Shifts in States May Give Bush* Electoral Edge

[kskiska]

WASHINGTON, Dec. 1 — Beyond issues like Iraq and the economy is one political reality that both the White House and Democrats say is already shaping next year's presidential race: If President Bush carries the same states in 2004 that he won in 2000, he will win seven more electoral votes.

That change, a result of a population shift to Republican-friendly states in the South and West in the last several years, means the Republicans have a slight margin of error in 2004 while the Democrats will have to scramble just to pull even.

In 2000, after Florida's 25 electoral votes were awarded to Mr. Bush, he won the presidency with 271 — 5 more than Al Gore's 266. Since then 18 states have either won or lost electoral votes, with 7 states that Mr. Bush won last time gaining a total of 11 electoral votes: Florida picked up 2, as did Texas, Georgia and Arizona. North Carolina, Nevada and Colorado each gained 1.

The gain of 11 electoral votes was offset by a loss of 4 from four other Bush states, leaving Mr. Bush with a net gain of 7. The Democrats lost eight electoral votes in six states that went for Mr. Gore and gained one in another, for their net loss of seven.

The shift in the electoral map means that the Republicans have a crucial cushion going into the 2004 presidential campaign. Mr. Bush could hold all the states he won in 2000 except for, say, West Virginia and its five electoral votes, and still win in 2004. The Democrats have no such room for error. They must hold all the states Mr. Gore won and add to them to make up the difference.


more…
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/02/national/02ELEC.html?hp

[bluestateguy]

1. Another "aura of inevitability" story

Not interested..

[rocktivity]

6. I call it Borg Journalism

Resistance to the Republican machine is futile...


rocknation

[jeter]

2. 7 electoral votes is NOTHING

People are making much ado about this. But it is really meaningless. As if the entire election hinges on 7 electoral votes.

[DeathvadeR]

5. o really? How many more did he need in the Last election?

It' may not matter if anyone votes at all. The outcome may already be decided.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

3. Which is why we need Florida or Ohio in our column.

Or even Missouri if we nominate Gephardt.

[frustrated_lefty]

4. Louisiana carries 9

[fabius]

7. Well OK, but ...

I gotta think Florida, Ohio, Arizona, Colorado, are potential states for the Democrats.

People have moved OUT of some states that means they moved IN to others, to cause this shift in total electoral votes. Only about half of those who moved were Republicans. Think about it.

[KoKo]

8. North Carolina 's new House Member picked up for population increase/Dem!

and John Edwards through out Lauch Faircloth the "Jesse clone" so North Carolina could very well be a "swing state."

I thought this NYT's article was crap. If there are other States like NC where one seat (due to population increase) has been picked up by a Dem..then their logic is flawed.

[NIGHT TRIPPER]

9. baby Bushee didn't carry Florida last time now did he !!

So I guess he'll have to get daddy to make the Supreme court give him Florida again..
And then this massive 434 number (Americans murdered by bushee's team) won't play a part either---
The relatives and friends will just cheer him on right?

Waaah!! Waaah!
C'mon daddy , please !! please ! I really wanna win !
Sorry son, Deibold doesn't have machines in every state yet.

[xchrom]

10. he didn't win the last election

it's so frustrating -- the courts GAVE the election to him -- with the help of the house and senate.
grrrr!

[dusty64]

11. So how can they assume

chimp will "win" all states he won in 2000. This does seem to be more cheerleading for our regime, one need only turn on tv to hear about our "rocketing" economy. Funny, I've yet to talk to ONE person who thinks things are better. It must be the superwealthy and corporations who feel this way, "regular" citizens sure don't. You can bet we'll be hearing MUCH more about this and our "success" abroad in the coming year, fasten your seatbelts the whores are going into full spin mode.

[Justice]

12. Interesting Analysis

I believe the Democratic candidate will hold all the states Al Gore won. I don't think Bush will hold West Virgina. Florida will be very much in play.