U.S. Plan For Flu Pandemic Revealed

[Minstrel Boy]

U.S. Plan For Flu Pandemic Revealed

Washington Post
Sunday, April 16, 2006

President Bush is expected to approve soon a national pandemic influenza response plan that identifies more than 300 specific tasks for federal agencies, including determining which frontline workers should be the first vaccinated and expanding Internet capacity to handle what would probably be a flood of people working from their home computers.

...

The document is the first attempt to spell out in some detail how the government would detect and respond to an outbreak, and continue functioning through what could be an 18-month crisis, which in a worst-case scenario could kill 1.9 million Americans. Bush was briefed on a draft of the implementation plan on March 17. He is expected to approve the plan within the week, but it continues to evolve, said several administration officials who have been working on it.

...

To keep the 1.8 million federal workers healthy and productive through a pandemic, the Bush administration would tap into its secure stash of medications, cancel large gatherings, encourage schools to close and shift air traffic controllers to the busier hubs -- probably where flu had not yet struck. Retired federal employees would be summoned back to work, and National Guard troops could be dispatched to cities facing possible "insurrection," said Jeffrey W. Runge, chief medical officer at the Department of Homeland Security.

The administration hopes to help contain the first cases overseas by rushing in medical teams and supplies. "If there is a small outbreak in a country, it may behoove us to introduce travel restrictions," Runge said, "to help stamp out that spark."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/15/AR2006041500901.html

[saigon68]

1. National Guard be dispatched to cities facing possible "insurrection"

National Guard troops could be dispatched to cities facing possible "insurrection,"

SORRY

++++++++ They appear to be a little tied up for the next 20 years or so

IN A FRIENDLY LITTLE PLACE CALLED IRAQ-NAM

[HereSince1628]

4. Every time they think disaster they want to bring in armed force

Is it the same bat-shit crazy fascist each time, or is the government now just overflowing with them?

[NYC]

25. More health care = less insurrection.

But, they'd rather call out the National Guard. Can't provide health care. That would be communist.

[rainbow4321]

30. "Any community that fails to prepare... will be tragically wrong,"

From the same article:

"Any community that fails to prepare -- with the expectation that the federal government can come to the rescue -- will be tragically wrong," HHS Secretary Mike Leavitt said in a speech April 10.

---------
Translation: Your community is screwed..we will quarantine your neighborhood/city and let you rot.

[NYC]

31. I think we were all supposed to learn from the example

of Katrina.

Homeland Security's FEMA is there to take our money, not help us.

[jamesinca]

38. why will they be wrong...

because this repug led administration and congress do not work for you. This government is not about working for or helping the people, it is about what ever it is they do.

[MUAD_DIB]

6. Maybe the cities in question will get lucky and

have to deal with these types.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x942587

[Media_Lies_Daily]

8. Not only that, but calling them up will cause them to be initially....

...concentrated in one area prior to deployment. That is the very LAST frickin' thing anyone should do when responding to a Pandemic!

[ronnie624]

20. They're just trying to cover all their bases.

Just one more pretext for the imposition of martial law when the other shoe drops.

[jimshoes]

10. Wow, we will no longer

be called rioters or looters looking to feed our families, they will label us as insurgents so it won't seem so bad when they shoot us dead. Wonderful.

[saigon68]

15. I have no doubt "the troops"

Will follow orders as you suggest

[Turbineguy]

17. That's the only real

concern for Bush. Insurrection.

Better hire more body guards for himself.

[AndyTiedye]

28. They Are Worried About an Outbreak of…

…democracy.

[BooScout]

2. Well.....if they handle it twice as well as they did the Katrina crisis...

....then America is doomed. Que Sera, sera!:-(

[leftchick]

3. what about the Federal Troops?

and the new detention centers? Gawd this is awful. :(

[Kailassa]

16. yes, leftchick.

You're one of the few who "get it".

[mcscajun]

5. In the last analysis, we're on our own.

from the same article:

...officials have warned that the federal preparations go only so far. Much is left to the states, communities and even individuals.

"Any community that fails to prepare -- with the expectation that the federal government can come to the rescue -- will be tragically wrong," HHS Secretary Mike Leavitt said in a speech April 10.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/15/AR2006041500901.html

After the debacle that was the Katrina response, any community that fails to prepare will be tragically Moronic, and their leadership Criminally Liable.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

7. "Secure stash of medications"??? How many people will that....

