STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 8 September

[ozymandius]

Friday September 8, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 866 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2087 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1787 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1748
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 7, 2006

Dow... 11,331.44 -74.76 (-0.66%)
Nasdaq... 2,155.29 -12.55 (-0.58%)
S&P 500... 1,294.02 -6.24 (-0.48%)
Gold future... 624.90 -16.90 (-2.70%)
30-Year Bond 4.94% -0.01 (-0.26%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.80% -0.01 (-0.12%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

STORM CLOUDS CAST SHADE ON THE RALLY

A scan of the various US market, international, and sector exchange traded funds (ETFs) indicate that practically all of them are in bullish patterns. However, there are some notable exceptions and these may be suggesting that what appears to be an overwhelmingly bullish stock market is not so bullish after all. Consider the following ETFs that are showing sell signals and bearish price objectives according to one percent, three box reversal point-and-figure (PAF) charts:

* Dow Transports (IYT)
* Industrial Select (XLI)
* Timeliness Select Portfolio (PIV)

(In addition, several energy-related ETFs are now in PAF “sell” signals.)

Most ominous is the action in the Dow Transports where practically all of its components are in bearish technical patterns. As of Wednesday evening, 18 of 20 Dow Transports are below their 10-week moving average, and 15 of 20 are below their 40-week moving average. With the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 rallying in suspect volume during August and nearing their multi year highs, the bearish action of the transports seems to cast doubt upon the validity and sustainability of the current US stock market rally.

-cut-

Today’s Market

After a rally, gold dropped about $16/oz today and silver was hammered by $0.42/oz. As a result, precious metals continued their intermediate term squiggly action and confirmed continuation of the current corrective pattern against the long term uptrend. The preponderance of evidence presented in this space 2 weeks ago suggests that this correction will continue for a time frame measured in weeks before the next wave up begins.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

36. Peak Wealth (Gold-buggy ending)

http://my.opera.com/prosperingbear/blog/show.dml/448602

Summary: They Don't Ring A Bell At The Top
One can visually see the market peaking using 5 Day Financial Reports of the EFTs. The 5 Day Financial Report for the SPDRs (SPY), which reflects the S&P 500, closed down today at 130.509

Of particular importance is the 5 Day Financial Report for iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT), an investment which reflects long-term government bond performance. TLT's drop from 88.08 on 8-31-06 to 87.05 on 9-6-2006 signals a financial market top and de facto interest rate hike. Stock value cannot increase in a bond-deflationary, interest-rate inflationary environment.

The charts indicate Peak Wealth may have occurred yesterday 9-5-2006; if not, Peak Wealth will occur immediately prior to or immediately after the September 2006 911 Anniversary.

Another reason to think that 9-5-2006 was the financial market top is that today only three ETFs were up in value RKH, AGG and SLV.

I. Numerous Commentators Confirm Peak Wealth
A. Ike Iossif in Financial Sense Market WrapUp for Tuesday, September 5th, 2006 speaks of this saying: "The indices in the charts for the week of of 9-5-06 did close above resistance, suggesting that the bulls will make a run towards the May/June highs. However, the divergences in almost all the indicators we follow also suggest that the indices won't be able to exceed those highs. To get a better picture, take a look at similarities in the charts below. The patterns of price, of the BSE, and of the T.O. are almost identical to the patterns we observed going into the May highs."

snip>

"September is notoriously the worst month of the year for the SPX. Since 1962 the monthly close of the SPX has been down in September 57% of the time, with only the month of July joining September with its head below sea level. Moreover, during Year 4 of the 4-Yr Cycle (that's where we are now) the SPX has closed down in September 70% of the time, with an average monthly change of -3%."

more...

[ozymandius]

2. One report today

3:00 PM Consumer Credit Jul
Briefing Forecast $7.5B
Market Expects $6.5B
Prior $10.3B

[JNelson6563]

14. I expect they will rename the reports soon

For instance, the "Consumer Credit Report" may become the "Double-plus-good Consumer Credit Report", "Employment Report" will be the "Good News on Jobs Report" and so on.

Julie

[ozymandius]

3. Oil slides to new five-month low

TOKYO (Reuters) - Oil extended a week of losses to strike a new five-month low under $67 on Friday after U.S. distillate supplies rose sharply and BP said it might be able to restore its Alaskan oilfield sooner than expected.

U.S. light crude for October delivery was down 53 cents at $66.79 a barrel by 0521 GMT after hitting a low of $66.75 a barrel, briefly surpassed Thursday's trough. Prices were falling for a fifth day to stand at their lowest since April 7.

London Brent crude fell 49 cents to $66.04.

Energy giant BP Plc said its Prudhoe Bay oilfield in Alaska, partially shut since August due to pipeline corrosion, could return to full capacity above 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) by end-October -- several months earlier than many estimates -- if regulators approved its plan to bypass a corroded pipeline.

more

[ozymandius]

4. Former BP executive declines to testify

WASHINGTON - The former head of pipeline-corrosion monitoring for BP in Alaska refused to testify under oath Thursday as outraged lawmakers grilled company officials over the causes of a massive oil spill earlier this year.

Richard C. Woollam, who was transferred to BP's Houston offices in 2005 amid concerns that he intimidated potential whistleblowers, invoked the Fifth Amendment of the Constitution in refusing to answer all questions from a House subcommittee.

Other BP executives apologized and pledged to fix operational lapses on the North Slope that led to the region's biggest ever oil spill in March and the partial shutdown last month of the country's largest oil field.

more

[54anickel]

17. "Mistakes"??? That was no freaking mistake!

snip>

Lawmakers said BP's mistakes in Alaska — as well as its responsibility for a deadly refinery fire last spring — were particularly unacceptable given the industry's record profits and the relatively inexpensive measures that might have prevented the oil spill.

With Congress aiming to wrap up its current session by the end of the month, Thursday's House hearing was not expected to result in any specific legislative action; it did, however, offer lawmakers an opportunity to talk tough to Big Oil at a time of soaring prices and ahead of November elections. :grr: :nuke:

[54anickel]

28. BP neglected pipelines, officials say (That's more like it!)

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060908/BUSINESS07/609080314/1020/business


snip>

Steve Marshall, head of BP's Alaska unit, said Thursday that in 2004 BP received allegations of "harassment, intimidation and retaliation" by Woollam. An outside investigator found that the behavior "had made some corrosion workers reluctant to raise health and safety concerns," he said.

BP transferred Woollam out of Alaska, and he is now on paid leave, according to Marshall.

Marshall also testified Thursday that in 2002, BP received two anonymous phone calls alleging falsification of corrosion inspection reports by contractors.

An outside firm audited the work and found that "a small percentage of inspections had indeed been falsified," Marshall said. The contractor fired the workers and three months later, BP brought in a new firm to do the inspections, he said.

snip>

The U.S. Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration has proposed rules to close a regulatory gap that let BP operate its lines without being subject to federal cleaning and inspection rules.

snip>

Former U.S. Sen. John Breaux, now a senior counsel for Patton Boggs LLP, Washington's biggest lobbying firm by revenue, said Congress will probably seek tougher regulations. :eyes:

more...

[ozymandius]

5. BP accused of distorting oil prices by blocking off storage plant

BP was on the receiving end of more legal trouble yesterday with a suit lodged in New York claiming that Britain's biggest company manipulated oil prices by blocking access to American storage facilities.

The action came 24 hours after the company's legal team was deemed to have acted "outside the box" by offering to pay $10m (£5.3m) into a church charity supported by a lawyer acting for some claimants from last year's fatal blast and fire at BP's Texas City refinery.

-cut-

The latest legal challenge comes from an oil futures trader, Richard Hershey, of St Louis, Missouri, who claims to have suffered damages caused by BP's refusal to open its storage facilities at Cushing, Oklahoma, in 2003 and 2004.

"BP abused its dominant position by not making space available at its crude oil storage facilities in Cushing to market participants who were obligated to deliver crude oil at Cushing," said the filing. The actions forced crude oil futures on the Nymex market to "trade at prices higher or lower than otherwise would have prevailed absent BP's conduct", it said.

http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,1866314,00.html

[ozymandius]

6. Judge halts petroleum lease sales

ANCHORAGE, Alaska - Interior Secretary Dirk Kempthorne expressed confidence in an upcoming oil lease sale in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska when he visited the North Slope last week. "We're set to go forward," Kempthorne said after taking a helicopter ride over a section of the vast reserve. But that sale will likely have to wait.

