STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 21 April

[ozymandius]

Friday April 21, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 1004 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1947 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1647 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1608
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 20, 2006

Dow... 11,342.89 +64.12 (+0.57%)
Nasdaq... 2,362.55 -8.33 (-0.35%)
S&P 500... 1,311.46 +1.53 (+0.12%)
Gold future... 623.10 -12.90 (-2.07%)
30-Year Bond 5.14% +0.01 (+0.16%)
10-Yr Bond... 5.04% +0.01 (+0.22%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Frank Barbera

END OF CYCLE: COLLISION COURSE

Looking back at the history of Fed tightening cycles there is one giant and ever-recurring event —- the late-stage “Crack-Up Boom”. Put another way, it seems that on this occasion—as in others in the past—history has at least one important lesson to recount. Namely that Fed tightening cycles normally do not end with a “whimper”. Instead, more often than not, they end with a “bang”. So we find that 2006 could potentially be a case of history repeating itself.

-cut-

Looking at the current cycle we find that since early 2004 the Fed has been hiking rates on the Fed Funds from a low of 1% to the current rate of 4.75%. Most economists now anticipate a further move to 5% in May and possibly even 5.25% in June. Importantly, expectations have been running high since last December that the “Fed” is almost done with its long series of rate hikes. Yet as can be seen in the table below in the 11 prior “tightening cycles” seen since 1946, 9 out of 11 times the U.S. economy has ended up in recession and in a “hard landing”. This suggests, once again, this marked tendency on behalf of the Fed to “overdo it with too many hikes”. What’s more, in the eight instances since 1929 when the Fed has raised interest rates by more than 175 basis points, the stock market—as measured by the S&P 500—was down 12 months later, 6 out of 8 times with the average loss, a decline measuring 7.50%.

-cut-

Where Are We Today?

With this past history in mind, it would seem like a good idea to recall several “facts” about the current cycle. To begin with, we have now seen 15 “¼” point hikes—the most of any prior cycle. Those hikes already embody an increase in the overnight rate of 375 basis points (and counting). What’s more, the immediate path head seems strewn with potential stumbling blocks as the markets appear to be hoping—as evidenced by Tuesday's nearly 200-point Dow advance—that an end to Fed tightening is finally at hand. However, it is equally clear for recent Fed meetings that the Reserve Board is keenly focused on Labor Market conditions as perhaps the most important driver in its decision-making process in the weeks and months ahead. From an economic point of view, this is highly understandable as Labor Input Costs have roughly 7 times the impact on total business costs as commodity prices, which are relatively small by comparison—today’s high prices non-withstanding.

-cut-

In my view, judging by the stock market's nearly 200-point advance on Tuesday—in hopes of an end to Fed tightening—and the Gold market's nearly $45 dollar equivalent run, odds of a big disappointment could be at hand if upcoming labor market reports head into a period of seasonal and statistical strength. For the average investor, where the latter phases of the Fed cycle tend to end with financial “events”, the current time would seem to be a good time to be “dialing down the risk” and raising some cash.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Crude Oil Prices Hover Near $73 a Barrel

SINGAPORE - Oil prices touched a new record above $73 a barrel Friday amid concern about Iran's nuclear ambitions and declining U.S. gasoline stocks, but then fell back as traders took profits.

Analysts say oil prices are likely to climb higher in the weeks ahead as worries grow about how international pressure on Iran, OPEC's No. 2 oil producer, will affect its crude output. Rebel disruptions of oil production in Nigeria also pose a risk to world supplies.

Traders also fretted about the possibility of inadequate gasoline supply in the summer, after weekly U.S. government data showed a drop in domestic gasoline stocks.

"I'm inclined to think it's not reached a peak yet," said Tobin Gorey, commodity strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. "We're still faced with a tight supply-demand equation against the backdrop of strong economic growth, and there's still more money to come into the market."

more

It's the bloody middle men who are screwing us. Also remember that the NYMEX and the London Oil Bourse are ownded by American oil companies.

[UpInArms]

15. Americans commute longer, farther than ever

http://channels.netscape.com/news/story.jsp?floc=ne-national-more&idq=/ff/story/0002%2F20060420%2F1041715633.htm&sc=rontz

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Dave Givens drives 370 miles to work and back every day and considers his seven-hour commute the best answer to balancing his work with his personal life.

The winner of a nationwide contest to find the commuter with the longest trek, Givens is one of millions of people who are commuting longer and farther than ever before.

Studies show Americans spend more time than ever commuting and for a growing number, getting to work takes more than an hour. In the most recent Census Bureau study, 2.8 million people have so-called extreme commutes, topping 90 minutes.

Givens, a 46-year-old electrical engineer, has an extreme commute between home in Mariposa, California, and his job in San Jose. He leaves home before dawn and returns after dark.

His trip landed him first place among almost 3,000 entries in the search for America's longest commute, sponsored by automotive services provider Midas Inc. and announced last week. But as harrowing or tedious as Givens' trip may sound, he says it's the way to keep the home and job he loves.

...more...

[UpInArms]

24. Crude holds above $73 on Iran concerns - @ $73.20 bbl

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B2CE232B9-93CD-4568-BA70-24F424FDD934%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures edged lower Friday in a continued pullback from the record levels struck this week, though worries about Iran and supplies of motor gasoline kept the price above $73 a barrel.

Crude for June delivery was down 49 cents at $73.20 in electronic trading on its first day as front-month contract. The contract climbed to as high as $74.50 a barrel on Thursday.

Traders are keeping an eye on developments in Iran, which has less than a week to comply with the United Nations Security Council's order to stop its nuclear-enrichment activities. The U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Association, will present the Security Council with an assessment of Iran's nuclear activities next week.

Western governments are seeking trade sanctions against Iran to pressure it to cease research, fearing it's planning to develop nuclear weapons. Iran has insisted its program is aimed solely at generating power for civilian use.

<snip>

Gasoline futures also edged lower, last trading down 3.5 cents at $2.18 a gallon. The contract struck a record at $2.25 a gallon on Wednesday after government data showed inventories fell 5.4 million barrels in the latest week, a seventh straight week of declining supplies.

...more...

[AnneD]

34. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: and all you lurkers. And to all you Texans...Happy San Jacinto Day. Today is the anniversary of the Battle of San Jacinto, when Sam Houston caught General Santa Ana with his pants down.....literally. Seem he was enjoying the company of a young intern etc, etc, etc. I think that now, 170 years later, that the border was set at the Rio Grande seems to be a moot point. All I really want is the flag that flew at the Alamo, but that is just me.

Well, Hu visit is going as well as can be expected, considering our Prez. I here Hu will be going to Saudi Arabia next to talk oil-and laugh a Bush I am sure. As someone wryly observed (wish I could give credit), the Saudies are not giving up on America, they are just taking a second wife. Why do I have a feeling that we will soon be wife #2? All of Bush's smooching and hand holding is for naught.


Happy hunting and watch out for the bears......

[UpInArms]

46. June Crude @ $73.25 bbl - May NatGas @ $7.87 mln btus

10:11 AM ET 4/21/06 JUNE CRUDE FALLS 44C TO $73.25/BRL IN EARLY NY TRADING

10:11 AM ET 4/21/06 MAY NATURAL GAS FALLS 19.4C, OR 2.4%, TO $7.87/MLN BTUS

If it "fell" 44C - then it was $73.69

[54anickel]

48. Iran's Ahmadinejad wants dual pricing scheme for oil

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060421/wl_mideast_afp/iranpoliticsenergyoilopec_060421082116;_ylt=AnqHq7rgXquzV2oxvlcVTBumOrgF;_ylu=X3oDMTA5aHJvMDdwBHNlYwN5bmNhdA--

TEHRAN, Iran (AFP) - Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad repeated his view that only rich countries should pay the "real price" of crude oil and that poorer nations should get it more cheaply.

"We should adopt a formula and schedule to prevent the increase in oil prices from harming the weaker countries who do not have oil," he told reporters on the sidelines of an oil industry exhibition in Tehran.

"They should not be harmed, although industrial countries who have hundreds of billion of dollars should pay the real price of oil," he explained, adding that the Iranian oil and foreign ministries were studying the issue.

The proposal was first mentioned by Ahmadinejad on Wednesday, when he said OPEC should set aside a quota "for poor consumers with better prices".

more...

[54anickel]

49. The Battle Over the Blame for Gas Prices

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/20/AR2006042000594.html

snip>

Oil prices are soaring, with the price of crude at more than $70 a barrel on world markets and 37 percent higher than a year ago. That works out to more than $1.7o a gallon, more than half the cost of a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline.

The next biggest chunk of the cost of a gallon of gasoline is the cost of refining, which is now about twice the average levels over the past five years. And that has sparked controversy over whether oil refiners have been gouging consumers by holding back on expanding capacity to gain more power over prices.

The oil companies deny those allegations, but what's not in dispute is what's happening at the gasoline pumps.

"What's going on is just a continued reflection of the worsening supply-and-demand balance, and when you get into a tight market, small changes can cause big price movements," said Borenstein, explaining the rising price of crude oil.

He added that the reasons for fatter refining margins were not so clear. "This is the time of year when that number always goes up, but it has gone up more than usual," Borenstein said. "What we're seeing is that refineries are making huge profits. We have not been building refineries, demand continues to grow, and supply is not keeping up with it."

more...

[UpInArms]

63. Crude prices head higher in late morning dealings - to $73.99 bbl

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B2820BFC1%2DD62E%2D41A3%2DB35F%2D65D98ED70A03%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- June crude climbed 30 cents to $73.99 per barrel, reversing from an earlier decline to a low of $73.05. "Fear continues to grow with all the many risks to production around the globe," said Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Alaron Trading. The June crude contract reached a record of $74.50 on Thursday, but the front-month record intraday level stands at $72.40, with the May contract reached on Wednesday. May unleaded gasoline was down 1.48 cents at $2.20 a gallon, though the per-gallon price for regular unleaded was last at $2.855, up 29% from a year ago, according to AAA's Daily Fuel Gauge Report.

Could they have been more obfuscating with their blurb?

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

69. New Record For Crude - $74.40 - 12 Noon EST nt

[UpInArms]

71. Will the markets roar or shriek in horror? ...... n/t

[UpInArms]

85. Crude futures prices tap $75 for first time ever in NY

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BC2EB9E43%2DDCA1%2D4A84%2DA22C%2D7CCC859F6B3C%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures climbed to a high of $75 per barrel Friday for the first time ever for a front-month contract on concerns about tensions surrounding Iran's nuclear activities, violence in Nigeria, and tight U.S. supplies of unleaded gasoline. June crude was last up $1.26, or 1.7%, at $74.95 per barrel. "We often see this sort of short covering in a record-setting bull market ahead of a weekend, since nobody is sure where we may be Monday," said trader Kevin Kerr, who is also editor of MarketWatch's Global Resources Trader.

[UpInArms]

91. June Crude closes @ $75.20 bbl - May Unleaded Gas @ $2.245 gal

2:19 PM ET 4/21/06 JUNE CRUDE UP $1.51 AT $75.20/BRL IN LAST FEW MIN OF TRADE

2:19 PM ET 4/21/06 MAY UNLEADED GAS UP 1.4% AT $2.245/GAL AFTER A CONTRACT HIGH

[ozymandius]

3. Mortgage Rates Highest in Nearly 4 Yrs.

WASHINGTON - Rates on 30-year mortgages marched up this week to their highest point in nearly four years, a factor that is taking some oomph out of the housing market.

Freddie Mac, the mortgage company, reported Thursday that for the week ending April 20, rates on 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.53 percent, up from 6.49 percent last week.

This week's rate was the highest since the week ending July 12, 2002, when 30-year mortgage rates stood at 6.54 percent.

-cut-

Rising mortgages rates are crimping home sales and residential construction.

more

[stevebreeze]

10. maybe more importantly debt is at an all time high

and a lot of that debt is in adjustable rate mortgages due to balloon.

[luckyleftyme2]

18. THE OLE SHELL GAME

the right has used the same agenda for years;lower interest rates at start of term,cut taxes for wealthy;then start raising interest rates to build a false economy to cover short fall in spending!
the conservative agenda is to raise the deficit;they've done it for years and blamed the left!

[RawMaterials]

28. Then they try to blame the

coming recession on the next administration. the problem with that is most democrats seam to figure out the whole budget thing and actually bring prosperity to most americans.

[ozymandius]

4. Seismic shift looming in trading

The launch this week of a stock market by the International Securities Exchange (NYSE:ISE - news), the largest US options exchange, is the latest example of the repositioning taking place across Wall Street as the US equity and derivatives trading landscape gets set for a seismic shift.

The ISE Stock Exchange has strong backing. Banks such as Bear Stearns (NYSE:BSC - news), JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB - news), and trading firms including Citadel, one of the world's largest hedge funds, between them hold a 49 per cent stake.

