Poll indicates Crist leading Davis in Florida governor's race--Not Good!!!

[demo dutch]

Poll indicates Crist leading Davis in Florida governor's race

By John Kennedy and Jason Garcia
sun-sentinel.com Tallahassee Bureau
Posted September 27 2006, 12:52 PM EDT

Republican Charlie Crist holds a commanding lead over Democrat Jim Davis in Florida's race for governor, helped by a barrage of television advertising and strong crossover support from Democrats, according to an Orlando Sentinel poll released on Tuesday.

Crist leads Davis by 51 percent to 36 percent, with 11 percent undecided and 2 percent of voters backing other candidates in the contest to succeed outgoing Republican Gov. Jeb Bush.
"Crist has had the money to stay on TV, and people know him and generally like him," said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., which conducted the survey for the Sentinel and WESH-Channel 2.

"But Davis still isn't known to 1-in-5 voters. He's a blank slate. And Crist is going to be able to define him any way he wants," Coker added.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-927govracepoll,0,7124334.story?coll=sfla-home-headlines

It doesn't look good guys! Haven't seen or heard from Davis at all! My husband and I emailed the campaign to volunteer weeks ago and never heard even anything back!

[Dudley_DUright]

1. Same here

I have seen tons of Crist ads on local TV, but not one for Davis.

[bullimiami]

2. if i didnt listen to jim defede in the morning i wouldnt have heard

a thing about davis ever. there are crist signs everywhere.

[demo dutch]

3. Heard from some inside sources before primary that GOP was more

worried about running against Rod Smith.
I'll be upset if Davis loses but as long we win big in the house and Hous & Senate.
Clay Shaw for one as got to go! Jim Foley etc. and it would be nice if Eleana got out kicked as well!

[bluestateguy]

4. This strikes me as false

Crist is leading by 5.

[Zynx]

5. That's okay. This hasn't been on our main list of pickups this year anyway

[guajira]

6. I'm Not Surprised

Crist has been running TV ads on a daily basis. You'd have to be deaf and blind not to know who he is!

Davis is not running ads and not even yard signs in my area. I have a bumper sticker for Davis, but don't see many others.

Unfortunately this kind of campaigning is becoming normal for Democrats - which explains why we're not in power.

Plus we don't have a message that resonates with voters.

[demo dutch]

13. I have a bumper sticker too but have not seen any others either

[democrat in Tallahassee]

7. Honestly, after Jeb anybody will be a huge improvement and

Crist is moderate leaning toward liberal (and gay.)

[maseman]

8. He's gay?

[Crazy8s]

9. I'm seeing Davis ads in the Tampa Bay area

I get the Tampa stations up here in Brooksville, and the Davis ads are running just as much as the Crist ones. He does have less variety, tho. I also received a call inviting me to come to local gathering where Davis was meeting with Dems. I could not go, as I was working'

I don't know that I trust any polls anymore. I say polls be damned! Don't let 'em scare us into thinking our votes are in vain! Get out there and support our candidates and screw the poll bs!!

I am appalled at the Dems from Smith's campaign that have jumped ship to support Crist. Idiots!

[demo dutch]

14. Maybe they're running ads in tough districts since money is a problem

I'm in democratic county, so we're taken for granted?

[stuartrida]

10. It will be tough for Davis, but he could pull it off. Most polls show him

doing better than this one.

[demo dutch]

16. The best I could find is 10 pts behind

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/latestpolls/

[tinfoilinfor2005]

11. It is my understanding that Bob Graham was helping to manage

his campaign. This was told to us at the State convention where we were delegates, and Bob was there next to Jim at the opening night party, along with Max Cleland. Bob was very popular in Florida and a few ads with his face would help Jim immensely. I'm just wondering what they're waiting for.

[seasat]

12. The good news is that his support is soft.

Polls from just last week had a 5-6% difference. If they switch that easily in a week they can switch back if we can get the word out.

The problem with a big state wide campaign in Florida is that the Repug party is extremely entrenched. They've set up rules that allow special interests to give them big gobs of money in exchange for favors. Jim Davis is an outsider from Tallahassee and isn't tied to the corrupt special interest groups. Davis is hampered in that since he is still a US rep, he has to abide by McCain/Feingold rules. Crist doesn't have to follow those rules and is also getting a huge amount of money from lobbyists. For example, Crist has strong support from developers like Mel Sembler and Donald Trump. They've been bundling funds for him.

Crist also has strong support from the trial lawyers. Jebbie is an ideologue and was solidly for tort reform. The trial lawyers know that Crist can be bought pretty cheap and will support overturning the tort reforms. KottKamp, Crist's running mate, works for Morgan and Morgan, one of the largest most advertised personal injury law firms in the state. The head of Morgan, a democrat, started backing Crist when he first announced he was running.

Smith would have had just as tough time and probably tougher against Crist. Smith had the backing of corporate sugar. That had turned off the base that supports environmental issues. Crist actually has a better environmental record than Smith. The negative ads and sugar support had doubled Smith's unfavorable rating in the last poll before the primary. Even with the money from big sugar, Smith still wouldn't be able to keep up with Crist's special interest money. Anyone that tells you that Smith would have been tougher is probably a Republican and trying to weaken your support for Davis. If Smith had won, they'd tell us that Davis was the tougher candidate. Jebbie seemed to think Davis was tougher since he attacked him after one of the Democratic debates.

We can still win. We need to weaken Crist's support among social conservatives by mentioning that it is great to have two prochoice candidates running for Governor. If they mention Davis and Terry Shiavo. Point out to them that Crist has said that he wouldn't have signed Terry's law. Of course, Crist just kept out of the way during the whole Terry fest thing and didn't really state his opinion then. That's how Chameleon Charly works. He only takes a stand when it is safe. We also need to point out that Davis has never been divorced, is married, and has two kids.

We also need to tie Crist to Jebbie's unpopular policies. Crist was education commissioner during the first implementation of the FCAT. Jim Davis has just released a detailed policy paper on how he will change the FCAT from a do or die test to a diagnostic test. Chameleon Charly supports Jebbie's F- plan which has seen the percentage of black enrollment decline in state colleges. Chameleon Charly was on the cabinet that oversaw the state insurance debacle. He didn't do anything then and won't do anything in the future. Chameleon Charly was part of the administration that shifted state funding onto the back of property owners. They are eliminating the only progressive tax, the intangibles tax, and forcing local governments to fund education through regressive taxes.

We can also weaken Crist's support among business. We need to emphasize that Jim Davis is probusiness, especially small business. He's sponsored legislation in the US house that would allow businesses to deduct employee training expenses. Chameleon Charly is now tied with trial lawyers and will eliminate all those tort reforms that Jebbie put in place.

Finally, Jim does have some great ideas in place. We need to get those out. Most of all, we need money to help spread the message.

[demo dutch]

15. It's not fair that candidates must ahear to different campaign money rules

I didn't know that. It's already un unevenplaying field as it is!

[Freddie Stubbs]

18. Davis should have resigned from Congress

It wasn't like he was making many votes anyway.

[seasat]

19. BS repug talking point. Jim only missed 25% of the votes.

He showed up for all the meaningful votes where he could make a difference. Prior to his starting the Governor's race, he had a 97% attendance record. Would you actually prefer that Jim Davis resign and Jebbie appoint a hard core Repug in his place? It's no wonder we're having a tough time in Florida with Democrats like you.

[Freddie Stubbs]

20. Governors don't get to appoint replacements for members of the House

That's the Senate. A special election would have been held, and Davis' solidly Democratic district would have elected another Democrat.

[seasat]

17. Rasmussen Poll Today Crist by 5%

(LINK) Something is weird in the polls. Some polls are showing a race within the margin of error and others are showing Crist with a large lead. It seems that interactive polls like Zogby also show a wider margin. I'll check Mason/Dixon's methodology but Rasmussen is usually a Repug leaning firm.

[demo dutch]

21. Well if it's close it will be easier to steal!

[cureautismnow]

22. These polls need to specify...

...how many polled were dem.'s, how many were repukes, and how many were independents. No poll should be published that doesn't disclose this information.

[NotGivingUp]

23. my god, his face was on our tv set every 5 minutes. it was disgusting.