A judge on Thursday temporarily halted lease sales of more than 1 million acres in the NPR-A that environmentalists say are essential feeding and breeding grounds for caribou and migratory birds.

Nearly 13 million acres of the reserve in northern Alaska are available for lease sale or have been sold to oil companies, most notably ConocoPhillips. The company hopes to augment waning crude stocks in the Prudhoe Bay fields east of the NPR-A.

Environmentalists filed the lawsuit against the Department of the Interior, the state of Alaska and oil companies in hopes of cordoning off about 600,000 acres of the 23-million acre reserve from more exploratory drilling. The government had planned to open bids on Sept. 27 for about 1.7 million acres, which encompass the area targeted by environmentalists.

more

[spotbird]

26. Gas prices to drop this fall.

There is a LBN story about it up now.

The sad part is people will fall for it and vote Republican.

[54anickel]

35. Clarification of the Huge Chevron Gulf Oil Discovery

http://www.321energy.com/editorials/kirk/kirk090806.html

The September 5th announcement by Chevron and Devon and Statoil of the huge Gulf of Mexico discovery should be clarified. The announcement claims that the discovery could increase US proven reserves of oil by as much as 50%. However, the total amounts are highly speculative. Additionally, the discovery likely won't impact oil markets but could potentially impact natural gas markets since the discovery is probably mainly natural gas. The area will not come online for at least 4 years and, at a full rate, for at least 7 years. Further, it is likely that there are political motivations behind the announcement, as the vote to open offshore drilling in the United States is upcoming in the US Senate.

1. The range of amount -- from 3 billion to 15 billion (in itself a huge range -- reserves of Exxon Mobile are around 14 billion barrels total) is comprised of no single field of more than 300 million barrels. An entire area of as much as 15 billion barrels with no "giant" over 1 Bn bar oil field is unusual. Oil discoveries tend to cluster with a giant (King) and several queens and even more jacks.

snip>

6. The US Senate is weeks away from voting on the lifting of the 25-year ban on offshore drilling off the majority of the coasts in the US. This offshore drilling bill was approved in the Congress but political analysts believe the bill will face more opposition in the Senate. The oil industry stands to make high profits if Congress will open up Florida and the Offshore East coast to drilling. To date the offshore drilling bill has not been approved by both houses because of environmental interests. A large potential oil "discovery" in the Gulf would provide evidence that the passing of the offshore oil bill would be beneficial.

7. Related to point #6, the announcement is reminiscent of the Mexican "huge oil discovery" announced last year, of a possible 10 billion barrels, which was quietly revised this year to around 43 million barrels, a downward revision of 99.57%. This similar "discovery" was made in Mexico last year a few months before the Mexican parliament was to vote on Pemex (state oil co)'s budget and rights to expand drilling. This illustrates the potential political pressure to announce oil and gas discoveries.

more...


I wasn't going to post this one, but seeing as how the topic of reserves came up.....

Beware of Resources and Reserves
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Cook/sep52006.html

The St. Petersburg Times reported in 2004 that Altai’s top geologist, Anotoly Zaitsev, believed “undiscovered reserves” in southern Altai could exceed 160 million ounces of gold. The ingenious juxtaposition of limitless potential “undiscovered” with cold hard fact “reserves” is perfect in rendering any economic assessment of the claim impossible. Although Mr. Zaitsev could potentially be correct, so am I in claiming that there are hundreds of millions of ounces of “undiscovered gold reserves” in the ocean I am looking at from my office window (water temperature 70 degrees with swell increasing over the weekend). And I submit that finding these undiscovered ounces off the Southern California coast is a much more pleasurable and equally rewarding proposition than trudging across the bitterly cold and desolate Siberian wastelands looking for those “undiscovered reserves” of Mr. Zaitsev’s. Looking back a few years, some of you may recall a Mr. John Felderhof who made a similar claim when he reported to have found 200 million ounces of gold in Borneo while working for a company named Bre-X.

As a direct result of the ensuing fiasco caused by the bogus reserve announcements in Borneo, a number of new laws, regulations and guidelines were enacted to define and qualify reserve and resource statements by Canadian and Australian public companies (Russia seems to fall outside these regulations). Most significant among these is Canadian National Instrument 43-101, a rule developed by the Canadian Securities Administrators, and administered by the provincial securities commissions, that governs how scientific and technical information about mineral projects is disclosed to the public. Essentially, NI 43-101 requires that resources and reserves be reported by a “Qualified Person” who is a licensed geoscientist sufficiently competent in the mineral deposit being reported on. Furthermore, the requisites for claiming reserves and resources were generally outlined with the intention of conveying a level of confidence that the mineral deposit can be mined economically.

Very generally, a mineral “resource” is no more than a concentration of mineralization that has been defined by sampling and might be of economic interest. Terms such as “might” and “economic interest” are important qualifiers here. The three resource sub categories, in increasing order of confidence are inferred, indicated and measured, with measured offering the most certainty that there is sufficient geologic, drill hole and sample data to confirm the continuity and grade of mineralization.

A mineral “reserve” is the economically mineable part of the resource, as set out by the incorporation of mining, metallurgical, processing and other relevant economic factors at stated metal prices, which is reported in at least a preliminary feasibility study. Reserves are broken down into two sub categories as well: proven and probable. Proven reserves represent the highest confidence level and are derived from measured resources that show economic viability. Probable reserves are comprised of measured and indicated resources (lower confidence level) that would fall into the proven category if they are confirmed to exist as expected.

more...

[ozymandius]

7. Builders Brace for a Housing Downturn

The housing market is looking sicker by the day. On Sept. 7, the perpetually optimistic National Association of Realtors acknowledged for the first time that housing prices are likely to fall on a year-over-year basis, at least for a time.

Beazer Homes USA (BZH) and KB Home (KBH) lowered their earnings guidance. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen is warning that a housing slowdown will weaken consumer spending, which is 70% of the economy. And economists issued new forecasts showing that a slowdown in housing could reduce growth to barely above recession levels. All that came one day after Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) announced a 35% decline in earnings per fully diluted share for its latest fiscal quarter.

Overshadowed by all the bad news was a tidbit that once would have been seen as a big positive for housing: mortgage rates remain quite reasonable. Freddie Mac said Sept. 7 that the national average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.47% in the latest week. That's down from 6.72% as recently as late July.

MOUNTAIN FOOTBALL. Mortgage rates, shmortgage rates. No one's paying attention to the cost of borrowing money these days because it seems trivial next to the risk of losing money by buying high and selling low—catching a falling knife, in the Wall Street vernacular.

more

[54anickel]

20. Some Housing Pessimism From Real Estate Brokers

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/08/business/08home.html?ref=business

snip>

The latest report to predict a decline in the housing sector was notable for its source. The assessment from the National Association of Realtors, which has until recently been generally upbeat about the health of housing, was the group’s least optimistic yet.

“The boom is cooling now,” said David Lereah, the chief economist for the association, who added that falling home sales have been “a bit worse than we had anticipated.”

The group said that it now expected sales to fall further than it has said in the past — about 7.5 percent this year compared with an earlier projection of a 5 percent decline. It also said it expected prices nationwide to drop during the next few months, instead of appreciating modestly. If that happens, it would be the first time since 1993 that median home prices have fallen in any given month.

snip>

The Realtors’ association said it expected both home prices and sales would slide in the coming months as the upper hand in the housing market shifts from the seller to the buyer. But that shift has yet to occur fully, with buyers and sellers staring each other down while unsold houses pile up.

“The seller is a lot more stubborn than any of us had anticipated,” Mr. Lereah said. “Sellers for the last five years have been in control. It’s very hard for them to give up control and revise their expectations downward.”

But once sellers begin to drop their asking prices, housing industry officials hope that home sales will start to rise again. :eyes:

snip>

The Realtors’ association predicted that, at most, prices will decline for two or three months before picking back up again. For the year, home prices are still expected to appreciate, on average. Not since the Depression have home prices fallen over the course of a full year.

more...

