STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 14 September

[ozymandius]

Thursday September 14, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 860 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2087 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1793 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1754
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 13, 2006

Dow... 11,543.32 +45.23 (+0.39%)
Nasdaq... 2,227.67 +11.85 (+0.53%)
S&P 500... 1,318.07 +4.96 (+0.38%)
Gold future... 596.30 +2.00 (+0.34%)
30-Year Bond 4.90% -0.01 (-0.12%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.77% -0.01 (-0.17%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

Wall Street Spin Creates Opportunity

With very little economic news to digest today, the broad stock indexes are flip-flopping around breakeven as they look for direction following yesterday’s gains. At this point, if stock prices can simply hold the recent gains, the bulls can begin to claim victory as we move into the fourth quarter to close the year. Wall Street has been pounding home the mantra that the forthcoming economic slowdown will result in less demand for commodities, and that is why we are seeing lower prices for precious metals and commodities, especially oil. With the economic slowdown, where is the corresponding decline in stock prices? If the global economy is truly slowing, we should also see corporate earnings come under pressure, and possibly a contraction of price to earnings multiples…but it’s not happening.

At the lunch hour we have stocks slightly in positive territory and bond prices are modestly higher, pushing the yield on ten-year Treasuries down to 4.75%. The U.S. dollar opened higher against most major currencies, but has been sliding lower as the day progresses, and energy prices are mixed following the inventory data from the Energy Department.

Weekly Economic Data

First, a quick look at the weekly Wednesday reports, then back to the current spin on Wall Street. Energy analysts expected a drawdown of 1.9 million barrels of crude oil, but the number came in larger than expected at minus 2.9 million barrels. Gasoline inventories were expected to grow by 1.0 million barrels, but instead only grew by 100,000 barrels. The lower than expected inventories has crude $.49 higher at $64.25 and wholesale unleaded gasoline is higher by two cents at $1.57 a gallon. Distillate inventories were expected to move higher by 2.0 million barrels, but instead grew by a much larger 4.7 million barrels. Heating oil is down a penny at $1.75 a gallon and natural gas just turned positive by a penny to $5.59/mbtu’s. Overall I would have expected better gains based on the draw-downs in crude and gasoline with shorts coming in to cover, but downward pressure remains in the energy complex.

The second weekly report came from the Mortgage Bankers Association saying their applications index rose by 3.2% from the prior week with the purchase index higher by 5.3% and the re-fi index higher by 0.1%. The 30-year fixed rate rose one basis point higher to 6.32% and the average one-year ARM rose five basis points to 5.96%. According to MarketWatch, “With spreads tightening between adjustable rates and fixed rates, adjustable-rate loans accounted for just 25.5% of loans, the lowest ARM share in nearly three years.” The Fed has removed the “froth” from the housing market, but many analysts are asking the question, “Have they gone too far?”

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports-a-plenty

8:30 AM Business Inventories Jul
Briefing Forecast 0.5%
Market Expects 0.5%
Prior 0.8%

8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Aug
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior 0.2%

8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Aug
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior -0.1%

8:30 AM Initial Claims 09/09
Briefing Forecast 315K
Market Expects 315K
Prior 310K

8:30 AM Retail Sales Aug
Briefing Forecast -0.2%
Market Expects -0.2%
Prior 1.4%

8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Aug
Briefing Forecast 0.4%
Market Expects 0.3%
Prior 1.0%

10:00 AM Business Inventories Jul
Briefing Forecast 0.5%
Market Expects 0.5%
Prior 0.8%

[UpInArms]

18. 8:30 reports tumbling in:

8:30 AM ET 9/14/06 U.S. AUG. RETAIL SALES EX-GAS, EX-AUTOS UP 0.4%

8:30 AM ET 9/14/06 U.S. JULY RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS REVISED TO 0.6% VS. 1.0%

8:30 AM ET 9/14/06 U.S. JULY RETAIL SALES UNREVISED AT 1.4% GAIN

8:30 AM ET 9/14/06 U.S. AUG. RETAIL GENERAL MERCHANDISE SALES UP 0.4%

8:30 AM ET 9/14/06 U.S. AUG. RETAIL GAS STATION SALES FALL 1%

8:30 AM ET 9/14/06 U.S. AUG. RETAIL AUTO SALES RISE 0.4%

8:30 AM ET 9/14/06 U.S. AUG. RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS UP 0.2% VS. 0.3% EXPECTED

8:30 AM ET 9/14/06 U.S. AUG. RETAIL SALES RISE 0.2% VS. -0.2% EXPECTED

8:30 AM ET 9/14/06 U.S. AUG. NON-PETROLEUM IMPORT PRICES RISE 0.5%

8:30 AM ET 9/14/06 U.S. AUG. IMPORT PRICES RISE 0.8% VS. UNCHANGED EXPECTED

8:30 AM ET 9/14/06 U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS AT LOWEST LEVEL SINCE JULY 22

8:30 AM ET 9/14/06 U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 5,000 TO 308,000

[UpInArms]

20. U.S. retail sales rise 0.2% in August

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BE648047B%2D0C88%2D4FB1%2DA77F%2DA648859B21AC%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. retail sales inched ahead by 0.2% in August, boosted by a surprising gain in auto sales that offset the drag from lower gasoline prices, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Economists had expected retail sales to fall 0.2% after rising 1.4% in July. Auto sales increased 0.4% in August, despite reports from automakers earlier that showed declining sales. Sales excluding autos rose 0.2% in August, a bit less than the 0.3% expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Sales at gasoline stations dropped 1% in August as gasoline prices tumbled. Sales excluding both autos and gasoline increased 0.4% in August, a steady but unspectacular increase.

