I just don't see how they can continue to try to compare our situation today with the past. IMHO we are in unchartered waters, record account and trade deficits, tax cuts, war in multiple theaters, huge military budgets, longest period of declining jobs, idiot at the helm, etc, etc, etc.
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/05/business/05norris.html?ex=1071291600&en=15de7296b2cbdd8a&ei=5062&partner=GOOGLEThe stock market came alive just over a year ago, and now its virtue as a forecasting tool is being confirmed by a surge in American manufacturing.
That is good news for employment. Chances are that the jobs number reported today will be very good. Next month's seems almost certain to be impressive.
Whether it is also good news for investors is not, however, so clear. Such surges in manufacturing tend to come a little before stock market investors get a nasty shock.
The good news this week was that the Institute for Supply Management reported that its manufacturing index leaped to 62.8 in November. That index is supposed to measure the rate of change in manufacturing from month to month, not the level of activity itself. A reading above 50 means growth; one above 60 indicates a real surge.
Readings above 60, or below 40, are rare.......