STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 19 April

[ozymandius]

Wednesday April 19, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 1006 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1945 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1645 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1606
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 18, 2006

Dow... 11,268.77 +194.99 (+1.76%)
Nasdaq... 2,356.14 +44.98 (+1.95%)
S&P 500... 1,307.65 +22.32 (+1.74%)
Gold future... 623.30 +4.50 (+0.72%)
30-Year Bond 5.06% -0.01 (-0.28%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.97% -0.03 (-0.66%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[InsultComicDog]

1. 'morning, Ozy

:kick:

[ozymandius]

3. Good morning InsultComicDog.

:donut: I hope all is well in your world.

:hi:

[AnneD]

36. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: and all you lurkers. I know it is a bit early to choose a theme, but I just saw that Dumbya made the cover of the Rolling Stone magazine as the worst president in US history so for that reason I would like to recommend that Dr. Hook's Cover of the Rolling Stone be our theme today. Something a little camp for all those suckers in the pits.

And speaking of suckers....Gas went up $0.11 over night here. Cheapest gas is $2.79. Glad I filled up Monday at $2.68.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[ozymandius]

102. The cost rises daily in Atlanta. Just yesterday:

regular unleaded
ARM9

silver unleaded
LEG9

premium unleaded
HAHA9

[ozymandius]

2. WrapUp by Ike Iossif - WEEKLY CHARTS

Last week (4-7-06) we said, "Higher oil prices and higher bond yields put the equity markets under pressure and on the defensive. Given that all the technical indicators have turned down--assuming that we don't get a downside reversal in oil and in yields--we ought to expect a continuation of Friday's decline at least for another 1-3 trading days."

We have enough data points to--at least--determine that next week is a significant one; here are the reasons why:

1. Last week the McClellan Oscillators got to oversold levels.
2. All of our own indicators are at support.
3. Our short-term timing indicators are all neutral.
4. The SP--in terms of price--is at support.
5. Next week is Options Expiration.

Notice what happened during the previous two OPEX weeks in February and in March under similar technical circumstances. In the first case, we had a 30-point rally, and in the second we had a 40-point rally. So, here is next week's significance:

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

34. For stocks, is this as good as it gets?

http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/19/markets/markets_peak/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote

snip>

"Markets don't make a top and then slide, topping is a process," said Barry Ritholtz, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Research. "Typically markets make an initial top, back off, try to surpass it, and can't do it."

This process repeats itself a number of times until the market stops trying to surpass that earlier high.

That high may have been hit near the end of March or early April, which would mean that this current advance is as good as it's going to get for the major gauges for a while.

That's not to say that the market is likely to fall sharply from here on out, or that select sectors won't thrive. But there are plenty of reasons to argue that the best days are over for stocks, at least for now.

But wait, the Dow industrials just soared 195 points, you say. And minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting seemed to imply that rate hikes are nearly over.

Both are true.

But the near-term threats to stocks are equally apparent despite Tuesday's 'what, me worry?' rally.

more...

[ozymandius]

4. Today's Reports

8:30 AM Core CPI Mar
Briefing Forecast 0.2%
Market Expects 0.2%
Prior 0.1%

8:30 AM CPI Mar
Briefing Forecast 0.3%
Market Expects 0.4%
Prior 0.1%

10:30 AM Crude Inventories 04/14
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior 3230K

[UpInArms]

24. U.S. March CPI up 0.4%, core up 0.3%

8:30 AM ET 4/19/06 U.S. CPI CORE UP 2.1% IN PAST 12 MONTHS

8:30 AM ET 4/19/06 U.S. CPI UP 3.4% IN PAST 12 MONTHS

8:30 AM ET 4/19/06 U.S. MARCH CORE CPI LARGEST GAIN SINCE MARCH 2005

8:30 AM ET 4/19/06 U.S. MARCH CORE CPI UP 0.3% VS. 0.2% EXPECTED

8:30 AM ET 4/19/06 U.S. MARCH CPI UP 0.4% VS 0.3% EXPECTED

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BC407E83A%2D9B31%2D4AFD%2D8223%2DE40FF46E80F0%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. consumer price index rose 0.4% in March, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. Prices were higher across the board, with only natural gas, new vehicles and education prices declining in the month. The increase was above Wall Street's expectations of a 0.3% gain. The core CPI, meanwhile, increased 0.3%, a tick higher than the 0.2% gain expected. This is the largest increase in core prices since last March. The CPI has risen 3.4% in the past 12 months, down from 3.6% last month. The core rate is up 2.1% year-over-year, the same as last month. In March, energy prices rose 1.3%. Food prices rose 0.1%. Housing prices increased 0.2%.

[UpInArms]

26. U.S. March core CPI gain biggest in year

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B86CBEAE4-1E7E-450E-B16C-A64B7508E95B%7D&symbol=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. core consumer prices increased at the largest pace in a year, the Labor Department said Wednesday.

The core consumer price index -- the measure of retail-level inflation that excludes food and energy prices -- increased 0.3% last month, matching a 0.3% gain in March 2005.

Overall, consumer price inflation also picked up in March, rising 0.4%.

The gains in both the consumer price index and in core prices were above Wall Street expectations.

<snip>

Energy prices rose 1.3% in March, completely reversing the decline in the previous month. Gasoline prices increased 3.6%, while electricity prices rose 0.5%

...more...

[Roland99]

52. Biggest gain in a year and stocks CELEBRATE!!

[UpInArms]

69. Petroleum Inventories Report: Crude, Distillate, Gasoline all DOWN

10:31 AM ET 4/19/06 U.S. CRUDE SUPPLY DOWN 800,000 BRLS LAST WK: ENERGY DEPT

10:31 AM ET 4/19/06 U.S. DISTILLATE SUPPLY DOWN 2.8 MLN BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

10:31 AM ET 4/19/06 U.S. GASOLINE SUPPLY FALLS A 7TH WEEK: ENERGY DEPT

10:31 AM ET 4/19/06 U.S. GASOLINE SUPPLY DOWN 5.4 MLN BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

[UpInArms]

70. U.S. gasoline supply falls for a seventh week: Energy Dept

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B1F0C2580%2D9C8C%2D4B43%2D8DD7%2D6E825A425899%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Energy Department said motor gasoline inventories dropped 5.4 million barrels for the week ended April 14 to total 202.5 million. Supplies have lost a total of 23.4 million barrels in seven weeks and are 4.6% below the year-ago level, the government data showed. Crude stocks fell 800,000 barrels to total 345.2 million barrels -- 6.6% above the year-ago level. Distillate supplies fell 2.8 million barrels to 114.6 million. They're 9.7% above the year-ago level. May crude rose 25 cents to $71.80 a barrel, reversing from an earlier low of $70.95 to trade at a new record of $71.70. May unleaded gas rose 0.61 cent to $2.2365 a gallon and May heating oil added 0.52 cent to $2.056 a gallon.

[UpInArms]

71. API posts across-the-board fall in petroleum supplies

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B7D241FF0%2DF872%2D4503%2D82BF%2D8A0F91981BBA%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The American Petroleum Institute said crude inventories fell 4 million barrels for the week ended April 14, higher than the Energy Department's reported 800,000-barrel decline. Motor gasoline inventories were down 3.3 million barrels. Distillate stocks fell 2.8 million barrels, the API said.

[UpInArms]

74. Cleveland Fed: US Median CPI up 2.7% in past year

11:04 AM ET 4/19/06 U.S. MEDIAN CPI UP 2.7% IN PAST YEAR: CLEVELAND FED

11:04 AM ET 4/19/06 U.S. MARCH MEDIAN CPI UP 0.4%: CLEVELAND FED

[Roland99]

86. A little reminder about how CPI has been altered (read: Lowered) >>>>

"GOVERNMENT ECONOMIC REPORTS: THINGS YOU'VE
SUSPECTED BUT WERE AFRAID TO ASK!"

A Series Authored by Walter J. "John" Williams

"The Consumer Price Index"
(Part Four in a Series of Five)

September 22, 2004

http://www.gillespieresearch.com/cgi-bin/bgn/article/id=343

[ozymandius]

5. Oil dips under $71 after record high

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - U.S. oil eased on Wednesday but kept sight of its record high above $71 a barrel as dealers feared Iran's intensifying row with the West over its nuclear aims may cut supplies from the world's fourth-largest exporter.

U.S. May crude oil futures fell 38 cents to $70.97 a barrel by 0757 GMT, after hitting a record-high of $71.60 the previous day, breaking through last August's $70.85 peak.

-cut-

A price rally ignited two years ago by strong demand in fast-growing Asian economies and extended last year by fears of limited global refining capacity has been given new legs by geopolitical tensions in OPEC producers Iran, Iraq and Nigeria.

Oil has trebled since the start of 2002 and may be set to test the inflation-adjusted peaks above $80 a barrel reached in the early 1980s, just after the Iranian Revolution, setting off alarm bells in consuming nations fearful of an economic hit.

more

[ozymandius]

10. OIL FUTURES: ICE Brent Steady; Mkt Eyes US Gasoline Stks

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Crude oil futures moved in a tight band Wednesday, with the likelihood of another drawdown in already tight U.S. gasoline inventories supporting the market.


-cut-

Prices on both sides of the Atlantic remained well above $70/bbl and show little signs of giving up recent gains due to ongoing supply concerns and worries about U.S. gasoline stock levels.

Oil brokers said there was growing anxiety about a tight U.S. gasoline market. Gasoline stocks have been shrinking in the run-up to the high demand summer driving season, and inventories have declined by nearly 18 million bbl over the past six weeks as refiners have reduced operations to conduct seasonal maintenance.

