STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 11 April

[ozymandius]

Tuesday April 11, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 1014 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1937 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1637 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1598
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 10, 2006

Dow... 11,141.33 +21.29 (+0.19%)
Nasdaq... 2,333.27 -5.75 (-0.25%)
S&P 500... 1,296.60 +1.10 (+0.08%)
Gold future... 601.80 +9.10 (+1.51%)
30-Year Bond 5.04% -0.00 (-0.04%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.96% UNCH (UNCH)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Rob Kirby

CHAOS KNOWN AS VOLATILITY

With the commodities bull market s-t-r-e-t-c-h-i-n-g o-u-t, it’s continuing to make its mark on investors' psyches. While the price movement for commodities in general has been “up” – each commodity has taken its own particular path to higher price; some ascending more or less up in a straight line, like homes. Other commodities – like precious metals – their prices tend to move ahead a few steps, and then take a couple of steps back. More often than not, Jane and Joe investor attribute this back and forth or see-saw price movement as “increased volatility.”

-cut-

A Few Concluding Points

Put simply, volatility is a positive measure that marks a change in price over a specified time period. Whether or not an investor benefits from an increase in volatility depends on how they are positioned. Increases in volatility may arise equally from positive or adverse price movements in underlying commodities or markets.

Instruments most often used to trade volatility are generally viewed as sophisticated. The strategies outlined above are typically practiced by sophisticated, well capitalized investment professionals and profits or losses can be magnified greatly through the leverage that is inherent in these products.

While any and all investors benefit from an increased understanding of the investment landscape, trading in these instruments is not recommended for novices.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Oil surges through $69 on Iran, Nigeria concerns

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Oil surged through $69 on Tuesday, with London Brent crude hitting record-highs, on increased tensions between the United States and Iran over Tehran's nuclear aims and Nigerian supply disruptions.

-cut-

Oil has risen more than 13 percent this year, prolonging a rally that began at the start of 2002 with oil at $20 as cash-rich investors inspired by geopolitical tensions buy up commodities. Gold reached its highest since December 1980 on Tuesday.

"Concern about Iran never ceases to push prices," said Gerard Burg, minerals and energy economist at the National Australia Bank. "The market is not really factoring in the true impact of military action but the mere mention of it sends prices higher."

more...

[ozymandius]

3. Gas Costs Expected to Be High This Summer

WASHINGTON - Summer driving will be expensive, with gasoline costs likely to stay high after jumping nearly 20 cents over the past two weeks.

The cost of gasoline averages $2.68 nationwide for a gallon of regular. Some analysts say motorists may pay $3 a gallon this summer if there are unusual disruptions in supply.

The Energy Department was to release its summer outlook for motor fuel prices at a news conference Tuesday.

Prices at the pump have been climbing since February when the cost of regular grade gasoline averaged $2.25 a gallon. The average price of $2.68 a gallon last week is 40 cents a gallon higher than a year ago.

more...

[UpInArms]

14. EIA: Summer Retail Gas Prices to Average $2.62 per gallon

8:32 AM ET 4/11/06 EIA: RETAIL GAS PRICES SEEN AVERAGING $2.40/GALLON IN 2007

8:31 AM ET 4/11/06 EIA: RETAIL GAS PRICES TO AVERAGE $2.50/GALLON IN 2006

8:30 AM ET 4/11/06 EIA: PHASE-OUT OF GAS ADDITIVE MTBE TO PRESSURE PRICES

8:30 AM ET 4/11/06 EIA: HIGHER CRUDE PRICES TO DRIVE UP GASOLINE PRICES

8:30 AM ET 4/11/06 EIA: RETAIL DIESEL PRICE TO AVERAGE $2.62/GALLON THIS SUMMER

8:30 AM ET 4/11/06 EIA: PUMP PRICES SEEN 25 CENTS HIGHER THAN LAST SUMMER

8:30 AM ET 4/11/06 EIA: SUMMER RETAIL GAS PRICES TO AVERAGE $2.62 PER GALLON

Weren't they a bit low on last year's estimate?

[UpInArms]

15. EIA: Summer retail gas prices to rise 13.7% to $2.62/gallon

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B3AF66CCA%2DB0C9%2D429A%2DA9AE%2D7D71D183961E%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Retail gasoline prices are expected to rise 25 cents, or 13.7 percent, this summer to average $2.62 per gallon, according to a short-term energy outlook released Tuesday by the Energy Information Administration. Retail diesel prices are also expected to average $2.62 per gallon, an 8.6 percent increase over the previous summer. Gas prices are likely to be pressured by higher crude oil prices and the phase out of the leading gasoline additive methyl tertiary butyl ether, known as MTBE.

[AnneD]

57. In Houston....

gas is already up to $2.59-$2.69. I use a prepaid card at Citgo and pay $2.54. There is no cheaper gas in the city. I think we will exceed those projections:eyes:

[WhiteTara]

62. I wonder what that means for California

our gas right now is $2.79 at the discount stations and $2.85 at the brands. Yikes!

[UpInArms]

63. a 13% rise would mean $3.15 to $3.22 per gallon

:hide:

[WhiteTara]

66. okay, I didn't really want to know!

that is way too scary! I think I'll stay home some more
:hide:

[Roland99]

64. It's *ALREADY* at $2.69 (according to the LA Times)

[RawMaterials]

68. 2.69 in south west ohio n/m

[AnneD]

78. I know we have refineries here in Houston

and I know there are some in Ca....SO, if they already at $2.69 at these centers, It will get even worse than they are saying. I think this is a boiled frog thing.

[Roland99]

84. Well, it's hit $2.86 here in Louisville, KY (highest since Katrina)

[12345]

86. $2.71 western nc, what's going to bring it back down?

bombing iran
summer driving season
hurricane season
instability in nigeria

maybe a recession...

[UpInArms]

12. Oil charges through $69 toward new record

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=uri:2006-04-11T105737Z_01_SP314355_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-OIL.xml

LONDON (Reuters) - U.S. oil powered toward its $70 a barrel record on Tuesday, fueled by a mix of investment fund money, strong demand in the United States and China and threats to supply from OPEC producers Nigeria, Iran and Iraq.

London Brent crude oil set a new all-time high of $69.70. U.S. WTI crude swept to $69.45, and analysts said it was only a matter of time before last August's record fell.

"It is pretty clear that we can break $70 without too much problem," said Deborah White, an analyst at SG CIB in Paris.

"We have been getting a massive injection (of investment fund money) in the energy markets. It is very clear from the price action that they haven't stopped."

Oil has climbed 13 percent since Jan 1, extending a rally that began at the start of 2002 with oil at $20 a barrel. Investment money has poured into commodities. Gold hit a 25-year high and silver set a 23-year peak on Tuesday.

The world's economies are racing ahead despite energy costs at their highest in real terms for a quarter of a century. U.S. oil contracts for June onwards are already trading above $70, suggesting few traders expect the price to come off suddenly.

...more...

[UpInArms]

37. Crude futures inch closer to record levels (@ $69.10 bbl)

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B18CFCA4D%2D3970%2D4FCD%2DB401%2DD20796D2E110%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- May crude climbed 36 cents to $69.10 a barrel in early trading, touching a high of $69.25. The contract hasn't traded at levels this high since Feb. 1, and the front-month contract for crude futures hasn't traded at these levels since Sept. 1. Crude's front-month contract reached a record intraday high of $70.85 and a record intraday close of $69.81 on Aug. 30. "Increased political tensions between Venezuela and the United States, ongoing concerns toward Iranian and Nigerian threats to supply flow, even the introduction of a new crude-oil ETF instrument had its adherents as the causality of new speculative buying," said John Kilduff, an analyst at Fimat USA.

[54anickel]

42. Oil-backed ETF makes US debut

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/a59ff090-c8b7-11da-b642-0000779e2340.html

The first fund to be listed in the US to track the price of oil made its market debut on Monday on the American Stock Exchange.

The United States Oil Fund, an oil-backed exchange traded fund, will aim to tap into the growing appetite for commodity investments.

ETFs are designed to provide a cheap and direct alternative to investing directly into the underlying commodity. Instead of buying the physical oil, investors buy units in the ETF which represent an underlying barrel of oil.

The United States Oil Fund tracks the price of the West Texas Intermediate, which is a premium crude oil traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

snip>

The Brent oil ETF launched on the London Stock Exchange by ETF Securities last year is in the process of being overhauled in order to widen its investment appeal after a sluggish start. So far, only gold-backed ETFs have attracted reasonable investment demand.

more...

[UpInArms]

83. May Crude closes @ $68.98 bbl - May NatGas @ $6.908 mln btus

2:59 PM ET 4/11/06 FRONT-MONTH CONTRACT FOR CRUDE FUTURES ENDS AT A 7-MO HIGH

2:59 PM ET 4/11/06 MAY CRUDE UP 24C TO CLOSE AT $68.98/BRL AFTER $69.25 HIGH

2:49 PM ET 4/11/06 MAY NATURAL GAS UP 2.6C TO CLOSE AT $6.908/MLN BTUS

[ozymandius]

4. D.R. Horton quarterly orders rise

NEW YORK (Reuters) - D.R. Horton Inc.(NYSE:DHI - news), the No. 1 U.S. home builder, on Tuesday said the number of quarterly orders rose about 10 percent as strength in almost all regions offset weakness in the Midwest.

-cut-

The value of the new orders rose 7 percent to $4.4 billion.

The U.S. housing market has been losing strength since last fall as the Federal Reserve's 15 incremental interest-rate hikes over the past year and a half have affected longer-term rates and made mortgages more expensive.

short story

[ozymandius]

5. Wal-Mart Faces Bank Plan Foes

WASHINGTON — Wal-Mart Stores Inc. defended its bid to open a limited-purpose bank and took aim Monday at one of the most regularly voiced concerns about its proposal, saying it had no plans to open branches and it was committed to keeping independent banks in its stores.

At the first of three days of public hearings on Wal-Mart's widely watched bank application, the company confronted concerns raised by its aggressive opposition, including some members of Congress and community banks, as well as those who regularly criticize the company, such as labor and environmental groups.

Jane Thompson, president of Wal-Mart Financial Services, said the retailer had abandoned previously contemplated plans to move into retail banking and wanted to start financial operations solely to process some of its stores' electronic payments.