Analysts said the move was aimed at siphoning volume away from the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, the two largest US exchanges. It also gives sell-side firms a chance to ensure they have a say in the development of the market and possibly to expand the total volume of trading.

more

[54anickel]

38. OH boy, I'm not liking the sounds of some of that article. Certainly hope

another Diebold isn't involved in the programming.

snip>

The most controversial aspect of Reg NMS is the "trade-through rule," which requires brokers, investment managers and exchanges to show they have put all their trading orders to the exchange displaying the best price at the time an order is generated.

Because only electronic trading systems can capture data required to demonstrate compliance, Reg NMS is expected to sharply increase electronic trading, perhaps bringing it close to 100 per cent. This imperils the existence of traditional floor trading on the NYSE. That rule has forced investment banks, fund managers and exchanges to examine their business models and decide how they will need to adapt.

snip>

The ISE's foray into equities has at its heart a belief that trading accomplished using mathematics is the way of the future. Algorithmic trading has attracted huge interest as a means for traders to conduct business more efficiently. Mr Tabb thinks that the volume of algorithmic trading could increase by a third over the next year.

[ozymandius]

57. Here's a definition of algorithmic trading.

A trading system that utilizes very advanced mathematical models for making transaction decisions in the financial markets. The strict rules built into the model attempt to determine the optimal time for an order to be placed that will cause the least amount of impact on a stock's price. Large blocks of shares are usually purchased by dividing the large share block into smaller lots and allowing the complex algorithms to decide when the smaller blocks are to be purchased.

The use of algorithmic trading is most commonly used by large institutional investors due to the large amount of shares they purchase everyday. Complex algorithms allow these investors to obtain the best possible price without significantly affecting the stock's price and increasing purchasing costs.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/algorithmictrading.asp

So does this mean that huge volumes of a stock can be dumped without raising any alarms?

[54anickel]

60. Since it's "all about image" and emotion, I can see them having

several algorithmic programs to choose from. There's the one to give a bull rally impression when they need more fleece, the "Goldilocks" program to induce complacency in the masses where you'll get fleeced and never know it until it's too late, and then the bear algorithm to give the impression that cycles still exist. :evilgrin:

[KoKo]

84. A Great One!

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[54anickel]

88. Hi KoKo01 - Good to "see" you again! n/t

[KoKo]

102. Hi All! I lurk

but haven't had much of anything to add. Really enjoy the wit here! Kind of makes the bad news bearable...

:hi: :grouphug:

[UpInArms]

103. Hi KoKo!

:hi:

:grouphug:

[AnneD]

92. Hi KoKo

thanks for the info BTW. :hi:

[ozymandius]

5. Bonds can't meet pension demand

Global demand by pension funds for long-dated government bonds is far outstripping the supply available, according to a report on financial market trends released on Thursday.

In the report, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the Paris think-tank, attempts to assess the size of the potential demand for long-dated bonds by pension funds in the Group of 10 industrialised countries, including the US, the UK and Japan.

-cut-

Demand for long-dated bonds by pension funds is surging, partly because of new regulations requiring them to match their liabilities - the payments to current and future pensioners - to the assets they hold.

In response to this demand, governments across the globe have recently started issuing debt of longer maturities. Both France and the UK launched 50-year bonds last year. In February, the US Treasury re-introduced a 30-year bond.

more

[ozymandius]

6. GM Shares Up Despite First-Quarter Loss

DETROIT - General Motors Corp. managed to reduce the flow of red ink in the first quarter, significantly narrowing its losses as a major restructuring began to take hold, but the world's biggest automaker acknowledged it still has a long way to go before it returns to profitability.

"We're still burning cash. We're still not comfortable where we are with our cash flow," GM Chief Financial Officer Frederick "Fritz" Henderson.

Wall Street analysts said the results were better than expected, but they warned that GM faces significant headwinds, including rising gas prices that could hurt a new lineup of sport utility vehicles and ongoing negotiations over wages at Delphi Corp., GM's former parts division. GM is expected to be on the hook for billions of dollars in Delphi labor and pension costs.

GM reported a first-quarter loss of $323 million, or 57 cents per share, on Thursday. While it was GM's sixth straight quarterly loss, it was an improvement over the January-March period of 2005, when GM lost $1.3 billion, or $2.22 per share, and stopped providing financial guidance.

more

[ozymandius]

7. Google 1st-Quarter Profit Surges 60 Pct.

SAN FRANCISCO - Google Inc. still has the golden touch. Defying recent skepticism that tarnished its stock, the Internet's search king dazzled investors late Thursday by reporting first-quarter earnings that obliterated analyst estimates and boosted the company's shares by 8 percent in late trading.

The results appeared to validate recent research showing Google has widened its lead over its fiercest rivals to grab a bigger piece of the Internet's increasingly lucrative advertising market.

The Mountain View, Calif.-based company said it earned $592.3 million, or $1.95 per share, during the first three months of the year. That compared with net income of $369.2 million, or $1.29 per share, at the same time last year.

more

[ozymandius]

8. G7 aims to tackle high oil prices

Finance ministers and central bankers from the world's seven biggest industrialised nations are due to meet in Washington on Friday.

Top of the agenda at the G7 meeting will be the effect of record oil prices on global trade imbalances and interest rate levels, analysts said.

-cut-

'Zero-sum gain'

"A disorderly unwinding of global imbalances would be very damaging and such an outcome becomes more likely as time passes and imbalances are left unaddressed," said Rodrigo Rato, the IMF's managing director.

"This is not a zero-sum game, but there is something to gain by all partners and the global economy if there is coordinated action," he continued.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4929356.stm

[ozymandius]

9. US sees record jump in e-ad revenues

Online ad revenues in the US jumped 30 per cent in 2005 as spending on online advertising continued to grow at a "healthy rate".

The latest figures from the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) and PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) showed that overall internet advertising revenues for the US hit a record $12.5bn during last year.

In the last three months of 2005 US internet advertising revenues hit $3.6bn - up 34 per cent on the same period in 2004.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2006/04/21/net_advertising/

[Mojorabbit]

11. Drugmakers Post 1st-Quarter Profit Gains

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060421/earns_drugs.html?.v=4
TRENTON, N.J. (AP) -- Drugmakers Merck & Co. and Eli Lilly and Co. on Thursday posted double-digit increases in first-quarter profit, while Schering-Plough Corp. tripled its small profit of a year ago.

All three pharmaceutical companies beat analysts' expectations on net income, but Merck and Lilly came in slightly below the analysts' revenue forecasts
snip
All three drugmakers reported decreased costs, LeCroy noted.

"That was the tune for the quarter: lower sales made up for by lower costs," he said.

As a result, analysts have reduced many profit estimates for the rest of the year, LeCroy said.

Still, Wall Street seemed pleased with the turnaround progress at Merck and Schering-Plough -- both struggling amid lost blockbusters, intense competition and legal or regulatory troubles -- and sent their shares up more than 2 percent each.

[Mojorabbit]

12. JPMorgan's $425 Mln IPO Accord May Lead Other Banks to Settle

April 21 (Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s decision to pay $425 million to settle legal claims that it rigged initial public offerings during the 1990s Internet stock boom may lead other banks to resolve their roles in the case.

JPMorgan, the No. 3 U.S. bank by assets, was the lead underwriter in 11 of the IPOs that are at issue and part of a syndicate in 180 other offerings, said Melvyn Weiss, a lawyer for investors suing the banks. Banks that played a larger role in the IPO process may wind up paying more to settle, he said.

``This is a major breakthrough,'' Weiss said. Lawyers for JPMorgan and the investors have reached a ``memorandum of understanding'' and must still resolve details of the settlement, he said.

The excesses of the stock-market bubble continue to haunt large U.S. banks such as JPMorgan, which has paid more than $4.2 billion to settle claims it published biased research and helped Enron Corp. and WorldCom Inc. defraud investors.
snip
`The deal with JPMorgan implies an aggregate recovery in the billions,'' said Howard Sirota, one of the lead lawyers in the case and a partner at New York-based Sirota & Sirota. ``It will likely have a catalytic effect on the remaining defendants.''

JPMorgan spokesman Joe Evangelisti said that an agreement had been reached ``in principle.''

``It would have no material adverse effect on our financial results,'' he said
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a1uVNcU7gP9E&refer=us

[UpInArms]

13. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

Last trade 88.11 Change -0.17 (-0.19%)

Dollar Recovers as Moves Reach Exhaustion

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/Dollar_Recovers_as_Moves_Reach_1145568508428.html

The US dollar regained strength today not because of good economic data, but because of exhaustion. The dollar has weakened significantly over the past week for many of reasons. However now that all of the important pieces of data are behind us and no US economic releases are scheduled for tomorrow, dollar bears took the opportunity to take profits ahead of the G7 weekend. Both the leading indicators and Philly Fed reports released today were weaker than expected. In fact leading indicators fell for the second month in a row in March and even though the performance of the manufacturing sector improved, it was not enough to change the market’s perception that the Federal Reserve is near the end of their tightening cycle. Bernanke was scheduled to speak today but he refrained from making any mention of the economy or monetary policy, which suggests that he is trying his best not to fall into the same trap as Greenspan did, which is to cause unwarranted volatility in the markets by making any surprise comments. This may be a good tactic since the market was already caught off guard by the difference in tone between the FOMC statement and the minutes from the same meeting. Oil and gold prices are both lower today as they also retraced from their own extremely exhausted moves. This pushed the commodity currencies lower and in fact, the day’s biggest movers were AUD/USD and NZD/USD, which sold off 1.2 percent and 1.4 percent respectively. However the most important thing to remember is that themes have not changed. The Fed is still less aggressive than the market had initially thought and the pressures pushing commodity prices higher namely, inflation fears, Iran and Chinese demand are still here to stay.

...more...

and here's a recap of this week's reports:

			Report			For	Actual	B.com	Market	Last	Revised
							Rpt	..Forecasts..	Rpt	From

Apr 17	8:30 AM		NY Empire State Index	Apr	15.8	23.0	24.0	29.0	31.2	
Apr 17	9:00 AM		Net Foreign Purchases	Feb	$86.9B	NA	NA	$69.1B	$66.0B	
Apr 18	8:30 AM		Building Permits	Mar	2059K	2110K	2100K	2179K	-	
Apr 18	8:30 AM		Core PPI		Mar	0.1	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%	-	
Apr 18	8:30 AM		Housing Starts		Mar	1960K	2090K	2025K	2126K	2120K	
Apr 18	8:30 AM		PPI			Mar	0.5	0.4%	0.4%	-1.4%	-	
Apr 18	2:00 PM		FOMC Minutes		Mar 28	-	-	-	-	-	
Apr 19	8:30 AM		Core CPI		Mar	0.3%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	-	
Apr 19	8:30 AM		CPI			Mar	0.4%	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%	-	
Apr 19	10:30 AM	Crude Inventories	04/14	-806K	NA	NA	3230K	-	
Apr 20	8:30 AM		Initial Claims		04/15	303K	310K	308K	313K	-	
Apr 20	10:00 AM	Leading Indicators	Mar	-0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.5%	-0.2%	
Apr 20	12:00 PM	Philadelphia Fed	Apr	13.2	12.0	14.3	12.3	-

[UpInArms]

27. Dollar weakens on Sweden's reserve shift (away from dollar)

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B86D2BF38%2D012E%2D487E%2D94B6%2D4F192A4E1B20%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar was lower across the board early Friday after the Swedish Central Bank said it had significantly reduced its holdings of dollars in its foreign exchange reserves. The Riksbank said it cut the share of dollar-denominated assets by 17% to 20% and boosted the euro's share by 13% to 50%. "Reserve diversification by central banks has been a key driver of dollar weakness this year and this news further serves to reinforce the notion that the greenback may be under more structural pressure going forward," said Boris Schlossberg, senior currency strategist at Forex Capital Markets, in a note. In early New York trading, the euro rose 0.4% to $1.2329, while the dollar was down 0.4% at 117.03 yen.

[UpInArms]

53. Bad timing for the buck

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B60AEEDD6-3481-4ECD-98C5-9C2916BEC1D9%7D&symbol=

excerpt:

When the primary concerns for the U.S. during the first few years of the new millennium were potential deflation and sinking corporate profits, a falling U.S. dollar proved most useful. Read more.

When surging commodities prices, inflation, and sagging overseas economies were the biggest concerns, the dollar's rally over the last year and a half come in pretty handy.

With crude and some industrial metals prices reaching all-time highs and the jobless rate at 5-year lows, the latter concerns are bigger than ever. But don't expect the dollar to lend a hand anymore.