Heightening the concern about gasoline is some confusion about upcoming gasoline specification changes.

more

[Roland99]

77. Pushing $72 now.....$71.70

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B1F0C2580%2D9C8C%2D4B43%2D8DD7%2D6E825A425899%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

[UpInArms]

97. May Crude @ $71.20 bbl - May Unleaded Gas @ $2.207 gal (GACK!)

12:07 PM ET 4/19/06 MAY CRUDE FALLS 15C TO $71.20/BRL AFTER A RECORD $71.80 HIGH

12:07 PM ET 4/19/06 MAY UNLEADED GAS DOWN 1.89C AT $2.207/GAL AFTER $2.24 HIGH

[UpInArms]

110. May Crude @ $72.30 bbl

2:15 PM ET 4/19/06 CRUDE FUTURES TAP A RECORD AT $72.40/BRL NEAR THE DAY'S END

2:15 PM ET 4/19/06 MAY CRUDE LAST UP 95C, OR 1.3%, AT $72.30/BRL IN NY

[UpInArms]

116. Crude futures close at a record above $72 per barrel - @ $72.17 bbl

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BB19D7939%2D8628%2D4074%2D9D22%2D45F741ACEF71%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- May crude rose 82 cents to close at $72.17 per barrel, a record closing level for a front-month contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices tapped a record intraday high of $72.40. Strength in oil followed the first decline in U.S. crude supplies in a month, as well as seven-straight weeks of falling gasoline inventories. May unleaded gasoline rose 1.55 cents to close at $2.2394 a gallon after reaching a contract high of $2.25. Prices for a front-month contract haven't traded this high since Aug. 2005, according to National Futures Advisory Service.

[ozymandius]

6. March housing starts, permits decline

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The pace of U.S. housing construction slowed more than expected in March as both the rate of starts and permits declined to their lowest levels in a year, the government said on Tuesday in a report suggesting further cooling in the market.

The Commerce Department said March housing starts fell 7.8 percent to a 1.960 million unit pace from an upwardly revised 2.126 million unit rate in February.

Economists had expected groundbreaking on new homes to ease to a 2.030 million unit pace from February's originally reported rate of 2.120 million units.

More sluggish single-family home construction easily offset strength in the pace of groundbreaking on multifamily units, the report showed.

more

[ozymandius]

7. Wholesale Prices Up 0.5 Percent in March

WASHINGTON - A big jump in gasoline prices pushed inflation at the wholesale level up in March at the fastest pace in three months, as oil prices above $70 a barrel sent consumers a high-octane warning of expensive fuel costs ahead.

The Labor Department reported that wholesale prices rose by 0.5 percent in March following a 1.4 percent decline in February, which had been the largest drop in nearly three years.

The March increase was slightly worse than the 0.4 percent rise that Wall Street had been expecting and was driven by a 9.1 percent surge in gasoline prices, the biggest one-month gain since November 2004.

more

[ozymandius]

8. Fed mulling end to rate rises, FOMC minutes say

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve policy-makers meeting on March 27-28 felt the U.S. central bank was nearly done raising interest rates, but remained worried about potential inflation risks, according to meeting minutes released on Tuesday.

"Most members thought the end of the tightening process was likely to be near, and some expressed concerns about the dangers of tightening too much, given the lags in the effects of policy," said minutes from the policy-setting meeting, the first under new Chairman Ben Bernanke.

The benchmark federal funds rate target was moved up a quarter-percentage point to 4.75 percent at the conclusion of the March meeting -- the 15th time policy-makers agreed to raise interest rates since mid-2004.

Many analysts now think the Fed may stop after one or two more rate rises, a sentiment clearly reflected in the market reaction immediately following publication of the minutes.

more

[Nickster]

101. Is it just me, or does it seem like this is a bunch of hogwash? I don't

expect the rate increases to stop anytime soon.

[salin]

9. bush panel wants to tank provisions from Corp Acct Reform

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2235092

Seems relevant - but I think the article title doesn't quite conjour up what the article and thread are about. Would hate folks to miss the fact that they are trying to get exemption for 4 of 5 publically traded companies from rules making it a gov. issue to review numbers and report in order to catch and prevent broadscale fraud.

[ozymandius]

11. Yahoo profit slides 22%

Stock climbs 6% after Net company declares optimism

Yahoo Inc. said Tuesday that its profit dipped during the first three months of the year as it adjusted to new accounting rules for the first time.

But the Sunnyvale Internet company, whose stock has been battered in recent months, said it felt upbeat and countered reports suggesting that rival Google Inc. is threatening its growth.

"We think the game is just beginning and we are confident about the future," said Dan Rosensweig, Yahoo's chief operating officer, in an interview.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/04/19/BUGGPIB7U21.DTL

[ozymandius]

12. Microsoft suffers new anti-trust blow

Microsoft has failed in its US court attempt to get Novell to reveal documents it gave to the European Commission for use in its anti-trust case.

In rejecting the request, Boston district court judge Mark Wolf said Microsoft was trying to circumvent EU laws.

-cut-

The ruling comes after similar requests by the Redmond-based company were rejected by courts in California where it had asked for access to documents provided by Oracle and Sun Microsystems.

very short...

http://www.vnunet.com/computing/news/2154277/microsoft-document-claims

[ozymandius]

13. Home Mortgage Giant to Pay $3.8 Million in Fines to F.E.C.

WASHINGTON, April 18 — Freddie Mac, the home mortgage powerhouse, agreed on Tuesday to pay $3.8 million in civil penalties to the Federal Election Commission, which had accused it of improperly funneling corporate executives' donations to candidates and holding lavish fund-raisers that often benefited congressmen on an influential House committee.

It is the largest fine that the F.E.C. has obtained in a civil case.

Dating from the 2000 elections, the events detailed in the agency's filings show that one of the corporation's executives, Robert Mitchell Delk, was the host of 70 campaign fund-raisers held mainly at the expensive Galileo restaurant here. Those events raised about $1.7 million for federal candidates.

The agency found that Freddie Mac, a federally chartered corporation that promotes home ownership, had violated laws or regulations that prohibit it from some campaign fund-raising activities like using corporate resources for fund-raisers.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/19/washington/19freddie.html

[UpInArms]

28. Ex-Freddie lobbyist offered political plan to Oxley (R-Ohio)

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=google&guid=%7B83D66F8D-375F-43F4-8FFE-3A7FDF0D85CA%7D&keyword=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- A Federal Election Commission report said Tuesday that Freddie Mac's (FRE) former top lobbyist boasted in 2002 of presenting a "bold and unprecendented" political model to a senior lawmaker that would benefit both the company and the politician.

The report, released Tuesday in conjunction with a record $3.8 million settlement with Freddie, details the access that R. Mitchell Delk, who resigned in March 2004, had with House Financial Services Chairman Michael Oxley, R-Ohio.

The 21-page report said that Delk notified former Chief Executive Leland Brendsel in 2001 that the government-sponsored enterprise had held more than 40 fundraisers for Oxley, who is chairman of the House Financial Services Committee.

Oxley oversees the House committee that is considering legislation to create a new regulator for Freddie and Fannie Mae. A spokeswoman for Oxley didn't return a call for comment.

In 2002, Delk notfied Brendsel, according to the FEC, that "we proposed to Chairman Oxley a political model that was bold and unprecedented. We offered to use our fundraising model to marry his interests as Chairman with our interest in assisting committee members supportive of the continued strength of America's housing finance system..."

...more...

[ozymandius]

14. Investors target the New York Times

Investors led by Morgan Stanley on Tuesday mounted an attack on the leadership of the New York Times Company, and called for a removal of the dual share structure that has allowed the Sulzberger family to preserve its control over the influential media group.

As a symbol of the dissatisfaction, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, which owns more than 5 per cent of the company's shares, witheld its ballots in elections on Tuesday for the board of directors. According to one lawyer present at the media group's investor meeting, other sympathetic investors did the same, bringing the total of withheld ballots to 31 per cent.

-cut-

The campaign is another sign of the turmoil in the newspaper industry, whose future has come into question as readers and advertisers flock to the internet.

It has also laid bare the tensions among shareholders at family-controlled media companies, such as the New York Times and Dow Jones, publisher of the Wall Street Journal.

more

[54anickel]

29. This line sound so ironic when tied to the NYT

While the families argue that their control is necessary to preserve journalistic integrity...

I'd be right at their side backing their argument - if it were only true. :eyes:

[spotbird]

38. Pathetic really

What's truly ironic is that they haven't converted the right, but they've lost the left since the switch to Faux in print. When are these media outlets going to learn that there is demand for honest news?

[UpInArms]

15. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

Last trade 88.04 Change +0.02 (+0.02%)

Follow Through, Finally!

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_technicals/Follow_Through__Finally__1145441069833.html

EUR/USD – The euro rallied 133 pips following Monday’s 176 pip performance. Most important for bulls was the daily close above the 1.2323 double top as indicated by highs on 1/25 and 4/6 at 1.2323 and 1.2331. The pair has stalled at the 76.4% fibo of 1.2589-1.1640. Negative divergence with oscillators on the hourly points to much needed consolidation / correction before bulls attempt a run at higher prices. Pullbacks from the recent rally find support at the 4/6 high of 1.2331. A break exposes the 23.6% fibo of 1.2068-1.2369 at 1.2300. The next target for bulls would be the 9/2/2005 high, also the top of the head and shoulders, at 1.2588.

<snip>

USD/JPY – The Yen gained against the dollar and USD/JPY traded south of 117.00 for the first time since April 5th. The pair stalled in Tokyo trading at the 61.8% fibo of 115.49-118.86 at 116.73, which is the first area of support going forward. More importantly, USD/JPY rests right at a supporting trendline dating to May 2005. Possibility remains for gains suggested by the ascending triangle on the daily as long as the pair does not close below the supporting trendline. A break below targets the confluence of the 3/28 low / 76.4% fibo of 115.49-118.86 at 116.25/29. Additional weakness exposes the 3/20 low at 115.49. Contra moves target the 4/17 low at 117.51 with a break above targeting the 61.8% fibo of 118.82-116.73 at the psychological 118.00.

...more...

Tomorrow's Economic Releases: More Inflationary Data For The Dollar

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/calendar/key_events/Tomorrow_s_Economic_Releases__More_Inflationary_1145397637103.html

US Consumer Price Index (MAR) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
(MoM) (YoY)
Consensus: 0.4% 3.5%
Previous: 0.1% 3.6%

Outlook: The Consumer Price Index is expected to reflect inflation of 0.4% in consumer prices throughout the U.S. over the month of March. Expecting that much of this inflation will result from an uptrend in crude oil prices that began in the latter half of the month, economists predict the core figure to read 0.2%. Steeper fuel costs may result in a higher overall figure for more reasons than the fact that the underlying commodities are included in the basket of goods comprising the index. For example, some airline companies have reported to raise one-way fares by $50 to cover their fuel expenses. Because airline tickets are considered a service and services make up 60% of the entire index, such price increases will push the overall figure even higher. Another indication of increased inflation in March is the surge in commodities prices. Rapid wage growth and economic expansion in the first quarter will also add to inflationary pressure. With inflation already looming at the upper end of the Federal Reserve’s target range, the central bank will need to take measures to solidify its hold on inflation before enacting any changes in monetary policy.