"We have absolutely no plans to open bank branches," she said at the hearing presented by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the regulatory agency reviewing the retail giant's bank application.

more...

[rfranklin]

6. In a month they'll be offering paycheck advances at 1000% interest...

Consolidation loans at 200% a year and much, much more!

[UpInArms]

69. FDIC proposes conditional charter to Wal-Mart bank critics

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BBB86F854%2D3EA3%2D4971%2DBB57%2D57E88DEDDE44%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- An FDIC official Tuesday asked critics of Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s (WMT) limited banking plans about an idea for a strict conditional charter, saying such restrictions might resolve any concerns.

The remarks by Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chief Operating Officer John Bovenzi appear to indicate that the regulatory body is considering a proposal raised by the retailer for a limited charter that would prohibit branches, among other things.

However, Wal-Mart critics didn't appear more comfortable with the new proposal.
"Wal-Mart never gets into something halfway," said Camden Fine, president of Independent Community Bankers of America. "When they get into something, they go all the way."

Fine also said that Wal-Mart might not attempt to broaden its banking powers until there were new board members at the FDIC, who might not see bank branching as a substantive change.

In July, Wal-Mart applied for an industrial loan charter from the FDIC, which would allow the retailer to process credit cards, debit cards, and electronic checks. The retailer has said this would save the company money it pays to third-party processors.

...more...

[ozymandius]

7. Skilling, on the Stand, Implies Fraud Was Hardly Necessary

HOUSTON, April 10 — Jeffrey K. Skilling, the former Enron chief executive, took the stand in his own defense on Monday and declared that he was "absolutely innocent" of charges that he conspired to defraud Enron. He vowed that he would fight the charges "until the day I die."

With his fellow defendant, the Enron founder Kenneth L. Lay, looking on and nodding and smiling, Mr. Skilling began his risky attempt to rebut charges that he orchestrated a scheme to deceive Enron's investors, while making millions of dollars from selling company stock when he knew the company was in deep financial straits.

Mr. Lay is also accused of conspiring to defraud investors, mostly during the five months in which took over as chief executive after Mr. Skilling's abrupt resignation in August 2001.

While on the stand, Mr. Skilling began to head down what could prove to be a critical path in his defense: arguing that Enron's underlying financial performance was strong enough that there was no need for anyone to even consider committing fraud. Standing like a weatherman next to charts and graphs showing Enron's explosive growth in the energy markets, he was trying to persuade the jury that pursuing a conspiracy to falsify Enron's financial performance would be nonsensical.

more... registration required

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/11/business/11enron.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

[UpInArms]

25. Proposed Enron Settlement Would Seal Some Documents (GRR!)

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/11/business/11ferc.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

The government is moving to bar public access permanently to most of the audiotapes, e-mail messages and other documents that show how Enron earned billions of dollars by manipulating electric power markets, according to one senator and others opposed to a proposed settlement with Enron.

Enron traders boasted of cheating unsuspecting customers, some of whom they mocked as "poor grandmothers" who would not understand that their pockets were being picked by Enron, according to transcripts of a small portion of the tapes that have been released.

The staff of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission wants to withdraw materials that are not formally in the public record, as part of a settlement with Enron on charges of market manipulation.

But critics say that would make the records unavailable to those who are suing Enron. The plan was first reported Saturday in The Seattle Times.

Senator Maria Cantwell, Democrat of Washington, denounced the proposed settlement yesterday, saying it would benefit Enron and its creditors at the expense of electricity customers in the Pacific Northwest who saw their electric bills soar by more than half in 2000 and 2001.

"We expect federal regulators to stand up and do their job of protecting the public with just and reasonable rates," she said in an interview. Instead, she said, the regulators are helping Enron keep "unjust profits" earned "from fraudulent contracts."

...more...

[54anickel]

75. Once again they use the "depends on the definition of what is is".

Bryan Lee, a commission spokesman, said he was mystified by the criticism by Senator Cantwell and others. "Nothing is being sealed," he said.

...

"They are suppressing the facts," she said, adding that whether the verb was suppress, seal or withdraw, "it all amounts to the same thing."

[ozymandius]

8. BofA eliminates 760 jobs; major cuts might be over

In its most public cost-saving move since completing the buyout of MBNA Corp., Bank of America said Monday it will eliminate about 760 jobs in Delaware, close offices here and sell off real estate, including the landmark Herrmann Courthouse in Wilmington.

The bank's actions have major ramifications for employment and real estate markets in New Castle and Kent counties. On jobs, Dover will be especially hard hit because the bank plans to close its credit card call center there by the end of the year, eliminating 630 jobs.

The cuts are just the latest in a series of reductions that have come in the wake of Bank of America's Jan. 1 purchase of Wilmington-based MBNA, a credit card giant that had been the state's largest private employer, with about 10,500 workers.

-cut-

Employees afraid to speak

Bank executives haven't said how many jobs they have, or will, eliminate in Delaware, but they have said they will cut 6,000 nationwide through layoffs and attrition. Delaware job cuts so far, which range from top executives to maintenance workers, are believed to total about 1,500.

more...

[Roland99]

9. Great Little Lord Pissypants toon!

[UpInArms]

10. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

Last trade 89.63 Change -0.04 (-0.04%)

Iran Fears Crimp Dollar Momentum

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx-financial-markets-headlines/dailyfx-financial-markets-headlines/7926-iran-fears-crimp-dollar.html

Gaining slightly against the majors on the day, the greenback rose only incrementally as trading momentum from Friday’s payroll release dissipated. Rising against the Swiss franc, bidding pushed the pair through the 1.3000 handle to stop at current resistance.

Trading at 1.3048, the figure is slightly higher than Friday’s close at 1.3009. With no economic releases on the session, traders took the opportunity to lay low as geopolitical risks were heightened on already existing tensions with Iran over weekend. Issuing further rhetoric over the questionable start of the country’s nuclear harnessing program, Iran’s hard line president warned his fellow citizens to not be concerned with “bullying” by Western counterparts. The statements were issued over the weekend ahead of the arrival of a team of UN inspectors expected to visit controversial facilities in the region today. Consequently, the situation has heightened demand for gold bullion as contracts continue to hover the $600 figure.

Stocks were giddy heading into the first quarter earnings season as traders anticipated the first report by Alcoa. As a result, in midday trading, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 61.56 points to 11,181.60 as the broader S&P 500 index climbed 5.24 points to 1,300.74. Additionally, bolstering shares in the session, JP Morgan stock gained 50 cents to $42.40 on transaction news involving Bank of New York. Bank of New York plans to exchange its 338 New York area branches for JPM’s corporate trust unit including $150 million in cash. The transaction was not well received by BONY investors as stock was bid lower by $1.45 to $35.38. Separately, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. ran into a barrier with regards to its recent attempt for a bank application with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Although plans are not to include retail branches but only electronic transactions, the roadblock pushed shares lower by 20 cents to $45.82. Subsequently advancers outpaced decliners by 17 to 14.

...more...

[54anickel]

48. Bush Calls on China to Address Currency

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060411/ap_on_bi_ge/us_china_trade&printer=1;_ylt=AvWQkHDivvmcORRd4XxF0XNv24cA;_ylu=X3oDMTA3MXN1bHE0BHNlYwN0bWE

snip>

Bush said that his agenda for next week's summit meeting with Hu would include "fairness in trade as well as human rights and freedom of religion."

Bush told students during a question and answer session at Johns Hopkins' Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies that he planned to raise the currency issue and copyright piracy.

"He's coming into a country where there's over a $200 billion trade deficit and a lot of Americans are wondering where's the equity in trade," Bush said. "I think he could help the Americans understand the importance of a free-trading world if he were to maybe make a statement on his currency, for example."

snip>

The currency question is being dealt with in talks between the U.S. Treasury Department and China's Finance Ministry with Treasury officials saying Monday that a report on whether China is manipulating its currency will be sent to Congress after Hu's visit is concluded.

more...

[UpInArms]

11. IMF warns over credit derivative liquidity

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-04-11T100052Z_01_L10623210_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-IMF-DERIVATIVES.XML

LONDON, April 11 (Reuters) - Investors in structured credit products risk not being able to sell or obtain an acceptable price following a market downturn because buyers may shun the fast-growing market, the IMF said on Tuesday.

The risk of liquidity disturbances is "material ... (and) certain products and market segments are particularly vulnerable," the International Monetary Fund said in its annual Global Financial Stability Report.

The secondary market, away from the biggest banks, was more likely to be at risk, it said.

Regulators should discuss the issues with banks and financial institutions, while market participants must design liquidity cushions at individual firms and within sectors, the IMF said. A wider investor base should also be encouraged.

Liquidity issues in the fast-growing and complex structured credit markets arose last year when the ratings downgrades of Ford <F.N> and General Motors <GM.N> led to a sell off in some parts of synthetic collateralised debt obligations.

The absence of buyers of risk at that time led to a fundamental repricing of the products and reportedly lost some institutions hundreds of millions of dollars.

...more...

[54anickel]

35. Storm clouds seen over markets: IMF

2006 seen as 'not bad' after stellar 2005 :wtf: is with that sub-title?

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B7F74606B%2DDD80%2D44A4%2DB5B8%2D047C6D5D42E1%7D&source=blq%2Fyhoo&dist=yhoo&siteid=yhoo

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- After several years of low interest rates and ample liquidity, storm clouds are developing over global financial markets, according to a new report from the International Monetary Fund.

Although the global financial system has gathered strength and resilience in 2005, "a number of cyclical challenges appear to be gathering on the horizon, which necessitates a more nuanced view of the financial outlook for the remainder of 2006 and beyond," the study, called the Global Financial Stability Report, concluded.

Despite the worries, continuation of sunny skies was still the baseline forecast of IMF researchers.

"The most likely cyclical setting for financial markets in 2006 could be defined as 'not bad, but not as good as the stellar year 2005,' the report concluded.
But the storm clouds are mounting and questions remain about how fast they might arrive and whether financial systems will be able to handle any added stress.

more ominous news followed by "nuttin' to worry bout though".... What a wacky article. :crazy:

[54anickel]

38. The Global Price Rule (Roach joining the "maybe it's different this time")

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20060410-mon.html#anchor0

The momentum of liquidity-driven markets always lasts longer than you think. Now it is getting ridiculous. Markets have taken on an almost impervious aura. That continues to be the message from low volatility in equities, generally stable currencies, and historically tight spreads in risky assets such as emerging market and high-yield debt. And so once again, the humble practitioner of orthodox macro is faced with a profound question: Do the markets know something we don’t, or is something about to give?

