STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 28 April

[ozymandius]

Friday April 28, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 997 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1954 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1654 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1615
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 27, 2006

Dow... 11,382.51 +28.02 (+0.25%)
Nasdaq... 2,344.95 +11.32 (+0.49%)
S&P 500... 1,309.72 +4.31 (+0.33%)
Gold future... 636.30 -5.70 (-0.90%)
30-Year Bond 5.18% +0.00 (+0.08%)
10-Yr Bond... 5.08% -0.02 (-0.41%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Chris Puplava

ENERGY ECONOMICS 101 - THE CULPRIT IS U.S.!

“In essence, companies with exploration and production operations are in a position analogous to that of a homeowner who bought a house in a popular area just before increased demand for housing caused real estate prices to escalate. The homeowner would not expect to sell the house based on the price paid for it, but rather based on what the house was worth in today’s market. Similarly, the fact that an oil company could profitably produce its crude oil at $30 per barrel does not mean that the firm should expect to sell its crude below what increased demand for crude oil has made it worth in the world market today. Indeed, even if a firm were inclined to sell at a price based solely on production costs (and not on supply and demand), that would not reduce crude oil prices. Rather, savvy oil traders would flock to buy the cheaply offered crude oil and then resell it at the higher market price.”

Source: Federal Trade Commission Report – “Gasoline Price Changes: the Dynamic of Supply, Demand, and Competition”

It seems that whenever gasoline hits $3 a gallon or Exxon-Mobil is releasing its earnings, politicians show how little they understand about global economics and simple supply and demand fundamentals and begin pointing fingers. Politicians are blaming the opposing party and oil companies instead of blaming the real culprits, their constituents and environmental laws and regulations making it hard for new refinery plants. The U.S. is the biggest user of crude oil, and with less than 5 percent of the world's population, consumes 25 percent of its oil. And American motorists refused to downsize their vehicle purchases when energy was cheap. Incremental demand increases coming from China and India, two of the fastest growing economies, are also contributing to rising demand for crude, pushing prices higher. Unlike Americans though, China and India use far less oil per capita.

-cut-

What Affects the Price of Gasoline?

The main component for the cost of gasoline is crude oil. Crude oil differs from most other commodities because it is subject to the restrictions of a cartel called OPEC (the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries). Other global factors contributing to high gasoline prices include instability in some key oil producing regions (Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, and Venezuela), bad weather (Hurricanes Katrina and Rita) and continued high demand (Chindia). The simplest economic driver for the price of crude oil is the balance between supply and demand. Reduced supply and increased demand for a product generally results in higher prices for that product, especially if it is a commodity.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

2. Morning Ozy - Great toon. I was teasing the owner of one of our local

gas stations that he should consider opening a pawn shop in the adjacent vacant space. Well, we now have the next best thing - an E-bay consignment outfit.
I'm not sure how that's going to work out - can't people sell stuff on E-bay themselves? I suppose for those who don't have a computer or the skills it might be handy, but who doesn't have some friend or relative that can help them out? :shrug:

Anyway, it's the second such E-bay outfit that I've noticed in my travels. The other is in a town about 8 miles away.

[ozymandius]

5. Good morning 54anickel!

:donut: My, you're up early.

That's a great suggestion for the gas station. I know that, down my way, pawn shops are doing a great business. Maybe the gas prices?

I have seen stakeouts at gas stations recently.

I was away frm the thread all day yesterday after my last post. What a strange feeling that was. We are triple-times busy at work. So much is happening that I ate lunch standing up. Today is another one of those days I'm afraid.

[54anickel]

7. TGIF for you then! Sounds like you could use a break.

Yes, it's early for me - another bout of insomnia - been up since 1:30. Too late to go back to bed now...maybe a cat nap this afternoon.

[ozymandius]

11. And you too.

1:30am - that hurts. I hope that everything is alright.

[54anickel]

15. Everything is alright - I just have these bouts once in a while. My mind

starts racing around a mile a minute and if I happen to wake in the middle of the night I just can't seem to get back to sleep. I think my "to-do" list has gotten away from me so I wind up "shouldin" on myself. ;-)

[AnneD]

36. Morning Marketeers,

:donut:and lurkers. Funny thing, I suffer from insomnia every now and again. I know I have episodes before school starts and during the last nmonth of school. Luckily I don't have an internet connection at home so I can't stay on the computer. I just do some work til I get sleepy then oversleep and am late for work:evilgrin:

Hubby finally sold the motercycles (thank you Jesus). Some of the money will pay some bills but we are looking at buying a matress. Any suggestions as to your favs. I tend to generate heat when I sleep and Hubby, being from India tends to like. He can also sleep on concrete but I prefer softer bedding. I would appreciate any input on favourite mattress and why they work for you. Also do you use a topper (foam, etc). Any info is appreciated.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.....

[RawMaterials]

39. our bed is an OMF

Bought a queen bed from the mattress factory 3 years ago, the orthopedic with a pillow soft top. it was around 700 it has been great. My parents come down to visit and they sleep in our bed (we take the couch) they love it. I also generate lots of heat when i sleep and i like the bed. A good bed might just be one of the best investments to make, since you sleep 1/3 of your life.

[54anickel]

46. Can't be much help on that one - we're still using a waterbed, though

we have started shopping for a regular matress. There's one we're pretty set on, but I couldn't tell you what it is. It does have some sort of foam topper. We've got to build a new base before we can get one anyway. I'm spoiled with the under the bed storage pedestal. Haven't found one that I like (that doesn't cost a freakin' fortune) so we're going to build one. Changing the bedding on the waterbed is getting too hard on my back in my "old age". Then again, maybe it's the waterbed that's giving me a weak back to begin with?

[AnneD]

76. I like the comfort

of the Temprapedic but worry about it being too hot for me. Hubby doesn't like them at all (remember-he can sleep on concrete). I was thinking of a foam top. One store had a mattress that was one side firm one side soft on the other. It seemed to be a good idea. And it was reasonable. We have a store here called the Dump and they are open Fri, Sat, and Sun only. I haven't checked them out but they have rock bottom priced (like a liquidation clearance place). They had a great mattress sale 3 weeks ago. Of course getting hubby out mattress shopping is like pulling teeth without Novocaine. }(

[54anickel]

84. We look at those, but I thought they would be hot too and I

sort of felt "stuck" in a ravine after a while. Hubby didn't think s.e.x. would work out well in one either (one track mind). Sales guy actually confirmed his fear by saying it was one of the main reasons for returns - and hubby didn't even ask!! Bold sales guy.

The one we're looking at has some of that foam, but other support systems as well. Think it's a Serta - the one with the sheep? My sister got one of those adjustable air types - was really expensive I guess, but they love it. I did get one of those tempur-pedic neck pillows. Thought it would help me keep my arm out from under my head (was having problems with arm/hand numb all day). It did the trick, but it's so dense - I wake up with a headache - should have gone for the smallest size. I switch between that and my regular pillow. Man, if you're a side sleeper you'd think you went deaf in the one ear!

[ozymandius]

3. Today's Reports-a-plenty

8:30 AM Chain Deflator-Adv. Q1
Briefing Forecast 2.8%
Market Expects 2.7%
Prior 3.5%

8:30 AM Employment Cost Index Q1
Briefing Forecast 0.9%
Market Expects 0.9%
Prior 0.8%

8:30 AM GDP-Adv. Q1
Briefing Forecast 4.7%
Market Expects 4.9%
Prior 1.7%

9:50 AM Mich Sentiment-Rev. Apr
Briefing Forecast 89.2
Market Expects 89.0
Prior 89.2

10:00 AM Chicago PMI Apr
Briefing Forecast 58.5
Market Expects 58.0
Prior 60.4

[UpInArms]

28. 8:30 Reports tumbling in:

8:29 AM ET 4/28/06 U.S. Q1 EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX LOWEST SINCE Q1 '99

8:29 AM ET 4/28/06 U.S. Q1 EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX UP 0.6% VS 0.9% EXPECTED

8:30 AM ET 4/28/06 U.S. Q1 CHANGE IN INVENTORIES SUBTRACTS 0.5% FROM GROWTH

8:30 AM ET 4/28/06 U.S. Q1 RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT UP 2.6%

8:30 AM ET 4/28/06 U.S. Q1 CONSUMER DURABLES UP 20.6%

8:30 AM ET 4/28/06 U.S. Q1 EQUPMENT AND SOFTWARE INVESTMENTS UP 16.4%

8:30 AM ET 4/28/06 U.S. Q1 BUSINESS INVESTMENT UP 14.3%, MOST IN 6 YEARS

8:30 AM ET 4/28/06 U.S. Q1 CONSUMER SPENDING UP 5.5%

8:30 AM ET 4/28/06 U.S. Q1 FINAL SALES RISE 5.4%

8:30 AM ET 4/28/06 U.S.CORE INFLATION UP 1.9% YEAR-OVER-YEAR

8:30 AM ET 4/28/06 U.S. Q1 CORE INFLATION RISES 2%

8:30 AM ET 4/28/06 U.S. Q1 GDP FASTEST SINCE Q3 2003

8:30 AM ET 4/28/06 U.S. Q1 GDP UP 4.8% VS. 4.9% EXPECTED

[UpInArms]

29. U.S. GDP rises 4.8% in first quarter, as expected

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BDD7DDF2B%2D90BF%2D47D7%2DBF62%2DF8C1B54F94DC%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy snapped back in the first quarter, growing at an annual rate of 4.8%, the fastest growth in more than two years, the Commerce Department said Friday. The increase in the nation's real gross domestic product was close to expectations of a gain of 4.9%. The economy has grown 3.5% in the past four quarters. The improvement was widespread. Business investment increased at a 14.3% rate, the fastest in six years. Consumer spending increased 5.5%, the most since 2003, led by a rebound in auto sales. Final sales increased 5.4%. The core consumer price index retreated to a 2% annual rate from 2.4%, pushing the year-over-year gain down to 1.9%.

