STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 17 April

[ozymandius]

Monday April 17, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 1008 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1943 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1643 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1604
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 13, 2006

Dow... 11,137.65 UNCH (UNCH)
Nasdaq... 2,326.11 +11.43 (+0.49%)
S&P 500... 1,289.12 +1.00 (+0.08%)
Gold future... 1,289.12 +1.00 (+0.08%)
30-Year Bond 5.11% +0.06 (+1.11%)
10-Yr Bond... 5.04% +0.06 (+1.21%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[modrepub]

1. Oil Chart

Thinks you need to adjust your oil scale soon!

[ozymandius]

2. Thanks. I believe it will do it on its own.

:hi:

[the other one]

3. Time to add a silver chart

don't have one but here is the early quote:

SILVER 04/17/2006 06:04 bid 13.25 ask 13.32 +0.36 +2.79%

[ozymandius]

5. done

Thanks for the suggestion.

Ozy :hi:

[ozymandius]

4. WrapUp by Chris Puplava

CAUTION IS WARRANTED!

As most know markets are forward looking, anticipating changes in the economy, government, and the Federal Reserve. As such, looking at how markets have reacted in the past to previous interest rate cycles and business cycles is warranted. I took data from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) of the past business cycles since 1950 to see how the S&P 500 reacted and also the timing of the market and interest rate cycle peak in relation to the business cycle peaks.

-cut-

The general consensus in the markets is that the Fed will likely stop at 5-5.25%. What if the markets are wrong? If they are the markets could be headed for a nasty correction. I believe the Fed is in a real tight spot right now. They don’t want to overshoot as the housing market is clearly slowing and they don’t want to undershoot as commodities are clearly rising (see charts below).

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

32. Why a (Looming) Bear Market Can Seem Like A Bull Market

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=53465

It sure doesn’t look like the makings of a bear market. Corporate earnings are still growing at a double-digit rate, unemployment is low, consumers are still spending heavily. Yet the stock market in 2005 stubbornly refused to reflect these conditions, with stock appreciation more than ten percentage points below earnings growth, and total returns for last year not much above those on medium-term bonds. There should be plenty of room to catch up in 2006, right?

Unfortunately, after the strong start, the second quarter is beginning to feel a bit iffy, with worries about interest rates, oil prices, and global political tensions. What’s more, mid-term elections loom ahead. Will the bulls finally be vindicated this year? Or is it possible that the bears could be right and the market averages fall in 2006?

Averages Don’t Tell the Whole Story

Bulls feel that in almost any given year, there is the potential for double-digit percentage earnings gains. And they’d be right, because earnings (on the Dow or the S&P 500) have in fact risen at such rates more years than not since the early 1920s. Bears point out that hopes for a double-digit growth trajectory and corresponding gains in stocks are optimistic—because the average annual rate of earnings growth over the whole span has been only 5.5%. And they’d be right, also. Results last year had fodder for both bulls and bears: Corporate earnings growth was in the low teens, but the S&P was up only 3% in price terms (almost 5% counting dividends). So how can both the bulls and bears be right?

Downturns Tell the Tale

The reason for this paradox lies in the fact that corporate earnings take a major tumble, of roughly 20%, every few years, thereby depressing average annual earnings growth. Suppose earnings went up at X% a year for four out of five years, and then fell 20% in year five, how high would X have to be to maintain the average growth rate at 5.50% a year for all five years? The answer, given at the end of this article, is surprisingly high.

Although earnings sometimes fall 20% in one year, stocks rarely decline that much, (and the rare exceptions to this rule take place when there are two down earnings years close together, in either a prolonged single, or an intermittent double dip recession). Otherwise, stocks are not as volatile as earnings on either the upside or downside, which is why single-digit stock market gains are more common than single-digit earnings growth.

more...

[AnneD]

50. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: Good read, 54anickle. I know that for the last 2 years I have really felt out of sync. Everyone (MSM)give the RAH RAH and I just don't feel it. And frankly, I don't feel like we fully recovered from the Dotcom market drop. The consumers pull it out by taking out from their homes. That is just shifting the pea from one shell to another. And the jobs have just never recovered-I don't care what they say!

The big news here is that Skilling will be cross examined today. What an arrogant poppinjay. So many folks here lost much of their retirement so they are hoping they turn up the heat on him.

I here some of you folks are getting a last blast of winter. We will be unseasonable warm here and will be happy to swap you for a while.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[UpInArms]

68. Perjury being committed: Skilling Declares He Has 'Nothing to Hide'

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060417/ap_on_bi_ge/enron_trial

excerpt:

On the stand, Skilling employed strong terms to accentuate his view: He is "absolutely" innocent; allegations that he touted businesses as healthy when he knew they were flailing are "absurd;" and it's "inconceivable" to him that a company he believed to be vibrant when he resigned in mid-August 2001 spiraled into failure less than four months later.

On Monday, he also reiterated a lack of memory for some things — notably asking his broker to sell 200,000 of his Enron shares less than a month after he resigned. That sale was held up, and Skilling ended up selling 500,000 Enron shares on Sept. 17, 2001, which was the first day the markets opened after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

Prosecutors allege in one of 10 insider trading counts against him that he ordered the Sept. 17 sale based on his knowledge of Enron's disarray, not in response to markets roiled by the attacks, as he claimed.

Skilling told jurors last week he didn't remember setting up the Sept. 6, 2001, stock sale, but acknowledged that "apparently from the ... from the recording" of his call to his broker that day, he had tried to arrange it.

On Monday, he acknowledged he had forgotten about it until he heard that tape recording played in court last week.

...more...

umm... yeah... right! I just forgot about that 200,000 share sale that I was madly attempting to skid under the wires! :eyes:

[UpInArms]

109. Government probes Enron's Skilling on stock sales

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-04-17T174052Z_01_N17270599_RTRIDST_0_ENRON-TRIAL.XML

HOUSTON, April 17 (Reuters) - A federal prosecutor grilled Jeffrey Skilling on Monday at his criminal trial about tens of millions of dollars the former Enron chief executive reaped from sales of the doomed energy company's stock.

Sean Berkowitz, head of the Enron Task Force, accused the former executive of discussing with former Enron CEO and chairman Kenneth Lay a whistle-blower's note about possible accounting fraud at Enron shortly before Skilling sought to sell 200,000 shares of stock.

The meeting between Lay and Skilling took place on Aug. 22, 2001, Berkowitz said, a week after Skilling resigned from Enron and whistle-blower's Sherron Watkins sent Lay a letter citing financial abuses the company.

<snip>

Skilling is accused of using insider information to sell nearly $63 million in company stock. He has said he sold those shares for tax purposes, or to help pay for the $4 million construction of his house in Houston.

...more...

:rofl: I needed $63 million to build a $4 million house!

[AnneD]

123. It could happen....

the 59 mil was for property taxes :spray:

[ozymandius]

6. Today's Reports

8:30 AM NY Empire State Index Apr
Briefing Forecast 23.0
Market Expects 24.0
Prior 31.2

9:00 AM Net Foreign Purchases Feb
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior $66.0B

[UpInArms]

24. U.S. April Empire State index falls to 15.8 lowest since Oct (Ruh-Roh!)

8:30 AM ET 4/17/06 U.S. APRIL EMPIRE STATE UNFILLED ORDERS -2.9 VS 13.2 MARCH

8:30 AM ET 4/17/06 U.S. APRIL EMPIRE STATE PRICES PAID INDEX 37.9 VS 39.3 MARCH

8:30 AM ET 4/17/06 U.S. APRIL EMPIRE STATE NEW ORDERS INDEX 14.1 VS 27.0 IN MAR

8:30 AM ET 4/17/06 U.S. APRIL EMPIRE STATE INDEX LOWEST LEVEL SINCE OCT.

8:30 AM ET 4/17/06 U.S. APRIL EMPIRE STATE INDEX BELOW CONSENSUS 24.5

8:30 AM ET 4/17/06 U.S. APRIL EMPIRE STATE INDEX 15.8 VS REV 29.0 IN MARCH

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B7DCC500E%2DACCB%2D4A26%2D8456%2DF69EA35A09B3%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Manufacturing activity in the New York area slowed in April, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Monday. The bank's Empire State Manufacturing index fell to 15.8 in April from a revised 29.0 in March. The decline was larger than expected. Economists were expecting the index to fall to 24.5 from the initial estimate last month of 31.2. All major subcategories fell in April, with unfilled orders dipping below zero. Prices held relatively steady.

[UpInArms]

25. more info:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B60CBBC0E-F61B-4342-B2CF-D4CEB8422C34%7D&symbol=

All major subcategories declines in April.

New orders slipped to 14.1 from 27.0 in March

Meanwhile, shipments fell sharply to 14.0 in April from 36.5 in the previous month.

Unfilled orders fell to minus from a reading of 13.2 in March. This is the lowest reading since last June.

Inventories decreased to 1.6 in April from March's 8.6.

The employee index slipped to 17.4 in April from 20.1 in March.

Inflation pressures held steady in April.

...more...

[UpInArms]

29. Net Foreign Purchases (Pirates of the Carribean?)

9:00 AM ET 4/17/06 FOREIGN NET PURCHASES RISE TO $99.5 BLN IN FEB.

9:00 AM ET 4/17/06 CENTRAL BANKS BOUGHT $15.7BLN IN U.S. PAPER IN FEB.

9:00 AM ET 4/17/06 U.S. FOREIGN CAPITAL INFLOWS RISE TO $86.9 BILLION IN FEB.

[UpInArms]

31. more info:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BCF6823CE-FC80-4924-9BFD-1650F5D400FE%7D&symbol=

excerpt:

All told, foreigners bought $21.9 billion in Treasurys, $30.5 billion of corporate bonds, $16.5 billion of corporate equities, and $30.6 billion of agency bonds.


The bulk of buying came from the private sector, with $83.8 billion bought, up from $59.4 billion in January.

Foreign central banks bought $15.7 billion of securities in February, down from $22.3 billion in January. The central banks bought $11.2 billion of Treasurys, $3.3 billion of corporate bonds and $1.9 billion of agency bonds. They sold $700 million of corporate equities.

Japanese entities held $673.1 billion in Treasurys at the end of the month, up $4 billion from January. Chinese owners held $265.2 billion, up $3.1 billion. Owners in the U.K. held $250.8 billion, up $5.6 billion. Owners in the Caribbean banking centers (largely hedge funds) held $91.1 billion, down $11 billion.

Foreign central banks held $1.28 trillion in Treasurys at the end of February, up $16.8 billion.

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

34. Current Account Deficit was $805 Billion in 2005

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B7A1C7E40%2DCEF2%2D4558%2DB188%2D227485E0076D%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Treasury prices improved early Monday, putting a little pressure on yields, after the Treasury Department announced that net foreign capital inflows into the U.S. increased to $86.9 billion in February, the strongest purchasing level since November. Net foreign capital inflows were revised to $69.1 billion in January. So far, the inflows have been sufficient to fund the U.S. current account deficit, which rose to $805 billion in 2005. The latest numbers soothed investor anxieties that foreign governments may be backing away from U.S. instruments and wish to diversify their reserves away from the dollar and into other currencies. The benchmark 10-year bond last was up 6/32 at 95-31/32 with a yield ($TNX 50.28, -0.08, -0.2% ) of 5.02%.

[UpInArms]

96. U.S. April home builders index falls to 50, 4-1/2 year low

1:00 PM ET 4/17/06 U.S. APRIL CURRENT HOME SALES INDEX FALLS TO 54

1:00 PM ET 4/17/06 U.S. APRIL FUTURE HOME SALES INDEX FALLS TO 58

1:00 PM ET 4/17/06 U.S. APRIL HOME BUYER TRAFFIC FALLS TO 39, LOWEST SINCE 2001

1:00 PM ET 4/17/06 U.S. APRIL HOME BUILDERS INDEX FALLS TO 50, 4-1/2 YEAR LOW

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B7E4ECF6F%2D192A%2D4401%2D8D48%2D6091494292CC%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. housing market index fell by four points to 50 in April, the lowest level since the recession ended in November 2001, the National Association of Home Builders said Monday. A reading of 50 indicates builders' views about the market were evenly balanced between good and bad. The index was at 67 a year ago and has fallen 18 points in the past six moths. The survey shows builders are somewhat optimistic about the current sales climate and about sales in the next six months. But the traffic of prospective buyers at developments is not hopeful. Views of builders in the West and South, the hottest regions for new construction, remain positive.

[ozymandius]

7. Crude Oil Prices Hit $70 a Barrel in Asia

LONDON - Crude oil futures hit $70 a barrel for the first time in seven-and-a-half months Monday, pushed higher by concerns over declining gasoline stocks in the U.S., supply disruptions in Nigeria and tension over Iran's nuclear program.

Light, sweet crude for May delivery briefly touched $70 a barrel before easing to $69.85 a barrel in European trading to — up 40 cents from Thursday's close. The Nymex was closed on Friday for the Good Friday holiday.

The last time crude futures surpassed US$70 a barrel was on Aug. 30 when they traded at a record $70.85 a barrel, after Hurricane Katrina struck the U.S. Gulf coast.

more...

[UpInArms]

10. Exxon chief made $144,573 per day: report

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BFB243793-08BF-4272-8801-41D9B12A4DB4%7D&symbol=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Lee Raymond, the chairman and chief executive officer of Exxon Mobil Corp., earned $144,573 for each day of the 13 years he served at the top of the oil company, according to a report in Saturday's New York Times.

Raymond, who retired from Exxon (XOM 61.56, +0.10, +0.2% ) in December, received more than $686 million from 1993 to 2005, according to an analysis done for the paper by an independent compensation consultant.

Raymond received more that $400 million in the final year of his contract.
Shareholder activists, consumer groups and corporate governance experts were taken aback by the details of the package.

<snip>

Charles Elson, director of the John L. Weinberg Center for Corporate Governance at the University of Delaware said Raymond received "entrepreneurial returns for managerial conduct."

...more...

[bigworld]

26. How do you even begin to spend that kind of money?

Really? What do you do with it other than, um, invest it?

[UpInArms]

46. Crude @ $59.50 bbl

10:00 AM ET 4/17/06 CRUDE FUTURES UP 18 CENTS AT $69.50 A BARREL

[UpInArms]

47. Crude rises in early trade as Iran worry persists

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B6D7F566E%2D17E5%2D414C%2DB161%2DDC75252D6672%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude futures opened higher Monday after cracking $70 a barrel overnight, bringing them close to the $70.85 a barrel high hit during last summer's hurricane season. Crude for June delivery was last trading 20 cents at $69.52 a barrel. Gasoline rose 0.6 cent to $2.114 a gallon, after rising to a contract high of $2.1205 a gallon overnight. Over the weekend, Iran pledged to push ahead with uranium enrichment, defying calls from western governments and the UN. The Tehran government also said it is donating $50 million Hamas after the U.S. and E.U. cut funding.