Previous: In February, the U.S. Consumer Price Index registered a reading of 0.1%, marking a substantial slowing of consumer price inflation from the previous month when the CPI issued a reading of 0.7%. The month’s dawdling pace of consumer price inflation suggests that businesses may finally be losing the ability to pass costs along to a willing consumer. Increased competition from abroad has made it difficult for companies to charge their customers higher prices out of fear of losing market share. Prices for goods imported from abroad decreased by 0.5%, the first depreciation in three months. To compete with cheaper imports, domestic producers were forced to keep a hold on prices. Also preventing prices from inflating at a faster pace was February’s stabilization in crude oil. Energy prices on the whole fell 1.2% on the month in comparison to January’s 5% increase, led by a 4.5% decrease in natural gas prices. February’s slowdown in inflation prompted speculation that the Fed may start backing down from its tightening policy later in 2006.

...more...

[UpInArms]

80. that bounce for the dollar didn't last long

Last trade 88.02 Change 0.00 (0.00%)

Settle Time 15:00 Open 88.03

Previous Close 88.02 High 88.42

Low 87.86 2006-04-19 11:10:03, 30 min delay

[54anickel]

94. Dollar still plummets amid Central Bank's inaction (Russia)

http://www.rbcnews.com/free/20060419122156.shtml

RBC, 19.04.2006, Moscow 12:21:56.And hour and a half after the opening of today's special dollar trading session for tomorrow deals, the weighted average dollar exchange rate stood at 27.47 RUR/USD. Thus, the official dollar exchange rate for April 20 may sink by RUR0.10. Combined with yesterday's loss of RUR0.13, the dollar has now tumbled by a total of RUR0.23, or 0.8 percent.

Today's developments have been triggered by the euro's considerable strengthening against the dollar on international exchanges. The euro is currently trading at USD1.2354 on the global market, up by 0.9 percent from USD1.2243 at midday yesterday.

The dollar's collapse has become the lowest one-day fall since April 5, and it was observed amid high dollar sales. As of 11:30, the trade volume stood at almost USD279m. However, the Bank of Russia could manage the supply and prevent the ruble from such a steep rise. Yet, the Central Bank has opted out of any interference with the ruble's strengthening again.

[UpInArms]

111. dollar sipping pond water

Last trade 87.76 Change -0.26 (-0.30%)

Settle Time 15:00 Open 88.03

Previous Close 88.02 High 88.42

Low 87.73 2006-04-19 14:48:06, 30 min delay

[UpInArms]

16. US home loan demand down as rates hit new highs

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-04-19T110144Z_01_N19176532_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-MORTGAGES-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, April 19 (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage applications fell for a second consecutive week, led by a decline in demand for home purchase loans, as interest rates reached new multiyear highs, an industry trade group said on Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity for the week ended April 14 decreased 1.7 percent to 569.6 from the previous week's 579.4.

Borrowing costs on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, excluding fees, averaged 6.56 percent, up 0.06 percentage point from the previous week, its highest level since the week ended June 7, 2002 when it reached 6.65 percent.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, the industry benchmark, is also above last year's high of 6.33 percent, reached in the week of Nov. 11 after climbing on and off from a 2005 low of 5.47 percent in June.

The MBA's seasonally adjusted purchase mortgage index fell 2.7 percent to 407.4 from the previous week's 417.7.

The index -- widely considered a timely gauge of U.S. home sales -- was also below its year-ago level of 466.7.

The group's seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications decreased 0.4 percent to 1,526.1 compared to 1,532.4 the previous week. A year earlier the index stood at 1,870.0.

...more...

[UpInArms]

17. US fund sorry for tax evasion, will cooperate with SKorean prosecutors

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060419/bs_afp/skoreabankingcrimeuscompany

SEOUL (AFP) - US investment fund Lone Star has apologized for understating tax liabilities here following its controversial purchase of a South Korean bank and offered 100 million dollars to charity to help make amends.

Lone Star chairman John Grayken said the company was the victim of a rogue employee who had embezzled millions of dollars and underestated income in order to hide his wrongdoing.

<snip>

The Lone Star chairman said that the company's head representative in South Korea from 1998 to 2005, Stephen Kim, who has since been fired and returned to the United States, caused Lone Star affiliates to break several laws.

Lone Star's reputation has been battered following its decision this year to sell its majority stake in Korea Exchange Bank (KEB) for a windfall profit of some five billion dollars.

Local media say the firm will avoid paying tax on the gain because the sale is being conducted through a tax haven.

...more...

[54anickel]

25. Maybe I'm misunderstanding here (it's early for me) but it sounds like

they fired this guy for stealing booty from them and shipped his ass back to the US, but never told the SK authorities because that would cost them a cut of the ill-gotten gain.
They sell for a windfall profit of 5 BILLION US buckeroos, get nailed for a mere $765 Million deposit for taxes and make a charitable jesture of a mere $1-2 Million.
Oh yeah, but they did say they were sorry - surely that's gotta count for something as well. :eyes:

[AnneD]

39. They're sorry alright...

sorry they got caught. I think you summed it up nicely. Here :donut: it's on me.

[UpInArms]

41. but.. but... but... It was only one bad apple! ..... eom

[AnneD]

83. I subscribe to the

'shit floats' theory of management.:spray:

[UpInArms]

18. India's Wipro net profit jumps 26.9 percent on outsourcing boom

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060419/bs_afp/indiatechnologywiprocompanyresults

BANGALORE, India (AFP) - India's third-largest software exporter, Wipro, annual net profit climbed 26.9 percent as revenues crossed the two-billion-dollar mark in a booming outsourcing market.

Net profit of the New York Stock Exchange-listed firm jumped to 20.7 billion rupees (460 million dollars) for the financial year to March 2006 from the previous year's 16.3 billion rupees, the company said in a statement.

Revenues at Wipro Ltd, whose clients include General Motors and Microsoft, rose 30 percent to 106.26 billion rupees (2.3 billion dollars), according to Indian accounting rules.

During its fourth quarter, net profit rose 43 percent to 6.1 billion rupees from a year earlier on revenues that climbed 35 percent to 31.1 billion rupees, beating market expectations.

The software developer, 84-percent owned by India's wealthiest tycoon Azim Premji, said it added 42 clients in the fourth quarter ending March.

During the full financial year, the company, headquartered in the southern high-tech city of Bangalore, recruited 11,885 employees, increasing staff strength to 53,742.

...more...

[UpInArms]

19. Enron: Skilling's temper shows up

http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/18/news/newsmakers/enron_trial/index.htm?eref=yahoo

HOUSTON (CNNMoney.com) - In his second day of cross examination, Enron's former chief executive Jeffrey Skilling's carefully maintained composure began to show signs of wear Tuesday as he fielded tough questions from the government over the way in which Enron met earnings targets.

By afternoon, as government prosecutor Sean Berkowitz accused Skilling of directing his lieutenants to dip into Enron's reserves in order to meet or beat earnings estimates, and showed e-mails and reserve account charts to back up his point, Skilling became increasingly agitated.

<snip>

Skilling looked increasingly upset as he read the transcript and when Berkowitz said "let's move on," Skilling jumped forward in his seat and angrily said "let's not move on."

He heatedly tried to explain that the reserve charts shown by the prosecution weren't finalized financial reports but rather a mid-quarter estimate of how much reserves Enron expected to have and therefore it wasn't appropriate to present them as evidence that Enron dipped into reserves to bolster earnings.

Berkowitz, who maintained his calm through Skilling's outburst, said "I know that you at times overreact to people who are critical, but if you could, just let me ask the questions and move along, Mr. Skilling."

...more...

[UpInArms]

20. Iraq: US contractor pleads guilty to fraud (bid rigging/bribery), US says

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=topNews&storyid=2006-04-18T224730Z_01_N18405035_RTRUKOC_0_US-IRAQ-CRIME-PLEA.xml

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A U.S. contractor in Iraq pleaded guilty in connection with a bid-rigging scheme designed to defraud the former Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq, the Justice Department said on Tuesday.

In a plea deal unsealed in federal court, contractor Philip Bloom admitted that between December 2003 and December 2005, he conspired with some public officials, including several U.S. Army officers, to rig bids on Iraq rebuilding contracts.

The total value of the contracts awarded to Bloom exceeded $8.6 million for construction and demolition projects, the department said.

Bloom admitted paying the authority and U.S. military officials more than $2 million in money and gifts, the department said. In exchange, they used their official positions to award contracts to Bloom and his companies.

<snip>

The U.S.-led Coalition Provisional Authority governed Iraq after the March 2003 invasion. Iraqi authorities took control in June 2004.

...more...

I wonder if some of those that are currently supporting Rumsfailed took that money?

[UpInArms]

64. U.S. Contractor in Iraq Admits Paying $2 Million in Bribes

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-bribes19apr19,1,567123.story?coll=la-headlines-nation

WASHINGTON — A contractor in Iraq has pleaded guilty to providing money, sex and designer watches to U.S. officials in exchange for more than $8 million in reconstruction contracts, federal officials announced Tuesday.

<snip>

According to court filings, the scheme began in January 2004, when Bloom began paying bribes to Robert J. Stein, a civilian contractor who controlled $82 million in reconstruction funds as the comptroller for the coalition's headquarters in Hillah. Stein, who had a previous conviction for fraud when he was hired, pleaded guilty to accepting bribes and other charges in February.

Stein funneled money and favors from Bloom to other officials in Hillah, all of whom helped direct contracts to a group of companies controlled by Bloom, according to court filings. Two officers in the U.S. Army Reserve, Lt. Col. Michael Wheeler and Lt. Col. Debra Harrison, have been arrested in the case. Officials expect more arrests to come as Bloom cooperates with investigators.

From January to June 2004, when the coalition government ended, Bloom provided Stein and the officers with first-class plane tickets, real estate lots, weapons, new SUVs, cigars, Breitling watches, jewelry, alcohol, sexual favors from prostitutes kept at Bloom's Baghdad villa and cash bribes, according to court documents.