I suspect we’ll have an answer to this question sooner rather than later. As I see it, the verdict hinges critically on the inflation call. So far, inflationary pressures have remained generally quiescent around the world -- even in the face of an oil shock and a sharp upsurge in non-oil commodity prices. But now, with the global growth cycle on the upswing, there are worries in some quarters that inflation may be about to take a turn for the worse. While the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and even the Bank of Japan continue to express concern over such a possibility, the markets remain skeptical. That’s certainly the inference that can be drawn from a decomposition of the recent back-up in long-term interest rates. Inflation-linked bonds speak of a deterioration that has been almost exclusively concentrated in the real interest rate component; the so-called break-even inflation gauge -- the difference between nominal and real interest rates and, therefore, a good proxy for market-based measures of inflationary expectations -- remains confined to the relatively tight range that has prevailed over the past couple of years. Most bond bears argue that the upsurge in growth means that the pressure on long rates is about to shift from the real interest rate component to the inflationary premium.

I am not in that camp -- at least, insofar as the inflation call is concerned. To me, inflation is more a global call than ever before. Such a conclusion is very much at odds with the country-specific assessment of inflation risks that still dominates the thinking of central banks. Recently, I took issue with the closed macro of yesteryear, arguing that the increasingly powerful forces of globalization required more of an open approach to macro modeling (see my 22 February essay, “Open Macro”). The case for open macro stems not just from the explosion of global flows in trade, financial capital, and information but also from increasingly powerful cross-border arbitrages driving global markets for labor, physical capital, and saving. Open macro has particularly important implications for inflation: With the first-round impacts of globalization profoundly asymmetrical -- initially injecting more supply than demand into the global economy -- price pressures could remain subdued for a lot longer than a closed macro framework would suggest.

There is persuasive statistical evidence in support of the emergence of a global price rule. Interestingly enough, researchers from the Bank for International Settlements have led the charge in presenting this evidence. As such, this self-described “bank for central banks” finds itself very much at odds with its biggest clients. In its 75th annual report published in mid-2005, the BIS stressed the breakdown of many of the traditional linkages of closed macro -- namely, sharply reduced correlations between labor costs and prices, between currencies and import prices, between import prices and core inflation, and even between domestic “output gaps” and core inflation. The BIS stressed that this breakdown has been global in scope and particularly evident during the past decade, when globalization has been on the ascendancy.

BIS researchers have recently extended this analysis, arguing that a “globe-centric” framework now does a much better job in explaining inflation than does the traditional “country-centric” approach (see Claudio Borio and Andrew Filardo, “Globalisation and inflation: New cross-country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation,” March 2006). Their major contribution is a careful construction of several alternative versions of a “global output gap” -- in effect, a measure of the difference between aggregate supply and demand for the overall global economy. In looking at a sample of 15 major industrialized countries, Borio and Filardo find that the global output gap does a much better job in explaining fluctuations in inflation of individual economies than does the domestic output gap. In other words, to the extent that there is slack in the global economy, inflationary pressures could well remain in check -- even for those nations that have run out of spare capacity in labor and product markets at home.

snip>

It may be that we’re guilty of making too much out of the great bond market conundrum....

more... :eyes:

[UpInArms]

13. Gold passes $600, silver hits 23-year peak

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060411/bs_nm/markets_precious_dc

LONDON (Reuters) - Gold jumped above $600 an ounce to its highest in 25 years and silver set a new 23-year peak on Tuesday as funds and investors persisted in widening their exposure to surging commodities.

They poured money into precious metals to diversify their portfolios on worries about inflation, tensions in the Middle East and uncertainties over the dollar's outlook because of the U.S. trade and budget deficits, analysts said.

"At the moment, I wouldn't try to bet against the continuation of the rally," said Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Rossbach, head of precious metals marketing at Germany's Heraeus.

<snip>

Spot gold hit a high of $604 an ounce before easing to $600.80/601.60 by 0918 GMT, against $598.80/599.60 late in New York on Monday.

<snip>

Spot silver rose as high as $13.01 an ounce before easing to $12.75/12.78, still above $12.68/12.71 late in New York.

...more...

[UpInArms]

27. June Gold @ $604.10 oz - May Silver @ $12.69 oz - May Copper @ $2.73 lb

9:49 AM ET 4/11/06 JUNE GOLD RISES $2.30 TO $604.10/OZ AFTER $604.30 HIGH

9:49 AM ET 4/11/06 MAY SILVER UP 13C AT $12.69/OZ AFTER 22-YR HIGH OF $12.735

9:49 AM ET 4/11/06 MAY COPPER CLIMBS 1.8C TO $2.729/LB AFTER A RECORD $2.73

[54anickel]

46. Gold, Silver, Copper Rise in Asia as Funds Increase Investment

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a8eeBx0HmVN8&refer=us

April 11 (Bloomberg) -- Gold prices rose to 25-year highs in Asia, as investors bought the metal to hedge against inflation. Silver climbed to a 23-year high and copper rose to a record in London.

Reports in the Washington Post and the New Yorker that the U.S. is planning military strikes against Iran, the world's fourth-biggest oil producer, pushed up energy prices. Investment funds are also pouring money into commodities such as copper, used to make wires and pipes, betting their returns will beat those on stocks and bonds.

``There's a heightened level of funds coming into the metals in the second quarter,'' said Mark Pervan, head of research at Daiwa Securities SMBC in Melbourne. ``The higher oil prices also bode well for'' precious metals.

snip>

Higher oil prices are boosting gold as investors seek a hedge against accelerating inflation. Gold typically rises as consumer- price increases quicken. The precious metal surged to $873 an ounce in 1980, when U.S. prices jumped more than 12 percent.

Investments in index-linked commodity funds will rise 38 percent to $110 billion this year, according to Barclays Capital. The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, which includes copper, zinc and gold, has advanced 24 percent in the past year, more than double the gain in the S&P 500.

more...

[UpInArms]

61. June Gold @ $599.40 oz

12:11 PM ET 4/11/06 JUNE GOLD FALLS BACK UNDER $600/OZ IN AFTERNOON TRADING

12:11 PM ET 4/11/06 JUNE GOLD LAST DOWN $2.40 AT $599.40/OZ IN NY

[UpInArms]

16. Commentary: Why wages aren't rising with job growth

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B01592CAE%2DCCD3%2D4476%2D8F85%2D3E703DC33F91%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

The biggest gains last month were in the lowest paying sectors. These include such categories as restaurants and hotels, retailing, health care, and state and local governments.

Then there's global competition. Because companies in most industries are unable to raise their prices because of the influx of low-priced goods from abroad, they try to hold down their costs as much as possible -- and labor is most firms' biggest cost.

Advances in technology, including the rise of the Internet, have enabled many companies to outsource a number of their jobs, as you know.

Some say that the influx of immigrants -- both legal and otherwise -- might be a factor in holding down wages as well, especially for those at the bottom of the rung when it comes to skills and education.

Finally, there's the shadow labor force. These are the people who have officially dropped out of the workforce over the past six years, bringing the labor force participation rate down from a peak of nearly 68% of the over-16 population, to 66% today.

When you count these folks in, and those who are either working at jobs beneath their skills, or part-time when they would prefer full-time, you can see that there's still lots of competition for jobs.

[54anickel]

20. Hey, maybe I should change my name to "The Shadow"? n/t

[UpInArms]

22. a 2 percent decrease in labor force participation is enormous

in terms of joblessness.

Only the "Shadow" knows.

:hi:

[54anickel]

29. Yeah, looks like I have a lot of company. Maybe I'm not the only

one to be so fed up as to "say f-you corporate Murika"? Of course the need for my skill set has dropped somewhat, the pay for my skill set has dropped enormously. So why take a job with so much stress, demand of my time (on-call, hooked to a beeeper, long hours, constant upgrading of skills) for a wee-bit more than what a bank teller or check-out clerk makes (with a lot less stress!). But no one would take me for one of those jobs either - "over qualified". So I said, "f-it", and I count my blessings everyday that I am in a situation that allows me to do that. I'm still looking occassionally, though not as hard as I once was. Something will come along one of these days...

In the mean time, I'm looking at changing my profession (again!) and deciding what I want to be when I grow up. It might be "back to school" time in the fall, but it won't be for a "bidness" degree. Perhaps basket weaving?

The Shadow :hi:

[RawMaterials]

60. Bartender

maybe I think no matter how bad times are people are always going to drown their sorrows.

[AnneD]

31. Morning Marketeers,

:donut:All the business 'news'shows were agog at Alcoa's profit dividend. I think we'll have a bunch of fools throwing money around today at the casinos.
54anickle, if you are the Shadow, I'll be Diogenes-got my lamp right here. Lot of Nurses I know freelance.


Remember back in the good old days in the 90's when wages were going up and everyone was getting fat and sassy? Nursing was one area where wages were going flat, they were even firing and laying off Nurses and newly graduated Nurses couldn't find work (and Health Care profit as well as CEO salaries were heading to the moon). What the Health care industry was doing was chipping away at the quality of care. They looked at their biggest 'expense' Nursing care (hello! that's your business) and started cutting. They tried to 'cross train' staff (honest to God they tried to try to train janitorial staff to do urinary cath insertions, among other nonsense).

That didn't work too well so they cut Nursing staff and gave them a higher patient load. They laid off respiratory, lab, and janitorial staff and guess who had to pick up the slack.....the Nurses. They also decided to increase the shifts to 12 hrs. But you will have an extra day off, and it is better for continuity of care. What a Depends load of crap. They did away with an entire shift, loaded you with more and sicker patients, increase the number of tasks you were required to do and flattened your pay.

The Health care facilities, in order to disguise the patient complaints began the much disliked 'customer care' business model (complete with preprinted scripts that Nurses were suppose to spew at their patient...sorry you didn't get your pain med because I was overloaded, but look, you got a mint on your pillow). Nurses don't treat customers, we treat patients. They may like a certain diet but when they are in the hospital, they are there do get healthy enough to leave. A cardiac patient will not be getting a pizza on my shift-I don't care how many nasty notes he writes about me. Another way they tried to deceive the patients was to have everyone in scrubs. One group of Nurses decide that only Nurses would wear white scrubs. The patients were shocked and complained at the lack of Nursing staff. The CEO's solution was to demand that the Nurses not wear white.

When Nurses started to rebel and leave the profession, a bidding war started for the Nurses that remained. Finally, the Companies managed to convince everyone that there was a shortage (even though the GAO study proved otherwise) and they began to import Nurses from overseas. That had a chilling effect on the wage gains that Nurses were finally beginning to make. The importing of Nurses has done to Nursing what imported labour has done to the meat packing industry.

We are coming on to the time now when the Boomer Nurses (the last large batch of US trained and seasoned Nurses) are retiring. Nursing schools are closing because they have not been funded and subsidized at the same level as medical schools. Staff salaries for Nurse teachers are below even a floor Nurse. This is at the time when the demand for Nursing care will peak. We have had over 20 years to come up with and implement changes and little, other than poach other countries Nurses, has been done.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

edited because I hit submit first.

[UpInArms]

17. All the President's Leaks (in tune with the 'toon)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/10/AR2006041001049.html

What's amazing about the defenses offered for President Bush in the Valerie Plame leak investigation is that they deal with absolutely everything except the central issue: Did Bush know a lot more about this case than he let on before the 2004 elections?

But first, let's offer full credit to the Bush spin operation for working so hard and so effectively to change the subject.

<snip>

The president's defenders want you to think that when it comes to leaking, every president does it. Why should Bush be held to a different standard? Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) told CNN on Sunday that the Bush administration was innocently asking itself, "How do we get the full story out there?"

Besides, since the president can authorize the declassification of anything he chooses to declassify, he can't be involved in anything untoward. "This was not a leak," Joseph diGenova, a top Republican lawyer, told the New York Sun's Josh Gerstein. "This was an authorized disclosure." Ah, yes, it depends on what the meaning of the word "leak" is. That sounds familiar, doesn't it?

<snip>

In its issue of Oct. 13, 2003, Time magazine quoted Bush as saying: "Listen, I know of nobody -- I don't know of anybody in my administration who leaked classified information." Then the magazine's writers made an observation that turns out to be prescient: "Bush," they wrote, "seemed to emphasize those last two words as if hanging on to a legal life preserver in choppy seas."

<snip>

In its issue of Oct. 13, 2003, Time magazine quoted Bush as saying: "Listen, I know of nobody -- I don't know of anybody in my administration who leaked classified information." Then the magazine's writers made an observation that turns out to be prescient: "Bush," they wrote, "seemed to emphasize those last two words as if hanging on to a legal life preserver in choppy seas."

...more...

[54anickel]

71. All the spin must be in response to the Gallup poll which shows the

public overwhelming thinks it was illegal or unethical. Looks like their spin is attempting to hit both the legal and ethical issues and it's a piss-poor attempt at best.

When will America wake up and call for impeachment?

[UpInArms]

18. White House Linked To Convicted Phone-Jamming Mastermind

http://www.nbc17.com/news/8602020/detail.html

WASHINGTON -- Key figures in a phone-jamming scheme designed to keep New Hampshire Democrats from voting in 2002 had regular contact with the White House and Republican Party as the plan was unfolding, phone records introduced in criminal court show.

The records show that Bush campaign operative James Tobin, who recently was convicted in the case, made two dozen calls to the White House within a three-day period around Election Day 2002 - as the phone jamming operation was finalized, carried out and then abruptly shut down.

The national Republican Party, which paid millions in legal bills to defend Tobin, says the contacts involved routine election business and that it was "preposterous" to suggest the calls involved phone jamming.

The Justice Department has secured three convictions in the case but hasn't accused any White House or national Republican officials of wrongdoing, nor made any allegations suggesting party officials outside of New Hampshire were involved. The phone records of calls to the White House were exhibits in Tobin's trial but prosecutors did not make them part of their case.

Democrats plan to ask a federal judge Tuesday to order GOP and White House officials to answer questions about the phone jamming in a civil lawsuit alleging voter fraud.

...more...

Isn't it illegal to make election calls from government phones? Wasn't there a big stink about this during the Clinton admin?

[54anickel]

24. Doesn't matter when you're above the law. Seems nothing this

teflon-mal-admin does ever sticks. I get tired of hearing "it'll catch up to them". Been hearing it for nearly 6 years now but they've just become more brazen with each passing year and with each passing year the nation goes further down the crapper - I barely recognize her anymore.

[AnneD]

43. And as they get away with every incident...

they will become even more embolden. This is why I don't care about censure-it is a slap on the wrist. We need the 2x4 of impeached to whallop them upside the head to get their attention. And by the looks of more and more towns voting to impeach...others have the same idea.

[specimenfred1984]

47. The Corruption is Widespread in the Markets Too

It only gets little tiny mentions in the news, what a frikken surprise huh?

--- On March 9, the FSA ordered the Tokyo branch of JP Morgan Securities Japan Co. to suspend new business for three weeks for "artificial market making" related to stock futures. ---

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B0392DF31%2D20EB%2D43EE%2DA2D6%2DC780645F4C72%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=

[UpInArms]

19. Treasuries drift up, awaiting insight on Fed moves

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-11T124629Z_01_N11310414_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS.XML

NEW YORK, April 11 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices edged up for a second session on Tuesday as bond bulls clung to hopes the Federal Reserve could stop raising interest rates after its next meeting in May.

Gains were described as tentative as investors awaited clues on official rates from economic data and policy-makers.

Benchmark 10-year notes <US10YT=RR> were up 3/32 and yielding 4.94 percent, down from 4.96 percent on Monday. Dealers were keeping a close eye on 5 percent, a key technical threshold.

"Does anyone seem impressed that tens got to 4.99 percent and failed to print a 5 percent handle? Apparently not," said David Ader, government bond strategist at RBS Greenwich. "There was hardly a momentum rejection, rather a yawn."

The message from U.S. central bank officials has been mixed over the past few days, with some hinting at a pause in monetary tightening while others indicated rates might need to rise further to ward off inflation.

...more...

[UpInArms]

28. Printing Press Report:Fed adds temporary reserves via overnight repos

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-11T133546Z_01_N11292685_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, April 11 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Tuesday that it added temporary reserves to the banking system via overnight repurchase agreements.

The benchmark fed funds rate last traded at 4.75 percent, the Fed's current target for the overnight lending rate on loans between banks.

Further details of the operations are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[UpInArms]

21. pre-opening blather

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0. Futures indications continue to improve heading into the opening bell and now remain comfortably above fair value. Providing the most recent catalyst behind improved sentiment have been reports out of Nokia (NOK) that Q1 phone prices are stronger than expected, news that has lifted shares of rival and suggested holding Motorola (MOT).

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.5. Futures trade improves modestly since the last update, now indicating a more positive start to the trading day. The absence of any notable economic data may place more emphasis on earnings and a widely expected 11th straight quarter of double-digit growth; but there is little conviction behind market action following the lightest trading day of the year on the NYSE and heading into a holiday weekend.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.5. Futures versus fair value suggests a flat to slightly lower open for the cash market. Meanwhile, Alcoa (AA) kicked off earnings season last night with a better than expected report but the market's fixation on oil prices flirting with $70 per barrel on lingering concerns about Iran's nuclear ambitions and interest rates within reach of 5% continue to act as an overhang.

[UpInArms]

23. 9:32 EST All is Well in the Land of LaLa!

Dow 11,185.52 +44.19 (+0.40%)
Nasdaq 2,339.51 +6.24 (+0.27%)
S&P 500 1,299.56 +2.96 (+0.23%)
10-Yr Bond 4.928 -0.35 (-0.71%)

NYSE Volume 47,816,000
Nasdaq Volume 53,477,000

[UpInArms]

26. China's March Trade Surplus Hits $11.2B

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/business/AP-China-Trade-Surplus.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

BEIJING (AP) -- China's trade surplus in March soared to $11.2 billion, nearly double the same month last year, underscoring the nation's tensions with the United States as its president prepares to visit Washington.

China's imports in March grew at a slower-than-expected annual rate of 21.1 percent to $66.9 billion, the Ministry of Commerce said on its Web site. Exports rose faster than forecast, soaring by 28.3 percent to $78 billion.

Trade and U.S. complaints that China has failed to keep promises to open its markets are expected to be key issues when Chinese President Hu Jintao and President Bush meet this month.

Bush faces mounting pressure to prod Beijing to take action on its trade surplus with the United States, which hit a record $202 billion last year.

China's total trade surplus more than tripled last year to $102 billion. The country's total surplus is smaller than that with the United States because China runs large deficits with several countries.

...more...

[UpInArms]

30. 10:05 EST a bit of bloodletting going on

Dow 11,150.46 +9.13 (+0.08%)
Nasdaq 2,326.98 -6.29 (-0.27%)
S&P 500 1,296.12 -0.48 (-0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.926 -0.37 (-0.75%)

NYSE Volume 297,932,000
Nasdaq Volume 316,230,000

09:40 am : Market opens modestly higher as upbeat corporate news calms early nerves tied to rising oil prices and higher interest rates. On the earnings front, Alcoa (AA 35.04 +2.21) has set a positive tone for the Q1 reporting season after more than doubling profits. Nokia (NOK 21.56 +1.16) saying that the average selling price of its handsets in Q1 were stronger than expected has also been a source of early buying support, boosting shares of rival Motorola (MOT 23.64 +0.41) - a suggested holding in our Active Portfolio.

DJ30 +36.42 NASDAQ +4.09 SP500 +3.20 NASDAQ Vol 76 mln NYSE Vol 62 mln

[UpInArms]

33. 10:23 EST Oopsie! Looks like it hit a vein!

Dow 11,104.59 -36.74 (-0.33%)
Nasdaq 2,319.52 -13.75 (-0.59%)
S&P 500 1,290.48 -6.12 (-0.47%)
10-Yr Bond 4.922 -0.41 (-0.83%)

NYSE Volume 422,028,000
Nasdaq Volume 468,487,00

10:00 am : Major averages now trade in split fashion as the bulk of industry leadership becomes mixed. Materials is still pacing the way higher, benefiting from Alcoa's strong earnings report, while oil prices above $69 per barrel have helped Energy extend its year-to-date leading 13% advance. Health Care, however, remains modestly weak due in large part to an 18% drubbing in Bausch & Lomb (BOL 47.39 -10.05), which is halting shipment of its ReNu contact lens solution. Also taking some steam out of early recovery efforts have been reversals in Technology, Industrials and Conumer Staples.DJ30 +14.09 NASDAQ -2.97 SP500 +0.78 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1007/1386/232 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1015/1561/160 mln

[54anickel]

39. Stocks, buck, gold down and bonds up? Strange day so far. n/t

[MARALE]

54. Not a good week so far

I wonder if it will go under the 11,000 mark? I bet it will, but then I am usually wrong. this week is interesting to watch.
:popcorn: :popcorn:

Hi everybody!

:hi: :hi: :hi:

[UpInArms]

32. Merrill, Goldman in insider trading probe: source

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060411/bs_nm/crime_insider_source_dc

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Federal prosecutors will reveal an insider trading scheme on Tuesday involving a Merrill Lynch analyst and two former Goldman Sachs employees, according to a source briefed on the investigation.

The case is linked to the arrest last year of a former stockbroker who allegedly made stock trades from stolen prepublication copies of Business Week magazine, the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Merrill Lynch and Co. Inc. (NYSE:MER - news) declined to comment and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS - news) had no immediate comment.

There are at least two strands of the scheme, said the source. One involved an employee at the company that prints Business Week magazine, who obtained information from the "Inside Wall Street" column ahead of time.

The other strand involved an analyst at Merrill Lynch who provided merger and acquisition information to co-conspirators.

The two former Goldman employees were involved in both schemes, the source said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

65. Feds nab insider trading ring in $7M scam

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B8475A280%2D6FCD%2D48D1%2DB013%2D34E54ABD6F5D%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - A Merrill Lynch analyst and two Goldman Sachs employees built an illegal network to bilk investors out of $7 million by using inside information in the most extensive insider trading scandals uncovered in years on Wall Street, federal authorities said Tuesday.

<snip>

"This fraud is one of the most widespread, varied and premeditated insider trading rings we have ever prosecuted," said Mark K. Schonfeld, director of the SEC's Northeast Regional Office. "The defendants sought out individuals working in our nation's leading financial institutions hoping to get them to betray their employer, their clients and the investing public.

Federal authorities said they launched their probe eight months ago after noticing unusual trading activity ahead of the purchase of Reebok by Adidas.

Investigators grew suspicious when a 63-year-old retired seamstress in Croatia made several million dollars by placing call options ahead of the Adidas deal, Schonfeld said. The woman turned out to be the aunt of one of the ringleaders in the scheme, David Pajcin, a former employee of Goldman Sachs.

<snip>

In total, the pair traded in at least 25 stocks within a year. The SEC has frozen more than $6 million in trading proceeds.

...more...

[UpInArms]

34. Vioxx jury orders Merck to pay $9M in punitive damages: WSJ

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B5F68813C%2D1CF1%2D44EC%2D8D71%2D9212DFFC50A3%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- A New Jersey jury on Tuesday decided Merck & Co. (MRK 34.75, +0.33, +1.0% ) should pay a former user of the company's painkiller, Vioxx, $9 million in punitive damages, on top of the $4.5 million in compensation awarded last week, the Wall Street Journal reported on its Web site Tuesday.

[54anickel]

41. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose...

Merck Splits the Difference
The pharmaceutical wins one, loses one in New Jersey Vioxx trials.

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/12254304/

A recent split decision for Merck(NYSE: MRK) in New Jersey found the pharmaceutical not liable for a plaintiff's heart attack in one case, but negligent in another, awarding the second plaintiff $4.5 million in compensatory damages. As a result, commentators and analysts have begun to openly and aggressively question the company's decision to fight every lawsuit individually.

For one thing, trying each case individually will be expensive. Merck spent $285 million in 2005 to defend against negligence in just the first handful of cases to go to trial thus far. The company has created a reserve of $675 million solely to help defend the way it handled Vioxx. With more than 19,000 plaintiffs collectively filing more than 9,600 lawsuits against the company for Vioxx-related injuries, it seems reasonable to expect that Merck will run through that reserve rather quickly.

In addition, fighting each suit individually exposes the pharmaceutical to some major liability awards. Merck's individual wins don't amount to much, because each new trial has a different set of facts. Losses, however, have a cumulative effect that the next plaintiff can build upon. In the first case that went to trial, which Merck lost, the jury awarded the victim $253 million in damages. The company was only spared having to pay that amount because Texas law caps damages at about one-tenth of that total. Other states where these trials will play out might not have such favorable laws.

snip>

Ultimately, it seems the biggest winners here are the trial lawyers. As a shareholder, that's why I support Merck's "try every case" tactic. There's no reason why a corporation needs to be held hostage to the threats of trial lawyers, bullied by a raft of lawsuits to fork over millions, if not billions of dollars in settlements. Merck has undoubtedly reached this point because far too many other companies have caved in to lawyers' demands, saying it's cheaper to pay than fight. That may be true in the short run, but in the long run, it only encourages more costly courtroom struggles.

Even though Merck's stock may be temporarily depressed because of the ongoing legal battles, the company will be better off in the long run if it doesn't give in to the intimidation. Fortunately, Merck has "deep pockets" into which it can dig to fend off many of these attempts at legalized extortion; other companies are not so lucky.

more... :eyes:

[UpInArms]

36. US Treasury says addressing IBM pension issue, Misuse of Treasury Seal

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BAB76F597%2DA3B9%2D44EF%2DA98A%2DEF6E5FFFA57F%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. Treasury Department is addressing concerns raised by International Business Machines Corp.'s (IBM) lobbying effort on pensions, while the Department of Justice has decided not to pursue related civil and criminal charges, according to a report by the Treasury inspector general.

At issue is IBM's 2003 circulation to Congress of an altered version of nonpublic Treasury "talking points" on pension policy. The information was used at a time when Rep. Bernard Sanders, I-Vt., had proposed restrictions on Treasury's ability to overturn a court ruling against IBM pension conversion.

"The misuse of the Treasury seal and name has been referred to the Treasury's assistant secretary for management and chief financial officer for potential action or remedies," according to the inspector general's report, released Monday.

A Department of Justice spokesman on Monday said the agency doesn't discuss cases it declines.

In September 2003, the Wall Street Journal reported an IBM lobbyist had sent various lawmakers' staffs a Treasury document saying Treasury strongly opposed a pension policy amendment proposed by Sanders.

Sanders and co-sponsors of the amendment were concerned a pending Treasury proposal would reverse the decision of a federal court in Illinois earlier that year. The court had found IBM's plans to convert traditional pensions to cash-balance plans would violate federal laws against age discrimination.

...more...

[54anickel]

45. ZOWIE-WOW-WOW "Friend or foe of Bush"?!?!?!

Then Assistant Treasury Secretary for Tax Policy Pamela Olson told the inspector general she could not recall authorizing the Treasury official involved to release the talking points. But Olson said she "might have told him it was okay."

Gregory Jenner, a deputy to Olson at the time, said the decision about what is public and nonpublic "is not that cut and dry," according to the report. In deciding whether to share nonpublic information, Jenner said he considered if the person was a "friend or foe" of the Bush administration and if that person could be trusted.


Great article, a must read! Is it time to shutdown K Street yet? We the people - my ass!!!!

[UpInArms]

55. Louis V. Gerstner, Jr. joined The Carlyle Group in Jan 2003 - fmr IBM CEO

http://www.thecarlylegroup.com/eng/team/l5-team861.html

Louis V. Gerstner, Jr. joined The Carlyle Group in January 2003 as Chairman. Prior to joining Carlyle, Mr. Gerstner was Chairman of the Board of IBM Corporation from April 1993 until his retirement in December 2002. He served as Chief Executive Officer of IBM from 1993 until March 2002.

Prior to joining IBM, Mr. Gerstner served for four years as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of RJR Nabisco, Inc. This was preceded by an 11-year career at American Express Company, where he was President of the parent company and Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of its largest subsidiary, American Express Travel Related Services Company. Prior to that, Mr. Gerstner was a Director of the management consulting firm of McKinsey & Co., Inc., which he joined in 1965.

A native of Mineola, New York, Mr. Gerstner received a bachelor's degree in engineering from Dartmouth College in 1963 and an M.B.A. from Harvard Business School in 1965. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, The Business Council, the National Academy of Engineering, a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and has been awarded honorary doctorates from a number of U.S. universities.

Mr. Gerstner is a Director of Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, a member of the Advisory Board of Sony Corporation and a Director of the National Committee on United States-China Relations. He is Vice Chairman of the Board of Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center and a Trustee of the American Museum of Natural History. In past years he served on the Boards of The New York Times Company, American Express Company, AT&T, Caterpillar, Inc., Jewel Companies, Melville Corporation, RJR Nabisco Holdings Co., and DaimlerChrysler Chairman's Council.

...more...

:eyes:

[UpInArms]

40. 10:44 EST Not so happy in the Land of LaLa

Dow 11,082.57 -58.76 (-0.53%)
Nasdaq 2,313.03 -20.24 (-0.87%)
S&P 500 1,288.56 -8.04 (-0.62%)
10-Yr Bond 4.930 -0.33 (-0.66%)

NYSE Volume 570,176,000
Nasdaq Volume 636,835,000

10:30 am : Market continues to deteriorate as eight of ten sectors now trade lower and market breadth turns negative. Technology remains one of the most influential leaders to the downside as the PHLX Semi Index slips under yesterday's lows coupled with declines of more than 1.0% in hardware and networking. Adding to this morning's struggles have been the inability by the Dow and Nasdaq to hold support near 11,117 and 2324, respectively. DJ30 -36.18 NASDAQ -14.18 SOX -1.3% SP500 -5.61 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1614/983/532 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1554/1307/324 mln

[54anickel]

44. Poor results don't affect CEO riches, study finds

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2002923800_overpaidceos11.html

AT&T, Hewlett-Packard and Safeway are among almost a dozen companies that rewarded executives for long-term underperformance, says a new study that highlights what it calls the broken link between pay and results.