[54anickel]

29. Lennar Says Profit Missed Its Estimate on Incentives

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aVtTsbFnUs7E&refer=us

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Lennar Corp., the third-largest U.S. homebuilder by market value, said fiscal third-quarter profit missed its estimate because of higher incentives to buyers.

Earnings in the three months ended Aug. 31 amounted to $1.25 to $1.35 a share, the Miami-based company said today in a statement. That compares with the average analysts' estimate of $1.81 a share, according to a Thomson Financial survey. Lennar said preliminary net new orders fell 5 percent in the quarter.

``The U.S. housing market has continued to deteriorate,'' Chief Executive Officer Stuart Miller said in the statement. ``Increased sales incentives, along with certain land adjustments, were the primary factors in lowering our earnings per share estimate.''

Across the U.S., the median price of new homes probably will rise 0.2 percent on an annualized basis in 2006, the worst performance since prices fell in 1991, National Association of Realtors chief economist David Lereah said yesterday.

Lennar is the third U.S. homebuilder to reduce its forecast this week as the five-year housing market boom comes to an end. Beazer Homes USA Inc. and KB Home slashed their estimates for fiscal 2006 because of a slump in demand for new houses.

more...

[ozymandius]

8. Alcatel buyout of Lucent OK'd

PARIS -- Shareholders on both sides of the Atlantic voted yesterday to approve Alcatel's acquisition of Lucent Technologies in a deal valued at about $12.2 billion Cdn that will create a major global player in the telecommunications equipment industry.

The deal will "create a group that is truly global, and which has no equivalent today," Alcatel chief executive officer Serge Tchuruk told company stockholders.

The Paris-based company's shareholders backed all the relevant resolutions by more than 85 per cent. A two-thirds majority was required.

In Delaware, Lucent shareholders narrowly voted in favour of the deal, based on the preliminary vote count. About 2.3 billion shares, or 52 per cent of outstanding shares, were voted in favour of the deal, officials said. Only a simple majority of the votes was required for approval.

little bit more

[ozymandius]

9. Time to go, my friends.

:donut: :donut: :donut:
Duty elsewhere calls. But before I go, I did want to set something strait as this news garnered a fair amount of attention.

Three weeks before our recent move into a new-and-improved pad, we decided not to buy. There is something to be said about forces in the universe: a huge invisible hand was pushing against us finding a suitable place (in square footage, condition and location). We are adventurous enough to qualify as urban pioneers - but not so much that we would put our 4 year-old son at risk when he riding his trike outside.

We were approved for a 30-year fixed rate loan at 6.625%. Then at three weeks before our move date we could find nothing worth the money. There were two fixer-uppers that I could have tackled with some minor carpentry work. Still it was hard to imagine finding the time to work on a place while we lived inside it.

So we decided to rent. Good thing too. Because the upside-down real estate market that we read about on this thread is happening here too. I've scanned the craigslist.org and other real estate pages from two and three months ago. Now, as then, I see the same properties being advertised. 'Sluggish' would be a flattering description.

AnneD and her husband are very smart with their decision to rent for awhile longer. This housing environment requires a weighty measure of caution on the decision: to buy or rent.

Have a great day and a wonderful weekend folks!

Ozy :hi:

[KayLaw]

11. That's great!

I don't know where you live, but I follow all the housing bubble news and just read an article about the housing bubble in Japan. The moral of the story is: Don't catch a falling knife.

:toast:

[AnneD]

23. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: and lurkers. There lot's of room in this boat for the Ozy clan :grouphug: I am starting to hear the band on the Titanic striking up a tune-something cheerful so as not to cause a panic. We also decided that should we need to, we will maybe move up to a nicer apt, but right now we are happy where we are. We are not upside down in a house or have a huge mortgage. No matter how bad thing get, we can make ends meet. We want to only owe for a house and nothing other than utilities. When you can put a lot down, you can get great deals, even with high interest rates in a down RE market. Remember...they want YOUR money.


Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[JNelson6563]

46. You're like a Svengali!

;-) Glad you held tight. This is definitely a wait-and-see market.

Hope it's all good in your world Oz!

Julie

[NC_Nurse]

10. Hi Ozy!

Great toon! :hi:

[UpInArms]

12. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 85.70 Change +0.12 (+0.14%)

Gold, Silver Tumble Most in 7 Weeks as Dollar Gains Versus Euro

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aq25OGBf2Ui8&refer=home

Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Gold and silver in New York tumbled the most in seven weeks as the dollar strengthened against the euro, eroding the appeal of precious metals as an alternative investment.

Gold and silver generally move in the opposite direction of the dollar, which reached a three-week high against a basket of six major currencies today. Gold has gained 20 percent this year and silver has jumped 43 percent, while the dollar has lost 7 percent against the euro.

``Dollar strength is hurting the metals,'' said Frank McGhee, head metals trader at Integrated Brokerage Services in Chicago. ``Every fund is hitting the door at the same time.''

Gold futures for December delivery fell $16.90, or 2.6 percent, to $624.90 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, marking the biggest percentage drop since July 18. Prices still are up 39 percent from year ago.

Silver for December delivery dropped 50.5 cents, or 3.8 percent, to $12.695 an ounce. Prices reached $13.37 on Sept. 5, the highest since May 17. The metal still has surged 78 percent in the past year.

<snip>

``The dollar is at the top of its recent range, and that's not good for gold,'' said Frank Lesh, a trader at FuturePath Trading LLC in Chicago.

...more...

[54anickel]

31. Look at that turkey fly today!

Last trade 85.98 Change +0.40 (+0.47%)

Settle Time 15:00 Open 85.56

Previous Close 85.58 High 86.06

Low 85.51 2006-09-08 10:56:22, 30 min delay

[54anickel]

33. Housing Slumps...Today's Pfenning

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=934

snip>

The dollar continued to rally overnight and is ending the week stronger than it began vs. just about every currency. The weekly jobless claims released yesterday showed a slight pick-up in employment as they fell from a revised 319k last week to 310k this week. I don't believe this improving labor market will be enough to override a housing market that continues to sink and an economy that is clearly slowing. U.S. home prices will likely fall for the first time since 1993, according to a report released yesterday by the National Association of Realtors. The report points to a record number of homes for sale with more new inventory coming available.

SF Federal Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen was defending the FOMC's pause from two years of interest-rate increases and said inflation may recede "faster than many forecasters expect." You know our opinion on inflation (if not, you can read it in the latest EverBanker newsletter), but Yellen continues to warn that the most recent increases by the Fed have not yet been fully felt. "With lags in policy we haven't yet seen the full effect of our past actions." Sounds like she is already voting for another pause.

snip>

Ty Keough, who sits next to me on the trade desk, brought the following to my attention. It is from Doug Casey who wrote an article in the latest Review and Focus. I think you will enjoy reading his opinion on the fate of the U.S. dollar:

"Similarly, foreign owners of the big green mountain of U.S. dollars have become uneasy and generally are looking to sell. There’s no dumping, at least not yet. When it comes, the flight from the dollar will start slowly, then gain momentum before moving into a blow-off. Like a glacier sliding toward a cliff, movement that seems inevitable may take a puzzlingly long time to get underway. But once it does, things speed up at a surprising rate. Most of what happens happens rapidly, toward the end of the process.

Given the choice between (A) a dead housing market and scorched-earth depression in the U.S and (B) a collapsing currency, which at least has the virtue of reducing the real cost of paying off all those Treasury bonds, I’m forced to believe the U.S. government will choose (B) and sacrifice the dollar." You can certainly see Doug has an opinion (which melds pretty well with my own)! If you haven't read Mr. Casey's columns before, go to www.caseyresearch.com for his full views on the world.

more...

[54anickel]

44. Treasuries rise on Fed hints rates to stay on hold

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-09-08T150859Z_01_N08376583_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-2.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 8 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices rose on Friday as a Federal Reserve official's remarks reinforced the market's belief that interest rates are on hold and may not rise further.

Treasury prices briefly extended their gains after Cleveland Federal Reserve President Sandra Pianalto said that stability of inflation expectations had been a factor in her support of a pause in the central bank's interest rate hikes last month.

A reversal of positions from profit-taking earlier in the week and security concerns ahead of Monday's fifth anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks also boosted demand for Treasuries, some analysts said.

"We had a pretty drastic move to the upside in yields earlier in the week and you have this commentary out of (San Francisco Fed President Janet) Yellen yesterday and Pianalto today I view as being dovish and that is trying to steer the market into a pause (in rates)," said George Goncalves, treasury and agency trading strategist with Banc of America Securities in New York.

more...

[dweller]

13. anyone following Disney stock?

curious what activity is going on with them these days.

dp

[54anickel]

30. Haven't been paying much attention. Looks like it's up from 1 year ago

but it's been a bit choppy the last couple of days. Was up earlier this am, but headed down now.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=DIS

[dunn]

40. I've been watching the Disney stock message board on Yahoo.

There is a lot of interesting posts regarding "The Path to 911" controversy. But it looks like we need more posts from progressives on there.

Here is the link:

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Services/Recreational_Activities/messagesview?bn=5217

[54anickel]

15. 9:30 and open for bidness

Dow 11,340.88 +9.44 (+0.08%)
Nasdaq 2,159.18 +3.89 (+0.18%)
S&P 500 1,295.27 +1.25 (+0.10%)
10-yr Bond 4.777 -0.018 (-0.38%)
30-yr Bond 4.922 -0.017 (-0.34%)
NYSE Volume 19,666,000
Nasdaq Volume 28,526,000

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.0.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.5. Stage remains set for stocks to recover some lost ground as a sense that the recent sell-off, which has erased at least half of the August gains for the major averages, has been overdone. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 1.7%, 2.1% and 4.4%, respectively, last month but have lost 1.3%, 1.5%, and 2.3% since Tuesday while a 2.9% decline over two days on the Russell 2000 has wiped out all of the small-cap index’s August performance.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.5. Still shaping up to be a modestly higher start for the indices as futures indications continue to find support above fair value. Be that as it may, Lennar (LEN) becoming the latest homebuilder to issue a profit warning, National Semiconductor (NSM) saying Q2 sales will miss forecasts and Broadcom (BRCM) finding more stock option irregularities suggest this morning's positive disposition is nothing more than a rebound following two days of profit taking.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.2. Futures versus fair value suggest stocks may bounce back after selling off for two straight days. However, without much for investors to sink their teeth into from a news standpoint, there isn't much conviction on the part of buyers at the moment as a holiday-shortened week comes to an end and another light volume trading day perhaps resulting in some choppiness throughout the session.

06:36 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.5.

06:33 am : FTSE...5876.90...+18.80...+0.3%. DAX...5786.59...+12.87...+0.2%.

06:33 am : Nikkei...16080.46...+68.05...+0.4%. Hang Seng...17145.76...+49.32...+0.3%.

[54anickel]

16. Stocks Higher After 2 Days of Losses

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060908/wall_street.html?.v=4

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks are higher in early trading after two days of sharp losses, with a steady hand from the Bank of Japan and further energy price declines setting the stage for a modest recovery.

snip>

U.S. stocks ended lower Thursday after Federal Reserve official Janet Yellen hinted at further interest rate hikes in a market worried that a string of seventeen rate increases over more than two years has already brought about a sharper-than-expected slowdown in economic growth.

snip>

Yellen's colleague, Sandra Pianalto, is due to speak at a conference on inflation expectations and monetary policy. She starts her speech at 9 a.m. EDT.

snip>

Overseas, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates at 0.25 percent. The dollar continued to gain ground against the British pound after recent turmoil from Tony Blair's announcement that he will step down as prime minister sometime in the next year.

snip>

Crude-oil futures continued to drop, hovering around the $67-a-barrel level in electronic trading.

BP indicated it could get its Prudhoe Bay pipeline in Alaska pumping at full capacity by the end of October, if the U.S. government gives its alternative pipeline plan approval. BP shares rose in London.

more...

"alternative pipeline plan approval"??? :shrug: I must have missed something again

[PhilYerHead]

24. I think that writer missed something

From June 15th:
"The company is pleased the PIPELINE administration is allowing the pipelines to keep operating and that it has given preliminary approval to alternative pipeline testing methods BP proposed, Beaudo said."


U.S. Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration

http://www.sitnews.us/0606news/061506/061506_shns_prudhoe_leak.html

[54anickel]

27. Welcome PhilYerHead and thank you for the link. That "truckloads of

sludge" statement helped me to envision just how large these pipelines are...34 inches in diameter, 3 were ordered pigged. Wonder how many miles of pipeline are in that pig order.

BP wanted relief from the pigging deadlines not only to cut out the length of pipe for the grand jury, but to prepare a plan for how to handle the truckloads of sludge the cleaner pigs are expected to push out of the pipelines, Beaudo said. BP must coordinate that with Alyeska Pipeline Service Co., which runs the trans-Alaska line. BP owns nearly half of Alyeska.

[54anickel]

18. Oh lookie, the PTB are getting ready to shop for our pony for the '08 race

New Role for Rubin: Policy Guru
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/08/business/08wall.html?_r=2&ref=business&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

snip>

“I am a little pebble of sand on the beach,” Mr. Rubin, 68, said this summer, speaking on a panel for his new policy initiative, the Hamilton Project. “So what I say does not matter anymore.”

It was a classic form of a Bob Rubin koan. Asked why he didn’t use his sway on Wall Street to prod policy makers in Congress, he offered up a slight smile and a nod of his gray head. So self-denying was the assertion that it bordered on self-aggrandizement. The audience, let in on the joke, laughed. :eyes:

But, as Democrats hope to take over control of the House from Republicans and as an aspiring presidential class of 2008 becomes more assertive, the Hamilton Project, named after the founding father and onetime Treasury secretary Alexander Hamilton, is arguably Mr. Rubin’s most overt political act since he stepped down from the Treasury in 1999. Mr. Rubin, naturally, denies any such crass intent.

Housed in the Brookings Institution, the initiative embraces a number of mainstream economic prescriptions — like the necessity of equitable international trade agreements, the virtues of a balanced budget, and making economic growth more broad-based — that capture Mr. Rubin’s eat-your-spinach approach to policy making.

But by addressing issues like the costs to the economy of excessive litigation and regulation, Mr. Rubin intends to make the project a laboratory for the type of pragmatic, ideology-free policies that appeal to the project’s Wall Street advisers while also hoping to lure Democratic presidential candidates away from populist economic positions. And with Mr. Rubin and his successor and friend Lawrence H. Summers on board, it will also be a training ground for the next crop of financiers with ambitions to shape policy in a Democratic administration.

They include those who have done so, like Roger C. Altman, the chairman of Evercore and a former deputy Treasury secretary; those who aspire to do so, like Steven Rattner of Quadrangle, the private equity firm; and, perhaps most important, younger Wall Street executives just now flirting with the idea.

It is with this last group of executives, drawn largely from the booming world of hedge funds and private equity, that Mr. Rubin has loomed large as an Obi-Wan Kenobi figure.

more...

[AnneD]

38. I was actually reading about the Hamilton Project

http://www1.hamiltonproject.org/es/hamilton/hamilton_hp.htm

Their proposal for effective government (click gov. on the home page) ....

"The Hamilton Project will propose ways to:


increase government productivity and efficiency
realign government's activities in response to changing circumstances
reform government regulation so that it efficiently guides private firms when necessary without unduly hampering them
reduce government expenditures and increase government revenues to ensure that the Project's proposals do not exacerbate an already dangerous fiscal imbalance "

Sounds like a screw job to me, nicely worded, but still a screw job.:eyes:

[54anickel]

41. Born-Again Rubinomics

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20060731/greider

snip>

So it's a big deal when Robert Rubin changes the subject and begins to talk about income inequality as "a deeply troubling fact of American economic life" that threatens the trading system, even the stability of "capitalist, democratic society." More startling, Rubin now freely acknowledges what the American establishment for many years denied or dismissed as inconsequential--globalization's role in generating the thirty-year stagnation of US wages, squeezing middle-class families and below, while directing income growth mainly to the upper brackets. A lot of Americans already knew this. Critics of "free trade" have been saying as much for years. But when Bob Rubin says it, his words can move politicians, if not financial markets.