<snip>

The contracts were paid with Iraqi funds held in the Development Fund for Iraq, which has been at the center of many of the corruption scandals in Iraq. One audit determined that the coalition government, which was run by L. Paul Bremer III, could not properly account for the disposition of almost $9 billion from the development fund.

...more...

[UpInArms]

21. At -7, Confidence Keeps on Truckin' but Outlook Remains Negative

http://abcnews.go.com/US/PollVault/story?id=1856387&page=1&CMP=OTC-RSSFeeds0312

<snipping past spin>

This week's ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index stands at -7 on its scale of +100 to -100, as high as it's been since mid August. One of the three components of the CCI, rating personal finances, is also at a post-Katrina high.

<snip>

But this survey finds continued pessimism regarding the economy's direction. By more than a 2-1 margin, Americans believe the economy's getting worse rather than better, similar to what it was last month. "Getting worse" is nine points higher than the long-term average.

Overall, assessments of the economy's direction have been negative for more than two years; the last time economic optimists outnumbered pessimists was in January 2004, when a plurality of Americans thought the economy was holding steady.

<snip>

TREND — The index has been as low as -13 so far in 2006, and it's currently at its high for the year, -7, matching its level three weeks ago. Its all-time high was +38 in January 2000; its all-time low, -50, in February 1992. It has averaged -10 this year, about the same as its -9 average since December 1985.

<snip>

On both the CCI and assessments of the country's economic future, huge partisan splits remain. The CCI is +38 among Republicans (a 14-month high), but -23 among Independents and -32 among Democrats. Optimism is also much higher among Republicans (35 percent say the economy's getting better) than among Independents (11 percent) and Democrats (just 3 percent).

...more...

[54anickel]

22. Forget women, men chase gold

http://www.financialexpress.com/latest_full_story.php?content_id=124271

SINGAPORE, APRIL 19 : In gold-crazy India, it's now not just the housewives who are buying the metal to add to their jewellery collections. Their husbands, with an eye for long-term investment, are also joining the queue.

As gold surges to 25-year highs and outperforms many other assets, India's appetite for gold bars is rising at a faster rate than the growth in jewellery demand, said Mukul Sonawala, president of the Bombay Bullion Association.

"A new breed of people is emerging in India where they are buying and holding gold in bullion form," Sonawala told Reuters.

"There is a clear shift towards that. It's just not the housewife buying jewellery. We are seeing serious investors now."

more...

[54anickel]

31. It's a gold rush as savers sock the bars away

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20060419.RGOLDBAR19/TPStory/Business

snip>

He's not the only one surprised by the growing appetite. In Ottawa, silver demand at the Royal Canadian Mint tripled in the first quarter. Kitco.com, a global gold dealer based in Montreal, has hired 10 new salespeople to take calls, while another distributor, based in B.C., is busy shipping coins across the country.

Rising geopolitical tensions and record oil prices are boosting the allure of precious metals, sending gold to its highest level since 1980 and silver to a 23-year high yesterday.

But it's not just exchange-traded funds or mining company shares that are popular. Canadians -- and investors around the world -- want the real, physical stuff.

snip>

The Mint's recycling business, which buys old jewellery or silver flatware from individuals and turns them into coins and bars, has soared in recent months in lockstep with the run on commodities prices. Thus buyers of Canadian gold coins can't be certain whether they're derived from Aunt Bessie's wedding ring or come fresh from the mines.

more...

[54anickel]

32. Gold, oil hit fresh highs, get more mainstream support

http://www.mineweb.net/sections/whats_new/247041.htm

JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) -- Anyone needing further proof that investment in commodities like gold and oil have gone mainstream, got it last night. Jim Rogers, celebrity investor, bestselling author and famous for his apparent insights into commodity markets, is the latest to join the cheerleaders.

In an interview with Bloomberg published overnight, the until now muted Rogers added his voice to those who believe oil, gold and other commodities have entered a Super Cycle. He expects the upswing to last some years and drive prices much higher.

Rogers raised the bar for gold, predicting a peak of $1 000 an ounce although he has not set a time limit. His public pronouncement follows the forecast of $850 earlier this month by Paul Walker, who as chief executive of respected gold market researchers GFMS is another “serious” commentator.

Just how opinions have changed is reflected in skeptical response last December to cycles analyst Issy Bacher’s $700 forecast on Moneyweb Radio. Then gold was trading at $490. Last night (April 18) in New York it set a fresh quarter century high of $624, adding almost $10 on the previous day.

Bacher remains upbeat, but warns the next barrier will be far tougher to crack than the $600 mark bullion cruised through this week. He reckons $700 was the “true” high of the 1979/80 gold bull market, with the spike to the record $850 being more froth than substance. But as in December, the investment crowd is not paying much attention to Bacher’s views. This time he is regarded as overly conservative.

more...

[UpInArms]

46. June Gold @ $626.70 oz - May Silver @ $14.16 oz - May Copper @ $2.973 lb

9:50 AM ET 4/19/06 JUNE GOLD CLIMBS $3.40 TO $626.70/OZ AFTER $629 HIGH IN NY

9:50 AM ET 4/19/06 MAY SILVER UP 37.5C, OR 2.7%, AT $14.16/OZ AFTER $14.21 HIGH

9:50 AM ET 4/19/06 MAY COPPER UP 0.2C AT $2.973/LB AFTER $2.98 HIGH

[UpInArms]

51. Gold futures climb as much as 1% in morning trading

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B6F7C2BFB%2DF057%2D4DF8%2DA3D5%2D886EC8CFC8F0%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- June gold climbed to $629 an ounce in morning trading, a level the futures market hasn't seen since late 1980. The contract was last up $3.70 at $627 an ounce. "The volatile mixture of oil, gold, and world economics and politics continues to show signs of disquieting instability," said Jon Nadler, an analyst at bullion dealers Kitco.com. "The three components of this maelstrom appear to feed off of each other, as news propels oil, and then oil propels gold." May silver was also up 38.5 cents, or 2.8%, at $14.17 an ounce and May copper reached $2.978 a pound, up 0.7 cent.

[UpInArms]

72. Gold @ $631.30 oz

10:37 AM ET 4/19/06 GOLD FUTURES AT INTRADAY HIGH OF $631.30, UP $8

[JNelson6563]

99. Zowie!!!

Time to start sewing these tablets into my clothes and get ready to flee. Those propping up the markets are gonna notice this one of these days soon....

Julie

[UpInArms]

91. June Gold @ $631.20 oz - May Silver @ $14.37 oz - May Copper @ $2.985 lb

11:50 AM ET 4/19/06 CORRECT: MAY SILVER CLIMBS TO HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE EARLY 1983

11:46 AM ET 4/19/06 JUNE GOLD UP $7.90 AT $631.20/OZ AFTER $632.70 HIGH

11:46 AM ET 4/19/06 MAY SILVER UP 58.5C, OR 4.3%, AT $14.37/OZ AFTER $14.49 HIGH

11:46 AM ET 4/19/06 MAY COPPER FALLS 1.4C TO $2.957/LB AFTER A RECORD $2.985

[UpInArms]

108. June Gold @ $636 oz - May Silver @ $14.52 oz

1:53 PM ET 4/19/06 GOLD FUTURES END AT HIGHEST FRONT-MONTH LEVEL SINCE 1980

1:53 PM ET 4/19/06 JUNE GOLD CLOSES AT $636/OZ, UP $12.70, OR 2%

1:53 PM ET 4/19/06 MAY SILVER UP 5.4%, ENDS AT $14.52 AFTER 23-YR INTRADAY HIGH

[Tace]

23. MOGAMBO GURU: Pure Economic Insanity

Richard Daughty, the angriest guy in economics -- World News Trust

Nothing much noteworthy happened last week, especially as pertains to the Federal Reserve, especially in comparison to something so dramatic that it tells me, beyond any lingering, vestigial shadow of a doubt, that the price of gold is, to coin a phrase, a-fixing to go a-booming and a-fixing to go a-zooming and we'll all be rich, rich, rich, cha cha cha. The reason for my frivolity is that on Fin24.co.za we read the headline "Chinese Eye Solid Gold." Of course, we immediately think, "Duh! Big deal! Who doesn't? Why are you wasting my time? Are you trying to start something with me by wasting my precious time, punk? Is that what you want? You want a piece of The Mogambo? Huh, punk? Is that what you want? Huh?"

But methinks that maybe we are a little too hasty, as right off the bat we learn, "Chinese banks are expanding the options they offer rich depositors in the face of greater competition from foreign banks." And what is this new option for the Chinese rich? "Next month," the article reveals, "the Bank of China plans to launch its newest product, dollar-denominated certificates linked to the price of gold."

Hmmm! Suddenly, my brain is going every which way! This is very, very interesting! On the one hand, this seems to prove that rich Chinese people are no more sophisticated than the rest of us clodhopper bozos out here who mess with dollars. I mean, these rich Chinese people are supposed to be so dull that they will line up to buy a certificate, denominated in dollars, a currency that is due to fall in purchasing power due to massive over-creation by the Federal Reserve over decades, that is also linked to gold? Huh? Why? Isn't this merely a bet on gold, which these foreign people will naturally price in their own currency anyway, which will ALSO trade up and down against the dollar in the currency exchange markets, negating the gain made in dollars using these certificates? What's the point? Or, much more excitingly, perhaps this is actually the Chinese equivalent of a new gold Exchange-Traded Fund! If so, wow! The impact of gold ETFs on the price of gold has been, so they say, significant in producing the stellar performance of gold. And if it is, and here is another one, a potentially enormous one, to add to the impact!

Naturally, I am wondering, "Are these Chinese gold certificates, paid for with dollars, going to be backed by physical gold, newly bought with the investor's dollars?" If so, like I said, wow! A Chinese gold ETF! Animated by glee, with the lithe, sinuous grace of a panther I dance the Forbidden Mogambo Dance of Love (FMDOL) in celebration that my bullish stance on gold is apparently vindicated!

more

http://worldnewstrust.org/modules/AMS/article.php?storyid=3172

[UpInArms]

27. Treasuries turn down after strong US March core CPI

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-19T124003Z_01_NYG000182_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-URGENT-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, April 19 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices fell on Wednesday after a stronger-than-expected U.S. core consumer prices reading for March, suggesting the Federal Reserve might continue raising interest rates beyond May.