[UpInArms]

21. U.S. weekly jobless claims down to lowest level since July

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B57809AB8%2DA627%2D4276%2DA7C0%2DB6E200C593EB%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The number of new filings for state unemployment benefits fell by 5,000 to 308,000 in the week ended Sept. 9, the Labor Department said Thursday. This is the lowest level since the week ended July 22. Economists were expecting initial claims of about 314,000, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. Claims fell a revised 5,000 to 313,000 in the previous week, compared with the initial estimate of a drop of 9,000 to 310,000. The four-week average of initial claims - which smoothes out weekly noise and distortions in the data - fell 1,500 to 314,250. This is the lowest level since the week ended Aug. 12. The number of people collecting state unemployment benefits over the past four weeks rose by 18,000 to 2.50 million in the week ended Sept. 2.

[AnneD]

31. Gee, since unemployment is falling...

I guess I shouldn't bother posting this.

Grads boomerang back home — lessons continue

WASHINGTON — Victoria Grossmann graduated from the University of Florida in 2003 with a degree in business, a minor in statistics, big plans — and about $5,000 in credit card debt.

That debt was enough to send her back home to live with her parents for three years, during which she learned the tough financial lessons confronting many young people saddled with consumer debt and increasingly hefty student loans.

<snip>

``Today's recent grads are dealing with more money issues ... really than any generation before them,'' said Todd Romer, executive director of Young Money magazine. ``If they were not able to save and be frugal during college, they'll still need to attempt to be frugal in those first few years after college.''

For recent graduates, trying to live within a budget is complicated by low starting salaries, minimal savings and often high educational and other debts. Student Monitor, a New Jersey research firm that specializes in the college market, puts a graduate's average student loan debt at $25,760, which will take an estimated 7.9 years to pay off.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/biz/4174394.html


Well at least they can work for less since they live at home. Welcome to Bush's America...Bringing Generations Togather:eyes:

[UpInArms]

22. U.S. Aug. import prices rise 0.8%, ex-petroleum up 0.5%

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B945799CB%2D3F5A%2D436E%2D82DC%2D6E6302A13C2D%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. import prices rose 0.8% in August, the Labor Department said Friday. The rise was unexpected. Economists were expecting import prices to remain steady. Imported petroleum prices rose 2.3% in August. Petroleum prices have risen 25.9% over the past five months. Prices of imports excluding petroleum rose 0.5%. The gain was helped by the biggest increase in imported food prices since March 2005. Over the past 12 months, import prices are up 6.6%. Meanwhile, prices of U.S. exports rose 0.4% in August.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil moves back above $64

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil rebounded above $64 a barrel on Thursday as bargain-hunting buyers stepped in after a month-long rout and a renewed U.S. push for immediate sanctions against Iran revived some concerns over supplies.

U.S. light crude for October delivery was up 64 cents at $64.61 a barrel by 0845 GMT after rising 21 cents on Wednesday, snapping a 12 percent, seven-session slide, its longest losing streak in three years.

London Brent crude was 63 cents higher at $63.62 a barrel, having dropped to a low of $62.62 on Wednesday -- a more than $16 fall from its August 8 record-high, the steepest retreat since the first Gulf War in 1990/1991.

Oil traders are reeling from the rout triggered by growing stocks at the end of the summer season, easing jitters over Iran and a thus-far mild storm season.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060914/bs_nm/markets_oil_dc_27

[ozymandius]

4. Oil price likely to remain volatile: IMF economist

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Global oil prices are likely to continue volatile as supplies remain tight, the International Monetary Fund's chief economist said on Thursday.

Raghuram Rajan said a mild hurricane season in the Atlantic had removed some pressure from the oil price. U.S. benchmark crude is now trading at around $64.50 a barrel, well below the record high of $78.40 a barrel hit on July 14.

"Going forward, what is not clear is if all the geopolitical events that have calmed down markets will continue," he told CNBC Television before the start of IMF-
World Bank meetings in Singapore this week and next.

"Perhaps the situation reverts in the Middle East, perhaps Nigeria starts having some problems ... I think the oil market is tight enough that we are going to continue to see increased volatility," he said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060914/bs_nm/imf_oil_dc_1

[ozymandius]

8. Saudi official: 82% of crude is untapped

VIENNA -- The world has tapped only 18 percent of the total global supply of crude, a leading Saudi oil executive said yesterday, challenging the notion that supplies are petering out.

Abdallah S. Jum'ah, president and chief executive of the state-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co., known better as Aramco, said the world has the potential of 4.5 trillion barrels in reserves -- enough to power the globe at current levels of consumption for another 140 years.

Jum'ah challenged oil ministers and petroleum executives at an OPEC conference in Vienna to step up exploration ``and leave the minimum amount of oil in the ground."

``The world has only consumed about 18 percent of its conventional potential," Jum'ah said, contending that should lay to rest fears that the world is in danger of being tapped out within a few decades.

more

:eyes:

[ozymandius]

5. China halts foreign investment in brokers

China's stock market regulator announced on Thursday that it had placed a temporary ban on investment by foreign brokerages in the domestic securities industry.

