Post-9/11 Drop in Air Travel Delayed Flu Season, Study Finds --WaPo

[Demeter]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/11/AR2006091101017.html?referrer=email


By Rick Weiss
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, September 12, 2006; A05



The decline in U.S. air travel that followed the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks delayed the onset of that year's annual flu outbreak and slowed its spread around the country, according to a new analysis that could help health officials decide whether to impose flight restrictions in the event of a global flu pandemic. The delay was modest -- flu deaths peaked about two weeks later than usual that winter -- and by the time the season was over, the same number of people had died from the disease as in a typical year. But pandemic flu is expected to be much more deadly than conventional flu, so having a few weeks of extra time to deliver protective drugs or vaccines could make a big difference in total mortality, said the scientists who conducted the study.

While the national peak for flu deaths is almost always within two days of Feb. 17, the 2001-02 peak was not until March 2. And the amount of time it took the flu to spread around the country -- based on reporting from nine national regions -- was 68 percent longer than usual, or 16 days instead of the 8 to 11 days in the previous two years.

The study concludes that the number of international travelers flying into the United States during the month of September is a key determinant of when the U.S. flu season will peak. And it finds that domestic air travel during November -- perhaps especially during Thanksgiving week -- is a key determinant of how quickly flu will spread around the country.

The researchers emphasized that while some people get sick from sitting near contagious passengers, the main benefit of curtailing travel comes from stemming the dispersal of sick people to unaffected communities, where they can launch new networks of infection. But the researchers also conceded that many factors work against the idea. "There are significant economic, social, legal and constitutional consequences," Brownstein said. "It's up to government to consider and balance these different factors."

Michael T. Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, said the debate over competing flight-restriction policies is likely to prove irrelevant. "If an influenza pandemic strikes, flight cancellations will not be a function of government -- they will be a function of people choosing not to travel, and of pilots and flight attendants not being there to work," Osterholm said. "We're not spending nearly enough on figuring out how to deal with realistic problems like that."

[marmar]

1. "help health officials decide whether to impose flight restrictions"

Is this a preview of our next big scare? :scared: :scared: :scared:

Is it just me or this country sounding more and more like the fictional Britain in V for Vendetta every minute?