[UpInArms]

90. Oil prices set new record of $71.40 a barrel

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/commoditiesenergyoilprice

LONDON (AFP) - Oil prices set a new record of 71.40 dollars a barrel on worries about falling US gasoline stocks and the possibility of attacks by Washington against Iranian nuclear facilities.

Prices had last set a record of 70.85 dollars on August 30 when Hurricane Katrina hammered oil production facilities in the US Gulf of Mexico region.

At 0130 GMT, Brent North Sea crude traded for 71.40 dollars a barrel, up from the closing level on Thursday in London of 70.57 dollars.

<snip>

Two key issues were driving the market, said Victor Shum, an analyst with energy consultancy Purvin and Gertz in Singapore.

"One is the gasoline supply situation in the US and two is the issue over Iran," he said. "The issue is still there and it will continue to be with us."

...more...

[UpInArms]

108. May Crude @ $70.15 bbl - June Crude over $71

1:40 PM ET 4/17/06 CRUDE OIL HITS NEW 7-1/2 MONTH HIGH AT $70.15/BBL

May will only be the forward month for 2 more days.

[ozymandius]

8. Top 10 last-minute tips from the Internal Revenue Service

10. AVOID PENALTIES – FILE ON TIME, EVEN IF YOU CAN’T PAY IN FULL.
Don’t make the mistake of waiting to file until you have enough money to pay your tax bill in full. If you miss the deadline, you’ll be hit with the late filing penalty, which is the highest one.

Taxpayers can avoid late filing penalties by filing their tax return or a request for an extension by April 17, even if they can’t pay taxes due.
For those who can’t immediately pay the taxes due, consider some stress-reducing alternatives. A taxpayer can apply for an Internal Revenue Service installment agreement, suggesting their own monthly payment amount and due dates, and getting a reduced late payment penalty rate.

Taxpayers also have various options for charging their balance due on a credit card. There is no IRS fee for credit card payments, but the processor charges a convenience fee.

Electronic filers with a balance due can file early and authorize the government’s financial agent to take the money directly from their checking or savings account on the due date.

more...

[54anickel]

70. Reminds me of the time I got caught speeding down south years

ago in NM when credit cards weren't used as much as they are today. I was shocked when the officer said with a shit-ass grin, "We take Visa, Mastercard and American Express". I found out later at a nearby diner that the area was a speed-trap for out-of-state travelers. It was a steep down-grade, I could see the squad well in advance and was riding the brake - got nailed for $47 doing 57 in a 55 The waitress laughed and thanked me for the contribution to the local economy - it's what helped keep her taxes low. Nice thing was that no points were ever assessed against me. Guess the paperwork of collecting the fine was as far as they went. ;-)

https://www.pay1040.com/amex/default.aspx

[AnneD]

85. so what part of the 'land of enchantment'

was this fair burg. I had one ticket my entire adult life. Then got two in 4 years living in NM. And they'll issue them in a heartbeat too.

[54anickel]

88. I don't remember what burg, but I was somewhere on 25, South of

Albuquerque (where I spent the night before). Maybe 6-8 hours south? I had one of those AAA trip-ticks and it was stamped "strick enforcement"...they weren't shittin'!

[AnneD]

99. You were certainly...

around my old stomping grounds. Can't think off the top of my head the speed trap towns, but they do seem to be stricter in the southern part of the state. Was it on a Reservation? A lot of that goes on there too.

[54anickel]

105. I don't know, might have been. I'm wondering if I wasn't somewhere

outside of Las Cruces. Everytime I think about that incident, the old Michael Murphy song "Crack Up in Las Cruces" starts playing in my head. I have that weird tune/memory link thingie as part of my usual brain functioning, so I'd be willing to bet it was down in that area. Is it mountainous/hilly around there? It was a long, steep downgrade, but real barron - no forest or trees - I could see for miles (that's why I could see the squad so easily).

[AnneD]

119. Las Cruses would be about right.

You go through St Augustine Pass and there is a steep downgrade and you can see for miles and there is a collection of small towns and it is difficult to downshift to stay at that speed on that grade coming down the mountain.

[UpInArms]

9. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

Last trade 89.08 Change -0.51 (-0.57%)

Big Turning Point Ahead for the Dollar

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/Big_Turning_Point_Ahead_for_1145032459534.html

Unsurprisingly, with all of the major markets closed for Good Friday, trading has been very quiet especially since many European markets are also closed Monday. We are at an important crossroad in many of the currency pairs and next week could prove to be the major turning point that everyone has been waiting for. Volatility has compressed quite a bit and naturally so has trading ranges. If you take a look at the weekly charts of the four majors, we are near the apex of major triangle formations, which means that breakouts are imminent. With a large laundry list of US economic data due for release next week, we have plenty of catalysts to trade off of. The Treasury International Capital flow report due on Monday could set the tone for the week. With the February trade deficit reported at $65.5 billion and the TIC forecast at $60 billion for the same month, it looks like we may be setting up for another deficiency. If so, this would bring back the concerns that we talked about in yesterday’s fundamentals, which is that with rising long term yields attracting Japanese investment money back into the country, and the Chinese using their money to invest in more tangible assets, we will have the two largest buyers of dollar denominated investments fading to the background. Alternatively however, the higher risk scenario is actually for a positive number. If foreign inflows increase above the trade deficit, then we could set up for an extremely dollar positive week. Both CPI and PPI are due later in the week and given the 17 percent low to high rally in oil prices last month, odds are that inflation could be stronger than expected. Even if it doesn’t, the market will still expect higher inflation the following month. This morning, we saw the release of industrial production and capacity utilization figures. The report was not very telling with a strong number in March, but a larger downward revision the previous month. Capacity utilization also came in weaker than expected, highlighting the struggling nature of the manufacturing sector. We should see confirmation of this trend in next week’s Empire State and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys. Lastly, the Federal Reserve will also be releasing the minutes from their March 28 monetary policy meeting, which is also the very first meeting that Ben Bernanke served as Fed Chairman. It will be interesting to see if the meeting had a different tone under the leadership of Bernanke versus Greenspan.

...more...

The Moment of Truth

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/The_Moment_of_Truth_1145248240833.html

The currency market for all intents and purposes was closed from Wednesday on as combination of Passover and Easter holidays shut off order flow to a trickle. US data was surprisingly resilient with every major release beating expectations. Most impressive was the continued increase in Retail Sales as higher oil prices and higher interest rates left no discernable impact on the US consumer. Sales advanced 0.6% versus projections of a 0.4% rise and suggest that GDP in Q1 of 2006 should register a healthy rate of growth.

Despite the green on the screen the dollar lost ground against all the majors save the yen as traders looked past the eco news to next Monday’s TIC report. As we wrote in our Friday note, “Focus will soon turn to Monday’s TICs report which could show the third consecutive month of foreign capital inflows failing to offset the Trade deficit gap. Worries about the structural problems of the US Balance sheet may weigh on the pair as FX dealing slows to a crawl heading into the holiday.” In addition to TIC data, the currency markets will also watch the housing releases projected to slow down from the period prior. If the housing reports miss strongly to the downside, the dollar which has been very sensitive to housing news lately, may take a tumble as well.

...more...

[54anickel]

27. Holy Sh*t! Look at the buck drop!

Last trade 88.73 Change -0.86 (-0.96%)

Settle Time 13:01 Open 89.16

Previous Close 89.59 High 89.16

Low 88.72 2006-04-17 08:19:48, 30 min delay

[UpInArms]

43. dollar faring no better after Foreign Inflows Report

Last trade 88.71 Change -0.88 (-0.98%)

Settle Time 13:01 Open 89.16

Previous Close 89.59 High 89.16

Low 88.59 2006-04-17 09:23:21, 30 min delay

[UpInArms]

28. Dollar slumps ahead of capital flows data

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B15700EA1%2D3D33%2D406A%2D938E%2D3C8960E1B86A%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar traded sharply lower early Monday, sliding to a more than one-week low versus the euro and yen, amid concerns foreign capital flows report from the Treasury Department, due out at 9 a.m. Eastern, will be weak. "Market players don't want to be caught the wrong way here going into a very heavy data week in the U.S., particularly in front of this TICs report from the U.S. Treasury on capital flows that is likely to show that foreigners are continuing to ease their purchases of U.S. bonds," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at the Bank of New York. The dollar showed little reaction to data showing manufacturing activity in the New York area slowed in April. The Empire State Manufacturing index fell to 15.8 in April from a revised 29.0 in March New York Federal Reserve Bank said. Economists were expecting the index to fall to 24.5. At last check, the euro was up 1.2% at $1.2246, while the dollar was down 0.8% at 117.71 yen.

[WhiteTara]

98. does this sentence mean the day of reckoning is

nigh?
"which could show the third consecutive month of foreign capital inflows failing to offset the Trade deficit gap."
:shrug:

[UpInArms]

104. it appears that the bullet has been dodged for now

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=2230864&mesg_id=2231029

[UpInArms]

11. Iraq war may have consequences for end-game on interest rates

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={A7DB7B95-7C58-41FB-AF89-1F65136D670E}&siteId=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Name an unpopular war that Congress and the White House were reluctant to pay for with tax increases, leading to budget deficits, sweeping global economic changes and crippling inflation.

<snipping past the obvious answer>

"The idea is a similar one. If you have a war and don't pay for it, that will eventually lead to a risk for inflation, which is a concern for the central bank," said Nigel Gault, the chief U.S. economist at Global Insight, an independent research firm based in Waltham, Mass.

<snip>

For their part, Federal Reserve officials never mention the war in their speeches about the U.S. economic outlook.

And the government's economic statistical agencies haven't volunteered much information, either. Indeed, the last report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis looking at the impact of the war on the nation's GDP was released in November 2003.

But an open discussion of the war's economic impact could soon replace the current whispers in closed-door Washington economic-policy settings, as Wall Street and Main Street begin to understand that interest rates could be moving higher than expected as a result of the conflict.

...more...

[UpInArms]

14. Dimson attempts to destroy what is left of economy

Bush urges Congress to make tax cuts permanent

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-15T140701Z_01_N14182417_RTRIDST_0_BUSH-TAXES.XML

WASHINGTON, April 15 (Reuters) - As Americans face a deadline for filing taxes, President George W. Bush on Saturday pressed Congress to extend tax cuts, saying they create jobs and economic growth.

A push by House and Senate Republicans for $70 billion in tax cuts was derailed earlier this month before lawmakers went on a two-week spring recess.

The tax cuts would have extended the maximum 15 percent tax rate on capital gains and dividends beyond 2008. Without congressional action, capital gains taxes would jump to 20 percent and dividends would be taxed as regular income.

"Tax relief has done exactly what it was designed to do: It has created jobs and growth for the American people," Bush said in his weekly radio address.

"Yet some here in Washington are now proposing that we raise taxes, either by repealing the tax cuts or letting them expire," he said. "To keep our economy creating jobs and opportunity, Congress needs to make the tax relief permanent."

...more...

[54anickel]

53. The Lobby and the Bulldozer: Mearsheimer, Walt and Corrie

http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/041306A.shtml

Weeks after a British magazine published a long article by two American professors titled "The Israel Lobby," the outrage continued to howl through mainstream US media.

A Los Angeles Times op-ed article by Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow Max Boot helped to set a common tone. He condemned a working paper by professors John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt that was excerpted last month in the London Review of Books.

snip>

Many who went on the media attack did more than imply. On April 3, for instance, the same day that the Philadelphia Inquirer reprinted Boot's piece from the Los Angeles Times, a notably similar op-ed appeared in the Boston Herald under the headline "Anti-Semitic Paranoia at Harvard."

And so it goes in the national media echo chamber. When a Johns Hopkins University professor weighed in last week on the op-ed page of the Washington Post, the headline was blunt: "Yes, It's Anti-Semitic." The piece flatly called the Mearsheimer-Walt essay "kooky academic work" - and "anti-Semitic."

more...

I've been trying to follow the reactions to the paper (since I posted it here when it was first released). I couldn't post any that questioned the anti-Semitic label that I read by Rep. Ron Paul, Paul Craig Roberts and Charley Reese. I think Truthout is an allowed site for linking. :shrug:

[UpInArms]

76. somehow I cannot help but think that Catepillar shares should take a hit

In sharp contrast to the high-tech killers who run the Israeli military apparatus and the low-tech killers who engage in suicide bombings, Rachel Corrie put her beliefs into practice with militant nonviolence instead of carnage. She exemplified the best of the human spirit in action; she was killed with an American-brand bulldozer in the service of a US-backed government.



http://www.smh.com.au/news/Middle-East-Conflict/Bulldozer-maker-sued-for-role-in-peace-activists-death/2005/03/16/1110913672525.html

The parents of Rachel Corrie, a 23-year-old American student who was run over and killed by a Caterpillar bulldozer in Gaza in 2003, have filed a lawsuit against the bulldozer maker.

Ms Corrie's parents allege Caterpillar violated international law by providing bulldozers to the Israeli Defence Force knowing they would be used to "demolish homes and endanger civilians".

Ms Corrie, a student from Washington state, was protesting against the demolition of Palestinian homes in the Gaza Strip when she was crushed by the bulldozer on March 16, 2003.

Israeli investigators concluded the incident was an accident.

The driver of the bulldozer said he could not see Ms Corrie kneeling in front of the house she was trying to protect.

...more...

[54anickel]

54. A Bad Leak

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/16/opinion/16sun1.html

President Bush says he declassified portions of the prewar intelligence assessment on Iraq because he "wanted people to see the truth" about Iraq's weapons programs and to understand why he kept accusing Saddam Hussein of stockpiling weapons that turned out not to exist. This would be a noble sentiment if it actually bore any relationship to Mr. Bush's actions in this case, or his overall record.

Mr. Bush did not declassify the National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq — in any accepted sense of that word — when he authorized I. Lewis Libby Jr., through Vice President Dick Cheney, to talk about it with reporters. He permitted a leak of cherry-picked portions of the report. The declassification came later.

And this president has never shown the slightest interest in disclosure, except when it suits his political purposes. He has run one of the most secretive administrations in American history, consistently withholding information and vital documents not just from the public, but also from Congress. Just the other day, Attorney General Alberto Gonzales told the House Judiciary Committee that the names of the lawyers who reviewed Mr. Bush's warrantless wiretapping program were a state secret.

Obviously, we do not object to government officials talking to reporters about important matters that their bosses do not want discussed. It would be impossible to cover any administration, especially one so secretive as this, unless that happened. (Judith Miller, who then worked for The Times, was one of the reporters Mr. Libby chose for this leak, although she never wrote about it.) But the version of the facts that Mr. Libby was authorized to divulge was so distorted that it seems more like disinformation than any sincere attempt to inform the public.

more...