In fact, it may even add to the worries, because given the technical reversal pattern that is in the process of being confirmed, the buck's uptrend appears to have just ended. Or has it just returned to its earlier downtrend? Either way, it's pretty bad timing.

<snip>

One way to project a downside target following the completion of a head-and-shoulders pattern, is the measured move calculation. If you subtract the height of the pattern (Sept. 2 low to the Nov. 16 high) from the breakdown point (88.85) you get a target of around 82.25.

<snip>

The U.S. current account deficit may be a big problem, but an even bigger problem would be not being able to find enough people to fund it.

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

65. Russia Finance min-Dollar not absolute reserve unit (OUCH!)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-21T154453Z_01_N21256689_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-RUSSIA-DOLLAR-UPDATE-1.XML

WASHINGTON, April 21 (Reuters) - Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said on Friday he did not view the U.S. dollar's status as a reserve currency as absolute, given the volatility in its value over the past several years.

Kudrin, in Washington for the semiannual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, told reporters at a news briefing the dollar's value had not been very stable in the past several years, particularly against the euro.

"This causes significant changes in the international situation and that is why we do not understand the U.S. dollar at the moment as the universal or absolute reserve currency," he said. "The international community can hardly be satisfied with this instability."

"Whether it is the U.S. dollar exchange rate or the U.S. trade balance, it definitely causes concerns with regard to the dollar's status as a reserve currency," Kudrin added.

...more...

Now that should leave a bruise, as the world punishes the policies of this mal-administration.

[54anickel]

67. Achieving new lows - how long before we hit that 52 week low?

Last trade 87.98 Change -0.30 (-0.34%)

Settle Time 15:00 Open 88.28

Previous Close 88.28 High 88.53

Low 87.93 2006-04-21 11:28:20, 30 min delay

52wk High 92.63 52wk High Date 2005-11-16

52wk Low 83.36 52wk Low Date 2005-04-22

[54anickel]

72. Yuan may topple US dollar

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=22&art_id=17033&sid=7594955&con_type=1

Jim Rogers, who joined George Soros to start the Quantum hedge fund in the 1970s, said the yuan may overtake the US dollar as the most accepted currency among the world's central banks.

Friday, April 21, 2006

Jim Rogers, who joined George Soros to start the Quantum hedge fund in the 1970s, said the yuan may overtake the US dollar as the most accepted currency among the world's central banks.
The yuan may surge in years ahead and the US dollar will fall, Rogers said.

Powered by record exports and investment in manufacturing, China's economy has doubled in size in the past decade, overtaking Britain and France last year to become the fourth-largest in the world.

"If there's a currency that has the potential to replace the dollar, the only one I can see on the horizon is the . The going to go much, much higher," said Rogers, 63, declining to give a forecast.

more...


FOREX: Euro spikes up on Russia finmin reserve remarks
http://today.reuters.co.uk/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=usDollarRpt&storyID=2006-04-21T144459Z_01_NYJ000054_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FOREX-URGENT-UPDATE-7.XML

NEW YORK, April 21 (Reuters) - The euro spiked up to a fresh session high against the dollar on Friday after Russia's finance minister, Alexei Kudrin, said the dollar wasn't the world's absolute reserve currency.

The euro popped up around 45 ticks to $1.2360 <EUR=>, a new session high and and up around 0.3 percent on the day.

Kudrin's remarks at the Group of Seven meeting of finance ministers and central bankers in Washington came the same day Sweden's central bank said it had increased the share of euros in its foreign exchange reserves to 50 percent.



Dollar weakens on reserve shift
Swedish central bank boosts euro's share to 50%

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BA9DF19D5-277A-41EF-B3A5-2ADD44F6EEEA%7D&siteid=google

snip>

The Riksbank said it reduced dollar-denominated assets by 17% to 20% and boosted its euro holdings by 13% to 50%. It also cut its yen holdings, which had previously been at 8% and increased reserve holdings in the Norwegian krone's by 10%. Sweden's currency reserves stood at around $21 billion at the end of last year.
"Many might see this as a signal of a wider trend that dollar holdings might eventually be cut," said Naomi Fink, currency strategist at BNP Paribas. "It did have an impact on the market, although this is not representative of how global reserve holders are going to allocate their reserves. The market is much more interested in larger reserve holders."

snip>

The news from Sweden followed comments in the past month by Middle Eastern central banks that they're looking to diversify reserves away from the greenback and raise the euro's weighting. Chinese officials have also repeatedly suggested that China should gradually stop buying dollar-denominated bonds.

"Reserve diversification by central banks has been a key driver of dollar weakness this year and this news further serves to reinforce the notion that the greenback may be under more structural pressure going forward," said Boris Schlossberg, senior currency strategist at Forex Capital Markets, in a note.

But Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, noted that while the Swedish announcement "caught the market a bit wrong-footed," it's not "as dollar negative as initial market reaction may suggest."

Data from the International Monetary Fund and Bank for International Settlements showed industrial countries held about 70% of their reserves in U.S. dollars. Sweden was well below that benchmark and over time it's expected to move more into the euro orbit, Chandler said.

"There does appear to be an adjustment of reserve composition, but an orderly implementation of it need not impact prices, nor does it change the role of the dollar in the world economy. It remains the single largest reserve asset," he said.

more...

Is this a new type of Plaza Accord? CBs and the G7 helping to devalue the buck? China said "absolutely not" to Plaza redux, so is this the answer instead? Does China have that much pull? :shrug:

[54anickel]

77. DJ UK PRESS: Note Demand May Distort Money Supply -ECB Study

From 4/12/06...Just makes me go hmmmm....Well, at least the ECB still considers M3 an important indicator.

http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2006/04/12/1567087.htm

Apr 12, 2006 (Dow Jones Commodities News Select via Comtex) --Internet banking and unexpectedly strong demand for euro notes, especially EUR500 notes, may be distorting money supply data, according to a European Central Bank study, The Financial Times reported on its Web site Wednesday.

Demand for euro notes has continued to grow apace, even four years after the switch from national currencies in the 12-country eurozone, the ECB reported in its monthly bulletin on Wednesday. Currency in circulation grew at an annual rate of 13.6% in February.

snip>

One explanation could be that low interest rates have reduced incentives to pay cash into bank accounts, according to The Financial Times. The rapid growth in EUR500 notes - the largest denomination available - suggests individuals are hoarding cash. But criminal activities could also explain the demand.

Separate ECB figures showed that the number of outstanding EUR500 notes rose by 22% last year, after 28% growth the previous year.

Such trends are significant because currency in circulation has accounted for much of the growth in M1, the narrow money-supply measure, the report said. This in turn has been the main contributor in recent years to growth in M3, the broader money-supply measure watched closely by the ECB. Another factor behind M1 growth, the bulletin article suggests, is the growth of internet accounts, the report said.

[UpInArms]

14. Ford Posts $1.2 Billion Loss in First Quarter

7:02am 04/21/06 Ford Motor Q1 First Call ave. rev. est. $39.67B - MarketWatch.com

7:01am 04/21/06 Ford Motor Q1 adj. earns 24c - MarketWatch.com

7:02am 04/21/06 Ford Motor Q1 rev. $41.06B vs. $45.14B - MarketWatch.com

7:02am 04/21/06 Ford Motor Q1 First Call ave. earns est. 25c - MarketWatch.com

7:01am 04/21/06 Ford Motor Q1 loss 64c vs. 60c - MarketWatch.com

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BEFCBD8A1%2D691C%2D41F8%2D9423%2D3E67A442FB72%7D&siteid=mktw&dateid=38828%2E2983889815%2D869892793

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Ford Motor (F 7.95, +0.35, +4.6% ) reported a first-quarter loss of $1.2 billion, or 64 cents a share, vs. a loss of $1.2 billion, or 60 cents a share in the year-earlier period. Excluding non-recurring items, earnings would have been 24 cents a share. Revenue fell 9% to $41.06 billion from last year's $45.14 billion, as automotive sales declined 6% to $36.99 billion and financial services revenue fell 30% to $4.07 billion. Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call had been expecting earnings of 25 cents a share and revenue of $39.67 billion, on average. The automaker's stock closed Thursday up 35 cents at $7.95.

[UpInArms]

16. Debt Weakens U.S. Hand on China

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/print?id=1867118

April 20, 2006 — When he appeared Thursday on the South Lawn of the White House with President Bush, China's president, Hu Jintao, heard "stop the torture and killings" from an Epoch Times newswoman sympathetic to the outlawed Falun Gong religious sect.

<snip>

"There is no question that our indebtedness to China weakens America's hand," Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., told ABC News. "Our negotiating leverage with China on trade issues and Iran is severely limited by the amount of debt they hold."

Bayh's prescription for cutting the deficit is no more detailed than that of his presidential rivals. He wants to get rid of earmarks, collect unpaid taxes and stop giving "endless" tax cuts to the wealthiest Americans.

<snip>

As governor of Indiana for eight years, Bayh balanced the budget, cut taxes and piled up a $1.6 billion surplus.

<snip>

To illustrate the risks the United States faces from its indebtedness to Asian central banks, Bayh points to the way the U.S. dollar began to go into a "free fall" last year when Japan's prime minister suggested that it might be time for Japan to start diversifying its dollar-denominated assets.

<snip>

"That is not the sign of a great nation," the Indiana Democrat continued, "It is the sign of dependency, of weakness."

...more...

[UpInArms]

17. The One Certainty About Iraq: Spiralling Costs for Americans

Poor Planning, Need for New Equipment Could Push War Costs to $1 Trillion

http://abcnews.go.com/International/print?id=1866779

April 20, 2006 — - There are many uncertainties about the progress made by coalition forces and the future prospects for stability and democracy in Iraq, but there is at least one indisputable fact: The Bush administration vastly underestimated the costs of the Iraq war.

Not only in human lives, but in monetary terms as well, the costs of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq far exceed the administration's initial projection of a $50 billion tab. While the number of American casualties in Iraq has declined this year, the amount of money spent to fight the war and rebuild the country has spiralled upward.

The price is expected to almost double after lawmakers return to Capitol Hill next week when the Senate takes up a record $106.5 billion emergency spending bill that includes $72.4 billion for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The House passed a $92 billion version of the bill last month that included $68 billion in war funding. That comes on top of $50 billion already allocated for the war this fiscal year.

<snip>

ABC analyst Tony Cordesman, who also holds the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says the exorbitant costs come down to poor planning.

"When the administration submitted its original budget for the Iraq war, it didn't provide money for continuing the war this year or any other. We could end up spending up to $1 trillion in supplemental budgets for this war."

...more...

[saigon68]

19. This is what is fueling employment in amerika

Local FWD plants are working 3 shifts to repair, renew trucks damaged in battle. A lot of borrowed $$$$ are being spent right here. The Bush clones have to keep the war going.

[UpInArms]

20. Halliburton 1st-quarter earnings surge

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2006-04-20T215635Z_01_WEN5126_RTRUKOC_0_US-ENERGY-HALLIBURTON-EARNS.xml

HOUSTON (Reuters) - Halliburton Co. <HAL.N>, the world's No. 2 oilfield services company, posted sharply higher first-quarter earnings on Thursday as energy producers continued to spend heavily to boost oil and gas output.

The Houston-based company reported first-quarter net income of $488 million, or 91 cents per share, versus $365 million, or 72 cents per share in the year-earlier quarter.

Net income for the quarter from continuing operations was 90 cents per share, beating analysts consensus forecast of 88 cents per share, according to Reuters Estimates.

Revenue rose to $5.21 billion from $4.78 million a year earlier.

<snip>

Engineering and construction unit KBR's revenues fell by 13 percent to $2.3 billion during the quarter, primarily due to decreased military support activities in Iraq, where it is the Pentagon's largest private contractor.

<snip>

Total revenue from Iraq-related work was $1.1 billion in the quarter, yielding $28 million in operating income for a 2.5 percent margin, the company said.

...more...

[54anickel]

51. Quote from yesterday's thread seems so appropriate - again

We have never had a presidency in which the single unifying thread that flows through its major decision-making was incompetence—

http://www.vanityfair.com/commentary/content/printables/060417roco03?print=true

[AnneD]

73. Ain't it the truth.....

I ought to start a thread President Bush is....fill in the blank..... Bet we learn some more colourful adjectives. It will be hard to top crap weasel though:rofl:

[54anickel]

87. Vast new Baghdad embassy to dwarf others worldwide

http://www.suburbanchicagonews.com/beaconnews/city/2_1_AU15_EMBASSY_S1.htm

BAGHDAD, Iraq — The fortress-like compound rising beside the Tigris River here will be the largest of its kind in the world, the size of Vatican City, with the population of a small town, its own defense force, self-contained power and water, and a precarious perch at the heart of Iraq's turbulent future.

The new U.S. Embassy also seems as cloaked in secrecy as the ministate in Rome.

