STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday December 4.....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Thursday December 4, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 417
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 359
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 356 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 47 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 256
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 740
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 3, 2003

Dow... 9,873.42 +19.78 (+0.20%)
Nasdaq... 1,960.25 -19.82 (-1.00%)
S&P 500... 1,064.73 -1.89 (-0.18%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.41% +0.03 (+0.68%)
Gold future... 404.80 +0.20 (+0.05%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

The Jury is Still Out

Stocks opened higher this morning in anticipation of a good report for the U.S. Service Sector and a positive report on productivity gains from the Labor Department. The Dow Jones Industrial Average moved about 60 points higher in the first half-hour since economists had forecast the ISM Services Index to come in with a reading of 64.5 following October’s reading of 64.7. The actual number was announced at 60.1 and the Dow sold-off about 30 points, only to recover and move higher once again. While the reading of 60.1 was below expectations, a number above 50 signifies expansion, which is positive for the economy moving forward. Service industries in the USA make up 85% of our Gross Domestic Product, so it’s critical to see continued expansion in this area.

<cut>

The economic reports proved positive for stocks, but investors decided to take profits late in the session. The Nasdaq actually poked through the magic 2,000 level today, but then got spanked for a nasty 40-point selling spree in the last two hours. At the closing bell the Dow Industrials gained 19 points to close at 9,873, the NASDAQ lost 19 points for a close of 1,960, and the S&P 500 closed slightly in the red at 1,064. The Dow Industrials have been working overtime to get a close above 9,900, so it will just have to wait for another day. This looks like the beginning of a flight to quality, away from small-cap stocks, back to the blue chips.

Economic Uncertainty

Money came out of U.S. Treasuries today as bonds sold-off with the positive economic reports, increasing the yield on the 10-year note to 4.41%. The U.S. dollar also dropped slightly in value again today with a reading of 89.6 on the U.S. Dollar Index with a euro costing $1.21. Today we have weakness in the dollar, weakness in the bond market, and now stocks are trying desperately to remain in positive territory. The simple answer to all of this says we are “not out of the woods” to unbridled economic expansion; the jury is still out. We have had some great economic stories to tell over the last few months, but will the expansion be sustained? Most market participants recognize that the recent positive reports have been the result of massive federal stimulus via deficit spending and low interest rates. Federal Reserve officials are still waiting for more signs that the recovery is going to stick.

In an interview last week, Federal Reserve Governor Edward Gramlich suggested that central bankers will wait for more signs of a sustainable expansion before changing interest rates or even their outlook on the economy. According to Mr. Gramlich, “For me personally, we have to see more evidence.” The Federal Reserve meets again on December 9th, and there is a 100% consensus that they will leave rates unchanged.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Good morning Marketeers!

It is time for me to leave. So early... and other Marketeers have not even checked in yet. Alas, I will pop back in this afternoon if time allows.

A prediction: I suspect that there is enough positive sentiment in the financial pages that will precipitate a rise in markets today. That being said, this is a setup for profit taking tomorrow. The rhythm of market psychology just seems to flow this way lately.

I hope you have a great day! :hi:

Ozymandius

[JNelson6563]

3. Morning Ozy!

Futures are looking pretty good this morning. Was surprised to see the profit-taking of yesterday...

We've got retail reports out today and weekly UE#s. Anybody want to wager on what the revison of last week's #s will be? Caught a littl eprep for it last night on CNBC. They said to remember good #s are already priced into the markets so if there is any bad news, things may get unpleasant.

In other words, if the markets doesn't skyrocket at good news, it's perfectly natural, it's all priced in. hahaha Remember all the blatantly pumped figures of late, GDP etc? Beyond anyone's wildest expectations...right? Remember? And the market snoozed. Fell some too. Ah, wait, it's priced in. <snarf> How can something no one in their right expected be already priced in? Oy!

Julie

[Maeve]

4. Julie, Julie, Julie....haven't you learned yet?

It's all good, everything is getting better and the casino makes no sense anyway :eyes: Shut up and eat your increased chocolate ration.