Rubin has launched the Hamilton Project, a policy group of like-minded economists and financiers who are developing ameliorative measures to aid the threatened workforce and, he hopes, to create a broader political constituency that will defend the trading system against popular backlash. A strategy paper Rubin co-wrote defines the core problem: "Prosperity has neither trickled down nor rippled outward. Between 1973 and 2003, real GDP per capita in the United States increased 73 percent, while real median hourly compensation rose only 13 percent."

snip>

What should we make of Rubin's heightened concern for the "losers" who, he now recognizes, include a vast portion of the populace? Many view the Hamilton Project as just more talk-talk. I regard it as an important event--a "course correction" in elite thinking that, given Rubin's influence, may reshape the familiar trade debate, at least among Democrats. Rubin's central objective, however, is to control the terms of debate: to address the economic disparities globalization has generated but without disturbing anything fundamental in the global system itself.

His program consists mostly of familiar ideas that might soften the pain for displaced workers. But I doubt the Hamilton proposals will do much, if anything, to reduce the global forces that are depressing incomes for half or more of the American workforce. Even Rubin is uncertain. When I ask if his agenda will have any effect at all on the global convergence of wages--the top falling gradually toward the rising bottom--he says: "Well, I think that's a question to which nobody knows the answer. I think the proposals and approach we are proposing are the way to get the best possible outcome for the United States in a complicated world.... But whether that's going to stop the global convergence of wages, I don't know the answer to that. I would guess the answer is no."

snip>

The Hamilton Project's early policy output, I concede, doesn't encourage a belief that reasoned dialogue with dissenters is what Rubin has in mind. Advisory board members see themselves as progressive-minded, but they do not stray from the mainstream's conventional wisdom--lots of Harvard, Princeton and Berkeley, no one from the ranks of "free trade" skeptics. The twenty-five-member board includes thirteen investment bankers, venture capitalists and hedge-fund managers from Wall Street and the West Coast--guys who, like Rubin, do the investment deals at home and abroad.

snip>

The "soft" ideas in the Hamilton Project playbook are mostly old ideas--improve education and retraining, provide "wage insurance" payments to dislocated workers, increase public investment in industrial development and infrastructure. All are worthy things to do, but they seem like tinkering around the edges. Ron Blackwell, chief economist of the AFL-CIO, observes, "What they've got going are these little ideas that sound like they are forward-looking and respond to the problem of living standards, but they don't speak to power."

snip>

There's one large and looming problem with that logic: The number of "losers" whose jobs are outsourced to foreign labor markets is getting much larger than the establishment had envisioned, and the job losses are creeping up the income ladder to undermine people in well-educated, highly paid occupations. In a startling Foreign Affairs essay, Alan Blinder warned that "tens of millions" of job losses are ahead from outsourcing, not for the already decimated blue-collar workers in manufacturing but for accountants, software designers and other high-status professions. These are people who presumably did the "right thing" by getting advanced educations. How, I ask Blinder, does educational improvement help them, since they are already well educated? "I wish I knew the answer to that," Blinder replies. "On balance, more education is better than less education, but it's not a panacea." He talks vaguely of changing the style of American schooling.

Blinder's ominous forecast for high-skilled jobs is another belated recognition by establishment authorities that they were wrong, since the process of moving engineering work to Asia, where they could hire cheaper engineers, started two decades ago. Free-trade advocates like Blinder are complacent about the loss of manufacturing jobs, comparing it to the technological changes that wiped out agricultural employment a century ago. "It's pretty inevitable," he says. They seem more worried now that white-collar jobs are being wiped out. But they think it would be a big mistake to interfere. "It's like global warming," he explains. "If there is severe global warming, you may have to change the preparations for bad weather." But Blinder's "global warming" metaphor actually expresses the viewpoint of the other side. Like global warming, the trading system is not an act of nature. It is a set of man-made rules--protecting capital and ignoring labor. Finance and industry persuaded government to adopt these terms. But they can be altered, just as government can order industry to reform itself to curb the dangers of global warming. That difference--deference to the status quo versus a vision for reform--is the nut of the argument between the two sides.

lots more....


Democratic candidates seeking Wall Street campaign money hope for Rubin's blessing, a seal of approval that can open checkbooks.

[AnneD]

47. OK....

so he just wants to screw us a little less than his friends. What this means is that the GOP economic ideas are a failure but they don't want to admit it. The only time the economy has done decently or started a recovery has been under the DEM's. People will drag out Carter but remember he inherited it from Nixon and Ford (who can ever forget those stupid WIN buttons). Let's face it know what they are doing with their alleged 'tax and spend'. That's right, you have to raise taxes if you have to spend. That's called a "balanced" budget. If you want the economy to grow, you have to make wise spending choices. Morans!

[54anickel]

50. Actually it depends on where you're at. The GOP economic ideas

have been a huge success for the PTB in this plutocracy/kleptocracy or whatever the hell you want to call it. Cripes, they even managed to get the majority of the public being screwed to see it as a great idea. Meanwhile the working class poor have been either kept too busy working trying to keep their heads above water or have been completely disenfranchised with the "system" that they don't even bother to partake in their "democracy".

Pretty damned successful from where they are sitting. They see the possible end of the GOP dynasty coming, so they've got to come up with a fresh face to the same old game. The last thing they want or need is this "populist" craze that's been catching on elsewhere to take root here.

Remember, Carter wasn't from their stable, he sort of slipped in there on them. Ain't no way they want to deal with a repeat of that.

[54anickel]

19. Backdating Scandal Hits Retailers

http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/7900923/c_7901090?f=home_todayinfinance

Home Depot, Sharper Image, and The Gap report probes at various stages

The options backdating scandal has been affecting companies in various ways. Most recently, for instance, three retailers reported troubles in the area. On Wednesday evening Home Depot announced in its quarterly filing that the SEC had launched an informal inquiry into the company’s option practices. The company also said that the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York has requested information on this subject.

The home improvement giant has also asked its board of directors complete a review of the company’s historical option practices.

Separately, Sharper Image Corp. announced On Thursday morning that its board had launched an independent review of the company's historical stock-option practices and related accounting matters.

The company reported that a special board committee is conducting the review with the aid of independent lawyers and accounting experts. As a result, the specialty company said it would seek five more days to file its quarterly report for the fiscal period ended July 31, Sharper Image offered assurances that it would meet that deadline.

more...

[54anickel]

21. Rewards, risks as Chinese embrace credit

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2006-09-08T115545Z_01_T51474_RTRUKOC_0_US-FINANCIAL-SUMMIT-CHINA-BANKS.xml&pageNumber=0&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=NewsArt-C1-ArticlePage3

BEIJING (Reuters) - As China evolves from a nation of savers to one of borrowers and investors, banks are salivating over the prospects, but risks loom in a market where consumer credit is a novelty and competition is intensifying.

By global standards, China's 1.3 billion people have only dabbled in financial services. While households have stashed away some $2 trillion in savings, rates of credit card usage, mortgage loans and car ownership are among the lowest in the world.

That is changing fast as China's surging economy creates an expanding consumer class. JP Morgan (JPM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) expects retail lending in China, including mortgages, credit cards and car loans, to grow from US$247 billion currently to US$1 trillion by 2010.

Consumer loans are equivalent to just 14 percent of gross domestic product in China, compared with 59 percent in Hong Kong and 65 percent in South Korea, while the market for investment products is also underdeveloped.

"The consumer business is in an early stage," Richard Stanley, China chief executive at top global financial firm Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research) told the Reuters China Century Summit this week. "In the long term it will be our biggest business in China."

more...

[54anickel]

22. HSBC Salsa Banker Shows China How to Go Shopping

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_pesek&sid=aYS7cdRVek04

snip>

China's government, on the other hand, may be a different story. The fast-growing wealth of currency reserves in Asia's No. 2 economy is approaching the $1 trillion mark. There are rainy- day funds, and then there are hoards of cash that reach bubble- like proportions. One wonders if China's reserves are now just like the latter.