"We can't talk about it. Security reasons," Roberta Rossi, a spokeswoman at the current embassy, said when asked for information about the project.

snip>

The embassy complex — 21 buildings on 104 acres, according to a U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee report — is taking shape on riverside parkland in the fortified "Green Zone," just east of al-Samoud, a former palace of Saddam Hussein's, and across the road from the building where the ex-dictator is now on trial.

snip>

State Department spokesman Justin Higgins defended the size of the embassy, old and new, saying it's indicative of the work facing the United States here. "It's somewhat self-evident that there's going to be a fairly sizable commitment to Iraq by the U.S. government in all forms for several years," he said in Washington.

more...

[UpInArms]

21. Missouri to sue Ameren over reservoir collapse - profits over safety

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/business/financial_markets/14391948.htm

ST. LOUIS - Missouri is preparing to sue electric utility Ameren Corp. over the collapse of a reservoir, accusing the company of stressing profits over safety at a nearby plant and delaying repairs, Attorney General Jay Nixon said Thursday.

Ameren emphasized income over safety at the Taum Sauk hydroelectric plant and delayed critical repairs for months before the collapse to maximize income, Nixon said in a telephone interview with The Associated Press.

"It's just so apparent and clear to us that there was an accelerated use of this facility for economic reasons and there was a clear pattern of corporate incentives for profit, not so much a corporate culture to shut it down and fix it," Nixon said.

The mountaintop Taum Sauk reservoir breached before dawn Dec. 14, sending more than 1 billion gallons of water rushing through Johnson's Shut-Ins State Park and injuring a family of five. The southeast Missouri park was empty other than the family of the superintendent, who lived there.

"We are approaching this with the seriousness that would be applied if this had happened on the Fourth of July when there were 1,500 people in the park," Nixon said. He is pursuing both civil and criminal cases but declined to say which type might be filed.

<snip>

An AP investigation revealed last week that Ameren's companywide incentive system for plant managers pays out 60 percent of annual operating bonuses for generating profits, meeting budget and keeping plants open. Twenty percent is given for safety issues like avoiding lost-time accidents. The remaining 20 percent is tied to pollution control.

...more...

Jay Nixon is almost on par with Eliot Spitzer :D

[UpInArms]

22. RadioShack first-quarter profit plunges

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B8CD82A25-4764-4FD5-80E7-475FE2852514%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Struggling home electronics retailer RadioShack Corp. on Friday posted a steep 85% decline in first-quarter profits, hurt by weakness in wireless sales.

The disappointing performance comes as the company is launching a sweeping restructuring effort to stem slumping sales and shaky profits and recovering from the resignation of its chief executive after it was revealed he lied on his resume.

First-quarter net income fell to $8.4 million, or 6 cents a share from $55 million, or 34 cents a share a year ago. Write-downs in connection with the company's turnaround plan related to fixed assets and inventory reduced the company's pre-tax income by about $10 million.

<snip>

"While we knew first quarter would be weak, the results are worse than we anticipated," Claire Babrowski, president and acting CEO said in a statement. "We clearly have a lot more work to do to get this company back to levels of profitability which we all expect. The first quarter results do nothing to change our belief in the turnaround plan announced early this year."

...more...

This is what happens when LIARS are allowed to be mis-leaders :evilgrin:

[ozymandius]

32. I walked past a Radio Shack last weekend.

Employees outnumbered customers 3-to-1. And then I thought: when did they start selling tumbleweeds?

[AnneD]

35. My brother and I

were such electronics geeks we lived for their newest catalogue when we were growing up. My how things have changed. I worked at one of their subsidiary companies and watched them run that into the ground. Just such sorry management destroying another Amreican company while lining their pockets. You use to be punished for thefts like bank robbery. I think we need some laws against this kind of theft.

[UpInArms]

23. Bernanke and the Three Bears

The "Goldilocks economy" faces a dangerous trio: Inflation, a falling dollar, and cooling growth

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/apr2006/pi20060421_677980.htm

The story about the U.S. "Goldilocks economy" -- where growth is at a pace that is "just right", neither too fast nor too slow -- is quickly approaching a new chapter. At their June meeting, Federal Reserve policymakers will need to look beyond the economic conditions bearing the curly-tressed trespasser's name to the Three Bears: the threats of rising core inflation, a falling dollar, and moderating economic growth.

It will be hard for the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee not to focus on what Fed chairman Ben Bernanke considers Papa Bear: inflation. The U.S. consumer price index report for March, released on Apr. 18, gave the bond market a taste of Papa's wrath. We saw a surprisingly resilient core reading (which excludes food and energy prices) at 0.3% for March.

Headline CPI inflation has consistently outpaced core inflation since 1999, with the exception of the one-year period following the September 11 terrorist attacks, and core inflation has been pushing higher from its cyclical trough in late 2003 at 1.1%. The recent plateau in core inflation has been welcome at the Fed, but there is clear risk of a renewed uptrend.

NO REPRIEVE. We, and the markets, have consistently assumed a reprieve in the upward march of energy prices, but to no avail. Any continued headline inflation strength would just heighten existing upside risk to core CPI inflation, as it hovers just above the 1.5% to 2% rate often cited as desirable by economists.

<snip>

DOLLAR'S DECLINE. While the Fed needs to keep a close watch on the patriarch of the ursine household, it must also remain wary of Mama Bear -- the declining value of the U.S. dollar vs. other currencies. In this regard, the dollar appears poised to resume its downward trend from the peak in February, 2002, following some reprieve in 2005. A downtrend is in place for the U.S. currency this year despite the 2005 bounce, which we attribute partly to the effects of repatriation, and partly to the mismatch of economic growth between the U.S. and the other major industrialized economies. The gap between U.S., European, and Japanese growth prospects is now narrowing.

Finally, we turn our attention to Baby Bear: the pace of U.S. economic growth. Here, the news in 2006 has been remarkably positive for the economy, and in the first quarter this may have raised suspicions that the Fed hasn't been aggressive enough. But now, a robust U.S. economic performance for the quarter will leave the monthly and quarterly data for the remainder of the year with nowhere to go but down, and this will shift attention to whether the Fed may have gone too far in its series of rate tightenings.

...more...

[UpInArms]

39. US's SnowJob - Don't blame just us for imbalances

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-21T135111Z_01_N21143539_RTRIDST_0_GROUP-SNOW-IMBALANCES.XML

WASHINGTON, April 21 (Reuters) - Don't blame just the United States for the burgeoning U.S. current account deficit, U.S. Treasury John Snow said in a newspaper column published on Friday, urging scrutiny of other countries' rigid exchange rates and slow growth.

Global imbalances, the diplomatic term of art for uneven flows of trade and capital, is a key theme at meetings of economic officials from the Group of Seven major industrial nations and members of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund in Washington this weekend.

Some point to the United States, with its low domestic saving and internal budget deficit, saying it finances unbridled consumption with borrowing from abroad. The IMF this week suggested the United States reduce its fiscal deficit to help restore balance to trade and capital flows.

But Snow, in an article in the Washington Post's opinion pages, said such criticism is a veiled suggestion the United States reverse the tax cuts that are a centerpiece of President George W. Bush's economic policy, and called it "narrow."

...more...

OMG! Someone wants to take the piggies tax cuts away! The Horror! The Horror! The Horror!

[UpInArms]

25. Enron: Prosecution's jabs score points against Skilling

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/steffy/3808741.html

excerpt:

•Skilling conceded Thursday that he violated Enron's ethics policy, and Berkowitz raised the possibility that he backdated one of his investment checks to avoid paying federal gift taxes. Skilling denied it, but he said he couldn't recall what the checks were for or when he wrote them.

•Berkowitz showed how Skilling tried to mislead not just by omission, but with financial gibberish. Skilling argued, for example, that Enron was honest with the market because it published the company's value-at-risk data, a measure of risk.

<snip>

•Berkowitz cast doubt on Skilling's motive for leaving Enron in August 2001. Skilling claimed he left to spend more time with his family, but Berkowitz suggested two months later he was interested in running Lucent Technologies. Skilling denied it.

<snip>

On cross, he denied, evaded or simply failed to recall, arguing every point, derisively repeating questions as if he were annoyed by their stupidity. He bristled at not being able to control the proceedings. Once, he even raised his own objection, drawing a rebuke from the judge.

Skilling's testimony proves he doesn't get it. Enron is gone, failed at his hands and those of his codefendant. He's now had a chance to tell his story, implausible though it was.

...more...

[UpInArms]

26. Gold @ $627 oz - Copper above $3 lb

8:30 AM ET 4/21/06 GOLD UP $3.90 AT $627 AN OUNCE

8:30 AM ET 4/21/06 COPPER BREAKS THROUGH $3 A POUND FOR THE FIRST TIME

[UpInArms]

30. Gold resumes bull run; copper above $3

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B426FC498-9503-4C0B-A9CB-D7ABA9ACF9D0%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rose early Friday and copper rallied to a record above $3 a pound, with analysts forecasting no end in sight for the metals rally.

Gold for June delivery was last trading up $4.90 at $628 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, rebounding from a 2% pullback on Thursday.

Copper was up 4.30 cents at $3.005 a pound, having earlier risen to as high as $3.046.

Silver bucked the trend, trading down 12.5 cents at $12.40. The contract closed down 13.8% on Thursday, as traders booked gains after a series of multiyear highs.

Silver has rallied strongly since the beginning of the year in anticipation of the launch of a silver exchange-traded fund, currently in registration by Barclays. The ETF is expected to strongly boost physical demand for silver.

Analysts remain bullish on gold, describing Thursday's price action as a normal correction as the metal heads toward $700 an ounce.

...more...

[UpInArms]

36. June Gold @ $627 oz - May Silver @ $12.48 oz - May Copper @ $3.035 lb

9:47 AM ET 4/21/06 JUNE GOLD CLIMBS $3.90 TO $627/OZ IN MORNING TRADING

9:47 AM ET 4/21/06 MAY SILVER FALLS 4.5C TO $12.48/OZ AFTER 2-WK LOW OF $12.15

9:47 AM ET 4/21/06 MAY COPPER RISES TO A RECORD $3.035/LB, UP 7.3C, OR 2.5%

[UpInArms]

61. June Gold @ $630 oz - May Silver @ $12.71 oz - May Copper @ $3.075 lb

11:34 AM ET 4/21/06 JUNE GOLD UP $6.90, OR 1%, AT $630/OZ IN LATE MORNING TRADE

11:34 AM ET 4/21/06 MAY SILVER RISES 18.5C TO $12.71/OZ AFTER 2-WK LOW OF $12.15

11:34 AM ET 4/21/06 MAY COPPER TAPS A RECORD $3.075/LB, UP 11.3C, OR 3.8%

[54anickel]

95. Looks like gold's calling a "do-over" for yesterday.

Closing today just about the same as it closed Wed.

Apr 19 NY Close - 632.70
Apr 21 NY Close - 632.50

Apr 20 NY Close - Doesn't freakin' matter! :evilgrin:

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

99. So What Do You Make Of This?

There seems to be So Much resistence, and I don't think there has been a drop yet, which hasn't been recovered in under a week's time. It's basically moving up an average of a few $ a week, regardless of any relatively minor corrections.

When it was around $450, I had wanted to start loading up. When it was at $550 within a few months, I was saying the same thing. Now that it's approaching $650, is there any reason to continue being somewhat cautious, or does this have legs so strong, that it's as close as one comes to a sure thing?

[UpInArms]

100. here's what the gold folks say:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B426FC498-9503-4C0B-A9CB-D7ABA9ACF9D0%7D&symbol=

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures climbed 2% Friday to recoup almost all of the previous session's loss, silver recovered from a two-week low and copper rallied above $3 a pound to close its highest level on record as analysts remained upbeat about longer-term prospects for the metals market.

"Although gold remains vulnerable to at least another bout of selling as we head into next week, the fact that it erased Thursday's losses demonstrates (for the time being) the fact that this bull is alive and kicking," said Jon Nadler, an investment products analyst at bullion dealers Kitco.com.

"For the sixth week in succession, traders refused to go home without the protective cover of gold in their arsenal," he said.

Gold for June delivery rose $12.40 to close at $635.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, rebounding from a $12.90 pullback on Thursday.

"Iran's continuing stubborn stance, Russia's back-pedal posture against Iranian retributions, $75 per barrel oil, and continued worries about the day of reckoning for the dollar outweighed the nice feelings that most profit-takers experienced on Thursday," said Nadler.

Overall, analysts remain bullish on gold, describing Thursday's price action as a normal correction that won't disrupt a potential price move toward $700 an ounce.

...more...