[54anickel]

113. IRAQ: They Backed the Scam to the Bitter End

Despite emerging evidence of AWB's kickbacks, the Howard Government continued giving the wheat trader its unconditional support.

http://www.corpwatch.org/article.php?id=13483

PAUL VOLCKER is one of those rare figures who survived public life in Washington with a reputation as an honourable man. Admired for his towering intellect as well as his personal integrity, the former chairman of the US Federal Reserve Bank was not one to shirk onerous tasks. He had mediated the fraught, emotional battles between Holocaust survivors and the Swiss banks and taken on the failings of global accountancy firms in the aftermath of the Enron scandal.

In April 2004, the UN Secretary-General, Kofi Annan, asked Volcker to investigate the greatest scandal ever faced by the world body: the corruption of its $US100 billion oil-for-food program. The program had rescued Iraq from the brink of starvation and economic collapse after the UN-imposed sanctions on Saddam Hussein. But since the US-led invasion toppled the dictator, a chorus of critics from Iraqi exiles to the US Congress were on the attack, even accusing Annan's son of corruptly benefiting from the program.

News of Volcker's investigation was met with anxiety in Canberra, where the Government had mounted a vigorous defence of allegations coming out of Baghdad and Washington that Australia's monopoly wheat trader, AWB, had paid kickbacks to Saddam's regime. AWB had shipped $2.2 billion worth of wheat under the oil-for-food program, by far the largest supplier of goods, and would inevitably come under intense scrutiny by Volcker.

big snip>

But the enormity and credibility of the findings were too serious to be ignored. Under intense pressure from Volcker and Kofi Annan, Howard had little option but to agree to set up his own inquiry into the AWB scandal - almost six years after the kickback allegations were first brought to his Government's attention.

"I make no judgements to the contrary," he told Parliament. "But, given the seriousness of the issue, I believe that there should be an independent inquiry into whether there was any breach of Australian law by those Australian companies referred to in the Volcker report."

After four months of sittings involving squads of lawyers in front and behind the scenes; after hearing evidence from more than 40 witnesses including two ministers and the Prime Minister; after the unearthing of tens of thousands of documents from AWB, the UN, Alia and half a dozen government departments the Cole inquiry has established beyond doubt that AWB knew what it was doing when it paid those millions to that obscure trucking company: they were kickbacks to Saddam.

Ministers may be humiliated and wheat traders may go to prison. But the Cole inquiry has revealed more than a great corporate scandal; this is one of the most extraordinary failures of government in the nation's history.

more...

[UpInArms]

12. Retail sales growth may not last for long

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/trade/2006-04-13-march-retail-sales_x.htm

WASHINGTON — Retail sales rebounded in March, but the gains may be short-lived.

Several economists, including those at PNC and SunTrust banks, say consumers will shop less in months ahead as rising gasoline prices reduce their spending budgets. A slowdown in consumer spending "is one of those matters of when, and not if," says SunTrust's Gregory Miller.

<snip>

A number of economists warned, however, that rising gasoline prices mean consumers will have less money to spend on non-essential goods. As interest rates increase, people are not turning to home equity lines of credit to fuel spending sprees as they once did.

"We expect consumers to become more conservative as the year goes on," National Retail Federation chief economist Rosalind Wells says.

<snip>

Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.

...more...

[UpInArms]

13. Study confirms health monopoly fears

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BD2334AAB-0321-432E-B5AE-695FDBCF258B%7D&symbol=

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- A study scheduled to be released Monday is expected to raise concerns that health insurer consolidation is creating near-monopolies in virtually all reaches of the U.S. -- with the most dominant firms grabbing more market share by several percentage points a year.

Data from the American Medical Association shows that in each of 43 states, a handful of top insurers have gained such a stronghold that their markets are considered "highly concentrated" under Department of Justice guidelines, often far exceeding the thresholds that trigger antitrust concerns.

The study also shows that in 166 of 294 metropolitan areas, or 56%, a single insurer controls more than half the business in health maintenance organization (HMO) and preferred provider networks (PPO) underwriting.

<snip>

The AMA study cited a Justice Department benchmark in citing antitrust concerns, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, or HHI. A score above 1,000 shows "moderate" concentration. Those scoring above 1,800 yield a "high" concentration.

Figures show that 95% of the 294 HMO/PPO metropolitan markets studied were above 1,800. Raise that HHI bar even higher to 3,000 and yet more than half, or 67%, rise above it.

...more...

[54anickel]

114. "There is no health care crisis"

A Detailed Timeline of the Healthcare Debate portrayed in The System
Events following Clinton's Healthcare Address to Congress through March 1994

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/forum/may96/background/health_debate_page1.html

snip>

December 2, 1993 - Leading conservative operative William Kristol privately circulates a strategy document to Republicans in Congress. Kristol writes that congressional Republicans should work to "kill" -- not amend -- the Clinton plan because it presents a real danger to the Republican future: Its passage will give the Democrats a lock on the crucial middle-class vote and revive the reputation of the party. Nearly a full year before Republicans will unite behind the "Contract With America," Kristol has provided the rationale and the steel for them to achieve their aims of winning control of Congress and becoming America's majority party. Killing health care will serve both ends. The timing of the memo dovetails with a growing private consensus among Republicans that all-out opposition to the Clinton plan is in their best political interest. Until the memo surfaces, most opponents prefer behind-the-scenes warfare largely shielded from public view. The boldness of Kristol's strategy signals a new turn in the battle. Not only is it politically acceptable to criticize the Clinton plan on policy grounds, it is also politically advantageous. By the end of 1993, blocking reform poses little risk as the public becomes increasingly fearful of what it has heard about the Clinton plan.

snip>

Mid August 1994 - Newt Gingrich strikes. For more than a year, he has marshaled his forces like a guerrilla army and coordinated the Republican attack strategy with the congressional Theme Team and economic allies in the grassroots campaign. Now he springs his ambush by attacking -- not the Democratic health bill being introduced in the House, but the least expected target, the crime bill. His plan is to bring Congress to a halt, strand the health effort, send lawmakers home, and deny Democrats the opportunity to record a vote on health care reform before the fall elections.

snip>

November 8, 1994 - Voters deliver a massive repudiation of President Clinton, break the forty-year hold of Democrats on Congress, restore Republicans to power at ever level of government, and set the stage for a further test over the nation's ideological future in 1996. In two years the Democrats have gone from a controlling majority 258 seats in the House of Representatives to a minority of 204. In all the contests House, Senate, and gubernatorial seats, not a single Republican seeking reelection loses.

Late 1994 - As the Gingrich Revolution in Congress prepares to assume office, a Gallup poll shows that 72 percent of the public lists major health care reform as a top or high priority. Only crime and deficit reduction rank higher.

lots more...

[UpInArms]

15. Fed not convinced on need for June rate rise -WSJ

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-17T023128Z_01_T349808_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-WSJ.XML

TOKYO, April 17 (Reuters) - Some Federal Reserve officials are not convinced of the need to raise interest rates beyond a widely expected increase at its next policy meeting in May, the Wall Street Journal reported. Greg Ip, the Journal's Fed correspondent who is seen as sometimes reflecting the views of top central bankers, said that while markets have priced in better than 50 percent odds of a rate increase in June, "not all Fed officials are convinced".

Ip cited recent speeches from Fed governors Donald Kohn and Susan Bies as suggesting the Fed is approaching a near-term pause in its run of credit tightening that has boosted the fed funds rate to 4.75 percent from 1 percent since June 2004.

Bies told reporters after a speech last week that "everyone agrees we are getting closer to the stopping point".

Even though investors read the Fed's policy statement after the central bank's March meeting as pointing to more rate rises, Fed officials meant to convey an inclination, rather than a commitment, about any action in May and weren't trying to send any signal for June, Ip said.

Traders said the dollar slipped and U.S. Treasuries edged higher on the report, published on Friday when U.S. markets were closed for the Good Friday holiday.

...more...

[UpInArms]

37. Printing Press Hums: Fed adds temporary bank reserves via overnight repos

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-17T133640Z_01_N17344044_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, April 17 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Monday that it added temporary reserves to the banking system via overnight repurchase agreements.

The benchmark fed funds rate last traded at 4.875 percent, above the Fed's current target of 4.75 percent for the overnight lending rate on loans between banks.

Further details of the operations are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[UpInArms]

106. Fed: Central banks should be active in a crisis - study (intervention?)

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-04-17T172350Z_01_N17267501_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-ACTION.XML

ATLANTA, April 17 (Reuters) - Financial markets suffer destructive gridlock in a crisis as investors bolt for safer investments, but central bank intervention can keep the system up and running, according to a study presented at the Atlanta Federal Reserve on Monday.

The paper, written by economists Ricardo Caballero and Arvind Krishnamurthy, studied a flight to quality as market players protected themselves from worst-case assessments of the risks, even though the danger in their own market was small.

It was delivered at a conference on financial markets and systemic risk chaired by Fed Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson.

"Agents respond to uncertainty regarding other markets by requiring financial intermediaries to lock up some capital to devote to their own market's shocks, regardless of what happens in other markets," the paper said.

<snip>

A central bank, acting as a lender of last resort, can prevent these bottlenecks from developing in capital markets by "committing to intervene during extreme events where the financial intermediaries' capital is depleted."

The authors noted that the Long Term Capital Management rescue sponsored by the Fed after the Russian debt crisis in 1998 was important, not because of its direct effect, "but because it served as a signal of the Fed's readiness to intervene should conditions worsen."

...more...

[54anickel]

118. I still wonder if old Fergie wasn't told to step down - I mean, with talk

like this, he just doesn't fit into the Fed's Bubbles mentality (who cares about moral hazard!)...

"We must always ask: Do our potential actions credibly mitigate a risk of inflation or a threat to the real economy? Such a standard helps reduce the danger that we might pursue financial stability to a point of changing the behavior of market participants in counterproductive ways, such as increasing moral hazard," he said.

[UpInArms]

16. Knight Ridder 1st-qtr earnings fall 53 percent

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-17T113148Z_01_N17217149_RTRIDST_0_MEDIA-KNIGHTRIDDER-EARNS-UPDATE-2.XML

NEW YORK, April 17 (Reuters) - Knight Ridder Inc. (KRI.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the newspaper publisher being acquired by McClatchy Co. (MNI.N: Quote, Profile, Research), said on Monday first-quarter earnings fell 53 percent as stock-based compensation and sale-related expenses undercut profits.

Net profit fell to $28.4 million, or 42 cents a share, from $60.5 million, or 79 cents a share, a year earlier.

Stock-based compensation depressed first-quarter earnings by 5 cents per share, and sales-related expenses knocked 6 cents off the bottom line.

A 12 percent decline in national ad revenue also dragged on earnings.

...more...

[UpInArms]

17. Knight Ridder 1Q earns hurt by 74% jump in interest expense

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B4D722EAD%2DF117%2D4BE6%2D85EC%2DACDA177FDB25%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Knight Ridder (KRI 61.85, -0.95, -1.5% ) Monday reported first-quarter earnings of $28.4 million, or 42 cents a share, down from a year-ago profit of $60.5 million, or 79 cents a share. The latest results include 6 cents a share in expenses related to the company's review of its strategic options, and 5 cents a share in costs related to equity-based compensation. Revenue rose in the latest three months to $739.9 million from $711.8 million in the same period a year earlier. The average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson First Call was for a profit of 59 cents a share in the March period on revenue of $732.8 million. The San Jose, Calif., media company said earnings in the latest quarter were hurt by an increase in interest expense of roughly 74% year-over-year due to increased borrowing and higher rates. The stock closed Thursday at $61.85, down 1.5%.

[UpInArms]

18. Gold storms to new 25-yr high, silver surges

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=businessNews&storyid=2006-04-17T095909Z_01_T269891_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-PRECIOUS.xml

TOKYO (Reuters) - Gold surged to a new 25-year high on Monday, buoyed by concerns over Iran's nuclear ambitions and surges in oil prices, while silver powered to its highest since May 1983 on hopes for the first silver exchange-traded fund.

Hedge funds and operators investing in the short term were anxious about shifting their funds into gold and silver for the purpose to diversify and to raise higher returns.

Spot gold rose as high as $606.10 an ounce -- the highest since December 1980, while silver rose to $13.33 per ounce, its loftiest since May 1983.

Surges of gold and silver futures on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange spilled to bolster dollar-based spot prices as both London and New York markets were closed for Easter holidays on Friday.

<snip>

But silver is still far from its peak in early 1980 when the billionaire Hunt Brothers of Texas sent the metal to around $50 as they tried to corner the market before prices came crashing back down.

...more...

[UpInArms]

19. Iran concerns send gold to fresh 25-year high

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B83638A96-7C14-4A1F-B3B8-ECD1B152D2B5%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Concerns about Iran's nuclear brinkmanship with western governments and the United Nations Security Council pushed gold futures to fresh 25-year highs early Monday, sparking a rally across the metals sector.

Gold for June delivery was up $8.70 at $608.80 an ounce, after earlier rising to as high as $610.10 an ounce. Silver was up 36 cents at $13.215 an ounce, off a high of $13.330 an ounce, a 22-year high.

"Heightened geopolitical tensions, a topping U.S. dollar and short positions that are being annihilated, all are combining to cause near parabolic rises across the metals complex," said Peter Grandich, editor of The Grandich Letter. "Sheer momentum is likely to carry it in the very near term but a significant intermediate correction lurks down the road a bit."

...more...

[UpInArms]

23. Gold rallies as dollar dips, Iran concerns persist

8:20 AM ET 4/17/06 GOLD FUTURES OPEN UP $7.90 AT $608/OZ ON NYMEX

8:21 AM ET 4/17/06 SILVER FUTURES UP 37.5C AT $13.23 AN OUNCE

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B5156D683%2DF6E6%2D4C48%2DA1A4%2D3EC6D83D06B9%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rose to a fresh 25-year high on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Monday, propelled higher by a steep decline in the dollar and continued concerns about Iran's nuclear research program. Gold for June delivery was last trading up $8.40 at $608.40 an ounce, having earlier touched a high of $610.10 in electronic trade. Silver added 37.5 cents to $13.23 an ounce, after striking a fresh 22-year high of $13.33 in electronic trade. Copper rose 8.65 cents to a record $2.902 a pound.

[UpInArms]

52. Gold ETFs break through $60 a share for first time ever

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BDA73B264%2DCBE3%2D4D16%2D8168%2DEEAFF27F4F8E%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- A pair of exchange-traded funds tracking the price of gold bullion broke through $60 a share Monday for the first time in their relatively short histories. In early dealings, shares of StreetTracks Gold Trust (GLD 60.27, +0.77, +1.3% ) gained 1.3% to $60.26 while iShares Comex Gold Trust (IAU 60.39, +0.71, +1.2% ) added 1.1% to $60.35. StreetTracks Gold Trust was launched in November 2004, followed by iShares Comex Gold Trust. The ETFs are designed to track the price of gold less expenses, with shares representing 1/10th an ounce of gold held in a vault.

[UpInArms]

92. Gold @ $615 oz (Yowzer!)

12:40 PM ET 4/17/06 GOLD FUTURES UP $14.90 AT $615 AN OUNCE

[UpInArms]

112. Gold closes @ $614.50 oz - Silver @ $13.365 oz

1:59 PM ET 4/17/06
SILVER CLOSES UP 51C AT $13.365 AN OUNCE

1:52 PM ET 4/17/06
GOLD CLOSES UP $18.70 AT $614.50 AN OUNCE

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BC5BC39D9%2DBA57%2D496F%2D8440%2D1EA20F15D772%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures closed at their highest level in 25 years Monday, as a sharp decline in the dollar and concerns about Iran's nuclear activities sparked a strong rally across the commodities markets. Gold for June delivery finished the session up $18.70 at $618.80 an ounce, just off an intraday high of $619.30. Silver futures closed up 51 cents at a 22-year high of $13.365 an ounce. Copper rose 7.95 cents to a fresh closing high of $2.895 a pound.

[UpInArms]

20. Viacom chief defends scandal-linked studio boss

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=domesticNews&storyid=2006-04-17T073334Z_01_N16229326_RTRUKOC_0_US-MEDIA-PARAMOUNT.xml

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Viacom Inc. executive chairman Sumner Redstone has come to the defense of Viacom's Paramount studio chief, caught up in the Hollywood wire-tap scandal involving celebrity sleuth Anthony Pellicano, according to a report published on Sunday.

Brad Gray, the Hollywood dealmaker hired a year ago to resurrect Viacom's ailing Paramount Pictures unit, has been interviewed twice by FBI officials in connection with work that Pellicano did for him in the past.

So far, the only Hollywood notable charged with a crime has been "Die Hard" director John McTiernan, accused earlier this month of lying to a grand jury when he denied knowing anything about wiretapping by Pellicano.

<snip>

Pellicano, who has worked for some of the biggest names in Hollywood, was charged in February in a 110-count racketeering and conspiracy indictment, which alleges he illegally wiretapped and obtained the confidential records of performers, journalists and business executives.

He has pleaded not guilty to the indictment, which was returned just before he completed a 30-month term in federal prison for firearms violations. He faces up to 20 years behind bars on each of the racketeering charges.

...more...

[UpInArms]

21. Redstone scored $24 million payday in 2005

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=businessNews&storyid=2006-04-16T230622Z_01_N16205713_RTRUKOC_0_US-REDSTONE.xml

NEW YORK (Hollywood Reporter) - Sumner Redstone earned almost $24.5 million last year in his capacity as chairman and controlling shareholder of Viacom Inc. and CBS Corp., the companies said in their proxy statements filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Overall, his pay, along with that of Viacom president and CEO Tom Freston and CBS president and CEO Leslie Moonves, came in below levels for 2004, when top brass received stock-option awards whose potential value had raised some eyebrows.

Viacom reported late Friday total 2005 compensation of $17.35 million for Redstone, including a salary of $5.81 million paid before the company split into CBS and a smaller Viacom on December 31, restricted share awards, other compensation as well as a $7.13 million bonus paid this year by the new company after the split into two firms.

However, the filing said that the postsplit CBS also paid Redstone a bonus of the same amount, bringing his pay from both companies above the $20 million mark. The CBS filing confirmed this.

...more...

[UpInArms]

22. OT: "domestic radical right poses extremely serious threats"

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/bombing_anniversary

OKLAHOMA CITY - Before her two grandsons died with 166 other people in the Oklahoma City bombing, Jannie Coverdale thought that terrorist acts were committed only in foreign countries by people whose names are hard to pronounce.

"Before the bombing, we didn't know there were Timothy McVeighs and
Terry Nichols and all those stupid people in this country," Coverdale said. "After the bombing, we found out that we didn't have to go overseas to find those people. They're right here."

<snip>

The number of organized hate groups in the U.S. has risen 33 percent since 2000 and the potential for another domestic terrorist attack is on the rise, said Mark Potok, director of Intelligence Project at the Southern Poverty Law Center in Montgomery, Ala., which monitors hate groups.

"One of the great lessons of the Oklahoma City bombing is that the domestic radical right poses extremely serious threats," Potok said. "It taught us that not all terrorists speak different languages, wear turbans or speak to different Gods."

<snip>

There were 803 organized hate groups in the U.S. in 2005, including the Ku Klux Klan, neo-Nazis and other white supremacists, up from 602 just six years earlier, according to the SPLC.

...more...

[54anickel]

30. What U.S. Government Won't Reveal About Inflation

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_wasik&sid=aC9ifJTez_Ak

April 17 (Bloomberg) -- There's a great scene in the movie ``A Few Good Men'' in which a Navy lawyer is grilling a U.S. Marine officer played by Jack Nicholson.

``I want the truth,'' the lawyer insists. ``You can't handle the truth!'' Nicholson's character barks. I hear this dialogue in my head whenever there's a question on whether the government's Consumer Price Index, or CPI, is an honest gauge of living costs.

I'm convinced there's a much more insidious story that needs to be told as the bond and precious-metals markets gyrate daily over perceived inflation threats.

If the full impact of consumer-price increases were accounted for, investors would have a lot more to worry about, and you should prepare for a threat that's much greater than Labor Department reports indicate.

The government has a vested interest in keeping official inflation measures low. Everything from Social Security cost-of- living increases to marginal tax rates is adjusted annually to this all-important gauge.

more...

Hard to believe this is showing up at Bloomberg. They're a bit late to the party. :eyes:

[UpInArms]

33. the CPI still leaves out food and energy and that is not mentioned

:eyes:

also from your link:

The government's housing-price figure is so low that Floyd estimates consumer inflation would be as much as 1.5 percentage points higher if actual housing costs were included in the CPI.

There's even more underaccounting on two other large household bills: medical care and college financing.

Last year, health-insurance premiums alone climbed 9 percent, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation, a research organization based in Menlo Park, California. The 2005 increase ``is still more than three times the growth in workers' earnings and 2 1/2 times the rate of inflation,'' the foundation states. U.S. consumer prices rose 3.4 percent in 2005.

Paying for college? You would have seen an almost 6 percent increase in four-year private-college costs just for the 2005- 2006 year or a 7 percent climb in a public-school bill, according to the College Board, a research and testing firm in New York.

Then there's the continued wildcard of rising energy prices. Crude oil is up about 12 percent this year. Reports this month that the U.S. is preparing an attack on Iran have helped push prices near $70 a barrel at a time when supplies are running short and world pumping capacity is peaking.

[54anickel]

38. Well, it is Bloomberg afterall. Can't expect too much from them. I like

how they whore for TIPS and warn against metals in the end. Sort of reads like, "don't trust they gov't - they're lying about inflation....Trust the gov't, invest in their TIPS which are adjusted for their lies about inflation". Oh yeah, that'll keep you ahead of the real inflation they're trying to hide in this shell game. :crazy:

[54anickel]

39. Deflatuation in Silver and Gold

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=53478

An optimistic error in the meaning of deflation


Other analysts have consistently made the point that inflation and deflation can only be measured in terms of increases or decreases in the quantity of money supply. Although I must agree philosophically, my concern is how much things cost and how little I have left after paying the ever higher costs of rising bills. Rather than argue with others about definitions of inflation and deflation, the Optimist chooses the more productive path of defining the new terms of inflatuation and deflatuation to mean what seems intuitive to him. Note to readers: This is a serious discussion, and the Optimist will not take kindly to odiferous puns about FED inflatuation in handling the nation’s money.


Deflatuation is the answer, and now is the time


The Optimist confesses that in his youthful and less experienced past, he considered that deflation (which he thought of as paper money buying more essential stuff than it did previously) was possible only if the FED made a decision to push the U.S. economy into a deflationary recession worse than the 1930s. Since the political pressure would increase at least as fast as the nation’s economic pain, the Optimist concluded that our fearless leaders would not be cowered into a deflationary retreat to honest money when they could continue to boldly advance by simply printing more paper at a faster rate. Although that is still the way that he wants to bet, the Optimist has reexamined the terms he has used a little too loosely, and he has come to a new conclusion. The newsletter writers who talk endlessly about deflation (for example, see Y.Y. comments at the bottom of Is Silver or Gold Better?) are right, sort of, but their projected timing is too far in the future. The correct answer is that the real money gas is exiting financial bubbles now as we speak, and that deflatuation is not only our destiny, but it is our inescapable present as well!



Deflatuation and inflatuation defined


Come on, guys. We are trying to have a serious academic discussion here. Let’s leave the snickering thoughts about deflatuation gas exiting the financial bubbles behind. The Optimist thinks it stinks to make puns about a subject as pungently intense as deflatuation. Since inflatuation and deflatuation are my own made up words, I can conveniently define them to mean increases or decreases in the real money costs of essential items. If that sounds too simple to be useful, take another look at the microscopic print. What are essential items, and why not just consider everything? How does one measure costs? What is real money? Great! We are finally beginning to get into meaningful content. The Optimist considers essential items to be food, shelter, energy, medical, clothes, and transportation. The millions of other goods (ranging from computers and electronic toys to expensive imported cars and caviar) and services (from mega store greeter to mud bath massager at exclusive resort spas) are all relevant to the overall price environment, but differ from essentials in one very significant way. People must buy essentials regardless of the price, but people can choose to do without a few of the non-essentials, many of which did not even exist a decade or two ago.



How has the USA measured costs for the last hundred years?


Stupid question, right? The obvious answer is that goods and services have been priced in dollars for more than a century. Well, hopefully those who have previously read the Optimist’s work will not be too surprised to see a different perspective here. The USA has actually used three different currencies during the last century. Until 1933 when FDR confiscated gold, everything was priced in gold and silver. Paper certificates really were as good as gold and silver since paper was freely interchangeable with the real precious metal which backed the value of the paper. Think of those dollars (which were interchangeable with gold and silver) as colored green for good paper. Between 1933 and 1971, everything in the USA was priced in a different type of dollar. Although Americans could still exchange the new breed of dollar for silver, only foreigners could get gold for the dollar. Those transition dollars should have been colored yellow for questionable value. After Nixon slammed shut the foreign gold window in 1971, the Federal Reserve Note (FRN) was only a piece of paper which people continued to accept in payment, but only because they had no alternative to doing so. The current FRN notes we are required to accept as payment should be colored a bright red to match the rage that people will feel when they find out the truth that those government IOU Nothing notes have no intrinsic value.

more...

[54anickel]

55. Shadow Statistics

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mayer/mayer041706.html

Ben Bernanke, Fed chairman, recently delivered an upbeat view of the U.S. economy. It was cheerful, optimistic...and delusional.

The official government statistics hide many warts on the face of the U.S economy. Like makeup dabbed on an aging film star, they are an attempt to cover the wrinkles and present a veneer of youth. To most people, this is no revelation. Like plastic surgery and tummy tucks, it is what stars do to keep up appearances.

However, few know the extent of the deceit. What if you learned that inflation were closer to 7% than to the official 3%? What if unemployment were closer to 12%, rather than the official 5%? What if the economy were actually contracting, as opposed to growing?

What follows is a partial peek at the economy - sans makeup. And, more importantly, what it means for you and your hard-earned dough.

more...

[UpInArms]

35. pre-opening blather

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0. Futures trade continues to vacillate around the unchanged mark as investors continue to sift through the first big batch of Q1 earnings. Even though most of today's reports have checked in better than analysts' forecasts, the market, per usual early in the earnings season, remains cautious until an assessment on trends and guidance is possible.

08:32 am : S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.8. Futures indications improve over the last 30 minutes and now suggest a flat start for stocks, perhaps finding some comfort following a positive write-up in Barron's about Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) that has lifted the Dow component 2% in pre-market trading. Separately, April NY Empire Index checked in at 15.8 (consensus 24.0) but reaction in both stocks and bonds so far has been muted, with the 10-yr note still up 5 ticks to yield 5.02%.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.2. Futures versus fair value suggests a lower open for the cash market as concerns about rising interest rates and higher energy prices overshadow otherwise encouraging earnings news. Citigroup (C), Eaton Corp (ETN) and SunTrust Banks (STI) are among some notable names posting better than expected results but a more than 5.00% yield on the 10-yr note and crude oil futures fresh off surpassing $70 per barrel earlier continue to underpin a sense of nervousness.

[ozymandius]

36. Casino's open

9:31
Dow 11,134.53 -3.12 (-0.03%)
Nasdaq 2,325.77 -0.34 (-0.01%)
S&P 500 1,288.90 -0.22 (-0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 50.22 -0.14 (-0.28%)
NYSE Volume 20,853,000
Nasdaq Volume 41,379,000

[UpInArms]

40. 9:42 EST all better now!

Dow 11,152.14 +14.49 (+0.13%)
Nasdaq 2,328.00 +1.89 (+0.08%)
S&P 500 1,291.06 +1.94 (+0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 5.026 -0.10 (-0.20%)

NYSE Volume 105,504,000
Nasdaq Volume 114,377,000

[Roland99]

60. 10:47am and some mexed missages

DJIA 11,136.10 -1.60
Nasdaq 2,329.33 +3.22
S&P 500 1,290.28 +1.16
Russell 2000 752.47 +1.36
30 Yr Bond 5.10 -0.01
10 Yr Bond 5.03 -0.01

[54anickel]

41. Seeking Cover if the Prices of Homes Fall (New game in town)

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/15/business/yourmoney/15values.html?_r=2&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&adxnnlx=1145281480-WavJpjtmPOfe9iI9UINvig

YOU'RE worried that the law of gravity, as it applies to home prices, has merely been suspended, not repealed. Short of selling the attic (or a few outbuildings, if life has treated you very well), how can you hedge against a decline, if it ever comes?

A cheap and practical solution may be on its way. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange expects to begin trading this month in a series of futures and options that will allow homeowners and others to bet that indexes of home prices in each of 10 metropolitan areas will rise or fall.

snip>

Take a New York couple with a $1 million house who want to trade up to something on the market for $1.5 million and are worried that it might be snapped up while they try to sell their current home. Assuming they have the means, they go ahead and make the purchase, more than doubling their exposure to the market.

"As an adviser, that gives me huge concern," Mr. Cordaro said. "If the market takes a turn down, they could lose a lot of money." The new futures and options provide "an easy and low-cost way to hedge out the excess real estate costs they don't need."

This couple could sell futures contracts with a lifespan of three months on the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for New York. Each contract is worth $250 times the index level, which recently was around 210. To hedge against a $1 million home, the couple would need to sell about 20 contracts.

If home prices declined in the region during the three months, the couple would receive $5,000 for every point that the index fell, an amount that should offset a drop in the value of their home. If prices rose, they would have to pay $5,000 for every point of increase in the index, but their house should be appreciating by a similar amount. The other regions covered are Boston, Miami, San Diego, Washington, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, San Francisco and Los Angeles.

more...

[54anickel]

42. Iceland cools, raising worry of wider chill

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/04/14/business/wbiceland.php

snip>

But Iceland's ascent has hit a speed bump in the past several months. Concerned that the economy has overheated, or reacting to macroeconomic changes in other countries, some global investors, including hedge funds, have withdrawn money from Icelandic markets. This pullback has caused the main stock index, the ICEX15, to fall 18 percent, and the currency, the krona, to weaken.

These declines, some analysts say, run the risk of driving other investors away, creating a downward spiral that could have global repercussions. If nothing else, the analysts say, Iceland's own economy could be in for a rough patch, serving as a cautionary tale for other emerging markets.

snip>

Nicolas Bouzou, the chief economist of Institut Xerfi, a research concern in Paris, feels that Iceland could be the "butterfly's wing" that sets off serious problems in capital markets around the world. That is because "many countries have the same macroeconomic configuration of Iceland," Bouzou said recently by telephone. That configuration, he said, included a "real estate bubble, very strong credit expansion and a very high commercial deficit." The same could be said of New Zealand, Australia and even the United States, he added. If investors lose money in Iceland, they will pull out of other countries with similar economic structures, he said.

It is always a small event, Bouzou said, that triggers what he called "systematic crashes." In this case, he said, the event could be a further decline in Iceland's currency or stock market, or the country's inability to pay off some of its debt - which some critics believe could be a possibility.

The concern is "not that Iceland directly causes other problems," said Brad Setser, a senior economist with RGE Monitor, a research firm in New York. Instead, Iceland could remind investors that "things can turn around" in countries with a big current account deficit, a hot housing market and an overvalued currency.

more...

[UpInArms]

44. GACK! Boeing alleged to use ill-fitting parts on commercial 737s: paper

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=businessNews&storyid=2006-04-17T124642Z_01_N1754068_RTRUKOC_0_US-TRANSPORT-BOEING.xml

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Three former Boeing Co. (BA.N: Quote, Profile, Research) employees have alleged that the top U.S. planemaker installed improperly fitting parts in hundreds of Boeing 737 commercial jets, the Washington Post reported on Monday.

<snip>

The parts at issue, manufactured by Boeing supplier AHF Ducommun of Los Angeles -- a defendant in the lawsuit along with Boeing -- were made between 1994 and 2002, the whistle-blowers said.

They claim that Boeing allowed thousands of parts to be installed on the planes even though the aerospace company knew they did not meet specifications. Boeing also retaliated against people who raised questions about the parts, the whistle-blowers claim.

The whistle-blowers initially made the claims in 2002, the newspaper said. A review by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration and the Pentagon, which bought some of the planes, found the charges had no merit.

But the Washington Post said it had reviewed the FAA's probe and found that the agency failed to visit any airplanes to inspect the 200 types of parts questioned by the whistle-blowers.

...more...

(snipped out the usual corporate denials)

[54anickel]

48. Reminds me of an old Kristofferson tune

'Cause the law is for protection of the people
Rules are rules and any fool can see
We don't need no bums and whistle-blowers
Scarin' decent folks like you and me, no siree.

[loudsue]

67. HOLY SHIT!! This is scary to those of us who fly a lot!

:scared: Yipes!

[54anickel]

45. Sandy Weill to bow out at Citigroup

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2006-04-16T181417Z_01_N16332717_RTRUKOC_0_US-BIZFEATURE-CITIGROUP-WEILL.xml&pageNumber=0&imageid=&cap=&sz=13

snip>

The 73-year-old Weill set the timetable for his retirement 2-1/2 years ago when he gave the CEO throne to Charles Prince, his lower-key protege. Prince, 56, will replace Weill as chairman.

snip>

Few corporate executives have the ear of the Vatican, but Pope Benedict XVI reportedly sent his blessing to the Weills for their golden wedding anniversary last year.

snip>

Last July, he said he was "hurt" by media reports that he would leave Citigroup early to start a private equity fund with investors like Saudi Arabian Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, one of the bank's biggest shareholders.

snip>

Ugly regulatory problems, many originating when Weill was CEO, have left it more humbled, cautious and introspective.

snip>

Weill was able to create Citigroup by pushing President Bill Clinton to repeal a Depression-era law, the Glass-Steagall Act, that barred banks from doing business on Wall Street.

more...

[Jose Diablo]

111. Those 2 acts, the Glass-Steagall Act are very important part of

keeping our financial systems from interlinking and thus preventing a stock market crash from propagating into the banking system and also collapsing the banks.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glass-Steagall_Act

By repealing the Glass-Stegall Act, banks become speculators in the markets, if the market goes belly-up, so do the banks.

True, it was Clinton's watch and he was not technically republican, but I view Clinton as Republican lite. Nonetheless, the Republican dismantling of FDR's new deal through packing the NLRB with anti union pro corporation poseurs to neuter Unions, deregulation of the Saving and Loans industry, then deregulating industry after industry to give corporations free reign and as reported above the deregulation of Banks allowing them to become brokerage firms and the merger after merger until each bank is a goliath and not responsive to customers nor the whatever is left of the regulators, all this has set our country to take a fall.

The reason we had long periods of financial stability was due FDR instituting a government that regulates and holds capitalists to strict conduct. Without the FDR new deal regulations, we have gone back to merchant monopoly economics. We have seen boom cycle after boom cycle with now the realestate starting to peak. All this is done by pumping created money into that market. Shrtly we will experience the downside of the boom-bust cycles of that form of capitalism. When the Fed's are unable to create money because nobody will loan them real money on the greenbacks they create the bust part of the cycle will come back with vengeance. You see, it's the bankers that flood the market with paper to create a boom, then bust that bubble to force a deflation cycle and gobble-up all the saved wealth created in the boom cycle. It's a value pump that sucks the savings from people and delivers that saved value to the wealthy.

These Republicans are not really about sound economics, their about taking from the poor and moderate income people and giving to the wealthy, that is themselves.

With the Republicans, it's about creating an false image, then stealing everything not nailed down. They were like this in Hoovers time, and they are like this today. It's just all an image with them.

[54anickel]

127. Yep, just had a conversation about that with the in-laws this weekend.

We've stepped back to the roaring 20's, Robber Baron mentality. Ahhh, captialism at it's finest...oh, but wait - capitalism depends upon a vibrant, happy middle class to buy stuff. Even old Henry Ford understood that much. Have an unhappy middle/under class and you may end up with an up-rising and (heaven forbid if you're of the upper-class) a populist may come into power. That's when they drag out the old Communist label...they used it against FDR, they're trying to use it against Chavez and the "leftist" movement in South America. :eyes:

The conversation started when one of the in-laws asked me about a Repug rumor they heard about Citgo gas money getting funneled to al Qaeda. Sheesh, some people are soooo stinkin' gulliable. :eyes:

But, back to the topic at hand, yes the Repugs have been dismantling the New Deal and repealing regulations like there's no tomorrow...Of course to many of the "End Timer Fundies" there isn't, and the rich plutocracy uses them to push their self-interest agenda. I'm guessing it's still all a part of Newt's "Contract on America".

From your link, it was the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act that Congress passed under Clinton's watch. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gramm-Leach-Bliley_Act

The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, also known as the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Financial Services Modernization Act, Pub. L. No. 106-102, 113 Stat. 1338 (November 12, 1999), is an Act of the United States Congress which repealed the Glass-Steagall Act, opening up competition among banks, securities companies and insurance companies. The Glass-Steagall Act prohibited a bank from offering investment, commercial banking, and insurance services. The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (GLBA) allowed investment and commercial banks to consolidate, for example Citigroup and Salomon Brothers. The combined industry is known as the financial services industry.

The Act was desired by many of the largest banks, brokerages, and insurance companies in the United States at the time. The justification was that people usually put more money in investments in a good economy, but when it turns bad, they put their money into savings accounts. With the new Act, they would do both with the same company, so the company would be doing well in all economic times. This has to some extent proven true.


A better link to the history of GLBA is here - http://www.epic.org/privacy/glba/

snip>

The privacy risks from such mergers were put onto the agenda by a series of international and domestic events. On the international front, in 1995, the EU passed the Data Protection Directive, which required that international data exchanges that used EU citizens' personal data be accorded the same level of protection that their home country would afford them. This meant that US companies would have to ensure that when they used EU citizens' personal data they provided the same level of protection these citizens were afforded within the EU. The EU was especially concerned with the US government's preference for self-regulatory approaches to privacy and the lack of federal privacy legislation. While the EU-US agreed to a Safe Harbor proposal, which allowed for companies to self-regulate under FTC oversight, financial services industries were not included in the original agreement.

In the United States, privacy was increasingly cited as being at risk. Public polls at the time indicated citizen privacy awareness and unhappiness with the banking industry's lack of concern for consumer privacy issues. These poll responses led to subsequent studies that indicated how much consumers were concerned with ineffectual bank privacy standards and the lack of consumer protections against unwanted information sharing.

These attitudes were further fueled by a series of high profile cases involving banks selling consumer information with adverse consequences for customers including marketing, credit fraud, and identity theft.

In November 1997, Charter Pacific Bank of Agoura Hills, California sold millions of credit card numbers to an adult website company, which then proceeded to bill customers for access to Internet porn sites and other services they did not request. Some of the customers billed did not even own a computer. The website company had set up numerous merchant accounts under different names to avoid detection. In September 2000, the FTC announced that it has won a $37.5 million judgment against the website company. While the bank maintained that it did not do anything wrong, it has since then stopped selling credit card numbers to merchants.

But remember...the law is for the protection of the people....:evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

49. Commentary: The Capital is God in today's world

thanks to Robbien and this DU link:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x204178

:hi:

http://www.axisoflogic.com/artman/publish/article_21770.shtml

People are out – money is in

It is not work that gets rewarded today. It’s cunning and gambling and callousness. The less you care for people’s wellbeing, the better your chance to make a billion. The better you manage to close your eyes to the needs of the people who do the work, the faster can you make your own buck. People are out – money is in.

Money is in the driver’s seat, money and all the things it stands for. We the people who do the work are left by the wayside to take care of ourselves as best we can. Assuming that we are even given the slightest chance to survive. There are many places in the world where an individual’s life is worth exactly nothing. And while the people are being wilfully ignored, the hypocrites in power are singing hallelujah to the tune of family values and God’s will is being done.

The giant corporations

While Monsanto thrives and Exxon makes bigger profits than ever in history, poor farmers in India commit suicide in despair because WTO edicts deprive them of the means to make a living on their land. Huge profits for the big corporations are what matters. What for? For the usurpers to have the satisfaction of screwing somebody else while they make their billions. Big mergers destroy the lives of the little people, the hard workers who have invested their lives’ earnings in a once productive farm, in a modest-size business. Are we talking about small government? You must be kidding. Who gets the money? The giant agricultural corporations get the government subsidies and the family farmers are eaten alive while the environment is destroyed by GMO seeds and the ground water is poisoned by noxious fertilizers and waste from chemical companies. And the illegal wars fought in order to give the United States exclusive control over the planet are costing the American tax payers billions monthly.

Profit for the shareholders is the law of the day. Sure, to keep the world spinning the men and women in the driver’s seat have to let the shareholders feel contended with their small gains, but it’s the big profits that make the world go round. It’s the big arms manufacturers and the chemical industries that run the world stage and the politics. The oil companies make the biggest gain in a lifetime from the Katrina disaster which has left thousands and thousands of poor people homeless and families split up. Now, almost eight months after the disaster struck and was ignored by the government and still is, masses of people are even today without a home, without access to education, without any means of earning a livelihood.

[AnneD]

58. And in the end, when the enviroment lies in ruin,

our society in chaotic shambles, what good will that money do you. It might buy you a bit more time. You could buy oxygen and water maybe.... but extra time in hell doesn't seem like a good bargin to me. This is such a sad comment.

I feel that people will rise up eventually and those gated communities will not offer much protection. Imagine living in the green zone of Iraq or some South American city surrounded by a teaming slum. That could be our future here in the US.

[RawMaterials]

51. Halliburton Co. Is Trading Higher After KBR Unit Files For IPO

(RTTNews) - Halliburton Co. (HAL | charts | news | PowerRating) announced on Friday that its KBR Inc. subsidiary filed a registration statement with the SEC, relating to its initial public offering of its common stock. Halliburton is now trading higher by 1.38 on 2K shares Monday morning on Inet.

Halliburton climbed to the upside around mid-morning on Thursday and rose further going into the close, to finish up by 0.43 at $77.12. The stock rebounded off of the lower end of a week and a half long range.

Copyright(c) 2006 RealTimeTraders.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved


http://www.tradingmarkets.com/tm.site/news/STOCK%20ALERT/222908/

:puke:

[54anickel]

56. Pilate Error (Bonner) Past performance is no guide to future performance

snip>

"Those who do not study history are doomed to repeat it," say earnest history teachers and terminal optimists. But, it's not that easy. Studying history is a little like learning a foreign language; until you really get the hang of it, there are likely to be some misunderstandings. They come, as you might expect, in the compound tenses and subtle, subjunctive moods. The casual reader understands the major verbs, but misses the veiled meaning. He is like a Hudson River hustler trying to do business in Hyderabad - or a man trying to reason with his wife. The words will be deceptively familiar; but he'll miss the real sense of the conversation completely.

On the other hand, cut off from history, the lumpeninvestor is encouraged to not even try. He's supposed to believe that every new day is as detached from the last as Mars is from Jupiter. He is not supposed to notice that they both revolve around the same star, and repeat the same cycles over and over until the crack of doom. Taking the regulators at their word, he sees the planets in heaven and has no reason to think they will ever be anywhere other than where they are right now.

The lumpeninvestor looks at the prices on Wall Street, or those of houses in his neighborhood. Those too must be permanent, he reckons. He has no frame of reference, no theory to tell him otherwise, and no way to make a reasonable guess about where they will be tomorrow. He is as misled as a voter, but he's not the complete moron the authorities make him out to be. Warning an investor not to trust history is like a warning sailor not to go near brothels when he is on shore leave. He'll probably end up there anyway.

Today, the typical stock market investor probably feels as old as Metushélach. He entered the market in the mid-90s. He thinks he's seen it all. The market went up and then went down, didn't it? It should be ready to go up again. He can't help but notice that stock prices have gone up in the last five years, but he's discouraged by the authorities from looking any further. It's not worth the trouble, they tell him. Past performance is no indication of future performance. The past doesn't count. Forget it.

The little bit of recent history he picks up without trying, cheats him. It is as though he had noticed Mars zipping through space, without realizing it is merely retracing its steps from millions of years ago. He hasn't enough history. He has never heard of Copernicus. He thinks Pontius Pilate led a peasant revolt in Mexico. And so, he draws conclusions that are both erroneous and preposterous. Whatever he sees, he can only imagine that nothing like it has ever happened before. History has come to a dead stop. This really is a New Era on Wall Street. He sees Mars heading out into space. And, he imagines himself going where no man has ever gone before... when, actually, he never left home.

more...

[UpInArms]

57. Tyco to be charged with $1B in accounting fraud by SEC: WSJ

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BDF97B283%2DEEE8%2D4B89%2DBA95%2D5759131BB4B6%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Tyco Inc. (TYC 25.91, -0.10, -0.4% ) will be charged by the Securities and Exchange Commission with $1 billion in accounting fraud, according to a published report Monday. Tyco has agreed to pay $50 million to settle the charges, the Wall Street Journal reported on its Web site.

[UpInArms]

89. Tyco to pay SEC $50M over accounting fraud during 1996-2002

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B9B221E5B-8B51-421A-9B57-00868614464A%7D&symbol=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Tyco International Ltd. will pay the government $50 million to settle charges it overstated financial results by at least one billion dollars between 1996 and 2002, securities regulators said Monday.

The payment was expected and Tyco said in a separate press release it will have no financial impact on the company.

Headquartered now in Bermuda, Tyco (TYC 25.97, -0.04, -0.2% ) suffered a major scandal when former CEO Dennis Kozlowski and former chief financial officer Mark Swartz were accused of stealing $600 million from the company. They were later convicted of most counts against them.

"In addition to looting the company, Tyco's Kozlowski-era management lied about the company's financial results," said Linda Thomsen, enforcement chief at the Securities and Exchange Commission.

...more...

[UpInArms]

59. 10:46 EST mexed missages

Dow 11,136.45 -1.20 (-0.01%)
Nasdaq 2,329.24 +3.13 (+0.13%)
S&P 500 1,290.35 +1.23 (+0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 5.024 -0.12 (-0.24%)

NYSE Volume 415,681,000
Nasdaq Volume 422,294,000

10:30 am : Stocks continue to inch higher, as crude oil futures slip to session lows near $69.30 per barrel, but market gains remain modest at best. Technology is also underpinning a floor of support despite an overall cautious tone as semiconductor stocks reclaim nearly half of the 1.4% lost by the PHLX Semi Index last week. DJ30 +19.37 NASDAQ +6.32 SOX +0.6% SP500 +2.92 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1246/1442/328 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1217/1713/294 mln

10:00 am : Equities continue to cling to paltry gains as split industry leadership dictates early action. Energy remains the biggest standout to the upside as geopolitical pressures continue to support crude oil's attractiveness. Reports that China Construction Bank is in discussions to buy a stake in Bear Stearns (BSC 144.46 +3.19), strong earnings reports from Citigroup and Regions Financial (RF 35.83 +0.47), and an analyst upgrade on PNC Financial Services (PNC 66.94 +1.09) have helped Financial provide early leadership. Also helping to offset modest weakness in Health Care, fueled in part by a Q1 warning from HCA Inc (HCA 44.15 -0.96), has been Industrials. The sector has gotten a lift amid strong earnings and upside guidance from Eaton Corp (ETN 76.08 +1.46) as well as an upgrade on Caterpillar (CAT 77.95 +1.01). DJ30 +11.78 NASDAQ +1.06 SP500 +1.12 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1166/1307/184 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1091/1198/182 mln

09:40 am : Market opens with little fanfare as investors returning from a long holiday weekend weigh concerns about higher interest rates and rising energy prices against the first big day of Q1 earnings. Citigroup (C 48.45 +0.40) has kicked things off beating forecasts by six cents and authorizing a $10 bln buyback; but oil prices eclipsing $70 per barrel

[Roland99]

61. GMTA

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=2230864&mesg_id=2231156

[UpInArms]

63. g'morning Roland!

:hi:



shiny coin headbump :D

[Roland99]

69. Morning, UIA!

Hope you had a hoppy Easter.

:hi:

[UpInArms]

71. I puttered around planting flowers

one of my fave pasttimes :D

[Roland99]

73. he he.

[54anickel]

62. Shoot the Messenger

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/shedlock/shedlock041706.html

Mike Morgan is telling me that his email basket is filled up with responses from the Wall Street Journal article Hot Homes Get Cold In Once-Booming Markets Such as the Florida Coast, Housing Sales Languish. April 12, 2006; Page B1

I was pleased to beat the WSJ to that story by several days in The dreaded "D" word surfaces Sunday, April 9, 2006.

Here is the latest report from Mike Morgan:

I've received a variety of emails and voice mails from people all over the United States today in response to a very minor mention of my name in the WSJ. 75% of the communications are people that think I am a sleaze for selling junk to my clients. Little did they know, my clients are fine. We warned about this more than a year ago. Anyway, take a look at the email I received below. If that doesn't drive home the seriousness of what is just only beginning to unravel, I will send you a dozen more emails I received . . . like the email I received from the Dad of a young wife that is getting a divorce because the husband lost it all at the craps table in Vegas ­ strike that ­ I meant to say the husband lost it all buying flip properties in Vegas. By the way. She has 2 young babies and is moving back home with Mom and Dad. Or the email from the couple (68 and 70) that were getting ready to retire to Florida in 3 years. Guess what? They'll retire, but the husband lost so much money buying straddled foreign exchange derivatives on Italian lira ­ strike that ­ I mean to say five spec condos in Naples (Florida) to make some extra money to buy a special retirement home, that they are not going to retire in the style they thought. They still haven't sold the condos, so they are in for a big surprise. As he put it in the email, the 40 years of trust built up in that marriage has been wiped out. He wanted to know what I could do to help him. I'm not the Easter Bunny.

I bought an $850,000 a year ago on a little less than a quarter acre of land and with barely 2000 sq ft. under air. I made the "wise" choice to purchase it with no money down! This home was just on the threshold of my affordability... even with the wife working. Oh did I mention I have an ARM mortgagte... so now my payments are going up up up! S@@@... we are paying more for the same house... but not building any more equity! This sucks! Then the wife comes home after just sending the daughter to the orthodontist to get her teeth fixed, and declares ... "Tom, did you see that the Klevelands just put their house up for sale?" "No, I din't, I thought they really loved the area"... so with a little digging, I find that they are asking $800,000 for their home... and it is just about the equivalent to ours. Then your mind races... what is going on? Then you realize 3 months latter that their house is still up for sale, with a neon light above the realtor sign, that says REDUCED (to $750,000)... not only that, but there are now 20 other for sale signs up in your neighborhood... THAT IS WHEN THE SHOCKING REALITY SETS IN... you will never get that $850,000 out of your house, and all the interest you have been paying is just that... a fart in the wind... and sallys orthodontist bills are pilling up, and our credit card is maxed from all the new furnishings we decorated our $850K home with... not to mention that there are rumors at work, that the company is sending more jobs to India, to save a buck, and you panic. Now I am staring aimlessly into my newly adjusted mortgage bill thinking, "HOW THE F@@@ DID I GET MYSELF INTO THIS". So I will sell my useless home at a loss..upside down and all, move to a region with cheaper homes, maybe a "fixer upper" take a lower paying job with a commute and sell the sports car and the boat, so I can with a clear conscience look at little Sally with a mouth full of wires and crooked teeth and smile, all the while thinking, ok, now how the f@@@ am I going to pay for her college! I was one f@@@@@@@ idiot... I hope no one besides my wife ever finds out. This has just about destroyed my marriage. Oh, one more thing. Did I mention I bought another home in here as an investment flip that we closed on four months ago. I can't sell it for what I paid. I can't even find a renter. I haven't had a showing in more than 2 weeks.

more...

[UpInArms]

64. Ewwww! Followed your link to this:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2006/02/deceptive-pricing-or-deep-discounts.html

excerpt:

I called a real estate broker in Florida to discuss this situation just today. He told me the discounts are real and substantial and things are even worse than I suspect. He cited two local homebuilders in Florida that just went bankrupt this past month on 60+ unit subdivisions that will never be built. Poof. Down payments vanished because subcontractors have first right to the money for work performed.

He also offered this explanation for the rising median prices we see: When a sale is booked, it is booked at full price even though substantial discounts are taken off. In other words we have dramatically inflated sales prices even though homes are really going for less money. Such distortions likely explain rising inventory and rising medium price in the face of declining sales and rising inventory. In other words, those rising medium prices (depending on area), could largely be total fiction.

The record home starts in January are only going to make matters worse. I had to laugh today when the president said the mortgage deduction would stay a part of tax law but added "If I were you I’d be worried about interest rates."

and then to here:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11411191

excerpt:

Bush, who has called the tax code a complicated mess, is having the Treasury Department review the panel’s recommendations.

But the White House, which had initially considered rolling out a plan this year on tax simplification, has delayed that initiative. Some Republicans have said some of the recommendations from the panel, such as the one on mortgage interest, might generate too much controversy, especially in the current congressional election year.

Referring to concerns the builder had raised about interest rates, Bush said, “You’ll be happy to hear I don’t set interest rates.”

He went on to praise new Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. However, he added, “If I were you I’d be worried about interest rates.”

[54anickel]

74. Heh-heh, I was wondering if anyone was going to follow those little

gems. Thanks for pointing them out, UIA. I would have pulled the 2 from Mish's site to the forefront during the post-lunch lull if nobody caught them.

I didn't follow them all the way to the msnbc link though, so a double thank you for the Dimson quote...

“If I were you I’d be worried about interest rates.”

[AnneD]

81. This is the start...

of musical chairs....You don't want to be standing when the music stops folks. It's gonna get ugly.

[UpInArms]

65. 11:10 EST mixed with oil - Crude hits $71.25 bbl

Dow 11,135.41 -2.24 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,329.14 +3.03 (+0.13%)
S&P 500 1,291.13 +2.01 (+0.16%)
10-Yr Bond 5.026 -0.10 (-0.20%)

NYSE Volume 510,365,000
Nasdaq Volume 509,875,000

11:00 am : Market pulls back within the last 30 minutes, briefly pushing the Dow below the flat line, as June crude oil futures hit new session highs of $71.25 per barrel (+$0.43). It is worth noting that traders are becoming more focused on the June crude contract since the May contract, which is currently at $69.70 per barrel (+$0.38), will expire on April 20th. DJ30 -0.08 NASDAQ +3.35 SP500 +1.56 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1369/1437/460 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1283/1712/384 mln

[UpInArms]

66. Ulticom misses Form 10-K deadline; to restate 2002-2005 - Crap numbers

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BF089B33E%2DC4CF%2D4C8B%2D9A6E%2DB71EF1C1385C%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Ulticom Inc. (ULCM 10.08, -0.18, -1.8% ) said Monday its Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended Jan. 31, 2006, will not be filed on time due to an ongoing review by the company's audit committee. The committee is reviewing the accounting treatment of certain options awarded by Comverse Technology Inc. (CMVT 23.12, -1.08, -4.5% ) , Ulticom's majority shareholder, to the company's management and employees prior to its initial public offering. Ulticom said it expects to record additional non-cash charges for stock-based compensation. The charges are expected to be material. Additionally, the company said it will need to restate its financial statements for the fiscal years ended Jan. 31, 2002, through Jan. 31, 2005. Ulticom said it has concluded that financial statements and other related reports from its independent public accounting firm should no longer be relied on.

How many more "restatements" for these crap accountings will we see? I do believe that most of the financials for many corporations are unreliable (jmho).

[UpInArms]

72. Judge explains venue transfer in AIG-Gen Re fraud case

Greenberg's initial statement on fraud: "no impact" :rofl:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B0682BCB9-DD2F-4F8A-B532-96C47770F486%7D&symbol=

A federal judge in Virginia granted the request of three former General Re executives to transfer their fraud trial to Connecticut in part because trying the case in Virginia would result in a "substantial balance of inconvenience" for them.

<snip>

Ferfuson, Monrad, Graham and Milton are facing securities fraud, conspiracy and other charges in connection with what prosecutors have alleged was a scheme to make it falsely appear that AIG had bolstered its loss reserves by $500 million in late 2000 and in 2001.

<snip>

Last June, John Houldsworth and Richard Napier - two senior Gen Re executives, pleaded guilty to conspiracy to falsify filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission in connection with the transactions.

At a hearing in New York last week, a state judge granted a 60-day stay on depositions of some witnesses in a separate civil case brought by New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer against former AIG Chairman Maurice R. "Hank" Greenberg over the insurance giant's accounting.

<snip>

Last May, AIG announced it would restate more than four years of its earnings and said, without naming Greenberg directly, that former executives at times were able to "circumvent internal controls over financial reporting."

...more...

[Jemmons]

75. Dollar Falls Sharply in Asian Trading

Monday April 17, 5:36 am ET
Dollar Falls in Asian Trading on Media Reports Suggesting China May Cut Treasury Holdings

TOKYO (AP) -- The dollar fell against the euro and yen in Asia Monday on a media report suggesting that China might reduce its purchases of U.S. Treasuries, and amid speculation that U.S. interest rates may have peaked.

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The U.S. dollar fell as low as 118 yen at one point before trading at 118.28 yen in Tokyo midafternoon, down 0.36 yen from late Friday in New York. The euro rose to $1.2178 from $1.2108.

Cheng Siwei, vice chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, was quoted in a Chinese state-owned newspaper Monday as saying that China should cut the amount of U.S. Treasury bonds it buys.

He said China should channel the money into buying more U.S. goods, which would cut its politically sensitive trade surplus, the China Securities Journal reported. Cheng made a similar remark earlier this month to a Hong Kong newspaper, prompting the central bank to say his comments didn't reflect its official position.

China has $875.1 billion in foreign currency reserves, much of that money invested in U.S. Treasuries. Reducing those purchases could undermine the dollar.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060417/dollar.html?.v=1

[UpInArms]

78. Welcome to the SMW, Jemmons !

:hi:

The dollar is always one of our favorite topics :D

[Jemmons]

82. Thank you!

I never paid much attention until someone posted something on the Iranian Oilbourse and the potential threat to the dollar. That particular problem has turned out to be quite a bit overstated, but the discussions and a bit of research would show that a lot of people wrote about big potential problems for the dollar and strange things going on with M3 and such.

It seems like we are living in very interesting times right now.

[54anickel]

93. Fistfuls of dollars: Are markets reconciling US imbalances through gold &

Fistfuls of dollars: Are markets reconciling US imbalances through gold & commodities?

(Have to read between the "subscribe now" blocks)

http://capuchinomics.com/news/index.php?option=content&task=view&id=233&Itemid=

Large gains are piling up in commodities markets and prices are surpassing levels that are well beyond those dictated by demand and supply calculations. Some commentators and journalists have even raised the "B" word (i.e. bubble) with respect to these gains.

The largest gains have accrued to industrial and precious metals with copper, zinc, aluminum, silver and gold that have each marked multi-decade high levels. Increasingly, the stock explanation of "soaring demand from China and India" can no longer explain the surge in the prices of these commodities. Capuchinomics believes that something larger and potentially more troubling is afoot.

As we search for explanations we find little in the last quarter century by which to compare the current commodities boom and its implications for contemporary financial markets. However, this much we do know, investors can put away the market handbook of the last financial era, which ended in 2000. This handbook in hindsight can be summarized in two lines : "Buy the dips in US stock and bond markets. Hold and never sell."

Following these two guidelines over the last bull market has minted millions of millionaires in the US who have by skill (few) or by chance (most) invested their money in stocks and long duration bonds. This largely accidental achievement has inured both professional and amateur investors to easy success and a belief that these markets always go up. They are not aware that the handbook's two line rule is not a coda. The context and circumstance that made following the handbook's rules so profitable no longer exist: disinflation, declining interest rates, a rising dollar and declining real costs for raw materials (i.e. commodities). Investors still betting on a "buy the dips" strategy are in for a surprise.

snip>

The IMF is right about one thing. The US's reserve currency status allows it more options than a country like Argentina. It can choose to "break the bank" i.e. maintain the value of the dollar or "break the dollar" i.e. save the economy. By this we mean that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates precipitously to defend the dollar but will not. Instead they will allow the dollar to sink by keeping interest rates low. Congress pandering to a suddenly pathologically insecure electorate is readying protectionist legislation and a pork filled 2007 budget, that could precipitate a "break the dollar" event.

[54anickel]

94. Oil frenzy fuels threats to global economy: experts

http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=82333&version=1&template_id=48&parent_id=28

snip>

“In some ways, this is the third act in the saga of imbalances,” said Raghuram Rajan, research director at the IMF.

“In the first act in the late 1990s, foreign capital was attracted to the US causing a counterpart current account deficit. In the second act, expansionary policies in the US caused the deficit to widen,” he added. “And in the third act, which is what we are seeing now, higher oil prices will widen existing global current imbalances and prolong them.”

Warnings of the kind from the IMF are not entirely new.

But with little sign that oil traders are likely to temper their ardour as long as international tensions over Iran - Opec’s second largest oil producer - persist, economists believe the situation is increasingly fraught.

“The likelihood of a bond market crash has increased considerably in recent months and there is a joint risk of a slide in the dollar,” Veronique Riches-Flores, chief economist at the French bank Societe Generale, said. The persistent rise in oil prices is “a major risk for bond markets and consequently a major risk for the world economy,” she added.

Meanwhile, the US is relying on the huge dollar reserves held by Asian central banks and oil producing countries - nations with big current account surpluses - to finance its deficit. Without them, the US currency would lose a crucial prop and could collapse.

more...

[54anickel]

100. The Oil Prices and Nuclear Case of Iran

http://www.iranian.ws/iran_news/publish/article_14923.shtml

snip>

The single major reason for the sharp increase of the oil prices is development. The economy of the world has witnessed progress in the last couple of years. US, China and India, Latin America, and others are thirsty for oil due to the rapid development. The great scope of development in the world has changed the balance of the demand and supply for oil. The wave of industrialization in many countries all over the world has created huge demand for oil and this has resulted in the fundamental increase in the oil prices.

snip>

The way that the oil market is reacting to the events of the world these days creates a notion that perhaps the oil market knows something that many people don't see them. Perhaps this is due to the connection of the oil with important persons who have access to important information.

Another important and interesting issue regarding the oil prices is that many experts predicted the oil prices over 60 dollars will devastate the economy of the world and a recession will take over all over the world. It is almost a year that the oil prices have not gone under sixty dollars and it seems that the international economy has not made much complaint.

The reality is that many things can happen in future to make the balance of the supply and demand more disturbed. For example, if the news of the possible sanctions against Iran sends the price a couple of dollars higher, then the real cutting of the Iranian oil from the make will possibly make the prices to go up in the range of 80 to 120 dollars.

The tension of the oil market is rooted in the prospect of terrible incidents that makes the prices get out of control. Under such circumstances, the prices will not know any range. This is a recipe for war of oil. The countries of the world "addicted" to oil and their industries thirsty for oil will engage in a cutthroat competition for access to oil resources.

more...

[54anickel]

97. A meeting of fragile world powers

http://www.thestate.com/mld/state/news/opinion/14359003.htm

Chinese President Hu Jintao visits the White House this week hoping to update Chairman Mao’s adage about who rules whom: In an era of global commerce and finance, power flows from the spout of an oil well and a mountain of foreign currency reserves.

It is in Hu’s interests to underline to President Bush and to Congress that a balance of economic terror exists today between America and Asia. Just as the doctrine of mutually assured destruction restrained the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, the prospect of mutual financial ruin keeps suspicions and hostility between Beijing and Washington loosely in check today, even if gun barrels still count as well.

It is in U.S. interests that the Thursday meeting be conducted as carefully as American presidents handled U.S.-Soviet summits in the age of nuclear confrontation. That will require a mixture of firmness and flexibility rooted in America’s own values and interests, rather than in accepting Hu’s special pleadings and his analysis of where modern power lies.

There are strong American reasons not to brandish economic “rockets” such as the recent unrealistic threats in the Senate of self-punishing tariffs against Chinese imports, or to play on Chinese fears of encirclement as some military planners here seem to enjoy doing. These reasons go beyond simply avoiding the obvious damage Beijing could do to the value of the dollar and the U.S. economy by abruptly dumping the huge quantities of Treasury bonds it buys with the proceeds of its trade surplus.

Bush and Hu should construct their meeting to produce joint agendas on global energy conservation, currency exchange fluctuations and investment codes of conduct as the global economy enters a particularly uncertain moment. Cold War rules negotiated to avoid “breakouts” by either side on nuclear weapons could be a conceptual model for new agreements to stabilize a delicate balance of financial and trade instruments.

more...

[54anickel]

110. Bush May Not Get Help He Needs From China's Hu Jintao (Update3)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a_WkfT7C0f50&refer=us

April 17 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush, under pressure from Congress to get tough with China, needs President Hu Jintao's help to show that it's better to engage than to alienate the world's biggest developing economy.

Hu meets this week in Washington with a politically weakened Bush, who's trying to fend off legislation to punish the Chinese for alleged currency manipulation, unfair trade practices and product piracy.

snip>

`Significant Pressure'

The U.S.'s diplomatic wish-list, which may take a back seat to economic issues, is also long. The administration wants China to support United Nations sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program, lead efforts to get North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program and stop abusing human rights.

``Significant pressure is building up in Washington concerning what is perceived to be foot-dragging on the part of Chinese on these issues,'' says Elizabeth Economy, director of Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

Hu has an agenda of his own for the meeting, and economic matters may not be at the top of it. Rather, Hu probably will press Bush to reaffirm a ``one-China'' policy and opposition to any move toward independence by Taiwan, the island nation that has been ruled separately since China's civil war ended in 1949.

``The Taiwan issue is miles ahead of any other agenda, as far as China is concerned,'' says Tao Dong, chief Asia economist at Credit Suisse in Hong Kong. Taiwan's president, Chen Shui- bian, has scrapped a forum on unification and Taiwan yesterday rebuffed an offer for talks conditional on the island's recognition of the one-China position.

more...

[54anickel]

101. Are Capital Controls Planned for Americans?

http://news.goldseek.com/CharlestonVoice/1145199660.php

Capital controls? What are those?

They are restrictive devices imposed by sovereign governments in collaboration with or under the direction of their respective central banks. For Americans it would mean our US Treasury would issue a declaration and the Federal Reserve would ensure compliance. Controls are designed to eliminate the outflow of capital (cash instruments) to outside the jurisdiction of the Federal Reserve. They are a time-worn device to prop up a failing currency and maintain the political ascendancy of the status quo.

In fact, we've gotten snippets of it here not too long ago with the freezing of assets of Iran, Iraq, and Libya whose deposits may have been in not only US banks, but those of foreign banks with US branches under the supervision of the Federal Reserve. Great Britain imposed them during the British pound crisis of the 1960s. Argentina slapped them on its citizens during their monetary crisis. Russia had them for decades during the Soviet regime as did other nations of the Soviet sphere. They can last for generations. If Cubans can ever cast off the chains of communism they can tell you about them. The Philippines have had them. Rhodesia (Zimbabwe) has had them, and still does. South Africa's had them, but now they have a two-tiered currency system - one currency for the home boys and one for the corporates and other elites. Red China has a two-tiered currency also, the yuan and the renminbi. 'Capital controls' is a euphemism for 'foreign exchange controls'.

Of course, in the case of the imposition of forex controls in the US we'll be told is for national security reasons, and to clamp down on terrorist financing. Foreign exchange "speculation" will be blamed for attacking the US dollar. Yeah, baby, we're all for fighting terrorism! Go get 'em Mr. President. Americans won't even recognize they're the intended victim of the control restrictions. US equity markets would take off like a rocket. In nominal dollars, however. Without M3 as a fever thermometer the Fed can get on with the business of monetizing (creating fiat) our debt. Long term rates would decline as investors have fewer avenues of investment alternatives. The Working Group on Financials and the Plunge Protection Team will be right there to assist and lend support and plug any cracks perceived in the US financial mortar.

But, we as Americans now live in an "interdependent" world now, don't ya know. A world to which we readily gave (not lent) our jobs along with gobs of fiats. We gave them a choice alright; take our fiats or suffer the alternative of our 6th Fleet diplomacy. Oh, don't worry Wal-Mart will still be there. Maybe with fewer items to select from, but in war we all must make sacrifices. Most parts for your Toyota will come thru although at horrendously higher prices. Haven't you heard of the worldwide shortage of upholstery fabric and transmission parts for heaven's sakes?

more...

[54anickel]

77. The “Holy Grail” (At the end of the Credit Bubble Bulletin)

http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp

Fed chairman Bernanke has proffered that “to understand the Great Depression is the Holy Grail of macro-economics.” Regrettably, that prolonged quest has proved a colossal misadventure. There is, however, an opportunity for redemption. In the end, mastery of the current Global Credit Bubble and inevitable bust offers the (long-delayed) bounty of macro-economic “salvation.”

Reading the analyses of today’s Depression experience authorities (notably Dr. Bernanke and Univ. of California’s Dr. Barry Eichengreen) leaves one with the sense that they are oblivious to the essence of the inevitable repercussions from the preceding boom’s gross excesses and distortions. There remains a curious disregard for the fundamental role played by Credit and speculation in fostering the fateful Bubble, this despite centuries of financial history illuminating their central responsibility. Rather, the inclination is to point blame at the Federal Reserve for not aggressively inflating the money supply after the stock market crash, as well as the deflationary forces supposedly imposed by the global gold standard monetary regime. It all may be politically correct, exactly what the economic community and policy-makers are eager to hear, and exceptionally career constructive, but that doesn’t elevate it to sound analysis.

I am compelled to expand on the superb analysis highlighted last week from “Banking and the Business Cycle” published in 1937. For starters, I definitely give contemporaneous analysis credence, knowing that views developed some decades later will be adulterated by misconceptions, personal and ideological biases, historical revisionism, and by whatever economic fad that is all the rage at the time. The authors’ focus on boom-time money and Credit excesses as a leading cause of the Depression was exceptional and quite credible. Nonetheless, the boom had unique circumstances that proved to be major distracting factors for the purposes of developing a more general and long-standing theory of business cycles.

The Federal Reserve System was in its infancy during the “Roaring Twenties” boom, so its operations and influence were understandably an analytical focal point for contemporary and future economists alike. Discerning analysts of that period focused on the Fed’s prominent role in fostering and repeatedly bolstering the boom-time monetary expansion, while today’s Depression “experts” fault the incompetent Fed for its failure to orchestrate post-Bubble reflationary measures. This irresoluble debate certainly detracts from a clearer understanding of and appreciation for the paramount role of boom-time Credit and speculative excesses.

more...

[54anickel]

79. Slow learners but worth the wait

http://www.prudentbear.com/randomwalk.asp

snip>

Speaking of easy money, banks are tripping over themselves to get credit cards into the hands of the Chinese population. Bankers see how readily the Chinese embraced freer markets, and how eagerly they migrated to the big cities in search of a better standard of living. Isn’t the next logical step to start buying lots of stuff on credit?

Evidently not. To the chagrin of Chinese and foreign banks, Chinese consumers still save 16% of their income, an archaic practice Americans gave up long ago. Oh sure, Chinese shoppers use their credit cards, many making virtually all of their purchases with plastic. The problem is that most Chinese are painfully proficient at paying off their balances each month. According to Bloomberg News, the number of credit cards issued in China increased by a factor of 13 in that last two years. But just 2% of cardholders carry a balance forward into the next period.

But the credit card marketing machine is confident that the Chinese are a quick study. A McKinsey consultant quoted in the story said that Chinese consumers eventually would become “accustomed to rolling over the bills,” as if spending yourself into a deep hole is learned behavior rather than a boneheaded financial move. Meanwhile, the credit companies are eager to teach them the benefits of immediate gratification by offering zero interest arrangements or generous credit limits.

But so far, credit card profits are slim. At least one big Chinese bank has yet to reach break-even in its credit card unit as Chinese frugality is winning out over Master Card moments. The Bloomberg reporter speculates that this penny pinching is deeply ingrained in Chinese society, even dating back to the days of Confucius.

more...

[AnneD]

84. Credit card profits are slim....

let me tune up :nopity:

[UpInArms]

80. Citibank: Credit cards, global consumer banking yield sluggish results

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B76130874-55A4-48AD-A557-D9D931E7D9DC%7D&symbol=

excerpt:

"The main negative is ongoing pressure in U.S. consumer, especially given spread compression, and private banking sluggishness," wrote Michael Mayo, an analyst with Prudential Equity Group, in a note to clients.

During the latest quarter, U.S. card revenue fell 6% to $3.23 billion from $3.46 billion for the same period last year. U.S. consumer lending slipped 8% to $1.26 billion, down from $1.37 billion, and U.S. commercial lending tumbled 31% to $470 million from $678 million for the year-ago period.

The results didn't translate into profit declines for U.S. credit cards, which rose 19% to $926 million. That was the exception, however, as U.S. commercial lending fell 50% to $126 million and domestic consumer lending fell 10% to $437 million.

<snip>

But they added that internal decisions were a factor. "Some of it is because things haven't worked out as well as we hoped," said Sallie Krawcheck, Citigroup's chief financial officer, in a conference call.

Still, Citigroup's strong investment-banking quarter was more than enough to offset the consumer sluggishness.

...more...

[UpInArms]

83. Ohio Univ: Early-retirement volunteers lower than hoped to avoid layoffs

http://www.athensnews.com/issue/article.php3?story_id=24172

The number of Ohio University employees taking advantage of the early-retirement option so far is lower than university officials had hoped it would be.