U.S. March core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.3 percent, above economists' expectations for a rise of 0.2 percent month-on-month.

Benchmark 10-year notes <US10YT=RR> -- which respond closely to inflation expectations -- turned lower in price to trade down 2/32 for a yield of 5.00 percent, up from 4.96 percent just before the report and versus 4.99 percent late on Tuesday. Bond yields and prices move inversely.

So will the markets lose those 200 points they gained yesterday "because rates were not going to go up"? :mad:

[54anickel]

30. Heh, they're getting good at yanking the chain again. For a while there

all their verbal intervention wasn't having much effect on the markets. Must be a lot of uncertainty out there again - seems the markets are once again paying attention to the lip service.

[54anickel]

33. Yesterday's Pfenning

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=665

snip>

OK... Now for the trading yesterday... First of all, NY traders came in and took the ball and ran with it, running the dollar down to almost 1.23 vs. the euro... This was in anticipation that the Net Foreign Security Purchases (NFPS) would disappoint... But then the report printed and lo and behold, the report surprised big time on the upside! I mentioned the kids on the desk that the report's numbers, which came in at $86 billion, would wipe the euro's gains...

And it did, at first, then guess what? The dollar buying stopped, I then said... "There must be something in the numbers that have caused the dollar buying to stop"... So a review of the data was in order... But really... I didn't find much there except for the fact that Central Banks have reduced their participation... And oil-producing countries had picked up the slack... I don't see that as a "strong foundation" for investment in the country, but why nitpick?

So... The U.S. Current Account Deficit continues to be funded by capital inflows... But that news didn't keep currency traders "buying the story." Do you think traders are finally beginning to see what I've ranted about for some time now, and that is, the U.S. just keeps issuing debt, and issuing debt, and there has to be a limit as to what someone or the Central Bank is willing to accept after a while...

Today, we'll see the minutes of the last Fed meeting... After sifting through all the reminiscing about the "good 'ol days under Big Al," we most likely will see that Fed is going to have discussed the need for further rate hikes... Which would be dollar friendly... What we won't see is what I think is really going on, and that is a Fed that is very confused about what to do with an economy that seems to be going along da dum, da dum, but inflation that's going through the roof!

more...

[UpInArms]

42. Printing Press Hums: Fed adds temporary reserves via overnight repos

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-19T133602Z_01_N19256525_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, April 19 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday that it added temporary reserves to the banking system via overnight repurchase agreements.

The benchmark fed funds rate last traded at 4.750 percent, at the Fed's current target for the overnight lending rate on loans between banks.

Further details of the operations are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[Roland99]

53. Again? Three days in a row, eh?

[bain_sidhe]

112. Looks to me like EVERY DAY since

they stopped reporting the M3. Am I wrong? I may be misremembering, but I do read this thread every day, and it seems to me there's been a "overnight repurchase" every day since March 20th.

[Roland99]

119. Which is exactly what I was thinking was going to happen.

I think we know what's funding the faeries and the pollyannas.

[UpInArms]

68. FedSpew on Cue: Yappin' Yellen barks on command

Fed's Yellen to speak about economy on CNBC

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-19T144303Z_01_N19213152_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-YELLEN-CNBC.XML

CHICAGO, April 19 (Reuters) - San Francisco Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen will appear on the financial news television network CNBC at about 12 p.m. EDT (1600 GMT) on Wednesday, CNBC said.

Yellen is expected to talk about the economy and monetary policy a day after the Federal Open Market Committee issued minutes from its March 27-28 meeting. Yellen is a voting member of the FOMC in 2006.

[UpInArms]

35. pre-opening blather

09:15 ET Market is Closed
S&P futures vs fair value: -0.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.5. Sentiment continues to weaken heading into the opening bell as the futures market now suggests the S&P and Nasdaq will open in split fashion. Even though the March CPI report provides only one month of inflation data, potential signs of a firming trend argue that yesterday's enthusiasm on Fed policy may have been a bit premature.

09:00 ET Market is Closed
S&P futures vs fair value: +0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.0. Futures indications are off their best levels, as the bond market turns negative following the slightly higher than expected core CPI reading; the 10-yr note is now down 4 ticks, lifting the yield back to 5.00%. While the stage remains set for the Nasdaq to open on an upbeat note, supported by strong earnings and falling oil prices ahead of weekly inventories data (10:30 ET), the broader market is taking a cue from weakness in Treasuries and now suggests a relatively flat open.

08:33 ET Market is Closed
S&P futures vs fair value: +3.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.2. Futures trade holds relatively steady upon digesting CPI data, still indicating a higher open for the indices. Total CPI rose 0.4% in March, matching the consensus, while the closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) rose a more than expected 0.3% (consensus 0.2%) but continues to reflect contained inflation. The 10-yr note, though, which was up 7 ticks to yield 4.95% is now flat with a yield 4.98%.

08:00 ET Market is Closed
S&P futures vs fair value: +3.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.0. Futures versus fair value suggest the market may add to its biggest gain in nearly a year. The bulk of earnings reports since yesterday's close having either matched or surpassed analysts' expectations -- from IBM, TXN, and YHOO last night to PFE, KO, HON, JPM, UTX and GD today -- has been the biggest source of follow-through buying so far. Whether or not early gains can be sustained, though, could be determined by the March CPI report, which will offer more key inflation data at 8:30 ET.

[54anickel]

37. The new frontier for derivatives (This sounds scary)

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/a370fac6-cf24-11da-925d-0000779e2340.html

The race to capture a slice of the next frontier in the booming derivatives market is on, but banks and investors must overcome obstacles before credit default swaps of loans can take off as an asset class.

The explosive growth of the CDS market has changed the way the bond market operates. CDS let investors hedge exposure to bonds and have made it possible for investors to “short”, or bet on bond prices falling in value, as CDS prices tend to rise when a company’s credit quality deteriorates.

The banks also benefit from being able to transfer risk off their balance sheets by selling the risk of default to investors.

snip>

A key difference between regular default swaps and loan CDS in Europe is in the documentation. While CDS contracts reference all outstanding bonds of a company, the reference obligation of a LCDS contract is one specific loan.

In the European market the LCDS contract terminates if a company buys back, or calls, the loan. Investors who want to retain exposure to the name in the derivatives market will have to buy a new LCDS contract.

In the US, the LCDS contract is transferred to another loan by the same company if the loan is called, so the contract “sees through” a refinancing. This is not the case in Europe yet, but banks have agreed to start using US-like documentation by next year. The International Swaps and Derivatives Association has yet to come up with standard documents to aid the development of LCDS.

more...

[UpInArms]

40. 9:40 EST The Land of LaLa applauds for every spin thrown at it!

Dow 11,290.22 +21.45 (+0.19%)
Nasdaq 2,363.91 +7.77 (+0.33%)
S&P 500 1,307.96 +0.31 (+0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 5.016 +0.42 (+0.84%)

NYSE Volume 131,583,000
Nasdaq Volume 167,046,000

[54anickel]

43. U.S. step stirs doubt on global trade talks

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/04/18/business/wto.php

The Bush administration Tuesday nominated a low-profile official to become its chief trade negotiator at a time when the next high-level global talks are already in doubt - seeming to worsen chances that any deal would be reached this year.

Susan Schwab, one of three deputies at the office of the United States trade representative, was picked to take over the top job from Rob Portman, who is slated to become the White House budget director after only one year in the trade post. (Page 6)

President George W. Bush said Schwab, if confirmed by the Senate, would "use her experience to help complete the Doha round and create other new opportunities for American exporters."

But the European Union trade commissioner, Peter Mandelson, characterized the switch as ill-timed, suggesting that talks now risked losing steam.

"At this stage in the round, it would have been easier to manage with" Portman still in place, Mandelson said in a terse statement.

more...

[UpInArms]

62. Bush staff change upsets trade talks

http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/bush-staff-change-upsets-trade-talks/2006/04/19/1145344154588.html

PRESIDENT George Bush has abruptly changed his chief trade negotiator, casting more doubt on troubled world trade talks just weeks before a major deadline that is already in danger of slipping.

With his domestic economic agenda facing stiff resistance in Congress, President Bush tapped US Trade Representative Rob Portman, a well-liked former congressman and an old family friend, to serve as White House budget director.

President Bush elevated deputy trade representative Susan Schwab, who began her career in the late 1970s as an agricultural trade negotiator, to Mr Portman's post and urged the Senate to confirm them quickly.

European Union Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson and other top negotiators said Mr Portman's departure after less than a year would complicate difficult talks that have already run for more than 4½ years.

...more...

[54anickel]

73. I think the WTO has out lived its usefulness to Bush. He prefers the

bilateral trade agreements to begin with. The WTO provided him cover when he'd offer sanctions to win votes, knowing full well the WTO would axe them. I'm thinking the last thing he wants is an actual WTO agreement hashed out.

[UpInArms]

44. WH: Snotty Scotty RESIGNS!

9:44 AM ET 4/19/06 WHITE HOUSE SPOKESMAN SCOTT MCCLELLAN RESIGNS: REPORTS

[UpInArms]

47. White House spokesman Scott McClellan resigns: reports

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B9373D56C%2D6E5C%2D4B1C%2DB38F%2DFB9661B6BF60%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- White House spokesman Scott McClellan has resigned, according to news reports. McClellan was viewed as likely to depart after Joshua Bolten, President Bush's new chief of staff, signaled earlier this week that a further re-shuffling of the White House staff was in the offing.

Where will they find their new Comical Ali?

[54anickel]

49. Checkout the Oddsmakers take

http://www.gambling911.com/041806Enews.html

A number of top White House aids positions are in jeopardy as reported by Gambling911.com yesterday. Among those appearing to be on the chopping block are Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, Treasury Secretary John Snow and Press Spokesman Scotty McClellan. There are probably others.

In response to this article, Bodog.com (See Web Site Here) has released odds on whether McClellan will be replaced by April 30, 2006.

Odds make his a favorite at -140 to be ousted (bet $14 to win $10). McClellan staying on board is listed with even odds. Gambling911.com actually believes this to be easy money at -140 or $140 to win $100.

more...