[UpInArms]

30. U.S. Q1 employment costs up 0.6%, lowest since Q1 '99

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B72B9FDA6%2D105E%2D4B44%2D923A%2DE6B7A9BFFBDC%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. employment costs increased 0.6% in the first quarter after a 0.8% gain in the fourth quarter, the Labor Department reported Friday. This was the smallest increase since the first quarter of 1999. The increase in the employment cost index was less than expected. Economists were forecasting a 0.9% gain in employment costs, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. Benefit costs rose 0.5% in the quarter, while wages and salaries rose 0.7%. Over the past year, employment costs have increased 2.8%, down from 3.1% in the fourth quarter. Wages and salary costs have increased 2.7% in the past year, while benefit costs increased 3.4%.

[UpInArms]

64. U.S. quarterly employment costs at lowest in seven years

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B31434FB5%2DFA93%2D41C4%2D8E55%2D2E3DEFEF5FB1%7D&symbol=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- There was little evidence in the first quarter of labor-cost pressures that could fuel inflation, according to a Labor Department report released Friday.

The employment cost index, considered one of the best gauges for tracking labor-cost pressures, moderated in the first quarter to a 0.6% increase, down from a 0.8% pace in the last three months of 2005.

This marked the smallest quarterly increase in employment costs in seven years. Read full government release.

Economists had been forecasting a 0.9% increase in employment costs in the first quarter. See Economic Calendar.

Economists said the data would be welcome at the Federal Reserve.

"On the face of it these are very Fed-friendly numbers," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.

...more...

How convenient! Since the only inflation this corrupted Fed sees is "wage inflation". :eyes:

[Roland99]

69. Because people are being treated as worker/slaves while the robber barons

reap the rewards.

[UpInArms]

43. UMich April Consumer Sentiment @ 87.4 (maybe we're NOT so happy)

9:47 AM ET 4/28/06 UMICH APRIL CURRENT CONDITIONS 109.2 VS. 111.1

9:48 AM ET 4/28/06 UMICH APRIL EXPECTATIONS 73.4 VS. 75.1

9:46 AM ET 4/28/06 UMICH APRIL CONSUMER SENTIMENT 87.4

[UpInArms]

47. U.S. consumer sentiment falls in April

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-28T135147Z_01_N28415802_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-CONSUMERS-SENTIMENT-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, April 28 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment fell in April as concerns about higher gasoline prices overshadowed a buoyant stock market and strong job growth, a report showed on Friday.

The University of Michigan's final April index of consumer sentiment was 87.4, down from March's final reading of 88.9 and April's preliminary reading of 89.2, said sources who saw the subscription-only report.

The median forecast of Wall Street economists polled by Reuters was for a 89.0 reading, according to a poll of 53 economists.

The survey's index of current conditions edged up to 109.2 in April from 109.1 in March, while consumer expectations fell to 73.4 from 76.0.

...more...

[UpInArms]

58. US consumer mood sours in April; gas prices weigh

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-28T142553Z_01_N28226547_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-CONSUMERS-SENTIMENT-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, April 28 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment fell in April as concerns about higher gasoline prices overshadowed a buoyant stock market and strong job growth, a report showed on Friday.

The University of Michigan's final index of consumer sentiment for April was 87.4, down from March's final reading of 88.9 and April's preliminary reading of 89.2, said sources who saw the subscription-only report.

"Sentiment is finally beginning to show that consumers are getting a little bit unnerved about higher gasoline prices," said Brian Fabbri, chief economist at BNP Paribas in New York.

"Clearly there's been surprisingly strong (economic reports) in terms of GDP, employment, even the surveys that have come out of the Conference Board with respect to purchases in the future," he added.

<snip>

"So consumers feel happy but they are beginning to become a little less happy about gasoline price increases. This is not a big move in confidence but it does say that confidence is probably leveling off and would probably continue to do so while gasoline prices go up," Fabbri said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

49. U.S. April Chicago purchasing managers index falls to 57.2%

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B4BDBCEA3%2D4936%2D404D%2D94B1%2DB00C1348C12C%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Business activity in the Chicago region grew at a slower pace in April, according to a survey of busineses released Friday. The Chicago purchasing managers index fell to 57.2% in April from 60.4% in March. Readings over 50% indicate most firms are expanding. Economists expected the index to fall to 58.7% in April, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. The new orders index fell to 60.8% from 62.2%. The prices paid index rose to 77.2% from 62.2%.

[UpInArms]

54. Prices paid increase while job growth falters

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B49AA1947%2D1675%2D4C9C%2DADE7%2DF14900C7F45F%7D&symbol=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Business activity in the Chicago region grew at a slower pace in April, according to a survey of businesses released Friday.

The Chicago purchasing managers index fell to 57.2% in April from 60.4% in March.
Readings over 50% indicate most firms are expanding.

Economists expected the index to fall to 58.7% in April, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.

The new orders index fell to 60.8% from 62.2%.

The prices paid index rose to 77.2% from 71.1%. It's the highest since December.

The employment index moved below 50% to 47.2%, indicating most firms are not adding jobs.

...more...

[UpInArms]

59. Chain Deflator @ 3.3% (market expected 2.7%)

from the 9:40 blather:

Q1 chain deflator rising a larger than expected 3.3% raising modest inflation concerns

[54anickel]

4. Second Thoughts in Congress on Oil Tax Breaks

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/27/business/27oil.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

WASHINGTON, April 26 — As anxiety spread in Congress on Wednesday over soaring oil prices, lawmakers in both parties said they were ready to take a tough look at oil and gas incentives they passed as recently as eight months ago.

snip>

Democrats called for a 60-day halt on collecting federal gasoline taxes, which are 18.4 cents a gallon, but they were openly split about the more radical step of imposing a windfall profits tax on major oil companies. For their part, many Republicans are torn between wanting to show their sympathy for consumers and maintaining their longstanding support for the oil industry. :dilemma: (That smilie should be bouncing between a voter's ballot and a dollar sign)

snip>

Mr. Bush also called for repealing several hundred million dollars in subsidies, also in the energy bill, for an industry-run deepwater drilling research center in Sugar Land, Tex. That project's biggest champion was Representative Tom DeLay, the former House majority leader whose district includes Sugar Land.

snip>

Many Democrats had opposed the new tax breaks all along, and Senate Democrats pushed for a provision that would trim them in a broader tax bill that the Senate passed last fall. But that provision was not approved by the House.

On Wednesday, leading Republicans made it clear they were now willing and even eager to eliminate some of those tax breaks.

snip>

But Republican lawmakers want to combine their seemingly tough new stance with measures to increase production. High on the list is a new attempt to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to exploration.

more...

[ozymandius]

6. Oil Prices Drop to $70.79 a Barrel

SINGAPORE - Crude futures fell Friday after China announced an interest rate hike as it sought to cool its economic growth, and as the World Bank tentatively resolved a dispute with Chad, which had threatened to shut off an oil pipeline.

-cut-

Traders speculated that Chinese oil demand might slow after that nation's central bank said it would raise benchmark one-year lending rates to 5.85 percent from 5.58 percent, a move aimed at cooling the overheated economy. China is the world's second-largest oil consumer after the U.S.

Also helping to cool prices slightly was the easing of worries about U.S. gasoline supplies ahead of the peak summer-driving season.

Those worries abated somewhat after the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported a sharp recovery in American refinery operations and U.S.
President George W. Bush directed the Environmental Protection Agency to grant fuel requirement waivers to states experiencing spot shortages amid a transition to a new blend of motor fuel.

more

[ozymandius]

8. Iran to Invest $600M in Indonesian Fuels

JAKARTA, Indonesia - Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will sign $600 million in investments in Indonesia's gas and oil sector during a state visit next month, a Foreign Ministry spokesman said Friday.

"Iran wants to invest $200 million to fix offshore refinery platforms in Indonesia and also to invest $400 million in building a gas pipeline from South Sumatra to Batam," Yuri Thamrin said at a press briefing.

The pipeline would have to be at least 250 miles long to connect South Sumatra, as one of Indonesia's gas rich provinces, with Batam industrial island, which is located just 10 miles from Singapore, the region's shipping hub.

more

[ozymandius]

9. Q&A: What's Behind High Gas Prices?

NPR.org, April 27, 2006 ·

With average prices at the pump approaching $3 a gallon, filling up is causing American consumers increasing pain in the pocketbook. A look at the issues surrounding high gas prices:

What factors are causing gas prices to rise so quickly?

The biggest factor in rising costs is the price of crude oil, followed by the cost of refining.

If a gallon of gasoline costs $2.90 (this week's average, according to the Energy Department), crude oil accounts for about $1.60. The cost of crude oil on the futures market has risen about 33 percent in the last year. This reflects supply problems in such places as Nigeria, Iraq and the Gulf of Mexico, as well as the threat of supply problems in Iran.

Refining costs add another 64 cents or so to a gallon of gasoline. Refining margins have increased from a few years ago, and are especially high this spring, because many refineries are currently shut down for seasonal maintenance. Refineries are still recovering from the effects of last year's hurricanes. And they are adjusting to more stringent low-sulfur fuel requirements and the phase-out of the gasoline additive MTBE.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5365439

[UpInArms]

33. Chevron's profit tops Wall Street view

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B8212414E%2D2430%2D4600%2D883C%2DA2EF949D7860%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Chevron Corp. rode a 32% rise in sales to a better-than-expected profit in the first quarter, benefiting from higher crude-oil prices and its acquisition of Unocal last summer.

Chairman and CEO Dave O'Reilly cited the performance of the company's upstream business, noting the strength of prices for crude oil and natural gas and an increase in oil-equivalent production of nearly 10%.

The company (CVX 59.98, -0.24, -0.4% ) reported first-quarter earnings of $4 billion, or $1.80 a share, up from a year-ago profit of $2.7 billion, or $1.28 a share. Sales for the three-month period jumped 32% to $53.52 billion from $40.49 billion.
Total revenue, including sales, income from equity affiliates and other income, totaled $54.62 billion, up from $41.6 billion in the same period a year earlier.

...more...



http://www.aztlan.net/oiltanker.htm

Condoleezza Rice was a Chevron Director from 1991 until January 15, 2001 when she was transferred by President George Bush Jr. to National Security Adviser. Previously she was Senior Director, Soviet Affairs, National Security Council, and Special Assistant to President George Bush Sr. from 1989 to 1991.

Another Chevron Corporation giant in the Bush administration is Vice President Dick Cheney. Vice President Cheney was Chairman and Chief Executive of Dallas based Halliburton Corporation, the world’s largest oil field services company with multi-billion dollar contracts with oil corporations including Chevron. Lawrence Eagleburger, a seasoned Bush counselor who held top State Department posts under George Bush Sr., is a director of Halliburton Corporation.

Halliburton's global network of investments includes projects in politically volatile areas including the Caspian Sea region. Dick Cheney was instrumental in negotiating a Caspian Sea pipeline for Chevron. The crude oil pipeline is a 900-mile project stretching from western Kazakhstan to the Black Sea that will primarily benefit Chevron by connecting the Tengiz oil field to the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk in Russia. Chevron, the largest oil company member of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, holds a 55 percent ownership interest with the Republic of Kazakhstan in Tengizchevroil. The 40-year, $20 billion joint-venture company was formed in 1993 to develop the Tengiz field. Tengiz is one of the world’s largest oil fields with 6 to 9 billion barrels of recoverable oil.

...more...

[ozymandius]

10. 39 million reasons why $3 gas may change America (opinion)

Just how big a deal is $3 gasoline? For those with six-figure household incomes it's an annoyance, but little more. Evian spring water goes about $6.80 a gallon when purchased in one-liter bottles.

For those in the tap-water brackets, the situation is a bit different. For many of the 39 million households making less than $30,000 a year, the difference between $2 gas and $3 gas is the difference between spending 10% of income on gas and 15%. In a word: Ouch!

It's hardly surprising, then, that politicians from President Bush on down to local legislators are popping up with quick-fix proposals. Bush's plan to suspend deposits into the National Petroleum Reserve and to push for more lenient pollution standards would have little impact. Just as useless are calls for a tax on oil company profits and the partisanfinger-pointing of many in Congress.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/editorials/2006-04-26-gas-changes_x.htm?csp=34

[54anickel]

14. My that wealth divide is quickly becoming a canyon...

In a society with acute differences of wealth, it's not hard to see other economic developments becoming political flashpoints. The surging cost of health care — and its unavailability to many — could easily trigger a hostile class fight. In many areas, housing costs are creating a wealth divide between those who own and those who can no longer afford to buy in. And, in the long run, the unsustainable amounts of money the government spends on retirees could trigger more generational resentment than sound policy discussion could.

Demagogic politics go hand-in-hand with class division. And those divisions are bad and getting worse. According to a Federal Reserve study last month, the 56 million households that make up the bottom half of the economic ladder owns just 2.6% of the nation's wealth. That's down from 3.6% a decade ago. The top 10%, meanwhile, accounts for almost 70% of the wealth.

[54anickel]

17. China Eyeing Cuba Offshore Oil

I caught part of a report on this on Lou Dobbs last night. Strange, I went to try and find some news articles on it and all I can find are a couple of RW rags belly aching.

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2006/4/27/224539.shtml

China, which he said is the world's second-largest user of petroleum products "is using this area off our coast, and in Cuban national waters, as a strategic commodities reserve. It is doing this by acquiring exclusive rights in the emerging Cuban offshore oil sector -- thereby forever closing the door on those resources to the U.S. industry and drastically impacting our foreign policy in the region."

According to the Bush administration's "National Security Strategy," China is "expanding trade, but acting as if they can somehow lock up energy supplies around the world or seek to direct markets rather than opening them up."

A shocking report aired on the Lou Dobbs show Thursday night revealed that Cuba has not only allowed China to drill but also to service an old Soviet refinery in Cuba while U.S. companies are locked out of the game. The Dobbs report also revealed that Venezuela's Castroite president, Hugo Chavez, has offered Chinese oil firms operating rights in his country.

Craig wants to introduce legislation that will allow the United States to operate in these waters off our southern coast, adding that we cannot allow China to lock up a potentially lucrative oil supply for life in our own backyard. Bwahahahaha!

more...

[54anickel]

20. Putin Talks of Sending Oil to Asia, Not Europe

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/27/business/worldbusiness/27energy.html?adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1146224027-b9pyDmZTOAwiLthj7phDVA

MOSCOW, April 26 — President Vladimir V. Putin said Wednesday that Russia should direct future oil and natural gas exports to Asia because "unprincipled competition" had blocked its energy companies from expanding elsewhere.

With the bold warning that Russia has other export options, Mr. Putin waded into a debate in Europe over the plans of Gazprom, the natural gas monopoly, which is trying to enter the retail gas market.

Mr. Putin couched his words in a discussion of a new Siberian pipeline to ship oil to China, Japan and other Pacific Rim markets. He spoke before a meeting on energy issues with Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany in the Siberian city of Tomsk.

This week, the Russian oil pipeline operator Transneft said that it would break ground on Friday on a 1,400-mile pipeline from eastern Siberia to the Pacific Ocean. The pipeline, which will be able to carry 1.5 million barrels a day, could divert exports to Asia that now go to Europe.

The swagger in Mr. Putin's remark suggests his government believes it now has a strong negotiating hand with Europe on energy issues.

more...

[54anickel]

41. Oil rises above $71 before UN report on Iran

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/060428/markets_oil.html?.v=4

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil climbed above $71 on Friday before the world's nuclear watchdog was expected to confirm Iran has flouted demands to stop enriching uranium, renewing worries about threats to oil supply.

Iran's president said on Friday his country would pay no attention to international calls to halt its nuclear work, hours before the UN atomic watchdog reports on whether Tehran has met UN Security Council demands.

"For now, I'm not expecting prices to break below $70," said Alexander Kervinio, an analyst at SG CIB Commodities in Paris. "We still have the geopolitical tensions supporting prices."

snip>

Mohamed ElBaradei, chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), is expected to tell the UN Security Council and the agency's board on Friday that Iran has not stopped enriching uranium or fully answered IAEA queries.

Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said his country would ignore calls to halt its nuclear work. The West accuses Iran of seeking nuclear bombs, a claim that Iran denies.

"Those who want to prevent Iranians from obtaining their right should know that we do not give a damn about such resolutions," Ahmadinejad told a rally in northwest Iran, the official IRNA news agency reported.

more...

[UpInArms]

53. June Crude @ $71.55 bbl - June NatGas @ $6.82 mln btus

10:11 AM ET 4/28/06 JUNE CRUDE UP 58C TO $71.55/BRL AFTER THURSDAY'S 2-WEEK LOW

10:11 AM ET 4/28/06 JUNE NATURAL GAS CLIMBS 1.5C TO $6.82/MLN BTUS

[silverlib]

57. The bourse is back...news from yesterday

This was posted by stillcool47 yesterday, and I think there may have been another relative post. The news of the postponement in March was vague and I wonder/worry just how serious this could be if it happens.

2006/04/26
Iran's oil stock exchange, next week
07:47:57 È.Ù

Tehran, April 26 - Oil Minister Kazem Vaziri Hamaneh said on Wednesday that the establishment of Oil Stock Exchange is in its final stage and the bourse will be launched in Iran in the next week.



He rejected a statement attributed to him saying that Oil Stock Exchange will bring to the ground the US economy and said, "I don't know who has speculated that I've not talked about US economy." Asked about conference on energy in Doha, he said that more than 60 countries and 30 oil companies and consultants took part in the conference.



Asked about the oil price rise, Vaziri-Hamaneh said that oil price is being influenced by political situation, whereas it should be freed from political impacts and economic and technical fundamentals should determine the oil prices.
"As long as political impacts dominate the oil market, price hike will continue," he concluded


http://www.iribnews.ir/Full_en.asp?news_id=212013&n=32

[54anickel]

73. U.S. Reaches Out to Some Oil-Rich Nations

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060427/ap_on_go_pr_wh/oil_allies

WASHINGTON - Searching for energy supplies and allies against Iran, the Bush administration is reaching out to leaders who rule countries that are rich in oil and gas but accused of authoritarian rule and human rights violations.

The presidents of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Equatorial Guinea are all getting special attention. The effort sometimes seems at odds with President Bush's stated second-term goal of spreading democracy.

"If those countries were not oil producers, we would probably not be meeting with their leaders," said Michael O'Hanlon, a foreign policy analyst with the Brookings Institution. "There is some tension with Bush's democracy-promotion agenda. They are pulling in different directions."

Bush meets Friday at the White House with the president of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliev. Vice President Dick Cheney next week visits the central Asian nation of Kazakhstan and its leader President Nursultan Nazarbayev.

Human rights groups have criticized both leaders. But the two former Soviet republics are allies in the war on terrorism and both have significant energy reserves.

more...

[UpInArms]

82. June Crude closes @ $71.88 bbl - June NatGas @ $6.555 mln btus

3:00 PM ET 4/28/06 JUNE NATURAL GAS CLOSES AT A MORE THAN1-YEAR LOW

3:00 PM ET 4/28/06 JUNE NATURAL GAS DOWN 25C, OR 3.7%, TO END AT $6.555/MLN BTU

3:00 PM ET 4/28/06 JUNE NATURAL GAS DOWN 11.7% FROM THE MONTH-AGO CLOSE

3:00 PM ET 4/28/06 JUNE CRUDE CLOSES AT $71.88/BRL, UP 91C, OR 1.3%

3:00 PM ET 4/28/06 JUNE CRUDE ENDS THE MONTH WITH A 5.8% GAIN

[ozymandius]

12. 30-Year Mortgage Rates Rise for 5th Week

WASHINGTON - Rates on 30-year mortgages rose for the fifth consecutive week, hitting their highest level in nearly four years, a nationwide survey of rates reported Thursday.

Mortgage giant Freddie Mac said rates on 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.58 percent this week, up from 6.53 percent last week.

The new rate was the highest since 30-mortgages stood at 6.63 percent the week of June 20, 2002.

The rise in mortgage rates was attributed to last week's surge in oil prices, which saw crude oil futures hit a record of $75.17 last Friday, and signs this week of stronger economic growth. Both of those developments raised worries about rising inflationary pressures.

more

[ozymandius]

13. Bernanke Says Fed May Pause, Not Necessarily Stop, Rate Raises

WASHINGTON - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress yesterday that he and his central bank colleagues may pause in the process of raising interest rates higher to restrain inflation, but that would not necessarily mean they were finished.

Stocks rallied and the dollar's value fell after financial market investors and analysts bet that the Fed is likely to rest after lifting its benchmark short-term rate at its next policymaking meeting May 10, after raising it steadily for nearly two years.

The Fed remains concerned about the inflationary risks it sees in high energy prices and rapid economic growth, but it might stop raising rates for a while to collect more information, Mr. Bernanke said in his first testimony to the congressional Joint Economic Committee since succeeding Alan Greenspan as Fed chairman in February.

"Even if in the (Fed)'s judgment the risks to its objectives are not entirely balanced, at some point in the future, the committee may decide to take no action at one or more meetings in the interest of allowing more time to receive information relevant to the outlook," Mr. Bernanke said.

http://www.nysun.com/article/31849

[54anickel]

19. Bernanke Bets His Reputation, Foreshadows Interest-Rate Pause

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a09tFf9ZE8po&refer=us

April 28 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is putting his reputation on the line by betting he can suspend interest-rate increases without prices spinning out of control.

In telegraphing to Congress a pause in the cycle of rate rises, Bernanke, 52, broke with predecessor Alan Greenspan's tendency to keep options open at turning points in policy. After nudging rates higher at every meeting for almost two years, the Fed is heeding an internal forecast that calls for growth to slow.

``He has gone with a very gutsy approach,'' said Brian Sack, senior economist at Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in Washington, who formerly worked in the Fed's Monetary Affairs strategy unit. ``They are going to do what they think is right based on their forecast.''

A wrong guess could lead to an acceleration in inflation and encourage firms to pass on rising energy costs to customers, eroding the credibility the Fed built under Greenspan and Paul Volcker. Prices paid by consumers rose 3.4 percent in March from a year ago, up from an average 2.6 percent since 2000.

``That's his risk right now,'' said William Ford, former president of the Atlanta Fed. ``You can go back to the 1970s, when Fed chairmen really blew it when we had the last energy crisis by pumping in money and letting inflation get out of hand. He has to be very careful not to do that, or to create the image of somebody doing that.''

more...

[UpInArms]

34. Fed worried on commercial real estate loans--Bies

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-28T130606Z_01_WAT005464_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-BIES-LENDING-URGENT.XML

RALEIGH, N.C., April 28 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Board Governor Susan Bies said on Friday the fast growth in commercial real estate lending by U.S. banks could lead to problems somewhere down the road.

"What you're seeing is the fastest growing types of loans on bank books are commercial real estate loans," Bies told a group of corporate risk managers in explaining why U.S. regulators had issued guidance on commercial real estate lending.

"The concentration today at banks of commercial real estate loans on the books relative to their capital is on average twice as high as it was in the '80s ... and we're just going into the part of the cycle that can build to a problem somewhere down the road," she said.

Ruh-roh!

The commercial loans that were cooked in the 80s had a dreadful consequence!

[UpInArms]

38. Printing Press Humming:Fed adds temporary bank reserves via weekend repos

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-28T133618Z_01_N28299259_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, April 28 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Friday that it added temporary reserves to the banking system via over-the-weekend repurchase agreements.

The benchmark fed funds rate last traded at 4.875 percent, above the Fed's 4.750 percent current target for the overnight lending rate on loans between banks.

Further details of the operations are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[54anickel]

16. China: Embrace the Competition

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=681

snip>

The US consumer has been the primary recipient of cheap Asian imports. US policy makers have fostered consumption through monetary and fiscal policies, i.e. through low interest rates and low taxes. US policies have accelerated Asia's growth; while the intent of US policies has been to foster US growth, there have been serious unintended consequences. Notably, the stimulating environment - also fostered by much of Asia subsidizing their exports through pegged, low exchange rates - has caused a shortage of commodities worldwide, high commodity prices, and low consumer goods prices. Corporate America, faced with high commodity prices and an inability to pass on higher costs, had to accelerate its outsourcing to retain margins. The pressures have directly contributed to disappointing job and real wage growth. As we have pushed growth while dismantling the US manufacturing sector, the US current account deficit has exploded to over $800 billion in 2005 or more than 6% of gross domestic product ("GDP"); foreigners need to finance the current account deficit at a rate of over $2 billion every day, just to keep the dollar from falling.

In Europe, consumers have increased savings in recent years as they were reluctant to spend in a challenging economic environment. Asia is knocking on the doors of European consumers, and corporate Europe is feeling the pinch. Whereas the US economy is known for its flexibility, Europe is known for its rigidity. Corporate Europe is unable to adjust quickly enough to effectively compete with China. Many Europeans believe it is impossible to compete with "low cost China" and that protectionist measures must be taken to "preserve" European culture. The recent protests by French students reflect a fear many Europeans share that they don't want to give up the many social benefits - including job security. Europeans see China as a threat to their culture, they are scared they will have to adopt a Chinese lifestyle.

It is time to get rid of a myth: China is NOT a low cost country. China is a low wage country, but producers in China also face high raw material prices like the rest of the world; many regions in China face high transportation costs; the still under-developed infrastructure in much of China increases the cost of doing business; the regulatory/bureaucratic environment provides costs and challenges to producers. And notably, competition within China is cutthroat. It is not merely that the Chinese seem to be competitive by nature, but pro-growth policies ranging from pegging the Chinese yuan to the dollar to easy access to loans and other government policies have created too many businesses chasing each and every opportunity.

snip>

The way to respond to such a competitive challenge is to learn and adjust your own way of doing business. That does not mean Americans and Europeans have to work at Chinese wages. The US has the great advantage that it has a highly flexible economy. Unfortunately, well intended, but ill guided policies have pushed the US economy towards consumption and debt rather than investments. The US is now in such a weak position that no policy maker dares to call for changes that foster savings and investments rather than consumption; such policies may induce a severe recession in the short term. Yet it is precisely the medicine the US needs if it wants to prevent the risk of ever increasing pressure on the dollar as the current account deficit escalates. The rise of gold and dollar weakness over the past couple of years are warning signs of what may come should there not be a change in policies. Given the high consistency in fiscal and monetary policies in the US, we have little faith that such policies will be instituted.

snip>

As Asia is getting more ambitious, and the fallout in the US and Europe more pronounced, we are afraid protectionism may reign at the end of the day as the standard of living in the West is under pressure. In the US, the risk is that protectionist measures may scare away capital - capital needed to finance the current account deficit and to keep the dollar from falling. In Europe, protectionist measures will further discourage reform, further worsening its competitive position.

more...

Looks like the little guy just needs to suck it up a bit more. He makes some good points, but fails to recognize the wealth divide that is happening as well. Sacrifice can't continually be expected only of the low and middle class. Like anything different is going to happen :eyes: Beat 'cha to the bottom!!!

[54anickel]

18. China Raises Rates to Slow Its Economy

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/28/business/worldbusiness/28yuan.html

snip>

The action aims to slow a spectacular surge in investment and it may potentially brake China's voracious appetite on world markets for oil and other commodities.

With interest rates already climbing in the United States and the European Union, and with monetary officials starting to tighten policy in Japan, China seems to be joining the world's central bankers in trying to gain control of speculation that has driven up prices of assets like gold and real estate.

snip>

China's boom in lending and investment, which has contributed to the country's rapidly rising exports, pushed growth in China's economy to 10.2 percent in the first quarter. That was high even by China's extraordinary standards, and so strong that President Hu Jintao himself warned on April 16 that the country needed efficient, high-quality development and not "excessively rapid economic growth."

snip>

The effectiveness of somewhat higher interest rates in slowing growth, however, remains to be seen. The People's Bank of China, the central bank, said that it was raising the benchmark lending rates on one-year loans by 27-hundredths of a percentage point, to 5.85 percent. It was the same size increase as on Oct. 28, 2004, the last time China raised rates. That increase was the first in nine years.

snip>

But the central bank did not change bank deposit rates. By raising lending rates while leaving deposit rates untouched, the government will allow banks to widen their profit margins to cover losses on loan defaults.

Moreover, by isolating deposit rates, China's move is unlikely to address calls by industrialized countries, including the Group of 7 last weekend, for China's currency to gain in value. One-year bank deposits earn just 2.25 percent in China, and leaving that rate unchanged makes it slightly less attractive for foreign investors to pump money into China and therefore bid up the value of the yuan, the Chinese currency.

Low deposit rates also encourage Chinese consumers to spend more, a government goal, rather than save....

more...

[UpInArms]

21. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

Last trade 86.59 Change -0.14 (-0.16%)

Dollar Collapses as Bernanke Talks of a Pause in Rates

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/Dollar_Collapses_as_Bernanke_Talks_1146171900039.html

On what was suppose to be a quiet day with little data, the US dollar took another beating as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke raised the possibility of a pause in the FOMC’s tightening cycle. This is as dovish as we could expect from the central bank at a time when inflationary pressures are indeed building and recent economic reports have been showing signs of growth. Furthermore, the Fed is acknowledging these upside risks by saying that even “if its objectives are not entirely balanced,” they may decide to “take no action at one or more meetings,” which is their way of saying that they may not be phased by the recent reports. It is quite clear that the cards are stacking higher and higher against the dollar’s favor and Bernanke’s latest comments may indeed be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. This is in line with our expectations for interest rates to be capped at 5 to 5.25 percent. We are already above the psychologically and technically important 1.25 level, which means that there is room for more strength. The persistence of the Fed has been the main factor that has kept dollar weakness against the Euro relatively tame compared to its weakness against the Yen, but now that they have for the first time introduced the possibility of a pause, we could see the support beams give way. Dollar bulls will now have to contend with the world calling for more strength in Asian currencies, reserve diversification, geopolitical risks and a possible end to the Fed’s tightening cycle. Such grave risks could scare many bulls out of the market even if we get a strong GDP report tomorrow. The market has already shrugged off many pieces of good data so we would not be surprised if it did the same for GDP, especially since it is commonly seen as a lagging indicator. We have been saying all week that the latest shift should not be taken lightly since it is a result of many different yet serious fundamental factors. Next week, we will have a lot more data to contend with including non-farm payrolls and judging from Bernanke’s comments, the Fed will be watching the reports very closely to determine when this potential pause may come. Most analysts still believe that we will see a May rate hike, but the June interest rate hike is much more up in the air at this point. The only saving grace for the dollar against the Euro will probably come from the ECB. If the central bank becomes concerned about Euro strength and begins to talk down the Euro or delay further the need for continued rate hikes on their part, we could see a much needed retracement.

...more...

[54anickel]

22. Dollar Poised for Biggest Decline in 18 Months on Rate Gap

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=adgPMSWAuSqg&refer=us

April 28 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar is poised for its biggest monthly drop in a year-and-a-half against the euro and yen on speculation interest rates will rise faster in Europe and Japan than the U.S.

The dollar has slumped as Federal Reserve policy makers including Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled a pause in their 22- month cycle of rate increases. The Bank of Japan said today consumer prices will rise for the next two years, boosting the case for the first increase in borrowing costs for five years.

``There's a big appetite in the market to sell the dollar,'' said Daragh Maher, a currency strategist in London at Calyon, the securities unit of Credit Agricole SA. ``The Fed is already looking towards the end of rate increases and that removes a big support for the U.S.''

snip>

Rate Bets

In contrast, the European Central Bank has lifted its main rate twice since December to 2.5 percent. Interest-rate futures suggest the Frankfurt-based central bank will lift its benchmark three more times this year. The BOJ has kept its main interest rate near zero percent since 2001.

snip>

China yesterday unexpectedly lifted its key interest rate for the first time since October 2004 to prevent the economy from overheating. A strong yuan may boost Chinese imports of products from Japan, the nation's largest trading partner, boosting the yen. The yuan has gained 1.2 percent since a revaluation in July.

The dollar is also heading for its worst week against the yen since mid-March after the G-7 called for faster regional currency appreciation and a Japanese government report showed faster growth.

[54anickel]

27. China PBOC advisor warns forex reserves face US dollar risks - report

http://www.forextelevision.com/FT/AFX/ShowStory.jsp?seq=100892

BEIJING (AFX) - China's growing foreign exchange reserves, which are likely to hit one trln usd this year, face huge risks from a possible US dollar decline and China has to take urgent measures, a Chinese central bank monetary committee member said.

Yu Yongding, the only non-government member of the committee and an economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, was cited by the China Business News as saying that China's current management of the foreign exchange reserves, by investing heavily in US treasuries, is neither profitable nor safe.

"A large amount of China's foreign exchange reserves is in the form of US dollar assets, and any US dollar depreciation or US economy inflation could result in losses for China. We have to make preparations for that possibility as quickly as possible as a way to avoid such a bad scenario," said Yu.

In addition, Yu said China's heavy investment into US dollar treasuries is actually providing cheap funds for overseas investors, thus allowing foreign investors to have enough capital to re-invest in China.

"We are actually exporting capital to fulfill the saving-investment gap in the US, and we are sacrificing lucrative investment returns for low-yielding returns in US treasury bonds," said Yu.

more...

[UpInArms]

32. Dollar edges lower after Q1 GDP

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B236F28CC%2D7517%2D44DC%2DB57C%2DCFE997425CAF%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The dollar eased modestly against the euro and yen early Friday after data showed the U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product grew slightly below expectations and inflation moderated. The U.S. economy snapped back in the first quarter, growing at an annual rate of 4.8%, close to expectations of a gain of 4.9%. The core consumer price index retreated to a 2% annual rate from 2.4%. Separately, employment costs increased 0.6% in the first quarter. Economists were forecasting a 0.9% gain in employment costs. The euro was at $1.2555, up 0.2%, while the dollar was at 114.13, down 0.02%.

[Candide]

45. Will we see dollar-loonie parity soon?

Makes a guy think about taking up work up north and sending money back to his family in the states...ahhhh the American Dream

[UpInArms]

52. SnowJob spews a pile of lying bile

US's Snow says strong dollar policy still stands

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-28T140631Z_01_WAT005468_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-SNOW-DOLLAR-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, April 28 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Friday that the country's "strong dollar" policy remained intact, brushing aside analyst views that it is being abandoned to ease the country's massive trade deficit.

"No, that's our policy. It's good for America and it's policy that we continue to believe in," he told Bloomberg Television, when asked if the policy was being dropped.

[54anickel]

63. Deja vu? He really needs to come up with a new line. n/t

[54anickel]

70. I think I've found Snow's replacement - what a fool

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/ea70d974-d5db-11da-8b3a-0000779e2340.html

snip>

With Mr Bernanke also warning that the scale of the US current account meant there was a “small risk of a sudden shift in sentiment that could lead to disruptive changes in the value of the dollar”, the greenback tumbled 0.6 per cent to $1.2521 to the euro and 1 per cent to $1.8013 against sterling, both seven-month lows. It also fell 0.7 per cent to Y114.01 against the yen and 0.8 per cent to SFr1.2605 versus the Swiss franc, both three-month lows, and 0.4 per cent to C$1.1230 against the Canadian dollar, a 14-year low.

Not everyone was bearish on the dollar, however. Chris Towner, consultant at risk manager HIFX, advised dollar-buyers among his corporate clients to use this dollar weakness to start to over-hedge their exposure to the greenback.

Mr Towner believes superior US growth will allow the dollar to rally in the second half of 2006, hitting $1.15 to the euro, $1.70 against sterling and Y125-130 against the yen by the year-end.

[wordpix]

83. geez, the loony (Canadian) dollar is worth almost as much as the US dollar

I remember when it was nearly $1.40 Can. to $1 US

[UpInArms]

56. dollar still falling (now at 86.39)

Last trade 86.39 Change -0.34 (-0.39%)

Settle Time 15:03 Open 86.73

Previous Close 86.73 High 86.76

Low 86.35 2006-04-28 09:54:07, 30 min delay

[UpInArms]

62. Dollar sinks to 8-month euro low after weak data

So much for that "strong dollar policy" :eyes:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B091B3AF0%2DEC1F%2D45D7%2DB673%2D149BBC31B56D%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar weakened across the board Friday, hitting an almost eight-month low against the euro, after fresh economic data boosted speculation that the interest-rate differential between the U.S. and euro-zone will narrow soon.

A slew of economic reports on U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product growth, employment costs, consumer sentiment and business activity in the Chicago area, which all came in below forecasts, added to evidence that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its interest rate tightening cycle.

"The data, on balance, just reinforced dollar negativity at this point," said T.J. Marta, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

In New York trading, the euro was changing hands at $1.2573, up 0.3%, after earlier touching $1.2580, the highest level since Sept. 5, 2005. The dollar was down 0.2% at 113.95 yen. The British pound strengthened 0.6% to $1.8114, while the dollar was down 1% at 1.2465 Swiss francs.

"In general, the market seems to be in a sell dollar mode" after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony Thursday, said John McCarthy, director of foreign exchange trading at ING Capital Markets. "We believe that the Fed is about to be finished raising rates for the time being, while in the rest of the world, rates are going higher."

...more...

[Jemmons]

66. Wow - dollar just dropped to 1.261 agains the euro n/t

[UpInArms]

74. dollar teeters on the brink of the gaping maw

Last trade 86.02 Change -0.71 (-0.82%)

Settle Time 15:03 Open 86.73

Previous Close 86.73 High 86.76

Low 86.01 2006-04-28 12:08:49, 30 min delay

:wow: Don't ya just love that "strong dollar policy"!

[UpInArms]

77. Canadian dollar touches 28-year high versus US$ (since 1978)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-04-28T160255Z_01_N28199496_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-CANADA-DOLLAR-UPDATE-1.XML

TORONTO, April 28 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar hit its highest level in 28 years against the U.S. currency on Friday, helped by firm domestic economic growth data and expectations that U.S. interest rates are close to topping out.

The Canadian currency pushed past C$1.1193 to the U.S. dollar, or 89.34 U.S. cents, to its highest point since June 1978. It has risen more than 40 percent against the greenback in just under four years.

The last time the Canadian and U.S. dollars were at par was November 1976.

Statistics Canada said on Friday the economy grew 0.2 percent in February, matching forecasts and maintaining expectations that there will be at least one more interest-rate hike in Canada.

In the United States, first-quarter growth came in slightly below expectations, confirming the outlook that U.S. rates may not rise much more.

...more...

[UpInArms]

23. Laff-Riot for the Day: U.S. Economy Still Expanding at Rapid Pace

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/28/business/28econ.html?ei=5088&en=faa46c61ebbc072f&ex=1303876800&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&pagewanted=all

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

Gas prices are rising, as are mortgage rates. House prices in many once-hot markets have started slipping. The American automobile industry shows no sign of recovery. And the paychecks of most workers have not even kept up with inflation over the last four years.

Yet the national economy continues to speed ahead, with families and businesses spending money at an impressive pace. Forecasters expect the Commerce Department to report this morning that the economy grew at a rate of around 5 percent in the first quarter, the biggest increase since 2003.

The industries leading the way are ones that have been receiving far less attention than cars or real estate, though they have been adding thousands of new workers each month. In the last year, hospitals, doctors' offices and other health care employers have created almost 300,000 jobs; restaurants have added 230,000; and local governments — including schools — have added 170,000.

"The good news for the U.S. is that growth has diversified," said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight, an economic research firm. "We aren't just relying on the consumer and housing."

<snip>

A well-known index of consumer confidence has risen to its highest level in four years, according to the Conference Board, a research company in New York. In the most recent CBS News poll, conducted last month, 55 percent of respondents rated the economy as good, even though 66 percent of Americans said the country was on the wrong track.

In 23 years of polling by CBS, only once — in late 2005 — did a higher percentage of people say the country was on the wrong track.

...more...

[54anickel]

24. Attack Iran, destroy the US constitution

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HD26Ak01.html

During the 2004 election, President George W Bush famously proclaimed that he didn't have to ask anyone's permission to defend the United States of America. Does that mean he can attack Iran without having to ask Congress? A new resolution being drafted by Democratic Congressman Peter DeFazio may be a vehicle to remind Bush that he can't.

Bush has called news reports of plans to attack Iran "wild speculation" and declared that the United States is on a "diplomatic" track. But asked this week if his options included planning for a nuclear strike, he repeated that "all options are on the table".

The president is acting as if the decisions that may get Americans into another war are his to make and his alone. So the Iran crisis poses not only questions of military feasibility and political wisdom but of constitutional usurpation. Bush's top officials openly assert that he can do anything he wants - including attacking another country - on his authority as commander-in-chief.

snip>

Congressional response
DeFazio is now preparing and seeking support from other House members for a resolution asserting that the president cannot initiate military action against Iran without congressional authorization.

"The imperial powers claimed by this administration are breathtaking in their scope. Unfortunately, too many of my colleagues were willing to cede our constitutional authorities to the president prior to the war in Iraq. We've seen how that turned out," DeFazio told the New York-based Nation newsmagazine. "Congress can't make the same mistake with respect to Iran. Yet the constant drumbeat we're hearing out of the administration, in the press and from think-tanks on Iran eerily echoes what we heard about Iraq.

"It likely won't be long until we hear from the president that he can take preemptive military action against Iran without congressional authorization, which is what he originally argued about Iraq. Or that Congress has already approved action against Iran via some prior vote, which he also argued about Iraq," DeFazio said. "That is why it is so important to put the administration, my colleagues and the American people on notice now that such arguments about unilateral presidential war powers have no merit. Our nation's founders were clear on this issue. There is no ambiguity."

more...

[UpInArms]

25. Buyout Could Cost Washington Post Lots of Big-Name Bylines

http://www.washingtonian.com/buzz/2006/0426.html

The Washington Post stands to lose some of its signature writers in a new round of buyouts. Among those considering the Post’s latest staff-reduction offer is chief political writer Dan Balz.

“I love the Post and my job,” says Balz, who like other eligible journalists is over age 54, “but like virtually everyone who is around my age at the paper, I’m looking at this. But I have not made a decision and won’t until I’ve been able to sort through things.”

Also weighing the buyout offer is Tom Edsall, who has covered the story of money and politics for years. He describes himself as “eligible and considering.”

Since the buyout offer became official on April 15, reporters and editors have been meeting daily with Post officials to work out the fine points of the deal, considered generous by newspaper standards.

At least two business writers have decided to move on. Jerry Knight, who has covered local business since 1977 and writes Monday’s Washington Investing column, is already booking flights to Paris. Al Crenshaw, 63, is “strongly leaning toward it.” He came to the Post in 1972 and has been writing the Cash Flow column for the Sunday business section since 1987.

...more...

[54anickel]

26. Surprise of Enron Trial Is Lay's Surly Manner

Known for charm, the ex-chairman may have damaged his case with sarcasm and snippiness.


Jeez, who does THAT sound like?

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-enron28apr28,1,7279038.story?coll=la-headlines-business&track=crosspromo

HOUSTON — Who would have guessed that Kenny Boy could be a tougher sell to a jury than Capt. Queeg?

Enron Corp. founder Kenneth L. Lay — Kenny Boy to his friend President Bush — is renowned for his courtliness, his philanthropy, his rise from a dirt-poor boyhood in the Missouri Ozarks to a nine-digit fortune.

Codefendant Jeffrey K. Skilling, who invented Enron's most profitable business and ran the company during most of its heyday, also is known for getting in a bar fight while under indictment and for publicly calling an investment analyst by another name for a sphincter.

At the start of their federal fraud and conspiracy trial three months ago, the betting was that the volatile Skilling's performance on the witness stand might drag Lay down, not the other way around.

more...

[UpInArms]

31. Gold rebounds; silver gains ahead of ETF launch

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BA3962FD2%2D20D6%2D48C5%2D80FC%2DBB96523D9196%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rose early Friday, recouping some of the prior-session losses that came after a Chinese rate hike raised expectations of a slump in physical demand from the world's most populous country.

Gold for June delivery was last trading up $4.90 at $641.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract closed down almost $6 on Thursday after China's move. Comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on the prospect of rising inflationary pressures added to the downward pressure.

UBS raised its 2006 and 2007 gold price forecast earlier, predicting that continued investment fund demand for commodities will support price gains.

<snip>

UBS is raising its 2006 gold price forecast 12% to $630 an ounce and its 2007 forecast 25% to $750 an ounce.

<snip>

July silver was up 13 cents at $12.72 an ounce. The first silver exchange-traded fund is due to launch on the American Stock Exchange this morning, under the symbol SLV.

...more...

[UpInArms]

42. Barclays silver ETF begins trading on the Amex

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BC6B59B17%2D1F1C%2D4F62%2D8370%2D583E496653E3%7D&symbol=

BOSTON (MarketWatch) - A highly anticipated silver exchange-traded fund sponsored by Barclays Global Investors that has been in the works for over a year began trading Friday on the American Stock Exchange

The unit of British bank Barclays Plc (UK:BARC: news, chart, profile) (BCS 49.41, +0.49, +1.0% ) launched the ETF Friday after earlier this week announcing in a filing that 1.5 million ounces of silver had been deposited in the trust, which is slated to charge a sponsor fee of 0.5% of assets.

<snip>

Dubbed iShares Silver Trust (SLV 0.00, 0.00, 0.0% ) , shares of the ETF represent 10 ounces of the metal held in a vault. Bank of New York (BK 34.83, +0.37, +1.1% ) is the trustee and J.P. Morgan Chase Bank (JPM 43.95, +1.29, +3.0% ) in London is the custodian. Shares of the silver ETF were up 19 cents to $129.19 in early trades Friday.

<snip>

Two existing gold ETFs, StreetTracks Gold Trust (GLD 62.96, -0.69, -1.1% ) and iShares Comex Gold Trust (IAU 63.01, -0.79, -1.2% ) , have been popular with investors. The first mover, StreetTracks Gold Trust, has gathered about $6.5 billion since its November 2004 inception in one of the more successful fund launches in recent memory.

...more...

[UpInArms]

44. June Gold @ $645.80 oz - July Silver @ $12.94 oz - July Copper @ $3.26 lb

9:46 AM ET 4/28/06 JUNE GOLD UP $9.50 AT $645.80/OZ AFTER 25-YR HIGH OF $647.50

9:46 AM ET 4/28/06 JULY SILVER CLIMBS 35C, OR 2.8%, TO $12.94/OZ

9:46 AM ET 4/28/06 JULY COPPER UP 7.9C, OR 2.5%, AT $3.26/LB

[54anickel]

55. Sure are pushing for $650 these days, it's been defended...so far.

How long can the PTB try to keep the lid on?

[UpInArms]

68. June Gold @ $650.20 oz - July Silver @ $13.45 oz

11:11 AM ET 4/28/06 JULY SILVER JUMPS 6.8% TO AN OVER 1-WK HIGH OF $13.45/OZ

11:10 AM ET 4/28/06 JUNE GOLD TAPS $650.50/OZ, HIGHEST FUTURES PRICE IN 25 YRS

11:10 AM ET 4/28/06 JUNE GOLD LAST UP $13.90 AT $650.20/OZ IN NY

looks like that lid just popped off :eyes:

[UpInArms]

48. Gold futures climb near $648 in morning dealings

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BCCA38A57%2DB264%2D435E%2D824B%2DFE4E0CC2BC92%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- June gold climbed to a more than 25-year high of $647.50 an ounce in morning dealings and was last trading up $10.10, or 1.6%, at $646.40. "Physical interest in Asia overnight has lifted the yellow metal back above the $635 level and with most of Asia and Europe closed Monday for May Day holidays, traders are likely to be reluctant to go home short given the current geopolitical picture," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com. July silver added 41 cents, or 3.3%, to stand at $13 an ounce and July copper climbed 6.9 cents to trade at $3.25 per pound.

[54anickel]

67. Ewww, spot market just hit $651! Buck hit new low of 86.0, but it's a

STRONG 86.10 :eyes:

[UpInArms]

78. Gold $655 as U.N. rules Iran non-cooperative

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?siteid=mktw&guid={A3962FD2-20D6-48C5-80FC-BB96523D9196}&dist=bnb

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rose past $655 an ounce Friday to a level they haven't seen since late 1980, up more than 10% from their month-ago level, after the U.N. Security Council said Iran failed to meet its deadline to halt uranium enrichment and refused to cooperate with U.N.-appointed inspectors.

At the same time, silver prices climbed as much as 9% as the first U.S. silver exchange-traded fund began trading.

"All indications are that the geopolitical tensions will continue to support gold at this juncture, with the breakdown in the U.S. dollar adding even more ammo to the run," said Peter Spina, an analyst at GoldSeek.com.

The per-ounce price of $700 is now achievable in May, he said, with gold likely continuing to find great support on the downside around $600.

Gold for June delivery climbed as high as $655.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, a more than 25-year high. It was last up $16.70, or 2.6%, at $653.

...more...

[54anickel]

72. Where is the gold price going?

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/phillips/phillips042806.html

snip>

These give rise to our forecast - We forecast the price of gold will rise to the point when the U.S. $ will be quoted in the numbers needed to buy a gram or an ounce of gold.

This would prove all the above forecasts right, but better describe the future of the global economy. In such a scene the path to be followed from today's conditions to those points would see a fundamental rupturing of the global "harmony" we are experiencing at present, leading to full-blown uncertainty in money and economies, alongside a general breakdown of confidence down to the level of each one of us.

We are moving towards such a scene on several fronts, each causing the fall of the next 'domino' against the next one and so on. We look here at the different 'dominoes' leaning heavily against the next one already.

Oil
The Oil market is rapidly moving to a point where there will be insufficient oil to supply global needs. Once this point is reached, the only way to bring back a balance to the demand / supply formula will be to curb demand. Here lies the rub!

With all global governments committed to putting the interests of their nation above all others, the first step has to be for those able to do so securing their own supplies in a manner that ensures no other nation can access them. Once this is done the balance left over for the open market will be far from sufficient to supply the rest, so the price will rise to heights unheard of, still leaving many nations far short of their requirements. Those who did manage to secure their supplies, will have to pay the market price, we have no doubt. So the oil price heights achieved are unlikely to be short-lived. It appears they have the potential to choke off growth in most countries!

Effectively all currencies will have been devalued in terms of the oil price. Specifically the price of oil in each currency will define the extent to which that currency has been devalued.

Real Currency Values?

more...

[UpInArms]

79. Gold futures climb more than $20 an ounce (@ $657.30 oz)

12:39 PM ET 4/28/06 JUNE GOLD TAPS $657.80/OZ, LAST UP $20.70 AT $657.20

12:39 PM ET 4/28/06 JULY SILVER UP $1.15, OR 9.2%, AT ONE-WEEK HIGH OF $13.75/OZ

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B1D25F1FE%2DF4E2%2D4C27%2DB702%2DAF4C9B9C8CE9%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- June gold was up $21 at $657.30 an ounce in afternoon dealings, after reaching a more than 25-year high of $658.20. "Iran continues to provoke conflict and the gold price is reflecting that sense of uneasiness," said Peter Spina, an analyst at GoldSeek.com. "Iran knows they have leverage here, especially with oil above $70 and the U.S. dollar becoming ever so vulnerable." July silver jumped $1.31, or 10.4%, to $13.90 an ounce, tapping a one-week high of $14 on the heels of the silver exchanged-traded fund's launch. Overall, "demand is exceptionally strong and we forecast a very successful future for these silver-backed shares," said Spina.

[54anickel]

85. NY gold scales new 25-year high, silver shines (Seeing that 25-year

high in the repeated over and over again in the headline lately)

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=businessNews&storyid=2006-04-28T165835Z_01_N28452789_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-SILVER-COMEX.xml

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Gold futures surged to a new 25-year high on a falling dollar and worries over Iran's atomic program on Friday, and the rally spilled over to silver, which was already firmer after a launch of a new silver-backed fund.

Strong oil and base metals prices and uncertainty over the U.S. economy fueled waves of aggressive investor buying across the precious metals group, dealers said.

"I think gold has kind of taken on a leadership role," Steve Platt, a broker with Archer Financials in Chicago, said, adding that the yellow metal also was benefiting from a weak dollar.


"People for a long time had not been interested in the precious metals to any big degree, but now you have started to see them look at them once again as a flight to quality in terms of asset diversification," Platt said.

snip>

"After a period of consolidation, and with $650 cleared, gold could now be set to challenge $680 as tensions in the Middle East draw investors toward gold's safe-haven qualities," said James Moore, an analyst with TheBullionDesk.com.

Well that was a short lived blue light special err, correction.

more...

[UpInArms]

35. pre-opening blather

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.0. Stage remains set for equities to open on a downbeat note as investors remain fixated on Microsoft's disappointing report as well as ongoing concerns about rising interest rates and higher oil prices. Speaking of, Chevron (CVX) beat forecasts by two cents which, along with a rebound in crude, could help Energy provide some early leadership.

08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.0. Futures trade improves slightly following economic data, but still suggests a lower open for the indices. An advance read on GDP showed that economic growth rebounded 4.8% (consensus +4.9%) in Q1, marking the 11th quarter in 12 of growth over 3%. The chain deflator - a key inflation measure – came in at 3.3% (consensus +2.7%) but the Q1 employment cost index rose just 0.6% (consensus +0.9%), easing wage-based inflation pressures. Bonds, though, have held their ground as the 10-yr note is down 7 ticks to yield 5.09%.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.0. Futures market versus fair value is signaling a negative start for stocks as a disappointing earnings report and outlook from bellwether Microsoft (MSFT) weighs on early sentiment. Investors are also showing a sense of reserve amid weakness in Treasuries ahead of an advance read on Q1 GDP (8:30 ET) that may show the economy grew at its fastest pace in more than two years (consensus 4.9%). The 10-yr note is off 6 ticks, lifting the yield to 5.09%.

[UpInArms]

37. 8:35 EST casino's open for bidness

Dow 11,364.42 -18.09 (-0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,321.51 -23.44 (-1.00%)
S&P 500 1,307.60 -2.12 (-0.16%)
10-Yr Bond 5.088 +0.04 (+0.08%)

NYSE Volume 60,205,000
Nasdaq Volume 172,906,000

[54anickel]

40. Rebalancing Legitimized! (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20060428-fri.html#anchor0

snip>

Policy makers have always communicated in strange and almost ritualistic ways. That’s true at the national as well as at the global level. Statements typically are steeped in jargon and opaque phraseology. Nuanced language allows for multiple interpretations — providing the cover, or hedge, if things go awry. All those caveats aside, there can be no mistaking a very important message sent on 21 April by the G-7 finance ministers and central bank governors after their recent meeting in Washington: Global imbalances have now been officially anointed as a major concern by the stewards of globalization. Not only were they given prominent mention in the official G-7 communiqué, but they were also the focus of a rare “annex” to the statement. In G-7 circles, that’s about as loud as an alarm ever gets.

The annex lays out three basic principles that shape the G-7’s approach to global rebalancing: One, it is a shared responsibility — an obvious but very important statement that readers of my work will also recognize. It is policy jargon for saying “no” to scapegoatting — pinning the blame unfairly on a nation like China. Two, rebalancing requires, first and foremost, a realignment of global saving and investment flows; this identifies disparities between current account surpluses and deficits as the major source of global instability — again, quite consistent with my own thinking and clearly putting the US, with its world record current account deficit, at the top of the problem list. Three, the G-7 annex stresses that rebalancing strategies must be designed with an aim toward maximizing sustained economic growth; in my view, that’s the weakest element of the G-7’s proposed strategy. While rapid growth is an understandable goal, its emphasis may obscure the heavy lifting that will ultimately be required of an effective global rebalancing strategy.

This latter point deserves elaboration. Economic growth has become the elixir of political angst — the perceived remedy for all that ails a nation’s economy. Pro-growth politicians win elections — and re-elections — while the anti-growth set is doomed to a quick oblivion. Growth has become such an important part of the policy rubric that it has spawned its own theoretical framework — supply-side economics. A broad array of pro-growth policies — especially tax cutting — has come into fashion as the rising tide that lifts all boats. Supply-siders believe that self-financing budget deficits, narrowing income inequalities, and surging productivity are all part of the growth miracle. Never mind America’s gaping budget deficit and the recent widening of disparities in the US income distribution — the pro-growth principles of supply-side economics have taken on almost a religious fervor in Washington and on Wall Street.

America’s current account deficit — the world’s most serious imbalance — is, first and foremost, an excess consumption problem. I make that statement on the basis of three facts: One, tradable goods imports by the US are currently 89% larger than its exports of tradables. That means exports now have to grow twice as rapidly as imports just to hold the US trade deficit constant. Two, import penetration has reached very high levels in America; tradable goods imports now account for a record 37% of US expenditures on goods. That means that the faster US domestic demand grows, the faster imports will grow — implying that faster growth begets an ever-widening US trade deficit and ever-mounting global imbalances. Three, US consumption is currently holding at a record 71% of US GDP — a huge breakout from the 25-year average of 67% that prevailed over the 1975 to 2000 period. These three points imply that it will be extremely difficult for the US to accept its role in the shared responsibility of global rebalancing without coming to grips with its excess consumption problem. And that, I’m afraid, could well spell slower economic growth in America. Such a conclusion not only flies in the face of the pro-growth principles of the G-7’s newly-articulated rebalancing strategy, but it is also very much at odds with the supply-side policy biases that currently dominate the Washington consensus.

I don’t want to come across as too negative in assessing the implications of the G-7’s epiphany. As an unabashed champion of the imperatives of global rebalancing for longer than I care to remember, I believe the 21 April communiqué was something close to an historical breakthrough. Moreover, it was followed by an equally impressive effort from the IMF at its companion annual meeting — an endorsement of the principles of “multi-lateral surveillance and consultation.” This is policy jargon for a big change in the modus operandi of the Fund, which has long conducted its work mainly on the basis of single-country missions and consultations. By taking its functionality to the multi-lateral level, the IMF is accepting the very important task of coming to grips with the “spillovers” across nations that arise from imbalances of trade and capital flows. The surveillance aspect of this task essentially empowers the IMF to sound warnings when multi-lateral imbalances reach dangerous levels — a welcome development for a world that is inclined to ignore such problems until it is too late. The multi-lateral consultation function will undoubtedly be a good deal thornier to execute, since it could conceptually involve arbitrating the costs and benefits of a shift in US fiscal policy versus structural reforms in Europe, weighing in reserve management practices of the oil producers and Asian exporters, and so on. Globalization is not just about integration — it is also about navigating the ever-contentious waters of cross-border structural and policy tradeoffs.

more...