[54anickel]

104. JMHO, and worth what you're paying for it...nothing -

This "bull" has a ways to run. The entrance of hedge funds on such a large scale has me a bit nervous, but with calls for a 30% drop in the buck, not to mention all the geopolitical tensions, gold has a long way to go after a 20 year bear market. Rising gold with interest rates rising at the same time - good omen for gold. If you're looking to buy on the dips, you've gotta be fast these days for the reasons you mentioned. There might be a pullback should the calls for a economic slowdown later this year come true, but I think it will be short lived and it's really going to depend on what else is going on in the world - lots of tension and the Idiot 'n Thief isn't helping matters any in that area. Seems the commodities are screaming inflation, the Fed's behind and we've got Chopper Ben at the helm. Pretty safe bet that gold's going up.

Has Gold Sensed That Interest Rates Will No Longer Support the Sickly Dollar?
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=18980

LONDON (ResourceInvestor.com) -- The very recent upsurge in the gold price, as distinct from the broader uptrend of the last few years, may signal that we are approaching a point beyond which relatively high interest rates in the U.S. will no longer contribute any support for the fundamentally overvalued dollar.

For a while now, the U.S. Federal Reserve has been cognisant of the fact that its policy of raising interest rates has played a role in delaying the inevitable recommencement of the dollar’s decline.

The Fed has likely been more than happy with this effect, as by delaying the fall in the dollar it postpones the rude awakening that awaits U.S. consumers, which keeps the U.S. economy looking moderately sound for that little bit longer.

snip>

This implied relationship is though not an absolute one, and is highly variable, being a function of the dollar’s stability rather than its relative value at any one time, and complicated by the take up of alternative reserve currencies and the vagaries of sentiment.

Once the dollar is seen to have stabilised at its new long term parity, the outlook for the gold price turns negative, particularly as alternative reserve currencies are likely by then to have come to much greater prominence.

But that scenario is some way off, and a complex chain of events has yet to unfurl. The most immediate question for investors is when the delaying factors discussed here will cease to act as a brake on the dollar’s inevitable decline.

It is undoubtedly only a matter of time until structural realities come to the fore for the dollar, but ultimately, it remains your correspondent’s belief that the final reckoning, and thus the peak in the gold price, will come only on a timetable set by East Asia. Interest rates are only a relatively insignificant part of the picture.

more...

[54anickel]

105. Gold Has Biggest Weekly Gain Since 2002 on Investment Demand

Heh-heh-heh, just to rub it for those CNBCers that were calling the top for gold and the beginning of the end

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000082&sid=asAYtq6lO6wQ&refer=canada

April 21 (Bloomberg) -- Gold had the biggest weekly gain in four years, rebounding from a 2 percent drop yesterday, on renewed speculation that the metal will fetch better returns than stocks and bonds.

Gold is up 46 percent in the past year, reaching a 25-year high yesterday of $649 an ounce before investors began a sell- off in precious metals that included a 14 percent plunge in silver. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index has gained 13 percent and holders of the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury have lost 3.2 percent in the past year.

``The gold market held its ground,'' said Daniel Vaught, an analyst at A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis. ``That it stayed well above $600 in the face of the silver sell-off convinced investors that it's still involved in a bull market.''

snip>

Investor demand for commodities continued to boost prices. Copper and zinc surged to records today, capping their sixth straight weekly gains. Commodity funds will attract $130 billion to $140 billion this year, up from $90 billion in 2005, with gold capturing about 3 percent of the investment, Newmont Mining Corp. President Pierre Lassonde told analysts yesterday.

snip>

The rapid gains in metals this year signal prices are near the top, some analysts said. Gold had gained more than $130 since January. In four weeks, silver had jumped more than $4.

``The trend has been called into question,'' said Ron Goodis, retail trading director at Equidex Brokerage Group Inc. in Closter, New Jersey. ``It's time to be on the sidelines and see what happens.''

That's what they said at 400, then 450, then 500...surely one of these times they'll get it right. :eyes:

[UpInArms]

29. Insteel to close Fredericksburg, Va., plant

8:39am 04/21/06 Insteel to take $4M pretax charges in Q3 - MarketWatch.com

8:38am 04/21/06 Insteel to close Fredericksburg, Va., plant - MarketWatch.com

8:39am 04/21/06 Insteel to exit industrial-wire business - MarketWatch.com

8:35am 04/21/06 Insteel Q2 sales up 9% to $89M - MarketWatch.com

8:34am 04/21/06 Insteel Q2 net 80c vs 53c - MarketWatch.com

[UpInArms]

31. Treasuries up as short buyers step into data recess

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-21T130543Z_01_N21315877_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS.XML

NEW YORK, April 21 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices traded higher early on Friday as investors in short positions took advantage of a dearth of economic data and Federal Reserve speakers to do some buying.

Benchmark 10-year notes <US10YT=RR> were trading 8/32 higher in price, with the yield falling to 5.02 percent from 5.05 percent late on Thursday.

"The market is a little bit oversold, and that is really the bottom line," said Alan De Rose, a trader at CIBC World Markets in New York, adding "as we get closer to 5 percent (on the 10-year yield) there is some buying in the market."

With little in the way of economic data on the calendar, and no Fed officials scheduled to speak, Treasuries were expected to trade within a recent range on Friday while investors pondered how far the Fed will go in its campaign of interest rate increases that began in June 2004.

Most are convinced the central bank will boost rates by 0.25 percentage point at a policy meeting in May, taking the target for the overnight lending rate on loans between banks to 5.00 percent.

...more...

[UpInArms]

70. U.S. Treasury seeks guidance (from Wall Street) on long bond supply

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-21T160749Z_01_WAT005386_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-TREASURY-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, April 21 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department said on Friday it is asking Wall Street to comment on whether supply of longer-maturity Treasury securities is matching demand.

"Please comment on conditions at the long end of the Treasury curve," Treasury is asking dealers in its agenda for a quarterly meeting of bond dealers April 27-28.

"How do you see supply in the long end matching up with the market demand for nominal and real duration?" Treasury asks.

Treasury is due to announce the government's borrowing needs May 1 and to announce refunding plans May 3, officials said.

[54anickel]

94. Iran tensions threaten Treasuries as safe haven

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyid=2006-04-21T144741Z_01_N21264028_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-BONDS-IRAN.xml

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Rising international tensions over Iran's nuclear program could undermine the traditional status of U.S. government bonds as a safe-haven asset but in the longer term, a crisis could benefit Treasury prices.

In times of high-stakes diplomatic poker or military confrontations, Treasury debt usually captures a strong bid as investors look for places to shelter their money. Treasuries fit the bill because they are so liquid and denominated in dollars, the world's premier reserve currency.

But the Iran nuclear crisis, if it escalates, could give many investors pause because of the heavy investments of Middle Eastern central banks in U.S. government debt.

A conflict with Iran could trigger a shift in those investment patterns. If central banks buy fewer Treasuries or stop buying them altogether, prices would tumble, something a safe-haven investor would hope to avoid at all costs.

snip>

OPEC countries held $84.9 billion of Treasury securities in February, up from $53.9 billion six months earlier, according to the Treasury Department. That number is likely understated because it doesn't include additional Middle East ownership of Treasuries made through banks in other countries, analysts say.

more...

[ozymandius]

33. pre-open blather

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.5.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.0. Stage remains set for stocks to open on an upbeat note as futures indications remain comfortably above fair value. Aside from another barrage of strong earnings results supporting a positive underlying tone, further deterioration in crude futures and falling bond yields are also helping pave the way for follow-through buying efforts.

08:38 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.2. No disruption in futures trading, which continues to point to a higher start for the market. There are no economic reports today, so traders will be left to focus on earnings, rates, commodity prices, and the geopolitical scene.

08:12 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.2. Futures trading is signaling a modestly higher start for the market, which continues to sport a bullish bias thanks in part to another batch of better than expected earnings results from the likes of Google (GOOG), 3M (MMM), Schlumberger (SLB), Broadcom (BRCM), and Capital One (COF). A dip in oil prices and the yield on the 10-yr note are also lending a measure of support at this juncture.

[UpInArms]

37. 9:51 EST All is Well in the Land of LaLa

Dow 11,382.43 +39.54 (+0.35%)
Nasdaq 2,362.84 +0.29 (+0.01%)
S&P 500 1,315.40 +3.94 (+0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 5.027 -0.12 (-0.24%)

NYSE Volume 306,394,000
Nasdaq Volume 291,698,000

[54anickel]

40. I just don't understand this recent rally. I mean, I thought the market

was forward looking, a leading economic indicator for what is to come 6-9 months down the road. Seems the stock market sees sunny skies up ahead. Forget the rate inversion we saw, forget the rising rates, forget the inflation gold is reporting, the commodity bull markets --- just ignore it all.

The only thing that makes sense to me is that they see the buck much lower in that future. :shrug:

[Roland99]

41. Apparently, we're all wrong with our doom and gloom talk.

Everything is sunshine and daisies!


WHEEE!!!!!!!!!

[rfranklin]

42. I think it has to do with options expiration....

They have to pump up the prices to put the options out of the money.

[54anickel]

47. I've never seen option expirations have such a huge effect, and effecting

more than a day or two - not even those triple and quadruple witchie thingies. :shrug:

Maybe the bulls are just getting over zealous to try and take out resistance on the way back to the all time high.

Whatever it is, it's crazy to watch. :crazy:

[Roland99]

68. What's the market's rise since M3 publication was ceased?

[UpInArms]

75. here are the numbers for March 23

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 23, 2006

Dow... 11,270.29 -47.14 (-0.42%)
Nasdaq... 2,300.15 -3.20 (-0.14%)
S&P 500... 1,301.67 -3.37 (-0.26%)
30-Year Bond 4.76% +0.03 (+0.61%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.74% +0.04 (+0.77%)
Gold future... 550.80 -0.90 (-0.16%)

Wow, look at bonds and gold since that day! :eyes:

[Roland99]

78. Hmm...decent rises in the indices but nothing glaring but yeah...

bonds and gold...yikes.

[Roland99]

80. I did some P/E ratio checking on Mar. 21...here's a comparison to today

Mar. 21

P/E Ticker Company
69.01 GOOG Google
17.30 IBM IBM
23.13 MSFT Microsoft
34.37 AAPL Apple Computer
14.29 INTC Intel
20.88 DELL Dell
49.23 EBAY Ebay
23.79 YHOO Yahoo
18.87 LMT Lockheed Martin
24.59 BA Boeing
22.39 GE General Electric
21.72 PG Proctor and Gamble
17.49 JNJ Johnson and Johnson
31.65 LLY Eli Lilly
24.17 PFE Pfizer
25.14 NVS Novartis
12.86 DE Deere & Co.
18.78 CAT Caterpillar
13.98 KUB Kubota
11.25 BGG Briggs & Stratton
19.46 LOW Lowes
15.81 HD Home Depot
24.36 WY Weyerhauser
25.17 VMI Valmont

Today

P/E Ticker Company
88.20 GOOG Google
16.82 IBM IBM
22.58 MSFT Microsoft
36.40 AAPL Apple Computer
13.60 INTC Intel
18.64 DELL Dell
45.12 EBAY Ebay
26.11 YHOO Yahoo
18.68 LMT Lockheed Martin
26.92 BA Boeing
21.54 GE General Electric
20.59 PG Proctor and Gamble
16.87 JNJ Johnson and Johnson
29.12 LLY Eli Lilly
22.81 PFE Pfizer
25.92 NVS Novartis
14.74 DE Deere & Co.
19.69 CAT Caterpillar
15.90 KUB Kubota
11.02 BGG Briggs & Stratton
18.42 LOW Lowes
14.84 HD Home Depot
25.10 WY Weyerhauser
32.52 VMI Valmont


Note: P/E ratios were taken from Yahoo! Finance

[UpInArms]

43. 10:12 EST LaLa Land's Bullshit sprouts Roses and Daisies - WHEE!

Dow 11,404.68 +61.79 (+0.54%)
Nasdaq 2,364.66 +2.11 (+0.09%)
S&P 500 1,317.42 +5.96 (+0.45%)
10-Yr Bond 5.018 -0.21 (-0.42%)

NYSE Volume 468,561,000
Nasdaq Volume 461,067,000

10:00 am : Major averages are off their best levels and now trade in split fashion as the Nasdaq briefly slips into negative territory. The latter has lost some early momentum in large part due to a reversal in semiconductor. Broadcom's (BRCM 43.95 -1.82) Q1 earnings nearly doubled, which plays into our Overweight rating on Technology; but investors are using the good news as an excuse to lock in some of the stock's 46% year-to-date surge. An analyst downgrade on Dell (DELL 27.24 -1.00) and an earnings disappointment from SanDisk (SNDK 61.16 -4.38) have also weighed on the tech-heavy Composite. DJ30 +36.92 NASDAQ -2.19 SOX -1.0% SP500 +3.21 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1157/1261/330 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 761/1804/282 mln

09:40 am : Market opens modestly higher as investors sift through another batch of better than expected earnings. Heading the list of notable names that are keeping the S&P 500 on track for its 11th consecutive quarter of double-digit profit growth is Google (GOOG 447.02 +32.02). The world's largest search engine, which was added to the S&P on March 31st, grew Q1 earnings 60% year/year. Dow component 3M (MMM 84.20 +1.60), which beat forecasts by a penny and raised its FY06 outlook, has also been a source of early support. Approximately 70% of the S&P 500 companies out with earnings so far have exceeded Wall Street's expectations. DJ30 +51.94 NASDAQ +4.77 SP500 +4.88 NASDAQ Vol 166 mln NYSE Vol 148 mln

[ozymandius]

54. I wonder if the buyers will wait around long enough to see if they receive

any dividends on their investments?