Although it has been widely known that such a ban has been in place since the end of last year, the statement published Thursday on the website of the China Securities Regulatory Commission was the first formal acknowledgement by the regulator.

The statement comes a week before Hank Paulson makes his first visit to China as the new US Treasury Secretary, where the former Goldman Sachs executive is expected to push Beijing to allow more foreign investment in the financial sector.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20060914/bs_ft/fto091420060427467183

[ozymandius]

6. Paulson calls for rethink on US-China relations

Hank Paulson, the US Treasury Secretary, on Wednesday called for a far-reaching reassessment of US-China policy, urging both nations to rise above short term disputes to take a "generational" view of their relationship.

In a landmark speech ahead of his first trip to China as Treasury Secretary, the former Goldman Sachs chairman and China expert said he would tell his counterparts in Beijing "we want you to succeed."

Mr Paulson declared "the United States has a huge stake in a prosperous stable China - a China able and willing to play its part as a global economic leader."

The US and China share huge areas of mutual economic interest, and highlighted energy and the environment as two specific issues where the two countries should work together.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20060913/bs_ft/fto091320061715087133

[ozymandius]

7. China risks backlash, Treasury chief warns

WASHINGTON -- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson spoke some straight talk to China on Wednesday: Make sweeping economic reforms or face a backlash from the rest of the world.

It sounded good, but the question is whether China will take heed. In the past, Beijing has brushed off such Washington exhortations, making modest concessions. But this time, Paulson made it clear he wanted more than economic tokenism from this new economic giant.

The former Wall Street executive, who took over as the chief financial officer of the United States in July, called on China to raise the value of its extremely cheap currency, the yuan, and overhaul its basic economic model so that it is not so export-driven.

He said the time has come for China to start reforming its domestic economy by opening up its financial sector, modernizing a rural agricultural economy and providing pensions and other benefits for workers. It also must clean up its environment, he said.

more

[specimenfred1984]

28. Paulson Got $500 Million Tax-Free as Gov't Employee

He got to keep his entire Goldman portfolio earnings tax-free because he accepted a government job.

I don't believe a word he says.

[ozymandius]

9. How Daley's Minimum Wage Victory Could Mean Defeat

The writer buries their lede.

Over his 17 years in office, Mayor Richard M. Daley has lorded over the Chicago City Council with such power and certainty that it is big — really big — news when aldermen dare say no to an ordinance he is pushing; or, for that matter, yes to an ordinance he had lobbied against. In fact, of the roughly 5,000 votes between April 2003, when the current council took office, and the end of last year, there were only 29 divided votes.

So at a time when the mayor was already considered vulnerable because of federal corruption investigations at the doorstep of his office and potentially tough running mates in next February's election, it came as quite a slap to his standing when the council signed off in July on a bill to raise substantially the wages and benefits of workers at such big box retailers as Target, Wal-Mart and Home Depot. The vote — 35 to 14 — was such an aberration that Daley had to resort to a tool he had never been forced to use before: the veto. However well-meaning it may have been, Daley argued, the measure would disproportionately hurt the black worker by keeping capital out of poor neighborhoods and cut into the city's overall financial well-being by shutting out retailers that generate some of the highest revenues — and taxes — of any business.

-cut-

The measure's backers, including co-sponsor Freddrenna Lyle, have suggested the ordinance could end up on a referendum in the February elections, and co-sponsor Joe Moore has promised to breathe life into an even wider plan covering more businesses as early as the next council meeting in October. Groups such as the Chicago Coalition for the Homeless, which joined in a massive rally at City Hall Wednesday, have promised to take the fight to state and federal officials to increase wages across the board.

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1534721,00.html

[ozymandius]

10. Good morning!

:donut: :donut: :donut:
Have a great day watching those reports flow in. I wonder who will win today in the initial claims pool: overs or unders.

See you when it's over.

Ozy :hi:

[AnneD]

27. Morning Marketeers......

:donut: and lurkers.
It was just a passing comment last week. When describing the memorial service for Nellie Connelly, the broadcaster noted that all the living Texas governors were there to pay tribute except Ann Richards. My heart sank a bit and I hoped it was just a rough patch. Esophageal cancer can be disfiguring and even strong folk can retreat socially. But Ann wouldn't. This was the woman that said being pretty was good, but being smart was better. The only was she would miss paying respects to Nellie was if she was on death's door.

Texas has lost 2 iconic women in the space of 2 weeks. Nellie was your Highland Park aunt. She would have you over to tea and discuss your new college beau. Even if she thought he was a poor match , she wouldn't say much about it, hug you as you left and slip a $20 in your pocket. Ann was your Austin (or Houston) aunt. She would have you over and feed you. When you brought up the subject of your college beau, she would not mince words and tell you he was a bad choice. When he broke up with you...you'd have to talk with Aunt ann. She would never tell you I told you so. No, she'd poor you a stiff drink, tell you what a rat he was and have you laughing as tears were running down your cheeks. You'd tell your success to Aunt Nellie, but you'd share your failures with Aunt Ann.

I identified deeply with Ann. Not only did we share the same name, her birthday was Sept 1 and mine was Sept 2. We both shared a passion for politics and have the same sharp tongued wit and humour that comes from recognizing our human frailties and being able to laugh at ourselves. We had both figured out that the way to deal with the good ol boys was to get right in there with them and not be afraid to mix it up. Ann understood that you can be tough as nails and still be a woman. She was honest and shared her personal battles in the hopes that she could be seen as a positive role model for others. I saw her at a rally once but my regret is that I never got to personally shake her hand and thank her for making Texas a better place for everyone. She was much beloved by 'the great unwashes masses'. That is something her predecessor,George Bush, will never understand.

You can read more about this wonderful woman (and send condolences) at

http://www.khou.com/

We mourn her passing :cry:


Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.....

[UpInArms]

11. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 85.59 Change -0.27 (-0.31%)

Tomorrow's Economic Releases: SNB Rate Hike A Done Deal?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/calendar/key_events/Tomorrow_s_Economic_Releases__SNB_Rate_1158190887754.html

<snipping to the dollar>

US Advanced Retail Sales (AUG) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)

Consensus: -0.3%
Previous: 1.4%

Outlook: Retail sales in the US are expected to have slipped 0.3 percent in August following July’s jump of 1.4 percent. A weakening housing market is likely to have taken its toll on consumers whose confidence has diminished as their major source of wealth depreciates. Optimism levels dropped to a nine-month low in August according to the Conference Board survey. These low levels of confidence are not surprising given the fewest existing homes sold in two and a half years while inventories of unsold residences on the market hit a record high. In the years before, the housing market was the main component in the 5-year trend of strong growth in the world’s largest economy. However, the consumer still has reason to spend. Unemployment still holds near a five-year low. This combined with the drop in gasoline prices as the summer driving season ends and the Fed’s decision to stop hiking rates should keep retail sales from easing too much.

Previous: The US consumer proved to be more resilient than expected in July, as retail sales jumped 1.4 percent after falling 0.4 percent the month prior. The rise in consumption came just as the Fed decided to hold rates at 5.25 percent in anticipation that inflation pressures would moderate over time. While purchases of electronics and cars surged, retailers were weary that sales would not be sustainable as high gasoline prices would likely impact automobile retailing. Furthermore, weakness in the housing market is also slowing refinancing, a source of cash homeowners have relied on for several years to boost spending.

...more at link...

and here's a piece from Monday:

Dollar’s Sudden Rally

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strategy_pieces/trade_or_fade/Dollar_s_Sudden_Rally_1157950768519.html

This week was shaping up to be much like last with price action mind numbingly slow for the first four days of market activity. It appeared that we would end the week close to where we started as the standstill between bulls and bears remained unresolved. However, as we approached the G-7 meeting, dollar firmed considerably first breaking the 1.2800 figure and then 1.2700 early Friday morning. The one major piece of economic news during the week – the ISM Services report -was dollar supportive as it printed at 57.0 versus 55.1 expected. However, looking beyond the headlines the report revealed serious deterioration in the individual components and could hardly be the cause of the dollar bull run.

Rather, dollar’s sudden strength was most likely due to technical factors as the selling in EUR/JPY cross weighed on the EUR/USD. Once the key levels were breached stop orders triggered further downside moves. Additionally traders expected to see rebalancing language out of the upcoming G-7 meeting over the week-end that would call for further strengthening of Asian currencies versus their European counterparts and sold the EUR/USD ahead of the event. Finally, comments from new Treasury Henry Paulson that he was "very much in favor of a strong dollar” helped fuel the dollar move even more.

Next week, the Trade Balance numbers on Tuesday and Retail Sales on Thursday will likely be the key economic events to drive order flow. While the Trade situation is unlikely to improve given the stubbornly high oil prices, if Retail Sales show stronger results than the market expects, the greenback may push down to the 1.2600 figure as fears of a serious slowdown in US economy will recede.



...more...

[UpInArms]

12. Countrywide (mortage lender) says Aug loan volume falls 24 pct

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-09-14T121034Z_01_WEN5415_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-COUNTRYWIDE-FUNDING-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Countrywide Financial Corp.(CFC.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the largest U.S. mortgage lender, said on Thursday it funded $40 billion of mortgage loans in August, a decrease of 24 percent from the same month last year.

Rising interest rates have cut into consumer demand for refinancing mortgages and buying new homes.

Mortgage loans for consumers buying homes fell to $19 billion in August, from $25 billion in August 2005.

[RawMaterials]

13. GFMS Sees $700 Gold By Year-End

Gold investors unnerved by the recent downdraft may just want to sit tight.

That's because investment demand could boost bullion prices to over $700 an ounce by year-end, according to the Gold Survey 2006 -- Update 1, published Thursday morning by London-based specialty consulting firm GFMS.

If the authors' predictions prove correct, gold prices will rise about 17% above Wednesday's close of $596.50 an ounce for December-dated futures. It would also place the yellow metal back into territory not seen since last spring, when the spot price hit a 26-year high of $725.25 on May 12.

Contributing factors, the GFMS report asserts, include a "bleak outlook" for the U.S. dollar due to a "problematic U.S. housing market," an "extremely volatile contributing to a general unease," as well as the "perceived threat of global terrorism," which should all contribute gold's allure as a safe haven.

GFMS does, however, caution that a general economic slowdown could hobble any embryonic rally if gold gets caught in a general commodities rout, and with liquidation of long positions and stop-loss selling accelerating sliding prices. The company sees a "full blown exit by investors" as very unlikely.

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/commodities/10308866.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

morning all hope everyone has a good day today :hi:

[UpInArms]

14. Top Russian central banker killed in contract 'hit' (cleaning up banking)

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-09-14T082448Z_01_L14533907_RTRIDST_0_RUSSIA-BANKER-UPDATE-6-PICTURE.XML

MOSCOW, Sept 14 (Reuters) - A top Russian central banker who fought to clean up Russia's murky banking system died early on Thursday from gunshot wounds after being ambushed by assassins in what police said was a contract 'hit'.

The killing of Andrei Kozlov, 41, a respected first deputy chairman of the Central Bank, was the highest-profile assassination in Moscow during the six years President Vladimir Putin has been in power.

Kozlov had led a fearless campaign to close banks suspected of involvement in money laundering. Gunmen fired on him as he left a football match between bank employees on Wednesday night.

<snip>

His murder plunged Russia's financial establishment into shock. With his department closing banks at the rate of two or three a week, Kozlov had no shortage of enemies and his colleagues said he had paid the ultimate price for his zeal.

"He was at the cutting edge of the battle against financial crime. He was a very brave and honest man and through his activity he repeatedly encroached on the interests of unprincipled financiers," Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said in a tribute.

<snip>

Kozlov's killing, with its grim echo of the often violent years of Boris Yeltsin's rule, was uncomfortable news for Putin who has consistently trumpeted the stability he has brought to Russia in the year Moscow heads the G8 group of economic powers.

...more...

[RawMaterials]

15. Commodities firm after IMF report

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil and gold prices bounced and copper steadied after nearly a week of losses on Thursday, lifted by an International Monetary Fund forecast that the global economy faces another year of strong growth.

The IMF warned that inflation and a slowdown in the United States posed dangers but there was a possibility for even faster growth in China and India, which bodes well for bullish trading in a range of commodities.

Gold was $593.00/594.30 an ounce at 1031 GMT versus $587.60/589.10 late in New York on Wednesday.

Bullion investors have been cautious since the price dropped below $600 earlier this week.

"We're in difficult times at the moment because investors are caught between a rock and a hard place," said Darren Heathcote of Investec Australia in Sydney.

"They are obviously afraid this is going to break down into that new band and therefore, we could see the end of the bull run," said Heathcote, who pegged support around $575 an ounce.

SGCIB analyst Stephen Briggs said: "Gold is an ambulance chaser -- gold likes bad news so its present weakness may be indicative of a more general disenchantment with commodities."

COPPER STEADY

Base metals markets were assessing the potential impact of comments by an International Monetary Fund official that rising metals prices should be a concern for government policy makers.

"In the medium term I think one has to be concerned about metals prices," IMF chief economist Raghuram Rajan told reporters in Singapore after his briefing on the IMF's semi-annual global economic outlook.

In its twice-yearly World Economic Outlook, the IMF raised its 2006 forecast for global growth to 5.1 percent from an April forecast of 4.9 percent. It also predicted 4.9 percent growth in 2007 versus a previous projection of 4.7 percent.

Stronger growth in Europe and emerging economies should help offset a slowdown in the U.S., the economic watchdog said.

snip..

Fears of the impact of a deteriorating economic growth outlook continued to stalk the market, with falling oil prices one of the main triggers for the most recent fund fallout.

"It's almost impossible to say what the next move will be. You could just flip a coin almost," the trader said.

Three-month LME copper jumped 3.1 percent to close at 70,720 yuan, up 2,110 yuan. Shanghai copper had climbed as high as 70,750 yuan earlier in the day.




http://za.today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2006-09-14T112915Z_01_BAN432896_RTRIDST_0_OZABS-MARKETS-COMMODITIES-20060914.XML

[UpInArms]

16. Treasuries prices edge up in wait for retail sales

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-09-14T121335Z_01_N14428071_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Long-dated U.S. Treasury debt prices edged up on Thursday as bond investors braced for an August retail sales reading that would indicate how consumers were responding to a cooling housing market.

After a two-month bond rally, investors face the risk of a selloff if consumer spending is stronger than expected, which could challenge the prevailing view that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold for now.

A heavy slate of some $20 billion of corporate bond issuance this week could temporarily weigh on Treasuries prices, analysts said.

However, the main scheduled event is the retail sales report, for release at 8:30 a.m. (1230 GMT).

"Strength will challenge two-year notes (performance) versus the (expectations for) the Fed, especially as lower gas prices kick in," wrote David Ader, head of government bond strategy with RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut in an e-mail note. "Weakness can't add much to the Fed story," he added.

...more...

[UpInArms]

23. Printing Press Hums: Fed adds temporary bank reserves via 14-day repos

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-09-14T122650Z_01_N14219582_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 14 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Thursday that it added temporary reserves to the banking system via 14-day repurchase agreements.

Further details of the operations are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[UpInArms]

17. Lawmakers to probe housing "bubble," mortgages (from Tuesday)

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlebusiness.aspx?type=ousiv&storyid=2006-09-12T191303Z_01_N12323829_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESSPRO-ECONOMY-HOUSING-SENATE-DC.XML&WTmodLoc=InvArt-R3-MostViewedBiz-1&from=business

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. lawmakers will question some leading government and industry economists about the perils of a possible 'housing bubble' in a Wednesday hearing.

Lawmakers wanted the session "because we've heard a great deal about the possibility of a housing bubble for several years now," said Sen. Wayne Allard, a Republican from Colorado.

The hearing, "The Housing Bubble and its Implications for the Economy," will be held in an open session of the Senate Banking Committee at 10 a.m..

Next week, the same committee will hold a hearing on the growth of innovative mortgage products that have mushroomed along with the housing sector.

Lawmakers behind Wednesday's hearing said that they were concerned that a steady flow of soft housing data could put the nation's economy in peril.

House prices increased by their smallest margin in over six years during the second quarter of 2006, a recent government study found. Sales of new and existing homes, too, are much slower than their recent break-neck pace.

...more...

[RawMaterials]

19. Is it the right time to invest in commodities?

Juerg Kiener of Swiss Asia Capital says that the crude rally is not over, and that crude prices are seen within USD 60-80/bbl over the next 18 months.
He says that precious metals have seen huge short positions, and that risk return looks best in the precious metals segment.


He adds that base metals are undergoing consolidation and that LME inventories are at all-time lows. He also says that they are positive on nickel.

Q: Do you agree with analysis that the super cycle for crude market might actually be near a close now?

A: I don’t think the super cycle is anywhere near to the close because the spare capacity in the market is just a little weak, we produce 85 million barrels a day and we are consuming 84. So there is very little spare capacity. Therefore, crude prices are driven by sentiment.

The capital replacement for crude is days above USD 50 and is rising. So the cushion underlying for further bull market in energy is still in place. But this is a cyclical downturn after 3-4 years of run where it made 600%. So giving up about a third of that value during this correction phase is quite normal

snipp..

Q: Copper and Nickel are seeing some fair amount of selling, have we seen tops on these commodities?

A: If one looks at the LME then the LME has an all time low inventory level, which tells you there is not much available physically. But a lot of pricing is done in the futures market, which is basically by hedge fund managers, traders and they look more at black box models. Now we have seen copper squeeze early in the year. At the turn of this year we would have said we are at the peak. We are well above the peak and so now we are consolidating. That was the first squeeze in the first quarter.

In the second quarter, Nickel’s supply is still tight and there is not much around so we would still be positive on Nickel for the time being. If one looks at last week, we had a squeeze in Zinc and Lead, which is developing similar to what we have seen in Nickel a couple of months ago, that looks very promising for the same reason that there is very little supply.

Further, in case of silver, we produce about 650 billion ounces a year and consume 900 million ounces and that is where probably the next squeeze will happen and so we are quite positive on the silver market itself.

snip..

Q: At the end of this calendar year where do you see these three commodities, copper, gold and crude?

A: I think crude will be somewhere in the sub 70s between USD 60-70, it obviously won’t turn around that quickly. Copper may be 5-10% lower than where it is today, probably next couple of months but might turn before the year-end. Gold and Silver will be substantially higher than they are today, it might test USD 550-570 levels on the downside, but the upside will be testing the old highs.

So you have got a very nice risk return. I don’t know if those highs will be made in the first quarter next year but in general October till March are very positive months for precious metals. So people should accumulate for the run. Instead of predicting December prices, I would rather look at the old highs being reached sometime in the first quarter next year.


http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/marketoutlook/juergkienercrudeprices/isitrighttimetoinvestcommodities/market/stocks/article/240000/1

[RawMaterials]

24. Polymer Group to raise prices on nonwovens

Polymer Group Inc. will increase the prices of its nonwoven roll goods in North America by 5 to 7 percent, depending on the specific products.

The Charlotte-based company cites sustained high costs of raw materials and energy.

The increases, effective Oct. 1, will apply primarily to products with petroleum-based raw materials, including polyester, polypropylene and polyethylene.

Outside of North America, the company will raise the prices of its polypropylene-based products. The amount of the increase will vary according to region.

"Costs of certain of our primary raw materials have increased in excess of 15 to 20 percent year-over-year," says James Schaeffer, PGI chief executive. "Additionally, electricity costs are 5 to 8 percent higher than the same time last year. We continue to focus on making our global manufacturing operations as efficient as possible. However, these price increases are necessary to ensure our customers continue to receive the best total value in the industry."



http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/charlotte/stories/2006/09/11/daily22.html

[RawMaterials]

25. World economy resilient but inflation threat looms: IMF

SINGAPORE (AFP) - The world economy is headed for its strongest expansion for three decades but simmering inflation, sky-high oil prices and rising interest rates pose growing dangers, the IMF said.

A dollar slump is also a risk if global economic imbalances, namely the huge US current account deficit and large Asian surpluses, fail to unwind smoothly, the
International Monetary Fund said Wednesday in its World Economic Outlook.

The US economy is expected to cool next year but recoveries in Japan and the eurozone will continue, while China shows no signs of slowing its recent breakneck pace, the IMF said in the twice-yearly report.

snip..

"The forecast housing slowdown is well and truly here with house price appreciation close to zero," Rajan said.

"Rising inventories of unsold houses suggest things will get worse before they get better, though rapidly slowing housing construction suggests that the supply side is also responding appropriately," he said.

snip..

"Even as the US economy is beginning to slow, the euro area has gained momentum, Japan's expansion continues, and emerging markets and developing countries are delivering very impressive growth rates," said Rajan.

The IMF renewed its call on China to allow a "more substantial" appreciation of the yuan to help ease global economic imbalances.

"Ultimately in the market economy that China is rapidly becoming, administrative methods to curb investment are only temporary fixes, akin to using band-aids to staunch a gaping wound," said Rajan.


http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060914/ts_afp/imfeconomygrowthforecastworld_060914100431

[54anickel]

26. 10:07 and in a selling mood

Dow 11,496.65 -46.67 (-0.40%)
Nasdaq 2,220.50 -7.17 (-0.32%)
S&P 500 1,313.78 -4.29 (-0.33%)
10-yr Bond 4.769 +0.004 (+0.08%)
30-yr Bond 4.898 -0.001 (-0.02%)
NYSE Volume 344,181,000
Nasdaq Volume 299,390,000

10:00 am : Indices extend their reach to the downside as the bulk of industry leadership remains negative. Consumer Discretionary (-0.8%) is pacing the way lower as Ford Motor (F 8.91 -0.28) now estimating it could lose up to $9 bln this year leaves Autos (-2.0%) as this morning's worst performing S&P industry group. Meanwhile, Bear Stearns (BSC 134.68 -1.54) became the latest investment bank to beat analysts' expectations; but since the stock has run up 5.6% in anticipation of a solid report, investors are consolidating recent gains which, combined with an analyst downgrade on Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB 38.32 -0.71) and rising bond yields, diminishes the appeal of owning Financials. The absence of leadership has also been noticeable in the Industrials sector as the Dow Jones Transportation Average surging 6.0% this week alone incites some profit taking while downgrades on GE (-0.8%) and BA (-1.9%) also take a toll.DJ30 -37.70 DJTA -0.7% NASDAQ -6.81 SP500 -2.85 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1665/738/178 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1797/879/86 mln

09:40 am : With the Dow just 170 points away from record highs and the Nasdaq already up 2.0% this month with two weeks to go, a sense that stocks have gotten ahead of themselves has prompted some early profit taking. Throw in analyst downgrades on Dow components General Electric (GE 34.60 -0.24) and Boeing (BA 75.22 -1.10), and bond traders feeling less certain of the Fed standing pat with its tightening efforts at next week's FOMC meeting following unexpected increases in August retail sales and monthly import prices, and stocks have struggled to retain this week's positive footing at the onset of trading.DJ30 -26.26 NASDAQ -5.65 SP500 -2.81 NASDAQ Vol 114 mln NYSE Vol 82 mln

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.2.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.5. Despite retail sales and jobless claims providing no indication of a significant economic slowdown, as well as Bear Stearns (BSC) becoming the third investment bank in as many days to top analysts' expectations, futures indications are still languishing below fair value, leaving stocks on course for a sluggish start. While the bearish disposition largely suggests the market will simply take a breather given the scope of recent gains, hesitation on the part of buyers can also be attributed to whether tomorrow's core-CPI data begin to reflect a downward trend in pricing pressures or show that July's tame inflation figures were merely an aberration.

08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.0. August retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.2% (consensus -0.2%) while sales, ex-autos, rose 0.2% (consensus 0.3%). Separately, initial claims fell 5,000 to 308,000 (consensus 315,000). So far, reaction in stocks has been somewhat muted, even though the sales data underscore that consumer spending remains solid; but a reversal in the Treasury market, as the 10-yr note is now down 2 ticks to yield 4.76%, questions what the Fed will do when it meets next week.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.5. After four consecutive days of market gains, it's not shocking to see sentiment a day later questioning the sustainability of those advances. Link such beliefs that stocks may be overbought on a short-term basis with analyst downgrades on two Dow components -- General Electric (GE) and Boeing (BA) -- as well as some apprehension ahead of economic data that include the influential Retail Sales report for August (8:30 ET), and the futures market is signaling a slightly lower open for stocks.

06:18 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.5.

06:16 am : FTSE...5927.80...+35.60...+0.6%. DAX...5923.22...+17.10...+0.2%.

06:16 am : Nikkei...15942.39...+192.34...+1.2%. Hang Seng...17183.45...-26.59...-0.2%.

[MsLeopard]

29. Kick to the front page n/t

[RawMaterials]

30. 3:19 Numbers and Blather

Dow 11521.06 -22.26 (-0.19%)
Nasdaq 2225.19 -2.48 (-0.11%)
S&P 500 1314.72 -3.35 (-0.25%)
10-Yr Bond 0.479% +0.03
NYSE Volume 1,905,288,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,517,714,000


3:00 pm : The market's recent recovery efforts didn't last very long as further weakness in bonds lifts yields across the curve to session highs and underpins a sense of nervousness heading into the final hour of trading for stocks. To wit, the 10-year note closing down 7 ticks, lifting the yield to 4.78%, has contributed to the rate-sensitive Financials sector slipping back into negative territory. The Treasury market is getting hit in low level action as position unwinding filters through with traders feeling less convinced that Friday's CPI report will further support a soft landing.DJ30 -19.15 NASDAQ -3.21 SP500 -2.98 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1773/1165/1.41 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1977/1209/1.05 bln

2:30 pm : Market continues to trade at improved levels, as the Financials climbs above the flat line for the first time today, fueled by strong follow-through momentum in the brokerage group (e.g. BSC +1.3%); the AMEX Securities Broker/Dealer Index is up 1.0% at four-month highs. Technology's 0.3% gain lifting the sector into positive territory for the year is also worth noting, as Application Software (e.g. MSFT +1.7%) remains one of today's best performers (+1.3%). Be that as it may, the absence of leadership from the profit engine that is Energy (-1.7%) is still preventing the Dow and Nasdaq from making a more aggressive push to the upside.DJ30 +3.92 NASDAQ +3.00 SP500 -0.67 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1701/1194/1.27 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1896/1270/926 mln

2:00 pm : With the bottom dropping out of oil prices, which are now down 1.3% at $63.15 a barrel in sympathy with a 10% drubbing in natural gas futures, the major averages are now touching their best levels of the day. The biggest improvement has been seen in Consumer Discretionary, which is now down only 0.2% as retailers embracing oil's eighth decline in nine days lift the S&P Retail Index into the green. However, Energy's subsequent 1.8% sell-off is offsetting improvements elsewhere and so far preventing the blue chip indices from inching into positive territory.DJ30 -4.81 NASDAQ +1.40 SP500 -1.73 XOI -2.0% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1699/1177/1.18 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1833/1319/846 mln

1:30 pm : Indices continue to vacillate in relatively tight trading ranges around the unchanged mark as market breadth still reflects a modestly bearish bias to today's trading. It's interesting to note that, aside from Diversified Chemicals (+1.5%) and Agricultural Products (+1.5%), which are two of today's top three performing S&P industry group following analyst upgrades on DuPont (DD 41.52 +1.02) and Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM 38.42 +0.56), respectively, most of today's limited buying efforts are focused primarily on picking up some of yesterday's biggest laggards performers. To wit, Photo Products (+2.1%), Tires & Rubber (+1.3%), and Drug Retail (+1.1%), three of Wednesday's worst performers, are also among today's top ten.DJ30 -13.21 NASDAQ -0.91 SP500 -2.27 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1721/1136/1.08 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1942/1192/762 mln

1:00 pm : The Nasdaq has inched back above the flat line since the last update, but that’s largely due to further appreciation in the tech-heavy index’s most influential component – Microsoft (MSFT 26.39 +0.41), as investors digest more details about the upcoming release of its answer (Zune) to Apple Computer’s (AAPL 74.46 +0.26) successful iPod. Microsoft shares are now at their best levels since surpassing $27 a share on April 27.DJ30 -14.41 NASDAQ +0.82 SP500 -2.01 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1673/1147/998 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1897/1212/694 mln

12:30 pm : No real change as the afternoon session gets underway as seven economic sectors still in negative territory continue to weigh on the proceedings. Fortunately for the bulls, market losses remain modest at best and, with the underlying tone for the market more optimistic, as evidenced in the upward drift every day so far this week, buyers still stand a chance of regaining the upper hand, especially if oil prices continue to fall and bond traders regain some confidence that tomorrow's inflation data will further support a soft landing for the economy.DJ30 -25.38 NASDAQ -0.68 SP500 -2.82 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1715/1079/902 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1953/1137/622 mln

[UpInArms]

32. closing numbers and blather

Dow 11,527.39 -15.93 (-0.14%)
Nasdaq 2,228.73 +1.06 (+0.05%)
S&P 500 1,316.28 -1.79 (-0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.793 +0.028 (+0.59%)

NYSE Volume 2,317,292,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,872,084,000

After four consecutive days of market gains, it wasn't shocking to see investors look a bit fatigued Thursday and questioning the sustainability of those advances, especially amid mixed economic data ahead of tomorrow's more closely-watched CPI report.

Before the bell, Aug. retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.2%, suggesting Q3 retail activity remained strong; but sales ex-autos checking in a bit weaker than expected left some overlooking the fact THAT the steady trend in spending still offered no indication of a significant economic slowdown. Meanwhile, initial claims fell to their lowest level in two months, indicating steady labor market trends. That was also reassuring. An unexpected rise in August import prices kept inflation concerns front and center until more clarity on the matter is revealed tomorrow.

Sure, oil prices fell for the eighth time in nine days, easing some of the Fed's concerns about higher energy prices putting pressure on overall inflation. Crude oil futures dropped 1.2% to $63.38 a barrel in sympathy with a 10% sell-off in natural gas futures to two-year lows following a larger than expected build in natural gas inventories. However, with oil prices now 21% off their record high of $80.64 a barrel on July 14, doubts crept in as to whether the S&P 500 will see a 13th straight quarter of double-digit profit growth, which has largely been the result of record earnings in the Energy sector (-1.7%).

The Financials sector was also in focus, as Bear Stearns (BSC 139.61 +3.39) became the latest investment bank to beat analysts' expectations. Also on investors' radar screens was the Aerospace & Defense group, as A.G. Edwards initiating coverage of General Dynamics (GD 70.91 +1.72) with a Buy helped the defense contractor surge 2.5% to a new 52-week high; but UBS downgrading bigger blue chip Boeing (BA 75.01 -1.31) took a toll on an Industrials sector that also suffered from profit taking across the transportation space. Yesterday, the Dow Jones Transportation Average was up more than 6.0% for the week.

At the end of the day, Thursday's trading didn't show any conviction on either the bullish or bearish side of the aisle as the major averages finished mixed and ended the session right around the unchanged mark. DJ30 -15.93 DJTA -0.7% NASDAQ +1.06 SP500 -1.79 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1664/1296/1.86 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1930/1304/1.44 bln