Initial Claims Day--we all know the drill now. My "seer trick" is out of the bag--last week's figure will be revised upward from 351K (there's a 51/52 chance of accuracy in that prediciton, based on the past year). Market expects the figure for today to come in at 354-355K; if it does, it will probably be heralded as another "drop". In reality (as near as can be deduced), there does seem to be a slowing of the job drain over-all. That's a GOOD thing for people, but the quality of jobs is a whole nother question. One story we've heard is that there are more small companies now; does this news story come as a big surprise to DU Marketeers?
Survey finds benefits are key to job satisfaction
Bigger firms' benefits spur satisfaction

74% of workers at big companies are OK with benefits package, vs. 47% at smaller organizations.
December 4, 2003: 6:08 AM EST
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - If you work at a big corporation, you're much more likely to be satisfied with your benefits package, a key component of job satisfaction, a survey said Thursday.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

A day to go malling for me--I'll try to get a parking lot report in later.

[Sir_Shrek]

10. Stocks are overvalued....

So I wouldn't dismiss the thought of "pricing in" or whatever they're calling it so readily.

If there are a lot of long term investors (via 401(k)s, IRAs, 529s, etc etc etc), they're probably not so concerned about whether stuff is priced in. They might not even be able to tell you what stocks they own, for that matter....

[UpInArms]

5. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 89.73 Change +0.23 (+0.26%)

looks like the dollar has dodged the bullet for the moment - the currency market rebounded with the news from the press release propaganda mouthpiece of FAUX/Murdoch that * Co would drop the steel tariffs (now I wish that most people would realize how much the policies of the mal-administration actually affect the value of our currency) -

it is rather humorous that this happened only after the grab-and-runner got his money from the Pittsburg steel crowd <sigh>

Opec is rather pissed that their dollars are so worthless - see:

http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/Articles.asp?Article=68274&Sn=BUSI

Opec yesterday said it was seeking to defend higher oil prices to compensate for the impact on the members' purchasing power of the US dollar's decline on currency markets.

<snip>

The index has topped $28 in recent weeks and US crude is averaging $30.88 a barrel for the year to date, the highest nominal average since 1982.

...more...

More of the back to the 80s crap - guess the collective amnesia group doesn't remember the lousy economic climate of the US in the 80s :shrug:

Next year should be very interesting as the US gets to take over the presidency of the G7 and will get to spin their lies worldwide without sanity intervening

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2003/12/04/rtr1168976.html

The United States picks up the rotating annual presidency of the informal G7 club for 2004 and the next gathering of finance ministers and central bankers is expected in February.

<snip>

"There is still a significant risk that the pace of the dollar decline accelerates markedly," think- tank Economist Intelligence Unit said this week in its global economic outlook.

"We believe that there is a 30 percent probability that the dollar falls well beyond 1.30 per euro and 100 yen in the months ahead, with serious implications for economic growth in Europe." The dollar set a record low of 1.2128 to the euro on Wednesday, according to Reuters data, and was trading about 108.25 yen.

...more...

Well, that's all for now Marketeers -

Have a Great Day at the Roulette Table!

[Maeve]

6. Initial Claims rise slightly

Initial jobless claims rise to 365,000 in latest week from revised 354,000. Details coming

[mth44sc]

7. Jobless claims rise

Jobless claims rise

...The Labor Department said 365,000 people filed new claims for unemployment benefits in the week ended Nov. 29, compared with a revised reading of 354,000 in the prior week. Economists, on average, expected 354,000 new claims, according to Briefing.com.

http://money.cnn.com/2003/12/04/news/economy/jobless/index.htm

Anyone recall what last weeks unrevised number was?

[Maeve]

8. Last week's unrevised was 351K eom

[Systematic Chaos]

9. Holy exchange rates, Batman!

Looks like every time the dollar tries to rally on our little graphs up there, it just plunges straight down to a new low... and this latest drop from about 8 to 9 on the time scale looks REAL bad. Aye carumba!

[Maeve]

11. Another article that you might want to see

Rising oil, rising inflation
Crude inflation
Indications from OPEC that it may allow the price of oil to rise have important implications.
December 4, 2003: 8:51 AM EST
By Justin Lahart, CNN/Money Senior Writer
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The good news out of Vienna Thursday was that OPEC ministers were unlikely, with winter descending upon the Northern Hemisphere, to cut their oil production quotas.

The bad news was that, as the ministers ambled in and out of Vienna's pastry shops, they found the dollars they made selling oil wouldn't buy nearly as much Linzertorte as they did a year ago.

More than 20 percent less, in fact. The euro has been on a tear against the dollar, as have most of the world's currencies -- the Fed's trade-weighted dollar index has declined nearly 16 percent.

And so, unsurprisingly, the ministers have indicated that OPEC's preferred price band of $22 to $28 a barrel for oil is more or less defunct. Right now the basket of oil prices that OPEC keeps tabs on is just above the upper end of that range
<more>

[UpInArms]

13. gee, ya think the word inflation

might seep into the collective thought process?

Nor should we view this in a vacuum. Any overseas business (unless it is in a place like China, with a dollar-pegged currency) that sells to the United States is getting and less and less bang for the bucks it earns. To preserve profits, it's eventually going to have to raise prices.

Meantime, U.S. companies that buy goods from overseas, or raw materials that are globally traded (like oil) are going to see price increases. To preserve profits they too will need to raise prices.

Given all the recent carping about deflation, this whiff of inflation doesn't seem like such a bad thing. But there may be some cause for concern. In most cases, rising inflation in the United States comes from an economy that is running too hot. In this case, it is coming instead from a decline in the dollar. How is this going to pan out?

I suppose that the numbers will continue to reflect how "hot" our economy is.

[Maeve]

12. I'll start the number watch off....9:33

But then I HAVE to get out of here! :eyes: But then, the mall doesn't open until 10...

Dow 9,874.68 +1.26 (+0.01%)
Nasdaq 1,966.08 +5.83 (+0.30%)
S&P 500 1,065.75 +1.02 (+0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.409% -0.001

[UpInArms]

17. complete disconnect with the numbers at 10:04 EST

Dow 9,904.53 +31.11 (+0.32%)
Nasdaq 1,965.29 +5.04 (+0.26%)
S&P 500 1,067.57 +2.84 (+0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 4.404% -0.006

and the dollar is unhappy

Last trade 89.27 Change -0.23 (-0.26%)

[UpInArms]

18. guess we all need to start the day

with our bowl of saki

'cause without the BoJ Intervention (not just a rumour), we couldn't have numbers like this!

Dow 9,924.38 +50.96 (+0.52%)
Nasdaq 1,970.62 +10.37 (+0.53%)
S&P 500 1,069.54 +4.81 (+0.45%)
10-Yr Bond 4.391% -0.019

and the dollar is now so happy!

Last trade 89.69 Change +0.19 (+0.21%)

(on edit - fixed html)

[Robbien]

14. In the mutual funds scandal story

Merrill Lynch is preemptively releasing the story that they overcharged 22,000 customers of certain mutual funds by not giving customers their rightful discounts.

http://www.msnbc.com/news/1001130.asp?0ct=-302&cp1=1

And The Street (paid subscription) has a story that there are Three More Mutual Fund Scandals in the Making. Scandals such as double dipping on fees, undisclosed fees and more manipulation of the rules.

[JNelson6563]

15. Quite a day already, eh?

So I wonder what today's numbers really were? We'll find out next week I suppose.... ;-)

More Mutual Fund scandals?? Oh boy!!

Here's a blurb on some retail coming out:

Reuters
Retail Sales Mixed; Luxury Over Discounts
Thursday December 4, 9:21 am ET
By Emily Kaiser


CHICAGO (Reuters) - Shoppers splurged at upscale stores in November, but many lower-end chains posted poor-to-average sales in a mixed start to the big holiday shopping season, U.S. retailers reported on Thursday.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE:WMT - News), the world's biggest company, managed to hit the mid-point of its sales forecast, but the day after Thanksgiving -- the traditional start of the holiday shopping season -- was disappointing.

Lower-priced department stores Sears, Roebuck and Co. (NYSE:S - News) and Kohl's Corp. (NYSE:KSS - News) missed their November sales targets, while high-end chains Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE:JWN - News) and Saks Inc. (NYSE:SKS - News) both reported much stronger-than-expected sales.

Target Corp. (NYSE:TGT - News) also turned in a strong performance for the month, easily outpacing rival Wal-Mart. Target is considered slightly more upscale than Wal-Mart -- a reputation that hurt its sales last year when a weak economy prompted many consumers to cut spending.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/031204/retail_sales_2.html

There you have it. Remember reading about the depression? It was either folk shad plenty or nothing. Does anyone else see this similarity with today's info?

Of course since we know Maeve is out shopping today we'll watch for a big spike in sales. ;-)

10:00 and here's how things look:


Dow 9,893.93 +20.51 (+0.21%)
Nasdaq 1,960.84 +0.59 (+0.03%)
S&P 500 1,065.89 +1.16 (+0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.404% -0.006


Julie

[Sir_Shrek]

16. That's weird

I went out on Black Friday to kind of a ritzy-ish shopping mall and it was pretty much empty. Neimann Marcus was actually pretty packed, but the rest of the places didn't look any more crowded than usual. The only other upscale place I went that was packed (literally shoulder to shoulder) into was a wine/gourmet shop. But all of the other upscalish places didn't have a whole lot going on in them.

Stopped at some more "normal" retail places on the way home and they were packed to the gills.

Talking about this on CNBC right now actually....

on edit: I'd hardly say we're in a depression though. We need to get up around 15%-20% unemployment to get real comparisons to that....

[htuttle]

19. As a man was heard to say while falling past a window on the 20th floor

"So far, so good!"

[Sir_Shrek]

21. I don't think we'll get there......n/t

...

[JNelson6563]

22. I don't think we are in depression either

but sometimes I feel like we are headed that way.

Julie

[SpiralHawk]

27. Splurging at the upscale stores?

Apparently its going to be a Very Merry Christmas for the Plutocrats.

While the Giant Box stores that serve the Proles are quiet, and Proles huddle forlornly round their heaps of credit card, gas, oil and electric bills. They should be so lucky as to get a lump of coal from the Plutocracy-Republicans -- at least a lump of coal could be burned for warmth.

The Bush-Republican Economic Revolution Rolls On.

Remember, a rising tide lifts all yachts.

[radfringe]

35. first you have to have DISPOSABLE INCOME

before you can dispose of it :evilgrin:

the upscale stores are selling - why? because upscale people have money - lots of it and are more than happy to dispose some of it

the rest of us? not as much or no disposable income - so sales will be lower

keep an eye on the "christmas money" numbers - they will be "cooked" to make things look better than they are

[Sir_Shrek]

20. World Events and the Stock Market

Sorry if this is an off-topic.....

Just got an interesting email forward...cleaned it up for posting:

Can you match the yearly performance of the S&P 500 to the year and world event that accompanied it? No cheating (answers below)!

1. 1947 - The Cold War begins
2. 1979 - Inflation and oil prices skyrocket
3. 1960 - Russia downs US spy plane
4. 1942 - Gas rationing begins
5. 1941 - Pearl Harbor
6. 1962 - Cuban Missile Crisis
7. 1981 - High unemployment
8. 1974 - Deep recession in US and Europe

A. -4.91
B. +20.34
C. -26.47
D. -11.59
E. +18.44
F. +0.47
G. +5.71
H. -8.73

I'll post the answers shortly......

[Sven77]

25. answers needed

dont leave me hanging :hi:

[Sir_Shrek]

26. ANSWERS

1. G
2. E
3. F
4. B
5. D
6. H
7. A
8. C

[JNelson6563]

23. 11:42 update

Dow 9,911.05 +37.63 (+0.38%)
Nasdaq 1,963.89 +3.64 (+0.19%)
S&P 500 1,068.22 +3.49 (+0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 4.387% -0.023


Good to see a little $$ going into Treasuries.

Julie

[Sir_Shrek]

24. May mean....

....inflation not expected to be bad, at least in the somewhat short term. Someone also posted that the dollar was gaining....don't know if that has anything to do with it, but could I guess.

[teryang]

28. Did anyone see the article on record insider sales?

...on Yahoo Finance? I saw it earlier today but went back to cut and paste it, and it was gone. I think it said that insider sales were at a two year high. Bearish right? Every time I hear the market is having a great day, I go over to Thomsoninvest.net and I see the institutions have huge sell orders out.

[Sir_Shrek]

29. This one?

http://biz.yahoo.com/fool/031202/1070367360_1.html

on edit: nope, I don't think that's it. Though if an institution has a huge sell or order, it doesn't necessarily mean that they aren't going to buy something else....

[teryang]

39. Thanks for your response

I think an avalanche of insider selling at many major corporations is a bad sign. Your right, that wasn't the article. I find it strange that the fool is telling this tale when the macro figures on insider selling are much more significant.

The large amount of institutional selling as the market approaches intermediate term highs is probably smart trading and to be expected. But it definitely runs contrary to the publicized hype. While the industry and media are encouraging people to buy, the pros are selling.

I'm a fool, I started buying again. Therefore, I know it's a mistake based on my track record.

[mth44sc]

30. The afternoon WOWZER

Snow: 'Strong Dollar Policy' Stands Firm

By Associated Press

December 4, 2003, 12:21 PM EST

WASHINGTON -- Treasury Secretary John Snow reiterated America's strong dollar policy on Thursday, staying silent on whether the U.S. government planned to intervene in response to the euro hitting another record high against the dollar.

"We have a strong dollar policy. I think the dollar -- as other currencies' value -- is best set in open, competitive currency markets," Snow said outside the White House after attending a bill-signing ceremony.

Asked whether the U.S. government planned to intervene, Snow replied: "I've told you what I can say about the dollar."

more
http://www.newsday.com/news/politics/wire/sns-ap-snow-dollar,0,7480878,print.story?coll=sns-ap-politics-headlines

[UpInArms]

31. LOL!!!

"We have driven the infidels from the currency market," Comical John reported.

[mrsteve]

32. 2:15 numbers - hello everyone, good to be back

After 3 days of ugly meetings and PC problems at work, I can once again catch up on DU and the stock market thread.

Looks like today now has a lot of profit taking off the morning's gains.

Dow 9,890.53 +17.11 (+0.17%)
Nasdaq 1,948.39 -11.86 (-0.61%)
S&P 500 1,064.82 +0.10 (+0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.369% -0.041

[JNelson6563]

33. Welcome back Steve!

I've wondered where you were. Good to see you.

I leave for the day now. Young Miss has violin on Thurs. Catch you marketeers tomorrow.

:hi:

Julie

[Maeve]

34. 3:33 and home again

A view toward the mall---shopping may be a tad heavier at the mall over last year and the stores have more "high end" stuff dramitically displayed. Not as deep discounts as previous years--less smell of fear in the air. However...more clerks standing around looking for someone to wait on, too. :shrug: Discount stores were much busier, same as last year. It's still early in the shopping season, but there are some signs of a lift. Not a boom year, tho, if central Ohio is any indication.

Looks like a thrill ride today...
Dow 9,913.42 +40.00 (+0.41%)
Nasdaq 1,958.74 -1.51 (-0.08%)
S&P 500 1,067.79 +3.06 (+0.29%)
10-Yr Bond 4.369% -0.041

[mrsteve]

36. Closing numbers - and everything goes back up again

The bulls are running again...

Dow 9,930.82 +57.40 (+0.58%)
Nasdaq 1,968.80 +8.55 (+0.44%)
S&P 500 1,069.71 +4.98 (+0.47%)
10-Yr Bond 4.369% -0.041

Yahoo Finance Updates:
"3:30PM: In contrast to yesterday's session, the dip has been used as a buying opportunity in today's session... Accordingly, the Dow has been catapulted to its session highs, the S&P 500 is sporting mild gains, and the Nasdaq has pared its losses in a significant fashion and is within reach of the unchanged line... The bulk of the sectors remain in the red, but groups in positive territory include the consumer, telecommunications, oil services, utility, communications equipment, and aluminum sectors... Laggards of note are the airline, gold, semiconductor, internet, and biotech sectors...
The airline sector, as indicated by the XAL index, has been under pressure since the beginning of December and in a negatively-sloping trendline since setting its 52-week high in the middle of October... Raymond James downgraded Southwest Airlines (LUV 16.79 -1.03) to Market Perform from Buy citing further weakening in November airfares and expected higher unit costs, as well as high valuation relative to peers..."

See everyone tomorrow!

[54anickel]

37. Ozy called it this AM. See if tomorrow will be profit taking...2/2?

[Robbien]

38. Do you need further proof

that the rich got richer and everyone else got poorer? According to Yahoo:

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Wealthier shoppers splurged at luxury stores in November as consumer confidence grew, but many lower-end chains had poor-to-average sales in a mixed start to the big holiday shopping season, U.S. retailers reported on Thursday.