[wordpix]

74. it's almost like the late '90's---stocks on the uptick, so let's buy, buy,

buy

[54anickel]

79. Leading indicators signal trouble ahead

http://www.buffalonews.com/editorial/20060421/1034635.asp

snip>

At the same time, however, the Conference Board, a business-funded research group, said its Index of Leading Economic Indicators dipped 0.1 percent in March to 138.4 after falling a revised 0.5 percent in February to 138.5.

The March reading was slightly below analysts' projections; they had expected the index to show no change in March from February.

The declines followed four consecutive months of rising readings and came as soaring crude oil prices and higher interest rates are expected to begin cutting into consumer spending, which is the engine for two-thirds of the nation's economic growth.

Ken Goldstein, labor economist at the New York-based Conference Board, said the index declines appeared to be signaling weaker economic growth ahead.

"With the price of a barrel of oil rising above $70 and with interest rates slowly increasing, the global economy isn't likely to be picking up steam soon," he said in a statement. Higher oil prices, he said, would boost business costs and, likely, prices to consumers, dampening spending.

snip>

Investors, apparently more focused on quarterly earnings reports than economic news, sent the Dow Jones industrial average up 70.76, or 0.6 percent, to 11,349.53 in midafternoon trading.

more...

[Roland99]

83. VERY Short-sighted investing going on.

[ozymandius]

The 'two economies' idea makes the most sense to me.

There's the Wall Street economy. And then there's the economic conditions for the rest of us. I know that the markets are oversold on short selling. And if the daily blather is any indication - the markets and market prognosticators expect this to be the prevailing sentiment driving price fluctuations. The blatherers take into constant account those who pump and dump. It happens every week. Blather also accounts for those who 'do not wish to hold stocks over the weekend'.

Hedge funds also play on this sentiment. There is too much unregulated money in hedge funds to diminish this trading trait. Short term or long term - we are at their mercy. The only thing that could shake these go-go numbers right now, IMO, is a big tumble in the price of oil and gas. That looks to be the only sure bet these days on a comfortable return. As soon as the prices go down, however, money will seek an escape route. Prices across the board will fall as a result.

[AnneD]

81. I agree with the 2 economies....

Wall Street and Main Street diverged again after the dot com implosion. I always use to hear that Wall Street reflected our economy several months down the road, but it has been years since that was true too.

[specimenfred1984]

56. It's Fund Speculation, Greed, Greed, Greed

The fund managers know these markets are corrupt as they are the ones corrupting them. They know the Fed will support them with propaganda and they know the gov't propaganda will support them as well. Their own load of corporate shit they foist on us daily continues unabated as well.

It really comes down to this: if it's bad for Americans it's good for business. So, massive inflation that screws 95% of us means more money for the fascists who have the billions of dollars that are manipulating these markets.

It makes perfect sense if a person shifts their paradigm from democracy to corrupt fascism.

[54anickel]

44. Indonesia vulnerable to hot money reversal

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyid=2006-04-21T070616Z_01_HKG109021_RTRUKOC_0_US-ECONOMY-INDONESIA-HOTMONEY.xml

JAKARTA/HONG KONG (Reuters) - Indonesia may be Southeast Asia's hottest market but some analysts warn that speculative funds could flee at the slightest hint of trouble, as they did during the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998.

Foreign investors have beaten a path to Indonesia's financial markets, lured by the highest government bond yields on offer in Asia as well as an improved fiscal performance and the prospect of rate cuts, which help make the stock market attractive.

But worries about global oil prices and inflation could spoil the party and the risk remains that this hot money could make an abrupt exit, which would have a disastrous impact on the small local markets, where foreign cash plays a disproportionate role.

snip>

The vulnerability was illustrated last August when the rupiah plunged to a four-year low of 11,750 per dollar because of worries that the soaring cost of oil would exacerbate Indonesia's current account and budgetary problems.

In a bid to shore up confidence, the government slashed fuel subsidies last October, raising domestic prices -- which had been among the cheapest in Asia -- by an average 126 percent.

snip>

Investors took the view that the government would be able to raise prices again if necessary, reinforcing confidence in the team under President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who won election in 2004 pledging to fight corruption and revive the economy.

more...

[corporate_mike]

45. My 401(k) started moving up finally

it's been a good week so far

[54anickel]

50. No Nixon Moment on China's Currency

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_pesek&sid=aMX1.SWr.7sM

April 21 (Bloomberg) -- Chinese President Hu Jintao didn't mince words: China's currency will stay where it is.

For the second time in less than a year Asia's No. 2 economy outmaneuvered the world's biggest on the yuan. Last July, China announced a negligible 2.1 percent increase in its currency's value versus the dollar. This week Hu, on his first official U.S. visit, didn't budge amid Bush's concerns an undervalued yuan is costing the U.S. jobs.

The White House spin machine, not about to concede the point, is working overtime to argue the U.S. got the better of the nation most likely to challenge its global dominance in future decades.

As proof Bush bested China, U.S. officials point out that Hu didn't get a state dinner, that China spent billions on U.S. goods, that Hu said he ``understands U.S. concerns and will continue to take steps'' on the currency issue (Hu didn't mention the yuan in a speech to U.S. business leaders hours after meeting with Bush) and that there's little likelihood Beijing will suddenly dump its vast holding of Treasuries.

Nothing could be further from the truth, and the currency issue is the least of the reasons why.

Not Getting Asia

If the world needed another sign that the Bush administration either doesn't get what's happening in Asia, or doesn't care, Hu's U.S. visit was it. Those hoping for a Nixon moment with a fast- emerging rival both economically and politically didn't get it.

more...

[54anickel]

64. Hu Throws A Cat! (Today's Pfenning)

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=673

Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Well... Chinese President Hu came and went... And as William Pesek wrote for the Bloomberg... "No Nixon moment on China's currency for Bush"... I saw that and laughed out loud! That's creative writing right there! No Nixon moment... That just cracks me up!

Hu came and went... And not only did we not see a Nixon moment, we didn't get anything constructive! Instead, Hu threw a cat among the pigeons with this comment... "China is ready to peacefully resolve the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula and the Iranian nuclear issue through diplomatic negotiations." Those words alone caused a sell-off in gold and silver as you've never seen before!

As I told you all week long, the tough rhetoric between the U.S. and Iran was really fueling the run-up of oil, which gave gold and silver two reasons to rally... 1. Rising inflation concerns from more expensive oil. And 2. We all were having the bejeebers scared out of us as thoughts of a war with Iran crossed our minds... But that all went away in a heartbeat yesterday... The dollar rallied (not that much), and gold and silver got the living snot kicked out of them!

Now... I have to say that while I warned of a possible commodity correction the other day (Pfennig 4/19/06 " And I have to say, that commodities have really blown out of the water here in the past two weeks... So... A correction is not out of the realm of possibilities.") I sure didn't see THIS happening! Yesterday, I was asked to talk about the sell-off in gold and silver on Bloomberg radio... "Don't be nervous, don't be rocky, you're our guest FX disk jockey, now"!

I tried to make the points that I've made here and that is... A correction was due... And then the words by Chinese President Hu dropped a bomb on gold and silver... You dropped a bomb on me, baby, you dropped a bomb on me... No wait! This is serious stuff here! No time left for me to play around! I sure hope I got my message across... I sometimes wish that when they ask me to do those radio gigs, that they would just give me 5 minutes to read them the Pfennig!

snip>

Oh! This is a great one! You won't believe the latest line to come from Fed Chairman Big Ben... In a letter to lawmakers dated April 18... Big Ben told them... "If the dollar declined sharply, it would not necessarily disrupt markets." What? I can't believe he told them that! But what I want to point out more than his doltness is the fact that it sounds like he is preparing them for a sharp decline in the dollar!

more...

[54anickel]

52. Cash is Trash!

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/saxena/saxena042106.html

snip>

The global economy has severe imbalances with the US heavily in debt and facing record-high deficits. The total debt monster in the US has now grown to $46 trillion, the trade deficit now exceeds $800 billion and the American consumer is swimming in debt. Similar imbalances can be seen throughout the "developed" economies of the West. Therefore, bankers and governments who want to stay in power at all costs have decided to resort to accelerating the rate of monetary inflation. "But why would they do that?" you may wonder. The answer can be summed up in the following words -

Inflation makes debt less formidable and easier to handle.

snip>


Our world has faced inflation and nothing but inflation since the Great Depression of 1929 as the money supply has increased constantly. However, what concerns me is the fact that the rate of inflation (money supply growth) is likely to sky-rocket over the coming years. Below, I present the money supply growth rates around the world -

Australia + 8.1%
Britain + 12.2%
Canada + 6.4%
Denmark + 24%
US + 8%
Euro area + 8%


Looking at the above figures, you can see that over the past year, a significant amount of money has been introduced into the system. The thesis is that the surging money supply will cause the value of money to drop and make it easier to repay the mountains of debt. "But what about my savings?" you may ask. Frankly, the establishment does not care about your savings. In order to remain popular, the officials almost always cater to the needs of the majority. Today, the majority of the population is heavily in debt and with its back against the proverbial wall! Therefore, you can bet your bottom dollar that the rate of inflation will continue to surge and hyperinflation may not be far away.

Some argue that inflation is a good thing, a necessity in the modern economy as it facilitates trade. Personally, I don't buy into this concept because throughout the 19th century, we witnessed mild deflation, yet our world made huge progress over that period. Next time when somebody says that inflation is okay, ask them if they would like to own shares in a company, if this organisation issued and gave away new shares every year? Would they be interested in owning stock in this great company if roughly 10% new shares were being added to its share capital every year? The truth is that nobody in their right mind would invest in such a scam! Yet, people find it absolutely normal when the same thing happens to their money stock otherwise known as savings!

Money is supposed to be a store of value that acts as a medium of exchange. Well, the paper in circulation today does act as a medium of exchange because you can go to Starbucks and buy a cup of fancy coffee but it surely isn't a store of value!...

more...

[54anickel]

55. Financial War Games

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/shedlock/shedlock042106.html

Before getting to "War Games" let's recap some past wisdom from the man formerly behind the curtain:

1996 - Greenspan warns about irrational exuberance in the stock market
2000 - Greenspan embraces the "productivity miracle" and says there is no stock market bubble
2001 - Greenspan said bubbles can only be detected in hindsight
2004 - Greenspan says there is no housing bubble
2005 - Greenspan says there is no national housing bubble even though he admits we have "froth"

It's Different This Time

Here are some select comments from just released FOMC minutes from May 16, 2000 meeting shortly after the Nasdaq blowoff top:

snip>

What we are saying vs. What we are doing

Here is a recap of what Greenspan said:

- Perhaps the clearest evidence of the perceived benefits that derivatives have provided is their continued spectacular growth.

- The use of a growing array of derivatives and the related application of more-sophisticated approaches to measuring and managing risk are key factors underpinning the greater resilience of our largest financial institutions.

- The development of credit derivatives has contributed to the stability of the banking system by allowing banks, especially the largest, systemically important banks, to measure and manage their credit risks more effectively.

Here is what we are doing:

- Creating a 'NewBank' to provide liquidity in emergencies.

- Simulating financial meltdowns caused by an explosion in hedge funds and credit derivatives.

I have three questions:

more...

[54anickel]

58. Gold Bull with Numerous Legs (Willie)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie042006.html

With the gold price past the $600 mark, many have asked how long the gold bull will run. Simply put, a long way. In fact, simply put, gold will continue to run and run hard as long as the USGovt and USFed resist change, resist a recession, resist a severe decline in the USDollar, and insist on relying upon the printing press to solve its economic and financial problems. These trends are nowhere in sight for change. Gold was doubted way back when it was vaulting past the $400 mark. The $500 mark was critical, passed last summer. Extremely powerful developments reinforce the gold bull, factors which are historically significant, items for the history books. The sign posts contained rather significant painted messages written in defiant language and bold tones, indicating global shifts, such as:

* "The Chinese delink from the USDollar"
* "King Abdullah Diversifies Toward the Euro"
* "Alan Greenspan to be Succeeded by Ben Bernanke"
* "M3 Money Supply Statistic No Longer to be Published"


These are very important developments, major events, financial equivalents of serious and damaging earthquakes which work to change the financial landscape. We have just began to dance on the FOREX dance floor. Last year, gold was stepping on euro toes and yen toes, wearing golden slippers and displaying some nifty foot work. In 2003 and 2004, gold stepped on USDollar toes repeatedly and without apology. The night is young, and gold is tireless. Fat and bloated, the USDollar, euro, and yen are fat hogs, slow afoot, clumsy in foot work.


THE NEXT LEG
The next chapter for gold has other strong messages, compounding the powerful forces pushing gold up. These almost as earth shaking as the above factor messages, indicating continued global shifts, such as:

* "The USFed is Almost Done in its Tightening Cycle"
* "The Perma-War Will Cost billion$ More"
* "The Gold Cartel Faces Billion$ in Hedge Book Losses"


Don't be too sure about USFed Governors will avert a mistake in hiking a few more times. They always do, and always will. That is what they do, their reason for being. They engage in blatant attempts to control the market with their "FedSpeak BS" tactics. See the clown Fisher for his "8th inning" analogous comment last summer. Now we have Yellin talking about being near the end of the tightening cycle, "which is data dependent." In other words, the USFed still requires concurrent signals as it ignores future signal, a key indicator of their incompetence and ineptitude. What do you expect from the American Politburo freaks anyway? They are driving a giant bus and ignore signs, preferring to drive until they recognize having gone over the cliff.

more...

[54anickel]

59. The Worst President in History?

One of America's leading historians assesses George W. Bush

http://www.rollingstone.com/news/profile/story/9961300/the_worst_president_in_history?rnd=1145488898506&has-player=true

George W. Bush's presidency appears headed for colossal historical disgrace. Barring a cataclysmic event on the order of the terrorist attacks of September 11th, after which the public might rally around the White House once again, there seems to be little the administration can do to avoid being ranked on the lowest tier of U.S. presidents. And that may be the best-case scenario. Many historians are now wondering whether Bush, in fact, will be remembered as the very worst president in all of American history.

From time to time, after hours, I kick back with my colleagues at Princeton to argue idly about which president really was the worst of them all. For years, these perennial debates have largely focused on the same handful of chief executives whom national polls of historians, from across the ideological and political spectrum, routinely cite as the bottom of the presidential barrel. Was the lousiest James Buchanan, who, confronted with Southern secession in 1860, dithered to a degree that, as his most recent biographer has said, probably amounted to disloyalty -- and who handed to his successor, Abraham Lincoln, a nation already torn asunder? Was it Lincoln's successor, Andrew Johnson, who actively sided with former Confederates and undermined Reconstruction? What about the amiably incompetent Warren G. Harding, whose administration was fabulously corrupt? Or, though he has his defenders, Herbert Hoover, who tried some reforms but remained imprisoned in his own outmoded individualist ethic and collapsed under the weight of the stock-market crash of 1929 and the Depression's onset? The younger historians always put in a word for Richard M. Nixon, the only American president forced to resign from office.

Now, though, George W. Bush is in serious contention for the title of worst ever. In early 2004, an informal survey of 415 historians conducted by the nonpartisan History News Network found that eighty-one percent considered the Bush administration a "failure." Among those who called Bush a success, many gave the president high marks only for his ability to mobilize public support and get Congress to go along with what one historian called the administration's "pursuit of disastrous policies." In fact, roughly one in ten of those who called Bush a success was being facetious, rating him only as the best president since Bill Clinton -- a category in which Bush is the only contestant.

The lopsided decision of historians should give everyone pause. Contrary to popular stereotypes, historians are generally a cautious bunch. We assess the past from widely divergent points of view and are deeply concerned about being viewed as fair and accurate by our colleagues. When we make historical judgments, we are acting not as voters or even pundits, but as scholars who must evaluate all the evidence, good, bad or indifferent. Separate surveys, conducted by those perceived as conservatives as well as liberals, show remarkable unanimity about who the best and worst presidents have been.

Historians do tend, as a group, to be far more liberal than the citizenry as a whole -- a fact the president's admirers have seized on to dismiss the poll results as transparently biased. One pro-Bush historian said the survey revealed more about "the current crop of history professors" than about Bush or about Bush's eventual standing. But if historians were simply motivated by a strong collective liberal bias, they might be expected to call Bush the worst president since his father, or Ronald Reagan, or Nixon. Instead, more than half of those polled -- and nearly three-fourths of those who gave Bush a negative rating -- reached back before Nixon to find a president they considered as miserable as Bush. The presidents most commonly linked with Bush included Hoover, Andrew Johnson and Buchanan. Twelve percent of the historians polled -- nearly as many as those who rated Bush a success -- flatly called Bush the worst president in American history. And these figures were gathered before the debacles over Hurricane Katrina, Bush's role in the Valerie Plame leak affair and the deterioration of the situation in Iraq. Were the historians polled today, that figure would certainly be higher.

more...

[PATRICK]

62. The neutrality of historical judgment

was often demonstrated by historians measuring success in terms of achieving their agenda and a few other yardsticks that had no ideological biases or value judgments on the agendas themselves. But disasters seems to have run like multiple fuses lit at many ends, eating up the "successes" and achievements by those brutal standards so that nothing is left but the explosion to come. There was nothing compassionate or liberal in any of the historians' judgments or measurements that Bush has not injected forcibly into his own RW failures.

I would like to revisit those strict definitionists who strictly speaking would not equate the Bush regime and the RW extremists with classical fascism, itself a carefully limited phenomenon of ancient tyranny and elite power games with roused masses. The areas where they do not match are becoming small and irrelevant and themselves only the current limited peculiarities of our own narrow uniqueness as a nation.

[Sammy Pepys]

66. I don't think you'll ever get widespread support for that....n/t

....

[UpInArms]

76. 12:18 EST numbers and blather

Dow 11,370.58 +27.69 (+0.24%)
Nasdaq 2,354.21 -8.34 (-0.35%)
S&P 500 1,313.13 +1.67 (+0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 5.041 +0.02 (+0.04%)

NYSE Volume 1,125,439,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,122,487,000

12:00 pm : Market continues to trade in split fashion midday as more encouraging quarterly reporting spurs follow-through buying in blue chips while mixed earnings reports and more consolidation keeps the Nasdaq below the flat line. Google (GOOG 444.28 +29.28), which was added to the S&P on March 31st, reported 60% year/year EPS growth last night. Even though Google's 7.0% surge has been unable to single-handedly keep the tech-heavy Composite from consolidating some of its 7.1% year-to-date gain, the search engine's upbeat quarter has helped preserve investors' enthusiasm that the S&P 500 will turn in an 11th consecutive quarter of double-digit profit growth.

The Tech sector has lost ground amid further deterioration in semiconductor as well as weakness in hardware, storage and communications equipment. Broadcom's (BRCM 43.73 -2.04) Q1 earnings nearly doubled, which plays into our Overweight rating on Technology, but investors have used the good news as an excuse to lock in some of the stock's 46% year-to-date surge. An analyst downgrade on Dell (DELL 27.20 -1.04) as well as earnings disappointments from SanDisk (SNDK 60.06 -5.48) and LM Ericsson (ERICY 35.41 -2.57) are also weighing on the sector.

Getting back to the fact that about 70% of the S&P 500 companies out with earnings so far have exceeded Wall Street's expectations, Dow component 3M (MMM 85.23 +2.63) beat forecasts by a penny and raised its FY06 outlook, which plays into our Overweight rating on Industrials and helps extend the sector's 9.4% year-to-date gain. Of the seven remaining sectors trading higher, Energy paces the way higher amid a rebound in oil prices ($74.25/pbl +$0.56) as geopolitical concerns continue to linger. Schlumberger (SLB 68.21 +0.14) reporting a 38% jump in Q1 profits has also helped Energy's leadership offset growing concerns that higher energy bills may curb spending patterns. Also benefiting from as a reversal in the greenback, which has renewed buying interest in dollar-denominated commodities like gold as well, has been the Materials sector. Despite bonds recently turning negative and inching the yield on the 10-yr note (-01/32) back to 5.04%, the rate-sensitive Utilities sector has helped up nicely, getting a huge lift from an analyst upgrade on TXU Corp (TXU 51.98 +3.38). BTK -1.3% DJ30 +42.82 DJTA +0.3% DJUA +0.6% DOT -0.3% NASDAQ -6.83 NQ100 -0.3% R2K +0.1% SOX -1.5% SP400 +0.1% SP500 +3.10 XOI +1.9% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1477/1353/1.05 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1258/1817/780 mln

[54anickel]

82. Buy Quality, Buy It Now

http://biz.yahoo.com/ms/060421/161775.html

snip>

One of the recent trends that many investors appear to be extrapolating into the far future is a marked lack of volatility in financial markets. All has been quiet on the western front for a few years, and as a result, the return that's being demanded for risky assets relative to less-risky assets has become very, very small. In other words, investors in just about every part of the financial markets are demanding very little return "bang" for their risk "buck." In even fewer words, they're complacent.

You can see this wherever you look. In equity markets, one good measure is the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index--the VIX--which is essentially the amount of volatility that options traders are expecting in the near future. When it's high, there's a lot of fear in the market, and when it's low, option traders expect smooth sailing in the days ahead. The VIX has recently been hitting its lowest levels since the mid-1990s.

snip>

Go for Quality
So, where does this market full of risk-seeking, highly complacent investors leave us? For one, it should remind prudent investors with long time horizons that calm seas are not inevitable in financial markets. As ex-maestro Alan Greenspan put it in congressional testimony in July, "History cautions that long periods of relative stability often engender unrealistic expectations of its permanence and, at times, may lead to financial excess and economic stress."

Backing up this point, I'd note that the last time emerging-market bonds spreads were this low was mid-1998, just before Russia defaulted on its debt and Long-Term Capital management blew up. The point here is that things have a way of going wrong when (and how) you least expect. How many people in early 1998 would have listed "a hedge fund run by two Nobel Prize winners" as the biggest upcoming threat to financial markets?

more...

[UpInArms]

86. 1:54 EST no change for record oil and slumping dollar

Dow 11,380.27 +37.38 (+0.33%)
Nasdaq 2,356.03 -6.52 (-0.28%)
S&P 500 1,314.69 +3.23 (+0.25%)
10-Yr Bond 5.027 -0.12 (-0.24%)

NYSE Volume 1,462,984,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,441,266,000

1:30 pm : Crude oil futures ($74.85 +1.16) hit yet another session high but because of Energy's leadership, the indices continue to hold onto modest gains. Escalating concerns that supplies may shrink due to geopolitical issues in Iran and Nigeria, coupled with weakness in the dollar which is on track for its biggest weekly loss against the euro in roughly a month. It appears that currency traders are hesitant to think the dollar can repeat last year's more than 14% surge, especially with the Fed nearing an end to its tightening efforts. DJ30 +36.75 NASDAQ -6.82 SP500 +3.14 XOI +2.6% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1486/1425/1.36 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1255/1901/1.01 bln

1:00 pm : Range-bound trading persists but the bulk of industry leadership remains positive. Energy is still turning in the day's best performance as oil prices hover at record highs. The sector has gotten an extra lift within the last 30 minutes as Exxon Mobil (XOM 64.89 +0.97) hits its best levels of the day after A.G Edwards raised their price target on XOM to $72 from $69. DJ30 +39.38 NASDAQ -5.93 SP500 +3.28 XOI +2.2% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1472/1418/1.27 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1249/1887/938 mln

[Zynx]

89. The market likes the falling dollar since so much of many oompanies'

profits come from overseas. Higher oil is bad for every company except energy companies and they are only 10% of market capitalization or so. I really don't get the lack of reaction to the rise in oil.

[54anickel]

90. Global finance chiefs weigh bigger IMF role

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N21242038.htm

WASHINGTON, April 21 (Reuters) - World finance leaders met on Friday to mull reforms for the International Monetary Fund that would give the lender more clout over global imbalances that rich nations so far have been unwilling or unable to unwind themselves.

The fund hosted global economic policy-makers at a meeting to discuss solutions for worrying world trade distortions on Friday morning, ahead of an afternoon gathering of Group of Seven finance chiefs.

Although some economists believe the distorted trade map can return to balance without economic upheaval, there is a growing sense time to find a solution is growing short.

Sources said IMF Managing Director Rodrigo Rato was determined to persuade G7 finance chiefs that reforms at the global lender -- giving key emerging countries more voice and expanding the IMF's position as dispenser of world policy advice -- went hand-in-glove with a deal on fixing imbalances.

But there already were signs of some unease among G7 core members over handing the IMF an expanded role. The United States is ready to cede some voting power and have the Fund oversee currency polices but some European nations seem more doubtful about doing so.

more...

[UpInArms]

93. 2:26 EST now only the DOW is clinging to gains

Dow 11,356.09 +13.20 (+0.12%)
Nasdaq 2,346.07 -16.48 (-0.70%)
S&P 500 1,311.28 -0.18 (-0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 5.029 -0.10 (-0.20%)

NYSE Volume 1,631,661,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,618,186,000

2:00 pm : Little changed over the last two hours as the major averages continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges. The market's holding pattern has been further evidenced in the A/D line, as advancers on the NYSE hold an 18-to-13 advantage over decliners while both advancing and declining issues on the Nasdaq remain evenly matched. It is also worth noting that, even though the Nasdaq is off slightly, it's ability to hold support near a key technical level of 2353 despite a 1.4% pullback in semiconductor bodes well for overall sentiment and speaks volumes about Google's (GOOG 441.41 +26.41) impact on the market.DJ30 +36.34 NASDAQ -6.65 SP500 +3.17 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1493/1428/1.44 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1314/1885/1.08 bln

[UpInArms]

96. 2:37 EST Oops! Rally goes Bye-Bye

Dow 11,332.23 -10.66 (-0.09%)
Nasdaq 2,339.22 -23.33 (-0.99%)
S&P 500 1,307.91 -3.55 (-0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 5.023 -0.16 (-0.32%)

NYSE Volume 1,699,346,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,702,820,000

edited to add blather:

2:30 pm : Investors finally find a catalyst to break the market out of its tight trading range. Unfortunately for the bulls, oil's latest spike higher above $75 per barrel (+2.0%) in the final half hour of trade has renewed some concern that high gas prices heading into the summer driving season could begin to bite. The Dow still trades just above the unchanged mark but the S&P has slipped below the flat line and the Nasdaq has extended its reach into negative territory; all three of the indices are trading at their worst levels of the day. DJ30 +6.15 NASDAQ -19.11 SP500 -1.11 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1643/1324/1.63 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1386/1804/1.22 bln

[54anickel]

97. So they're just NOW noticing oil? Phfft! I don't think so. The blatherer

just aren't good at making this stuff up anymore...couldn't explain the rally when oil was climbing to $74 and that just makes this explanation of the drop that much harder to swallow. They need some new spinmeister blood.

[UpInArms]

98. the blathering bow-heads don't care if it makes any sense-

they think that so long as they punch out some crappola, no one will actually figure out they can't tell their arse from a hole in the ground. :evilgrin:

[RawMaterials]

107. No Its just nobody want to hold stocks for the weekend

DU everyone knows that :sarcasm:

[54anickel]

101. Not Your Father's Housing Market

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Schiff/apr212006.html

This week, as mortgage rates rose to their highest level in more than four years, real estate insiders reassured the public that higher interest rates would not hurt the housing market. Their claims were based on the fact that even though rates had risen, they never-the-less remain low in historic terms. While this may be true, it is completely irrelevant to today’s historically unprecedented real estate market.

Although current mortgage rates are still historically low, underlying mortgage balances certainly are not. Several years of artificially low interest rates, combined with lax lending standards and the get-rich-quick mindset, have resulted in homeowners assuming mortgage balances unprecedented in history, both in absolute terms and relative to their incomes. For most, such balances have been sustainable only as direct result of extremely low interest rates, and in many cases temporary teaser rates. Today’s stratospheric real estate prices cannot be maintained without these supports. As rock-bottom rates fade away, housing prices must return to earth.

For example, while historically a typical family may have been able to afford a 6.5% mortgage on a normal $250,000 mortgage, the same is certainly not true when applied to today’s completely abnormal $500,000 balances. The fact that rates may still be low in historic terms is irrelevant if mortgage balances are now twice their historic norms.

$250K considered "historically" normal? Wonder what part of the country he's from. That would have bought a huge joint here in WI 10-20 years ago.

more...

[mojavekid]

110. $250K would have bought you a nice house in Venice Beach, Ca. in 97'

...only 8 years ago.

This market is nuts. That same house would list for over $1.2 million today.

[54anickel]

106. IMF sees role for self in Latin America amid growth

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-21T175631Z_01_N21201689_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-IMF-LATAM-UPDATE-1.XML

snip>

The new IMF role in Latin America, a region with the world's largest gap between rich and poor, is one of a consultant to governments pursuing reforms, he added.

But many Latin American leaders and presidential hopefuls would like to argue the contrary, with several election campaigns this year highly critical of previous IMF prescriptions.

In some countries, IMF advice has been ignored or its advice taken piecemeal. Venezuela and Argentina stand out in this respect with inflation rates forecast around 12 percent this year compared with the regional average of about 6 percent.

Singh sidestepped the apparent snub, arguing those governments want low inflation and commending Argentina for its tight fiscal policy, but his department's report criticized Buenos Aires' low interest rates -- a key culprit behind rising prices.

Meanwhile, the IMF has insufficient data to advise Venezuela on its use of oil revenues, which are benefitting from high oil prices, for poverty reduction programs, Singh said.

more...

[Roland99]

108. Aren't Latin American countries finding ways to tell the IMF to F-Off?

[54anickel]

111. Yes, but they are trying to do it as politely as possible these days.

http://towardfreedom.com/home/content/view/794/


snip>

Bucking the IMF in Argentina: In 2003 the left-leaning Néstor Kirchner took office in Argentina in the aftermath of the 2001 collapse of the country's economy and the popular uprisings that forced several successive governments from power. The neoliberal policies supported by the IMF and implemented by President Carlos Menem in the 1990s were widely seen as responsible for the collapse. Since then, Argentina has set an important example by breaking with the IMF and playing hardball with international creditors.

The country made a credible threat of defaulting on its payments to the IMF-something previously unheard of for middle-income countries. In response the IMF backed away from demands for austerity and higher interest rates. It did so for fear that other countries would follow Argentina in defaulting. The exchange shook the international standing of the IMF and allowed Argentina to finalize a renegotiation of over $100 billion in foreign debt in 2005. The renegotiation drastically reduced the value of the country's outstanding obligations to private creditors. Moreover, Argentina's stance against the IMF has allowed the country to base its economic recovery on policies that, while not venturing far to the left of the standard Keynesian playbook, run contrary to those preferred by Washington. Beyond economic policy, Kirchner has supported the repeal of amnesty laws protecting military officers. This action has helped open a large number of legal cases against human rights abusers from Argentina's past military government.

Still, tensions remain between Kirchner's government and forces like the piqueteros (the unemployed workers' movement). Such movements accuse the president of using radical or nationalistic posturing to cover more conservative policy decisions. One illustration of this conflict came with Kirchner's announcement in December that the government (following a similar move by Brazil) would "un-indebt" Argentina by paying off $9.8 billion to the IMF. Citing the pain that the financial institution has caused to the country's people, Kirchner framed the move as a decision to be rid of the IMF and its odious policy recommendations for good. However, as the Darío Santillán Popular Front, a piquetero organization, pointed out, the move amounted to a full debt repayment, rather than a renunciation. "Despite the progressive rhetoric, the debt is paid off with the hunger of the people," the group said in a statement cited by the Inter-Press Service. Ultimately, the relevance of the decision as a model for other progressive governments will depend on the Kirchner government's ability to use its newfound freedom from the IMF to chart an increasingly independent economic course.

snip>

Between corruption and policy failures, some observers have aptly dubbed 2005 a Year of Innocence Lost in Brazil. At the 2005 World Social Forum, Venezuela's Hugo Chávez counseled Lula's critics to be patient and allow the PT government more time to assert its independence from the Washington Consensus. A year later, with Lula's popularity sagging and elections in the fall drawing nearer, time may be running out.

Venezuela as protagonist: Much of the progressive leadership expected from Lula when he was first elected has ended up coming from Venezuela's Hugo Chávez, who has established himself as the White House's key adversary in the region. Unlike other countries in which popular upheavals and established social movement organizations have helped to put new governments in power, Chávez has largely used the state as the starting point for directing a Bolivarian Revolution, which has subsequently developed popular dimensions. In the past two years, the shape of this revolution has come into focus as the Venezuelan economy has recovered from several rounds of oil strikes and the instability of a U.S.-supported coup in 2002.

While Chávez is often cast in the mold of Fidel Castro, several observers have noted that the redistributionist programs that are the hallmark of his social policy owe more to the New Deal than to Cuban state socialism. The many government programs that have been funded in recent years by proceeds from oil sales include an ambitious literacy program, free public education through the university level, job training, an anti-hunger program that provides subsidized food for over a third of the country, and an extensive system of free public health clinics. Chávez's decidedly un-neoliberal economic policy has created the most robust growth in the hemisphere, with the country's GDP surging 18 percent in 2004 and approximately 9 percent in 2005.

more...

[Roland99]

112. Nice read, thanks. More detailed than one I read a couple weeks ago.

[ozymandius]

109. Ending with a whimper-

Dow 11,347.45 +4.56 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,342.86 -19.69 (-0.83%)
S&P 500 1,311.28 -0.18 (-0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 50.12 -0.27 (-0.54%)
NYSE Volume 2,388,139,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,366,417,000

4:20 pm : The major averages closed in split fashion for the second day in a row as investors weighed a 2.1% surge in oil prices to record highs against more optimism on the earnings front among notable blue chips.

The market opened modestly higher as investors sifted through another batch of better than expected earnings. Heading the list of noteworthy names keeping the S&P 500 on pace for its 11th straight quarter of double-digit profit growth was Google (GOOG 439.31 +24.31), which posted a 60% year/year jump in Q1 earnings. Dow component 3M (MMM 85.17 +2.57) was another source of early support after it beat forecasts by a penny and raised its FY06 outlook. Approximately 70% of the S&P 500 companies out with earnings so far have exceeded Wall Street's expectations.

Be that as it may, blue chip gains faded into the close as pre-weekend worries surfaced and added to escalating concerns that oil supplies may shrink due to geopolitical issues in Iran and Nigeria, lifting crude futures to another historic high. The June contract spiked higher in the last half hour of trade before closing up 2.1% at a record $75.21 per barrel ($1.52), renewing concerns that high gas prices heading into the summer driving season may crimp discretionary spending. Even though the Dow closed in positive territory, its paltry 0.04% gain would not have been possible without 3M's 3% surge and ExxonMobil (XOM 65.00 +1.08) closing near its best level of the day as a result of record oil.

With regard to sector strength and weakness, Technology turned in the day's worst performer despite Google's 5.6% surge, as evidenced by the Nasdaq erasing roughly half of its weekly gain. Chip maker Broadcom (BRCM 43.73 -2.04) nearly doubled its Q1 earnings, which plays into our Overweight rating on Technology; but investors used the good news as an excuse to lock in some of the stock's 46% year-to-date surge and take rival Marvel Technology Group (MRVL 57.49 -3.50) -- one of our suggested holdings -- down with it. The semiconductor group's 2.0% decline was accompanied by weakness in hardware, storage and communications equipment. Dell (DELL 26.95 -1.29) closed at a 52-week low after Citigroup downgraded the stock to Sell. Also weighing on the influential tech sector were earnings disappointments from SanDisk (SNDK 60.04 -5.50) and LM Ericsson (ERICY 35.32 -2.66).

Consumer Discretionary was the second worst performing sector, as an earnings disappointment from Ford (F 7.32 -0.63) erased much of yesterday's leadership from the auto group. Record high oil prices weighed heavily on retail while an analyst downgrade on MDC Holdings (MDC 59.53 -1.60) prevented homebuilding from taking advantage of falling bond yields. Even though there were no economic data scheduled today, bond traders squaring their positions ahead of the weekend helped knock the yield on the 10-yr note (+07/32) back to the 5.00% level.

Doing what they've done so well all year long, Energy and Materials were the day's best performing sectors but since they combine for only 12.9% of the weighting on the S&P, provided little leadership when it was all said and done. The two best performing sectors in 2006 extended their respective year-to-date gains of 18.1% and 13.0% amid further consolidation in the dollar, which recorded its biggest weekly loss against the euro in roughly a month. The major averages closed in split fashion for the second day in a row as investors weighed more optimism on the earnings front among notable blue chips against a surge in oil prices. The rate-sensitive Utilities sector also helped up nicely, finding some support from falling bond yields but getting an even bigger lift from an analyst upgrade on TXU Corp (TXU 52.43 +3.83).
BTK -1.4% DJ30 +4.56 DJTA -0.1% DJUA +0.6% DOT -0.8% NASDAQ -19.69 NQ100 -1.2% R2K -0.3% SOX -2.1% SP400 -0.2% SP500 -0.18 XOI +2.8% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1677/1366/2.35 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1544/1707/1.77 bln