Chief executives at 11 companies studied by the Corporate Library, an independent group that monitors corporate governance, received $865 million over five years while presiding over a loss of $640 million in shareholder value.

snip>

Others listed in the study were BellSouth, Home Depot, Lucent Technologies, Merck, Time Warner, Pfizer, Verizon and Wal-Mart.

"The link between long-term value growth and long-term incentive awards is broken at too many companies — if it was ever forged properly in the first place," said Paul Hodgson, one of the study's authors, in an e-mailed statement.

CEO compensation in the U.S. has tripled from 1990 to 2004 compared with an 87 percent rise in corporate earnings, leading to investor lawsuits and calls to curb executive pay. The Securities and Exchange Commission proposed rules in January to make it easier for investors to understand and restrain CEO pay.

more...

[54anickel]

49. Investigation prompts Saudi stocks sell-off

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20060410/bs_ft/fto041020061420304025;_ylt=AhLshnB2DReIICXRWt3QgBL2ULEF;_ylu=X3oDMTA5aHJvMDdwBHNlYwN5bmNhdA--

The Saudi stock market index fell more than 8 per cent on Monday, the biggest decline in a Gulf market since panic selling hit exchanges on March 14.

Analysts in Riyadh said the drop in the Tadawul All Share index came after the Capital Market Authority warned it was investigating some speculators, sending others rushing for an exit.

Last month's drop in the Saudi market, the largest in the Arab world, came after a long period of spectacular gains that saw prices up by 100 per cent in 2005.

The correction caused concern in official circles amid concerns that millions of small investors were getting hurt. Government intervention since then has included allowing share splits and opening the market for the first time to foreign residents of Saudi Arabia.

With the price of money-losing stocks driven up by speculators, the CMA has also started to act. Beshr Bakheet, a Riyadh financial consultant, insisted that Monday's slump was healthy.

more...

[54anickel]

50. In France, an Economic Bullet Goes Unbitten

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/11/business/worldbusiness/11euro.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

Nearly two years ago, the chief executive of one of the largest international companies based in France described what he viewed as the best chance for needed economic reform that would open up European economies by making it much easier to hire and fire workers.

It was, he said, something that politicians from all parties knew was necessary, but that was unlikely to be popular with voters. The answer, he said, was for parties in the major Continental economies to accept the unpopularity that would come from economic change, so that each government would expect to be replaced at the next election by a government that would then offend voters by adopting more such legislation, and in turn be replaced.

The best chance for that, he said privately, was in Germany. He saw France as far less likely to have it work, in part because even the supposedly conservative parties were becoming more and more opposed to change.

He got the unpopularity part right, a fact that was clear both in the inability of Chancellor Gerhard Schröder to win re-election last fall in Germany, and in yesterday's abrupt surrender by the French president, Jacques Chirac, as he revoked a law his government had put into effect aimed at making it easier to hire and fire workers under 26.

snip>

One reason for the reluctance of the French and the Italians to stick by what the politicians see as needed changes is the longtime insecurity of governments, in contrast to relatively stable political situations in countries like the United States and Britain.

Phfft! That stable political situation in the US and Britain is because the people aren't really in charge of anything. The plutocrats pick the horses on both sides, both sides do the bidding of their corporate masters while pretending to be a democracy run by the people and the people buy it hook, line and sinker every time. Hell, they'll even convince the people to vote against their own best interests. Re-edumacate the masses so they believe "what's good for corporations is good for me".
It's an art form, really. America has mastered it, Britain is aping it.

[54anickel]

53. Paris caves in and scraps youth jobs law

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/4ed289aa-c879-11da-b642-0000779e2340.html

The French government on Monday scrapped its controversial labour reform law, bowing to sustained opposition from unions and students that drew millions onto the streets in two months of sometimes violent protests.

Dominique de Villepin, French prime minister, said the First Job Contract (CPE) would be replaced by a raft of measures to help unemployed youth.

The battle over the CPE has thrown the government of President Jacques Chirac into crisis ahead of next year’s presidential elections. It has left Mr de Villepin, his favoured successor, clinging to his job and raised questions about the government’s reform credentials.

Nicolas Sarkozy, the interior minister and rival presidential contender, now leads Mr de Villepin in opinion polls.

Stéphane Rozès, head of French polling company CSA, said Mr de Villepin was one of the “big losers” from the affair, making it hard for him to recover in time for the elections.

Announcing the U-turn, Mr de Villepin argued that the CPE had been an appropriate response to France’s youth unemployment rate of 22.2 per cent. He said he “regretted” that it had not been “understood by everyone”.

more...

[ozymandius]

51. Stocks suffer from anemia... bleeding all over the place.

11:45
Dow 11,099.31 -42.02 (-0.38%)
Nasdaq 2,314.52 -18.75 (-0.80%)
S&P 500 1,289.09 -7.51 (-0.58%)
10-Yr Bond 49.42 -0.21 (-0.42%)
NYSE Volume 876,733,000
Nasdaq Volume 977,990,000

11:30 am : Market bounces off session lows but selling remains widespread across most areas. Treasuries, though, have extended yesterday's recovery efforts, as the yield on the 10-yr note, which came within reach of 5% Friday, has fallen to 4.93%. Nonetheless, the improvement in borrowing costs has had little impact whatsoever on underlying sentiment as market internals still suggest a very negative tone. DJ30 -38.02 NASDAQ -18.15 SP500 -6.78 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2105/719/902 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2157/880/560 mln

11:00 am : Major indices extend their reach into negative territory as geopolitical concerns centered on Iran's nuclear ambitions heat up over the last 30 minutes. In particular, former Iranian President Rafsanjani told Kuwait's Kuna that Iran is producing enriched uranium from 164 centrifuges. The news has rattled an already cautious underlying tone, prompted broad-based consolidation and sent the Dow to a new four-week low. DJ30 -54.35 NASDAQ -22.51 SP500 -8.12 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1955/791/728 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1944/1025/448 mln

[Roland99]

56. Let's see if the Saudi/Russian talks act as a tourniquet.

[54anickel]

52. A World Where Even the Stones Bow to China

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_pesek&sid=aG1mlrsS.Mt0

April 11 (Bloomberg) -- First its people, then the Internet, now the Rolling Stones. Is there anyone or anything China won't try to censor?

OK, China's 1.3 billion people may have little choice in bowing to the Communist Party. The same can't be said of Google Inc., Yahoo! Inc. and other technology giants caving in to Asia's No. 2 economy. In their case it's about money.

Yes, yes, I know -- it's better for Internet leaders to be in China than not, even if they help censor what's really happening there. At least that's what Google, Yahoo, Microsoft Corp. and Cisco Systems Inc. want us to believe.

Really, though, it's about profits. That may be just fine for executives whose job it is to enrich shareholders by tapping into the world's major markets -- like China. But the Stones?

The guys often referred to as ``the world's greatest rock band'' agreed not to perform ``Brown Sugar,'' ``Beast of Burden,'' ``Let's Spend the Night Together,'' ``Honky Tonk Woman'' and ``Rough Justice'' at their first-ever mainland concert on April 8. At a Shanghai press conference, singer Mick Jagger joked that he was ``pleased the Ministry of Culture is doing so much to protect the morals of expatriate bankers and their girlfriends.''

Helping China's Censors

It seems Jagger learned a thing or two about capitalism during his days at the London School of Economics. The Stones may be aging rockers, but they're also businessmen. If the Wal-Marts of the world can get rich exploiting China's workers and environment in ways they can't at home, why should the Stones be held to a higher standard?

more...

[54anickel]

58. Cough Up (Ron Paul)

http://www.house.gov/paul/tst/tst2006/tst041006.htm

April 15th, our national tax day, comes this year just as Congress prepares to pass the 2007 federal budget. If you think paying taxes was painful this year, I’ve got some bad news: the new budget is a grotesque illustration of everything wrong with the federal government. At $2.7 trillion, it’s the largest budget in U.S. history by a long shot. Like it or not, the pressure to raise your taxes will be enormous in coming years no matter who controls Congress. The amount of money government spends, borrows, and prints simply cannot be sustained.

For most people, their income tax return represents their most meaningful interaction with the federal government. It requires them to confess their actions over the past year to the IRS in excruciating detail. It's an annual ritual guaranteed to elicit strong feelings of disgust. Thanks to the deception of income tax withholding, however, some people actually look forward to tax time and a much-anticipated refund. Imagine how quickly Americans would demand lower taxes and spending if they had to write the federal government a check each month.

Most people understandably want a simpler income tax system, but it’s useless to discuss tax reform without spending reform. Who wants a 40% flat tax? Who wants a national sales tax if it adds 50% to the retail price of everything we buy? In other words, why change the tax structure if spending stays the same? Once we accept that Congress needs $2.7 trillion from us, the only question is how it will be collected. The current answer is the labyrinthine tax code, which pits taxpayers against each other in a political scramble to make sure the other guy pays. The truth is that Congress does not need $2.7 trillion, or anything close to it, to fund the proper constitutional functions of the federal government.

snip>

But could America exist without an income tax? The idea seems radical, yet in truth America did just fine without a federal income tax for the first 126 years of her history. Prior to 1913, the government operated with revenues raised through tariffs, excise taxes, and property taxes, without ever touching a worker's paycheck. Even today, individual income taxes account for only approximately one-third of federal revenue. Eliminating one-third of the proposed 2007 budget would still leave federal spending at roughly $1.8 trillion-- a sum greater than the budget just 6 years ago in 2000! Does anyone seriously believe we could not find ways to cut spending back to 2000 levels? Perhaps the idea of an America without an income tax is not so radical after all. It’s something to think about this week as we approach April 15th.

more...

[trogdor]

73. $1.8T

Allowing for inflation, call it $2T. That makes $700B that we're spending that we were not spending before. I'd break it down thus:

$200B additional defense spending (not releated to Iraq)
$100B Iraq and Afghanistan
$150B additional interest on our additional borrowing.
$350B misc. pork.

[54anickel]

59. Rich Valuations and Rising Yields are a Dangerous Combination

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc060410.htm

Stocks aren't cheap. It would be one thing if valuations were only moderately above normal and market action was uniformly strong – particularly if the economy was being driven by some sort of investment boom with strong leadership. That description more or less fits the period up to mid-1998. Market returns to that point were strong and ultimately enduring. Since then, of course, stocks have actually lagged even the depressed returns on Treasury bills, though thrill-seekers can take solace in the fact that stocks have delivered those lousy returns in a very exciting way.

It's entirely another thing for stocks to be roughly double their historical norms of valuation, being led primarily by speculative garbage stocks, in an economy driven not by booming investment but excessive leverage and over-reliance on foreign capital, with no particular leadership – medical, pharmaceutical, technological, manufacturing, or otherwise – and importantly, with interest-sensitive groups such as bonds and utilities breaking down. Bonds and utilities aren't always the groups that break first, but both the 1987 and 1990 declines were preceded by just that sort of action. That's not a forecast about near-term market direction, but my concern about potential market weakness is admittedly elevated here.

As I've noted in recent weeks (see in particular the March 27 comment, my assertion that stocks are about double their normal historical valuations also applies to earnings-based measures like P/E ratios. S&P 500 earnings are presently right at the 6% line that connects historical earnings peaks across economic cycles going back cleanly over the past century. At that elevation of earnings (indeed, even when earnings have been within 20% of that 6% trendline), the P/E ratio for the S&P 500 has historically averaged just 9 or 10, compared with the current level of 18.

snip>

I won't bother mincing words. Given rich global stock market valuations, slumping quality of internal market action, and rising global interest rates, this is not an appropriate time to accept significant market risk. There is no assurance that stock prices will fall, and no assurance that they might not instead rise further. But from the standpoint of a long-term investor, it's useful to look over the past 7+ years of profitless excitement in the stock market and ask whether tracking every fluctuation in the market – even participating in periodic, marginal new highs – is a necessary objective. In my view, the necessary objective is to accept market risk when the likely return/risk profile is attractive, based on observable measures of valuation and market action, and to avoid, hedge, or diversify away those risks that don't carry attractive return/risk profiles on average.

more...

[54anickel]

67. Contemplating Echo Bubbles

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/captainhook041006.html

snip>

Fast forward to today, while stock markets have risen from the abyss, where by any standard many investors where fleeced of a relatively large part of their savings in the tech mania, we cannot help but marvel at the degree of speculation that still exists, albeit more in the hands of fewer and increasingly leveraged players these days. And of course this says nothing of the new and grander bubbles currently playing out in real estate, commodities, etc., all tied together under the debt bubble. Therein, without a doubt in the grand scheme of things this will all prove to be a recipe for disaster, but what is surprising to us, and as suggested above, is the rapid increase of information on the subject, primarily fueled by the rapid advancements in search engines, like Google.

Further to this, and as our larger degree cycle work suggest, with an increasingly concentrated investing population now focused on 'big picture' considerations, it should not be surprising to anybody intensifying negative bets on stocks continue to characterize the trade, where in the US, much of this insurance / speculation is facilitated via options. This of course accounts for the high index related put / call ratios, where institutions, lead primarily by hedge funds, purchase puts to insure their portfolios against leveraged plays in the cash markets. Of course the brokers love this, where they have been more than happy to write these contracts, along with pitting their better-informed trading desks against the hedgers as well. Indeed, this has been a win / win scenario for the brokers, as evidenced by their growing / record earnings, along with the perpetual short squeeze this creates against a backdrop of continuously expanding liquidity provided by the Fed. Albeit, as with a junkie, it's getting harder to 'get off' these days. Never the less, the sickly US stock and bond markets remain inflated, and brokerage stocks continue to rise like magic due what is known as monetization, where the Fed provides liquidity to an otherwise bankrupt system by directly expanding its own portfolio with money they themselves create out of thin air. It's great work if you can get it. (See Figure 1)

Anyways, the question then begs, is this condition set about to change fundamentally? Answer: Allowing for a relatively short-term and shallow correction, not until next year at the earliest in our books. And while some are hypothecating the current inflation cycle still has a good number of years in it based on previous comparable commodity bull markets, we are not so optimistic in this regard based on the understanding shorter term market / business cycles have been superseded by the larger credit cycle now, which is consuming everything in its path. On this basis, and in performing a count on the two preceding Super Cycles of the Dow (see Figure 2), in measuring such things in terms of stock prices, a simple linear projection past previous occurrences puts a likely top for the blue chips in January of 2009. In this respect, even Jim Rogers thinks all things equity will get hit once liquidity becomes an issue just based on what happened in the late 70's and early 80's, and he generally likes to keep his analysis straightforward. Of course this time around we could be subjected to a more extreme hyperinflation sequence courtesy of the new nutbar in charge of the Fed, where he damn well knows he will never be a Paul Volcker.

In fact I would think it's safe to hypothesize Volcher is quiet happy not being in charge of this mess, one that just gets bigger and bigger every day. When he was in charge people had savings, real wages were growing, and the US was the largest creditor nation in the world. Of course the party is always at its best when just getting started, which is what the 70's represented in terms of the mature debt monster we see today, so it's difficult to argue how he would have done under similar conditions compared to present. That being said, the degree of measures authorities are undertaking to keep things afloat today is truly mind-boggling, as well as being unsustainable for much longer.

more...

[ozymandius]

70. losses deepen at 1pm

1:05
Dow 11,091.95 -49.38 (-0.44%)
Nasdaq 2,312.62 -20.65 (-0.89%)
S&P 500 1,288.69 -7.91 (-0.61%)
10-Yr Bond 49.34 -0.29 (-0.58%)
NYSE Volume 1,194,637,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,249,207,000

1:00 pm : Little changed since the last update as the major averages continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges. Energy, however, has inched back into the plus column as oil prices turn positive, but the move has almost as quickly been offset by a reversal in Materials, which has recently slipped into negative territory. DJ30 -48.25 NASDAQ -20.82 SP500 -7.78 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2129/790/1.2 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2261/873/802 mln

[skids]

72. There's a nice flat field for fairie-spotters...n/t

[JNelson6563]

74. 1:23 Update

Dow 11,094.03 47.30 (0.42%)
Nasdaq 2,314.79 18.48 (0.79%)
S&P 500 1,289.01 7.59 (0.59%)
10-Yr Bond 4.932% 0.31


So many signs of strength! Nothin' but blue skies ahead my freinds!

[ozymandius]

77. An 11,000 Dow used to seem so far.

2:30
Dow 11,074.19 -67.14 (-0.60%)
Nasdaq 2,310.60 -22.67 (-0.97%)
S&P 500 1,286.69 -9.91 (-0.76%)
10-Yr Bond 49.36 -0.27 (-0.54%)
NYSE Volume 1,534,486,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,533,840,000

2:00 pm : Major averages continue to chalk up losses across the board in the absence of spirited leadership from a number of blue chips. On the Dow, only five components are trading higher, led by a 5.3% surge in Alcoa (AA 34.56 +1.73), while 9 components are off by at least 1.0%. GE, JPM and MCD recently giving up what little gains they've been able to muster amid broad-based consolidation have kept the Dow near four-week lows. DJ30 -67.23 NASDAQ -22.09 SP500 -9.79 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2203/766/1.43 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2290/888/970 mln

1:30 pm : Range-bound trading persists for both stocks and bonds. With regard to Treasuries, which usually set a more definitive tone for equities, the safe-haven rotation into bonds can be attributed to the same geopolitically-driven concerns that have made stocks less attractive. Not to mention, yields near four-year highs at 4.93% on the 10-yr note are providing sufficient compensation for the risk of further Fed tightening should at least two more hikes this year lift the overnight lending rate to 5.25%.DJ30 -49.89 NASDAQ -19.12 SP500 -7.63 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2141/805/1.33 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2227/930/886 mln

[54anickel]

79. Yep, first quarter's over, the party is winding down. I'm thinking it's

gonna be a long cold summer perhaps leading to that dreaded K-winter? :shrug:

We'll have to wait and see if they have any last minute tricks up their sleeves. Seems the idea of a Plaza redux has been nixed by China. This editorial writer from S Korea seems to be bracing for it.

Won's worrisome rise
http://english.yna.co.kr/Engnews/20060410/560000000020060410084624E5.html

snip>

The Korean won's climb to its highest level in almost eight and a half years on Friday will have different implications for various sectors. For businesses, particularly export-driven firms, it signals the start of another long, painful process to enhance competitiveness through upgrading product quality. For officials, the strengthening currency stresses the need for more careful monetary policies and other macroeconomic management. Going further, the whole nation has to learn to live with a strong currency, both in the short run and with a longer-term perspective.

The won's strength has long been expected, but the monetary authorities were caught off guard by the speed it advanced. Bank of Korea (BOK) officials thought foreign investors' massive remittance of dividends this and last month would ease much of the upward pressure on the local currency. Instead, the foreigners used their investment returns to buy up more Korean shares, driving up the won and prompting the dumping of dollar by local exporters. This is but one example showing the difficulty in forecasting currency movements.

snip>

This notwithstanding, the won's appreciation should be seen in the context of the irreversible trend of global economy. The Washington-based International Institute of Economics reported early this year the Korean currency should be revalued by up to 19.2 percent to reflect its true value, meaning it could hold firm at the 800 won range per greenback in three years. Some experts say Korea should brace up for a "second" Plaza Accord, which boosted the Japanese yen by 62 percent to solve the U.S.'twin deficits in 1985.

snip> I thought this paragraph was sort of cute...the guy's clueless on the US employment and currency issues

There is only one way to tide over such a sweeping appreciation as this: Upgrade the industrial structure. The manufacturing sector should sharply enhance added value by turning out better goods at cheaper prices. Massive investment in research and development is vital for this. A longer-term answer is the development of world-class service industries -- which are relatively free from the currency fluctuation -- as the U.S. has done. After all, a currency's value reflects its country's economic reality.

[54anickel]

76. THE DEATH OF FEAR

http://www.freemarketnews.com/Analysis/164/4465/2006-04-11.asp?wid=164&nid=4465

snip>

The basic idea is an equation where the function F is equal to the United States gold reserve in ounces times the market price of gold in dollars per ounce, divided by the M3 money supply. As you can see, the dollar price of gold indicates the eagerness of the market to accept dollars when it is low, and the fears of dollar valuation problems when it is high. The gold reserve of the United States gives a good number on how the government reflects on the usefulness of this asset, and the M3 money supply gives a figure for the success of the government in using dollars as a currency.

