Cleric Is Said to Lose Reins Over Part of Iraqi Militia

[ECH1969]

The radical Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr has lost control of portions of his Mahdi Army militia that are splintering off into freelance death squads and criminal gangs, a senior coalition intelligence official said Wednesday.

The question of how tightly Mr. Sadr holds the militia, one of the largest armed groups in Iraq, is of critical importance to American and Iraqi officials. Seeking to ease the sectarian violence raging across the country, they have pressed him to join the political process and curb his fighters, who see themselves as defenders of Shiism — and often as agents of vengeance against Sunnis.

But as Mr. Sadr has taken a more active role in the government, as many as a third of his militiamen have grown frustrated with the constraints of compromise and have broken off, often selling their services to the highest bidders, said the official, who spoke to reporters in Baghdad on condition of anonymity because he was not permitted to speak publicly on intelligence issues.

“When Sadr says you can’t do this, for whatever political reason, that’s when they start to go rogue,” the official said. “Frankly, at that point, they start to become very open to alternative sources of sponsorship.” The official said that opened the door to control by Iran.

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/special_packages/iraq/15623156.htm

[Kagemusha]

1. If they accept Iranian sponsorship the US can blame only itself

Sadr has not been a proponent of Iran. That's Hakim/Badr/SCIRI's thing. Frankly, Maliki's far more beholden to Iran than Sadr is. But the US has a way of driving strange bedfellows together.

[alcibiades_mystery]

2. Cleric Said to Lose Reins of Parts of Iraqi Militia

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/28/world/middleeast/28sadr.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

BAGHDAD, Sept. 27 — The radical Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr has lost control of portions of his Mahdi Army militia that are splintering off into freelance death squads and criminal gangs, a senior coalition intelligence official said Wednesday.

The question of how tightly Mr. Sadr holds the militia, one of the largest armed groups in Iraq, is of critical importance to American and Iraqi officials. Seeking to ease the sectarian violence raging across the country, they have pressed him to join the political process and curb his fighters, who see themselves as defenders of Shiism — and often as agents of vengeance against Sunnis.

---snip---

I'm not sure how much stock to put in this story. Lara Logan had a story on the CBS Evening News the other day in which residents of Sadr City were praising al-Sadr to the skies. Basically, the story demonstrated that Sadr was - effectively - the government in Sadr City, providing not only protection, but alsso social services. It was a very embarrassing story for the US version of things, so I wouldn't be surprised if "coalition" intelligence has been assigned the task of taking him down a peg, at least in the media.

People forget that a large number of US troops - including casey Sheehan - were killed not by Sunni or "al Qaeda" insurgents, but in fights with the Jaes al-Mahdi. The fighting in Sadr City was fierce, as was the fighting in the southern towns, including the now infamous Battle of Najaf, which involved vicious streetfighting in the vicinity of the Iman Ali shrine and now famous battles in the largest Arab cemetery in the world. Now Sadr controls 30+ seats of parliament and operates as a king-maker in Iraqi politcs, and runs a subsection of Baghdad with a population of 1,000,000, not to mention effective control of dozens of Southern towns and cities, including najaf. So tell me again, who won that fight?

[Kagemusha]

3. Plausible deniability is not the sole province of America.

Whatever the truth of the matter, Sadr isn't interested for sucking up the blame for violence he can pin on rogue elements, whether he really controls them or not; or more importantly, whether he's fully using what credibility he has with them or not. He probably isn't; the nature of a militia is not to obey in every small thing if Sadr gives out orders contrary to the desires of the local commanders. Therefore, if he doesn't allow some leeway, he won't be as able to have an order obeyed when it counts, for the big stuff. OTOH, he has no obligation to help a hothead who gets himself in way too much trouble. Er, militarily that is. After all, that becomes another opportunity to use his good services to mediate between what you and I might see as, between the government, and himself.

That's how Sadr gets deals easily, and that's why various government elements get flustered and become determined to break these deals to show that no militia can get its way, even though reality says otherwise.

At any rate, it's not Sheehan's fault he got ordered to fight the Mahdi Army and drew the short straw. The US badly wants Sadr's forces taken off the table and can't understand why the Maliki government won't just do it. Well, that's mainly because Maliki has some awareness of how much it'll suck to try, plus it'll detonate his political coalition...

[RedEarth]

4. It's a total freaking disaster ....