NBC/WSJ Poll: Dems seem likely to pick up midterm seats (* 42%)

[RamboLiberal]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14819659/

Less than two months until Election Day, the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds that more than half of registered voters disapprove of President Bush's job performance, even more disagree with his handling of Iraq and a strong plurality prefer a Congress controlled by the Democrats — all suggesting that Democrats are still poised to pick up seats in the upcoming midterms.

But the poll, which comes out more than a week after administration officials have made a series of speeches on terrorism and after gasoline prices have declined, also shows that Bush and the Republican Party have established a slightly stronger footing than they've held in months. Bush's job approval among registered voters is up two points — giving him his highest rating in the poll since November — and his handling of Iraq is up three, although both gains are within the margin of error.

Slight Bush uptick
"This is still a very difficult national environment" for Republicans, says GOP pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted this survey with Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart. But he adds that this slight uptick is much better for them than no change at all.

According to the survey, 42 percent of registered voters approve of Bush's job — up from the 40 percent who said that in July's NBC/Journal poll. In addition, only 38 percent approve of his handling of Iraq, but that's an increase of three percentage points since that last poll.

Also in the poll, Democrats hold a nine-point advantage over Republicans (48 percent to 39 percent) in voters' preference of which party they want to control Congress. That finding is essentially unchanged from July, when Democrats held a 10-point edge over Republicans (48 percent to 38 percent).

Conducted Sept 8-11 1,009 Registered Voters. I think all the 9-11 spin had an effect! 61% disapprove of Bush comparing Iraq to WWII fight against Nazis. That's good!

[pinto]

1. Good to hear. We need to remind people that a strong Dem Congress will

provide (among other things) competent and effective oversight to this Administration's (mis)handling of foreign policy, lacking with the current Republican Congress. Balance of power is a cornerstone of our form of government.

[rodeodance]

2. no matter which poll it is--Bush has made gradual gains over the year.

[DemPopulist]

4. Huh?

He's exactly where he was a year ago.

[pnwmom]

6. When a gain is within the margins of error, it's not a gain.

The Wall Street Journal is deliberately confusing the issue by first reporting that the Republicans had a two point gain, then noting that it was within the margin of error. Any result WITHIN the margin of error is JUST AS LIKELY TO BE ACCURATE as any other result. So, if the margin of error is 3%, then a 47% and a 50% put you within the SAME margin of error. You can't say one result is higher than another.

If you polled three SAMPLES of registered voters on one day, one sample could result in a 48%, one could be a 49% and one could be a 46% and they would all be equally valid results -- and there would be no way of knowing what the actual result would be if you had surveyed the ENTIRE population of registered voters, instead of just a sample. All you would know is that there is a high probability (usually 95/100) that the true result -- reflecting the whole population of registered voters -- would be SOMEWHERE within the stated margin of error.

You will see this error again and again (claiming that one candidate is ahead of the other, even though the results are within the margin of error) in the reporting of surveys. It's such basic concept in polling -- and it is stated so clearly in any reputable pollsters' boilerplate -- that I can't believe reporters at major outlets don't understand it. I think they deliberate misreport, for their own purposes.

[RamboLiberal]

7. I'd be real suspect of the 9/10 and 9/11 polling when Bush was all

over the news and f*cking TV all day.

Don't you know that it's only when he drops 2 points that it's within the margin of error! :sarcasm:

[pnwmom]

8. But you're right -- they only mention that when it helps them.

[CatholicEdHead]

3. I recieved a WSJ News Alert a few minutes ago

It was written that the rise was the best thing on earth, like some corner was apparently turned. The blinders are still on over there.

[truthisfreedom]

5. i wonder how the $60,000,000 worth of attack ads is going to affect things

i hope it drives all of the Democrats to the polls.

we need our leadership to be hammering home this very important point:

the republicans use EXACTLY the same tactics as the terrorists to control the Americans... fear. that's all they are good for... fear.