<snip>

OU created the early-retirement program earlier this year as part of its budget-realignment plan. The plan calls for cutting $18.6 million from the university's budget for the 2006-2007 school year. The cuts include layoffs of some classified and administrative staff and the reduction in staff through the early-retirement program. Employees eligible for early retirement will receive a $10,000 bonus if they choose to retire before April 28.

Trustee M. Marnette Perry said in a report to the full board that 308 employees are eligible for early retirement and that 45 have agreed to take the early retirement so far. Perry said that of the 45 employees, 11 work in the administrative staff and 34 work in the classified staff. She added that 91 employees have attended information sessions discussing the benefits of the early-retirement program.

<snip>

Last month, however, OU officials were speculating that up to half of the 308 eligible employees might take advantage of the early retirement option, which meant that more than 150 employees would retire early. University officials were also saying that they hoped that half of those positions could be eliminated to save money, which meant that the university could eliminate around 75 positions through the program. Less-expensive workers without seniority presumably would take the other half.

...more...

Who can afford to retire these days? Too much debt still outstanding with that negative savings rate :eyes:

[RawMaterials]

86. But you could take the retirement program

and then find another job to supplement your income. If I was old enough and had a this proposed i would think about it.
The problem is ohio university is in athens ohio and that is the main employer with in probably 120 miles, so they would have to sell their house's and move some wear else.

[AnneD]

95. UNLESS... you have a job waiting in the wings...

most people will hold on to their jobs. The package was not attractive enough, a 10k bonus is nothing unless you are very close to retirement. I have also noticed that those that take the early retirements seem to be the ones that you don't want to leave.

[UpInArms]

87. 12:31 EST choosing the color red

Dow 11,108.68 -28.97 (-0.26%)
Nasdaq 2,322.90 -3.21 (-0.14%)
S&P 500 1,288.76 -0.36 (-0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 5.030 -0.06 (-0.12%)

NYSE Volume 777,977,000
Nasdaq Volume 783,079,000

12:00 pm : Market trades with a tinge of caution midday as investors returning from a long holiday weekend continue to weigh worries about higher interest rates and rising oil prices against a mixed bag of Q1 earnings. Citigroup (C 48.43 +0.38) got things rolling before the bell, beating forecasts by six cents and authorizing a $10 bln buyback. However, the blue chip's leadership has been tempered by uncertainty that typically lingers at the start of earnings season and the nervousness attached to interest rate risks and rising energy prices -- all of which play into our Neutral market view.

With regard to industry strength and weakness, sector leadership remains mixed. Oil prices near $70 per barrel continue to validate our Overweight rating on Energy, the year's best performing sector (+12.3%). Gold prices near $610 per ounce -- a move that continues to stoke inflation worries -- coupled with analyst upgrades on U.S. Steel (X 64.14 +1.08) and sigma-Aldrich (SIAL 67.64 +1.90), remain strong sources of support for Materials. Nonetheless, the sector's 3.1% weighting (the lowest) on the S&P 500 has had little impact on the overall market. Aside from Citigroup's solid report providing support for Financial -- the S&P's most influential sector, the brokerage group has gotten a lift following reports that China Construction Bank is in discussions to buy a stake in Bear Stearns (BSC 144.00 +2.73).

Weakness in Health Care, fueled by further consolidation in managed health and a Q1 warning from HCA Inc (HCA 44.86 -0.25), coupled with the absence of leadership from Technology and Industrials, continue to stall more aggressive buying efforts. The latter sector had gotten an early lift following strong earnings and upside guidance from Eaton Corp (ETN 75.12 +0.50) as well as an analyst upgrade on Caterpillar (CAT 77.51 +0.57), which underscores our Overweight rating on Industrials, but has been unable to shake a 1.4% decline in General Electric (GE 33.40 -0.49). DJ30 -1.68 NASDAQ +2.33 SOX +0.3% SP500 +1.88 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1447/1467/680 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1440/1655/534 mln

11:30 am : Major indices continue to weaken heading into the lunch hour as their sluggish performance continues to underscore our Neutral market view. The Dow has extended its reach into negative territory as key components (e.g. HPQ, JPM, MO and VZ) reverse course. Intel (INTC 19.23 -0.22) slipping to session lows ahead of its earnings report after the bell Wednesday is also acting as an overhang both on the Dow and the Nasdaq. DJ30 -12.29 NASDAQ -0.88 SP500 +0.71 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1355/1522/582 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1336/1705/466 mln

[UpInArms]

91. 12:48 EST Brown matter and fan meet

Dow 11,079.62 -58.03 (-0.52%)
Nasdaq 2,316.88 -9.23 (-0.40%)
S&P 500 1,285.79 -3.33 (-0.26%)
10-Yr Bond 5.028 -0.08 (-0.16%)

NYSE Volume 836,734,000
Nasdaq Volume 848,281,000

12:30 pm : All three major averages now trade below the flat line as the afternoon session gets underway, spearheaded by a reversal in semiconductor. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 31.30 -0.50) breaking beneath its Thursday low of $31.61 has been the most notable laggard, extending Thursday's 10% drubbing. Other PHLX Semi Index components weighing on the group with declines of more than 1.0% include AMAT, BRCM and INTC. DJ30 -24.96 NASDAQ -2.67 SOX -0.2% SP500 -0.42 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1458/1478/768 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1469/1646/604 mln

[ozymandius]

102. no better at 1:24

Dow 11,078.66 -58.99 (-0.53%)
Nasdaq 2,312.19 -13.92 (-0.60%)
S&P 500 1,285.56 -3.56 (-0.28%)
10-Yr Bond 50.16 -0.20 (-0.40%)
NYSE Volume 957,519,000
Nasdaq Volume 991,772,000

1:00 pm : Indices extend their reach into negative territory as lingering geopolitical concerns continue to spark safe-haven buying opportunities for commodities -- a group which unfortunately provides minimal leadership from an equity standpoint. Aside from the nervousness underpinned by oil prices flirting with $70 per barrel, gold futures soaring to successive 25-year highs, recently reaching $615.80 per ounce amid aggressive fund buying, plays into growing fears of rising prices since gold tends to act as an inflation hedge. DJ30 -51.63 NASDAQ -9.37 SP500 -2.72 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1630/1340/888 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1624/1510/678 mln

[Roland99]

103. 1:25pm and faeries haven't shown up for duty yet

DJIA 11,078.70 -59.00
Nasdaq 2,311.88 -14.23
S&P 500 1,285.47 -3.65
Russell 2000 748.00 -3.11
30 Yr Bond 5.08 -0.02
10 Yr Bond 5.01 -0.03

[54anickel]

107. U.S. shareholders criticize Goldman Sachs for Park deal in Chile

Goldman Sachs CEO Henry Paulson has come under fire from irate shareholders who say he is using company assets to further his own personal environmental goals in Chile.

http://www.mercopress.com/Detalle.asp?NUM=7682

In 2004, under Paulson’s leadership, Goldman Sachs donated a 2,750 square kilometer tract of land in southern Chile to the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS), creating the Karukinka wildlife reserve.

As part of the arrangement, Goldman also put up US$6.6 million of its own money to fund the Chile environment project. The Goldman Sachs website describes the land deal as a first-of-its-kind private/public alliance.

According to Steven E. Sanderson, President and CEO of the Wildlife Conservation Society, “this could be one of the great conservation gifts of our lifetime. (The park) will be a tremendous legacy for the people of our generation to offer to the next.” The deal has been lauded by environmental groups as an example of corporate America taking responsibility for the earth.

But some Goldman Sachs shareholders disagree. A group of shareholders has charged that Paulson had no right to use company assets in what they described a personal project, and suggest that his commitment to environmental conservation constitutes a conflict of interest. On April 6, a group called the Action Fund Management LLC (AFM) requested that Paulson reimburse the company for “any shareholder assets spent to advance his personal interests.”

Why is Paulson being so roundly criticized for what seems to be such a progressive approach to corporate responsibility? One reason may be his personal and family links to environmental groups.

more...

So, why does Bush like this guy as a replacement to Snowjob? There's got to be more there besides his huge financial support to the RNC. :shrug:

[UpInArms]

115. 2:34 EST still bloody

Dow 11,055.60 -82.05 (-0.74%)
Nasdaq 2,302.77 -23.34 (-1.00%)
S&P 500 1,282.22 -6.90 (-0.54%)
10-Yr Bond 5.001 -0.35 (-0.69%)

NYSE Volume 1,234,420,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,333,882,000

2:00 pm : Sellers remain in control of the action as the May oil contract eclipses $70 per barrel and the June contract flirts with the $72/pbl level, weighing heavily on sentiment and fueling concerns of higher energy bills crimping discretionary spending. Adding to this afternoon's struggles has been the inability by the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq to find support near key technical levels of 11088, 1283 and 2302, respectively. DJ30 -83.20 NASDAQ -24.49 SP500 -6.69 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1898/1100/1.18 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1875/1323/844 mln

1:30 pm : Market continues to weaken as selling remains widespread across most areas. Treasuries, though, continue to catch a bid and are trading near session highs. The 10-yr note is now up 9 ticks to yield 5.00% following a report that typically gets overlooked. At the top of the hour, the National Association of Home Builders said the U.S. housing market index fell by four points to 50 in April, the lowest level since November 2001.DJ30 -59.21 NASDAQ -14.23 SP500 -3.62 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1762/1220/1.00 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1767/1400/748 mln

[Roland99]

116. Another day like this & it's back below 11k. Can't have that now, can we?

[54anickel]

117. Dow, Nasdaq Slide As Oil and Gold Rise

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060417/wall_street.html?.v=14

NEW YORK (AP) -- Surging gold and energy prices dragged stocks lower Monday as inflation fears curbed Wall Street's enthusiasm over solid first-quarter earnings from financial services firm Citigroup Inc.

Although Citigroup's upbeat results fed optimism about corporate earnings for the latest quarter, investors again fixated on inflation and interest rates after Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Michael Moskow said he feels the central bank must remain "vigilant" in its policy of boosting rates to stem price increases.

Without new data to help gauge the economy's health, Wall Street turned its attention to the commodities markets, where oil prices reached $70 a barrel and gold lingered at a 25-year high. But despite the threat of rising raw material costs, the inflation picture has remained somewhat positive recently, said Russ Koesterich, portfolio manager at Barclays Global Investments.

"Core inflation (excluding volatile energy and food prices) has stayed relatively contained," Koesterich said. "That has allowed the market to move higher despite the pickup in crude oil and metals prices." Reports on wholesale and consumer inflation are due later this week.

more...

[ozymandius]

121. 3:17 and still pouring

Dow 11,057.46 -80.19 (-0.72%)
Nasdaq 2,303.03 -23.08 (-0.99%)
S&P 500 1,282.87 -6.25 (-0.48%)
10-Yr Bond 50.07 -0.29 (-0.58%)
NYSE Volume 1,413,089,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,490,682,000

3:00 pm : Major averages continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges but the bulk of industry leadership remains negative. Industrials has recently joined Technology as the second economic sector to lose at least 1.0% today. Consumer Discretionary isn't far behind (-0.9%) as surging oil prices have weighed on retail and homebuilding has been unable to take advantage of falling bond yields following a disappointing housing report. Energy and Materials are the only sectors gaining ground but since they combine for just 12.9% of the weighting on the S&P 500 are providing very little in the way of market leadership. DJ30 -88.63 NASDAQ -24.21 SP500 -7.54

[Roland99]

120. Hmm...GE's down 2.1% so far today.

[ozymandius]

122. One share of GE stock is like a share in a mutual fund.

GE is so heavily diversified that when it performs this poorly, it gives me a shudder. This 2% loss will matter if this is a repetitive trend toward the downside.

[Roland99]

124. It's where my dad has a chunk of his retirement in (he retired from GE)

[Roland99]

125. Closing in the red (with a minor recovery at the end)

DJIA 11,073.80 -63.90
Nasdaq 2,311.16 -14.95
S&P 500 1,285.33 -3.79
Russell 2000 749.47 -1.64
30 Yr Bond 5.08 -0.03
10 Yr Bond 5.01 -0.03

[ozymandius]

126. blather for you

4:20 pm : The market extended last week's consolidation efforts Monday as ongoing concerns about rising energy and commodity prices overshadowed respectable earnings and falling bond yields. Crude oil futures closed at a new record high of $70.40 per barrel amid growing fears tied to Iran's nuclear ambitions. The June contract, which has more open interest and will replace the May contract on April 20th, closed up 1.6% at an even higher $71.98 per barrel to help Energy turn in the day's best performance but not enough leadership to support the overall market since only two sectors finished in positive territory.

Other commodities benefiting from a weaker dollar as well as safe-haven buying interest following comments from Fed President Moskow that policy makers must be "vigilant" to ensure increases in energy and commodity prices don't spur inflation, were gold and silver. Gold soared to a successive 25-year high, closing up 3% at $618.40 per ounce, while silver closed at a new 23-year high of $13.38 per ounce, which helped Materials post the day's only other gain among ten economic sectors. Unfortunately for the bulls, putting money into such hard assets continued to stoke inflation concerns and only added to uncertainty that typically lingers at the start of earnings season and the nervousness attached to whether or not the Fed will go too far with monetary policy to restrain inflationary pressures -- all of which play into our Neutral market view.

The greenback was weak following comments out of China suggesting their central bank would scale back dollar-based asset accumulation efforts but stabilized somewhat in the wake of much better than expected Net Foreign Purchases data. The latter report, coupled with a weaker-than-expected report on manufacturing activity in the New York Federal Reserve district and a report that showed the U.S. housing market index fell by four points to 50 in April, the lowest level since November 2001, also helped Treasuries attract buyers who were few and far between when it came to stocks. The 10-yr note ended the day up 9 ticks to yield 5.00% but that was only enough to stall even more damage in the rate-sensitive Financial sector.

Speaking of, Citigroup (C 48.33 +0.28) kicked things off, beating forecasts by six cents and authorizing a $10 bln buyback. The brokerage group, which supports our Market Weight rating on Financial, got a lift following reports that China Construction Bank is in discussions to buy a stake in Bear Stearns (BSC 143.26 +1.99). However, sector gains were offset by in-line report from Wachovia (WB 55.03 -0.82) and Charles Schwab (SCHW 17.35 -0.24).

Among the eight economic sectors closing lower, Technology turned in the day's worst performance amid consolidation in hardware and semiconductor. Despite strong earnings and upside guidance from Eaton Corp (ETN 75.80 +1.18), which helped underscore our Overweight rating on Industrials, the sector was unable to keep sellers from locking in recent profits. Health Care was another influential leader to the downside, led by weakness in HMOs and biotech. CRB -1.0% DJ30 -63.87 DJTA -1.3% DJUA +0.1% DOT -0.8% NASDAQ -14.95 SOX -1.5% SP400 -0.3% SP500 -3.79 XOI +1.8% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1785/1294/1.81 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1842/1425/1.33 bln