...help? No vaccine currently exists that will be helpful against whatever Avian Flu variant that emerges to be easily transmissable from human to human.

"Retired federal employees would be summoned back to work"??? Right. They're not going to want to risk exposure any more than anyone else. Why would they honor such a request?

If, or when, it's recognized as breaking out in any one country, it will be far too late to attempt to close down transportation routes in and out of the affected country. It takes about three to ten days for a person infected with influenza to begin to show symptoms, even though they will have been contagious long before the first symptoms are noticed.

And calling out the National Guard will do what exactly? They will be in as much risk for getting infected as anyone else.

[iamjoy]

9. Just Look At This Mumps Outbreak In Iowa

if we think we can contain it, that should show us that in the days of air travel, it's impossible t try and contain these things by restricting travel.

At least this time they are telling states and local communities up front that they would basically be on their own, not screwing them like they did New Orleans with Katrina.

[pecwae]

11. Retired federal workers

summoned back to work"? I'd like a little more detail on that aspect of the plan as well.

[NYC]

26. I scanned the article, but I didn't see a reason

for recalling retired federal workers. They don't specify what kind of federal workers. Strange. Right after federal workers, National Guard was mentioned.

[Henny Penny]

36. I think they would be recalled if

current federal workers are too ill to work, too scared to go to work or dead.

There was something in the British plan about forcing retired workers to go back to work in this case by threatening their pensions.

[Mel]

12. yea right whatever

I have no faith in the Bush* ran Empire to do a damn thing for me and mine. They are the tiny minded mental midgets that 'hate the government' why would I expect them to be able govern?

They need to get out of the way and let the big boys and girls run the government. If they haven't stolen every thing that isn't nailed down by now, too bad! Get the heck out of the way we don't need any more Brownie screw ups this is serious just like the other hundreds of things that that they have managed to destroy!

[unhappycamper]

13. "worst-case scenario could kill 1.9 million Americans"

Yea, right. 1.9 million deaths = 0.6% mortality.

Pandemics are usually a little more serious than 0.6%. If the World Health Organization is to be believed,

Large numbers of deaths will occur.

Historically, the number of deaths during a pandemic has varied greatly. Death rates are largely determined by four factors: the number of people who become infected, the virulence of the virus, the underlying characteristics and vulnerability of affected populations, and the effectiveness of preventive measures. Accurate predictions of mortality cannot be made before the pandemic virus emerges and begins to spread. All estimates of the number of deaths are purely speculative.

WHO has used a relatively conservative estimate – from 2 million to 7.4 million deaths – because it provides a useful and plausible planning target. This estimate is based on the comparatively mild 1957 pandemic. Estimates based on a more virulent virus, closer to the one seen in 1918, have been made and are much higher. However, the 1918 pandemic was considered exceptional.

Then it gets interesting. Take a look at this WHO table: Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of Avian Influenza A/(H5N1) Reported to WHO. 109 of the 194 people who have been infected with H5N1 have died. That's a mortality rate of 56.18%.

Here's a few more articles on pandemics:
NYT Op-Ed: Grounding a Pandemic
Time: The Cycle of Death
Miami (Ohio) U: Impact of Infectious Diseases on Development of Human Societies


Scientists continue to revise the world-wide death of the 1918 flu pandemic. I've seen numbers up to 100 million deaths, but we will never know. (It was called the Spanish Flu because Spain had a free press & reported it first.) The origins of the pandemic have been traced to a small town in Kansas outside Ft. Reilly. "The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague In History" by John M. Barry is a pretty good read on the subject. One sentence in Barry's book really jumped out at me: "Influenza killed more people in a year than the Black Death of the Middle Ages killed in a century; it killed more people in 24 weeks than AIDS has killed in 24 years."

[Demeter]

14. Public Health Policies Make the Difference

In the Middle Ages, there was no such concept as public health. Safe water, sanitary sewers, waste treatment, garbage disposal and the like simply didn't exist. In those parts of the world with endemic diseases, those amenities still don't exist. Washing was considered bad for you.

If a nation has some basic understanding and implementation of healthy practices, then epidemics are much less severe, of shorter duration, and more likely to be contained. That's why GOP efforts to slash, burn and cut back funds for public health (any aspect, from clean air and water, to nuclear testing bans, to water tests) makes me so livid! The GOP believes it can take a dump in your living room if it wants to, and that's just peachy. Well, it isn't, and we have to keep telling them so.

Forgot to add....adequate nutrition in the general population is also a means of fighting disease. So cutting WIC and welfare and food stamps is asking for trouble for all of us. Germs don't respect economic classes, or gated communities, or high security mansions.

[unhappycamper]

18. Very true.

Public Health policies and nutrition should have a dramatic impact on the mortality rate.

It's all speculation right now, but even 5% of 280 million is a big number. I might have my tin foil hat on too tight this morning. :tinfoilhat:

[leesa]

19. They sure want that damned flu pandemic, don't they? Now that they have

tinkered with the bird flu and mutated it perhaps it will work this time. They are still trying with the 1914 flu.

[Demeter]

21. I Share Your Suspicions

If it looks like a conspiracy, and sounds like a conspiracy, and acts like a conspiracy......

[oscar111]

22. Germs DO respect gated communities,

That is why the idle rich have so little concern for Katrinas, germs and all disasters.

money buys protection.

Servants can , in the case of the flu... get all the canned food needed for Master, then deliver it to his bedroom door, leave.

Master waits for the hall fan to clear the air, then opens his door, gets the canned food and water, puts nightsoil out, and closes the door.

He is sealed from the pandemic.. by money.

Even the gas for his Rolls comes via servants.

His private doc lives in a house by the garden, for the duration of the epidemic. Medicines are stockpiled for two years.

After Katrina, armored cars went into the city in a long convoy to fetch the money from safes, just to be safe from looters. That is the sort of thing money can do. Which you never think about. It is a different world.

So, the idle rich do not concern themselves over pandemics. Other than dividend checks

[dansolo]

23. Is cancel elections part of that plan?

If they are seriously lagging in the polls in November, I wouldn't put it past them.

[sarcasmo]

24. I feel you are right on with that thought.

Cancel the 08 elections with the flu outbreak and the guard comes in declaring Martial Law. How long will this last? Dictator Bush was born in 2000 thanks to the Supreme Court.

[jamesinca]

39. not cancel elections, but...

I am sure there is, or will be a several billion dollar emergency tax break for the makers of Tamiflu by the time George gets done helping draft a final version.

[lovuian]

27. Wait a minute the Treasury is going to give a country our

printing press??? What countries??? and they could turn on us...
Bad policy very bad policy!!!

"The Treasury Department is poised to sign agreements with other nations to produce currency if U.S. mints cannot operate."

[Henny Penny]

37. Now that is bizarre.

If the treasury can't produce notes because of flu pandemic I can't see that that there will be many people out shopping....

Do they see some other problem ahead? Hyperinflation and not being able to print enough? Would get rid of the debts I suppose....

[rainbow4321]

29. Is this where the "medical draft" comes into play

As a nurse, this whole flu pandemic plan has me worrying about chimp's cronies taking this opportunity to use the fine print on the selective service webpage...keep in mind, this covers every part of the medical field not just nurses. They can have every profession needed to staff a hospital "drafted": respiratory therapists, xray and lab techs, ANY profession needed to fully staff a medical facility.

http://www.sss.gov/FSmedical.htm


MEDICAL DRAFT IN STANDBY MODE
The Health Care Personnel Delivery System (HCPDS) is a standby plan developed for the Selective Service System at the request of Congress. If needed it would be used to draft health care personnel in a crisis. It is designed to be implemented in connection with a national mobilization in an emergency, and then only if Congress and the President approve the plan and pass and sign legislation to enact it. No portion of the plan is designed for implementation in peacetime. If implemented, HCPDS would:

Provide a fair and equitable draft of doctors, nurses, medical technicians and those with certain other health care skills if, in some future emergency, the military’s existing medical capability proved insufficient and there is a shortage of volunteers.

Include women, unless directed otherwise by Congress and the President.