Mr. Turk named his function the Fear index. He suggests that the fear index actually measures the element of fear in market driven investment choices. When fear is falling, or very low, stock prices for the Dow and NASDAQ tend to be quite high. When fear is rising, these mainstream stock indices tend to move sideways or fall dramatically - especially in terms of their gold price.

snip>

Why would fear rise higher? Fear rises when the market perceives a greater value for gold. There are a large number of reasons to expect the gold price to continue higher. These include a supply trap that should be expected to continue for several more years as the red tape delays in getting new mines into production to supply new gold may last five or ten years in various countries. Higher prices also stimulate new exploration, but from discovery to bullion on the street may take sixty months while mines and processing plants are designed, approved (or delayed) and built.

The world is presently at war, once again. Major terror strikes in the United States, in Bali, in Spain, in London, and elsewhere illustrate the extent to which the current war is global. The continuing conflicts over religious issues provoke warfare not only among the major religions (Christianity, Islam, Hinduism, Buddhism) but also among sects of the various religions as seen in the Sunni versus Shi'a conflicts in Iraq today. War and the lack of prospect for peaceful trade and commerce stimulates a rational fear. Terror stimulates irrational fear, as well.

Why may we never know? The Fear Index depends on certain values for its measurement of fear. There are three components of the function: the price of gold, the national gold reserve of the United States, and the M3 money supply.

snip>

However, the key figure that is now missing is the M3 money supply. We have no way of computing the Fear Index without a figure for M3. And, thanks to the machinations of the Federal Reserve, we no longer have any way of computing M3. As of 23 March 2006, not only is M3 not published but the component measurements of large-denomination time deposits, repurchase agreements, and Eurodollars are no longer published.

Say WHAT?!?! :wow:

Sure nuff:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/20060323/

more...

[UpInArms]

80. Fed credibility crucial to dollar faith-Fisher "faith-based currency" WTF!

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-11T183625Z_01_WAT005274_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-FISHER-CREDIBILITY-URGENT.XML

DALLAS, April 11 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will do what it takes to maintain its credibility, which is central to preserving the integrity of the U.S. dollar, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher said on Tuesday.

Alluding to the Fed's dual role of ensuring inflation doesn't "raise its ugly head" while still promoting the fastest possible noninflationary growth, Fisher said, "We seek to get it right. And the answer to your question is we will do what gets it right."

Answering audience questions after a speech to the Dallas Friday Group, Fisher said the U.S. dollar is a "faith-based currency" dependent on the credibility of a central bank.

"In addition to a faith-based currency, we are the currency of the world and we must maintain its integrity. As far as my involvement is concerned, I will spend every ounce of energy doing that. I have no doubt that my colleagues will do exactly the same," Fisher said.

[54anickel]

90. Good grief! There goes what little confidence I had left! n/t

[ozymandius]

91. That's it. I'm done.

Might as well jack up the printing presses and start producing Monopoly money. It will be worth just as much when these clowns are done.

[UpInArms]

81. NYC economy grows at slowest pace in 2 yrs-report

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-04-11T185100Z_01_N11209546_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-NEWYORKCITY.XML

NEW YORK, April 11 (Reuters) - New York City's economy grew at its slowest clip in more than two years in the fourth quarter, and the once red-hot real estate sector cut 1,000 jobs after seven quarters of growth, according to a new report released on Tuesday.

This was the real estate industry's biggest round of job cuts since 2001. The city's economy started shrinking before Sept. 11, but the attacks accelerated what became a roughly two-year downturn.

Mayor Michael Bloomberg, asked about the report at a news conference, said: "Perhaps the biggest impact that the economy can have is if real estate transactions slow down. That will make a major difference in our tax revenues."

<snip>

New York City's 5.8 percent unemployment rate in the latest period was the second highest in the nation, after Detroit's 6.7 percent jobless rate. Washington, D.C. won this race with an unemployment rate of only 3.1 percent.

...more...

[UpInArms]

82. 2:59 EST and all is not well

Dow 11,076.27 -65.06 (-0.58%)
Nasdaq 2,309.63 -23.64 (-1.01%)
S&P 500 1,286.06 -10.54 (-0.81%)
10-Yr Bond 4.934 -0.29 (-0.58%)

NYSE Volume 1,677,639,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,657,985,000

2:30 pm : Stocks remain mired in relatively tight trading ranges, showing little reaction to oil prices trading back above $69 per barrel heading into the close of commodities trading. Adding insult to injury continues to be the Energy sector's inability to follow suit to the upside as investors lock in profits, especially among the oil & gas equipment names (e.g. SLB, HAL, and BHI) that have logged this year's fourth best performance (+25.7%) to date.DJ30 -67.55 NASDAQ -22.15 SP500 -9.78 XOI -0.2% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2190/777/1.54 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2311/887/1.07 bln

2:00 pm : Major averages continue to chalk up losses across the board in the absence of spirited leadership from a number of blue chips. On the Dow, only five components are trading higher, led by a 5.3% surge in Alcoa (AA 34.56 +1.73), while 9 components are off by at least 1.0%. GE, JPM and MCD recently giving up what little gains they've been able to muster amid broad-based consolidation have kept the Dow near four-week lows. DJ30 -67.23 NASDAQ -22.09 SP500 -9.79 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2203/766/1.43 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2290/888/970 mln

[AnneD]

85. This is the mentality we are up against folks,

'The Science Guy' is entertaining and provocative at MCC lecture

<snip>
Nye instead addressed such topics as Mars exploration, global warming and energy consumption, particularly oil and gas. He even ruffled a few religious feathers along the way.

<snip>


Opening with a discussion of Mars and his hopes for further discovery on the neighboring planet, Nye encouraged the audience to take interest in discovery and “change the world,” a mantra he repeated throughout.

Nye indicated that the presence of water in Mars’ atmosphere — evidenced by the planet’s ability to form frost — leads him to believe that there is a strong possibility that the planet once supported life.

The Emmy-winning scientist angered a few audience members when he criticized literal interpretation of the biblical verse Genesis 1:16, which reads: “God made two great lights — the greater light to govern the day and the lesser light to govern the night. He also made the stars.”

He pointed out that the sun, the “greater light,” is but one of countless stars and that the “lesser light” is the moon, which really is not a light at all, rather a reflector of light.

A number of audience members left the room at that point, visibly angered by what some perceived as irreverence.

“We believe in a God!” exclaimed one woman as she left the room with three young children.

http://www.wacotrib.com/news/content/news/stories/2006/04/06/04062006wacbillnye.html?cxtype=rss&cxsvc=7&cxcat=11

.....I went to Baylor University, during the time of Watergate. The students sent a letter of support to Nixon. McClendon Community College was a bit more liberal then, but still conservative. I guess some things haven't changed, they have gotten worse.:eyes:

[wordpix2]

88. Bob Nye was educated at a Quaker h.s.in DC - liberal, antiwar, antiviol

ence. None of these appeal to the fundie Xtians, it appears.

[UpInArms]

87. closing numbers and blather

Dow 11,089.63 -51.70 (-0.46%)
Nasdaq 2,310.35 -22.92 (-0.98%)
S&P 500 1,286.56 -10.04 (-0.77%)
10-Yr Bond 4.932 -0.31 (-0.62%)

NYSE Volume 2,232,876,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,158,923,000

Stocks lost ground across the board Tuesday as renewed geopolitical concerns and rising oil prices overshadowed a banner start for the Q1 reporting season.

The market opened slightly higher as the absence of potentially upsetting economic data placed even more emphasis on a better than expected earnings report from Alcoa (AA 34.12 +1.29) lending credence to a widely expected 11th straight quarter of double-digit profit growth. Rohm & Hass (ROH 49.60 +0.55) raising its Q1 outlook and Nokia (NOK 21.20 +0.80) saying that the average selling price of its handsets in Q1 were stronger than expected were additional sources of early buying support that helped calm early nervousness underpinning by the market's preoccupation with rising oil prices and higher interest rates. At the end of the day, however, modest gains were completely gone, as broad-based consolidation fueled by growing validation about Iran's nuclear ambitions weighed on sentiment and closed all ten economic sectors lower.

Telecom Services turned in the day's worst performance (-1.6%) while Utilities and Health Care also posted losses of more than 1.0%. With regard to the latter, Bausch & Lomb (BOL 49.15 -8.29), which was downgraded by several analysts following the withdrawal of its ReNu contact lens solution, was the biggest drag on the sector. Biotech slipping into negative territory for the year added further weakness.

Technology was another influential leader to the downside, led by losses in excess of 1.3% in semiconductor, hardware and networking, while falling bond yields failed to bring recent buyers of bank and brokerage stocks back to the table. With regard to Treasuries, which usually set a more definitive tone for equities, the rotation into bonds was attributed to the same geopolitically driven, safe-haven buying interest that made stocks less attractive. The 10-year note (+06/32) logged its first back-to-back gain since February, knocking the yield down to 4.92%.

Materials, which benefited earlier in the day from renewed earnings optimism (e.g. AA and ROH), was not able to keep sellers at bay while Energy failed to take advantage of crude oil futures extending their 12% year-to-date gain. Oil prices closed at an eight-month high amid geopolitical unrest and an EIA report that forecasted retail gas prices to reach $2.62 per gallon this summer, up 13.7% from a year ago. Nevertheless, investors locked in some of the gains that have lifted the Oil & Gas Equipment index to the year's fourth best performance and stalled some of the momentum behind Energy. We still have an Overweight rating on the sector, based on projected Q1 EPS growth of more than 42%, but our Market View remains Neutral given high oil prices and uncertainty tied to monetary policy.BTK -1.9% DJ30 -51.70 DJTA -1.0% DJUA -1.0% DOT -1.2% NASDAQ -22.92 NQ100 -0.8% R2K -1.5% SOX -1.5% SP400 -1.0% SP500 -10.03 XOI -0.6% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2272/767/2.12 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2455/803/1.58 bln

[AnneD]

89. Maybe we should have a wager......

if the market drops below 11000 tomorrow or not. Should be fun either way tomorrow.:hi: