Oil Rises to $70 in New York on Gasoline Demand, Iran Standoff

[sabra]

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aU56ANFaV6fE&refer=home

Oil Rises to $70 in New York on Gasoline Demand, Iran Standoff

April 17 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil topped $70 a barrel in New York, nearing a record, on concern changes to U.S. gasoline content will disrupt supplies as the peak driving season begins.

Gasoline is trading close to a six-month high as U.S. refineries replace a chemical additive with ethanol to reduce environmental damage. Oil also gained because of Iran's defiance of United Nations calls to stop enriching uranium.

``There are two reasons for the increase, one is the physical limits in the oil products and then the tensions in the Middle East,'' said Naohiro Niimura, vice president of derivatives at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in Tokyo. ``The tensions have the funds buying back into the energy side.''

Crude oil for May delivery rose as much as 68 cents, or 1 percent, to $70 barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange in after-hours electronic trading. That was the highest since Aug. 31. The contract traded at $69.78 at 12:39 p.m. in Singapore. Prices have climbed 15 percent this year.

[bluestateguy]

1. It's good thing we abandoned Clinton Administration energy policies

That $30 a barrel oil and $1.20 a gallon gas was killing us.

[madrchsod]

5. clinton? try carter..wait a minute

they are both democrats that, for better or worse, were the two best presidents since johnson, oh yes he was a democrat also

[Deja Q]

19. I concur. Carter told the truth on oil...

Clinton rescinded the 55MPH federal speed limit; making speeders less an illegal nuisance and increasing our need for oil that much more... 65MPH uses much more fuel to achieve and maintain than 55MPH...

[Bacchus39]

28. 75 mph out west

n/t

[Deja Q]

18. Clinton gave us NAFTA. And I now say we're in an energy crisis.

And guess what NAFTA says the US can do to countries who signed it during an energy crisis?

[Township75]

22. What did he do about mandatory upgrades for MPG in vehicles?

I seem to recall the SUV craze beginning during his presidency.

[lovuian]

2. everybody in the market knows we are bombing Iran

sooner not later... Gas prices are going to throw us into inflation
and then a depression... if its not stopped...

Wages are going to have to go up!!!

[az chela]

8. and all this thanks to the bush crooks!!!!!When are people

going to say NO MORE!!!!!

[David in Canada]

10. Exactly!

Remember, the amount one is paid in raw numerical figures is worthless. It's how much you can buy with it. For example, if you make $1 million a week but a loaf of bread costs you $20,000, you're in deep poverty. Conversely, if you made $10/week but could pay your utility bill for $3/month, you'd be living high off the hog!

The rises for inflation are a mere pittance compared to the costs of living. Real inflation and official inflation are two totally different creatures altogether.

[pdurod1]

12. All is going according to zee plan...

Then the Repubs swoop in and save the day, after we make a few more oil exec's billionaires.

[NEOBuckeye]

3. Here comes $3.00 per gallon gas!

How long before it hits $4.00?

[David in Canada]

11. Squeeze Out!

Due to the precarious state of America's national economy plus most families microeconomies, a substantial rise in gas prices will cause personal financial collapse.

The psycholical fallout from this is going to be suicides. Also, people are going to be enraged as Americans have been groomed to beliee that 'if you work hard and do what you gotta do, you'll be alright'. Once that meme has been cruelly shattered, the effects on American society, from the nation as a whole down to the neighbourhoods, is going to one of despair, bitterness, resentment, and revenge.

This can, and probably will, be ugly.

[Tight_rope]

97. Here in Houston we are already at $3:00...in some parts.

With the way things are going with Iran...I see $4 by mid July.

[pinniped]

4. Boy, those barrels were sure cheap, many, many moons ago.

April 1999~

- The 1989 price spike followed the Exxon Valdez accident and the 1991 spike occurred when crude oil prices reached $40 a barrel before the Gulf War - but dropped to $25 after the U.S. began bombing Iraq.

January 2000~

Chevron said its fourth-quarter revenue climbed 50 percent to $10.98 billion from $7.28 billion a year ago. Crude prices nearly doubled in the interval to about $24.50 a barrel.

April 2000~

- From a per-barrel price range in the high teens, oil rose to $34 per barrel three weeks ago.

- With oil prices averaging almost $29 a barrel during the quarter -- more than double a year ago -- gas prices have soared to record levels.

- What precipitated the decline in gas prices is last month's agreement by OPEC ministers to increase oil production by 7 percent. Since then, the price of crude oil has dropped to nearly $25 a barrel from nearly $35 a barrel.

- Crude oil for June delivery was recently 9 cents higher at $25.97 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil is 47 percent higher than a year ago. Prices fell from a nine-year high of $34.37 a barrel on March 8 after OPEC members signaled their intention to boost output. <

That asshole in chimp sure didn't take long to fuck those Merkans.

[Skink]

6. Nobody takes a vacation. Problem solved.

[David in Canada]

7. $71/bbl now!

According to Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com/energy), oil has now reached US$71/bbl! It's going up quick.

Also, gold is over $605/oz and silver is up to over $13.20/oz!!!

This is a likely indicator of an attack on Iran very soon.

Remember, money talks and bullshit walks!!!

[cliss]

9. OMG....that is definitely

a new high. I think the highest it's ever been is $70.35/bbl, right after Katrina.

Regarding an attack on Iran; it may not be an indication of that. Remember, Hugo Chavez is threatening to cut off oil supplies to the U.S. Nigeria's oil production is shut down completely, and it's #5 of our oil imports. I don't think we buy any oil from Iran, even though they are OPEC's #2 exporter.

Is this correct?

[David in Canada]

13. Iran, Oil & the World

Remember, it's not (yet!) an official price as the closing bell for the London exchange haven't rung yet. It's a 24-hour market, I believe in a 3 legged tour through Tokyo, London and New York. The daily prices and the subsequent records are listed as per closing prices. The indications point toward it going up. It might hit US $75/bbl by friday, if current trends continue.

You are correct. The US buys no oil from Iran, at least not officially (sanctions). The US buys mainly from Venezuela, Nigeria, and North Sea crude.

However, Europe buys heavily from Iran as does Russia and China. If their Iranian supplies get cut off, they need a new market. That means heavy bidding in Venezuela and Nigeria. Due to Dubya's meddling in Venezuela, Chavez will be tempted to endulge in schadenfreude and give the US a big middle finger. Also, remember, China needs Iranian oil for it's development and survival. They have already thought ahead and are purchasing rights to Canadian shale. The huge massive demand and reduced supplies might alone rise the price to near inaffordability for the rest of the world as well.

Lastly, the human race, at 6.5 BILLION people, need the modern technology that powers our world to remain intact. We have too many people to subsist on a 18th century technological level. Besides, every bit of infrastructure that made 18th century life possible has been removed due to obsolescence.

The world is interconnected beyond belief. There is no nowhere anymore.

This is a horrible, albeit 100% real possibility.

[modrepub]

14. Only f-ing Bush

and his incompetent repub cronies could spend half a trillion dollars on the middle east and still have me pay $3+ a gallon! Don't forget silver @ ~ $13 an ounce (it was at $4 or so about two or three years ago). Need a good "Thanks Bush" from Kelly and Bud Bundy right now.

[newswolf56]

15. Three points, all of them terrifying:

(1)-Petroleum prices, like the prices of gold, silver and real estate, reflect the increasing worthlessness of the dollar;

(2)-As petroleum becomes ever more the equivalent of a scarce metal, there is literally no limit to how high the price may climb; my own belief is we may see $5 per gallon by autumn and will certainly see $4 per gallon by midsummer;

(3)-Totally unlike every other industrialized nation on the planet, the U.S. has steadfastly refused to build adequate public transport, the consequences of which refusal will inflict a fuel-price crisis that will be far more ruinous here than anywhere else, with massive unemployment, unprecedented homelessness and -- eventually -- precisely the widespread civil disorder the corporate ruling class seeks to provide Bush with an excuse for imposing overt (and undoubtedly permanent) fascist dictatorship.

While these projections may seem extreme, the fact of the matter is that the only way capitalism can survive in a climate of worsening natural-resource shortages is by morphing into fascism (and quite possibly overt Nazism beyond that). But the key to the apocalyptic equation is the fact the U.S. has steadfastly refused to build adequate public transport (which now forever denies it any means of coping with the Peak Oil and post-Peak-Oil crises), and the parallel fact that -- since the last five administrations have methodically destroyed the New Deal socioeconomic safety net -- there is (again in contrast to every other industrialized nation on the planet) no U.S. capability to alleviate the hardships of the economic dislocations. This means the sociology of the nation will quickly be reduced to that characteristic of the Third World: homelessness, starvation and disease on a scale hitherto unimaginable.

And that's not even factoring in the additional (and now utterly unavoidable) ruination inflicted by global warming.

Not only will life become unprecedentedly difficult. For Americans -- that is, for all of us who are not part of the tiny ruling class -- life will never again do anything but get steadily worse. The dream is ended: forever.

[saigon68]

17. Blood will flow in the streets

Hey Chuck Schumer take the guns away

[happyslug]

44. I doubt it will get to $4 a Gallon

For you will have demand destruction starting at about $3 a gallon. Yes, people will STOP buying gasoline when they can NO LONGER AFFORD IT. They will opt for MOtorcycles, Mopeds and Bicycles (and in that order) to reduce they use of oil to a level they can afford. The biggest user of oil is the US and if just 1/4 of the commuting population switch from cars to Small to mid-size motorcycles you will have demand destruction as commuting goes from cars getting 20 mpg to Motorcycles getting 50 mpg.

Furthermore the Trucking industry will see a reduction is speed, lets say from 55 mph on the Highway to 40 mph. Through I do not see this until Gasoline gets above $5 a gallon (Generally people will opt for human costs when Gasoline reaches they wage on a per hour basis).

In the Northwest Corridor I see more and more people opting for using the Train. It is the only area with what I call "Adequate Train Service(Trains going BOTH ways at least 4 times a day). In the rest of the Country the train option will have to wait (For example the trains in the Northeast are electric trains getting their power from overhead pantograph's, installation of such a system on the rest of the train system will takes at least a decade to even start, and will NOT start unless oil stays above $5 a gallon for the whole Decade).

Oil based mass transit (Diesel Trains, Buses etc) can be expanded quicker, but they use OIL as a power base and while more efficient on a gallon per person transported basis still uses some oil). This is thus a LONG-TERM solution (like electric based trains, streetcars and LRVs) as is the conversion to smaller more fuel efficient cars (Which will occur before the building of mass transit systems, it was the switch to smaller cars in the 1970s that permitted the US to better withstand the oil crisis of 1979 than the oil Embargo of 1973, even through the price of oil went up MORE in 1979 than it had in 1973).

While it will take a LONG TIME to convert from today's transportation and lifestyles (The 1970s was the only decade in the 20th century where people move to the Inner city and the Country than to the Suburbs, the oil glut of the early 1980s killed this movement) such changes start within Five years of the jump in oil prices. New transportation systems take longer i.e .5-10 years to get implemented. While it takes TIME for these long term changes to kick in, they is a LOT people can do to reduce oil consumption TODAY. Walking, Biking ar ethe two most obvious, but buying a moped will reduce one's personnel oil usage tremendously (A small motorcycles, i.e. less than 600cc, will also reduce one's oil usage through not like a Bicycle or Moped, but with a Small Motorcycle one can commute to work in about the same time period as a person can do so in a car).

Given what people CAN DO in the short term, I do NOT see gasoline getting to $4 a gallon and definitely not to $5 a gallon. People will start to transport themselves some other way to save fuel (And some people will quit they job for once gasoline gets over $5 a gallon they can NOT pay for the gasoline to get to work, but I have said that in previous threads and you can look up those threads to see WHY such people must quit they job if Gasoline gets to $5 a gallon).

A further factor is if Gasoline gets to $4 a gallon people will STOP shopping and there go the whole Consumer economy and with it a reduction in oil demand. No, Once gasoline gets above $3 a gallon you are talking about real harm to the Economy and real harm to people and BOTH harms will force people to STOP using Oil while before Gasoline gets to $4 a gallon.

[newswolf56]

45. You assume -- wrongly -- the laws of supply and demand still work.

They don't. These fuel prices aren't functions of supply and demand. Like everything else that's being done to us -- downsizing, outsourcing, looting of pensions, forcible wage reductions, forcible give-backs, destruction of the socioeconomic safety net and soaring prices (not to mention the fact the U.S. has by far the worst -- and most steadily worsening -- health care, education and public transport in the industrial world) -- all this is about the concentration of wealth, not just in terms of skyrocketing executive pay and the highest profits in human history, but the concentration of political power to protect that wealth: the methodical subversion of American liberty and its replacement with theocratic fascism.

All of this is connected: it is, quite simply, the ruling class making certain it will weather the coming storms of environmental apocalypse (global warming) and post-Peak Oil socioeconomic collapse.

And because that is precisely what it is, the ONLY way we can make sense of it is by viewing it through the historical lens of class-struggle: hence the greater-than-ever relevance of Marx, who by capitalism's response to the environmental and natural-resource crises is proven to have been absolutely right after all.

Though Marx is only half the solution. (The other half is to be found in the principles of ecofeminism.)

Even so, it is far too late. The sorts of rail systems you envision will NEVER be built; the ruling class will simply not allow its money to be so spent, and in any case the ever-upward price of real estate -- the one true yardstick of the deepening worthlessness of the dollar -- has already reached the point that land acquisition for rail systems has become impossible. And while children can learn to ride motorcycles, adults cannot; one is either a biker by the time one is a teenager or one takes up motorcycling as as adult and becomes a very dead biker soon afterward: the United States has the highest incidence in the world of bicyclists and motorcyclists wantonly killed by automobile drivers.

Bottom line, I think the time will come -- and very soon, in a matter of months not years -- when we will nostalgically consider $3 per gallon gasoline as having been inexpensive. These soaring fuel prices will monkeywrench every economy save those of the Islamic oil theocracies, but the only nation they will totally destroy is the United States -- precisely because the U.S., a nation run exclusively by, for and of the greedy, will do absolutely nothing, not now, not ever again, to protect its peoples from the unprecedented looming hardships.

The American Dream and the American Experiment are both dead, murdered by capitalism and never to be resurrected.

We are entering -- or more accurately resuming -- the Dark Age that began with the Edict of Milan 1,693 years ago, and the greatest darkness ever -- a global collapse of truly unprecedented magnitude -- is fast encroaching. The only question is whether socialism will survive the forthcoming frenzy of invasions and coups that U.S. capitalists will launch in their attempt to seize or dominate all the world's resources. If socialism survives, humanity may yet again have another chance to fulfill its formerly bright potential even in the post-apocalyptic climate of eternal scarcity; if not, the Dark Age will last forever -- that is, until humanity itself becomes extinct.

_________
Edit: typo.

[happyslug]

46. Even Marx agreed with Supply and Demand

And was a great admirer of Adam Smith. Marx expanded on Smith observation that any economic policy that helps the working class helps the economy in that Marx observed that over time return on investment Declines. The best way to see this is the Railroad industry. In the between 1840 and 1870s you had massive expansion as the Railroads built what even today are the most profitable Railroad lines in the Country. Once these main lines were completed the Railroads stated to build offshoots of these lines. These lines costs as much as the main lines to build (on a per mile basis) but profit from these off-shoots fell and they went to less and less profitable places (New York To Chicago was extremely profitable route, but the Chicago to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan cost almost about the same BUT brought with it a lot less profit). Thus over time profits margins DECLINE and once these get to low pressure is brought to get the profit margins back up to what they were in the first place. This cause widespread fraud (and pressure to reduce "Costs" including wages) and then Revolution (Marx is more complex then this but I am trying to reduce him to a paragraph and avoid his idea of Class Warfare).

As to the effectiveness of a US drop in Oil usage all we have to do is look at the 1997 East Asia Collapse. This Collapse cause the use of oil in the Far east (Excluding China and Japan) to drop drascally causing an over supply of oil which lead to the sub $1 a gallon in the US. Since that time the Far East has NOT recovered in terms of oil usage (Through China has more than compensated for this). Given that US Minimum wage Workers CAN NOT pay their rent, buy food, and buy Gasoline to operate they car to get to work when Gasoline gets to $4 a gallon, such workers MUST stop using Gasoline and thus causes a shortage of oil.

Now why can't Minimum wage workers pay their rent, by food and Gasoline? First look at how much a minimum wage workers earns in a year. The work year is 2080 hours (52 weeks at 40 hours per week equal 2080). For ease of calculation I will use 2000 hours per year. Minimum wage is $5.15 per hour (I will use $5 an hour for ease of calculation). Thus a Minimum wage worker EARNS $10,000 a year. Out of this comes his 7$ Social Security Taxes and his 2-3% Local and State taxes (Total about 10%, often higher). Thus your typical Minimum wag worker only has $9000 a year to spend after taxes. If our workers is in Public Housing he has to spend 30% of his income on rent and utilities (most buy more) or $3000, leaving our Worker with $6000. There are 365 days in a year and most people eat three meals a day, assuming $3 a meal (very cheap) you are over $1000 spent on Food leaving our Typical minimum wage worker less than $5000 to pay for his or her other bills including his or her car and gasoline for that car.

A typical driver drives a car that gets 20 mpg about 15,000 miles per year. Thus a typical driver uses 750 gallons a year in gasoline. Insurance, repairs and maintenance (and license fees) will run about $1000 a year. Thus before we discuss Gasoline our worker is down to $4000 to pay for his gasoline. So how much is $750 gallon going to cost our worker? At $2 a gallon $1500 per year. At $3 a gallon $2250 per year. At $4 a gallon $3000 a year. At $5 a gallon 3750 a year.

I can NOT see a person spending less than $1000 on medical care, clothing, shoes, and recreation (even if it is only Thunder-bird) and other expenses of living not mentioned above, let alone less than $250 for such items. Thus somewhere between $3 and $4 a gallon such workers will HAVE to stop buying gasoline for he or she can no longer afford it. If this does not cause a surplus in gasoline, then as the price of Gasoline goes up more and more people will be priced out of the market until you have a surplus and price stabilizes (Please note one of the Characteristics of things in short supply is a constant up and down pricing of the item as people buy and then don't' buy affecting the demand and thus the price).

I for-see this up and down pricing for the next 100 years, as the price goes higher and higher as we have access to less and less oil.

My point here is while the high price is helping the oil Companies, the oil companies are NOT driving the price up. The main reason for this is high prices discourage use AND CAUSES PROFITS TO DROP. The ideal situation for any monopoly is to set a price to make an excess profit BUT NOT SO HIGH AS TO DISCOURAGES PEOPLE FROM BUYING THE PRODUCT. That maximizes profits (which is way Bush jr i constantly trying to get the Arabs to pump more oil so his oil buddies can have more oil to sell).

No we are in a REAL SHORTAGE for it has all the indications of a REAL SHORTAGE. In fake shortages prices just go up a little, not triple as it has in the last three years.

[newswolf56]

47. I think you miss my point. I'm not debating the reality of the...

supply-and-demand cycle; I'm saying that capitalism -- in essence the elevation of infinite greed into ultimate virtue -- has overridden all considerations of supply-and-demand in its savage onslaught to seize the greatest possible amount of wealth in the shortest possible time: this in preparation for the double-edged apocalypse of global warming and the exhaustion of the finite world petroleum resource. Hence my previous statement that the constraints of supply and demand no longer function. Hence too ALL of the policies -- foreign and domestic -- of the Bush Administration.

Your notion that U.S. workers will be allowed to stop buying gasoline is absurd on the face of it. Precisely because capitalist greed has denied the U.S. adequate public transport -- and in most areas, no public transport at all -- we have no choice but to buy gasoline: we literally have no other way to get to work. Hence we will max out our credit cards, grow ever more clinically obese as the inevitable result of eating cheaper foods, grow ever sicker as a result of having no health care, and meanwhile pray to the sadistic Abrahamic god for relief that -- in our heart of hearts -- we know will never come: all this as we helplessly await the final moments of our ruination. In other words (and I don't know why so many people have such difficulty grasping such a simple concept), the (now-never-to-be-remedied) lack of public transport plus the (ever-increasing) unaffordability of gasoline spells our doom: when we can no longer get to work -- and in MOST parts of the U.S. that is exactly the reality we are facing -- we will be flung into precisely the joblessness, homelessness and total disenfranchisement we witness in the aftermath of Katrina: a true portrait of America's inescapable future. (And that is not even factoring in what will happen to us come winter, when we can no longer afford to heat our homes, and we and our loved ones begin freezing to death -- not by the hundreds or thousands, but by the millions.)

Even the most optimistic scenarios project the breathtakingly sudden reduction of human technology to mid-19th-Century (pre-Petroleum Era) levels: the total and eternal end of flight (save by balloons); the return of external-combustion engines, steam propulsion and horse-and-buggy transport; the end of electrification save as a very limited, local phenomenon (the result of the total industrial collapse the lack of petroleum makes inevitable); the resultant death of science save as an extension of agriculture and environmental studies (without industry there can be no science except as noted) -- in other words, the end of the world as we know it, and after TEOTWAWKI (if I may be allowed to bring back that Y2K term), a brutally quick famine-and-disease-fostered decline in which about three-fourths of the world's population starves to death or dies of various plagues. As I say, this is the BEST scenario. The worst scenario projects that within a generation the entire human population will be reduced to a New Neolithic -- one from which the only escape is extinction.

In this context, the ultimate question -- indeed the ONLY question -- is what kind of society we want to live in. Do we want to live in the society typified by the United States -- that is, the society we already see in the aftermath of Katrina, where the rich become ever more obscenely richer as the rest of us are thrust ever more deeply into degradation of a magnitude hitherto known only in the Third World? Or do we want to live in a society in which there is equal sharing of resources and hardships? One such post-Peak-Oil society is already evolving:

http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/articles/657

Alas that alternative is forever forbidden us by the fact the government is no longer our own, nor ever will be ours again: government at all levels of the U.S. is now (and has been for about the last three decades) totally and without exception the tool of the ruling class: the means by which wealth and the wealthy are protected, the means by which all the rest of us are increasingly subjugated and savaged. Marx will enable us to understand what is being done to us, and the principles of ecofeminism will show us how to build a sustainable human society, but we are already so oppressed by our corporate masters (even in Canada) that only intervention from without will allow such alternatives to bloom anywhere in North America. And there is no longer any force on earth capable of such intervention -- nor will the capitalists ever allow such a force to come into being again.

[Occulus]

94. Does that last hold true for electricity as well?

I seem to recall prices spiking, and more than a little bit, while Enron was in control of electricity and such out west.

Can't greed cause the exact same symptoms as a major, long-term shortage- especially if one creates a major shortage out of greed?

[happyslug]

95. You must understand Monopoly power.

Whenever you have a Monopoly, the Monopoly tries to MAXIMIZE profits. The Monopoly does so by charging over and above what the price should be, but not so high as to force people NOT to buy the product.

In the case in Enron, you had such a monopoly situation for California and Enron proceeded to push the price up. Enron's downfall was it push the price up so high people made efforts to REDUCE USAGE (by buying more efficient lighting and electrical systems). Once this reduction in demand kicked in (it took a while) Enron became undone (and one of the reason Enron subsequently collapsed was it could NOT continue to get the excess profit it had when it first decided to push up the price of Electric ty).

A secondary problems for a Monopoly is that other producers enter the market and drive down the price, this also happened (For example the City of LA which owes it own electrical system SOLD excess electricity to other Electrical Companies previously supplied by Enron, the excess power was the product of Good management by the City of LA of its Electrical System AND its users buying more efficient electrical appliances which opened up power for the LA power plants to other areas of California).

A true Monopoly NEVER charge the rates Enron did (Look at AT&T before its breakup, it had tremendous Monopoly Power but keep the price of Phone calls "LOW" to maximize profits by encouraging people to call long distance, now this "low" price was "low" compared to previous decades but high to what it should have been.). A true monopoly wants to maximize its profits and that is by selling THE MOST GOODS AT THE HIGHEST PRICE. To High a Price, by itself DROPS DEMAND so the number of items SOLD DROPS (as does Profits) . Thus a true monopoly charges just a little over what the price should be to MAXIMIZE its profits without losing to many buyers of its product.

In the case of Enron, Enron was on its last legs, it was ready to collapse. Enron was a house of Cards. Thus long term profits was NOT its goal, instead Enron wanted (and needed to survive for a few more months) a massive influx of Cash. Enron saw the low water levels in the Pacific NorthWest which meant the whole West Coast had lost its reserve of Electrical production. Enron then manipulated the situation to max its IMMEDIATE profits in an effort to save itself (in effect robbed the bank, planning on never returning which a true monopoly never does). Enron used its connections with the Bush Administration to prevent Controls or even the release of Electrical power INDEPENDENT of Enron. This was greed of a bank robber NOT a monopoly, monopoly want LONG TERM MAXIMUM PROFITS, which was NOT Enron's plan for California.

Yes, people get hurt by such greed as Enron did, but people will adjust by NOT buying the Product, or reduce their purchase of the product (and third parties will enter the market to share in the excess profits). Thus over time such Greed leads to the downfall of Robber Baron companies like Enron. Enron was NOT smart enough to realize once you have a monopoly you only raise your rates enough to maximize long term profits. This slight increase in price increases your profits, encourages few people to opt for substitute of your product, or to NOT buy your product AND gives little incentives for third parties to enter the market. Thus true monopolies do NOT price grouch the public by to much, it is NOT the way to maximize long term profit.

[depakid]

93. I bet the tipping points are even higher that $4.00 per gallon

And I reckon that $4.00 per gallon is easily reachable, depending on any number of foreseeable contingencies. True, I see more and more people using mass transit here in Portland- Bikes are starting to pile up on Light Rail- but traffic is just as packed, and people in most places (like Seattle) don't have decent mass transit.

Yep- they're going to do without alright- but it won't be so much without gas as other things.

Better hope for a quiet, uneventful summer.

[happyslug]

99. You have to do without if you can not afford to buy the gasoline you need

See my post #46 above for details, but in a nutshell the simple answer is once the price of Gasoline get near $4 a gallon minimum wage workers can NO LONGER DRIVE TO WORK (i.e they can NO LONGER AFFORD THE GASOLINE TO GET TO WORK). Given there are few other transportation options this will lead to a crisis in the economy over and above these workers NO longer buying gasoline to get to work.

These two interrelated crisis (Workers NOT getting to their jobs AND the affect this lack of low costs employees will have on the Economy) will lead to a reduction in demand for oil (and with it a price stabilization before it gets to $4 a gallon and then a subsequent price decline as supply exceeds the now reduced demand).

Now I am talking only short-term, i.e. less than a year. Once you start to loom at the problem LONG TERM (1-5 years) other option kick in. People will replace their old SUV for much smaller cars (Reducing demand for gasoline), people will look at moving closer to work (To reduce gasoline usage). People may even DEMAND mass transit (through this will be a 5-15 year plan to reduce oil consumption).

The problem with most long term solution is that once peak oil hits you will seen a steady decline in oil production which will require more and more demand destruction to keep the price of gasoline even (or the price will go up and up FORCING Demand destruction). Thus you will see a rapid up and down movement in the price of oil, the over all price will be upward, but you will see rapid decline as people stop using oil they can no longer afford (a downward price spike) and then resume using oil once it drops to a price they can afford (which starts a new upward price spike). This will go on and on till oil is no longer a serious factor in our energy picture (in about 100-140 years).

In many ways these up and down spikes will cause our economy more harm then the general upward price spiral, but together you will see severe problems as people can and then can not afford gasoline (and then can and then again can not afford oil). Together this will FORCE people to demand mass transit and other alternatives to oil based transportation system.

[Earth_First]

16. NYMEX: 69.80 IPE: 71.06 as of 7:06 a.m. 7:28 a.m. respectively

http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

[opihimoimoi]

20. "Mission Accomplished"

[Earth_First]

21. NYMEX: 69.77 IPE: 71.12 7:43 a.m.

[Township75]

23. GOOD! The fucking brain dead people of this country...

need to get hit hard in the wallet in order to motivate them to change their energy wasting ways. If the pressure isn't constant, they go back. High gas prices every summer may not be enough with these people.

[entanglement]

24. Be comforted: You're actually only paying $1.25 for a gallon of gas

The other $1.75 is for the uncertainty and tension :sarcasm:

[leesa]

25. Right. Last time they gouged us it was the Katrina standoff. Kaaaching!!

Keep being stupid America...these criminals are laughing all the way to their banks.

[Roland99]

26. US oil supplies at an 8-year high while gas inventories drop each week

hhhmmmmm....stranglehold on a much-needed commodity so the gas/oil companies can rape Americans?

[HuffleClaw]

27. bullshit excuse to rape the consumer

IIIIIIRRRRRAAAAAAAAANNNNNNNNN ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

[TexasLawyer]

29. The funny thing is--

IRAN is making a BUNDLE off of this hubbub.

(Not haha funny-- strange funny).

[Bacchus39]

30. our wasteful ways have caught up with us

I think we better get used to it and start really looking at alternative energy sources.

decades of wasteful gas guzzling cars have contributed to this problem. the lack of public transportation infrastructure as well.

the demand will continue to increase as developing countries like India and China modernize and industrialize their economies.

[puerco-bellies]

31. The December 06 contract is trading at $74, and WILL GO HIGHER

If we hit Iran... get a horse.
ACK!!!! 700 CLUB JEBUS SAVE ME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Edited to include panic attack.

[ECH1969]

32. Oil hits record $72 on Iran fears

Oil surged to a record high above $72 on Tuesday on concern that Iran's nuclear stand-off with the West could cut oil exports from the world's fourth-largest crude exporter.

"The Iranian situation is making us all very nervous... We don't seem to be getting anywhere on the diplomatic solutions," said Deborah White, an analyst at SGCIB in Paris.

With almost a quarter of Nigerian oil production still shut after rebel attacks two months ago, oil consumers feel almost as vulnerable as they did during the Arab oil embargo in the 1970s.

&cap=February%202006%20file%20picture%20of%20a%20man%20filling%20his%20van%20with%20fuel%20at%20a%20Shell%20petrol%20station%20in%20London.%20Oil%20surged%20to%20a%20record%20high%20above%20$72%20on%20Tuesday%20on%20concern%20that%20Iran's%20nuclear%20stand-off%20with%20the%20West%20could%20cut%20oil%20exports%20from%20the%20world's%20fourth-largest%20crude%20exporter.%20REUTERS/Paul%20Hackett

[Maine-ah]

33. what exactly is it going to take to get the American

public pissed at this administration.

If I recall correctly, wasn't GW complaining during his first prez campaign about oil being $32 a barrel, and that something needed to be done?

Does any one have links to those quotes by some chance?

[ClintonTyree]

35. Oh yeah....

Monkey-boy was going to "jawbone" those Saudis to keep the price of oil low. :rofl: The first "MBA" pResident was going to open those oil taps right up, put pressure on OPEC to lower oil prices. Mission accomplished! Well, sort of. He opened the taps alright, the taps for windfall profits into the Oil Companies coffers. All because he had to get revenge on Saddam for threatening his Daddy. :eyes:

[ECH1969]

36. There is no problem with supply right now

But there are "fears" and that makes it ok to jack the price of gas a dollar and a half a gallon above what it should be.

[dipsydoodle]

39. Continous price rises may fuel inflation

No pun intended.

If that don't really piss off your public then nothing will. A rise in interest rates would not make many mortgage payers happy.

[ClintonTyree]

34. "On concern"....

nothing concrete, there's nothing actually impeding the flow of oil......just "concern". :eyes: If I was "concerned" that my paycheck wouldn't cover my expected way of life my employer would give me an immediate raise, right? I mean, I'm concerned as hell what with oil prices and all. I'll explain this to my boss this morning, I'm sure he'll get right on the pay raise because of "my concerns". :sarcasm:

The annual summer price gouging isn't anywhere in sight yet and gas is already nearing $3.00 a gallon here. It's probably going to eclipse the post-Katrina prices very soon and only go up from there. Can we get these oil-men out of the damned White House NOW? We can't afford them.

[Vidar]

37. Oh hell, this is the plan. When it hits $100 they can start backtracking.

[0007]

38. The Oil Companies have nothing but kind words for junior and

his gangsters.

All kind of employment here in West Texas. It is booming!

Another big corporation scam that has paid off big, 'eh?

[twaddler01]

40. Crude Oil Trades Near Record on Concern About Iran's Shipments

This would be a perfect time to strike Iran for oil profits :puke:

April 18 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil traded near a record in New York on concern a dispute over Iran's nuclear program may disrupt shipments from the world's fourth-biggest producer.

The U.S. and European nations have called for United Nations sanctions against Iran, which said last week it had produced enough uranium to fuel a nuclear reactor. Concern about Iranian supplies come as China's President Hu Jintao said April 16 his economy grew at a pace of 10.2 percent in the first quarter, faster than forecast for the country that is the world's second-biggest oil consumer.

``It's the constant talk of attacks and military action that are heightening tensions again and helping push up prices,'' said Gerard Burg, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. ``We should see a bit of a rebound in Chinese consumption this year. The market is going to remain very tight.''

Crude oil for May delivery traded at $70.46 a barrel, up 9 cents from yesterday's record close, in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 8:38 a.m. Singapore time.

<more>

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_us&refer=home&sid=a5cVqsEUB6b8

(UPDATED LINK)

[sam sarrha]

41. all the Iran saber rattling is just to drive up profits for oil companies

it all makes sense now

[European Socialist]

42. Poor Dumya--has to choose between oil buddies or GOP Congress.

[Skink]

43. For bushco it's all about the money now.

[rodeodance]

48. Oil hits record above $72 on Iran fears

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060418/bs_nm/markets_oil_dc;_ylt=AmzceN2TN30LoUs4hyJ1Z7Cs0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA3b2NibDltBHNlYwM3MTY-
Oil hits record above $72 on Iran fears

By Janet McBride Tue Apr 18, 3:34 PM ET

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil hit a record $72.64 a barrel on Tuesday as
Iran defied world pressure to halt its nuclear program, raising new fears of a cut in supplies from the world's fourth-biggest crude exporter.


In London, North Sea Brent crude oil jumped $1.18 to set its all-time high as Iran and the West exchanged increasingly sharp words over the Islamic Republic's determination to push ahead with uranium enrichment.

U.S. crude oil climbed to $71.60, smashing through its previous record of $70.85.

"This is a bull market and we have not found a top yet," said Tom Bentz, a senior analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures in New York.

[belab13]

49. that and the dollar seems to have been knudged off a cliff

I don't think the holders of our worthless fiat (aka t-bills and federal reserve notes) are too pleased with recent developments.

oh and by the by, commodities are on a tear.

[bullimiami]

54. isnt it odd with the 'OIL' administration that everything they do

makes the price of oil go up? up? up? up? up?

Fuck with Venzuela. Oil goes up.
Forget better CAFE standards. Oil goes up.
Blow up Iraq. Oil goes up.
Do nothing about Katrina. Oil goes up.
Threaten Iran. Oil goes up.


See any sort of pattern?

[OneTwentyoNine]

50. Oil hits $90.00 per barrel on Moon hitting Earth fears........

What BULLSHIT. Trumped up crap,rigged up market. Real reason? Three or four major Oil companies in the WORLD.

[electropop]

51. Bush's threat to nuke Iran is working like a charm, making million$

for himself and his oily friends.

It's almost as successful as the Iraq war, which was also done to raise oil prices.

[lovuian]

52. Congress needs to get off its Butt!!!

and start doing something!!!

[SYNERCHOSIS]

57. You really believe that?

You really think that Congress will ever do anything positive for the people, you know, their bosses?

You know, I'm getting so sick of people who think their will matters at all ANYONE in congress. If you really want change we all need to turn the cable off, stop buying video games, movies, cd's etc, cancel your cell phone, buy generic food and only buy gas in small amounts. Just wear the clothes you have, why do people feel a need to constantly buy anything and everything that TV sales them.

Does anyone get it that when we feed the monster it just gets bigger? Hello? Anyone??????

[Porcupine]

53. Sing Along!! "It's the end of the world as we know it....It's the end

of the world as we know it,
it's the end of the world as we know it.
And I feel fine!"

I want to be among the first to say goodbye to the Petroleum Age. Goodbye to the world of "I want that done NOW!!" Goodbye to endless miles of cars going nowhere to bring people to jobs that are too far from their kids.

Goodbye and Good Riddance!!!

[BootinUp]

55. The repug congress really will go down in flames if Bushco

keeps up this fear mongering oil price spiking idiotic cowboy diplomacy.

[cliss]

56. Hm, I wonder why they say Iran is the

fourth-biggest oil producer in the world. I thought they were #2.

[Canuck55]

58. Don't know if 2005 data is out yet...

But as of 2004 the top 5 daily producers were:

Saudi Arabia
Russia
U.S.
Iran
Mexico

The article says they are the 4th biggest exporter, which is correct in that its:

Saudi Arabia
Russia
Norway
Iran
Venezuela

edit: source link - http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0922041.html

[leftchick]

60. I thought they were three

??

edit: appears to be number four exporter of oil

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0922041.html

[leftchick]

59. CNN "who is to blame for the Iran insecurity driving up the price?"

Bob Schneider did not have a clue. :eyes:

[Pavulon]

61. Such BS

Everything makes oil go up. These fuckers have worked this out in a backroom somewhere. Probably not true but sometimes I really wonder.

[corporate_mike]

62. price up on "FEARS"

inn that case, it'll never come down

[ls317]

63. 71 dollars a barrel

http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/18/markets/oil.reut/index.htm?cnn=yes


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Crude oil prices climbed to a record above $71 a barrel Tuesday, extending the all-time trading high set earlier in the session on supply worries in Iran and Nigeria.

Light sweet crude for May delivery, which expires Thursday, touched $71.20 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), surpassing the previous intraday record of $70.85 set last summer after hurricanes devastated the Gulf Coast.

[saigon68]

64. kick

[ls317]

65. No summer travel

If that is the case what are prices going to look like this summer then???
350-400 a gallon

[seemunkee]

67. And next winter heating oil

I'm already worried about it. Looking at a woodstove and maybe some solar collectors. Cost me over $2,000 this last winter.

[ls317]

71. The real point

Is why does oil cost so much its higher now than after Katrina??? Damn it this pace you might have to bust open a 401k just to heat your house this upcoming winter..

[barb162]

85. China for starters ...has a voracious appetite for oil these days

[SKKY]

90. And India hasn't even begun to enter the picture...

...Just wait until the world's largest Democracy enters the scene. We'll be looking back and thinking, "Remember the good 'ole days of $71.00 barrel of oil?"

[saigon68]

68. Appears to be heading that way

[rodeodance]

66. but have no fear-bus promised to keep an eye on the situation!

[UpInArms]

69. yeah, he's keepin' his eye on his big fat and growing fatter wallet. n/t

[Skink]

70. Here's a thought let's develop Nuclear power like Iran...

then we won't be dependant on fossils fuels.

[Nebraska_Liberal]

72. Thank you.

I agree. People need to stop being so afraid of nuclear power. It is big fossil fuel companies that are behind the propaganda to discredit it, and the so called environmentalists are buying it!

[roody]

77. Is there a viable plan for the nuclear waste?

[girl gone mad]

78. Not as far as I can tell.

Nor is there a plan for what to do when we start running low on fissionable materials. There are more efficient plant designs which recycle the waste, to some degree. However, these designs are largely untested.

Nuclear would be a short term solution, at best. It might help us in the transition to solar and other alternative energy sources, but we do need to ask if it is worth it. If history is any indication, we would probably never make the transition, we would just grow dependent on nuclear energy and simply delay the crisis for another 25 years. Though, maybe that would be long enough for us to come up with a viable long-term solution.

[Warren Stupidity]

82. transportation and agriculture and plastics

all are dependent on fossil fuels. The replacement has to deal with these three areas. Nuclear does not, although perhaps the hugely inefficient energy transfer from nuclear to hydrogen fuel might ease some of the transportation demand.

[madmark]

73. the higher this stuff gets; the more substitutes become viable.

So i think that that's all good. That said, Iran is doing a good job maximizing its short term profit by getting into an oral bitch slapfest with Bush, roiling the markets, and thereby jacking up the price that its oil can command. And of course Bush the idiot is cooperating.

[cliss]

80. That

was a very good post. I absolutely agree with you. That stupid Bush is just adding fuel to the fire....oil that is.

Stupid fool and his saber-rattling.:smoke:

[madmark]

83. what other president lets himself be dragged into insulting discourses

with third world presidents in which he always loses. I still laugh every time I think about Hugo Chavez calling Bush,"President of Vacation." Its superficially funny, but deep down its embarrassing as hell for the country.

[Voltaire99]

91. Great Chavez line and hilarious indeed...

...though I'm not sure embarrassment to our plutocrats isn't, in the long run, good for us.

Their power over us lies in commanding our fear. Hard for Joe Blow to be afraid of Bush when he's made such a regular laughingstock!

As for the cost to imperial prestige, well, we're doing well enough to squander our good name, such as it is, without help from Chavez. Invading Iraq put paid to that.

[saigon68]

88. He may be co-operating

but a lot of his friends are getting rich beyond Croesus

"... Is our prosperity, then, held by you so worthless that you match us not even with common men." Croesus to Solon. Herodotus, History 1.32

Solon replied that the life of man was entirely chance, being completely unknown what any day might bring; and then, speaking of his host he added:

"To me you seem to be very rich and to be king of many people, but I cannot answer your question before I learn that you ended your life well. The very rich man is not more fortunate than the man who has only his daily needs, unless he chances to end his life with all well. Many very rich men are unfortunate, many of moderate means are lucky. The man who is very rich but unfortunate surpasses the lucky man in only two ways, while the lucky surpasses the rich but unfortunate in many. The rich man is more capable of fulfilling his appetites and of bearing a great disaster that falls upon him, and it is in these ways that he surpasses the other. The lucky man is not so able to support disaster or appetite as is the rich man, but his luck keeps these things away from him, and he is free from deformity and disease, has no experience of evils, and has fine children and good looks. If besides all this he ends his life well, then he is the one whom you seek, the one worthy to be called fortunate. But refrain from calling him fortunate before he dies; call him lucky ... Whoever passes through life with the most and then dies agreeably is the one who, in my opinion...deserves to bear this name. It is necessary to see how the end of every affair turns out, for heaven promises fortune to many people and then utterly ruins them." Solon to Croesus. Herodotus, History 1.32

[Javaman]

74. Just hit 72. nt

[Strelnikov_]

75. $72.92/bbl, Unleaded Wholesale @ $2.20/gal ~ $3.00/gal At The Pump

nationwide average.

[lonestarnot]

76. Just heard repukes saying something about $172.00 a barrel

Guess what, the dumb asses are trying to pay attention. :rofl:

[sarcasmo]

79. Looks like Exxon is #1 again this year, Kick and Nom.

[Stockholm]

81. Great

A golden opportunity for renewable energy initiatives and giving GOP a bloody nose in the fall.

[struggle4progress]

84. GOP = Gas, Oil, & Petroleum ... Wanna guess who's getting rich?

[radfringe]

86. as soon as congress

(let me rephrase that...) IF the REPUBLICAN congress starts an investigation - the prices will drop (for awhile)

the Oil companies turned up the heat too high and fast - people are screaming. Prices will need to drop a few cents, the screaming will stop and then prices will creep up again.

[Theduckno2]

87. Do you think the Republicans expect this runnup in prices and then

after the peak summer driving season, with all refineries online, the pump price drops precipitously going into the midterm elections?

:tinfoilhat:

I think that Bushco is content with steady increases in oil prices so long as it doesn't change our long term fuel consumption habits. What they fear is a dramatic and irreversible reduction in fuel consumption. Thats why he gives conservation short shrift.

[InsultComicDog]

89. The thought has occurred to me

Can people be that stupid?

Never mind, I know the answer to that

[hatrack]

92. Gas is $2.80 here, and there were two other people on the bus this AM

No, we're not really paying attention - we're moaning and groaning, yes, but we're not really thinking about what we're seeing yet.

[Tight_rope]

96. The summer hasn't even started and gas prices are already higher

then last summers peak prices. We are in for a hot, humid, and expensive summer. God have mercy on us.:scared:

[truthisfreedom]

98. reminds me of pink floyd... "And did we tell you the name of the game, boy

We call it Riding the Gravy Train."

i think the thing with Iran is a plot to raise gas prices to increase profits for the oil industry and widen the economic gap all over America.

[Walt Disney]

100. As for me, I would like to see more detail

with respect to refinery costs and profits. However, it looks like uncle is the second biggest culprit.

http://www.energy.ca.gov/gasoline/margins/index.html

[greblc]

101. Move Closer to the places you go and buy a bicycle.