STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday September 19

[ozymandius]

Tuesday September 18, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 855 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2092 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1798 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1759
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 18, 2006

Dow... 11,555.00 -5.77 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq... 2,235.75 +0.16 (+0.01%)
S&P 500... 1,321.18 +1.31 (+0.10%)
Gold future... 592.80 +9.80 (+1.65%)
30-Year Bond 4.93% +0.01 (+0.16%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.81% +0.01 (+0.25%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Rob Kirby

A DELICATE BALANCE: WILL THEY OR WON'T THEY?

This week all eyes are on the Federal Reserve and the FOMC (Fed Open Market Committee), who meet on Wednesday, September 20, 2006 to issue their latest proclamation on short term (Fed Funds) interest rates.

With the Fed’s most recent policy statement, language was included in the statement indicating that some FOMC voting members were still “hawkish” with a bias toward higher short term interest rates.

The policy statement that is published and released along with interest rate decisions is generally taken to mean, by most market watchers, the bias toward or the likelihood of future rate moves.

-cut-

As per usual this Wednesday at about 2:15 p.m. ET, interest rate watchers will be paying as much attention to the accompanying policy statement as the actual FOMC decision on interest rates. Analysis of and interpreting sometimes ambiguous language known as “Fed Speak” has been elevated to an art form over the years.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's reports

8:30 AM Building Permits Aug
Briefing Forecast 1745K
Market Expects 1740K
Prior 1763K

8:30 AM Core PPI Aug
Briefing Forecast 0.2%
Market Expects 0.2%
Prior -0.3%

8:30 AM Housing Starts Aug
Briefing Forecast 1765K
Market Expects 1750K
Prior 1795K

8:30 AM PPI Aug
Briefing Forecast 0.2%
Market Expects 0.3%
Prior 0.1%

[UpInArms]

16. 8:30 reports:

8:30 AM ET 9/19/06 U.S. CORE FINISHED PPI UP 0.9% IN PAST YEAR

8:30 AM ET 9/19/06 U.S. JULY HOUSING STARTS REVISED TO 1.772MLN VS. 1.795MLN

8:30 AM ET 9/19/06 U.S. CORE INTERMEDIATE PPI UP 8.4% IN PAST YEAR

8:30 AM ET 9/19/06 U.S. AUG. HOUSING STARTS WEAKER THAN 1,75 MILLION EXPECTED

8:30 AM ET 9/19/06 U.S. AUG. SINGLE-FAMILY PERMITS FALL 3.5% TO 1.279 MLN

8:30 AM ET 9/19/06 U.S. AUG. SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSING STARTS FALL 5.9% TO 1.36MLN

8:30 AM ET 9/19/06 U.S. AUG. INTERMEDIATE PPI UP 0.4%

8:30 AM ET 9/19/06 U.S. HOUSING STARTS DOWN 19.8% YEAR-ON-YEAR

8:30 AM ET 9/19/06 U.S. AUG. BUILDING STARTS FALL 2.3% TO 1.722 MILLION RATE

8:30 AM ET 9/19/06 U.S. AUG. HOUSING STARTS FALL 6% TO 1.665 MILLION RATE

8:30 AM ET 9/19/06 U.S. AUG. CRUDE GOODS PPI UP 2.2%

8:30 AM ET 9/19/06 U.S. AUG. PPI ENERGY PRICES UP 0.3%

8:30 AM ET 9/19/06 U.S. AUG. CORE PPI DOWN 2 MONTHS, FIRST SINCE LATE 2002

8:30 AM ET 9/19/06 U.S. AUG. CORE PPI DOWN 0.4% VS. RISE 0.2% EXPECTED

8:30 AM ET 9/19/06 U.S. AUG. PPI UP 0.1% VS. RISE 0.3% EXPECTED

[UpInArms]

18. Housing: "rapidly collapsing market"

Housing starts fall more than expected
New construction of homes falls to 1.665 million rate, a 3-year low

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B1C82E6BD%2DB1BB%2D47C2%2D85ED%2D8182B80FE559%7D&symbol=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - New construction on U.S. homes was weaker than expected in August as builders adjusted to a rapidly collapsing market.

U.S. housing starts fell 6% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.665 million, the lowest since April 2003, the Commerce Department estimated Tuesday.

Housing starts have fallen in six of the past seven months.

Building permits, meanwhile, fell 2.3% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.722 million, the lowest since August 2002. Permits have fallen seven months in a row, as builders adjust to a significantly weaker sales market.

The figures were weaker than expected by Wall Street economists. According to the MarketWatch survey, housing starts were expected to sink about 2.5% to 1.75 million, while permits were expected to drop 1.6% to 1.74 million.

Housing starts in July were revised lower to a 3.3% drop to 1.772 million from 1.795 million reported earlier. Permits in July were revised higher to 1.763 million from 1.747 million earlier.

Housing starts are now down 19.8% in the past year. Building permits have fallen 21.9% year-on year.

...more...

[AnneD]

25. Morning Marketeers......

:donut: and lurkers. So I guess we won't be hearing about a 'soft landing' anymore:spray:. It is already affecting the real estate, housing construction, and title companies. The refi sector is getting slammed too. The next folks to get slammed are banks that are heavy in real estate loans, especially when folks start defaulting on their loans. Folks that have those ARM loans are going to be in trouble if they can't get into traditional loans soon. The Fed not raising rates has provided a bit of a breather, but I don't think that will last for long. Things are just now beginning to get 'interesting'. This is like a kid goat working it's way through an anaconda's digestive tract. It will take a while but you can see it winding it's way through.

On a different note, the memorial service for Ann Richards was very nice. Everyone that ever knew her has a great story. If you want to see clips, check out..
http://www.khou.com/


Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.....

[wordpix]

42. I just called a realtor about some land for sale on my street in Stamford

CT. He said it was an 8.5 ac. piece and the owners planned to divide the property into 5 lots at $700,000 each.

I've got news for those crackpots, they're not going to get so rich so quick by destroying so badly one nice property. Screw them, I hope they bought on spec and end up eating dirt.

[UpInArms]

19. U.S. Aug PPI up 0.1%, core down 0.4%

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BFD3AEB0B%2DE024%2D466F%2D9788%2D24FC5E06396B%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. prices of raw materials and other producers' inputs rose a slim 0.1% in August, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. Excluding food and energy costs, the core PPI fell 0.4%. This is the biggest drop in core PPI since April 2003 and the first two-month decline since late 2002. The low level of inflation was unexpected. Economists were forecasting the PPI to rise 0.3% and the core rate to rise 0.2%. On a year-on-year basis, the PPI is up 3.7%, down from 4.2% in July. Further back in the production cycle, crude goods prices rose 2.2% in August and were up 5.3% year-on-year. Intermediate goods prices increased 0.4%, and were up 8.8% over the past 12 months.

[UpInArms]

21. Cars drag down core producer prices in Aug

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060919/bs_nm/economy_prices_dc

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. producer prices edged up a smaller-than-expected 0.1 percent last month and core prices posted a surprise drop of 0.4 percent, the biggest since April 2003, on the back of sliding car prices, the government said on Tuesday.

The decline in the core producer price index, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, reflected a 2.6 percent drop in auto prices and a 3.4 percent decline in the price of light trucks and SUVs, the Labor Department said.

But even stripping out those sharp price declines, core producer prices would have been unchanged, it said.

Wall Street economists had expected the report, which comes one day ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates, to show both overall and core producer prices had risen 0.2 percent last month.

<snip>

Wholesale food prices shot up 1.4 percent, the department said.

...more at link...

[ozymandius]

3. Oil eases below $64, BP oilfield delay supports

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil eased further below $64 on Tuesday due to healthy U.S. fuel stocks, but a fresh delay to BP's giant Thunder Horse oilfield in the Gulf of Mexico limited the decline.

U.S. light crude fell 20 cents at $63.60 a barrel by 0957 GMT, while London Brent eased eight cents to $63.97 a barrel.

Prices rallied 47 cents on Monday, the biggest rise in three weeks, after BP said that production from Thunder Horse would be commissioned only in 2008. The oil major's previous target called for the first oil output sometime in mid-2007.

"The supply margin is so thin, every little blip is going to move the market. And the acute geopolitical risks have lessened but the chronic geopolitical risks are still there," said Tony Nunan, risk manager at Mitsubishi Corp. in Tokyo.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/markets_oil_dc

[ozymandius]

4. Oil prices rise on renewed Iran jitters

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia - Oil prices inched past the $64 a barrel mark Tuesday in Asia, as traders reacted to news that output at a mammoth BP PLC platform in the Gulf of Mexico would not be restored until mid-2008, at the earliest.

Oil traders were also cautious after Iran's latest threat to halt nuclear inspections if the U.N. went ahead with sanctions over its enrichment program.

Tuesday midmorning in Singapore, benchmark oil prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange for front-month October contracts were up by as much as 32 cents to $64.12 a barrel, before easing to $64.02 a barrel in the afternoon. It settled at $63.80 overnight in New York.

October contracts expire Wednesday.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060919/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_prices_13

[ozymandius]

5. Nigeria to restore oil production loss

SINGAPORE - Nigeria is working to soon restore losses in oil production because of militant attacks on some pipelines, the country's finance minister said Tuesday.

Over the last eight months, Nigeria's oil production has dropped 600,000 barrels a day to 1.9 million barrels from a projected 2.5 million barrels because of the attacks and violence in the oil-rich Niger Delta, said Finance Minister Nenadi E. Usman.

"Work on the broken pipelines is in progress. There is going to be some increase in production soon," Usman told reporters on the sidelines of a summit of the World Bank and IMF in Singapore.

Charles Soludo, Nigeria's central bank governor, said he expect the pipelines to be repaired "in weeks to months," but gave no timeframe.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060919/ap_on_bi_ge/singapore_nigeria_oil_1

[UpInArms]

27. Oct Crude @ $63.95 bbl - NatGas @ $5.07 mln btus

10:08 AM ET 9/19/06 OCT. CRUDE CLIMBS 15 CENTS TO $63.95/BRL IN EARLY TRADING

10:08 AM ET 9/19/06 OCT. NATURAL GAS CLIMBS 12.8 CENTS TO $5.07/MLN BTUS

[AnneD]

32. Thunder Horse still in the stall

Corrosion may be to blame for yet another problem for oil giant BP, this time a lengthy delay in the startup of its already overdue Thunder Horse platform in the Gulf of Mexico.
The company said Monday a key piece of undersea production equipment, called a manifold, failed during testing, possibly the result of a kind of corrosion that made the steel brittle.

The company plans to retrieve all four manifolds — equipment resting on the ocean floor that helps control the flow of oil and natural gas from multiple wells — for tests onshore.

Retrieving them is far from simple or cheap. The multimillion-dollar manifolds are sitting in about 6,000 feet of water, weigh 635,000 pounds each and are about the size of two tractor-trailer trucks parked side by side.
<snip>

This is the second major delay for Thunder Horse and just another verse to BP's recent litany of woes, including the deadly explosion at its Texas City refinery last year and this summer's shutdown of about half the production from the Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, oil field it operates because of internal corrosion.

<snip>
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/4196910.html

Once again, British Patch lives up (or down) to their reputation....:eyes:Ya gotta love those headline writers-we get some funny ones

[AnneD]

33. Here's a twofer for ya....

Lot of activity with this little company.....

Plains E&P Shares Rise on Asset Sale

NEW YORK — Plains Exploration & Production Co. shares jumped Monday, following a $700 million asset-sale agreement with Statoil ASA.

Shares of Plains E&P climbed $3.86, or 9.7 percent, to finish at $43.72 on the New York Stock Exchange. On a 52-week basis, there was a high of $47.39 on Aug. 11 and a low of $31.45 on June 13.

Analysts said Plains E&P struck a surprisingly good deal for the offshore blocks, noting the Houston-based energy company's relatively small investment and past deals for similar assets.

Statoil, the state-controlled Norwegian oil giant, agreed to acquire three oil prospects in the Gulf of Mexico from Plains for $700 million _ covering stakes in two oil finds in deep-water areas and one in a promising offshore block slated for exploration.
<snip>

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/fn/4195761.html

Plains sells prospects to Statoil
Norwegian firm pays $700 million for stakes in Gulf

OSLO, NORWAY - Norwegian state-controlled oil company Statoil on Monday announced the purchase of three oil prospects in the Gulf of Mexico from Houston-based Plains Exploration & Production Co. for $700 million.

Statoil is the key producer on offshore fields that make Norway the world's third-largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia and Russia. The company has been expanding internationally, including in the U.S. Gulf.

"This acquisition further strengthens our deep-water position in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico," said Peter Mellbye, Statoil executive vice president for international exploration and production.

Statoil said the deal is expected to close in November.

<snip>

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/4196902.html

[Robbien]

6. Big news on the hedge fund market today

This news was briefly mentioned in the wrapup yesterday but was very much downplayed.

A Hedge Fund’s Loss Rattles Nerves

Enormous losses at one of the nation’s largest hedge funds resurrected worries yesterday that major bets by these secretive, unregulated investment partnerships could create widespread financial disruptions.

The hedge fund, Amaranth Advisors, based in Greenwich, Conn., made an estimated $1 billion on rising energy prices last year. Yesterday, the fund told its investors that it had lost more than $3 billion in the recent downturn in natural gas and that it was working with its lenders and selling its holdings “to protect our investors.”

. . .

Yet also last week, Charles H. Winkler, chief operating officer at Amaranth, had met with prospective investors at the Four Seasons restaurant in Manhattan and reported that his fund was up 25 percent for the year, according to a meeting participant. Days later, rumors began circulating that Amaranth was losing money in one of its natural gas bets, a trade that had generated enormous profits for the fund in recent years.

Late in the week, the fund’s traders began dumping large stakes in convertible bonds and high-yield corporate debt, securities that could be sold without disrupting the market.

Mr. Winkler did not return a phone call seeking comment.

. . .

Traders briefed on Amaranth’s problems, including one person who examined the fund’s books yesterday, said that the losses might be considerably larger than the firm estimated. Over the weekend, according to one person briefed on the situation, Goldman Sachs examined the fund’s positions.

Amaranth is not the first hedge fund to experience problems in energy markets. MotherRock Energy Fund, a $400 million portfolio, shut down last month after losing money on its bets that natural gas prices would fall. Summer heat sent prices soaring and the fund lost 24.6 percent in June and 25.5 percent in July, according to one investor.

more
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/19/business/19hedge.html?ei=5094&en=2a7e31988e39d332&hp=&ex=1158724800&adxnnl=1&partner=homepage&adxnnlx=1158660530-I9yrWM7v/0oMNSDBHi3qCA&pagewanted=print

As usual the Wall Street cheerleaders will probably not be talking too much about this today.

[ozymandius]

8. Funny (odd) how Alan Greenscam's market pets are drags.

Greenscam trumpeted the beauty of adjustable rate mortgages. These same mortgages are now pulling people's home out from under them. Greenscam also lobbied against regulation of the hedge fund market. Now we see where that sector is going...

If Greenscam loves it - RUN - don't walk away.

[ozymandius]

9. The gamble that went spectacularly wrong

THE expensive mistake at the heart of the implosion at Amaranth Advisors appears to have been a huge bet that a longestablished trend in natural gas prices would continue.


-cut-

The traders had speculated that the difference between futures prices for natural gas in the summer and winter would continue to widen, as it had done since the start of 2004.

Instead, the gap narrowed dramatically, leaving the hedge fund manager nursing dramatic losses, thought to amount to several billion dollars, and scrambling to meet margin calls.

A year-to-date gain for investors of 22 per cent in their flagship funds was transformed in a matter of days into a 35 per cent loss.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,9063-2364349,00.html

[UpInArms]

12. Amaranth losses hit GSDO, other funds of hedge funds

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BB584FF01%2D7BA4%2D4234%2DB7F2%2DD56E990F976C%7D&symbol=

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Losses at multi-billion hedge fund manager Amaranth Advisors LLC have hit at least one London-listed fund of hedge funds, according to regulatory filings.

Goldman Sachs Dynamic Opportunities Ltd. (GSDO.LN), the hedge fund vehicle listed on the London Stock Exchange in July by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), late Monday said it may post a 2.5% to 3% loss in September because of its holding in Amaranth, depending on the performance of its other holdings.

As of Sept. 1, Amaranth accounted for about 5% of GSDO's overall investments across 18 hedge funds.

In a letter to investors Monday, Amaranth said it anticipated that year-to-date losses could be more than 35% after a fall in natural gas futures last week. As one of the biggest U.S. hedge funds, with $9.2 billion in assets at the end of August, Amaranth has been a key holding for a number of funds of hedge funds.

Recent U.S. regulatory filings show holdings in Amaranth by funds of hedge funds run by Morgan Stanley (MS) and Credit Suisse (CSR), among others.

No one at Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley was immediately available to comment. A spokesman for Credit Suisse declined to comment

...more...

Wasn't Paulson (now Treas Sec) a bigwig at Goldman? :think:

[Nimrod2005]

17. I would like to hear about 50 more of these stories.....nt

[AnneD]

38. Stick around...

I'm sure more will surface. I think this is just the tip of the iceberg. I think we will have a cascade effect. Between real estate, auto manufacturing, hedge funds, and cooked books-it's going to be interesting.

[Robbien]

39. There are plenty of these stories out there

But it gets so little press. This is the game the big money players like to play but secrecy is also the name of the game.

[AnneD]

40. And this is what is so neat about the internet...

it is getting harder to sneak these things under the radar. The eyes, ears, and minds on just this thread are amazing.

[ozymandius]

7. British Energy weighs on FTSE 100

British Energy Group led the FTSE 100 lower on Monday as the power generator warned about safety issue with boilers at two of its plants.

The company's shares slumped 6.5 per cent to 593½p as it said that cracking in a boiler at the Hunterston B plant in Scotland had been worse than expected.

In addition, it said its facility at Hinkley Point B was also being inspected for cracks.

The combination would hit output, British Energy said.

Fellow power generator Drax Group was another leading faller, down 2.9 per cent to 862p.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20060919/bs_ft/fto091920060636517681

[ozymandius]

10. Have a great day folks!

:donut: :donut: :donut:

Time is nigh to get moving out the door. Watch out for those futures charts. The first step is a loo-loo.

Ozy :hi:

[UpInArms]

11. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 85.95 Change +0.15 (+0.17%)

Central Bank Speak: What the G7 Had to Say

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/BoJ__Talking_Down_EUR_JPY_1158664749051.html

US Fed: Slowdown Ahead?



Many officials have accepted that a US economic slowdown is imminent, but rising inflation may leave the Fed in a tough spot…

Henry Paulson, U.S. Treasury Secretary

“We were able to report that US economic growth is settling into ranges more in line with our long term potential. We continue to see solid productivity growth and job growth, and we continue to make progress in bringing down our fiscal deficit. The residential housing market is cooling from record unsustainable growth rates, but growth in the US economy is being supported by other components, including wage growth, strong corporate balance sheets, and increased business capital investment.” – September 18, 2006

John Lipsky, IMF First Deputy Managing Director

“The somewhat slower growth in consumption in the US was part of an inevitable and desirable adjustment process. What is important is that it is kept in balance and on track and does not involve a slowdown in global growth.” – September 15, 2006

Raghuram Rajan, Chief Economist at IMF

“It is clear that even as the (US) economy slows, inflationary pressures are rising. If these become entrenched in expectations, the Fed will have to raise interest rates even higher and for longer. So the Fed may soon be on the horns of a dilemma and monetary policy will need to be skillfully managed if the economy is not to be gored.” – September 14, 2006

Paul Jenkins, Bank of Canada Deputy Governor

“The rates of growth in the U.S. were unsustainable, so some slowing was expected ... but even with the slowing in the U.S. growth, what we are seeing is stronger growth in the rest of the world.” – September 14, 2006

...more...

[UpInArms]

20. Dollar loses strength after PPI, housing starts

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BF1A4904E%2D3DAD%2D4C33%2D973A%2D675D86EB4F8C%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar eased against major currencies early Tuesday after government reports showed softer-than-expected producer price inflation and new construction of U.S. homes at a three-year low. Prices of raw materials and other producers' inputs rose a slim 0.1% in August, the Labor Department said. Excluding food and energy costs, the core PPI fell 0.4%. This is the biggest drop in core PPI since April 2003 and the first two-month decline since late 2002. Economists were forecasting the PPI to rise 0.3% and the core rate to rise 0.2%. Elsewhere, new construction on U.S. homes fell 6% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.665 million, the lowest since April 2003, the Commerce Department said. Housing starts have fallen in six of the past seven months. Economists expected housing starts to sink about 2.5% to 1.75 million. The euro was last at $1.2676 vs. $1.2663 before data. The dollar traded at 117.3 yen vs. 117.47 yen.

[UpInArms]

13. U.S. Sept homebuilder sentiment at 15-yr low -NAHB

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-09-18T203419Z_01_N18293773_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-HOUSING-UPDATE-2.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 18 (Reuters) - U.S. homebuilder optimism sank for the eighth straight month in September to the lowest level in more than 15 years, as a surge in unsold homes put development on ice, an industry survey showed on Monday.

The National Association of Home Builders said its survey also showed that its members see further downward momentum in the housing industry.

The NAHB said its index of homebuilder sentiment declined 3 points in September to 30, the lowest since February 1991, when the economy had slipped into recession. August's figure was revised upward to 33 from 32.

A reading below 50 means more builders view sales conditions as poor rather than good.

The gauge of sales expectations for the next six months fell 4 points to 37, the NAHB said. The measure for current sales of new homes declined 5 points to 32.

"It's about a degree of oversupply and how builders will work it down," including cutbacks on new construction, said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. Many buyers on the sidelines are unmoved by "substantial incentives," so price cuts are becoming more frequent, he said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

14. Just how much are borrowers with option ARMs going to suffer?

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B88CCCA7E%2DAE84%2D4043%2D8E24%2D8110F3516FC9%7D&symbol=

PALM BEACH GARDENS, Fla. (MarketWatch) -- Are you at risk with your adjustable-rate mortgage? More borrowers than originally thought may soon find themselves suffering payment shock. The great fear: Rising interest rates and falling home values.

<snip>

"People who got these things in the last two or three years are suffering from payments that are almost doubling," says Brian Mildenberg, predatory lending and consumer protection attorney with Mildenberg and Stalbaum in Philadelphia.

"Option ARMs" generally let you purchase homes at below-normal interest rates and payments. The problem: Some 70% of these borrowers are believed to be making only the minimum monthly payment.

<snip>

In the option ARM's fifth year, your monthly payment can exceed the payment cap. This can happen even sooner if added interest charges increase your balance to 115% of the original loan amount. Interest can be tacked on to the principal balance if your option payments each month don't cover even an interest-only minimum.

For simplicity's sake, say your interest rate becomes 7% in the second month, and there's no change -- which is very unlikely on an adjustable rate mortgage. If you chose the minimum monthly payment, your $743 monthly payment would rise to $992 by the fourth year. Expect the monthly payment to skyrocket further in the fifth year from $992 to $1,867!

...more...

[AnneD]

26. The rising interest rates were bad enough...

but the falling home values....Talk about having your nuts in a vise:evilgrin: (we really need a smilie for that)

[UpInArms]

15. US chain store sales fell in latest week

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-09-19T114634Z_01_NAT002211_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-RETAIL-ICSC-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 19 (Reuters) - U.S. chain store retail sales slipped in the latest week while overall demand compared with one year ago remained robust, a retail report said on Tuesday.

Sales fell 1.1 percent in the week ended Sept 16, compared with a 0.3 percent drop the previous week, the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS said in a joint report. The report attributed the decline to observance of the September 11 attacks.

Compared with the same week a year ago, sales rose a strong 4.9 percent following a sharp 3.8 percent year-ago gain the preceding week.

"Despite the strong year-over-year gain, consumer spending seemingly continued to show a 'September 11 observance effect' on sales that resulted in a low sales volume week with especially low volume on September 11th," said Michael P. Niemira, ICSC's chief economist and director of research.

"In addition to that new seasonal pattern, demand has been soft in the week of September 11 for the last five years and most likely is temporary. For the fiscal month of September, ICSC expects retail chain store sales to increase by around 3.5 percent for the month," Niemira added.

...more...

[UpInArms]

22. pre-opening blather

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.0.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.5. Futures indications continue to trade at improved levels but still don't offer much conviction from either the bulls or the bears. While today's economic data lend further support for the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged for a second month tomorrow, overblown concerns of what a larger than expected slowdown in the economy will do to consumer spending and corporate profits are acting as a bit of an overhang.

08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.5. Futures trade gets a boost following economic data, now pointing to a mixed open for the cash market. Total PPI rose just 0.1% (consensus 0.3%) while the more closely watched core rate unexpectedly fell 0.4% (consensus 0.2%), lending some confirmation to last Friday's favorable CPI data. Housing starts fell 6% in August to 1.67 mln (consensus 1.75 mln) while building permits fell to 1.72 mln (consensus 1.74 mln). Bonds, which were down slightly ahead of the data, are rallying as the 10-yr note is now up 10 ticks to yield 4.76%.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.8. Futures versus fair value are signaling a lower start for stocks as investors await updates on wholesale inflation (e.g. core-PPI) and the state of the housing market. Given the market's pre-occupation with how developments in the housing sector will affect consumer spending and Fed policy, especially heading into tomorrow's FOMC meeting, the Housing Starts report at 8:30 ET is apt to set the tone for this morning's trading. The PPI report will also be a focal point at 8:30 ET, but since the market already got a favorable read on inflation at the consumer level last week (e.g. core-CPI), its trading impact is apt to be diminished somewhat.

[UpInArms]

23. Treasuries rally after soft inflation,housing data

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-09-19T132230Z_01_N19366035_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 19 (Reuters) - U.S. government debt prices rose on Tuesday after surprisingly soft data on inflation and housing bolstered investors' expectations that the Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates in the near future.

Bond prices were essentially unchanged on the morning until the government said that U.S. producer prices edged up a smaller-than-expected 0.1 percent last month. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, posted a surprise drop of 0.4 percent, the biggest since April 2003, on the back of sliding car prices.

Treasuries prices shot higher immediately afterward, driving benchmark yields down by their biggest one-day margin in about a month. Bond yields and prices move inversely.

"I think (the PPI) adds credence to the story that inflation seems to be abating somewhat over the past two months, so the market is rallying on that positive inflation news," said Joseph Di Censo, fixed-income strategist with Lehman Brothers in New York.

Meanwhile, U.S. housing starts fell 6.0 percent in August to an annual pace of 1.665 million units, compared to 1.772 million in July. Economists had forecast August housing starts to decline to 1.75 million units.

...more...

[UpInArms]

24. 9:39 EST numbers

Dow 11,535.79 19.21 (0.17%)
Nasdaq 2,233.02 2.73 (0.12%)
S&P 500 1,319.76 1.42 (0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.765% 0.045

NYSE Volume 132,299,000
Nasdaq Volume 122,225,000

early morning reality check will be lost when the cheerleaders get louder - my prediction is that the markets will find a way to ignore those reports and everything because it was all "factored in" earlier :eyes:

[UpInArms]

28. 10:13 EST numbers and blather

Dow 11,536.27 18.73 (0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,234.34 1.41 (0.06%)
S&P 500 1,319.75 1.43 (0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.753% 0.057

NYSE Volume 377,252,000
Nasdaq Volume 315,591,000

10:00 am : Major averages continue to languish below the flat line as the bulk of sector leadership remains modestly negative. With Steel (-1.6%), Gold (-1.4%), Diversified Metals & Mining (-1.3%) and Aluminum (-1.1%) among four of this morning's five worst performing S&P industry groups, it's not surprising to see Materials pace the way lower. A more influential leader to the downside, though, is Industrials following analyst downgrades on Norfolk Southern (NSC 43.78 -1.02) and CSX Corp (CSX 31.94 -0.36) while the absence of leadership from Financials, despite a rally in bonds pushing yields lower across the curve, only adds to the underlying sense of nervousness. Th 10-year note is up 13 ticks to yield 4.75%. DJ30 -20.01 NASDAQ -2.13 SP500 -1.53 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1394/898/245 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1215/1129/209 mln

09:40 am : Stocks open slightly higher as weaker than expected economic data provide further proof that policy makers meeting tomorrow will leave interest rates unchanged tomorrow for a second straight month. Earlier, the Labor Dept. showed that core PPI surprisingly fell 0.4% to leave the year-over-year rate at just 0.9%, the lowest since March 2004 and easing the worst of inflation fears. This morning's housing data also support the argument that the Fed should stay on hold. Housing starts fell stronger than expected 6%, consistent with weak underlying demand and ballooning inventories of unsold homes, but not so much as to cause concerns of a severe overall economic slowdown. Per usual though ahead of a Fed policy statement, market gains are short-lived as investors err to the side of caution given the more optimistic view on inflation that has been priced into stocks of late.DJ30 -13.45 NASDAQ -3.12 SP500 -1.41 NASDAQ

[UpInArms]

29. Credit derivative banks must watch backlogs -FSA

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-09-19T140748Z_01_L19933179_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-DERIVATIVES-BACKLOGS.XML

LONDON, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Credit derivatives dealers must remain vigilant that trade confirmations backlogs do not rise again after efforts to cut them have largely succeeded, an official from the UK Financial Services Authority said on Tuesday. The credit derivatives market has grown exponentially since starting in the 1990s and now totals $26 trillion. The speed of expansion generated fears among regulators that banks' systems could not cope with the volumes of trades.

That led to a meeting between 14 dealers and regulators at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in September last year to set targets for cutting backlogs. Those targets were met in June, but there are concerns that the industry may have taken its eye off the ball.

"A year ago, let's be honest, the credit derivatives market was a mess ... an accident waiting to happen," Thomas Huertas, director for the wholesale firms division at the FSA, said at the regional conference of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association in London.

<snip>

But Tim Frost, principal at credit hedge fund Cairn Capital, told the conference that he had more concerns over operational issues with cash instruments than with derivatives.

He noted that banks had developed derivatives in the 1990s to diversify their loan portfolios. While the speed of growth of the industry meant that serious issues such as confirmation backlogs had arisen, the consequences if banks had not succeeded in shifting loan risk away from their books could have been costly, he said.

"The TMT bubble ... would have been a whole lot worse," Frost said. "We would have seen major financial institutions go down."

Instead, the risk has been spread out among investors all over the world, he said. "Financial systems are more stable because we ran that red light," Frost said.

...more...

[AnneD]

30. Survey shows drop in economic prospects

WASHINGTON —
<snip>
In the survey, 74 percent of the chief executives said they expected their sales to increase over the next six months. That was down from 82 percent in June.

The current survey also says 17 percent expect no change in sales and 9 percent are forecasting a decline.

On capital spending _ a key ingredient for healthy economic activity _ 39 percent said they expected to boost such spending over the next six months. That was down from 48 percent in the previous survey. Half of the executives in the current survey said they expected no change in their capital investment plans, while 11 percent expected a cut.

In terms of hiring in the months ahead, 32 percent of the chiefs said they expected to step up payrolls. That was down from 41 percent in the prior survey. Meanwhile, 39 percent in the current survey said they expected to hold employment steady and 29 percent thought they would shed workers.

<snip>

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/business/4195297.html

[dweller]

31. the cartoon ...

someone 'splain it to me... are those brands they are heating? or something else?

B C ?

dp

[TrogL]

34. Hammer and tongs, I think

IDGI either

[AnneD]

35. Either...

it has something to do with US sanctioned torturing those we hold captive (against the very principals of this nation) or........






it is pledge week at Dubya's old fraternity....:spray:

http://www.yaledailynews.com/Article.aspx?ArticleID=32122

[UpInArms]

44. I guess they are putting their (Bush and Cheney) brands on what

liberty (the statue and the reality) mean.

:shrug:

[dweller]

45. thanks all

been gone all day, appreciate the input.

Anne Telnaes rocks.

dp

[UpInArms]

36. PIEHOLE ALERT: Dimson-BullyBoy Snarls and Growls

12:30 PM ET 9/19/06 BUSH: SYRIA MUST END SUPPORT FOR TERROR GROUPS

12:28 PM ET 9/19/06 BUSH: IRAN MUST ABANDON NUCLEAR-WEAPONS PROGRAM

[Eugene]

37. Chrysler cuts output in bid to reduce inventory

UPDATE 2-Chrysler cuts output in bid to reduce inventory
Tue Sep 19, 2006 12:14pm ET

(Adds details from analyst presentation)

DETROIT, Sept 19 (Reuters) - DaimlerChrysler AG's (DCXGn.DE: Quote, Profile,
Research) U.S. arm Chrysler is cutting production by 135,000 units in the
second half of 2006 to reduce a glut of unsold trucks and sport utility
vehicles after a failed summer sales effort, the company said on Tuesday.

Most of the production cutback -- about 90,000 units -- will come in the current
quarter as Chrysler attempts to cut inventory and reduce the financial burden
on its dealers, Chief Executive Dieter Zetsche said in a presentation for
financial analysts.

DaimlerChrysler on Friday cut its 2006 operating profit by about $1.27 billion
(1 billion euros) and predicted that its Chrysler unit would lose about $1.5 billion
(1.2 billion euros) in the third quarter -- more than twice the loss initially projected.

The automaker's U.S. sales were down 8 percent in the first eight months of 2006,
compared to an industry-wide sales decline of 4 percent.

full article

[wordpix]

41. HP gets multiyear contract from Army

(Reuters) - Hewlett-Packard Co. on Tuesday said it received a 10-year contract from the U.S. Army to provide personal computers and other computer peripherals.

HP technology has been offered on eight of the nine awards of the $5 billion contract, based on HP's direct bid and seven channel partners' bids.

The order is part of a U.S. government requirement to ensure the operational readiness of the U.S. armed services worldwide, it said.

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20060919&ID=6034813

Could this have something to do with the HP spying on board members? Just a thought.

[UpInArms]

43. sweeping the floor and closing the door

Dow 11,540.91 14.09 (0.12%)
Nasdaq 2,222.37 13.38 (0.60%)
S&P 500 1,318.31 2.87 (0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.737% 0.073

NYSE Volume 2,404,658,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,152,922,000

Per usual the day before central bankers meet to discuss monetary policy, investors erred on the side of caution Tuesday. Unfortunately, what was shaping up to be a rather listless day at the onset of trading quickly became a negative event that sent the Nasdaq down 1.5% intraday, and briefly back into the red for the year, following reports of a coup attempt in Thailand and an announcement from Yahoo! (YHOO 25.75 -3.25) that its Q3 results are expected to be at the bottom half of prior guidance due to weakness in advertising.

With the next two weeks bringing the risk of an increased level of earnings warnings already underpinning a sense of nervousness, Yahoo's cautious-sounding outlook, coupled with news of a Q1 shortfall from Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM 29.84 -1.53), exacerbated overblown concerns of a severe overall economic slowdown and contributed to the Nasdaq snapping a seven-day winning streak.

Before the bell, the Commerce Dept. showed that housing starts fell 6% in August to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.665 mln units, the lowest reading in more than three years, which fed into fears about the economy slowing too much. Notwithstanding, the Labor Dept. reporting an unexpected 0.4% decline in core PPI, to leave the year-over-year rate at its lowest level (+0.9%) since March 2004, eased the worst of inflation fears and further supported the argument that the Fed should leave interest rates unchanged when it meets tomorrow afternoon (2:15 ET). To wit, fed funds futures are now pricing in only a 6% chance of any further rate hikes this year, down from 22% yesterday.

Nonetheless, not even a 3.3% sell-off in crude oil prices to six-month lows below $62 a barrel and a bond rally that pushed yields on the 10-year note down 8 basis points to 4.72% were enough to get buying efforts back on track as a sense that last week's huge run-up in stocks was overextended prompted investors to lock in market gains. As a reminder, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 1.5%, 1.6% and 3.2%, respectively, last week alone. BTK -0.7% DJ30 -14.09 DJTA -0.5% DJUA +0.2% DOT -1.1% NASDAQ -13.38 NQ100 -0.7% R2K -0.5% SOX -2.2% SP400 -0.3% SP500 -2.87 XOI -2.1% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1868/1126/2.12 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1867/1387/1.44 bln

3:30 pm : Investors are making a last-ditch effort to fully embrace more evidence that inflation is under control, following the surprising decline in core PPI, and that the Fed may be done raising rates. The indices are now at their best levels of the afternoon, with the Dow getting a big boost from Walt Disney (DIS 30.50 +0.44) after saying it expects to gernerate $50 mln in added revenue during the first year of the iTunes movie download program. Albeit nearly halving its intraday losses, the Nasdaq, however, still runs the risk of snapping a seven-day winning streak since Yahoo! (YHOO 25.33 -3.67) is still one of the most heavily-weighted components on the tech-heavy Composite and it's still down more than 12%. DJ30 -27.05 NASDAQ -14.84 SP500 -3.94 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2039/927/1.79 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2019/1216/1.19 bln

[wordpix]

46. PIEHOLE ALERT: Bush to appear in Greenwich, CT at repug fundraiser Monday

GREENWICH, Conn. (AP) _ President Bush plans to attend a private fundraiser in Greenwich on Monday, prompting Democrat Diane Farrell to say he's trying to rescue her opponent, Republican U.S. Rep. Chris Shays.

Bush will attend a Republican Party reception at an undisclosed private residence, said Peter Watkins, a White House spokesman. The event is a fundraising for the Connecticut Republican party, he said.

"President Bush is coming to Greenwich for two reasons: first, to thank Chris Shays for his unwavering support for the war in Iraq, and for a host of other Bush priorities; second, because President Bush knows Chris Shays is in serious trouble, he's here to try and rescue him," Farrell said. "This visit is a reward and a down payment on Chris Shays' continuing support for the war in Iraq. The president could have held this fundraiser anywhere in Connecticut, but he chose Chris Shays' district, which is understandable and appropriate."

GOP officials said the goal for the Bush fundraiser is about $400,000.

snip:
Harris added that Rell is not taking state party money. Her campaign has said it will not accept contributions from political action committees, lobbyists and people directly involved with state contracts.

Farrell, a former Westport first selectwoman, captured 48 percent of the vote two years ago when she first ran against Shays, who represents the 4th District in Fairfield County.

Rep. Simmons is running against Joe Courtney in the 2nd District in southeastern Connecticut and Rep. Johnson is running against Chris Murphy in the 5th District in northwestern Connecticut. Democrats are targeting all three Republican incumbents as they try to win the 15 seats they need to take control of the House.

Gov. M. Jodi Rell is running against Democratic New Haven Mayor John DeStefano.

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/connecticut/ny-bc-ct--bush-connecticut0919sep19,0,6608931.story?coll=ny-region-apconnecticut