Draft a very small percentage of America’s health care providers into military service. Impact on the availability of civilian health care would be minimal. Those health-care workers whose absence would seriously hurt their communities would be deferred on the basis of community essentiality.

Begin a mass registration of male and female health care workers between the ages of 20 and 45. They would register at local post offices. HCPDS would provide medical personnel from a pool of 3.4 million doctors, nurses, specialists and allied health professionals in more than 60 fields of medicine.

Require minimal training for HCPDS draftees, because they are already skilled personnel

[TexasLawyer]

32. shikimic acid in sweetgum tree seedpods

If worse comes to worse-- here's something good to know. I was looking up how tall sweetgums grow because I had just bought one-- and look what I happened upon! Star anise also contains very high amounts of shikimic acid.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2006-03/acs-stc031706.php

Public release date: 29-Mar-2006
Sweetgum tree could help lessen shortage of bird flu drug

ATLANTA, March 29 — The sweetgum tree grows widely throughout the country and is known for its mace-like green fruit, which are sometimes called "gumballs." Now, this spiny fruit may become an important source of a chemical needed to make a lifesaving drug against bird flu — a drug that is currently in short supply worldwide, researchers say.

Chemists have found that the seeds of the sweetgum fruit contain significant amounts of shikimic acid, the starting material used to produce the main antiviral agent in a much-heralded drug for fighting bird flu. Their findings, which could help increase the global supply of the drug, were described today at the 231st national meeting of the American Chemical Society, the world’s largest scientific society.

Shikimic acid is used to make a generic drug called oseltamivir — best known commercially as Tamiflu® — which is used to fight many types of flu viruses. Some health experts believe that this and similar antiviral drugs could help save lives by slowing the spread of the virus in the absence of a bird flu vaccine, which is still in development.

The drug, which blocks the replication of the flu virus, is being stockpiled worldwide to slow or stop a possible bird flu pandemic that some experts predict could kill millions — if the virus mutates into a form that can spread from person to person. The virus, a strain known as H5N1, primarily afflicts birds at present but has been known to kill a small but growing number of humans who have had close contact with infected birds.

<snip>

Although shikimic acid is found in the leaves and bark of the tree, it is most abundant in the fruit, Poon says. In the mature tree, the fruit emerges as a green seedpod that later dries into a brown, spiny husk, which releases an abundance of tiny, grain-like seeds. To optimize shikimic acid extraction, the gumballs need to be harvested when they are still green and before the seeds have been dispersed, Poon says. Each tree can hold hundreds, if not thousands, of seedpods.

<snip>

[IChing]

33. Bush expected to approve dramatic pandemic flu response plan

BEIJING, April 17 (Xinhuanet) -- U.S. President George W. Bush is expected to approve within days a national pandemic influenza response plan under which the government would expand the Internet and possibly permit foreign countries to print U.S. currency during a flu pandemic.

Washington Post reported on Sunday that the document is the first to spell out how the U.S. government would detect and respond to a flu outbreak and continue to function through what could be an 18-month crisis capable of killing up to 1.9 million Americans.

The U.S. Treasury Department is poised to sign agreements with other nations to produce currency if U.S. mints cannot operate, according to the report. The Pentagon is considering stockpiling millions of latex gloves and the Department of Veterans Affairs has developed a drive-through medical exam to quickly assess patients who suspect they have been infected.

The 240-page response plan identifies more than 300 specific tasks for federal agencies, including determining which frontline workers should be vaccinated first and expanding the Internet to accommodate a likely flood of people working from their home computers, according to the newspaper.>>>>snip..........http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-04/17/content_4433336.htm


I know this is China news however, sometimes they are more reliable or just as unreliable than the Washington Post these days
who they credited in the story. I am trying to track down other links.

Anyway it would be good for someone to get a hold of this 240-page response plan
and read the 300 specific tasks for federal agencies

The question of sending currency plates to any foreign govt is outsourcing in a typical Bush business blunder, sorta like him trading Sammy Sosa
but with the disastrous response of a Kitrina.

[thecrow]

34. Isn't it odd how "they" can produce such a detailed plan as this

for something which does not exist, but not, in 8 months, get anywhere with the catastrophic reality that DID hit us?

Is it any wonder why people cannot believe in them?

[NYC]

35. If U.S. mints cannot operate?

What in the world are they preparing for? I think we can survive the bird flu better than we can survive this government.

[IChing]

41. "Print money in foreign counties" involves moving

Not just the plates that make the money but the machinery that checks the processes of the printing.

[NYC]

42. Name one reason that would be necessary.

???

[gkhouston]

44. where do they think they'd be moving

to get away from the flu? Look, H5N1 is real, and if it goes human-to-human without becoming less lethal it could be Very Bad News. Not 1918 bad news, more like 1348 -- one third to one half of the country gone. But I don't know how these crazy fuckers think they could escape that sort of calamity and take their effin' toy printing press with them unless they're planning on going to a desert island somewhere and repelling all boarders. They gonna commandeer Puerto Rico for the duration? :crazy:

[NYC]

47. Why would they need to be printing money?

With or without a lockdown/quarantine/isolation, why would they need to print money?

And if we do need to print money, are they suggesting that nobody will be working during that time? Nobody?

Just how long is everybody going to stay home? No grocery store workers? So, how can anyone buy food? And if we don't buy food, we won't need money. Why move the printing press to print more money if everyone is staying home, and no one is touching or exchanging money?

If some people are working, such as firemen, grocery store workers, utility workers, why will it be okay for them to congregate, but not the money printers?

I just don't understand this desperate need to print money during the flu, no matter how bad the epidemic is.

[IChing]

48. I know, something really stinks to high heaven on that one

what is the logic and rational behind it?

Is this report something that really hasn't been read, not unlike the Patriot Act?

I found it truly bizarre.

[NYC]

49. No matter how much I think about it, I can't come up

with a justification for running the printing press. Keep thinking about it. Maybe one of us will think of something.

Or, maybe one of us will figure out what they are planning to do to us. I'm thinking of the Twilight Zone or Outer Limits. The book, To Serve Man, was a cookbook.

[WinkyDink]

50. Some Bush/Cheney family member must be part of a deal to

yes, privatize the printing of our money.

[Henny Penny]

52. I think they will say...

something like.... look all the money is contaminated with flu virus, so we must replace it with nice crisp new notes..... and they will print the original number of notes in circulation, multiplied by a very large number.

I think they announced recently that they were no longer going to publish the amount of money in circulation, and since all the notes will be crisp new ones, no one will notice a thing.

[NYC]

53. The M3 report was discontinued.

Our paper money is treated with an anti-bacterial agent. I don't remember what, and I've lost the information.

Doesn't mean they couldn't use it as an excuse, though. I think you are right about the mulitiplication.

[Henny Penny]

54. i could be right...

but all of my post is based purely on speculation on the part of moi. Still, sometimes it is the only way to uncover the truth.

I am finding it hard to see why if things are so bad that
a)money must be printed at all, and
b)why it must be printed in other countries.

The US is a very large country compared to a lot of countries here in Europe, surely they could do the printing in some other part of the US rather than abroad. And what countires do they intend to use?

When they do stuff that doesn't make any sense, I always think we are missing a big and probably scary, bit of the jigsaw.

[PATRICK]

40. Drugs and

Immunization Emergency or simply, D.I.E., is a bold new initiative to deal with the health concerns of citizens now and their rioting when they find out how it works in practice.

Once again this best of all possible presidents leaps to the fore with a plan that will undoubtedly be every bit as effective as his past glorious efforts and their unfortunate results and shortages.

[Buns_of_Fire]

43. Where does the plastic sheeting and duct tape come into this?

Or FEMA suggesting that drinking lots and lots of orange juice is a valid curative? I hope Chucklenuts-the-Unitary will forgive me for not panicking just yet.

[B3Nut]

51. Why, you wrap the plastic sheeting around your head

then secure it with duct tape, and breathe deeply. Voila! Bush-style bird-flu cure! Success guaranteed or your money back!

:sarcasm:

Todd in Beerbratistan

[Akoto]

45. Does this mean I don't need my canned tuna? n/t

[Media_Lies_Daily]

46. REX-84....

FEMA Concentration Camps:
Locations and Executive Orders
<http://www.mindfully.org/Reform/2004/FEMA-Concentration-Camps3sep04.htm>

Want to know if camps exist in your state? Read the list.