[UpInArms]

55. barf bag alert: Snotty Scotty and his Master - in their own words

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B25F57FE5-9BF3-4626-878F-DDE0242C5B54%7D&symbol=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- White House spokesman Scott McClellan announced his resignation Wednesday morning.

"I have given it my all, sir, and I have given you my all sir, and I will continue to do so as we transition to a new press secretary," McClellan told President Bush just before the president boarded a helicopter to begin a trip to Alabama.

<snip>

"I thought handled his assignment with class, integrity," Bush said. "It's going to be hard to replace Scott, but nevertheless he made the decision and I accepted it. One of these days, he and I are going to be rocking in chairs in Texas and talking about the good old days."

The White House has yet to announce McClellan's replacement. News reports have identified a number of potential candidates, including Fox News' Tony Snow, former Pentagon spokeswoman Victoria Clark, and Dan Senor, who served as the spokesman for the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq.

Someone needs to break this to the Leaker-in-Chief: There will be no rocking chairs where you are going.

[54anickel]

48. WHAT?!??! Wonder if that article about Bush loosing his sway over

the press was a hint this was coming down. Wonder what new ass-hole we'll get.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x958524

[54anickel]

50. McClellan Out, Rove Leaves Policy Post

http://cbs4denver.com/nationalpolitics/politicsnational_story_109093320.html

(AP) WASHINGTON In another move in an ongoing shakeup of President Bush's staff, White House spokesman Scott McClellan also said he's resigning. Also, longtime confidant and adviser Karl Rove is giving up oversight of policy development to focus more on politics with the approach of the fall midterm elections, a senior administration official said Wednesday.

Appearing with Bush on the White House South Lawn just before the president boarded a helicopter at the start a trip to Alabama, McClellan, who has parried especially fiercefully with reporters on Iraq and on intelligence issues, told Bush: "I have given it my all sir and I have given you my all sir, and I will continue to do so as we transition to a new press secretary."

Bush said McClellan had "a challenging assignment."

"I thought he handled his assignment with class, integrity," the president said. "It's going to be hard to replace Scott, but nevertheless he made the decision and I accepted it. One of these days, he and I are going to be rocking in chairs in Texas and talking about the good old days."

snip>

Just over a year ago, Rove was promoted to deputy chief of staff in charge of most White House policy coordination. That new portfolio came on top of his title as senior adviser and role of chief policy aide to Bush.

But now, the job of deputy chief of staff for policy is being given to Joel Kaplan, now the White House's deputy budget director, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the president had not yet made the announcement.

[54anickel]

56. Looks like the markets didn't like that "surprise"....10:15

Dow 11,268.12 -0.65 (-0.01%)
Nasdaq 2,356.36 +0.22 (+0.01%)
S&P 500 1,305.60 -2.05 (-0.16%)
10-yr Bond 50.18 +0.44 (+0.88%)
30-yr Bond 51.08 +0.44 (+0.87%)
NYSE Volume 420,419,000
Nasdaq Volume 440,380,000

And the blatherer is at a loss for words? :shrug:

[UpInArms]

57. did you see the shortlist for replacements?

Fox News' Tony Snow, former Pentagon spokeswoman Victoria Clark, and Dan Senor, who served as the spokesman for the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq

Ugh.

[54anickel]

61. Stay tuned for...

[AnneD]

85. Can we...

vote them off the continent, huh,huh, pleeeeeze. I have my cellphone at the ready.:rofl:

[Roland99]

87. What? John Lovitz's beloved liar character from SNL isn't on there?

[UpInArms]

58. here's your sideorder of blather

10:00 ET Dow +23.93, Nasdaq +5.16, S&P +0.57
Major indices continue to hover just above the flat line as industry leadership remains mixed. Industrials is extending its 8.3% year-to-date performance following better than expected earnings from United Technologies (UTX 61.51 +2.61) and General Dynamics (GD 68.10 +1.65). Despite a rise in borrowing costs weighing on rate-sensitive bank stocks, the insurance group -- led by a strong report from Allstate (ALL 53.80 +1.85) -- has helped Financial trade slightly higher. Technology is also clinging to a slim gain as chip stocks get a lift after Texas Instruments (TXN 34.59 +0.59) beat estimates and boosted guidance while Internet stocks have climbed on the heels of Yahoo's (YHOO 33.45 +2.15) solid report. Grant Prideco (GRP 52.30 +2.88), a suggested holding in our Active Portfolio, posted another strong report but Energy is consolidating as oil prices pull back heading into weekly inventory data. Health Care has also lost ground as lighter than expected Q1 revenues and in-line guidance from Amgen (AMGN 69.14 -1.83) offset a solid report from Pfizer (PFE 24.90 -0.03). ..SOX +0.2%.

09:40 ET Dow +20.33, Nasdaq +7.89, S&P +0.26
Stocks open with little fanfare and struggle to extend yesterday's broad-based rally early on as investors weigh a troubling CPI report against otherwise strong earnings and falling oil prices. March core CPI was up a higher than expected 0.3% and, since nothing is more important than consumer inflation and incoming economic data remain the most important determining factors for Fed policy, today's inflation data has underpinned a sense of nervousness in the Treasury market and kept early stock market gains at a minimum.

[54anickel]

59. Thanks! n/t

[54anickel]

45. Blackouts a fluke now, but in 2010?

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/stories/041906dnbuselectricity.1234d358.html

snip>

Texas deregulated its electricity market in 2002. The government doesn't build power plants, and regulators no longer guarantee that power companies will get a return on their investments.

As power prices rise with demand, power companies will build more generators, or so the theory goes.

"People need to understand that we are in a market, and it's never not interesting," said Michelle Michot Foss, chief energy economist for the Center for Energy Economics at the University of Texas.

"The market is very healthy. This is a good place to be. People like investing in Texas," she said. "If we were in another place where it was pretty hard to get projects off the ground, the concerns would be justified, but not around here."

The flip side to a deregulated market is there's little incentive for power companies to build too much capacity, and finding the best balance can be rocky.

more...

[AnneD]

60. This was one of the most bone headed things ...

the legislature has done. We will have all the problems they did in Ca. Some things should be held in trust as they are for the common good and should not be subject to profit (healthcare, education, utilities, parks, natural resources).

[54anickel]

63. Damned Socialist! It's all about free markets, baby!!! They're still

trying to figure out how to charge you for the freakin' air you breath.

Once it's polluted enough it should be easy to sell canned air...they're workin' on it. :grr:

[54anickel]

54. GM to Post Sixth Loss as Wagoner Slashes Costs, Revamps Models

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aJMD._jDuKHU&refer=us

April 19 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp. is likely to report its sixth straight quarterly loss as Chief Executive Officer Rick Wagoner seeks to shore up finances at the world's largest automaker by closing plants and eliminating jobs.

GM tomorrow will announce a first-quarter loss of 48 cents a share, according to a report by JP Morgan Securities analyst Himanshu Patel, ranked by StarMine Corp. as among the most accurate on the company. A year earlier, GM had a loss of $839 million, or $1.48 a share, excluding what it calls special items.

Wagoner is hustling to recover from a $10.6 billion net loss in 2005 after Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. took away sales. Pension and health-care benefits are being reduced to help slash costs by $8 billion a year. He's relying on revamped models such as the Chevrolet Tahoe sport-utility vehicle after GM's share of the U.S. market slid to 26.2 percent last year, the lowest since 1925.

``Losses are slowing a bit, but it's very difficult for me to see any significant profitability for GM in less than four to five years,'' said Dan Genter, president of RNC Genter Capital Management in Los Angeles, whose $2 billion in assets include the automaker's bonds. ``There are too many legacy costs.''

snip>

Demand for new models such as the redesigned 2007 Cadillac Escalade is better than expected, said Greg Anderson, sales manager at Case de Cadillac in Sherman Oaks, California.

``They were selling as soon as they hit the ground,'' Anderson said.

The dealership sold 45 last month, and the average price has risen to about $66,000, from $55,000 for the old model...

more...

[saigon68]

79. Demand for 2007 Cadillac Escalade is better than expected

Glad some can afford these $60,000.00 Land Yachts

[UpInArms]

81. that's less than 4 hours pay for that Exxon CEO ... eom

[54anickel]

88. I think they are becoming a "status symbol" for the arrogant within

the wealthy crowd. sort of like driving around with a big "Fuck You!" emblazoned on the side.
Look at me, I'm rich, I'm guzzlin' more than my fair share, driving up prices (which doesn't bother me one bit). Don't mistake me for someone who gives a shit - I don't care, I don't have to cuz I'm rich - so Fuck You!
I only say that because I have an in-law that drives one of those beast and that's pretty much his attitude.

[AnneD]

96. Remember the once genteel days

when the expression 'vulgar display of wealth' meant something shameful. I went to school and had a best friend that was really wealthy. I never knew it until she invited me for a sleepover. It didn't mean much to me but it sure shocked my Mom. Fortunantly they were very nice and gracious and we remained friends until we relocate and lost contact. Read 'The Millionare Next Door' sometime. Those with real wealth don't flaunt it.

[saigon68]

100. I agree I know a husband and wife who are prescription drug

Sales representatives to Doctors.

They each have one. His is Black, hers is Red.

They are double income No kids, their attitude is, look at how smart we are (FUCK YOU) IS THEIR ATTITUDE

[RawMaterials]

105. I would bet

that their true net worth is negative

[UpInArms]

65. Most Americans Do Not Trust Bush on Iran

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/11612

(Angus Reid Global Scan) – Many adults in the United States no longer have confidence in their president to deal with a potential crisis, according to a poll by Bloomberg and the Los Angeles Times. 54 per cent of respondents say they do not trust George W. Bush to make the right decision about whether the country should go to war with Iran or not.

After being branded as part of an "axis of evil" by Bush in January 2002, Iran has contended that its nuclear program aims to produce energy, not weapons. 61 per cent of respondents in the U.S. believe the Islamic country will eventually get nuclear weapons.

<snip>

Polling Data

Generally speaking, do you trust George W. Bush to make the right decision about whether we should go to war with Iran, or not?

Do not trust him

54%

Trust him

42%

Don’t know

4%

...more...

[UpInArms]

66. Chips down, Bush prepares a Hail Mary bet

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/04/19/DDG9EIAGN61.DTL

excerpt:

He then does what every miserable, lunkheaded gambler does at this point: In a fit of alcoholic rage and demonic encouragement, he says, "Screw it" -- and digs into his pocket, pulls out his last remaining crumpled $1,000 bill and slaps it down on the table in one big final gesture meant to turn his fortunes around all at once, damn the wife at home and forget a decent meal and forget every ironclad rule of gambling because damn it the gods owe him and he's long overdue for a change in fortune. Yes. Right. Sure he is.

Sure enough, the lug loses his big Hail Mary bet. He is broke. He cannot believe it. He curses the table, curses the whore cards, swears at the dealer for not treating him better, slams the rest of his drink and his face contorts and his hands shake and he stumbles off into the night, railing against his lousy luck, the gods, all of humanity. Same ol' situation, happening all over Vegas. And, of course, Washington, D.C.

Now, here he is, sitting right next to all the other countries at the Big Table, representing America, it's little Dubya Bush, stewing in his own juices, his poll numbers hovering right near Nixon levels, mumbling to himself, smelling vaguely of sawdust and horse manure and dead Social Security overhaul plans.

He is pockmarked by scandal, buffeted by storms of disapproval and infighting and nascent impeachment. He authorized the leak of classified security information merely to smear an Iraq war critic, he lied about WMD and lied about Saddam and lied about making the United States safer and lied about, well, just about everything, on top of launching the worst and most violent and most expensive, unwinnable war since Vietnam.

His pile of betting capital is down to a tiny lump, nothing like back when he had the table rigged and all the pit bosses worked for him and the pile was as big as a roomful of Texas cow pies. But now, fortune is frowning. In fact, fortune is white-hot furious at being so viciously molested, spit upon, raped lo these many years. The truth is coming out: Bush has now lost far, far more bets than he ever won.

...more...

[54anickel]

75. Nice article. Noticed a poll buried at that site - should Bush resign ...

59% Yes. Hell, that's better than a mandate by Bush's standards!

[AnneD]

92. Excellent article

good psych profile. My only hope is that folk have some spine to stop him. Maybe Iran will back down and China and Russia will take Bush to the wood shed so to speak. I think people are finally realizing how crazy Bush is. If we don't go to war with Iran before the elections and get a DEM majority to instigate investigations (which will keep him occupied), we might steer the Titanic Ship of State away from the icebergs. But be warned, these folks are as dangerous as a cornered rattler. I am glad Hirsch leaked the war plans and glad the retired generals spoke out. Folks can't say they were deceived THIS time. If Bush is stupid enough to STILL bomb Iran, I think he should be turned over to the Hague as a war criminal. Now there's a legacy for you!

[UpInArms]

67. Pension rules may cut U.S. firms' net worth-study

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-19T143107Z_01_N19387752_RTRIDST_0_ACCOUNTING-PENSIONS-STUDY.XML

NEW YORK, April 19 (Reuters) - The net worth of Fortune 1000 companies could shrink by 10 percent under a proposed pension accounting rule, with big manufacturers facing the greatest loss in value, a new study shows.

The Financial Accounting Standards Board last month laid out a plan to bring full disclosure of the current funding status of pension and other retirement benefit obligations onto corporate balance sheets by the end of this year.

A study released Wednesday from consulting firm Watson Wyatt and Co. (WW.N: Quote, Profile, Research) predicts the proposed changes would result in a spike in liabilities on balance sheets and may lop 10 percent off total shareholders' equity of Fortune 1000 firms.

Shareholders' equity, the difference between a company's total assets and liabilities, is viewed as a representation of a company's net worth.

The median decrease for individual firms would be 4.8 percent, the study found.

"Emotionally it can be rather significant to see the net value of your company eliminated or cut significantly," said Alan Glickstein, national practice leader for policies and processes in the retirement practice at Watson Wyatt.

...more...

[AnneD]

98. Management is so screwed up.....

as long as they view their labour force as liability instead of an asset. The workers, not the management are the biggest asset a company has. A good manager can tweek a company into higher profits, but it is the workers that are the real asset and they deserve something for their efforts. That little bit of money does not harm the company profits nearly as much as those CEO perks and beenies they keep giving away.

[54anickel]

76. America meets the new superpower

The visit of President Hu to Washington underlines the inevitable loss of America's economic supremacy to China

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/article358568.ece


When President Hu Jintao of China shakes hands with President George Bush in Washington tomorrow and gives one of his fixed grins for photographers, it will not be just another meeting between the leader of a large developing country and the chief executive of the richest nation on earth.

China is rising fast and is expected to eclipse the United States economically in the future - its gross domestic product is tipped to overtake that of America by 2045.

While Mr Bush has only given Mr Hu an hour of his time for a state lunch, the global balance of power is changing and in future meetings, the Chinese will set the timetable.

The rise of China is posing awkward questions for the US, along with the realisation that its days as the world's economic superpower are numbered.

Some analysts see America entering a period of "managed decline" not unlike that which Britain has experienced since the end of the Second World War and the end of empire.

more...

[54anickel]

93. China may become India's top trade partner

http://feeds.bignewsnetwork.com/?sid=8bcd945efd3ca657

China may replace the United States in a few years as India's No. 1 trading partner, with trade hitting $100 billion, a top Indian businessman says.

Saroj Kumar Poddar, president of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, said Monday in Beijing that tremendous potentials exist regarding bilateral trade, China Daily reported.

Sino-Indo trade last year hit a record of $18.7 billion, jumping 38 percent year-on-year.

If growth is sustained, bilateral trade soon could overtake Indo-U.S. trade, hovering around $30 billion, said Poddar, who is leading the delegation in China this week.

more...

[54anickel]

95. IMF Increases 2006 Economic Growth Forecast for Asia to 7.9%

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=ar5Zp08LzqJ0&refer=asia

April 19 (Bloomberg) -- The International Monetary Fund raised its 2006 growth forecast for Asia excluding Japan because of faster- than-expected expansion in China and India.

The IMF predicts Asian economies excluding Japan will expand 7.9 percent this year, 1 percentage point higher than its Sept. 21 forecast of 6.9 percent. It raised its 2006 growth forecast for China to 9.5 percent from 8.2 percent previously and for India to 7.3 percent from 6.3 percent.

``With global economic conditions favorable, the growth momentum is expected to continue in 2006,'' the Washington-based IMF said in its semi-annual World Economic Outlook report released today. ``Growth in both China and India has continued to surprise.''

Increased worldwide demand for mobile phones, digital cameras and flat-screen televisions made by companies such as Samsung Electronics Co. is spurring expansion in Asian technology exports in China, South Korea and other nations. India's economy averaged 8 percent annual growth the past three years, making it the second- fastest growing major economy after China.

``Growth in China remains very strong, with investment growth running at a high rate and net exports increasing significantly,'' the IMF said. ``In India, growth remains rapid, with strong momentum in the manufacturing and services sectors.''

more...

[54anickel]

78. Oil and Bonds (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20060418-tue.html#anchor0

snip>

To the extent the normalization at the short end of the global yield curve is finally accompanied by normalization at the long end, a decisive turn in the global liquidity cycle could well be in the offing. Rising oil prices could compound the problem. The oil-related hit to discretionary incomes of oil-consuming nations is the functional equivalent of an added withdrawal of excess liquidity in a world that is now on the other side of the monetary policy cycle. This underscores what I believe could well be the thorniest aspect of the outcome -- the potential nonlinearities of the interplay between a turn in the liquidity cycle and rising oil prices.

This is where macro is at its weakest. We are trained in the art of partial analysis. We have rules of thumb that are helpful in gauging the impacts of fluctuations in oil prices. We have different models that attempt to assess the impacts of swings in interest rates. But we lack a unifying “general equilibrium” framework that pulls it all together. Sure, Nobel Prizes have been awarded to brilliant theoreticians, such as Stanford’s Kenneth Arrow, for making important progress in deepening our understanding of the conceptual context of this problem. Large-scale econometric models have also been designed to deal with so-called spillover effects from one sector to another -- in some rarer cases, from one country to another. But these tools just don’t cut it in today’s Brave New World. Liquidity cycles and asset bubbles have gone to excess, while oil prices are in uncharted territory. Meanwhile, the globalization of trade and capital flows has redefined the cross-border linkages that will ultimately shape the outcome. Sadly, we are better equipped to deal with the macro of yesteryear.

I am coming around to the view that nonlinear “threshold effects” -- the macro equivalent of the tipping point -- will probably play an important role in unmasking the endgame in today’s liquidity-driven unbalanced world. The breaking point in this case will probably be determined by a combination of economic and psychological factors. That’s because the sustainability of America’s current account deficit -- by far, the most serious imbalance in today’s unbalanced world -- is critically dependent on the confidence that foreign investors place in dollar-denominated assets. If that confidence were to falter for any reason, the subsequent venting of the pressures stemming from the massive US external deficit may be swift and severe -- with important spillover effects on other markets and wealth-dependent economies around the world.

I honestly don’t know if the bond market and oil prices are now at thresholds that could spark such pyrotechnics. I suspect it could take something more in the 5.5% to 6% range for yields on long Treasuries to qualify as a full-blown tipping point. Even so, a 5% bond yield and $70 oil are much closer to that possibility than has been the case in a long time. Moreover, it’s important to note that this confluence of forces is not occurring in isolation -- it is playing out in the increasingly ominous context of a post-US-housing bubble shakeout and an increase in protectionist pressures.

Courtesy of a more-than-ample cushion of excess liquidity, an unbalanced global economy has endured an extraordinary array of destabilizing developments in recent years. This had led to excesses in many segments of world financial markets -- especially in some of the riskiest markets, such as emerging-market debt and equities. Investors are now taking liquidity-induced resilience in the global economy for granted. Maybe Iceland was the canary in the coal mine after all.

more...

[UpInArms]

82. 11:27 EST numbers and blather

Dow 11,266.92 -1.85 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,357.22 +1.08 (+0.05%)
S&P 500 1,307.12 -0.53 (-0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 5.030 +0.56 (+1.13%)

NYSE Volume 890,371,000
Nasdaq Volume 826,367,000

11:00 ET
Dow -8.12, Nasdaq -1.11, S&P -1.97
Indices spike to session lows following bearish weekly inventories data but not nearly enough to make a significant change in the standings. At the bottom of the hour, oil prices turned positive following an unexpected draw down in crude inventories and larger than anticipated declines in gas supplies and distillates. However, leadership from the Energy sector amid oil's modest rebound has provided a floor of support for stocks near the unchanged mark. The May crude contract, which expires tomorrow, is down slightly at $71.30 per barrel but the June contract is up $0.11 at $73.25 per barrel. ..OSX +1.2%.
10:30 ET
Dow -9.63, Nasdaq -1.07, S&P -3.11
Market slips into the red, trading in sympathy with further deterioration in the Treasury market. Bonds, which showed a muted response to the FOMC mintues yesterday have given way to selling pressure at the first hint of inflation persisting. The yield on the 10-yr note (-11/32) is now back above the 5.0% level at 5.03%, as the largest increase in core prices since last March raises the chance of two more rate hikes. Fed Funds futures, which priced in a 25% chance yesterday after the FOMC minutes suggested that the end of Fed tightening was likely to be near, are back to pricing in a more than 40% chance of a second rate hike following the May 10 meeting.

[54anickel]

84. New jobs will go to India, Bush warns US

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2235233

Washington, April 19: President George W Bush has warned the country's schoolchildren that if they did not have the skills needed to compete with their counterparts from India and China, new jobs would go to those countries.

The President was addressing a magnet school in Rockville, Maryland, on Tuesday, stressing among other things, the criticality of such subjects as Mathematics and Science.

"If you're living in Midland, Texas, or living in Montgomery County, Maryland, it's important to understand, if children don't have those skill sets needed to compete with a child from India or a child from China, the new jobs will be going there," Bush told the students.

"And so, in order to make sure we remain the leader of the world, we have got to continue our focus in education on high standards, accountability, and a new focus and intense focus on math and science, just like as what's happening in this school," he said.

http://www.expressindia.com/fullstory.php?newsid=66321

[trogdor]

89. Enough with the skill sets already.

What he really means is, people with bachelor's degrees who will work for $12,000 a year are rare in the United States.

[ramapo]

109. This is crap

Plenty of Americans have had the skill set only to find the job pulled out from under them in favor of cheap second & third world labor.

I contend that the good job opportunities are simply not there for many with advanced degrees, math, science or otherwise. What I see is that the advanced degree is needed as an entry point to what once required a high school education. Meanwhile, Bush and our Congress feeds the corporate profiteers with ever higher H1B visa limits.

[UpInArms]

90. 12:01 EST Nooner and tuner

Dow 11,285.41 +16.64 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,361.20 +5.06 (+0.21%)
S&P 500 1,308.31 +0.66 (+0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 5.049 +0.75 (+1.51%)

NYSE Volume 1,071,708,000
Nasdaq Volume 962,772,000

What would you do if I sang out of tune,
Would you stand up and walk out on me?
Lend me your ears and I'll sing you a song
And I'll try not to sing out of key.

Oh, I get by with a little help from my friends
Mm, I get high with a little help from my friends
Mm, gonna try with a little help from my friends

What do I do when my love is away
(Does it worry you to be alone?)
How do I feel by the end of the day,
(Are you sad because you're on your own?)

No, I get by with a little help from my friends
Mm, I get high with a little help from my friends
Mm, gonna try with a little help from my friends

Do you need anybody
I need somebody to love
Could it be anybody
I want somebody to love.

Would you believe in a love at first sight
Yes, I'm certain that it happens all the time
What do you see when you turn out the light
I can't tell you but I know it's mine,

Oh, I get by with a little help from my friends
Mm, I get high with a little help from my friends
Mm, gonna try with a little help from my friends

Do you need anybody
I just need someone to love
Could it be anybody
I want somebody to love.

Oh, I get by with a little help from my friends
with a little help from my friends.

Joe Cocker

[Ghost Dog]

106. Lennon/McCartney, actually.

But, yeah, old Joe's cover is indeed superior.

...And hey, Wow, those charts (above) today... :hi: ...lurkin'

[UpInArms]

107. Welcome to DU and the SMW, Ghost Dog!

Glad to have you here and feel free to join in anytime :hi:

[AnneD]

113. Ya'll come back now

cha hear:hi:

[ozymandius]

103. 1:15 - dipping into the red

Dow 11,268.14 -0.63 (-0.01%)
Nasdaq 2,359.45 +3.31 (+0.14%)
S&P 500 1,306.87 -0.78 (-0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 50.28 +0.54 (+1.09%)
NYSE Volume 1,376,847,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,223,710,000

[Name removed]

104. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[ozymandius]

114. What was that?

Who was bad on the Stock Thread?

[RawMaterials]

117. sometimes i miss the deleted message

and it just kills me to know what was so bad it got removed. especially in the smw

[54anickel]

121. Wasn't me....n/t

[ozymandius]

115. Today's SMW was brought to you by the word: Resistance.

3:20
Dow 11,284.37 +15.60 (+0.14%)
Nasdaq 2,368.49 +12.35 (+0.52%)
S&P 500 1,309.73 +2.08 (+0.16%)
10-Yr Bond 50.28 +0.54 (+1.09%)
NYSE Volume 2,003,245,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,726,644,000

3:00 pm : Market continues to fluctuate around the unchanged mark as investors find few catalysts late in the day to get Tuesday's rally back on track. The Russell 2000, however, continues to do what it has done all for six straight years -- outperform its three larger indices. Since small cap stocks are less sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices, which have recently closed at another new record high near $72 per barrel, and have less currency exposure than larger-cap names, the small cap index is up more than 15% this year alone including today's 0.9% gain. That compares to year-to-date gains of 5.3%, 4.9% and 7.2% for the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq, respectively. DJ30 +11.56 NASDAQ +8.25 R2K +0.9% SP500 +1.63 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1258/1727/1.61 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1416/1813/1.33 bln

[Roland99]

118. Wrap it up and put a bow on it!

DJIA 11,278.80 +10.00
Nasdaq 2,370.88 +14.74
S&P 500 1,309.93 +2.28
Russell 2000 778.42 +8.61
30 Yr Bond 5.13 +0.07
10 Yr Bond 5.03 +0.05

[ozymandius]

120. Here's the blather.

4:20 pm : The market closed higher for a second straight day, showing resilience in the face of renewed inflation fears, rising bond yields and record oil prices, as strong earnings across the board ultimately sidelined the bears. Before 8:00 ET, all signs pointed to the market adding to its biggest gain in nearly a year, as the bulk of earnings reports since yesterday's close either matched or surpassed Wall Street's forecasts. In fact, of the 12 Dow components reporting this week, the five blue chips posting results this morning all beat expectations.

Be that as it may, investors struggled throughout the session to find a silver lining, especially after today's higher than expected increase in core CPI countered yesterday's tame inflation read at the wholesale level. March core CPI rose 0.3% -- the largest increase in core prices since last March, inching the year/year increase in core CPI to 2.1% from 2.0%. Since nothing is more important than consumer inflation and incoming economic data remain the most important determining factors for Fed policy, Wednesday's inflation data rekindled the chance of two more rate hikes, underpinning a sense of nervousness in both the stock and bond market.

Even though the CPI report provided only one month of data, as alluded to by midday comments from San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen, potential signs of a firming trend argued that yesterday's enthusiasm on Fed policy may have been a bit premature. When it was all said and done, though, the market's ability to avoid a logical pullback again reflected more underlying bullishness than we anticipated, especially as oil prices closed above $72 per barrel for the first time ever and the yield on the 10-yr note climbed back above 5.00% -- concerns that underscore our Neutral market view.

On the earnings front, United Technologies (UTX 62.80 +3.90) was the standout, beating estimates by three cents and boosting its FY06 outlook, which plays into our Overweight rating on Industrials. The sector also got a lift from General Dynamics' (GD 69.41 +2.96) solid report, which helped to offset consolidation in Honeywell (HON 43.53 -0.63) which hit a 52-week high yesterday ahead of its strong report. Providing even more market support was Energy, which was up 1.5% as oil prices gained more than 1.0% to $72.17 per barrel following an unexpected draw down in weekly crude inventories. Another strong earnings report from Grant Prideco (GRP 54.12 +4.70) -- a suggested holding in our Active Portfolio, was another source of sector support as it helped the Oil & Gas Equipment group extend its 26% year-to-date advance and underscored our Overweight rating on Energy.

Internet Software & Services (+3.4%) -- the day's third best performing industry group after Yahoo! (YHOO 33.54 +2.24) reported strong results -- helped the Nasdaq outpace its blue chip counterparts but only enough to help the Tech sector finish relatively flat on the day. Also helping offset weakness in storage and hardware was strength in semiconductor. The latter group got a lift after Texas Instruments (TXN 34.45 +0.45) beat estimates and boosted guidance coupled with late-day gains in Intel (INTC 19.56 +0.17) ahead of its earnings.

The brokerage group got a boost after Jefferies (JEF 68.86 +5.27) posted a 59% jump in profits and E*Trade Financial (ET 26.86 +0.94) caught a bid ahead of its earnings report. A rebound in Multi-line Insurance, which had been the tenth worst performing S&P industry group in 2006 before Allstate's (ALL 54.82 +2.87) upbeat outlook, also helped Financial post a modest gain and offset weakness in rate-sensitive bank stocks. Treasuries, which showed a muted response to the FOMC minutes yesterday, gave way to selling pressure at the first hint of inflation persisting. The yield on the 10-yr note (-10/32) closed at 5.02%.

Health Care, however, was the biggest drag on the market as lighter than expected Q1 revenues from Amgen (AMGN 68.30 -2.67) and Pfizer (PFE 24.82 -0.11) offset a solid report from Gilead Sciences (GILD 65.13 +3.29).BTK +0.9% DJ30 +10.00 DJTA +0.5% DJUA +0.3% DOT +0.8% NASDAQ +14.74 NQ100 +0.4% R2K +1.1% SOX +1.8% SP400 +1.0% SP500 +2.28 XOI +0.9% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1166/1800/2.13 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1324/1956/1.75 bln

[BluePatriot]

122. Hello and thanks

Just wanted to say hello and thanks for the daily stock market thread...it's great to keep up with economic news here and get a non-sugar-coated perspective. :hi: