Poll: Westly Leads Angelides in Race to Be CA Dem Gubernatorial Nominee

[DeepModem Mom]

LAT: Poll: Westly Leads Angelides in Race to Be Democrats' Nominee
By Michael Finnegan, Times Staff Writer
April 28, 2006

State Controller Steve Westly has taken a double-digit lead over Treasurer Phil Angelides in the Democratic contest for governor, but nearly half of likely voters in the June 6th primary are undecided, a new Los Angeles Times poll has found.

The race remains highly volatile: More than half of those who support Westly or Angelides say they could change their minds.

With both still unfamiliar to many Californians, Westly has gained an edge in part by outspending Angelides on biographical television ads. But neither man has started airing negative commercials, which could yet scramble the dynamics of the race. Voting by mail starts in nine days.

For now, Westly leads Angelides among likely Democratic primary voters, 33% to 20%, with 45% undecided.

On the Republican side, the poll found signs of a rebound for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, whom the Democratic nominee will face in November....Now, 44% of California's registered voters approve of Schwarzenegger's job performance, up from 37% in October. But his recovery is shaky: 53% still give him negative job ratings....

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-poll29apr29,0,4648540,full.story?coll=la-home-headlines

[autorank]

1. Born in Sacramento here...CA will not disappoint. Arine=Toast;) Red.

[AX10]

17. What do make of Arnold's "rebound"?

[joefree1]

18. Not much

On the Republican side, the poll found signs of a rebound for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, whom the Democratic nominee will face in November. Schwarzenegger's popularity has risen across a broad spectrum of voter groups since the last Times poll in October, when he was pushing a conservative ballot agenda roundly defeated weeks later.

Now, 44% of California's registered voters approve of Schwarzenegger's job performance, up from 37% in October. But his recovery is shaky: 53% still give him negative job ratings.

http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/front/la-me-poll29apr29,1,6862097.story?coll=la-headlines-frontpage&track=crosspromo

Wait until we pick a Dem to fight Arnald. This will be a vicious campaign with nurses, teachers, unions, environmentalist, etc. out for blood.

[AX10]

25. The "Grand Coalition" that defeated Arnold last Fall....

better be ready this Fall to do the same again. I do look forward to Arnold's downfall.

[autorank]

22. Thanks to JoeFree1, I have an informed response;)

From the link he provided:

"More troublesome for the governor: 48% say they will definitely or probably not vote for him in November. Just 31% say they will definitely or probably support his reelection.

Another difficulty for the incumbent is the surly mood of California voters. The poll found that 61% of them see the state as seriously on the wrong track, their grimmest outlook since they ousted Gov. Gray Davis in the 2003 recall."

Neither challenger has broad name recognition, although they both have more than enough to start. The firemen, nurses, etc. not pounding on him daily so that's worth a few point bump.

Starting at 44% as an incumbent in a party with a distinct disadvantage doesn't leave much room for growth. And there is the 48% "definitely/probably not vote for him" and the 31% the other way.

I think there are so many people who want a shot at him, he's toast.

A major concern in California is the California Teachers Association's endorsement of the incredibly biased and manipulative Bruce McPherson, R, for Secretary of State (their only Rep. endorsement). McPherson replaced Democrat SoS Shelley after bogus charges were raised. McPherson has allowed a number of dirty tricks in CA and is full force for voting machines of the Republican kind. WTF is wrong with CTA? That's the only candidate the Republicans need. That organization is brain dead.

[JI7]

2. shows how much tv ads play a part in California politics

Arnold's rise in polls are due to the chamber of commerce ads. and Westly seems to have an ad out every other minute. and i have to admit , they are very good ads.

haven't seen many Angelides ads, just recently started seeing a few having to do with endorsements.

as always, i imagine the campaign will go negative at some point and will have an impact on the race.

[saltpoint]

3. I'll hope the voters make a good choice in June and then I hope

whoever wins the Dems' primary goes on to bury Schwartzenegger in November.

[yorgatron]

4. i'm ABAALATD!

Anybody But Arnold As Long As They're Democratic!

[saltpoint]

7. I can deal with that, no problem, yorgatron. Yes.

[1932]

9. AB____ (fill in the blank) strategies NEVER WORK. You better figure out

why you're pro____ (fill in the blank) and tell everyone you know why. If you can't do that, then I guarantee you Arnold will win.

[Raine]

5. Westly is my choice

so far but I will certainly vote for whichever of them gets the nomination.

[shanti]

21. why is westly your choice?

why should i vote for him?

[Raine]

23. I like how Westly

emphasizes environmental issues, the environment is my special concern. I'm tired of Democrats who don't talk about global warming and alternative energy sources. Angelides has lightly touched on it but Westly is sticking his neck out on it and really making it a major part of his agenda.

[shanti]

24. fair enough

i'll do some more research on him because he is really an unknown to me. i'm in sacramento and know lots more about angelides, who i am leaning towards. angelides has the backing of boxer and feinstein too.

[cyclezealot]

6. looks like will be a sleeper.

Angelides is such a sharp speaker. Westly is so non commital regarding California's financial situation. a coward actually. US elections are hopeless. AMerican's in the grips of tv ads which say nothing but convey images.
Angelides has far more detailed plans to get CA out of it's financial straight jacket.
Westly's not real Democrat. Will vote for him, but not work. GIve me more time to do other stuff. Guy is so filthy rich, does not need our money either.
Westly reminds me of Lieberman with Dubya. a real sell out.

[1932]

8. I agree with that. I don't think Westly could beat Arnold. He doesn't

contrast well with Arnold. He could be characterized as more pro-corp than Arnold, and Arnold could come across as having more in common with average person.

Angelides definitely comes across as more pro-worker than Westly (and Arnold), and every bit as having as much understanding of immigrant experiense as Arnold (if not moreso).

I don't think it's a coincidence that Westly's commercials coincide with an increase in Arnold's popularity.

The conspiracy theorist in me feels that Westly's well-funded campaign is actually a Republican plot to help Arnold. Not only does Westly make Arnold look good, he's attacking Angelides for being a good Democrat.

[realFedUp]

13. Poll numbers today show Westly having the best chance

If you read the article, page A12 has the graph
that shows Westly has a large lead over Phil
in beating Arnold.

Personally, my dog could beat Arnold in November.

[1932]

15. I suspect it's only because he's spending more money right now.

Rarely does a single snapshot tell the whole story of the election.

Your dog could not beat Arnold in november. And for the reasons I stated above, I don't think Westly could either. And like I said above, I'm not surprised that Westly is bombarding the airwaves with his ads and criticizing Angelides's progressive persona, and that Arnold has become a little more popular at the same time.

[cyclezealot]

20. TV Ads repulse me. Swiftboat tactics.

I recall all too well, the last two years, Westly has been much to cozy with Arnie for my tastes. Worked too comfortably on too many issues. Up until he wanted to be governor, I doubt he had any issue differences with Arnie.
Labor , and Sen. Boxer has spoken out for Angelides. Maybe even, Feinstein? Enough for me. Westly will get my vote in November. That is all...Unless I see some sea change in his make up, . Feinstein , Westly. I can have more free time this coming fall for fun stuff; unless we have cause to go up to Long Beach to help out Winograd for Congress.

[realFedUp]

11. gee, no propaganda there....

Angelides hasn't spoken very much in any of his ads so
I have no idea if he's sharp or not. Westly's certainly
committed to a California that's paid off all the debts
it accrued after the dot.com bust among other things.
Calling Westly a coward is certainly beneath any fellow
Democrat. Check out Steve's website for his plans
for California: www.westly2006.com

Phil hasn't been clearly effective in his ads or
outreach beyond the Sacramento party Dems and his campaign
needs to make a change, but calling his opponent
names just makes Phil look negative.

[goclark]

19. Angelides is my pick

Westly is just pouring money into the campaign cause he has tons of it.

Better Westly than Arnold that's for sure!

[jamesinca]

10. well today is the big day I think

I believe the state party is voting on its endorsement of the candidate for Governor today at the party convention in Sacramento. Who ever walks off with that will have a definite advantage.

[realFedUp]

12. Phil needs that endorsement, Steve's lived without most of the big names

and he's doing better anyway. It's Phils to lose.
The Sacramento party Dems owe Phil because of his
work as state party chair (which incidentally Steve
ran for this position when he was 23, against
Phil)

It will be an interesting day, especially with
this story and the polls showing voters like
Steve's message better right now. Will the delegates
vote as party people or voters today?

[skipos]

14. Any polls on who has the best chance of beating Arnie? nt

[AX10]

16. How the HELL does arnie have a 44% approval rating?

[depakid]

26. He doesn't

It's just a media creation.

[AX10]

27. KICK