The reason for the cash buildup is to maintain a stable exchange rate. When you rely on exports, an accommodative currency regime makes sense. What makes less sense is how Asia's reserve fetish seems to be taking on a life of its own. It's a trap of sorts; as Asians buy more and more U.S. Treasuries, it becomes harder to unload them, causing huge capital losses.

Asian central banks are in the odd position of being bigger clients of U.S. government debt than hedge funds are -- hardly their intention. Rather than just steering economies with interest rates, central bankers are managing their investments as never before. Simply put, Asia's reserve buildup -- about $3 trillion at the moment -- has become absurd.

snip>

$1 Trillion Ideas

Here are eight things China could do with some or all of its $1 trillion of reserves:

-- Buy India. Why not just put to rest all these China versus India analyses and grab Asia's fourth-biggest economy? With the flick of a pen, China could get its hands on a billion- plus-person nation, more than 50 percent of which is younger than 25. Overnight, China's English-proficiency rankings would get a big boost. So would its software and service industries.

What's more, the price tag for India's economy -- $775 billion -- leaves plenty left over to grab New Zealand, home to lots of natural resources that Chinese industry needs.

more...

[54anickel]

25. China Has Record $18.8 Bln Trade Surplus, Dow Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=aa7R7kFd6YOo&refer=china

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- China's trade surplus widened to a record $18.8 billion last month as exports soared the most in a year, Dow Jones Newswires reported, citing a person it didn't identify.

The gap, if confirmed, is more than a quarter bigger than the previous record of $14.6 billion, set in July. Economists expected the surplus to be little changed, according to the median of 21 estimates collected by Bloomberg News ahead of an official release scheduled for Sept. 11. The customs bureau declined to comment.

The ballooning trade surplus may flood China's economy with cash, hampering government efforts to rein in lending and investment and putting more pressure on Premier Wen Jiabao to let the yuan appreciate faster. Exports surged 33 percent last month to a record $90.77 billion, Dow Jones said.

``The root cause of China's excessive investment and rapid credit growth is an undervalued currency,'' said Wang Qing, head of China research at Bank of America in Hong Kong. ``These problems aren't going to go away unless the government allows the yuan to rise.''

more...

[54anickel]

32. Gold Drops to Two-Month Low on Speculation Demand Won't Pick Up

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602013&sid=aqEqwVRrfwcQ&refer=commodity_futures

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Gold in New York fell to a two-month low on speculation demand from investors and jewelers won't pick up in the fourth quarter.

Merrill Lynch & Co. yesterday said gold will average $625 an ounce this year, down 3.8 percent from a forecast of $650. Jewelers, the biggest buyers, slashed purchases in the first half, according to the producer-funded World Gold Council. Gold, which reached a 26-year high in May, is down 2.8 percent this week.

``At this stage, we've got to start looking for support down at $600,'' said Michael Guido, director of hedge fund marketing at Societe Generale in New York. ``A lot of confidence has been stripped out of the market.''

Gold futures for December delivery fell $9.90, or 1.6 percent, to $615 an ounce at 9:08 a.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices earlier touched $613.50, the lowest since June 30. On May 12, the metal reached $732, the highest since January 1980. on May 12.

[54anickel]

34. Gold and Crude Oil Will Exchange Bullish Positions (Gold-buggy)

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wiegand/sep72006.html

snip>

For awhile it seemed gold had decoupled from the U. S. Dollar and we reported this more than once. However, in the last 60 days gold has again found its position trading inversely with the dollar. United States interest rates paused last month as we had forecast. With the election in November, the party in charge will move forward with a full court press doing everything possible to ship-shape news perfecting appearances all is well. This could include more mystical jobs numbers, interest rate cuts before the election, spinning-up positive Middle Eastern War news, and spending tax-payers money more freely proclaiming positive administration news for re-election. The Detroit News reported today several incumbent and new politicians are distancing themselves from the President and some of his policies. We are expecting politically induced market distractions this fall that bode well for precious metals.

In reality, we have stagflation with the worst of both worlds; higher inflation in food and energy and deflation in pricing power. Sales for corporations and the retail sector appear weaker. August pumped retail a little which we attribute to back-to-school-spending for kids’ needs. A recession will be officially apparent in late 2006 or early 2007 as genuine numbers can no longer be hidden. The American housing industry is now in a free-fall.

The dollar will become weaker and interest rates lowered to contain deflation. Credit is advanced in every way possible to keep the game afloat. Pushing on a loose easy credit string never works when consumers are tapped out and refuse to buy. Since the enormous bond market (70 times larger than stock markets) will immediately react to this easy money, there is big trouble ahead in bonds.

From May to current date, dollar formed a diamond chart pattern which is very negative. N ote the lower closings on the last two weekly bars in this September on U. S. Dollar Weekly Futures Chart. When 83.10 is broken we sink to 80.00.

snip to another possible effect of the drought>

Oil supply is always a question mark but refining capacity is critical. Should refined gas arriving in tankers be curtailed or interrupted, several markets will go nuts. If gasoline becomes tight, crude oil and the rest of the energy sector will rally with gold and silver. Further, do not underestimate the power in distillates providing heating oil for the Northeastern United States. Jet fuel for airlines and diesel for transport is equally important. Mississippi River water is low from drought. Barge shipping weights are curtailed for lower water. Great Lakes shipping has the identical problem as lake water is four feet below normal. Railroads are short of enough track and rolling stock which tightens these transportation sources. These latter sources are the cheapest and they are cannot increase capacity while continuing to lose productive delivery.

more...

[54anickel]

37. OT - Bush Aims to Kill War Crimes Act

http://www.thenation.com/docprint.mhtml?i=20060918&s=brecher

The US War Crimes Act of 1996 makes it a felony to commit grave violations of the Geneva Conventions. The Washington Post recently reported that the Bush administration is quietly circulating draft legislation to eliminate crucial parts of the War Crimes Act. Observers on The Hill say the Administration plans to slip it through Congress this fall while there still is a guaranteed Republican majority--perhaps as part of the military appropriations bill, the proposals for Guantánamo tribunals or a new catch-all "anti-terrorism" package. Why are they doing it, and how can they be stopped?

American prohibitions on abuse of prisoners go back to the Lieber Code promulgated by Abraham Lincoln in 1863. The first international Geneva Convention dates from the following year.

After World War II, international law protecting prisoners of war and all noncombatants was codified in the Geneva Conventions. They were ratified by the US Senate and, under Article II of the Constitution, they thereby became the law of the land.

Wishing to rebuke the unpunished war crimes of dictators like Saddam Hussein, in 1996 a Republican-dominated Congress passed the War Crimes Act without a dissenting vote. It defined a "war crime" as any "grave breach" of the Geneva Conventions. It thereby advanced a global trend of mutual reinforcement between national and international law.

The War Crimes Act was little noticed until the disclosure of Alberto Gonzales's infamous 2002 "torture memo." Gonzales, then serving as presidential counsel, advised President Bush to declare that the Geneva Conventions did not apply to people the United States captured in Afghanistan. That, Gonzales wrote, "substantially reduced the threat of domestic criminal prosecution under the War Crimes Act."

more...

[AnneD]

39. At this point...

I would be willing to turn these folks over to the Hague for prosecution and for the sake of our reputation as a country of laws, I think we should. That would be the quickest way to undo the damage that has been done.