[54anickel]

50. Iraq war set to be more expensive than Vietnam

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/article360657.ece

snip>

However, even if everything goes relatively smoothly, costs until a phase-out is complete could top $370bn. This would make the Iraq conflict, now into its fourth year, more expensive financially than the Vietnam War, which lasted eight years. Vietnam claimed 58,000 American lives, far more than the almost 2,400 lost in Iraq thus far. But in today's dollars it cost "only" $549bn, much less than the $690bn for Iraq, and a projected combined $811bn bill for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

It is a far cry from the weeks before the war, when a White House official was rapped on the knuckles for suggesting the cost might be between $100bn and $200bn, and Donald Rumsfeld, the Defence Secretary, was touting "a number that's somewhere under $50bn".

snip>

In January, a study by Joseph Stiglitz, the Columbia University economist and former Nobel Prize winner, and the Harvard lecturer Linda Bilmes reckoned the conflict could ultimately cost $2 trillion, if all factors are taken into account. These include the long-term healthcare costs for the 16,000 US soldiers already wounded in the conflict, and other indirect or hidden costs such as the rise in the price of oil, the need to finance larger budget deficits, higher recruiting costs and losses to the economy caused by the wounded.

The Pentagon has treated such outside estimates with disdain. But it resolutely refused to give a detailed picture of its own. Some experts suggest, however, that the Pentagon may have deliberately inflated its financial needs now, fearing that as the war becomes ever more unpopular, Congress will grow less willing to provide funds in the future.

more...

[UpInArms]

51. 10:18 EST markets cheering up on bad news

Dow 11,398.07 +15.56 (+0.14%)
Nasdaq 2,335.19 -9.76 (-0.42%)
S&P 500 1,314.75 +5.03 (+0.38%)
10-Yr Bond 5.080 -0.04 (-0.08%)

NYSE Volume 445,041,000
Nasdaq Volume 641,603,000

10:00 am : Equities are still on the defensive and aren't getting any help from a report compiled by The University of Michigan's that showed sentiment weakened slightly in late April. The index inched lower to 87.4 (consensus 89) from 89.2 earlier in the month. Even though the revision is not significant since there is not a strong correlation between sentiment and actual consumer spending, the expectations index fell to 73.4 -- the lowest since November, further reflecting the indecisive tone among buyers. DJ30 -20.45 NASDAQ -21.73 SP500 -0.79 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1634/863/452 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1349/1180/194 mln

09:40 am : Market kicks off the last trading day of the month in negative territory as a trifecta of disappointing news from bellwether Microsoft (MSFT 24.28 -2.97) temporarily tarnishes an otherwise strong earnings season. The tech giant missed Q3 (Mar) forecasts by a penny, warned for the current quarter, and said that increased investments (lowering earnings) will be necessary to maintain longer-term growth. Also stalling early follow-through buying efforts has been a GDP report that showed the economy grew at its fastest pace (+4.8%) in more than two years that, along with the Q1 chain deflator rising a larger than expected 3.3% raising modest inflation concerns, has renewed worries about the Fed going too far with its tightening. On a positive note, the Q1 employment cost index rose just 0.6% (consensus +0.9%), easing wage-based inflation pressures.DJ30 -18.15 NASDAQ -22.88 SP500 -2.00 NASDAQ Vol 218 mln NYSE Vol 74 mln

[stop the bleeding]

60. Thanks guys for keeping us up on the news :) n/t

[UpInArms]

61. PBGC (Pension Guaranty Fund) to be responsible for $117M for Aloha Airline

10:48 AM ET 4/28/06 PBGC EXPECTS TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR $117M OF $155M SHORTFALL

10:46 AM ET 4/28/06 PENSION BENEFIT GUARANTY ASSUMES PENSIONS OF ALOHA AIRLINES

[UpInArms]

65. LOL! BAWAG loans to Refco were secured by Refco stake

What a crapshoot!

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-04-28T144713Z_01_L28160399_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-BAWAG.XML

VIENNA, April 28 (Reuters) - The owner of BAWAG P.S.K., an Austrian bank targeted in a $1.3 billion lawsuit by creditors of insolvent U.S. broker Refco Inc. <RFXCQ.PK>, said the bank had received a pledge for 27 percent of Refco as collateral for loans.

The Refco creditors suing BAWAG claim the bank controlled a stake in Refco several times bigger than the 10 percent it has disclosed and accuse it of being a willing conspirator in the fraud that brought down Refco last October.

Erich Foglar, finance chief of Austrian trade union federation OeGB, which owns BAWAG, said at a news conference on Friday that a former official of the federation had helped to funnel loans to Refco via a Liechtenstein-based foundation and a U.S. company.

The bank received a pledge for an additional 27 percent as collateral for the loans, which were paid back in 2004, he said.

Foglar said that, to his knowledge, BAWAG acted only as a lender and had no control over voting rights in Refco. BAWAG was not available for comment.

<snip>

Weninger, who also resigned this month, had not informed anybody on the union's board, Hundstorfer said. "This deal wasn't and isn't acceptable, and we apologise to our members, our officials, and the public," he said at the news conference.

...more...

[Roland99]

71. Lunchtime numbers: Anyone up for some Tex Mexed Missages?

DJIA 11,375.90 -6.60
Nasdaq 2,327.75 -17.20
S&P 500 1,312.36 +2.64
Russell 2000 766.09 +4.69
30 Yr Bond 5.19 +0.01
10 Yr Bond 5.09 0.00

[UpInArms]

75. PIEHOLE ALERT: Piehole Opens: Shit Falls Out

12:15 PM ET 4/28/06 BUSH SAYS KATRINA-RAVAGED REGION 'IS COMING BACK'

12:13 PM ET 4/28/06 BUSH: SUPPORTS MILITARY-PARTS PLANTS SALE TO DUBAI-OWNED CO

12:08 PM ET 4/28/06 BUSH: NO EVIDENCE OF ANY PRICE-GOUGING BY GAS STATIONS

11:58 AM ET 4/28/06 BUSH: REGULATORY RELIEF NEEDED SO REFINERIES CAN BE BUILT

[Roland99]

80. "regulatory relief"

Hmm...

Get rid of prevailing wage
Get rid of EPA regulations on fuel blends
Get rid of regulations on refineries so they can spew pollution to feed the oil addiction and grease Exxon's palms.



WWHHHHEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!11

[Roland99]

81. 2:45pm...Only the small caps with (very) small gains

DJIA 11,371.10 -11.40
Nasdaq 2,324.19 -20.76
S&P 500 1,311.36 +1.64
Russell 2000 764.54 +3.14
30 Yr Bond 5.18 0.00
10 Yr Bond 5.07 -0.01

[54anickel]

86. The close and long winded blather

Dow 11,367.14 -15.37 (-0.14%)
Nasdaq 2,322.57 -22.38 (-0.95%)
S&P 500 1,310.61 +0.89 (+0.07%)
10-yr Bond 50.69 -0.15 (-0.30%)
30-yr Bond 51.69 -0.13 (-0.25%)
NYSE Volume 2,442,590,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,582,744,000

4:20 pm : The market closed mixed Friday as a disappointment from Microsoft sidelined recent optimism on the earnings front while renewed geopolitical tensions and mixed economic data further underpinned a sense of nervousness among investors.

Kicking off the last trading day of April on a downbeat note was a trifecta of discouraging news from Microsoft (MSFT 24.12 -3.13). As if missing Q3 (Mar) forecasts by a penny wasn't enough, the tech bellwether also warned for the current quarter and said its will spend roughly $2.0 bln more in fiscal 2007 than analysts expected in order to maintain longer-term growth. The disappointment not only sent the S&P 500's third most influential constituent to a new 52-week low, marking its worst one-day decline since 2000, but also erased about $33 bln in market capitalization.

If it weren't for a handful of positive analyst commentary, in particular, an upgrade on Citigroup (C 49.83 +1.68) from Piper Jaffray, and some leadership from the Energy sector +1.1% amid better than expected earnings from Chevron (CVX 60.72 +0.74) and a rebound in oil prices to help investors deal with the 2.3% drubbing in Technology, the market would have fared much worse. Crude oil prices, along with gold futures, jumped after the I.A.E.A. said Iran missed its deadline to stop enriching uranium in defiance of the United Nations; the commodity closed up 1.2% near $72 a barrel. Aside from some pre-weekend positioning providing additional buying support for commodities was another breakdown in the dollar, which hit its weakest levels against the euro since May 2005. Fed Chairman Bernanke signaling a "pause" in their 22-month tightening cycle yesterday coupled with today's mixed economic data helped knock the greenback down 4.0% for the month.

Before the bell, an advance read on Q1 GDP showed that the economy grew at its fastest pace (+4.8%) in more than two years that, along with the Q1 chain deflator rising a larger than expected 3.3%, raised modest inflation concerns. In contrast, a University of Michigan report showed that sentiment weakened slightly in April while Chicago PMI reflected a pocket of slower growth as it fell to 57.2% from 60.4% in March, further reflecting the indecisive tone among buyers of both currencies and stocks.

With regard to industry leadership, six out of ten sectors actually closed higher. In addition to the upgrade on Citigroup, Prudential raising their Banks Industry rating to Neutral from Unfavorable and Hartford Financial (HIG 91.93 +5.04) hitting a historic high in the wake of strong earnings also helped the Financial sector provide some upside leadership and prevent the S&P 500 from joining the Dow and Nasdaq in negative territory. Another bright spot Friday on an otherwise dismal day for the bulls was managed health, which turned in the day's best performance (+4.3%) paring some of its 18% year-to-date decline following a strong report from Coventry Health Care (CVH 49.67 +3.97). Health Care Facilities, which pared some of its 6.4% loss in 2006 following better than expected results from Lifepoint Hospitals (LPNT 31.70 +1.98), and continued momentum in the drug space were two other sources of sector support.

Cummins Inc. (CMI 104.50 -4.30) beat estimates by 9 cents and raised its full-year guidance, playing into our Overweight rating on Industrials. The sector, however, continued to consolidate some of its 8.9% year-to-date gain which has been buoyed by stocks like CMI, BA, UTX, FDX, CAT and LMT recently hitting historic highs. BTK +0.1% DJ30 -15.37 DJTA -0.1% DJUA +0.1% DOT -1.0% NASDAQ -22.38 NQ100 -1.0% R2K +0.4% SOX -0.6% SP400 +0.4% SP500 +0.89 XOI +0.7% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1376/1646/2.58 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1320/1925/1.79 bln