and civil penalties for violations, such as allowing oil to spill into a federal waterway.

EPA administrator Stephen Johnson on Thursday declined to confirm or comment on the matter.

...more...

[54anickel]

22. The EPA? The Clean Water Act? Surely you jest. Weren't those

pretty well neutered by this mal-admin long ago? Pay a fine and carry-on. Bidness as usual.

[wordpix]

107. oh yeah, this oughta be interesting, foxes guarding henhouse

[UpInArms]

83. May Crude @ $67.25 bbl - May NatGas @ $6.83 mln btus

10:18 AM ET 4/7/06 MAY CRUDE FALLS 69C TO $67.25/BRL IN EARLY NY TRADING

10:18 AM ET 4/7/06 MAY NATURAL GAS FALLS 14.2C, OR 2%, TO $6.83/MLN BTUS

[UpInArms]

106. May Crude @ $66.70 bbl - May NatGas @ $6.735 mln btus

11:57 AM ET 4/7/06 MAY CRUDE DROPS $1.24, OR 1.8%, TO $66.70/BRL IN NY

11:57 AM ET 4/7/06 MAY NATURAL GAS LOSES 3.4% TO 1-MONTH LOW OF $6.735/MLN BTU

[UpInArms]

139. May Crude closes @ $67.39 bbl - May NatGas @ $6.743 mln btus

3:03 PM ET 4/7/06 MAY CRUDE FALLS 55C TO CLOSE AT $67.39/BRL IN NY

3:03 PM ET 4/7/06 MAY CRUDE ENDS THE WEEK WITH A 1.1% GAIN

3:03 PM ET 4/7/06 MAY NATURAL GAS DROPS 3.3% TO CLOSE AT $6.743/MLN BTUS

3:03 PM ET 4/7/06 MAY NATURAL GAS DOWN 6.5% FROM THE WEEK-AGO CLOSE

[ozymandius]

8. Regulators Monitoring Risky Mortgages

WASHINGTON - Federal regulators are paying close attention to increasingly popular high-risk mortgages and the credit risks they pose for banks, the government's top thrift regulator said Thursday.

The remarks by John Reich, director of the Office of Thrift Supervision, were in line with expressions of concern by several bank regulators in recent months over the popularity of so-called interest-only or pay-option adjustable-rate mortgages.

Consumers increasingly have been using them to buy homes they otherwise could not afford. And banks and thrifts have been turning to them to maintain their loan volume and profits in a competitive market, sometimes lowering standards for extending credit, Reich said.

more...

[54anickel]

75. Regulators To Issue Mortgage Warning

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/06/AR2006040602088.html

snip>

Reich called the increase in such lending troubling. He noted that regulators are crafting a specific warning to the industry, known as a guidance, that will restrict the use of these loans. It could be issued within the next few months.

But a regulatory crackdown on the loans, known as interest-only and option mortgages, could prove problematic for some pricey real estate markets, such as the Washington area, where buyers have become increasingly dependent on such loans.

About two-thirds of all people who bought homes in the Washington area in 2005 used interest-only or option mortgages, many of which have adjustable interest rates, up from 2.2 percent in 2000, according to statistics compiled by LoanPerformance, a real estate information firm. These loans generally have lower monthly payments than traditional fixed-rate loans, at least at the start, but carry the risk that payments could jump steeply.

Local mortgage brokers say borrowers are taking out these loans because it is the only way they can afford to buy a home today. These loans allow borrowers to pay just the interest on the debt, not to pay down the principal, which reduces the monthly expense at the beginning of the loan term.

"These types of products have been enablers when it comes to allowing home prices to rise," said Christopher Cruise, a Silver Spring-based mortgage trainer who runs classes for lenders and regulators around the country. "Without these products, homes couldn't be purchased. If they are taken off the market, it could precipitate a disaster of epic proportions."

more...

[UpInArms]

78. That could be describing an addiction

where buyers have become increasingly dependent

[54anickel]

85. The Menace of an Unchecked Housing Bubble

http://www.cepr.net/columns/baker/2006_03_30.htm

snip>

The best evidence that fundamentals are not the cause of the run-up in housing prices is the fact that there has been no comparable increase in rental prices. While rental prices did rise somewhat more rapidly than the overall rate of inflation during the first part of the house price run-up (see Figure 1), in the last couple of years they have been falling behind inflation. If the run-up in home sale prices was being driven by fundamentals in the supply and demand for housing, then there should be substantial price increases in both the rental and ownership markets. The fact that only the ownership market shows an unusual run-up in prices strongly supports the view that this price increase is being driven by speculation rather than fundamentals.

The Bubble Will Break Eventually

If housing prices are a speculative bubble, then eventually, prices will return to normal levels reflecting the value of housing services. The country has been building houses at a near record pace for the last few years, and this pace will continue as long as prices remain near their bubble peaks. At the moment, this oversupply has been absorbed by speculators and by a record vacancy rate in the rental market, but eventually excess supply will put downward pressure on sale prices (part of this story is the conversion of rental property to ownership units), which will cause speculative demand to evaporate.

Just as the supply of shares of worthless Internet companies eventually outstripped demand, the supply of housing will eventually place enough downward pressure on housing prices that the bubble levels will prove unsustainable. How fast this happens depends on how quickly mortgage interest rates rise from what are still extraordinarily low levels.

The adjustment process will not be pretty. Residential construction accounts for more than 6 percent of GDP, and construction drops off tremendously during times of recession. For example, in the mid-seventies construction dropped almost 40 percent, and in the early eighties it fell by almost 30 percent. Given the unprecedented burst of construction over the last five years, downturns of this magnitude are certainly plausible. In addition, with a correction in housing prices, the loss of bubble wealth will lead to a sharp decline in consumption. If the full $5 trillion in bubble wealth were to disappear, the implied drop in consumption would be $250 billion annually, or 2 percent of GDP.

snip>

The Fed has taken the view that bubbles come and go and that this is not their business —a view that seems difficult to justify given the enormous consequences from the growth and collapse of financial bubbles. These consequences certainly seem much larger than the impact of modest upticks in the inflation rate, which has been the Fed’s driving concern over the last two decades.

The decision to ignore financial bubbles also seems inconsistent with the Fed’s past decisions, where it has made the stability of the financial system a central concern. This was its justification in stemming the 1987 stock crash and more recently when it intervened in the unraveling of the Long-Term Capital hedge fund. Since the Fed recognizes the need to act to preserve the stability of the financial system, there seems little justification for sitting on the sideline when financial bubbles that pose enormous threats dominate the economy. It is unfortunate that it might require the collapse of the housing bubble, and the enormous damage it will entail, to finally prompt some new thinking on this issue among the nation’s policymakers.

Hmmm, yes the Fed (since Greenspin) certainly shows a record of stepping in only when the "oligarchy" money is at risk :freak:

more...

[UpInArms]

86. that writer is an optimist!

prompt some new thinking on this issue among the nation’s policymakers

In order to do that, we need to throw all of the stupid supply-siders out!

[54anickel]

93. Dreamer, silly little dreamer. Can you put your hands in your head - Oh No

[UpInArms]

96. Today's tune courtesy of Supertramp

Dreamer, you know you are a dreamer
Well can you put your hands in your head, oh no!
I said dreamer, you're nothing but a dreamer
Well can you put your hands in your head, oh no!
I said "Far out, - What a day, a year, a laugh it is!"
You know, - Well you know you had it comin' to you,
Now there's not a lot I can do

Dreamer, you stupid little dreamer;
So now you put your head in your hands, oh no!
I said "Far out, - What a day, a year, a laugh it is!"
You know, - Well you know you had it comin' to you,
Now there's not a lot I can do.

Well work it out someday

If I could see something
You can see anything you want boy
If I could be someone-
You can be anyone, celebrate boy.
If I could do something-
Well you can do something,
If I could do anything-
Well can you do something out of this world?

Take a dream on a Sunday
Take a life, take a holiday
Take a lie, take a dreamer
dream, dream, dream, dream, dream along...

Dreamer, you know you are a dreamer
Well can you put your hands in your head, oh no!
I said dreamer, you're nothing but a dreamer
Well can you put your hands in your head, oh no!
OH NO!

[ozymandius]

9. UPDATE 4-Gold touches high near $600, eyes key data

LONDON, April 7 (Reuters) - Gold moved closer to $600 an ounce after hitting a fresh 25-year high on Friday, with funds and investors intent on lifting the metal to new peaks on bullish sentiment, analysts said.

"We will probably have another look higher again later today. It's just a matter of time before we breach $600," said James Moore, analyst at TheBullionDesk.com.

He said growing investor interest following instability in the dollar, inflation worries, tension in the Middle East and speculation that central banks would diversify into metals had been boosting gold's allure.

more...

[UpInArms]

21. Gold falls as investors lock in gains - after June Gold high of $603.10 oz

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B119ED76F%2D77E3%2D4BF8%2D81F8%2D18303F5B93D1%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw&print=true&dist=printTop

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures fell early Friday, as investors locked in gains across the metals market after breaking through key psychological levels the day earlier.

Gold for June delivery was last trading down $2 at $597.70 an ounce, after an overnight high of $603.10. On Thursday, the contract broke through $600 an ounce for the first time in 25 years before finishing just shy of that level.

Other metals, notably silver and copper, were pulled higher with it with traders and analysts citing strong demand for the metal from investment funds, seeking better returns than are now being seen in other asset classes, like stocks and bonds.

Gold has gained more than 40% in the last 12-months on inflation concerns, expectations of dollar weakness once the Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates and worry about some of the world's trouble spots such as Iraq, and more recently, Iran and its confrontation with the United Nations over its nuclear research activities.

...more...

[54anickel]

29. Ya know, I'm having a hard time swallowing this "investment funds"

line (then again - they are run by so-called "Wall St eCONomists"). I believe they are talking hedge funds and would they really be this late to the party? Look at how early they showed up in oil and what they did to it. Perhaps they figure they've taken oil as far as it can go for now, short of some disaster or war anyway.

Is this some sort of cover for future gold manipulation now that most producers (short of Barricks) have wiped out their hedge books? :shrug: Either way, I don't like it - nope, na-uh, not one bit. Damned hedge funds create a lot of volatility, seem to ruin everything they touch --- then again maybe I'll finally get that blue-light special. :evilgrin:

Don't really know what to make of it other than "sumptin's up".

[UpInArms]

67. June Gold @ $595.30 oz - May Silver @ $12.09 oz - May Copper @ $2.628 lb

9:51 AM ET 4/7/06 JUNE GOLD FALLS $4.40 TO $595.30/OZ AFTER $592 LOW

9:51 AM ET 4/7/06 MAY SILVER UP 4.5C TO $12.09/OZ AFTER $12.195 HIGH

9:51 AM ET 4/7/06 MAY COPPER FALLS 1.85C TO $2.628/LB

[54anickel]

91. $600 gold: Want in? Think twice

Gold's meteoric rise over the past five years has enriched precious metals investors -- should individual investors follow suit?

http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/06/pf/gold_investing/index.htm

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - There was a time when investors didn't want gold's gleam anywhere near their portfolios, but it's long forgotten now.

As gold futures surged past the $600 an ounce barrier Thursday (full story), it was easy for investors to forget that in 1999 gold was stuck around an anemic $250 an ounce.

But with oil shortages and inflation fears making headlines again, the commodity has staged a full-blown return to glory, earning outlandish returns for precious metals investors. Nymex gold futures are now up 38 percent over the past year, and a scorching 126 percent over the past five. Stock markets, eat your heart out.

Now individuals want in -- should you follow suit?

more...

[UpInArms]

103. June Gold @ $594.30 oz - May Silver @ $12.13 oz

11:43 AM ET 4/7/06 JUNE GOLD DOWN $5.40, OR 0.9%, AT $594.30/OZ IN NY

11:43 AM ET 4/7/06 MAY SILVER CLIMBS 8.5C TO $12.13/OZ AFTER A LOW OF $11.94

[Jose Diablo]

122. The gold silver ratio is interesting

Currently at 48.78 as reported at Kitco. This ratio as of just a few weeks back was in the mid 50's. The silver increase lately has been far more dramatic than gold.

Historically, the ratio is a keen indicator of variations between the supply/demand ratio's of each individual commodities. Before Europe 'discovered' the new world this ratio was typically 15:1 and went as high as 153:1 in 1939. With adjusted prices of around $800/oz to the current $12/oz. Also I think a case could be made the ratio is an indicator of one or the other commodity is being manipulated in price either through government decree or the supply/demand side is being constricted/expanded.

Look at 600 Years of silver prices for an interesting chart.

These Silver EFT's should increase demand, but something else is going on with silver. Could the supply be decreasing also? Or maybe an unidentifed new demand need is surfacing.

[AnneD]

158. More info about silver than you ever want to know....

unless your last name is Hunt...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver

It is used in medicines, electronics, and mixed with alloys.....but if I had to bet, I'd say silver is going up because it is useful in killing vampires and werewolves. All these DEMS are stocking up in preparation for the mid-terms:evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

123. June Gold closes @ $592.70 oz - May Copper @ $2.6405 lb

1:43 PM ET 4/7/06 JUNE GOLD FALLS $7, OR 1.2%, TO CLOSE AT $592.70/OZ

1:43 PM ET 4/7/06 JUNE GOLD ENDS THE WEEK WITH A $6/OZ, OR 1%, GAIN

1:38 PM ET 4/7/06 MAY COPPER ENDS AT $2.6405/LB, DOWN 0.6C FOR THE SESSION

1:38 PM ET 4/7/06 MAY COPPER FINISHES THE WEEK 7.2% HIGHER

[ozymandius]

10. GLOBAL MARKETS-Bonds struggle, stocks up ahead of U.S. job data

LONDON, April 7 (Reuters) - Government bonds held near recent lows and stocks rose on Friday ahead of a key U.S. jobs report which is expected to confirm the economy remains on a solid footing, increasing pressure for more interest rate rises.

Booming prices for commodities were also seen underpinning arguments for tighter monetary policy as copper hit a record near $6,000 a tonne, gold climbed to a 25-year high near $600 an ounce and oil stayed above $67 a barrel.

The U.S. non-farm payrolls report for March was top of the agenda and forecast to show employers added 190,000 jobs last month, pointing to solid growth and a tightening labour market.

"Yesterday's weekly jobless claims came in lower than expected so this is building expectations for a good number today and whilst there's no real belief that last month's 243,000 will be matched, anything over 200,000 may ignite inflationary concerns in the U.S. once again," said Matt Buckland, a trader at financial spread-betting firm CMC Markets.

more...

[UpInArms]

11. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

Last trade 89.12 Change +0.01 (+0.01%)

Non-Farm Payrolls – Should We Believe Treasury Secretary Snow?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx-reports/daily-fundamentals/7852-non-farm-payrolls--should-we-believe-treasury-secretary.html

US Dollar - The US dollar has recovered nicely ahead of tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report. At a time when the market has been doubting the Federal Reserve’s optimism, the dollar really needs a strong payrolls number in order to extend its current rally. In fact, much of the strength that we have seen today represents position adjustments following comments from the European Central Bank rather than traders positioning for a good payrolls number. The current forecast is for 190,000 jobs to have been created last month compared to 243,000 jobs created the month prior. With less than 24 hours to go before the payrolls number is released, the question that lies ahead of us is do we believe what the US Treasury is hinting or do we believe the data. Yesterday, Treasury Secretary John Snow said that the upcoming March employment report should show “some good numbers.” Is he telling us that payrolls could easily exceed expectations? According to many bank analysts commenting on his optimistic view, the BLS probably did not have the entire nonfarm data tabulated when Snow made his comments. However when he made the same comments in April 2004, the accompanying non-farm payrolls report came close to doubling expectations. The recent economic data released suggest that if there is a surprise, it would most likely be to the downside. The employment components of both the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing reports deteriorated in March, as did that of the Philly Fed survey. However the employment component of the Chicago PMI report rebounded after declining three out of the past four months. Job growth will also have to contend with a strike that took away 6,200 jobs last month, while the market is talking about a tiny report called the Hudson Employment Index which reported a dip in hiring in the month of March. Yet don’t be confused, triple digit gains are still expected with jobless claims averaging at a low 310k level. In fact, claims came in much better than expected today, rising by a mere 299k. They are just not expected to be as high as the February figure, when we had jobless claims average at 290k. Signs that payrolls will still be a respectable number come from the rise in the current condition components of the confidence surveys and the 25 percent dip in layoff announcements reported by Challenger, Gray and Christmas. It is also worth noting that gold prices broker above $600 an ounce before settling lower while oil prices are trading at 2 month highs. This has been very positive for the Australian and Canadian dollars.

...more...

[UpInArms]

14. China to relax foreign currency policies

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/business/financial_markets/14274179.htm

BEIJING - China's government plans to let businesses and its public hold more foreign exchange, state media on Thursday quoted a central bank official as saying, amid pressure on Beijing to ease its strict currency controls.

The bank has submitted a proposal to shift the government's strategy on currency reserves to "foreign exchange held by the people," the official Xinhua News Agency quoted Wu Xiaoling, a deputy bank governor, as saying Wednesday.

"The proposal means to relax the policies of foreign currency in order to boost the amount of foreign currency held by individuals," she was quoted as saying. Her comments also were reported by the China Daily newspaper.

The reports didn't say when the change might take effect or give details of how it would affect businesses or individuals.

China requires its companies to sell to the government most of the foreign currency that they earn abroad, and travelers are allowed to take only a small amount of foreign exchange out of the country.

A state newspaper reported last month that China's reserves of foreign currency have reached $853.7 billion, the biggest in the world.

...more...

[54anickel]

30. The 1970s Redux

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=53204

snip>

In addition to copper many commodities especially the metals have moved up strongly in the last 3 years.

Commodity 3/03-3/06 Price Increase



Oil $30 to $66.41 up 121%

Copper $.73 to $2.45 up 236%

Gold $340.0 to $583.5 up 72%

Silver $4.50 to $11.49 up 155%

Aluminum $.60 to $1.13 up 88%

Nickel $3.50 to $7.80 up 123%

Lead $.20 to $.55 up 175%

Zinc $.35 to $1.20 up 247%

Commodity price increases have been fueled by growth in China, India, Brazil and other developing countries. It takes a large increase in commodity consumption to develop a country. There are factories, roads and buildings to construct and they are made of different commodities. The boom has also been driven by lax Central Bank monetary policy around the world.

These moves are especially noteworthy in an era of low 2% inflation. The Federal Reserve has noticed this as well and mentioned rising commodity prices several times in their release after hiking the Fed Funds rate .25% to 4.75% on Tuesday. This is one of the reasons that we believe we should see Fed Funds at 5.00% or higher in May. The Federal Reserve would prefer not raise the rate the higher but their hand has been forced by higher commodity prices. The high commodities prices are creating a need for higher interest rates to contain commodity based inflation.

The conventional wisdom is that demand from China, India and developing countries are driving commodity prices. We now believe that some commodity prices are also moving up based on hedge fund hoarding and possible stockpiling of strategic materials by some countries. It is possible that some of the Central Bank diversification out of the dollar could be finding its way into “strategic commodities”. The commodity action we are seeing is reminiscent of the early 1970s. The surge in commodity prices argues for higher interest rates on the short and long end of the yield curve.

[UpInArms]

36. there goes the neighborhood

Last trade 88.94 Change -0.17 (-0.19%)

Settle Time 15:00 Open 89.10

Previous Close 89.11 High 89.29

Low 88.91 2006-04-07 08:33:05, 30 min delay

[UpInArms]

66. Dollar rises sharply, following US bond yields up

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-07T134211Z_01_NYJ000040_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FOREX-UPDATE-8-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, April 7 (Reuters) - The dollar reversed course on Friday and rose to session highs against the euro, as benchmark U.S. bond yields steadily rose following a March U.S. payrolls report largely in-line with expectations.

By early morning, the euro <EUR=> fell around 0.5 percent to $1.2146 after having reached a 7-month high of $1.2333 on Thursday.

The spread of 2-year U.S. Treasury yields over same maturity euro zone paper widened to the most in a month, according to Reuters data.

Do I smell a whiff of intervention? :eyes:

[54anickel]

41. IMF warns high prices risk global crisis (Here it comes)

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/8d37b640-c59d-11da-b675-0000779e2340.html

snip>

The IMF will say in its World Economic Outlook report that “global current account imbalances are likely to remain at elevated levels for longer than would otherwise have been the case, heightening the risk of sudden disorderly adjustment”. A draft of the second chapter of the report was obtained by Expansion, the Financial Times’ Spanish partner paper.

High oil prices are increasing the US trade deficit, the report says. In addition, the recycling of petrodollars is driving down interest rates providing an unsustainable boost to US private consumption.

The IMF estimates that oil prices explain half of the deterioration of the US current account deficit between 2002 and 2005. In that period, the deficit rose 2 percentage points, to a record 6.5 per cent of gross domestic product.

Rodrigo Rato, IMF managing director, this week warned that “good economic performance rests on a shaky foundation, because of large and continuing global imbalances”. The US current account deficit is forecast to increase again in 2006, Mr Rato said, partly because of the impact of high energy prices.

Washington has blamed surpluses in Japan as well as in emerging Asian countries, particularly China, for its current account problems. But the IMF’s focus on oil prices and global imbalances shows that the issue has grown in complexity.

more...


IMF gambles as it convenes econ imbalances meeting
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2006-04-06T203450Z_01_N05201825_RTRUKOC_0_US-ECONOMY-IMF-IMBALANCES.xml

The forum's first test will come when IMF Managing Director Rodrigo Rato convenes a closed-door conference on April 21 of global financial leaders a day before the twice-yearly IMF meetings.

He hopes the Washington meeting will encourage countries to lower their guards and hold "frank" discussions on global distortions in trade and economic growth.

The IMF has no leverage to force countries to take the steps that will move the global economy back into balance but they can help by initiating policy discussions and detailing the dangers of doing nothing.

In recent speeches, member countries have accused the IMF of not doing enough to halt a trend that threatens the stability of the global financial system.

"The IMF as umpire should not shy away from making tough calls whenever they see the rules being violated, be it with respect to trade, capital flows, or other policies that distort financial markets," said Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge in a recent speech that mirrors sentiments of most member countries on the IMF's board.

snip>

"What you need is a concerted approach in which when the U.S. reduces its demand, the Asians increase their consumption and some others to act as well to keep overall global demand on an even keel," Buira said. "We're heading for a crash," he added.

more...

I take it that US reduced demand is going to come in the form of us being in a world of hurt...rates may or may not go much higher, but buck is definitely going lower...Plaza Accord Redux

[54anickel]

71. China on U.S. spending spree

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2002916176_chinatrade07.html

Chinese officials hoping to ease trade tensions before President Hu Jintao's upcoming visit to Washington, D.C., kicked off a coast-to-coast buying spree Thursday in Los Angeles that will include $15 billion in orders for U.S. software, airplanes, electronics goods, auto parts, farm goods and other products.

Although the new bookings will benefit many big names in industry, analysts were quick to express their skepticism about the Chinese trade mission. They characterized the supersize shopping extravaganza — the largest for a Chinese trade mission — as a not-so-subtle effort by Beijing to win over Americans without addressing the significant issues of the ballooning U.S.-China trade imbalance, piracy of U.S. goods and Chinese currency policy.

Even business groups warned that any gains from China's commercial diplomacy would be short-lived unless they were accompanied by concrete action on issues such as stronger intellectual-property protection.

Analysts said China's efforts also could backfire because the timing of the deals was so clearly intended to smooth the way for Hu's April 20 summit meeting with President Bush. Hu will also stop in Seattle on April 18 and 19, where he plans to tour Microsoft's campus and Boeing's Everett plant.

more...

[54anickel]

81. Greenback vulnerable to reshuffle of Gulf state coffers

Some central banks believed to be eyeing switch from dollar to euro

http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/sub/news/story/0,4574,191421,00.html?

SHOULD the Gulf state investment bodies, which hold more than half a trillion US dollars in reserves, decide to channel their funds to higher-yield currencies - the dollar will come under strong pressure in the currency markets.

Some analysts believe that while some central banks of the members in the Gulf Cooperation Council are contemplating a shift from the greenback to the euro, government-owned investment bodies are still holding their funds in dollar-based assets and are not yet planning to shift into the euro.

According to an analyst with an international bank in Dubai, these bodies might however move their funds to other currencies if they feel that the dollar would weaken further.

Reports of the twin deficits of the United States and other geopolitical and fundamental reasons have been cited for the recent weakness in the US dollar

more...

[UpInArms]

13. Padilla (COO) stepping down as Ford president

http://www.modbee.com/24hour/business/story/3252454p-12023513c.html

DETROIT (AP) - Ford CEO Bill Ford, great-grandson of founder Henry Ford, has tightened his leadership of the nation's No. 2 automaker with the departure of its president and chief operating officer, Jim Padilla.

The company said Thursday that Padilla was stepping down after four decades at Ford Motor Co. It said Chairman Bill Ford would assume Padilla's duties and would head a new executive committee composed of the automaker's executive vice presidents.

"I'm grateful for the 40 years of service Jim Padilla has given to Ford," Bill Ford said in a news release. "The legacy of Jim's impassioned leadership will be his tireless pursuit of excellence, his inspired championing of workplace diversity and the mentoring he practiced that paved the way for so many of our senior executives leading Ford today."

Padilla has been in his current position since April 2004. Before that, he was executive vice president of the company and president of the Americas. He has led manufacturing operations for Ford, Mercury and Lincoln in North and South America and at Jaguar.

Among those Padilla mentored were Mark Fields, Ford's president of the Americas, and Anne Stevens, chief operating officer of the Americas. Fields and Stevens are leading the company's North American turnaround plan, which calls for 30,000 job cuts and 14 plant closures by 2012 in a bid to return the automaker's North American division to profitability. The division lost $1.6 billion last year.

...more...

[UpInArms]

65. Ford CEO gets $13.2 million as compensation in '05

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-07T134924Z_01_WEN4238_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-FORD-URGENT.XML

DETROIT, April 7 (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co. (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Friday that Chairman and Chief Executive Bill Ford Jr. received a total compensation of $13.3 million in 2005.

Bill Ford did not receive any cash salary, bonus or other awards for the second, third and fourth quarters of 2005 as he had committed last May to forgo any compensation until the company's automotive unit made sustained profits.

The Ford family scion received restricted common stock in the first quarter of 2005 but no salary or bonus.

[UpInArms]

15. Judge urges settlement of Grasso case

http://www.boston.com/business/globe/articles/2006/04/07/judge_urges_settlement_of_grasso_case/?rss_id=Boston+Globe+--+Business+News

A New York judge called for an out-of-court settlement in the case over former New York Stock Exchange chairman Richard Grasso's $190 million pay package and rejected an attempt to delay a trial.

''This case begs for a settlement," State Supreme Court Judge Charles Ramos told lawyers for Grasso and New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer at a hearing in Manhattan yesterday. ''It's not going to do anyone any good to try this case. You have to start talking to your clients about how we settle this."

The comments mark the first time Ramos has called for Spitzer, Grasso, and his codefendant, Home Depot cofounder Kenneth Langone, to settle without a trial. Spitzer sued Grasso and Langone, the ex-head of the NYSE's compensation committee, in May 2004, to return most of Grasso's pay. Spitzer, Grasso, and Langone have all said they won't settle.

''He realizes that there is generally no common sense in having to try this case, because in the final analysis, it's just about money," said Charles Stillman, a lawyer at Stillman & Friedman in New York. By dismissing the NYSE's effort to push back the trial to February from October, Ramos is saying, ''Hey, if you want to go to trial, you'll have to do it soon."

...more...

[UpInArms]

20. N.Y.S.E. Executive Tells of Altering Documents to Hide Grasso's Full Payou

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/07/business/07grasso.html?ex=1302062400&en=30d96b0aedd231a5&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

A senior human resources executive at the New York Stock Exchange has told lawyers that she altered documents, at the request of her boss, to hide the full amount of compensation earned by Richard A. Grasso, the former chief executive of the exchange, a transcript of her deposition says.

The executive, Dale B. Bernstein, who in 2003 was executive vice president for human resources, said that she was instructed by her boss, Frank Z. Ashen, to hide, in an Excel spreadsheet, two columns of data that provided additional detail about Mr. Grasso's 1999, 2000 and 2001 compensation. She said she hid the columns with the bonus and total compensation information in documents that were provided to the compensation committee, but included that information in documents given to the finance department, which had to make the appropriate bookkeeping entries.

"I clicked 'hide column,' " she said in the deposition, which was provided by a person close to the case.

Her deposition suggests that Ms. Bernstein will be an important witness for Eliot Spitzer, the New York attorney general, in his lawsuit against Mr. Grasso, Kenneth G. Langone and the exchange itself. The lawsuit contends that Mr. Grasso's $139.5 million pay package violated New York's not-for-profit laws and contends that information provided to the exchange's board was "materially incomplete, inaccurate and misleading."

<snip>

When queried if she would have included the data, she said the decision "was not mine to make."

...more...

[WhiteTara]

111. slimy lttle sneaks! n/t

[UpInArms]

16. Atlantic insurance to cancel 140,000 Florida policies

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/orl-atlantic0606apr06,0,983053.story?track=rss

WEST PALM BEACH -- About 140,000 Florida homeowners will lose their insurance policies after a large provider said it will begin canceling them just over a month into this year's hurricane season.

Atlantic Preferred Insurance Co., a subsidiary of Tampa-based Poe Financial Group, will begin dropping its policies July 13 as they come up for renewal.

The move comes just weeks after Poe announced that another subsidiary would stop policy renewals. The company said it needed to lure investors to help cover a $2 billion hit from claims in the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons.

"With the ongoing loss activity and the uncertainty of future losses, this is action that we have to take," Senior Vice President David Gough said Wednesday. "At this point, we don't have a solution."

<snip>

On March 8, Poe announced that its subsidiary Southern Family Insurance Co. would stop issuing new policies or renewing them for existing customers. The company said at the time that Atlantic Preferred and Florida Preferred Insurance Co. would stop issuing new home or condo policies but would continue to renew existing customers.

...more...

[UpInArms]

17. Judge denies GM motion to dismiss employee suit - ret. acct mis-mgmt

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-07T072812Z_01_N07281542_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-GM-RULING.XML

NEW YORK, April 7 (Reuters) - A U.S. judge in Michigan refused a motion by General Motors Corp. (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) to dismiss a lawsuit claiming it had failed in its responsibility to properly manage employees' retirement accounts, attorneys for the plaintiffs said on Friday.

The suit, filed in the U.S. District Court for Michigan, claims that GM and plan fiduciaries ignored the company's dire financial problems and in doing so imprudently managed two retirement funds, causing employee-investors to incur huge losses, the attorneys said.

In the ruling that allows the case to go forward, Judge Nancy Edmunds said GM had a duty to convey complete and accurate financial information about the company's true financial health to the plaintiffs.

The suit, which claims the struggling automaker failed to live up to those responsibilities, involves two General Motors ERISA Plans -- the Personal Savings Plan for Hourly Employees, and the Savings-Stock Purchased Program for Salaried Employees -- both of which held large amounts of General Motors stock.

"Even when analysts begin issuing 'sell' recommendations and the company's debt was reduced to junk status, the committee refused to take action for their employees," charged Steve Berman, co-lead counsel for the plaintiffs, in a statement.

...more...

[UpInArms]

18. GM reportedly clarifies 'outsourcing message' to suppliers

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B58A5BFEF%2D2C85%2D4CE0%2DA35A%2D4B4442D2F87C%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw&print=true&dist=printTop

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- General Motors Corp. (GM) says it has no official policy requiring suppliers to outsource work to low-wage countries, but several suppliers were told in clear language that if they wanted the GM contract they had to acquire more than 30% of the parts from approved nations ranging from China to Namibia, according to documents obtained by The Detroit News.

<snip>

"GM's suppliers must determine how to compete in this hyper-competitive market," the paper reported him as saying.

The paper reported that while most suppliers won't speak out against GM and other automakers on the record, they say the message is clear: Outsource or get left behind.

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

19. Cold Weather Stunted Retail Growth in March

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/07/business/07shop.html?ex=1302062400&en=7cf8ee88b1939649&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

Retailers reported the slowest monthly sales growth in more than a year yesterday as cold weather, higher gasoline prices and a late Easter limited spending.

<snip>

Stores stocking spring clothing were hurt as turbulent weather swept the nation and gasoline prices hit their highest levels of the year. Retailers are forecasting stronger gains this month as they benefit from the Easter holiday and an improving job market.

"With cool spring weather, retailers were unable to sell much seasonable merchandise in March," said Dan Popowics, an analyst with Fifth Third Asset Management in Cincinnati. "Easter is coming at the tail end this year. That means April will make or break their fiscal first quarter."

The Goldman Sachs same-store sales index rose 1.6 percent. Specialty retailers were hardest hit, followed by department stores, while discounters had the best performance, Goldman said.

A research firm that tracks analysts' estimates, Retail Metrics of Boston, said 60 percent of retailers missed expectations for a second consecutive month.

...more...

[ozymandius]

40. flash forward to September:

Hot Weather Stunted Retail Growth in August

Retailers reported the slowest monthly sales growth in more than a year yesterday as hot weather, higher gasoline prices and a late July Fourth limited spending.

:silly:

[UpInArms]

45. I can also hear them in August

saying that sales are slow because Labor is in September.

:rofl:

[Roland99]

47. Don't forget. That late Mother's Day will hurt *April* sales, too.

:eyes:

[UpInArms]

61. I wonder if X-mas will be late this year, also.

:hi:

[converted_democrat]

68. On CNN yesterday they were blaming the clothing retailers slump

on the retailers themselves.. They said it was because the colors that they put out were shades of beige and white, and it didn't "compel" people to buy.. Yea right.. No compelling colors my ass.. I just about fell out of my chair when I heard it.. I didn't know if I should laugh or cry.. The saddest part is some people actually believe it.. The vast majority of people have no money, but I guess that's too obvious of an answer.. I own my own business, and I'm doing okay, but I'm not spending any money unless it's out of necessity..

Edited for clarity..

[UpInArms]

73. It's all those late Mother's Days that have never been in May before

:eyes:

[UpInArms]

69. Department-store stocks lead retail index higher at open

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B5F95A307%2D45B5%2D4E85%2D9680%2DE9CD5EA178AF%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Retail stocks got in on the early morning rally Friday to give the sector's key yardstick a boost. The S&P Retail Index ($RLX 484.14, +1.51, +0.3% ) rose marginally to 484.62. Shares of Bon-Ton Stores (BONT 30.00, +0.54, +1.8% ) rose 1.7% to $29.96 while shares of J.C. Penney (JCP 60.82, +0.32, +0.5% ) added 1.5% to $61.45.

:eyes:

[AnneD]

125. If that were totally true....

they would never sell anything in winter, with or without Christmas.

[UpInArms]

23. Rumbles on the Leaker-In-Chief

Leaker in chief

The legal and political ramifications of the papers prosecutors filed late Wednesday in the case against former White House aide I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby remain unclear. But if what Libby asserts is true, the president would be faced with an uncomfortable choice: He is either a leaker or a hypocrite.

In the filings, Libby says he was told by Vice President Dick Cheney that Bush had given presidential permission for Libby "to disclose certain information" to Judith Miller, then a reporter for the New York Times, about a classified prewar intelligence report. Libby has been charged with perjury and obstruction of justice in the investigation into who "outed" Plame.

<snip>

There also is the issue of Bush's numerous previous statements, now making their way across the Internet at the speed of a DSL line, about leaking. One of the most popular is from Sept. 30, 2003: "Let me just say something about leaks in Washington. There are too many leaks of classified information in Washington. There's leaks at the executive branch; there's leaks in the legislative branch. There's just too many leaks. And if there is a leak out of my administration, I want to know who it is. And if the person has violated law, the person will be taken care of."

Leave the legal issues about classified information and executive power to the constitutional scholars. The simpler question is whether Bush still believes, if he ever did, what he said in September 2003. If so, who in his administration needs to be taken care of?

and

Playing Hardball With Secrets

For more than two years, Senate Republicans have dragged out an investigation into how the Bush administration came to use bogus intelligence on Iraq to justify a war. A year ago, Pat Roberts, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, called it "a monumental waste of time" to consider whether the White House manipulated intelligence to exaggerate the threat posed by Saddam Hussein.

Meanwhile, the evidence has steadily mounted that President Bush and his team not only did that before the war, but kept right on doing it after the invasion. The most recent additions to this pile came yesterday, in reports by The New York Sun, The National Journal and other news organizations on documents from the case against Lewis Libby, the former chief of staff to Vice President Cheney who is charged with lying about the unmasking of Valerie Wilson, a covert C.I.A. agent.

According to these papers, Mr. Libby testified that President Bush authorized him to tell reporters about classified intelligence on Iraq as part of an effort to discredit Mrs. Wilson's husband, Joseph Wilson, a retired diplomat who had cast doubt on the claim that Iraq tried to acquire uranium for nuclear bombs from Niger. The National Journal reported that Mr. Libby has also said that Mr. Cheney authorized him to leak classified information before the invasion to make the case for war.

<snip>

The National Journal reported that George Tenet, then director of central intelligence, told prosecutors that the C.I.A. reviewed the uranium story at Mr. Cheney's behest. He said the C.I.A. concluded there was no evidence to support it. The National Journal said Mr. Tenet reported this to Mr. Cheney and other officials, but the vice president continued to peddle the Niger fairy tale to the public.

The intelligence report on Iraq, prepared in late 2002, has now been largely declassified. But the White House has kept secret a one-page summary prepared for Mr. Bush. According to The National Journal, that document said the State Department and the Energy Department had concluded that it also was not true that Iraq bought aluminum tubes to enrich uranium. During his State of the Union address in 2003, Mr. Bush said flatly that it was true.

[54anickel]

34. Nothing hypocritical about it at all.....

And if the person has violated law, the person will be taken care of

So far, he's been very true to his word. Those who have lied or violated any law have been cared for very well thus far. :evilgrin:

The man is pure evil, I'd be willing to bet that's exactly what's running thru his mind. He's probably laughing to himself saying "I never said HOW they'd be taken care of".

[Roland99]

38. Roberts is such a prick. *5* months since the November move by Reid

and what do we have?


Jack Squat.

[UpInArms]

24. Latest Gam-Anon Mtg: Derivative traders see March US payrolls at 189,400

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-07T121330Z_01_N07293719_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-PAYROLLS-DERIVATIVES.XML

NEW YORK, April 7 (Reuters) - Traders on Friday bet U.S. non-farm payrolls will show a seasonally adjusted gain of 189,400 jobs in March, in the final of four derivatives auctions related to the data due, up from the prior auction and near economists' expectations.

The U.S. Labor Department will issue the March jobs report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. (1230 GMT).

The latest auction's implied median expectation of 189,400 is up from 184,000 in the third auction late on Thursday.

The median forecast of economists polled last week by Reuters predicted a 190,000-job increase in nonfarm payrolls following a 243,000 increase in February.