[54anickel]

42. 1:48 update

Dow 11,379.95 +48.51 (+0.43%)
Nasdaq 2,163.67 +8.38 (+0.39%)
S&P 500 1,297.31 +3.29 (+0.25%)
10-yr Bond 4.765 -0.03 (-0.63%)
30-yr Bond 4.911 -0.028 (-0.57%)
NYSE Volume 1,268,817,000
Nasdaq Volume 916,613,000

1:30 pm : Stocks finally find a catalyst to break out of their relatively tight ranges -- oil. Prices have recently spiked lower and are now down 1.7% at $66.20 a barrel. The commodity has been selling off for weeks now and is down more than $10 a barrel over the last month alone as everything from sufficient supplies (now that the summer driving season is over) to cooling tensions with Iran, Chevron’s recent deep-water discovery in the Gulf and BP saying yesterday it plans to get the Prudhoe Bay pipeline back at full capacity by the end of October, diminish the desire to own crude oil futures and subsequently make equities more attractive to own. DJ30 +54.51 NASDAQ +8.66 SP500 +3.74 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1307/1506/862 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1322/1810/746 mln

1:00 pm : More of the same for stocks as the indices remain mired in very narrow trading ranges. The Dow is turning in the best performance among the majors, but its modest 0.33% advance provides little for investors to get overly excited about since the blue chip index is still on pace to close down about 0.8% for the week. Faring even worse are the Nasdaq and Russell 2000, whose modest gains are barely making a dent in the respective 1.5% and 1.9% declines they've endured since kicking off a holiday-shortened week on Tuesday. DJ30 +37.54 NASDAQ +5.63 SP500 +2.23 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1353/1420/766 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1407/1694/664 mln

12:30 pm : No real change in sentiment as investors kick off the afternoon session with the same modestly positive bias that helped get buying efforts back on track this morning after two days of profit taking. Tech continues to be the most attractive area whetting the appetites of bargain hunters while investors are also finding attractive valuations in beaten-down areas like Tires & Rubber, Internet Retail and Human Resources, which are among this year's worst performing S&P industry groups. DJ30 +33.46 NASDAQ +3.25 SP500 +1.40 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1322/1435/706 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1356/1718/612 mln

12:00 pm : Market is holding onto modest gains midday as investors believe that a two day sell-off, which erased at least half of the August gains for the major averages, was overdone. Another pullback in oil prices to five-month lows and borrowing costs on the decline across the yield curve, after Cleveland Fed President and voting member of the Fed's rate-setting Open Market Committee Pianalto said that lowered inflation expectations are helping to keep yields low, are providing additional support behind the market's bounce.

Not surprisingly, the sector turning in today's best performance and providing the bulk of market leadership is Technology, which has been among the worst performing areas this week as investors locked in some of the sector's impressive 8.4% August surge. Renewed interest in beaten down software names, as evidenced by the GSTI Software Index turning positive for the year, has helped offset National Semiconductor (NSM 24.00 -0.39) saying Q2 sales will miss forecasts and Broadcom (BRCM 25.72 -0.71) finding more stock option irregularities.

Health Care, which is getting a lift from strength in HMOs and biotech, is also lending some notable leadership while Amazon.com (AMZN 30.23 +0.50) rolling out a new digital video download service, an analyst upgrade in the hotel space and retailers benefiting from oil's decline help the Consumer Discretionary look past another profit warning out of the housing space. Lennar Corp (LEN 42.30 -0.95) has become the latest homebuilder to cut earnings guidance on account of increased sales incentives and certain land adjustments. DJ30 +38.42 NASDAQ +5.52 SP500 +2.95 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1302/1417/620 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1347/1702/538 mln

11:30 am : Indices regain some momentum since the last update, but hardly enough to make a significant change in the standings. Financials inching into the green and further appreciation in the Tech sector, which is now turning in a respectable 0.7% gain following a turnaround in the semiconductor space, have been the most noticeable reasons behind the recent uptick. DJ30 +36.10 NASDAQ +6.28 SP500 +2.76 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1208/1455/536 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1293/1698/454 mln

11:00 am : Little changed since the last update as the indices continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges. In fact, the market's holding pattern has been further evidenced in the A/D line, as advancers and decliners on both the NYSE and Nasdaq remain evenly matched. Meanwhile, crude oil prices are slipping to session lows and are back below $67 a barrel, or 15% off their record high of $78.40 on July 14. Nonetheless, a subsequent reversal in the Energy sector has so far all but offset eased concerns about the inflationary characteristics of higher energy prices.DJ30 +29.22 NASDAQ +2.72 SP500 +1.91 XOI -0.6% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1312/1283/434 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1454/1477/372 mln

10:30 am : The bulk of industry leadership remains positive but the absence of leadership in the influential Financials sector has the major averages struggling to retain their positive footing. Even though borrowing costs are falling across the yield curve, an analyst downgrade on Wachovia (WB 53.47 -0.94) and more pressure on mortgage lenders following another profit warning out of the housing space, this time from Lennar Corp (LEN 42.40 -0.85), are diminishing the sector's appeal.DJ30 +25.13 NASDAQ +0.95 SP500 +0.88 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1280/1190/318 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1385/1436/268 mln

[54anickel]

43. Rio Grande levees need massive repairs

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/business/4171864.html

BROWNSVILLE, Texas — Twelve-foot-high earthen berms stretching 100 miles along the Rio Grande in South Texas were built decades ago to protect the region's irrigated farms and citrus groves from floods. But now a four-county region known as the Valley, with a growing population of 1.3 million, risks flooding again because of levee erosion.

Age, drought and poor maintenance are part of the problem, but locals blame the U.S. Border Patrol for the worst damage. Agents drive along the tops of levees, often dragging tires behind to wipe out footprints of illegal immigrants so fresh ones will be more noticeable.

"The levees were not designed to have that sort of traffic flow on them," Cameron County Judge Gilberto Hinojosa said. The agents are "just doing their job, but it has had an effect on a system that was designed to protect us."

snip>

Pete Leal, 61, fears the levee won't withstand another major storm if repairs aren't made soon. In 1967, Hurricane Beulah dumped three feet of rain on the Valley. Flood water surged about 200 yards past the riverbank and lapped the top of the then-sturdy berm.

"If anything like that happened now, I'd say it would wipe out Brownsville," Leal said.

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[54anickel]

45. Bond Market Has It Right (Willie)

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Willie/sep082006.html

References and claims have been made lately that the US Treasury market has it wrong, that the long-term yields should be much higher in accordance to the troublesome stubborn rising price inflation. Let me go on record to stand in measured disagreement but in spiritual support. Numerous are my reasons to take exception to notable respectable analysts such as Peter Schiff. He points to rising prices, inflation expectations, economic growth, the USDollar in “The Bond Market Has It Wrong” last month. These are some of the most important concepts at work, especially growth taking precedence over inflation. Evidence is exhibited of price inflation, sluggish growth, and a teetering currency. But so what? Particulars of the upcoming stagflation are the immediate traits of the story which goes much deeper. The foundation for the government bond market is much more complicated than mere “sentiment” such as inflation expectations, just as the stock market goes beyond consumer sentiment. A wider sweep of factors and their statistics, thus obtaining a more triangularized perspective, is mandatory in order to gain a comprehensive view on the bonds and especially why the 10-year TNote yield cannot surge past 5.0% toward 6.0% in the last many moons. My more complete analysis is saved for Hat Trick Letter paid members, for which theses public articles serve as promotion. A sketch is provided here which frames my viewpoint. Pardon my parade of imagery, sarcasm, and mixed metaphors. My anger, disappointment, and sensed betrayal knows no bounds and cannot be concealed, when considering the pathogenesis directed by our nation of compromised clownish economists.

THE ECONOMIC GROWTH LIE

All analysis must begin with the truth in economic growth, after bullscheiss is removed. It remains astonishing to me that experts in the gold community continue to pay homage to the lies promoted by the USGovt on Gross Domestic Product growth. With no reluctance on my part to be repetitive, or even obnoxious, since it is so critical, the GDP is exaggerated by at least 4%. Its cousin lie is the Consumer Price Index, which is suppressed by at least 4%. Keyword is “lie” here. They are profound countervailing lies. The long-term yield must properly reflect the recession in progress. The Treasury Yield Curve has done so for almost a full year, stuck in inversion mode. The Q2 GDP was formally cited as +2.9% which after passing through the “BS Meter” comes out as a decline of at least 1%, namely recession. One must factor in big differences between the current conditions and those of 1995. The issue is not so much looking at growth stall over price inflation, which is akin to arguing over which sister is uglier, but to ignore their diet, hygiene, lifestyle, fashion, manner, not to mention parental supervision and guidance. Both sisters are a horror show, poster children worthy of milk cartons. Under the surface lies better hints and indications.

