STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday December 1.....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Monday December 1, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 420
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 359
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 353 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 44 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 253
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 737
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 28, 2003

Dow... 9,782.46 +2.89 (+0.03%)
Nasdaq... 1,960.26 +6.95 (+0.36%)
S&P 500.... 1,058.20 -0.25 (-0.02%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.32% +0.08 (+1.84%)
Gold future... 398.00 +5.60 (+1.43%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Mike Hartman (repeat of 11/26 - some parts worth reviewing)

..about the dollar..
Two Lines of Thinking

First I will show the conflicting headlines on two Bloomberg articles from yesterday and today. Yesterday the headline stated, “Treasuries Gain as Economy Grows Without Generating Inflation” and today the headline reads, “Treasury Notes Decline After Economic Reports Point to Growth.” This tells me that the bond market is not responding to a potential increase or decrease in growth, but rather to a bigger macro-economic force. The bigger problem is the increased supply of treasury debt at a time when the demand for said debt is diminishing. More supply with less demand equals lower prices. It’s that simple. If we didn’t have an inordinate demand coming from Japan in an effort to weaken the yen and strengthen the dollar, we would see the dollar fall faster and lower than it would in a market free of intervention.

<cut>

In my estimation it is the third Bloomberg headline that accurately describes what is happening to the U.S. dollar and Treasuries. The headline reads, “Dollar Drops Against Euro; U.S. May Struggle to Attract Capital.” “The dollar had its biggest decline against the euro in a week in New York trading on concern the U.S. economy isn’t expanding fast enough to attract the investment needed to narrow a record current account deficit.” The dollar failed to rally even as government and industry reports showed improving durable goods orders, fewer claims for unemployment benefits, and a pick-up in manufacturing activity. “Clearly the growth story is not motivating foreign exchange markets,” said John McCarthy, director of foreign exchange trading at ING Financial in New York.

The euro is strengthening against the dollar because the European Union actually has a current account surplus. In fact, Europe’s surplus just widened to 7.7 billion euros in September, while we face record breaking deficits in the U.S. current account to the tune of approximately $46 billion per month, every month. Japan also has a current account surplus and explains why the yen has been trying to appreciate (minus BOJ intervention) versus the dollar. While the bullish spin for the U.S. economy is for continued strong growth, it has yet to be seen if the growth can be accomplished without massive borrow and spend stimulus coming from the Feds. In the near term it looks like 45-year low interest rates will be the primary backbone to sustaining our economic momentum. We may not see the inflation right now, but the lag time is about nine months to see all of the current stimulus end-up as inflation to consumer prices. For now we are seeing the re-inflation go into asset prices, not consumer goods. In time it will all trickle down to higher prices at all levels.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Fed Lays Groundwork to End Low Rate Vow

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve (news - web sites) officials have laid the groundwork to jettison an unusual vow to keep interest rates low, but whether they will take that step at their next meeting is far from clear, Fed watchers say.

After each of its last three policy meetings, the Fed has said it expected to keep rates low for "a considerable period," a surprisingly explicit, if still ambiguous, commitment from a central bank historically loath to tie its hands in any way.

The pledge first surfaced when Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan (news - web sites) testified to Congress in July, as policymakers worried that long-term interest rates might rise before the economy had fully found its feet.

story

[ozymandius]

3. Euro Clocks New High Against Dollar

TOKYO (Reuters) - The euro extended recent gains and hit fresh record highs against the dollar on Monday, benefiting from persistent concerns about the U.S. currency in the face of a gaping U.S. current account gap and geopolitical risks.

The single European currency also rose to its highest level against the yen in almost two months in light of weekend news of the nationalization of a troubled regional bank and the deaths of two Japanese diplomats in Iraq (news - web sites).

Still, the yen trimmed losses after the Tokyo stock exchange's Nikkei average erased big initial losses, absorbing news that the government would nationalize regional lender Ashikaga Bank.

story

[UpInArms]

8. daily dollar watch

and we're plumbing new lows

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 89.98 Change -0.25 (-0.28%)

There's lots of "chatter" out there regarding all of the reasons for the decline of the Roman Empire, but none will dare suggest that the fiscal policies and the foreign policies of this profligate mal-administration is bankrupting our country in monetary and moral ways.

Some day soon, the scales will fall from the eyes of the people and they will realize, though too late, that they have been robbed and they will be in the streets ala' Argentina (for a bit of history on that one see http://www.namibian.com.na/2001/December/world/0132B56DFF.html

anyway, here's to you Marketeers :toast:

Have a great day!

[JNelson6563]

12. wow, pretty low

How low can it go?? Limbo anyone?

Julie

[UpInArms]

14. I did a crude analysis about

a year ago (didn't keep my notes) but it was basically just a "curve" against a basket of other currencies and came up with an estimate for the number I thought it might go to by the first quarter of 2004 - anyway, making a long story short - my best guess is that it will be around 80 next year.

I don't know what that will do to our markets, but I feel that the inflationary pressures will cause the commodities to skyrocket - commodities being food and other perishable necessities.

I don't know that there will be any moves within our mal-administration to stop the problems of our twin deficits (the trade deficit and the budget deficit) to stop the fall of the value of the dollar.

Fed Governor Ben Bernanke has promoted the "printing press" scenario and here is a clip from The Daily Reckoning's newletter:

A little more than one year ago, as many readers may recall, Ben
Bernanke addressed the National Economists Club in Washington,
D.C. During that now-infamous speech, Bernanke remarked, "U.S.
dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly
limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology,
called a printing press.that allows it to produce as many U.S.
dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the
number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly
threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the
value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is
equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and
services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a
determined government can always generate higher spending and
hence positive inflation."


Bernanke has gotten his wish. The government has successfully
generated "higher spending and hence positive inflation".and
gold investors are grateful. The precious metal has jumped from
$300 an ounce when Bernanke spoke to nearly $400 an once today.
Unfortunately, the dollar has crumbled since Bernanke promised
to create "positive" inflation. What's more, the "higher
spending" he sought to promote is occurring, mostly because
Americans are taking on ever-more-onerous levels of debt.


We Americans have piled up nearly $2 trillion in credit card and
consumer debt. "Sit down and take a deep breath," says Dan
Ferris, editor of Extreme Value. "According to the Federal
Reserve's report last week, Americans had credit card and other
consumer debts of $1.972 trillion in the month of September.
That's approximately $6,573.33 worth of high-interest debt for
every man, woman and child in the United States.

"So Americans aren't fooling around," Ferris continues. "They're
not just adding a few bucks to their credit card balances.
They're going in deep.We quote Marty Whitman in the current
issue as saying that nobody with an IQ over
70 thinks the U.S. has anything but a bad long term future ahead
of it. Whitman's comment reminds of what H.L. Mencken said,
'Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the
American people.' Mencken's line was crass and not particularly
accurate. But I can't argue with anyone who says that Americans
are facing a crisis and they seem to have decided to handle it
by behaving as stupidly as possible."

I really don't want to do another analysis (fear of the unknown may be preferable to fear of the known for me).

[JNelson6563]

17. This addresses and issue I see as crucial

the debt load of American consumers. Unlike the gubberment, we mortals have our limits and I'm afraid many have hit theirs and even gone beyond it.

All plays into that "perfect storm" scenario I see brewing.

Thanks UIA for all you contribute. I think the Dollar Watch is one of the most important parts of the thread.

:yourock:

Julie

[UpInArms]

20. thanks for your

kind words Julie you make me blush

I have been terribly concerned about the return to voodoo economics for quite some time - here is an article I wrote in Jan 2002 regarding the terrible policies our "representatives" have enacted

http://www.americaheldhostile.com/ed012902.shtml

[JNelson6563]

21. Wow!!

That is really something!!! Colour me tres' impressed girl!!

I hope all will read your article and here's some interesting data from it for those who browse this thread:

There have been written into the tax codes of this country many lucrative benefits for corporations. It seems that over the years an inequity has been created. In 1998, 41 (forty-one) corporations paid less than zero in tax. How can they pay less than zero, you ask? They receive taxpayer funded bonuses and rebates for a variety of reasons, making their "after-tax" income greater than their actual earnings. The following is just a list of 24 (twenty-four) corporations and their earnings (before bonus) and their taxpayer funded bonus:


Lyondell Chemical $ 80M profit $ 44M taxpayer funded bonus
Texaco 182M profit 67.7M taxpayer funded bonus
Chevron 708M profit 186.8M taxpayer funded bonus
CSX 386.6M profit 102.1M taxpayer funded bonus
Tosco 227.4M profit 46.7M taxpayer funded bonus
PepsiCo 1,583.0M profit 302M taxpayer funded bonus
Owens & Minor 46.1M profit 7.9M taxpayer funded bonus
Pfizer 1,197.6M profit 197.2M taxpayer funded bonus
JP Morgan 481.1M profit 67.3M taxpayer funded bonus
Saks 83.0M profit 7.9M taxpayer funded bonus
Goodyear 400.7M profit 33.2M taxpayer funded bonus
Ryder 227.5M profit 16.4M taxpayer funded bonus
Enron 189.0M profit 12.5M taxpayer funded bonus
Colgate-Palmolive 348.5M profit 19.6M taxpayer funded bonus
MCI Worldcom 2,724.2M profit 112.6M taxpayer funded bonus
Eaton 478.8M profit 18.0M taxpayer funded bonus
Weyerhaeuser 405.0M profit 9.5M taxpayer funded bonus
General Motors 952.0M profit 19.0M taxpayer funded bonus
El Paso Energy 383.7M profit 3.0M taxpayer funded bonus
WestPoint Stevens 142.6M profit 1.2M taxpayer funded bonus
MedPartners 49.6M profit .4M taxpayer funded bonus
Philips Petroleum 145.0M profit 1.1M taxpayer funded bonus
McKesson 234.0M profit 1.0M taxpayer funded bonus
Nortrop Grumman 297.7M profit 1.0M taxpayer funded bonus


Holy Cannolli Johnny!! Horrifying, truly horrifying!

Julie--who never ceases to be amazed at the DU brain-trust

[Maeve]

32. No fair...I can't connect

Just get a "cannot find server" page.
:-(

[JNelson6563]

33. Check your PM Maeve

I C&P'd it for you. It's quite something.

Julie

[Maeve]

37. Dang! Those are some big numbers to wrap you brain around!

Hats off to UpinArms for taking on the challenge! And thanks, Julie.

When the numbers get too big, many people just shut down. This, I think, is a part of the root of the American problem of disconnect. We can't understand without effort, and so we just quit trying. It wouldn't matter so much if we weren't so big and willing to become an empire...

[JNelson6563]

4. Good Morning Marketeers!

Whooo-hooo!!!!! Gold's over 400!!!!!! I bet it stays and even continues! hahaha I love it!!

*ahem* Sorry.

So futures look bright and sunny and overseas markets are pretty happy. Could be an interesting day. Maybe with the story of us slaughtering lots of Iraqis this weekend will get things busy at the Buy window. You know how American investors feel more confident when we start wiping out brown-skinned folk on other continents. It's just plain good for business. ;-)

Hope all had a good Thanksgiving weekend.

Julie

[ozymandius]

6. Good morning Julie and all!

It really is amazing, now that you mention it Julie, how the reckless slaughter of some brown-skinned peoples will make profits at the major blue chip companies all the more sweeter. I don't know about your nighborhood, but when the civilian death toll passed fifty from this weekend's Iraq attack, Ford and GM cars were just flying off the lots here in Atlanta.

And Wal-Mart could not keep DVD players in stock...

Sasquatch consumer hordes are happy...

Death...

Buy...

*cough*

[twilight]

52. yep GOLD at $402.20 - dollar crumbling to $.834

And the dollar will fall - projected to $.70. Should be just GREAT times ahead! :eyes:

Of all the investments I hold, the gold is the best one going for the year. GO GOLD!

AND REMEMBER ....



:dem: :kick:

[JNelson6563]

53. Holy Cannollil!!

That's really something!

[twilight]

54. the fall of the dollar with be the fall of * !!!

and you can mark my words on it. Gold will continue to climb. IMHO, stay far away from this place called 'Wall Street'. Money should be in banks during times like this.

Check out the year 1928; esp. the month of July ...

:dem: :kick:

[ozymandius]

5. Check it out, Wall St! (*sickening cheerleader alert*)

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - All signs point to a successful start to the holiday shopping season, and that looks likely to start some stock buying when U.S. trading begins Monday.

At 5:20 a.m. ET, futures pointed to a higher open for the major indexes.

The first reports from the nation's retailers indicate a strong Thanksgiving weekend. Wal-Mart Stores (WMT: Research, Estimates), the No. 1 retailer, said its Black Friday sales were up 6.3 percent from a year earlier, at a record $1.52 billion. Visa, the credit card service, said credit and debit sales for the first two days of the weekend were up 12 percent, while retail tracking service ShopperTrak told of a 4.8 percent increase.

Among U.S. stocks in Europe, Wal-Mart shares were higher.

<cut>

On the economic front, the Institute of Supply Management's November report on manufacturing will give a peek at how well any recovery is going. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expect the index to hold at October's 57 level.

The report is due after the markets open, as is one on October's construction spending. That's expected to show a 0.5 percent gain, weaker than September's 1.3 percent increase.

story

[JNelson6563]

7. We're so great!

Don't you just love us?!?!?!? The rest of the world will be so much better off once we've colonized it!! Then they too will have Wal-Mart and can cheer when the top 1% make millions of the lemmings on the trading floor.

Wooo-hooo!!!!!!

<gag>

Julie

[ozymandius]

10. They need to overcome major customer retention hurdles.

They may start by removing incentives for customers to trample other customers. The grand idea being: as long as they're living, the can always shop at Wal-Mart.

[Maeve]

15. A quick reminder--"Black Friday" isn't the biggest shopping day

Not even #2, and hasn't been for years.... http://www.snopes.com/holidays/christmas/shopping.asp

I didn't go out--it was wet and dreary and I prefer to wait until everyone else is working (that's when the malls are bare). I'll try to do semi-regular "mall vs mart" crowding reports, a gauge on how flush folks are feeling. And remember as well--the news crews were jingling the bells last year, only to note in January that the hype was more sizzle than steak.
Pessimistic as always....waiting to be believably surprised.

[ozymandius]

9. Wall St set to gain; Wal-Mart up, Boeing off early

LONDON, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Wall Street is set to head higher on Monday in anticipation of a strong U.S. manufacturing figure to kick off a heavy week of data amid signs that shoppers are still flocking to the malls to keep recovery on track.

"The positive is that retail sales on Friday were a little bit better than we were looking for, but the only problem is that discounts have been so huge so margins will be hit. The one big negative is the dollar which is getting hammered," said Steve Previs of Jefferies International in London.

No major earnings reports are due on Monday.

story

[ozymandius]

11. Have a great day folks!

It's off to work I go...

[JNelson6563]

13. Buh-bye steel tarriffs!

http://www.msnbc.com/news/999705.asp?0cv=CB10

Bush dropping steel tariffs

Decision could trigger backlash in steel-producing states

By Mike Allen
THE WASHINGTON POST

Dec. 1 — The Bush administration has decided to repeal its 20-month-old tariffs on imported steel to head off a trade war that would have included foreign retaliation against products from politically crucial states, administration and industry sources said yesterday.

THE OFFICIALS would not say when President Bush will announce the decision but said it is likely to be this week. The officials said they had to allow for the possibility that he would make some change in the plan, but a source close to the White House said it was “all but set in stone.”
European countries had vowed to respond to the tariffs, which were ruled illegal by the World Trade Organization, by imposing sanctions on up to $2.2 billion in imports from the United States, beginning as soon as Dec. 15. Japan issued a similar threat Wednesday. The sources said Bush’s aides concluded they could not run the risk that the European Union would carry out its threat to impose sanctions on citrus fruit from Florida, farm machinery, textiles and other products.
Bush advisers said they were aware the reversal could produce a backlash against him in several steel-producing states of the Rust Belt-including Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio. That arc of states has been hit severely by losses in manufacturing jobs and will be among the most closely contested in his reelection race.

Originally posted by sgr2 in GD. Boy, Pennsylvania and Ohio should be happy, eh?

Julie

[UpInArms]

16. I basically look at this as

a "propaganda" maneuver - very similar to the "rumors of BoJ" intervention -

Rover would be pissing blood if the puppet did this. This mal-administration has sacrificed every economic rule for their political gain and why would they change clothes now?

jmho

[JNelson6563]

18. I dunno

I've seen the neo-con camp split over this. Should be interesting to watch playout.

Julie

[cthrumatrix]

19. Gold at $400.70 @ 8:50 am est......

http://www.kitco.com/

[JNelson6563]

22. and this ain't no subway scare either

this is reality. Flight to quality. If this were a few centuries ago I think this would be a situation where the wealthy would be hurriedly having their jewels sewn into their clothes.

Julie

[cthrumatrix]

23. forecasts of the US dollar devaling another 20%....the real question

is why..?

Does the media talk about our trade defict...or the federal deficit all the issues that make our dollar go down.

I want a president who takes owenrship for this...how will it change?

[JNelson6563]

24. How will it change?

I suspect through some sort of revolution. I hope it's not too bloody.

Julie

[ze_dscherman]

40. Just look at Gold now. And Euro tumbling down as well (at 11.10 NY Time)

Something happened I didn't notice? Or someone fighting it down?

[Maeve]

25. Gloriosky and can't you feel the spirit of Xmas??

Dow 9,835.27 +52.81 (+0.54%)
Nasdaq 1,976.80 +16.54 (+0.84%)
S&P 500 1,063.35 +5.14 (+0.49%)
10-Yr Bond 4.373% +0.053

[JNelson6563]

26. The party has started!!

Wee-hoo! 4 minutes in and here we are:


Dow 9,836.83 +54.37 (+0.56%)
Nasdaq 1,977.35 +17.09 (+0.87%)
S&P 500 1,063.35 +5.14 (+0.49%)
10-Yr Bond 4.375% +0.055

Already gettin' slapped around in Treasuries. But who cares? Buy!! Buy!! Buy!!

Disney looks good. haha

Julie

[UpInArms]

27. It's time to party like there's no tomorrow!

Dow 9,834.97 +52.51 (+0.54%)
Nasdaq 1,976.80 +16.54 (+0.84%)
S&P 500 1,063.35 +5.14 (+0.49%)
10-Yr Bond 4.373% +0.053

[Maeve]

28. Synchronized posting can be such fun!

:yourock:

[JNelson6563]

29. <snarf>

Great minds think alike? ;-)

Julie

[UpInArms]

30. being on the same page

with others :D

[Maeve]

31. 9:55 and holding steady

Of course, that usually changes by 10:10 or so...

Dow 9,829.35 +46.89 (+0.48%)
Nasdaq 1,978.39 +18.13 (+0.92%)
S&P 500 1,063.82 +5.62 (+0.53%)
10-Yr Bond 4.383% +0.063

[Maeve]

34. 10:10 and what did I say?

Nothing but good times ahead, right?

Dow 9,847.42 +64.96 (+0.66%)
Nasdaq 1,982.43 +22.17 (+1.13%)
S&P 500 1,065.53 +7.32 (+0.69%)
10-Yr Bond 4.390% +0.070

[JNelson6563]

35. heh heh the burden of a "seer"

You're good Maeve. Damn good.

[UpInArms]

36. floating up up and away

like a balloon full of hot air

Dow 9,869.12 +86.66 (+0.89%)
Nasdaq 1,987.65 +27.39 (+1.40%)
S&P 500 1,067.51 +9.30 (+0.88%)
10-Yr Bond 4.383% +0.063

[JNelson6563]

38. I was on the radio!

I just talked to Governor Dean! Woo-hoo!! The Diane Rheem show.

I'll have more faith in good #s once we have a Dem in the WH again.

Julie

[UpInArms]

39. That's great, Julie!

:dem:

Way to go!!!

I am so ready for some sanity and reason - Dean is the one to do it (imho)

[UpInArms]

41. still rising

Dow 9,866.68 +84.22 (+0.86%)
Nasdaq 1,980.72 +20.46 (+1.04%)
S&P 500 1,066.38 +8.18 (+0.77%)
10-Yr Bond 4.419% +0.099

and this lovely cheery thought about more debt for the consumer from the cheerleaders of doom

To cite a Wall Street Journal article, consumers charged a combined $3.4 bln at retail stores on Friday and Saturday, for a 9% year/year increase, according to Visa USA...

[Maeve]

42. Well, I'm charging more than last year

But I pay off the bills each month, so that sort of cancels my increase out. I don't think everyone is working that way, however....

Gotta get some work done! Holiday decorations don't change themselves and houses aren't self-cleaning!

[cthrumatrix]

43. somethings gotta give...gold , dollar & market up...?

my guess is the dollar falls and the market pulls back a tad.

[JNelson6563]

44. Well Treasuries aren't very happy....

Dow 9,883.94 +101.48 (+1.04%)
Nasdaq 1,982.99 +22.73 (+1.16%)
S&P 500 1,068.10 +9.90 (+0.94%)
10-Yr Bond 4.434% +0.114

Yields up over 11 basis points today.

We'll see. I agree though, something's going to give. Not just some movement in Treasuries....

Julie

[Capn Sunshine]

45. well, Julie, it's like this

during the end of the year all these giant monstrous positions in the macro world are coming to a close ,fiscally speaking. Everybody is frozen with their stuff barring an unknown current event that would move markets, such as Catching Bin Laden.

As we look forward to next year, what do we see? Lots of chatter about the inevitability of rates rising. Election year and all. Well then, knowing what is known, and what is known unknown ( I LOVE Donald Rumsfeld, he should have been a bond trader) everybody is looking at the deficit driven supply of new paper about to break on us in Q1 like a tidal wave , and middling to weak demand for it (our allies are NOT happy with our conduct) together with a dollar trending, well, you know where, and a very real possibility of an inflation surprise, so the specs are trying to get a jump on all this and taking profits like they should have week 2 of November. Trying to get ahead of massive selling.

What the market is saying is less about a strengthing economy (we all know the real story) and more about oversupply and buying fatigue vs euro denominated products out there.

I suppose I could be wrong, it happens. But the equity selloff I was expecting and the end of q4 in the market is getting goosed over into q1. Fundamentals look awful, every indicator is screaming red. If this was an auto dahboard, we'd be running hot and two quarts low on oil, headed uphill on the continental divide with the closest service station 90 miles away on the other side. And maybe a gas leak or fuel pump going bad.

So it all depends if we crest this grade and can coast down the other side.

In the meantime we're rangebound; 10 yr @ 4.68 is upper resistance , 4.18 lower. Follow the bouncing ball.

edited to clarify I expect stocks to sell off.Hard.

[cthrumatrix]

46. what do you see for gold and the dollar...?

[JNelson6563]

49. I'll wager on those

I see further weakness in the dollar and further strength in gold. But that's just me.

Julie

[JNelson6563]

50. Well stated Cap'n

Love the car analogy. <snarf>

Julie

[KoKo]

47. Astrology "Market Timer" Merriman's Views on this week's Market

In the Far East, the excitement remains with the Chinese stock market, as indicated by Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index. After falling to a low of 11662 on November 21, prices shot up again late last week, to 12,340 by Friday. This is just slightly below the yearly high of 12,537 recorded back on November 4. China still looks like the place to buy stocks. The Japanese Nikkei also performed fairly well last week, closing at 10,101 after falling to a multi-week low of 9684 back on November 20. If that wasn’t the primary cycle trough, then one is due anytime in the next 3 weeks. The All Ordinaries of Australia still struggled last week, only rising to 3207 on Wednesday, which is well below its yearly high of 3317 recorded on October 22. The market closed at 3195, and still looks weak on the daily chart.

In the United States, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ Composite posted nice rallies, achieving their highs of the week on Friday, near the close. Still, both markets are well off their yearly highs posted back on November 7. Thus, as we look at all of these world stock indices, we note that the yearly highs in almost all of them occurred between September 4-November 7. This means that original targets for 50-week cycle crests are still in effect for most world indices. Yet, we also note that serious declines have not yet unfolded in most, leaving our forecast for an 8-20% decline still in doubt. If we don’t break hard in the next two weeks, then I think it may not happen. It will be one of those 6% times in the past 75 years that the 50-week cycle has not unfolded in the normal period, with the normal range of decline.

Two other markets deserve notice for their activity last week. The Euro recorded a new all-time high on Friday, and Gold made a new 7-year high on Wednesday, its last trading day of last week. For the first time since 1996, Gold traded briefly above 400. The stock market may be dismissing the potentially dangerous inflationary reports on the economy and the political situation in the U.S. But the precious metals and currency markets are quite aware of the possibility, and therefore they probably offer better long-term investment opportunities than stocks. They may also be more realistic about what is really occurring in today’s world economy.

http://www.stariq.com/MarketWeek.HTM

[tritsofme]

48. Do we break 10,000 on Friday?

With "better than expected" jobs numbers?

[JNelson6563]

51. Anything is possible of course but

I'm not jumping in.

Things cool a bit, but I wouldn't be jumping in anyway. Here's where we are at 2:06:


Dow 9,862.75 +80.29 (+0.82%)
Nasdaq 1,977.41 +17.15 (+0.87%)
S&P 500 1,067.21 +9.00 (+0.85%)
10-Yr Bond 4.411% +0.091

Julie

[JNelson6563]

55. 3:45 and near the end of the ride

And what a wild ride today!! Weeee-hooooo!!!!!

Dow 9,896.91 +114.45 (+1.17%)
Nasdaq 1,987.27 +27.01 (+1.38%)
S&P 500 1,070.09 +11.89 (+1.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.392% +0.072


Julie