Among possible outcomes, a payroll gain between 200,000 and 225,000 drew the most bets, with 14.6 percent of traders betting on that outcome.

...more...

[UpInArms]

25. Hayes Lemmerz (auto supplier) to combine 2 businesses; cut wages/benefits

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BF91B5D20%2D1993%2D4F98%2D9B3A%2D40E70A6917A9%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Hayes Lemmerz International Inc. (HAYZ 2.46, -0.09, -3.5% ) Friday said it plans to combine its suspension components and automotive brake and powertrain components businesses into a single unit and reduce certain wage and benefit costs as part of a restructuring. The company is reducing base pay by up to 7.5% for its U.S. employees, 10% for the president and CEO, and 20% for members of the board of directors. The Northville, Mich., car parts provider also temporarily suspended company contributions to employee 401(k) plans and said it's restructuring its short-term incentive compensation plans for hourly and salaried employees. In addition, Hayes forecast sales of about $2 billion for 2006, primarily due to reductions in North American volumes. The stock closed Friday at $2.46, down 3.5%.

[UpInArms]

28. Navistar (truck maker) 10-K delay leads to retirement plan suspension

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B7EE52F92%2DC4F6%2D4095%2D9000%2DFCCF2F601D01%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Navistar International Corp. (NAV 27.96, -0.49, -1.7% ) suspended share purchases in its retirement plans by employees, beginning Friday, and lasting until the company files its annual report for 2005. In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, truck maker Navistar said the blackout also prevents directors and executive officers from selling shares in 401(k) plans. Navistar said it intends to file an annual report as soon as possible "but cannot estimate the date such report will be filed."

[Roland99]

43. That doesn't bode well.

[54anickel]

49. I'll give 'em some credit for blocking the sales, but if you look at

the monthly chart you can't help but wonder if someone was in the know at the end of March. :shrug:

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?symb=NAV&sid=3344&freq=1&time=1mo&siteid=mktw

[UpInArms]

118. Navistar to restate results for FY02 through 3Q of FY05

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B8203279D%2DD668%2D41C8%2D9847%2D2DAA8698681C%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Navistar International Corp. (NAV 28.21, +0.25, +0.9% ) said Friday it will restate its financial results for the fiscal years 2002 through 2004 and for the first three quarters of fiscal 2005. The Warrenville, Ill.-based truck engine maker also said it has fired Deloitte & Touche LLP and named KPMG LLP as the company's new auditor. Navistar said "known adjustments" will not affect previously reported cash flows from operations on a restated basis. The company is still unsure when it will file be able its 2005 form 10-K, which will include the prior period restatements. Navistar also named James Blanda as interim corporate controller.

[Roland99]

144. Hmm...GM *and* Navistar restating financials but not affecting cash flows.

hhmmmmm...

[UpInArms]

32. Treasuries erratic after mixed signals from jobs

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-07T124302Z_01_NYG000174_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, April 7 (Reuters) - Treasury debt prices bounced around near unchanged on Friday after the latest U.S. jobs data pointed to a strong labor market but also showed tamer wage growth than many expected.

The data did little to alter expectations for at least one more interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, leaving benchmark 10-year notes <US10YT=RR> flat and yielding 4.90 percent.

Ten-year yieds briefly hit 4.93 percent, their highest since June 2002, while those on the 30-year bond <US30YT=RR> touched 5 percent for the first time since December 2004.

[UpInArms]

35. PIEHOLE ALERT: Dimson will make a "statement" on the economy at 9:40 ET

8:59 AM ET 4/7/06 BUSH TO MAKE STATEMENT ON ECONOMY AT 9:40 A.M. ET

The dimson will get out there and tell everyone how great this economy is -

If the economy is so damn good, no one needs to be told - they already know.

EVERYONE KNOWS THAT THE LEAKER-IN-CHIEF IS A LIAR.

[Roland99]

39. Damage control. Divert and spin.

[54anickel]

44. Obviously there will be no questions taken? All mics cut within a

nanosecond of his "thank you" at the end. Can't have the public ears hearing the word Libby while their eyes see Bush.

[UpInArms]

46. This will not be a "press conference" - this is a "statement"!

No questions will be allowed near der fuhrer!

[54anickel]

51. Bet there's not a single reporter in the room. Wonder if it will be a

friendly fireside chat? Nah, he likes that "power" impression he gets in the Oval office.

[ozymandius]

59. I'll bet Brit Hume and the Barberini Faun are there. n/t

[UpInArms]

77. this article says "reporters" but maybe it meant "stenographers"?

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-07T135736Z_01_N07254552_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-BUSH-UPDATE-1.XML

WASHINGTON, April 7 (Reuters) - President George W. Bush warned the U.S. Congress on Friday he will veto budget legislation if it does not restrain spending.

Bush, appearing before reporters at the White House, also welcomed a Labor Department report that the U.S. economy added 211,000 jobs in March, calling it evidence of an overall economic resurgence "that is strong and broad and benefiting all Americans."

Amid protracted negotiations in Congress over the amount of spending in an election year, Bush urged lawmakers to restrain spending to stay on track to cut the deficit in half by 2009.

"If necessary I will enforce spending restraint through the exercise of the veto," Bush said.

While Bush has warned of vetoing legislation in the past, he has never actually used the veto in more than five years in office.

...more...

[54anickel]

90. Heh-heh - wouldn't that be Brit and Barberini? n/t

[AnneD]

128. Stenographer....

:spray: UIA, you crack me up.....These News agencies could save a lot of $$ with that downsizing....

[UpInArms]

55. PIEHOLE OPEN AND LYING

9:35 AM ET 4/7/06 BUSH CREDITS TAX CUTS FOR STEADY JOB GROWTH

9:34 AM ET 4/7/06 BUSH SAYS JOB GROWTH IN MARCH SIGN OF ECONOMIC RESURGENCE

9:34 AM ET 4/7/06 BUSH SAYS INFLATION 'IS CONTAINED'

[ozymandius]

58. Obviously, somebody's buying what he's selling.

Believe! Just believe my sweet lemmings!

9:40
Dow 11,263.48 +46.98 (+0.42%)
Nasdaq 2,374.10 +12.93 (+0.55%)
S&P 500 1,313.75 +4.71 (+0.36%)
10-Yr Bond 49.36 +0.43 (+0.88%)
NYSE Volume 111,737,000
Nasdaq Volume 159,607,000

[ozymandius]

62. Jeebus. It's over already?

Did he even stop walking as he entered stage-left and exited stage-right while spouting his drivel?

[UpInArms]

64. Bush warns of budget veto if needed

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-07T134533Z_01_WAT005240_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-BUSH-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, April 7 (Reuters) - President George W. Bush warned the U.S. Congress on Friday that he will enforce spending restraint in the budget through the veto if needed.

Bush also hailed a Labor Department report that the U.S. economy added 211,000 jobs in March, calling it evidence of an overall economic resurgence.

Amid protracted negotiations in Congress over the amount of spending in an election year, Bush urged Congress to restrain spending in order to stay on track to cut the deficit in half by 2009.

"If necessary I will enforce spending restraint through the exercise of the veto," Bush said.

[wordpix]

143. translation: * will veto any social/environmental spending while OKing tax

cuts for rich and increasing military portion of budget, including Star Wars and nuclear arms race spending.

[Roland99]

116. Here's a bit of info on those months of employment increasing >>>>>>>>>>>>

Only goes thru 2004 but shows how far off this administration was in its projections vs. reality)





And, up through Feb. 2006 Numbers in 1000s:
Net jobs 2001-2006.................................2305
Equilibrium jobs (160k/mo)....................9920
Shortage....................................................-7615
Net jobs since 2003 Q4...........................4894
Equilibrium jobs (160k/mo).....................4640
Gain................................................................254


Anything below 160k new jobs/month is NOT growth
Numbers above based upon
http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers&series_id=CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth


And, let's toss in: Real Wages Declining:
http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers&series_id=CES0500000049

[RawMaterials]

137. shh don't tell anyone

but the jobs they are creating are in china, and or, ones in the us that americans don't want!
:puke:

[UpInArms]

60. Now SnowJob is Spewing

9:43 AM ET 4/7/06 SNOW SAYS TREASURY SECRETARY JOB SUBJECT FOR BUSH AND HIM

[UpInArms]

70. SnowJob says Treasury secretary job subject for Bush and him

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B4240C6BB%2D986E%2D42AF%2DBDA2%2D7340DFB90D61%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Treasury Secretary John Snow deflected questions about his job plans in an interview with CNBC-TV Friday, saying his tenure as secretary is a subject for he and President Bush. "I serve at the pleasure of the president," Snow said. Rumors have been swirling that Snow may soon announce his resignation. He also declined to comment on speculation that Goldman Sachs (GS 163.04, +1.00, +0.6% ) chief executive Henry Paulson is a candidate for the Treasury job.

[UpInArms]

84. US Treasury's Snow says serves at Bush's pleasure

That rather has the sound of a prostitute speaking :eyes:

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-07T141903Z_01_WAT005241_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-SNOW-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, April 7 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Friday that his future in the position would depend on private conversations between himself and President George W. Bush.

Speaking on CNBC television, Snow declined to comment on press reports that Goldman Sachs chief executive Henry Paulson may replace him.

Asked whether he intended to serve as Treasury secretary for the remainder of Bush's second term, Snow said: "I thank you for the inquiry, but that's a subject for me and the president. As all cabinet secretaries (do), I serve at the pleasure of the president. I'm honored and privileged to hold this post but that's really a private conversation with the president of the United States."

Snow said he was heartened by Bush's remarks earlier this week that Snow "has been a valuable member of my administration".

"It's nice to have your boss endorse you. I appreciated that vote of confidence from the president," Snow said.

...more...

:puke:

[UpInArms]

88. Treasury's Snow sees Congress extending tax cuts

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-07T143754Z_01_WAT005242_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-SNOW-TAXES-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, April 7 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow on Friday said he expects Congress to reach a compromise that will extend tax cuts when members return from a two-week Easter break.

Snow, speaking on Bloomberg Televsion, said Congress nearly reached a deal last night. However, Republicans were not successful in extending a maximum 15 percent tax rate on capital gains and dividends and providing some relief from the Alternative Minimum Tax.

Snow, who cancelled a trip to Ohio on Thursday to help push the tax bill through, said he believed that a deal may be reached by the end of April.

"I think they're very, very, very close and i'm confident that when they return, since they're so close now -- they've put in place a frame work that's going to yield a good outcome here -- and I would expect that shortly after they return from the recess."

"Stroke harder!" demanded der fuhrer.

[UpInArms]

127. Bush believes Snow doing "good job" -- spokesman

Was it as good for you as it was for me, Snow asks? :smoke:

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-07T175330Z_01_WAT005246_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-BUSH-SNOW-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, April 7 (Reuters) - President George W. Bush told financial reporters on Friday that Treasury Secretary John Snow is doing a good job and Bush appreciates him, the White House said.

At his daily news briefing, White House spokesman Scott McClellan was asked whether Snow was being a good advocate for the administration's economic policies.

"The president said earlier today when he was in an interview with some financial reporters that Secretary Snow is doing a good job and he appreciates the job he is doing," McClellan said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

72. Dimson says March job report a sign of economic resurgence

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B2A3C7574%2D81EA%2D4AC5%2D9417%2D0ABB98B1DF51%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The strong gain in March payroll employment and the decline in the unemployment rate are signs of an economic resurgence, President Bush said Friday. In a brief statement from the White House, Bush said economic growth is strong and inflation is contained. Bush said his administration's tax cuts were responsible for the 31 straight months of job gains.

[ozymandius]

42. pre-open blather

09:01 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.5. Futures trade is taking a bullish cue from the employment report and is signaling a higher start for the stock market. Overall, the data did not bring much of a surprise. Perhaps most significantly, hourly earnings rose a less than expected 0.2%. The trend in earnings has increased in recent months, and the smaller gain in March is a welcomed one. At the same time, it is just one month of data. The year-over-year increase in hourly earnings is 3.4%. The bond market, meanwhile, has had a more tempered response to the report. At this point, the benchmark 10-year note is slightly improved - but it's still yielding 4.89%. Treasuries will remain a focal point for the stock market.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0. The jobs report has been released. We believe that hourly earnings and the unemployment rate will be the market's focal points. Hourly earnings grew slightly less than expected 0.2%, versus the 0.3% that economists had expected and versus the prior month's 0.3% increase. The unemployment rate was 4.7%, slightly below the 4.8% consensus estimate and February rate. Non-farm payrolls were up a more than expected 211,000 (consensus 190,000), but the February figure was revised downward by 18,000 to 225,000. In line with expectations, the average workweek was 33.8 hours. In traders' immediate reaction, stock futures have risen. Bonds are trading in choppy fashion. First yields rose, then they fell, and now they're flat on the day.

[ozymandius]

50. sympathy for the bond traders (markets open for bidness)

9:31
Dow 11,223.06 +6.56 (+0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,367.13 +5.96 (+0.25%)
S&P 500 1,309.04 0.00 (0.00%)
10-Yr Bond 49.11 +0.18 (+0.37%)
NYSE Volume 24,462,000
Nasdaq Volume 48,333,000

[UpInArms]

52. MarketWatch has a bond bulletin

30-YEAR BOND YIELD TOPS 5%; 10-YEAR YIELD AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE JUNE 2002

[54anickel]

54. Dang, I was just going to post wondering if it would hit 5 today after

checking numbers page on Yahoo that shows

10-yr Bond 49.11 +0.18 (+0.37%)
30-yr Bond 49.85 +0.25 (+0.50%)

[UpInArms]

56. 30-yr Treasury yield breaks above 5%

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B9F300C20%2DCE96%2D4A85%2D8C4D%2DF40462391802%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond broke above the 5% level early Friday for the first time since the long bond was revived in February. The last time the yield was above 5% was in December, 2004. The 30-year bond last was 17/32 lower at 92-3/32 with a yield (TYX 50.04, +0.44, +0.9% ) of 5.016%. According to Kim Rupert, managing director of fixed income at Action Economics, market players have been trying to push yields up to the 5% level because the Federal Reserve is widely expected to increase the fed funds rate to 5% at its May policy meeting. The 10-year yield is trading near its highest level in nearly four years at 4.936%, after earlier flirting with the 5% point.

[UpInArms]

53. Treasury yields hit fresh highs after jobs data

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-07T133416Z_01_NYG000175_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-2-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, April 7 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices took a spill on Friday, sending long-term yields to new highs as strong job growth reinforced expectations for more interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.

In a belated reaction to a stronger-than-expected jobs report, benchmark 10-year notes <US10YT=RR> dived 10/32 for a yield of 4.94 percent, near its highest since June 2002 and up from 4.90 percent on Thursday.

Yields on the 30-year bond<US30YT=RR> stood above 5 percent for the first time since December 2004.

[54anickel]

79. Inverted Yield Curve Sent False Alarm as U.S. Economy Expands

BWAHAHAHAHA! I LOVE that headline!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=ajk32K9ivJsQ&refer=us

April 7 (Bloomberg) -- So much for the inverted yield curve.

For 38 days starting in late December, two-year U.S. Treasury yields rose above those of 10-year notes, a rare phenomenon in the bond market that preceded the last four recessions. No less an expert than Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund, and economists at Merrill Lynch & Co. said the economy was poised to slow.

Bond yields may have sent a false alarm. The government said today that U.S. employers added 211,000 jobs in March, capping the best start for hiring of any year since 2000. Gross domestic product last quarter probably expanded at a 4.7 percent rate, the fastest in more than two years, a Bloomberg News survey shows. The Federal Reserve is talking about the need to keep raising interest rates to make sure the economy doesn't overheat.

``I don't believe the inversion we saw was a precursor to a recession as it has been in the past,'' said Ford O'Neil, who manages more than $20 billion of bonds for Fidelity Investments in Merrimack, New Hampshire. ``We should start seeing a general steepening of the yield curve'' as long-term debt loses its appeal based on expectations for higher returns from competing investments such as stocks and foreign bonds, he said.

Ten-year Treasuries as of yesterday yielded 6 basis points more than two-year notes, the most since Dec. 20. Long-term securities typically yield more than short-term debt because investors want to be compensated for the risk that inflation accelerates over the life of the bond. As the difference in yields across all maturities widens, the curve is said to steepen.

Over the past 20 years, 10-year Treasury yields exceeded two-year yields by an average of 92 basis points. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. The 10-year note yielded 4.88 percent today, and the two-year note yielded 4.83 percent.

more...

[UpInArms]

57. 9:40 EST markets (except for bonds) doing the happy happy joy joy

Dow 11,263.88 +47.38 (+0.42%)
Nasdaq 2,374.47 +13.30 (+0.56%)
S&P 500 1,313.65 +4.61 (+0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 4.934 +0.41 (+0.84%)

NYSE Volume 108,527,000
Nasdaq Volume 154,271,000

edited to add blather:

09:40 am : Today's employment data has not undermined the stock market's recent modestly bullish tone. The headline reads, particularly relating to hourly earnings and non-farm payrolls, reflect strong economic growth amid contained inflationary pressures. The revisions to the prior month's data, however, temper that conclusion. Considering the February revisions, payrolls were only a bit above the expected level, and the net increase in hourly earnings matched expectations for March. The data are essentially consistent with expectations. For the stock market, this has provided some relief and has given investors a reason to buy. The Treasury market has taken a different course, though. The data did not provide bond traders with evidence that the Fed will be inclined to stop raising rates. The initial reaction within that market was a choppy one, but prices have since fallen and yields risen. The stock market is increasingly sensitive to bond yields - and the fact that the 10-year (-06/32) is now up to a 4.93% yield is not supportive. DJ30 +37.78 NASDAQ +10.39 SP500 +3.93

[Sammy Pepys]

63. My portfolio has been soaring....

Even yesterday I was still up.

Hope it'll last.....:scared:

[54anickel]

80. Ford Pays Highest Yield Since 1992 to Keep Bond Market Access

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=al8SexmnSrSE&refer=us

April 7 (Bloomberg) -- Ford Motor Co.'s finance unit is paying a high price for access to a corporate debt market that is anticipating the second-biggest U.S. automaker will default.

Yields on $1.5 billion floating-rate notes that Ford Motor Credit Co. sold last week were the highest since 1992, even with an option allowing investors to sell the bonds back to Ford in 2 1/2 years. The last time Ford paid investors that much, the automaker locked in rates for four decades.

Dearborn, Michigan-based Ford is trying to preserve a source for cash and ease rating companies' concern that the carmaker is too dependent on securities backed by auto loans. While loan- backed offerings have a lower borrowing cost, they leave fewer assets available for bondholders to claim in a bankruptcy.

``They wanted to stay out there in the corporate market even though it hurts them,'' said Mirko Mikelic, a portfolio manager overseeing $14 billion of fixed-income investments at Fifth Third Asset Management in Grand Rapids, Michigan. ``The coupon was huge, but they're in a serious situation.''

Ford, whose credit rating was reduced below investment grade in May, will initially pay a 9.45 percent yield on the notes due in 2012. The coupon is the highest since the carmaker sold 40- year debt at 9.95 percent 14 years ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Ford hasn't sold a six-year bond with a yield that big since at least 1971.

more...

[UpInArms]

98. Ford to Slow production on the Ford500 - lay off staff

11:07 AM ET 4/7/06 FORD TO SLOW FIVE HUNDRED PRODUCTION, LAY OFF STAFF: DETNEWS

adding link and blurb on edit:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B286480E3%2DE394%2D4EB5%2DAAE6%2D18CD046CA6C7%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Ford Motor Co. (F 7.66, +0.01, +0.1% ) plans to slow production of its flagship sedan, the Ford Five Hundred, on slumping demand, according to a published report Friday. The automaker will subsequently lay off an unspecified number of workers at its Chicago assembly plant in the fall, the Detroit News reported. "We are taking a line-speed reduction to match production capacity with customer demand," Ford spokeswoman Anne Marie Gattari was quoted as saying. Ford will then unveil a redesigned version of the Five Hundred early next year, with a bolder front end and a more modern and powerful 3.5-liter engine, the Detroit News said, citing unnamed people familiar with the plans.

[UpInArms]

82. 10:26 EST bloodletting begins

Dow 11,189.04 -27.46 (-0.24%)
Nasdaq 2,353.85 -7.32 (-0.31%)
S&P 500 1,304.21 -4.83 (-0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 4.928 +0.35 (+0.72%)

NYSE Volume 415,409,000
Nasdaq Volume 505,166,000

10:00 am : The equity market is maintaining its positive footing, but has pared opening gains. Several areas of the market are benefiting from buying interest, but attention to the Treasury market is dampening efforts. Yields across the curve are still rising, and the 10-year (-07/32) is yielding 4.93%. The back end of the curve, which is most sensitive to inflation, is faring worst. The 30-year note is down 13 ticks and up to a 5.00% yield. Rate-sensitive areas of the market initially responded well to the jobs data, in that it did not really worsen concerns over Fed tightening. The bond action has particularly affected those areas, though. The Financial sector has dropped to the flat line, the Utilities sector is 0.8% lower, Consumer Discretionary (+0.5%) has lost steam, and homebuilders are giving back ground.DJ30 +13.60 NASDAQ +4.29 SP500 +0.18 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 898/1618/338.4 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1017/1750/204.8 mln

[54anickel]

87. Towns closer to water takeovers

http://www.dailyherald.com/news/dupagestory.asp?id=175180

SPRINGFIELD — In an effort to help suburban homeowners angry over sky-high water bills, lawmakers sent a measure to Gov. Rod Blagojevich that would make it easier for cities and villages to take over private water companies.

The Illinois Senate on Thursday approved legislation that would change the law on government takeovers of private utilities, removing from the process the state agency that regulates water and power companies.

At issue is service provided by Illinois American Water, a foreign-owned private water company that supplies water to 266,000 people in Illinois, including residents of Lisle, Lombard, Mount Prospect, Naperville and Wheaton.

A number of its customers complained to lawmakers and state regulators of spotty service and unreasonable billing, often twice as high as city or village rates.

more...

[InsultComicDog]

89. I forgot, today's the day where they release the fake job reports

Where they invent all these new jobs out of thin air based on the fact that it's springtime...

[ihelpu2see]

110. Can someone explain the REAL Unemployment numbers!!!

I have seen it posted before. My in laws had voted for W and still try to defend him, the only leg they have to stand on is this crazy notion of an under 5% unemployment rate....

So, if some one could spell out in a simple manner how they come about with 4.7% and what the real number is.... I have heard numbers close to 8%...

Thanks

[UpInArms]

112. it's hard to actually "prove" but here's a stab at it

http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost

shows the data before they started really jacking around with it

2000	134881	135049	135055	135549	134954	135235	134777	135016	135167	135485	135573	135888	 	
2001	135870	135734	135808	135424	135235	135003	135106	134408	135004	134615	134253	134055	 	
2002	133468	134319	133894	133976	134417	134053	134045	134474	135185	134914	134225	133952	 

what you see here is the employment for each of those years - notice the decline from 2001 to 2002.

http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost

2000	128672	129364	130492	131525	132505	133125	131684	131590	132348	132908	133268	133156	131720	
2001	130308	130990	131580	132140	132851	133299	131887	131797	132135	132288	132089	131703	131922	
2002	128833	129310	129875	130608	131431	131844	130589	130685	131207	131787	131850	131473	130791	
2003	128804	129080	129564(p)	130278(p)	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 

the same situation - notice these charts stop in 2002 and 2003. From that time to now, we get stuff that looks like this:

http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost

(only option: seasonally adjusted)

Series Id:           LNS14000000

Seasonal Adjusted

Series title:        (Seas) Unemployment Rate

Labor force status:  Unemployment rate

Type of data:        Percent

Age:                 16 years and over

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Annual	
1996	5.6	5.5	5.5	5.6	5.6	5.3	5.5	5.1	5.2	5.2	5.4	5.4	 	
1997	5.3	5.2	5.2	5.1	4.9	5.0	4.9	4.8	4.9	4.7	4.6	4.7	 	
1998	4.6	4.6	4.7	4.3	4.4	4.5	4.5	4.5	4.6	4.5	4.4	4.4	 	
1999	4.3	4.4	4.2	4.3	4.2	4.3	4.3	4.2	4.2	4.1	4.1	4.0	 	
2000	4.0	4.1	4.0	3.8	4.0	4.0	4.0	4.1	3.9	3.9	3.9	3.9	 	
2001	4.2	4.2	4.3	4.4	4.3	4.5	4.6	4.9	5.0	5.3	5.5	5.7	 	
2002	5.7	5.7	5.7	5.9	5.8	5.8	5.8	5.7	5.7	5.7	5.9	6.0	 	
2003	5.8	5.9	5.9	6.0	6.1	6.3	6.2	6.1	6.1	6.0	5.9	5.7	 	
2004	5.7	5.6	5.7	5.5	5.6	5.6	5.5	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.4	 	
2005	5.2	5.4	5.1	5.1	5.1	5.0	5.0	4.9	5.1	4.9	5.0	4.9	 	
2006	4.7	4.8	4.7	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 

[UpInArms]

117. Roland99's post does it much much better than I could

see

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=2213526&mesg_id=2214258

[Roland99]

142. Awwww...I'm flattered.

;)



I REALLY need to put stuff like that in my journal. Well, if it rains this weekend, I know what I'll do!

[ihelpu2see]

120. Thanks, nt

[UpInArms]

92. Commentary: The Strange Case of the American Worker

http://baltimorechronicle.com/2006/040706Monkerud.shtml

When I returned home, California voters rejected a law that would have provided health care for more workers, paid for by employers. The law had passed the legislature and been signed by the governor, but before it could be implemented, corporations convinced voters to place it on the ballot. Strangely enough, rising health care costs were at the top of the list of voter's concerns and they still voted against it.

As French students and workers march to protest a new law that will allow employers to fire employees without cause during their first two years of employment, one might expect American workers to sympathize with them. They don't. When I said I was on the worker's side, one friend criticized me for taking sides instead of considering all sides of the issue. Another minimum-wage friend became agitated when I protested tax cuts for the rich and claimed, "I haven't given up the dream of getting rich someday."

Many of us don't consider ourselves workers, although 80 percent of us work for an hourly wage, which has barely kept up with inflation over the past 30 years. The rich, with our voting support, are doing fine. The top 20 percent account for almost half of consumer spending, while the bottom 80 percent share the remaining 54 percent. Since 1984, 30 million full-time workers have been laid off and forced to take lowering-paying jobs, while the richest one percent of households increased their share of corporate wealth from 39 percent in 1991 to 59 percent today.

<snip>

Americans spout the anti-government beliefs fed to them by hundreds of think tanks supported by the richest of the rich, corporations seeking to avoid government regulation and taxes, churches seeking a return to the Dark Ages, and other right-wing forces that promote agendas to control the country. Every week they release hundreds of op-eds, reports, TV shows, commentaries and well-honed arguments to convince people to identify themselves as independent, laissez faire individualists who oppose any government program to regulate workers trading their time for a paycheck.

It's a wonder that American workers support the 18th century robber baron agenda of the Republican Party, a party that constantly votes against their interests: tax cuts for the rich; judges who support monopolies and almost always rule in favor of corporations; destruction of the environment; deregulation of rules that protect consumers and workers; support for an avaricious military-industrial-pharmaceutical complex; rampant business and Congressional corruption; and a Congress that refuses to raise the minimum wage, while raising its own pay seven times in eight years.

[UpInArms]

94. Cigna: 400 layoffs affect workers in Connecticut

http://www.wtnh.com/Global/story.asp?S=4739954&nav=3YeX

(Bloomfield-AP, Apr. 7, 2006 6:09 AM) _ Insurance giant Cigna is cutting nearly 400 jobs nationwide and some 250 of them involve Connecticut employees.

The health insurance company says it will lay off some 250 employees at its Bristol call center and eliminate six jobs in Bloomfield.

The moves come as Cigna continues to implement a business turnaround.

<snip>

The company says some of the Bristol jobs are no longer needed because of automation.

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

95. 10:53 EST floor getting slippery

Dow 11,158.31 -58.19 (-0.52%)
Nasdaq 2,350.17 -11.00 (-0.47%)
S&P 500 1,301.97 -7.07 (-0.54%)
10-Yr Bond 4.936 +0.43 (+0.88%)

NYSE Volume 478,548,000
Nasdaq Volume 577,600,000

10:25 am : Treasuries have taken the steam out of the equity market's early advance. Each of the major averages have fully erased their opening gains and are now trading below the unchanged mark. The bond market's lack of enthusiasm over the relatively unsurprising employment report has drained the stock market of its initial enthusiasm. Over the last few sessions, the yield on the 10-year has approached, and several times touched, a four-year high of 4.90%. Now, it's standing at 4.94%. Rising market rates continue to serve as a bearish backdrop for the equity market, and they undermine attempts for a spirited, sustained advance.DJ30 -21.62 NASDAQ -4.24 SP500 -3.76 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1198/1450/454.7 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1379/1467/282.1 mln

[ozymandius]

97. little improvement after the hour

Dow 11,161.35 -55.15 (-0.49%)
Nasdaq 2,351.52 -9.65 (-0.41%)
S&P 500 1,302.93 -6.11 (-0.47%)
10-Yr Bond 49.34 +0.41 (+0.84%)
NYSE Volume 653,903,000
Nasdaq Volume 732,109,000

11:00 am : The stock market has continued to deteriorate. At this point, virtually all areas of the market are facing selling pressure. Each of the ten economic sectors are trading on negative turf. The state of the Treasury market is the primary reason for the equity market's decline, but there is another factor that is playing a role. Price declines across the energy complex have catalyzed profit-taking across the Energy sector, and the 1.3% loss that has resulted is weighing heavily on the market. Crude remains near $67.50 per barrel, however, and today's pullback isn't exciting the broader market.DJ30 -65.80 NASDAQ -10.93 SP500 -7.07 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1690/1065/692.2 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1970/997/441.8 mln

[UpInArms]

100. 11:32 EST weekend holding fears settling in?

Dow 11,143.26 -73.24 (-0.65%)
Nasdaq 2,348.48 -12.69 (-0.54%)
S&P 500 1,300.36 -8.68 (-0.66%)
10-Yr Bond 4.934 +0.41 (+0.84%)

NYSE Volume 784,207,000
Nasdaq Volume 852,997,000

11:25 am : It's edged off of its worst levels of the morning, but the market remains well below the flat line. An interesting recovery in the Consumer Discretionary sector has helped the indices. Relative strength in a couple of areas, namely household appliances and motorcycles, has helped that area of the market stick its neck back into positive territory. The fact that energy prices are declining are not having much of an effect on trade (outside of sparking the Energy sector's decline), but they are not hurting things for particularly price-sensitive areas like Discretionary, either. Still, sellers remain in control and the market's few sources of support are not enough to pull the indices higher.DJ30 -46.43 NASDAQ -6.86 SP500 -5.08 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1818/999/828.7 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2139/890/545.9 mln

[ozymandius]

99. delayed PIEHOLE EFFECT

11:33
Dow 11,144.94 -71.56 (-0.64%)
Nasdaq 2,348.97 -12.20 (-0.52%)
S&P 500 1,300.61 -8.43 (-0.64%)
10-Yr Bond 49.34 +0.41 (+0.84%)
NYSE Volume 781,690,000
Nasdaq Volume 851,323,000

11:25 am : It's edged off of its worst levels of the morning, but the market remains well below the flat line. An interesting recovery in the Consumer Discretionary sector has helped the indices. Relative strength in a couple of areas, namely household appliances and motorcycles, has helped that area of the market stick its neck back into positive territory. The fact that energy prices are declining are not having much of an effect on trade (outside of sparking the Energy sector's decline), but they are not hurting things for particularly price-sensitive areas like Discretionary, either. Still, sellers remain in control and the market's few sources of support are not enough to pull the indices higher.DJ30 -46.43 NASDAQ -6.86 SP500 -5.08 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1818/999/828.7 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2139/890/545.9 mln

[UpInArms]

101. 11:34 EST somethin' musta spooked the cattle

Dow 11,129.41 -87.09 (-0.78%)
Nasdaq 2,346.16 -15.01 (-0.64%)
S&P 500 1,299.11 -9.93 (-0.76%)
10-Yr Bond 4.934 +0.41 (+0.84%)

NYSE Volume 797,207,000
Nasdaq Volume 864,815,000

[WhiteTara]

114. they roused momentariy from their hypnotic state

and ran like hell from the nightmare.

[specimenfred1984]

102. Another Wonderful Pump N' Dump

as the Nasdaq now sits on its daily chart support level. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pump here. The sell volume was huge in the mini S&P, I think the funds that rig this market have dumped whatever they wanted to.

As usual, if you are a trader keep tight stops.

[UpInArms]

104. 11:47 EST and DOW down 95

Dow 11,120.92 -95.58 (-0.85%)
Nasdaq 2,341.19 -19.98 (-0.85%)
S&P 500 1,296.89 -12.15 (-0.93%)
10-Yr Bond 4.950 +0.57 (+1.16%) OUCH!

NYSE Volume 874,814,000
Nasdaq Volume 938,890,000

[UpInArms]

105. US court to vacate SEC mutual fund rule

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-07T152946Z_01_N07288151_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-FUNDS-COURT-UPDATE-1.XML

WASHINGTON, April 7 (Reuters) - A federal appeals court has agreed with a challenge to a Securities and Exchange Commission rule requiring more independence among mutual fund directors, a leading business lobbying group said on Friday.

The SEC rule, adopted in 2004 amid trading scandals in the fund industry, requires that chairmen of fund boards and 75 percent of directors have no direct ties to fund managers.

The U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington ruled that the SEC made procedural errors in its handling of the rule. The court said it was going to vacate the rule but gave the SEC 90 days to comment before the court's order takes effect.

The decision was announced by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the nation's largest business lobbying group. The chamber, acting on behalf of large mutual fund groups opposed to the rule, sued the commission, arguing that the SEC made procedural errors in adopting the rule.

Last June, the court first ruled on the chamber's challenge, found flaws in how the rule was developed, and sent it back to the SEC "to address the deficiencies."

...more...

I do believe it's time for the "10 ft pole rule"; as in

"I wouldn't touch their mutual funds with a ten foot pole."

[UpInArms]

108. 12:15 EST numbers and blather

Dow 11,128.70 -87.80 (-0.78%)
Nasdaq 2,341.06 -20.11 (-0.85%)
S&P 500 1,296.82 -12.22 (-0.93%)
10-Yr Bond 4.957 +0.64 (+1.31%)

NYSE Volume 992,842,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,055,314,000

12:00 pm : As had been expected, today's trade is being dictated by the March employment report. Specifically, it's the Treasury market's reaction to it that has set the tone for stocks.

Initially, equity investors responded well to the report. On the surface, particularly in terms of the hourly earnings and non-farm payrolls portions, the data appeared better than expected and reflective of strong economic growth amid contained inflationary pressures. Perhaps most significantly, the slightly smaller than expected 0.2% rise in hourly earnings was a welcomed one. As we've stressed, that element of the report is a focal point, given the mounting concerns over rising resource utilization and wage-based inflation.

When one takes the prior month's revisions into account, however, that conclusion is tempered. Considering the February revisions, payrolls were only a bit above the expected level, and the net increase in hourly earnings matched expectations for March. The data are essentially consistent with expectations. That provided some relief for the stock market; in and of itself, the report featured nothing to undermine the stock market's recently bullish tone. But the Treasury market has taken a divergent interpretation. Its immediate reaction to the data was a choppy one, but upon further digestion bond yields took a turn for the worse. The in-line data essentially provided no sign that the Fed will find reason to end its monetary tightening cycle. Concerns were not exacerbated, but they were not reduced, either. During the week, the yield on the benchmark 10-year note has hovered around, and several times touched, 4.90%. Currently, it's yielding 4.95%. The back end of the curve, which is most sensitive to inflation, is faring worst; the 30-year (-30/32) is now up to a 5.04% yield.

Treasuries continue to occupy the stock market's spotlight, and that market's conditions continue to create a bearish backdrop for stocks. The bond market's deterioration took the steam out of the stock market almost immediately, and it remains a significant challenge to a spirited, sustained advance in the stock market. Hit most heavily have been the rate-sensitive sectors. Financials are down a weighty 0.8%, and Utilities have dropped 1.5%.

The bond market is the primary reason behind the stock market's fall, but there is another factor that is playing a role. Energy prices are giving back some ground today, and their pullbacks have incited some sharp selling across the Energy sector. That area of the market is now levying a 1.5% loss that is weighing heavily on the broader market.

There is little news on the corporate front to deviate the market's attention from the state of the Treasury market. There was an uninspiring earnings report from Research in Motion (RIMM 79.84 -4.54), a good report from Constellation Brands (STZ 24.04 -1.42), and solid same-store sales from Starbuck's (SBUX 38.03 +0.58). Today's news is not much attention as the corporate focus has shifted to the first quarter reporting season that begins Monday. DJ30 -86.05 NASDAQ -18.51 SP500 -11.38 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2019/863/994.3 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2379/716/666.7 mln

[UpInArms]

109. Media shares lower; 120 Time job cuts reported

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B9DC60EF8%2DDE6A%2D415D%2DB98B%2DC8D53CBAE050%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -Most media shares were lower Friday, in conjunction with a sluggish broader market.

<snip>

Time Warner (TWX 16.64, -0.05, -0.3% ) was about flat at $16.64. The New York Post reported Friday that the Time Inc. unit will cut about 120 jobs, primarily back-office and production positions.

...more...

[ozymandius]

113. 12:54 - no faeries, just carrion birds arrive

Dow 11,147.18 -69.32 (-0.62%)
Nasdaq 2,345.13 -16.04 (-0.68%)
S&P 500 1,298.85 -10.19 (-0.78%)
10-Yr Bond 49.61 +0.68 (+1.39%)
NYSE Volume 1,132,044,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,188,615,000

12:30 pm : The yield on the 10-year is moving closer to 5.0%. Right now it's at its highest point of the session (4.96%) Accordingly, stocks continue to suffer. There are few areas of support; only three of the S&P 500's 139 industry groups have managed to gain 1% or more. Specialty consulting services is faring best. It's up 1.6%. Home entertainment software (+1.2%) and application software (+1.1%) are the other two groups that have gained more than 1%. On the other side of the aisle, the S&P's worst performing group is the diversified metals and mining industry. It's lost close to 4%.DJ30 -69.00 NASDAQ -16.27 SP500 -10.17 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2065/847/1.11 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2478/658/752.4 mln

[ozymandius]

115. Carrion birds have weak stomachs.

12:59
Dow 11,134.69 -81.81 (-0.73%)
Nasdaq 2,342.70 -18.47 (-0.78%)
S&P 500 1,297.60 -11.44 (-0.87%)
10-Yr Bond 49.55 +0.62 (+1.27%)
NYSE Volume 1,150,968,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,206,035,000

[specimenfred1984]

119. President Commits Treason, No Market Mention

absolutely no mention in the media I've been reading on how the POTUS committing treason will affect the markets.

We live in an amazingly corrupt era.

[ozymandius]

121. Dow back to -80+ and the 10yr creeping closer to 5%

2:00
Dow 11,134.29 -82.21 (-0.73%)
Nasdaq 2,339.31 -21.86 (-0.93%)
S&P 500 1,296.68 -12.36 (-0.94%)
10-Yr Bond 49.75 +0.82 (+1.68%)
NYSE Volume 1,348,568,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,411,580,000

[Roland99]

126. 30-yr on the rise, too

30 Yr Bond 5.05 +0.09
10 Yr Bond 4.97 +0.08

[UpInArms]

124. Economy is an election issue again (LOL!)

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B0D443F72%2D0D97%2D4B20%2DB991%2D32BB29770737%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw&print=true&dist=printTop

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The state of the economy looks to be an issue in the fall elections again this year.

Given that the jobless rate has moved below 5% and profits are at record levels, this may seem odd. Inflation is calm and growth has been good.

A quick glance shows an economy that's rarely been healthier.

But if things are so good, why do the Republicans need to try so hard to convince us?

Despite the favorable economic numbers, a majority of the American public is dissatisfied.

In the latest Wall Street Journal poll from mid-March, 62% of people said the country was on the wrong path, while 58% disapproved of President Bush's handling of the economy. Bush's handling of Hurricane Katrina got better marks than his handling of the economy.

Why is there such a disconnect between what the numbers say about the economy and what the people feel? Is it merely a question of public relations, as the Bush White House seems to think?

Do people just not know how good they have it? Or do the rosy statistics mask pockets of economic hardship?

...more...

Yeehaw! Someone's at least asking those questions!

[Roland99]

129. "A quick glance shows an economy that's rarely been healthier."

McClellan's writing for MarketWatch now?

:yoiks:

[UpInArms]

131. Hey Roland99!

I guess I'm what now considered a dollar-aire!

:bounce:

[Roland99]

141. /me peaks in wallet...../me breaks down into tears.

;)

[54anickel]

147. Must be sitting on Shrub's perch

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-03-21T155602Z_01_WAT005114_RTRIDST_0_BUSH-ECONOMY-URGENT.XML

"From my perch, the economy appears to be strong and getting stronger," Bush said.

[UpInArms]

130. If the economy's so good, why are consumers so worried?

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B357791BF%2D64E4%2D496D%2DBE99%2DD77C136D9A58%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Jobs are growing. Unemployment is down to 4.7 %, almost a five-year low. Manufacturing is up. Productivity is robust. Earnings are rising impressively. So is personal income.

If the economy is so good -- as all these signs, and more, say it is--why do so many people feel so bad?

Well, dig a little deeper into those much-watched surveys of consumer confidence, as measured by the University of Michigan and the Conference Board. What they show is that the consumer's confidence in the here-and-now is fairly solid, but expectations of how the economy will unfold in the future remain soft.

Bear with us a moment, while we toss out some telling stats:

<snip>

This glaring gap, between confidence in today and concern about tomorrow, is absolutely extraordinary -- and continues to grow.

...more...

[bain_sidhe]

161. "pockets of economic hardship"?????

Well, if "pockets" can be bigger than the entire rest of the garment, I suppose...

[UpInArms]

132. 2:42 EST moving up in anticipation of that Consumer Spending Number

Dow 11,163.91 -52.59 (-0.47%)
Nasdaq 2,344.55 -16.62 (-0.70%)
S&P 500 1,300.80 -8.24 (-0.63%)
10-Yr Bond 4.969 +0.76 (+1.55%)

NYSE Volume 1,548,660,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,554,176,000

2:30 pm : As we've mentioned, a lot of the market's attention in the weeks ahead will be focused on the first quarter earnings front. Per usual, Alcoa (AA 32.65 +0.49) will get things started. Its report will be delivered following Monday's closing bell. Here is a look at what else is in store next week. On Tuesday morning, Genentech (DNA 79.35 +0.06) will report. Wednesday's docket is a bit busier, and it features Circuit City (CC 24.65 -0.03), Gannett (GCI 59.70 -1.22), and Harley Davidson (HDI 52.23 -1.09) before the bell and Advanced Micro (AMD 34.07 -0.63) after it. General Electric (GE 34.24 -0.27) is Thursday's headliner; the company will release its results in early trade. Ahead of the following week's heavy earnings calendar, Friday's is a blank one. Separately, the stock market remains near its lowest levels of the session; the 10-year is yielding 4.97%. DJ30 -85.25 NASDAQ -20.29 SP500 -11.61 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2080/916/1.49 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2615/607/1.07 bln

[ozymandius]

133. fifteen minutes before Witching Hour

2:44
Dow 11,156.78 -59.72 (-0.53%)
Nasdaq 2,344.17 -17.00 (-0.72%)
S&P 500 1,300.15 -8.89 (-0.68%)
10-Yr Bond 49.69 +0.76 (+1.55%)
NYSE Volume 1,523,608,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,560,553,000

[ozymandius]

134. Beyond Peak Oil: Gold, Aluminum, Copper too

Kaboom: Peak copper, superspike prices, oil and US debt
by Jerome a Paris

-cut past charts and reference data-

Let's summarise:

strong underlying demand growth from a buoyant world economy (expressed, in this case, in decreasing stocks rather than increased apparent demand);

producers unwilling or unable to produce more, and faced with increasing production costs;

short term disruptions like weather events or strikes that cause major price volatility;

financial investors reinforcing the trends in the expectation of more to come.
Sounds familiar? It is. The above 4 points are absolutely true for oil, and it seems that the same dynamics are at play.

more here

[TrogL]

135. Loonie Watch

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day:



Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.H06&v=s

Current TSE



Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2006-02-27 Monday, February 27 0.87581 USD
2006-02-28 Tuesday, February 28 0.878812 USD
2006-03-01 Wednesday, March 1 0.879894 USD
2006-03-02 Thursday, March 2 0.883392 USD
2006-03-03 Friday, March 3 0.880902 USD
2006-03-06 Monday, March 6 0.877116 USD
2006-03-07 Tuesday, March 7 0.871992 USD
2006-03-08 Wednesday, March 8 0.863931 USD
2006-03-09 Thursday, March 9 0.862589 USD
2006-03-10 Friday, March 10 0.861698 USD
2006-03-13 Monday, March 13 0.860882 USD
2006-03-14 Tuesday, March 14 0.865951 USD
2006-03-15 Wednesday, March 15 0.865576 USD
2006-03-16 Thursday, March 16 0.866551 USD
2006-03-17 Friday, March 17 0.863036 USD
2006-03-20 Monday, March 20 0.860067 USD
2006-03-21 Tuesday, March 21 0.85859 USD
2006-03-22 Wednesday, March 22 0.858295 USD
2006-03-23 Thursday, March 23 0.857854 USD
2006-03-24 Friday, March 24 0.856531 USD
2006-03-27 Monday, March 27 0.855798 USD
2006-03-28 Tuesday, March 28 0.854993 USD
2006-03-29 Wednesday, March 29 0.853097 USD
2006-03-30 Thursday, March 30 0.859993 USD
2006-03-31 Friday, March 31 0.856898 USD
2006-04-03 Monday, April 3 0.853388 USD
2006-04-04 Tuesday, April 4 0.857486 USD
2006-04-05 Wednesday, April 5 0.860659 USD
2006-04-06 Thursday, April 6 0.867152 USD
2006-04-07 Friday, April 7 0.872296 USD



Current values

Last trade 0.8734 Change +0.0047 (+0.54%)
Previous Close 0.8689 Open 0.8734
Low 0.8721 High 0.8760


Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends this week’s rally and is testing resistance marked by the reaction high, which crosses at .8710. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week’s rally, the 62% retracement level of the March-April decline crossing at .8739 is the next upside target. Overnight action sets the stage or a higher opening in early-day session trading.

Analysis

The loonie got a big boost yesterday, no idea why. Today it opened high but it's drifting a bit.

[ozymandius]

136. The Witching Hour cometh.

3:00
Dow 11,155.58 -60.92 (-0.54%)
Nasdaq 2,343.71 -17.46 (-0.74%)
S&P 500 1,299.65 -9.39 (-0.72%)
10-Yr Bond 49.63 +0.70 (+1.43%)
NYSE Volume 1,619,746,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,619,279,000

[UpInArms]

140. Sun Micro cuts 200 jobs in high-end server group

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BBDB74FB0%2DFF00%2D4289%2DBB8F%2D2ADDD7E96493%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Sun Microsystems Inc. (SUNW 5.28, +0.04, +0.8% ) said Friday it had cut 200 jobs from its scalable systems group (SSG), the division responsible for servers that run on its Sparc chip architecture. In a statement, Sun said that the cuts accounted for about 7% of the SSG division. The company said that despite the cuts, it still intends on expanding its Sparc hardware and software development. Sun shares rose 3 cents to $5.27 in late trading after the announcement.

[ozymandius]

145. Bleeding like the Good Sir Knight.

3:25
Dow 11,128.21 -88.29 (-0.79%)
Nasdaq 2,339.37 -21.80 (-0.92%)
S&P 500 1,296.53 -12.51 (-0.96%)
10-Yr Bond 49.63 +0.70 (+1.43%)

3:00 pm : They remain well into the red, but the major averages have somewhat improved. At this point, the Dow is faring better than its counterparts. As we discussed earlier in the week, with the interest rate environment growing less friendly for the stock market, the outperformance of large cap stocks is not unusual as they tend to exhibit relative strength when rising rates pique concerns about a slowdown in economic activity. To that point, small caps, as measured by the Russell 2000 Index, are underperforming the Dow, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the S&P 400 Mid Cap Average. The Russell 200 is presently down 1.2%. For comparison, the Dow has lost 0.5%, and the S&P 500 has given back 0.7% DJ30 -55.23 NASDAQ -17.30 SP500 -8.95 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2064/936/1.61 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2624/610/1.17 bln
NYSE Volume 1,733,848,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,727,106,000

[ozymandius]

146. updated blather

3:30 pm : Heading towards the close of trade, the market is near at its lowest levels of the session. Each of the ten economic sectors are still on negative turf, and each of the three major indices are registering considerable losses. The Treasury market, meanwhile, has backed off of its worst levels, but it still remains a dismal backdrop for stocks. Here's a glimpse at next week's economic calendar and potential catalysts for that market. Monday and Tuesday feature no data. On Wednesday, investors will receive the February Trade Balance, Crude Inventories, and the March Treasury Budget. Thursday is the heaviest day for data. Business Inventories (Feb.), Import and Export Prices (Mar.) Retail Sales (Mar.), Initial Claims, and the U of M Sentiment Report (Apr.) are on the docket. Rounding out the week are March Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production reports. DJ30 -96.70 NASDAQ -22.97 SP500 -13.77 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2049/970/1.75 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2599/654/1.28 bln

[54anickel]

149. Lookie at them there yields!

10-yr Bond 49.63 +0.70 (+1.43%)
30-yr Bond 50.38 +0.78 (+1.57%)

[ozymandius]

148. moving toward the close - redness, swelling of losses

3:45
Dow 11,125.65 -90.85 (-0.81%)
Nasdaq 2,338.45 -22.72 (-0.96%)
S&P 500 1,295.65 -13.39 (-1.02%)
10-Yr Bond 49.63 +0.70 (+1.43%)
NYSE Volume 1,868,852,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,847,767,000

[ozymandius]

150. Snotty McClellan's replacement? Maybe Snowjob's too?

[54anickel]

151. More Debt, not Less

http://www.kitco.com/ind/VanEeden/apr072006.html

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Perhaps less widely publicized, but potentially far more important, is the increase in long-term US interest rates. The benchmark 10-year Treasury fell this week causing the 10-year interest rate to rise to 4.971% - a four year high.

Why are US bonds falling, causing interest rates to rise? Because if the Chinese allow their currency to appreciate against the dollar it implies reduced purchases of US Treasuries by China. Japan has already curtailed its purchases of US Treasuries and, in fact, Japans holding of US Treasuries is busy declining.

The mechanism by which China and Japan have been supporting the US dollar is to buy US Treasuries instead of selling US dollars into foreign exchange markets. If they are forced by Washington to let the dollar fall, it means they will have to buy less US Treasuries; hence, a falling US dollar will go hand-in-hand with rising US interest rates, exactly what has been happening recently - and as predicted in these pages.

Note, however, that it is not short-term interest rates, over which the Federal Reserve has considerable control that we are looking at; it is longer term interest rates, which are set by the market, that will tell us what is going on.

An aspect of the current situation that is being ignored is that US government debt is about to explode. Rising interest rates mean the interest burden on US debt is rising. But, higher interest rates will put a drag on the economy and I do not, for a minute, believe that the current jobless economic expansion is going to last. I am afraid that a more realistic expectation is a slowdown in economic activity, which will lead to reduced tax receipts by the US government. In addition, there is no reason, whatsoever, to think that the US government is about to curtail its spending; rather, if the economy does slow down, there is some reason to believe the government will try to stimulate it by increasing its deficit spending. Thus we are looking at reduced income for the US Treasury in the future and an increase in government expenditures and a higher interest burden on the burgeoning outstanding Treasury debt.

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[54anickel]

152. Intermediate-term Outlook for the US Stock Market

http://www.kitco.com/ind/saville/apr072006.html

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A comparison of the above chart with a chart of the nominal S&P500 Index will highlight one of the major risks of betting against the stock market. The risk, for those who attempt to profit from the secular bear trend by taking-on positions that require a fall in nominal prices in order to be profitable, is that there will be sufficient inflation to prevent the market from falling by much in nominal dollar terms even while it tanks in real terms.

We have no doubt that the S&P500 Index is immersed in a secular bear market that will continue for another 5-15 years, but, as we keep emphasizing, secular bear markets are about declining VALUATIONS; they do not necessarily involve declining prices. It is extremely likely that the price/earnings ratio of the S&P500 will drop to 10 or lower at some point over the next several years, but this fall in the P/E ratio could be driven more by a rise in earnings than a fall in prices. And if you think it is unlikely that the S&P500's earnings will rise by much over the next several years, consider that the composition of the senior stock indices will change. In particular, if commodities are in a secular bull market then 10 years from now oil and other commodity-related stocks -- the stocks of companies that are likely to experience very strong earnings growth for many years to come -- will probably make up 30%-40% of the market-cap-weighted S&P500 Index.

Our own expectations as to how far the S&P500's nominal value will fall over the next several years have certainly been dampened over the past 12 months by the amount of inflation that has occurred. For example, at this time last year we were expecting a test of the October-2002 lows by the final quarter of 2006, but we now expect this year's decline to end at, and the next intermediate-term advance to begin from, well above the October-2002 lows. Our thinking is that this year's decline will take the senior US stock indices down by 20%-30% from whatever peak they make over the coming weeks.

[54anickel]

153. Run Away From US Stocks?

http://www.fallstreet.com/apr606.php

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What can be said is that US stocks are in one of the most boring bull markets ever (call it a cyclical bull inside of a secular bear if you want, but the longevity of this rally means it is a bull nonetheless). And while some would argue that boring is good because it means the markets haven’t peaked, sometimes boring is just boring.

What Are The Stock Bulls Afraid of?

The easiest way to figure out where a bull is raging is to ask yourself what is in short supply. During the 1990s cutting edge technology products and stock shares were in short supply and, after the 2000 stock market bust, real estate was in short supply. As for what is in short supply today, look to oil, silver, copper, sugar, and railway capacity. On this last item, a few charts will suffice.

The potential problem with commodities and transportation services being in short supply is that they are economic necessities (the same can not be said about tulip bulbs and Intel’s MMX technology). If a construction outfit can’t afford materials stuff doesn’t built, if companies don’t pass rising commoditiy and energy prices along to consumers margins get squeezed, and if an electric utility raises rates because the cost of shipping coal has tripled customers either pay up or declare bankruptcy (if they can), Suffice to say, a bull market in economic necessities raises the specter of a slow down in the broader economy. No wonder equity investors are acting a little timid.

snip>

Yes, despite its unexciting demeanor the major US stock indices have managed to present the appearance of being in a bull market. But no, new 5-year highs do not suggest that record highs are around the corner. With equities rising at a painfully slow pace and other non-equity based investment vehicles becoming more attractive with every Fed rate hike, today’s US stock bull lacks the ingredients needed to trigger the greater fool phenomenon. In other words, the boring rally in US stocks since February 2004 has simply been boring, and doesn’t portend a mad rush into stocks.

As for the ‘necessities bull’, because it is being driven by foreign demand for commodities, currency issues, geopolitics, and bottlenecks that can not be fixed quickly, it can remain in play even if the major US stock markets crash. In fact, if the necessities bull doesn’t derail soon expect just that.

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[54anickel]

154. Is our democracy an onion skin?

http://www.bangornews.com/news/templates/?a=131667

George Washington warned that "overgrown military establishments" are "inauspicious to liberty." President Eisenhower again warned that "the military-industrial complex" threatens "our liberties" and our "democratic processes." For decades these admonitions have been ignored by our government and overlooked by the public. Today, we have, not a colonial, but a militaristic empire with more than 700 bases in practically every country in the world, the very thing that Washington and Eisenhower had warned us about.

What we think of as our democracy is really like the thin, fragile, papery outer layer of an onion. And as one penetrates deeper into the layers any semblance of democracy quickly disappears.

The collusion between the military establishment and the corporations that contract to support it - not only in supplying arms and equipment, but in constructing and maintaining the bases around the world - dominates our national government; and the corporate control of our news media manages to keep the public in the dark as to the true scope of this huge establishment. As Charley Reese once wrote: "The United States is without a doubt the most self-deluded nation on Earth, and that nest of liars who occupy Washington work full time to maintain the delusions."

By directing much of the nation's production into military hardware and supplies, the establishment can expend labor power without seriously improving the human condition and not only guarantee the continuation of their oligarchy but, at the same time, can "starve the beast" - that is, see to it that no money will be available to fund federal social programs such as the Social Security Administration and Medicare.

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[54anickel]

155. USA-oil-dollar global crisis: A European think-tank reads the world

End of M3 publication, monetary crisis in Iceland/Brazil/New-Zealand/Turkey, collapse of Arab Stock Exchange Markets, 4% fall of the dollar in just a month, Gulf countries’ switching from petrodollars to euros, US housing bubble burst, historical records in gold prices reaching $ 600/ounce, …

…. a European independent think-tank saw it all coming: Leap/E2020.

http://www.newropeans-magazine.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3755&Itemid=85

As I already wondered in my January 16 article “Le monde lit-il Europe 2020?”, this unusual European think-tank either has a unique capacity of anticipation or is read by this world’s decision-makers… Now Europe 2020 goes into the economical and financial sphere, creating immediate global thrills. Indeed as early as February 15th, the monthly confidential letter of this European think-tank (LEAP/E2020) announced that an international political, economic and monetary crisis was to be triggered in the course of the last week of March 2006. The public announcement summing up this position toured the world, raising virulent criticisms of course, and vivid gratefulness for having opened a debate considered a healthy one.

The publication revealed in particular a major fact, unknown from big media and the majority of financial analysts: the US Fed’s decision to stop the publication of a macro-economic indicator, one essential to assess the dollar’s and global economy’s health, the M3 indicator. Leap/E2020 analysed this information as a decision to monetarize the US debt and to hide the triggering of a dollar-collapse process.

« This last week of March 2006 will be the turning-point of a number of critical developments, resulting in an acceleration of all the factors leading to a major crisis … the decision of the American Federal Reserve to stop publishing M3 figures will catalyse all the tensions, weaknesses and imbalances accumulated since more than a decade throughout the international system … with this decision, the United States is undertaking not to refund their debt, or more exactly to refund it in "monkey currency" » (GEAB 2, February 15, 2006)

As predicted by Leap/E2020, and despite doubts expressed by many professionals and a resounding silence from the part of all big media, on March 23, 2006, the US Federal Reserve stopped M3 publication, the dollar started its descent and the crisis began to expand to various emerging monetary and financial markets (Arab Stock Exchange Markets, Iceland, New-Zealand, Hungary, Brazil…), bringing the dollar down by 3% one week later, in a context of speculative currency attacks.

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[ozymandius]

156. final thud

Have a great weekend folks!

Ozy :hi:


Dow 11,120.04 -96.46 (-0.86%)
Nasdaq 2,339.02 -22.15 (-0.94%)
S&P 500 1,295.50 -13.54 (-1.03%)
10-Yr Bond 49.63 +0.70 (+1.43%)
NYSE Volume 2,082,378,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,033,170,000

4:20 pm : Not surprisingly, Friday's equity trade was dictated by the March employment report. More specifically, it was the Treasury market's reaction to it that set the stage for stocks.

Equity investors responded well to the data. On the surface, particularly in terms of the hourly earnings and non-farm payrolls figures, the data appeared better than expected and reflective of strong economic growth amid contained inflationary pressures. As we had stressed, the stock market paid particular attention to the hourly earnings component. Given the mounting concerns over rising resource utilization and wage-based inflation, that (and also the unemployment rate) was in focus. The slightly smaller than expected 0.2% rise in that series was a welcomed one, and it helped spark some early buying.

Taking the revisions to February's figures into account, however, that conclusion is somewhat diminished. Considering those revisions, non-farm payrolls were only a bit above the expected level, and the net increase in hourly earnings matched expectations for March. Thus, the data were essentially consistent with expectations. In and of itself, the report featured nothing to undermine the stock market's recently bullish tone. A lack of negative surprise caused the stock market to breathe a sigh of relief. That was stifled, though.

The Treasury market had a very divergent reaction to the data, and it took the stock market down with it. For Treasury trader, the in-line data essentially provided no evidence that the Fed will be inclined to end its monetary tightening cycle. While inflationary concerns were not exacerbated today, they were not allayed, either. Exacerbating conditions was speculation that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates earlier than previously thought. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note had been pushing, and it several times touched, 4.90% all week. Today, it tore through that level and flirted with 5.00%. The especially inflation-sensitive back end of the curve fared worst; the 30-year (-28/32) was yielding 5.03% at the close of equity trade. As we continue to note, Treasuries remain in the stock market's spotlight. The conditions within it continue to serve as a bearish backdrop for stocks, and they remain a significant challenge to a spirited, sustainable advance in the stock market.
Rate-sensitive sectors took a lot of heat. The influential Financial sector levied a 1.0% loss, and Utilities dropped more than 1.5%. They weren't the only sectors to suffer, though. Selling was broad-based and spared few areas of the market.

The bond market was the primary reason behind the stock market's fall, but there was another factor that played a considerable role. Commodities have commanded a lot of attention over the past week. Several metals have hit or approached historic highs, and many of them faced profit-taking today. Gold was a particular case. It hit a 25-year high of $600 per troy ounce yesterday, and declined alongside several other metals today. The dollar's strength, borne out of expectations for more rate hikes, may have been a catalyst for the consolidation. The Materials sector, on a related note, experienced some profit-locking. On the energy side of the commodity aisle, prices across the complex gave back some ground today. Outside of fostering a weighty 1.7% loss in the Energy sector, the energy price declines had little effect upon trade.

Today's corporate front provided investors with little distraction from the state of the Treasury market. There were earnings reports from Research in Motion (RIMM 79.74 -4.64) and Constellation Brands (STZ 23.99 -1.47), same-store sales results from Starbucks (SBUX 37.81 +0.36), and a management change and Ford (F 7.60 -0.05). The news took a backseat to the jobs data and bond yields, and even more so as the corporate focus has shifted to the first quarter earnings season that commences Monday. DJ30 -96.46 NASDAQ -22.15 SP500 -13.54 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2085/952/2.02 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2664/608/1.53 bln

[Roland99]

157. Dang. That's a Friday Flop!

[AnneD]

159. Drinks are one me....

I rotated my sofa cushions and I am awash in coinage....


:beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer:

[UpInArms]

160. Thanks AnneD!

I think I'll join in with a couple of those!

:beer::beer::beer::beer:

Have a great weekend everyone!

:hi:

[UpInArms]

162. US economic downturn would claim victims across globe

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B1B81A84F%2D8388%2D4E34%2D9FB5%2D3AF455D2EDA6%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

CLEVELAND (MarketWatch) -- Every recession is different in nature and a recession in the near future in the U.S. - though it appears hardly likely at the moment - would claim a different set of victims than recessions in the past.

A severe downturn - a recession is conventionally defined as two consecutive quarters of declining output - would affect a broad set of industries and people, including: union workers, home builders, recent home buyers, Chinese companies and their employees, along with investors in energy stocks and securities from developing countries.

It is important to note that many economists think the U.S. is in a lengthy period of expansion that will last another five years or so. Most also expect the global economy to grow strongly in the years ahead, as emerging market economies such as China continue to expand.

But the U.S. economy has in recent years been a key driver of global growth, and a sharp downturn would certainly have an impact around the world.

Among the factors that could push the U.S. economy into a downturn: The Federal Reserve could fail in its effort to slow the economy just enough to relieve inflationary pressures without triggering a recession.

In fact, most of the Fed's major credit tightening moves in the last sixty years have ended in recession, often because an energy crunch, war or terrorist attack occurred just as the Fed was at a delicate stage in the interest raising process.

Possible triggers for a recession next year, besides a miscalculation by the Fed, include an oil supply interruption, a precipitous drop in inflated home prices, or a crisis in foreign confidence that slowed the inflow of investment dollars the U.S. has come to depend on, driving long-term interest rates sharply higher.

...more...

Ruh-roh - they are starting to see the writing on the wall :eyes:

[UpInArms]

163. After the Bell: Dominion Homes 1Q home sales fall 24% to 475

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B9406EBB0%2D0107%2D4975%2D8B35%2D9AE35ABA5976%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Dominion Homes Inc. (DHOM 9.46, -0.20, -2.1% ) after Friday's closing bell said it has sold 475 homes during the first quarter, down 24% from 626 homes during the same period last year. The company closed 315 homes during the quarter, compared with 478 homes last year.