PARADIGM SHIFT

In the past it was simpler, since the USEconomy was more a closed system. No more. My contention is that the entire field of Economics has been turned on its ear. Our nation contained lousy economists when the field was easier to diagnose. Now that globalization has arrived, the field has become more complex. The errors are more grandiose. The policy is more fraught with risk. Reading “tea leaves” is more treacherous. Pathways are more treacherous. With each periodic transition, accumulated debt has grown. The new factor on the scene is the monster of Asian competition. Let me be more clear. The USEconomy is at risk of liquidation at the hands of Asia. Monetization sounds like an easy answer to counter rising costs, but it is failing and will continue to fail. The labor cost differential between the United States and China is NOT RESOLVABLE without airtight trade protection. Arguing growth over inflation or vice versa seems like bickering at the dinner table, when the food supply is less than meager and the kitchen floor is sinking. Hey, the USEconomy depends in lunatic fashion upon the consumer. Its entire price structure is so skewed to the point of never to be put in order. The mix of prices is important in this horribly skewed system, not the aggregate level of prices. Economists have totally failed to sort of the components to the aggregate in the last decade, in policy determination, in trend analysis, and in commentary.

WHAT ABOUT OTHER PRICES ?

Why does everyone believe the CPI plus PPI rule the day and govern long-term Treasury yields? Sure, the Employment Cost Index (ECI) is also watched, as is average hourly earnings. Fine. Conventional wisdom points to rising ECI as indicating more tightening ahead by the US Federal Reserve. That makes no sense either. Long-term rates must reflect erosion to capital in a systemic sense, the tangible economy system, as it pertains to current and future. Wages still have not caught up, as US workers are locked in a multi-year severe recession, the likes of which we might not have ever witnessed before. Wage growth is much more essential for household survival nowadays. The debt burden acts so much dead weight ballast on the household ships at sea. It raises the pressures on households. Prices have risen in the wrong places, named COSTS, and prices cannot seem to rise in the right places where people live and work. That is the key problem. The greater threat is of continued corporate liquidation outside the financial sector, AT THE SAME TIME as price inflation lurks and bites. And now the housing market decline has launched, surely without a champagne bottle christened by a irrelevant luminary or clueless starlet or clownish politician. The housing stall and reversal is a tidal change, whose shift has taken the long-term TNote yield down 50 basis points since June. Housing which falters has the power to pull the plug on prices, even as the USDollar which weakens has the power to lift costs even more. Currency matters are fully analyzed in the September Hat Trick Letter report, in detail each month. Without question, the Bank of Japan and Euro Central Bank are bending over backwards to lend a hand to the frustrated US Federal Reserve.

CHINA SPOILS USFED REFLATION

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[54anickel]

48. 3:06 - the final hour (sort of low on the volumes again)

Dow 11,382.27 +50.83 (+0.45%)
Nasdaq 2,163.02 +7.73 (+0.36%)
S&P 500 1,297.86 +3.84 (+0.30%)
10-yr Bond 4.765 -0.03 (-0.63%)
30-yr Bond 4.914 -0.025 (-0.51%)
NYSE Volume 1,610,307,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,162,364,000

2:30 pm : Market is off its best levels of the day but is still sitting near afternoon highs. Investors continue to embrace the sell-off in oil prices to five-month lows, but the ensuing removal of leadership in the S&P 500's biggest profit engine that is Energy (-1.4%) has capped the indices' gains. Among the sectors helping to offset the lack of participation from Energy, which was last month's only sector to post a loss, have been Technology (+1.0%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.9%) and Health Care (+0.7%).DJ30 +55.89 NASDAQ +9.29 SP500 +4.53 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1277/1598/1.05 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1174/1981/906 mln

2:00 pm : Major averages extend their reach to the upside as market breadth continues to favor the bulls. However, even though advancers outpace decliners on both the NYSE and Nasdaq by their biggest margin of the session, it is still too early to declare victory as another below average volume trading day going into the weekend offers little conviction behind today's recovery efforts and leaves the door open for some late-day volatility. DJ30 +65.72 NASDAQ +11.68 SP500 +5.30 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1315/1546/942 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1229/1918/816 mln

[AnneD]

49. Missed you Ghost dog....

have a good weekend.

[54anickel]

51. Closing time

Dow 11,392.11 +60.67 (+0.54%)
Nasdaq 2,165.79 +10.50 (+0.49%)
S&P 500 1,298.92 +4.90 (+0.38%)
10-yr Bond 4.771 -0.024 (-0.50%)
30-yr Bond 4.916 -0.023 (-0.47%)
NYSE Volume 2,050,347,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,458,545,000

4:20 pm : After two consecutive days of consolidation wiped out much of the August rally, stocks bounced back Friday as low valuations that were attractive last week looked even better at current levels in the wake of widespread profit-taking. To wit, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 1.7%, 2.1% and 4.4%, respectively, last month but heading into today's open had already relinquished 1.2%, 1.5%, and 2.3% since Tuesday.

With policy makers keeping a watchful eye on inflation risks like higher energy prices, a sharp decline in oil coupled with a Fed official saying that lowered inflation expectations are helping to keep yields low, helped renew interest in equities. Crude oil futures fell 1.5% to a fresh five-month low of $66.31 a barrel as everything from sufficient supplies (especially now that the summer driving season is over) to cooling tensions with Iran continue to remove the risk premiums that lifted oil to a record high of $78.40 a barrel on July 14.

In the absence of any notable economic data, Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto saying the full impact of past rate hikes has yet to take hold and that last month's pause was "appropriate" provided an additional source of support for investors to get buying efforts back on track, as they recognized she is also a voting member of the FOMC. Of the nine sectors trading higher, it wasn't all that surprising to see Technology take the lead and provide the bulk of leadership throughout the session since it has been hit the hardest this week as participants questioned the sustainability of the sector's impressive 8.4% August surge.

Credit Suisse initiating coverage of Autodesk (ADSK 33.48 +2.00) with an Outperform rating helped the Application Software group turn in one of the day's best performances while investors jumping back into bellwethers like Intel (INTC 19.45 +0.23) and IBM (IBM 80.66 +1.26) lent even more sector support. Renewed interest in beaten down software names, as evidenced by the GSTI Software Index turning positive for the year, also helped investors look past National Semiconductor (NSM 24.45 +0.06) saying Q2 sales will miss forecasts and Broadcom (BRCM 26.09 -0.34) discovering more stock option irregularities.

Consumer Discretionary was another influential leader turning in a gain of more than 1.0%. McDonald's (MCD 37.50 +0.98) surging 2.7% to a new 52-week high, an analyst upgrade in the hotel space and Amazon.com (AMZN 30.51 +0.78) rolling out a new digital video download service helped overshadow another profit warning out of the housing space. Lennar Corp (LEN 42.71 -0.54) was the latest homebuilder to cut earnings guidance on account of increased sales incentives and certain land adjustments. The performance of General Merchandise retailers like Target (TGT 50.56 +1.88), benefiting in part from oil's decline, also helped quiet concerns about the economy slipping into a recession, which is unlikely given the balanced approach of the Bernanke-led Fed in conducting monetary policy. DJ30 +60.67 NASDAQ +10.50 SP500 +4.90 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1342/1612/1.48 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1265/1970/1.31 bln

3:30 pm : Indices are showing no signs of slowing going into the close as the major averages are at session highs and nine out of 10 sectors continue to trade in positive territory. Separately, July consumer credit recently checked in at $5.5 bln following an upwardly revised figure of $14.1 bln for June. However, since the data are subject to massive revisions and because they are released well after every other consumer spending indicator, the market, per usual, has ignored the report.DJ30 +69.40 NASDAQ +12.45 SP500 +5.93 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1348/1569/1.24 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1313/1883/1.08 bln

3:00 pm : Buyers remain in control of the action with only an hour left to go before the weekend officially begins. With the NYMEX now closed, and oil prices ending the day down 1.6% at $66.31 a barrel and off 4.2% for the week, investors are breathing a sigh of relief heading into the weekend. However, volumes are tapering off dramatically, suggesting that most trading desks have now emptied.DJ30 +56.27 NASDAQ +9.65 SP500 +4.60 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1317/1575/1.13 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1270/1916/988 mln


Have a great week end :hi: