STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday December 9.....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Tuesday December 9, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 412
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 000
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 362 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 52 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 261
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 745
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 8, 2003

Dow... 9,965.27 +102.59 (+1.04%)
Nasdaq... 1,948.85 +11.03 (+0.57%)
S&P 500... 1,069.30 +7.80 (+0.73%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.28% +0.06 (+1.49%)
Gold future... 407.50 +0.20 (+0.05%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Jim Puplava

Is This Real?

For gold investors these are good times. For the third consecutive year in a row the price of bullion has risen, and the prices of gold and silver equities is outperforming all of the major averages. The HUI is up 74% this year and the XAU is keeping up with the Nasdaq. It has been almost a decade since gold and silver have delivered returns of this magnitude. For many it is hard to believe that the HUI has advanced relentlessly over the last three years rising 515% since January of 2001. Yes, these are good times but for many in the gold camp the times are too good to be true. Many believe that this is a new bull market but many investors have their doubts. This is demonstrated by the high degree of caution in the gold camp. You can read about the caution in the media (this weeks Barron’s) or you can pick up on the caution in the chat rooms.

<cut>

Today’s Markets

U.S. stock prices rose today led by financial shares amid optimism that corporate profits will accelerate next year. The Dow is only 35 points away from the 10,000 mark with many experts believing that benchmark will be crossed once again this week. Analysts are raising earnings projections for Q4 and for next year. Fund managers expect the stock market to remain buoyant the remainder of the year. Stocks rallied in flag pole fashion led by the futures pit. The Dow advanced 103 points to close at 9,965, a gain of 1% for the day.

Tomorrow the Fed FOMC meets in Washington to decide the future fate of short-term interest rates. There are growing signs of inflation showing up everywhere from higher service prices to rising record commodity prices. The one surprise the markets aren’t prepared for is accelerating inflation. We are currently experiencing accelerating inflation in the form of rising asset prices. That inflation is now starting to spill over into the real economy with prices rising in many sectors. The start of the Fed’s next monetary cycle is expected to begin by the end of the second quarter of next year. Analysts are looking for the language that accompanies Fed meeting for tell tale signs that the Fed is gearing up to prepare the markets for a change in policy and higher rates. The Fed will have to walk a tightrope and make sure it speaks carefully so that another bond market rout doesn’t occur as it did last summer. The Fed is aware that the markets are highly geared; especially the carry trade which keeps long-term rates low. The unwinding of the carry trade is a problem itself. When it unwinds rates will fly upward, not to mention the exiting of dollars by foreign investors.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[OrAnarch]

3. whats that sound?

Oh yes...the dollar dropping. :)


Well, this is great news if you just went out an bought a bunch of gold (Im hoping I wasn't an idiot). Look at it skyrocket...


Not sure what lies ahead though...scary times indeed.

[UpInArms]

12. daily dollar watch

and today is "hold your breath" day or maybe "how long can you tread water" day

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.45 Change -0.30 (-0.34%)

and some other words

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world_business/view/61101/1/.html

The dollar's decline could escalate into a meltdown following the Fed meeting if the market perceives there has been no change on prospects for a rate hike, he warned.

Bear Stearns chief currency strategist Steve Barrow said he would not hesitate to push his euro-dollar forecast to 1.40 if the US currency does not rally in the face of tighter Fed policy in the coming days.

The day's decline was sparked by a report from the Bank for International Settlements, which showed aggressive first-half 2003 repatriation of OPEC funds out of dollars. The report fueled existing concerns over financing the huge US current account gap.

But investor sentiment about the dollar's potential was also a factor.

"There appears little near term support for the dollar," said Robert Sinche at Citibank.

...more...

and

http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/commentary/story/0,4386,224344,00.html

If the dollar's fall is inevitable, some have argued that perhaps Asia should simply stop trying to prevent it. Currency manipulation, after all, only distracts Asia from fixing real problems, like reinventing their economies.

In fact, a somewhat similar situation unfolded in the latter half of the 1980s, and the world managed to survive that episode of financial turmoil. Fear of a weak dollar led the BoJ to sell US Treasuries, resulting in a sharp rise in US interest rates. It was an important factor triggering the 1987 stock market crash.

...more...

and

http://www.thestreet.com/pf/markets/joelrothstein/10130692.html

Now that the euro's risen to about $1.22, Jen thinks other parties might be heard from. "The G3 likely will take action on the U.S. dollar," he said, referring to Japan, Europe and the U.S. Jen expects that the dollar could bleed as low as $1.25 per Euro before rebounding.

There are three things the G3 can do to bring the dollar back up. First, national treasuries could simply buy dollars in the open market. Second, central banks outside the U.S. could cut interest rates and/or the U.S. Federal Reserve could raise them. And third (and by far the least likely), the federal government could put its fiscal house in order and stop printing money to finance an expanding budget deficit.

In the near term, nobody seriously expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to defend the dollar -- or for any other reason. So the responsibility for preventing a full-scale collapse is going to fall to the U.S. Treasury, the Europeans and the Japanese. Jen says that the Japanese will likely accelerate their dollar buying immediately, while the Europeans will start with tough talk followed by cutting interest rates and controls on capital movement.

"In this context, it will be difficult for the dollar to mount any serious near-term rebound."

...more...

and here are some historical charts of the DOW for you

[ozymandius]

2. I hope you have a wonderful day Marketeers!

I have to travel out-of-town today for work. So I will probably check in after the markets close. Thanks to all for doing the numbers and running commentary.

Ozymandius

[Systematic Chaos]

4. Wow, look at the dollar plummet....

This is scary! $1.25 isn't out of the question by the end of this week the way things are going. The 2004 elections aren't anywhere NEAR soon enough....

[Nile]

5. Dow could hit 10,000 today.

Hope it hits it and closes above.

[Systematic Chaos]

6. Why?

That only means that when the bubble finally pops it will be that much more tumultuous.

A lot of stocks are already at least as overvalued as they were at the start of the 2000 decline... and here you want them to climb higher? I dunno. To each their own I guess. :shrug:

[Nile]

7. because...

my 401K is finally gaining back some of its previous value.

[Systematic Chaos]

11. See post #10 below.

That about covers it.

[Sir_Shrek]

23. If you've dollar-cost averaged though all this...

...you're still ahead of the game. It doesn't matter where it goes for me today, I'm up obscene amounts in my retirement account already (4 mutual funds total, with traditional allocation models: 2 stock, one bond, one precious metals). Buy and hold, baby....

[JNelson6563]

8. Good Morning Marketeers!!

Whoooo-hooo!!!!! Gore endorsed Dean and Janklow found guilty!! What a morning already!!

I see the Pound is worth over $1.72! Holy cow!! Futures up slightly but all await the Greenman. $10 says he has words of warning for all.

And gold! Zowie!! I've known for ages that was the way to go!! Flight to quality. I know that the top 1% ownes 2.9 trillion of the 3.5 trillion out there in stocks and bonds and with the volume what it's been lately, this tells me it's the 401ks etc propping things up. The real money is looking elsewhere. Keep in mind the massive insider selling of late. The record debt levels of the Amer. consumer. We are also reaching very high levels of stock bought on margin.

The higher we go the harder the fall. Hope all are taking their positions on this field of battle.

Julie--doubling the guard on the outer wall ;-)

[Dogmudgeon]

9. I have a real dumb question

Why do the values of stocks continue to rise when the value of the Dollar is falling off so sharply?

Don't any of these companies do business with other countries?

Are there any historic parallels for this?

OK, that was three questions, but they're still real dumb. I'm afraid I lack the intelligence, insight, and financial acumen that made the Bush family, the Walton family, and Dick Cheney so rich.

--bkl

[JNelson6563]

10. They seem to be alomost parallel worlds

One would think the majority would realize that even though your stock is worth more $$ those dollars are worth less every day.

Such thinking is not welcome in the happy-go-lucky world of profiteers. Cracks me up to see folks "My stocks have increased in value 35% this year!" or whatever. haha Yes but how much has the currency they are traded on dropped? Fools.

Whatever.

Julie

[Dogmudgeon]

66. "My" Stock?

I'm one of those hard-core unemployed lazy bastards (translation: computer programmer) and the net value of my extensive portfolio is $0. Actually, I have no extensive portfolio.

I can't say I'm looking forward to the "day of reconciliation" that so many people here seem to hope for. It's no fun being homeless, especially with a 67-year-old mother and a 90-year-old grandmother, both of whom are already panicked over the roller-coaster ride of the stock market and the lies and larceny coming from the White House.

--bkl

[Maeve]

13. The only thing that matters today is the contents of Greenspan's naval

Will he pull a jewel out of it or just some lint? Whatever comes out, the talking heads will search it with the same gravity that the ancients gave to chicken entrails....

Sorry, but I'm sick of "sending a message" and "hints of hikes" especially when what is said so often is in contrast to what is done (Snow and "strong dollar policy" for example)

[JNelson6563]

14. Amen Sister Maeve

All Greenamn all the time. CNBC is very busy telling us how much everybody loves Greenman and the boy king. <gag>

Julie

[UpInArms]

15. correct me if my memory is failing me

(fat chance of that) - wasn't the credit for the economy under Clinton given to the "miracle" of Greenpants?

So where are Mr. GreenJeans' miracles being hidden now?

[JNelson6563]

17. I don't know

He sure as hell didn't give Clinton the historically low interest rates he has given the boy king. Also if Greenman is going to raise rates it'll be like January so that nobody can say it was done for political purposes.

As if he hasn't done everything in his power for the usurper already!!! haha Freepers are such idiots.

Julie

[Sir_Shrek]

36. They're saying...

June 04 or maybe as late as January 05 are looking like the most likely times rates will be raised. ATL Journal Constitution

[Maeve]

20. Here's an example of the stories we're getting

The message is "no action expected, but how will they word it?" Sigh...while that may be a proper economic srtategy, it's getting rather wearing...
Markets await FOMC magic act
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Step right up, ladies and gentlemen. It's time for the next act of the greatest escape-artist show since the days of the legendary Harry Houdini.
Remember that, in August, the Federal Open Market Committee put on a straitjacket, wrapped itself in iron chains and said it was committed to holding interest rates at the low 1.00 percent level "for a considerable period."
Since then, the financial markets have been on edge waiting to see if the FOMC meant what it said.
The FOMC meets on Tuesday, with an announcement expected at about 2:15 p.m. The meeting is the highlight of a rather sparse week for economic news. Only the November retail sales report on Thursday holds a candle to the Fed confab.
<more>

[cthrumatrix]

16. notice the fall of the dollar, rise of gold and commodities even

when the market has been rising...you would expect gold to go up during the extreme market decline...but the rise of gold is telling the market and the world much more...

[JNelson6563]

18. yes, it is saying

Time for a flight to quality.

Why trust in the $$ when they just keep printin' 'em? That only works so long. Pretty soon everyone realizes it's pretend. I've said it before, this situation a couple of centuries ago would have those of mean sewing their jewels into their clothes.

Julie

[Sir_Shrek]

34. Hehehehe

...although I don't think fiat currency was as big back then as it is now ;)

[UpInArms]

19. flipping the coin

so that I am not accused on only posting "negative" news :D

http://www.canada.com/national/nationalpost/news/story.html?id=ea0ca983-8975-4370-bd48-6b54363ff6c6

Traders brushed aside concerns about the weak U.S. dollar, which reflects worries about the American fiscal and current account deficits.

Said John Caldwell, equity strategist for McDonald Financial Group in New York: "The strength in the economy is looking real and sustainable at least through next year."

I do have to say that the "at least through next year" part raises my hackles - do you think there's something going on to prop up the puppet?

[cthrumatrix]

21. a must listen to the tale of the falling dollar & gold rising

http://www.jonesheward.com/commentary.cfm

an institutional money manager's opinion on why the dollar keeps falling....very interesting


let me know your thoughts...it's a good 20+ minutes

[smirkymonkey]

22. My first market post here..

What is the growth in the stock market based on? I have a sense that it isn't fundamentally sound. So what's up?

[Maeve]

24. The growth seems to be based on the growth

Speculation, in other words. Try this as a starting point....

The Dow has actually gone nowhere this year
Remember the Dow is really not doing much when priced in stronger currencies. This upward move is mostly the Dow re-adjusting to the inflated dollar. So, in effect, it is really static and gives one the illusion that it is rising to new highs. If you really price it in a strong currency, all these fake illusions are immediately shattered. You actually find that the Dow is crashing silently, while giving the impression that it's going up. Currency collapses are insidious and dangerous and very hard to follow. That’s why the masses are going to be handed their heads on a platter one day.
~~~~~~~~~~~
Welcome to the Pessimists'Club! :D

[Sir_Shrek]

26. Who is "Sol"? n/t

....

[Maeve]

27. From the bottom of the page

Contact Information

Sol
Tactical Investor
38-11 Ditmars Blvd.
Astoria, NY, 11105
Email Website: www.tacticalinvestor.com

[Sir_Shrek]

29. Hmmm....

..that's an...interesting....website.

[Maeve]

30. We like to gather a wide range of ideas

We leave the gauging of the advice to the reader (at least you WILL find contrarian viewpoints here!)

[Sir_Shrek]

33. Oh yeah....

I'm all for that....I just get a little skeptical when it's a guy whose identity is not necessarily apparent. Paul Krugman is one thing, "Sol" is another.

His compariosn seems a little apples to oranges: pricing the Dow in Rands versus dollars. It's going to require a little research on my part, but there's just something that doesn't jibe with the whole thing either...

[smirkymonkey]

40. Thanks - that was kind of what I was

thinking, but don't know enough about it to be sure. I appreciate the explaination! :)

[smirkymonkey]

41. Do you think the market will quietly correct

or crash and burn?? For some reason - just a instinct - I have a feeling that a financial disaster could occur soon.

All these "positive" indicators of economic growth don't seem to jibe with my observations - I live in Manhattan, and things just seem to get worse - unemployment, people over their heads w/ debt, lower standards of living, stores closing and other stores sparsely populated (especially this time of the year), etc. etc.

Do you think something unprecedented could occur in our economy?

[Maeve]

42. Personally, I think something unprecedented has already occured

I do believe there is a fair (or unfair, if you take my meaning) amount of manipulation going on behind the scenes--not all of it bad for the economy. Although it is common to speak of the "small investor", most folks with money in the market are part of a larger grouping; they have the money in "funds", not specific stocks they control. But the managers of these funds don't want to allow a crash--so there is a better-than-chance probability (IMHO) that we won't see a 1929-style event.

However, should a major terrorist attack happen in the US, or some other major geopolitical shock hit--it's Katie bar the door and heaven help us all.

[smirkymonkey]

43. Thanks!

n/t

[Sir_Shrek]

47. To add to that...

I think that, in a way, it's better that more and more money is left to professional fund managers than individual investors. I don't mind day traders so much, but I think it's natural (and justified) to have much more confidence in people who not only have access but the ability to interpret the incredibly huge amount of economic reports that come out. They can analyze company balance sheets and accounting figures, and understand the nuances of each. In that sense, I think they're less likely to react emotionally to economic news.

[Sir_Shrek]

35. A number of things....

Expectation of future profits, current profits, so-called "hot stocks"...everyone plays it differently, depending on what your goals and aims are.

[Maeve]

25. Seven minutes in and

Dow 9,995.42 +30.15 (+0.30%)
Nasdaq 1,955.36 +6.51 (+0.33%)
S&P 500 1,071.10 +1.80 (+0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.252% -0.026

[Maeve]

28. Ooooo! 10K!! No...wait...now it's

Dow 9,986.90 +21.63 (+0.22%)
Nasdaq 1,950.30 +1.45 (+0.07%)
S&P 500 1,070.39 +1.09 (+0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.248% -0.030

[UpInArms]

31. we must have blinked

and missed the "news"!

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/default.asp?siteid=mktw

BULLETIN>>
DOW TOPS 10,000 FOR FIRST TIME SINCE MAY 2002

I didn't see it and there were no words with the "bulletin" - just the banner headline!

Sheesh!

These cheerleaders make me :puke:

[Maeve]

32. 9:57 and we're seeing some red

Dow 9,989.27 +24.00 (+0.24%)
Nasdaq 1,947.12 -1.73 (-0.09%)
S&P 500 1,069.75 +0.46 (+0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.245% -0.033

[Maeve]

37. 10:13 and we have some bounce

Right about on schedule, too.

Dow 9,996.08 +30.81 (+0.31%)
Nasdaq 1,949.35 +0.50 (+0.03%)
S&P 500 1,070.14 +0.84 (+0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.245% -0.033

[Maeve]

38. 10:21--what goes up...

Dow 9,977.34 +12.07 (+0.12%)
Nasdaq 1,942.29 -6.56 (-0.34%)
S&P 500 1,068.04 -1.26 (-0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.244% -0.034

[JNelson6563]

39. I missed the opening bell excitment

and barely caught Gore's brief endorsement of Dean before I fled out the door, wet hair and all to take young Miss to check up at Doc.

At 10:32 I smell jitters:

Dow 9,976.38 +11.11 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq 1,942.80 -6.05 (-0.31%)
S&P 500 1,068.33 -0.97 (-0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 4.250% -0.028

Someone leak Greenman's comments? Did he say "therefore" instead of "whereas"???? <snarf>

Julie

[Maeve]

44. Dunno--maybe just saw all the layoff announcements

Seem to be a few in LBN this a.m....

Dow 9,970.37 +5.10 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq 1,936.46 -12.39 (-0.64%)
S&P 500 1,066.71 -2.58 (-0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 4.263% -0.015

[UpInArms]

45. there appears to have been some

ECB and BoJ intervention this AM

dollar "recovering" at

Last trade 88.85 Change +0.10 (+0.11%)

perhaps trying to get ahead of the "strong" dollar policies of the Snow-job and the voodoo words of Mr. GreenJeans.

[JNelson6563]

46. but lay-offs are happy news for investors!

Bigger profits!

The Nasdaq seems to be the least happy thus far. The DOW heading south and I see one stinkin' basis pt off the 10yr yield. So where goeth the filthy lucre?

Dow 9,969.27 +4.00 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq 1,932.62 -16.23 (-0.83%)
S&P 500 1,065.88 -3.42 (-0.32%)
10-Yr Bond 4.262% -0.016

Gold? Other commodities? Foriegn currency? The mattress?

Julie

[Maeve]

48. 12:30 doldrums

Dow 9,968.45 +3.18 (+0.03%)
Nasdaq 1,934.37 -14.48 (-0.74%)
S&P 500 1,066.33 -2.96 (-0.28%)
10-Yr Bond 4.247% -0.031

[Robbien]

49. The manufacturing numbers are out

and they do not look good. The index was at 28 in October and dropped to 6 in November. But don't let actual numbers fool you; the economy is booming; everyone says so!

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/031208/economy_fed_kansascity_1.html

The report shows worsening numbers in production, shipments and in new orders. I notice this is not getting much play in the news.

[UpInArms]

51. here's the poop

Following are the survey results:
MANUFACTURING SURVEY Nov Oct Nov03/02 Expect 6 mos.
Production 6 28 31 45
Shipments -1 21 29 50
New Orders 14 29 41 45
Backlog Orders 8 5 21 12
Number of employees 8 4 0 24
Average workweek 8 5 18 8
Finished product prices -2 -5 4 14
Raw product prices 27 17 40 40
Capital expenditures N/A N/A 14 19
Inventory-materials 4 5 -8 -1
Inventory-finished goods 2 1 -4 3
N/A - not available

looks like orders are down, workweeks are longer, wholesale prices are increasing (raw products) and finished product inventories are up - not good

[54anickel]

53. And NO capital expenditures! Not good either

So if companies are not willing to invest in their own infastructure, that means the economy is still pretty reliant on consumer spending. Sad thing is consumers are tapped out.

[Sir_Shrek]

60. Does each Fed have one of these?

Or are these numbers just for the KC Fed? It says that the numbers only represent a handful of states?

[Sir_Shrek]

62. KC Fed Report blather

http://biz.yahoo.com/opt/031208/90be5b3fe9c202fcfc92c89a2ce3a346_1.html

Economic news has been light on Monday, but this doesn't mean the economy isn't still on the minds of traders. In fact, with the FOMC meeting set for Tuesday, the economy continues to be the focus of traders. Though this week doesn't have as many key reports on tap, there still are plenty of releases for traders to digest. However, Monday was a light session, with just the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey released.
::::snip::::::
There have been two components of the economy that have struggled the most during the recession and subsequent recovery: manufacturing and jobs. While the services sector showed sharp improvement earlier this year, it is only recently that manufacturing has strong signs of progress. Today, a manufacturing survey from the Fed Tenth District was positive, though down from October's survey.

November's survey came out at 6, down from 28 in October. Though this still is in expansion territory, economists note that November is often a sub par month and this survey is not seasonally adjusted. Within the report, economists were glad to see improvement in the employment component. In fact, the employment index came in at zero, which is the first time since 2000 that the year over year figure wasn't negative. The volume of new orders fell to 14 from 29, but remains positive and the average employee workweek rose from 5 to 8. The number of employees rose to 8 from 4 and has been positive for five consecutive months. This tells us that overall, more hiring is being done than firing, though there still is a lot of room for improvement. Economists were also pleased to see that the outlook six months hence is still rather strong for both orders and employment.

For full report, see link.

[On the Road]

50. Look at This Sentiment Chart!

Sentiment is amazingly high and steady. Something has to give.

I'm still in the 20% minority. This market looks like a rounded top just reaching the apex. Been short since Septemeber. Down 6-7% but holding.

[Maeve]

52. Can you explain what we're seeing a bit?

I do know that when everyone says "buy!" you should look to your wallet, but would you please elaborate on the chart?

[mrsteve]

54. I can't see the chart!

Sorry guys - either my firewall at work is blocking the picture or there are some kind of permissions to view the charts.

Can I impose on anyone to do a verbal description, or move the graphic to a different server? It sounds awfully juicy...

(on edit - typo)

[UpInArms]

58. I, too, cannot see the chart

all I "see" is a little box that says "image" within it

so sad - blind in one eye and cannot see from the other :(

I shall play myself a tune

:nopity:

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

55. Just a thankyou to ozymandius and all the regular posters

This is one thread I check everyday! :toast:

[JNelson6563]

59. thanks nsma

Whenever I see our screen name I wonder when I will reach that point. I have often thought I'd reached it and then something shocks me. ;-)

Julie

[mrsteve]

56. 1:10 - after a long slow drop from morning highs, a bit of sideways motion

...with the Nasdaq and S&P below waterline.

Dow 9,981.42 +16.15 (+0.16%)
Nasdaq 1,937.13 -11.72 (-0.60%)
S&P 500 1,067.48 -1.82 (-0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.244% -0.034

[mrsteve]

57. And the Yahoo blather

Yahoo Finance Updates:
"1:00PM: Divergent trade persists, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 drifting in negative territory and the Dow holding on to its placement in the green... In the Dow, General Motors (GM 48.61 +1.47) and International Paper (IP 40.74 +0.51) are contributing 11 and 4.5 index points, respectively, to the composite and are largely accountable for the Dow's favorable stance after being upgraded this morning...
Specifically, Goldman Sachs upgraded GM to Outperform from In-Line saying there is significant upside to FY04 earnings expectations (please see Briefing.com's Upgrade/Downgrade Briefing for more perspective)... Separately, IP's rating was raised to Equal-Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley citing firm's belief that stocks will move higher as demand and prices begin to strengthen in coming months... Today's volume is roughly in-line with last week's totals, but on the lighter side of things on the Nasdaq..."

[JNelson6563]

61. Howdy Steve---

Good to see ya checkin' in. Interesting day, no? Always is when the Greenman is going to speak.

Seems as we get closer to the witching hour (2:20 I believe) the more jittery the Street gets.

1:29 and here's where we are:


Dow 9,972.45 +7.18 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq 1,933.47 -15.38 (-0.79%)
S&P 500 1,066.48 -2.82 (-0.26%)
10-Yr Bond 4.236% -0.042

Some inflow to Treasuries, nothing spectacular. Of course why buy Treasury notes from a treasury whose dollar is sinking? They way they keep auctioning huge blocks too, well frankly that worries me. What will we do when nobody wants 'em anymore?

Julie

[mrsteve]

63. Howdy back at ya, Julie

You can almost hear the Street holding it's breath right now, huh?

That, and you can almost smell the fear too.

2:30 PM could be interesting. God knows, the markets want the interest rates kept at the same low rate, but Geez, the dollar is down 20% against the Euro in the last six months!

I find interesting the theory bouncing aroud in the previous comments that the market is actually level for the year or even down a notch, if you rate the stock prices against some of the other world currencies. Even if the source of the article with the idea is from a dubious source.

(on edit - clarification - I'm hitting the Post button too quickly today!)

[Sir_Shrek]

67. The more I read...

...the more I'm beginning to think that that theory is bunk. Weakening dollars don't encourage stock market gains, and I can't find a whole lot that suggests that there is any merit to adjusting stock prices for foreign currencies. Cheap dollars only encourage further investment in non-dollar denominated securities (think of discussions here regarding Treasuries), not additional investment in dollar denominated securities to "make up for the loss".....anyone have any other thoughts?

[Code_Name_D]

75. Neo-cons are conviced that the market is invicabule.

We keep seeing this over and over down in the economics room. "The US economey is too BIG to contract." Heck, they are conviced that there is no longer such a thing as a bare market. Let me repeat that, "the bares are extinct."

So, with this "understanding" when things go down, they are inebitably going to pop back up at some point. The trick is to "find the floor." And Weeeeeeeeee, ride it all the way to new highes.

So I suspect they thing the doller exchange works in the same way. As the dollar drops, and we all know (caufh) that its going to shoot up, than this makes for new buying opertunityes.

Of course, they are just completly and flat out, 100% wrong. Unforutanly, it will take a total colasp for them to get a clue as to how wrong they are.

[mrsteve]

64. 2:00 - countdown to the FOMC

And the sideways lull continues until Greenspan reads the entrails to divine the future at 2:30.

Dow 9,974.59 +9.32 (+0.09%)
Nasdaq 1,932.23 -16.62 (-0.85%)
S&P 500 1,066.45 -2.85 (-0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 4.242% -0.036

[Code_Name_D]

65. Greanspan dose not read intrailes!

He feels for lumps on sacs of momney.

[Shrek]

68. Selling on the news?

Dow dropped like an anvil right after the FOMC announcement. Probably some profit-taking after yesterday's vapor rally.

[54anickel]

70. Didn't like that "for a considerable period" clause, hey?

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2003/20031209/

[htuttle]

69. Wow! look at the dollar graphs

Vertical line, straight down. 106 yen or lower today, I'd bet.

on edit: weird...moments later, it evens out? Steep decline gone? How do you do that with a graph?

[CaptainClark23]

71. Rates to remain at 1%

Release Date: December 9, 2003



For immediate release

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1 percent.

The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity. The evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period confirms that output is expanding briskly, and the labor market appears to be improving modestly. Increases in core consumer prices are muted and expected to remain low.

The Committee perceives that the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal. The probability of an unwelcome fall in inflation has diminished in recent months and now appears almost equal to that of a rise in inflation. However, with inflation quite low and resource use slack, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; J. Alfred Broaddus, Jr.; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; and Robert T. Parry.


http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2003/20031209/

[JNelson6563]

72. Markets pretty unhappy

2:45

Dow 9,944.23 -21.04 (-0.21%)
Nasdaq 1,919.39 -29.46 (-1.51%)
S&P 500 1,063.14 -6.16 (-0.58%)
10-Yr Bond 4.283% +0.005

And now $$ flees Treasuries too. Hmmm.

Julie

[Capn Sunshine]

73. December in the hedge world

Firstly, let's face it , no one is going to take any controversial high delta positions this time of year and the erosion of the Banks bond heavy portfolios NAV is not going to sway anyone form this opinion; but everybody and his brother has a short dollar/long euro collar on that makes everything balance out nicely for the end of FY statements. In other words, your performance was cast in concrete Nov 29 and nothing will change it in December.

So this is traditionallyt a time of year when bankers cast about for the lay of the land so as to properly protect assets against attack.

Now, I know there's a script, YOU now there's a script but sometimes the actors in this little Kabuki Theater we watch every day try out some improv on otherwise bored audiences.

M-3 is falling. Uh oh... drops in M3 typical accompany
nasty setbacks in the stock market and the economy...this is hardly consistent with the script of "re-elect Bush".

I've been asking around, including Harvard Business School,and no one knows exactly why the money supply would be contracting. Maybe it is a function of fewer private inflows from abroad. Except for the central banks, investors are shunning dollar assets. That seems to be the guess. But contracting ahead of an election year? :wtf:

How can ordinary people protect themselves from a decline in the dollar? Well... they probably don't see why they should. Ordinary people in America have no assets. They have an overpriced house... not much more. And even that they have mortgaged.

If they had financial assets, they should transfer them into euros or gold. But without financial assets, there is little they can do.

However, since they tend to owe money rather than be owed it, they will benefit from the falling dollar. In real terms, their debt loads decline. That is true of the whole nation. America is deeply in debt to foreigners. But the debt is denominated in dollars. Every 10% decline in the dollar is 10% less Americans have to pay.

This dear friends I submit to you, is the BFEE plan, a perverse form of credit creation ( hey! we just found 11.6% room!); a game of debt hot potato with weakening currency they have mastered in country after country.

[JNelson6563]

74. I think we will see a continuing

of fewer private inflows from abroad.

There seems to be so much debt sold off regularly it would seem likely to me that it would just decrease in value.

Except for the central banks, investors are shunning dollar assets. That seems to be the guess. But contracting ahead of an election year? :wtf:

haha Cap'n, this is the fun part. This is where the wealthy will leave their own high and dry. The boy king is history if he threatens any of their fortune they so jealously guard.

2:58 and we see $$ continue a steady departure from Treasuries:

Dow 9,944.60 -20.67 (-0.21%)
Nasdaq 1,921.07 -27.78 (-1.43%)
S&P 500 1,062.80 -6.50 (-0.61%)
10-Yr Bond 4.347% +0.069

I don't think December will see the spending the cheerleaders have predicted either. If the big money holds back until the new year I don't even want to think about what their conclusions may lead to if December continues down the path it's now on.

Good to see ya stoppin' in dear.

Julie

[wetbandit2003]

77. UHH Question...

I have one question????

If the stock market is near the 10000 mark, Then why is everyone whining about a 22pt drop in the dow after the FMOC stayed the rates at 1.0% AND stated that Deflation is not very likely...... What is wrong with a little consolidation of a few stocks in a portfolio? Im sure if you run the numbers of stock prices, the market rate of return on stocks, Beta on stocks and the risk free rate of return,,,you will find that the stock prices are pretty much near the SML(security market line)

[JNelson6563]

80. By all means Buy!!

Buy bold! Buy big!!

If the DOW being near 10,000 is enough for you to see it as all good don't let us spoil your party. We're just a bunch of cynics. ;-)

Julie

[Maeve]

76. 3:26--off the tightrope

Sorry--the image of that cartoon as I type this is too compelling!

Dow 9,921.42 -43.85 (-0.44%)
Nasdaq 1,912.42 -36.43 (-1.87%)
S&P 500 1,060.07 -9.23 (-0.86%)
10-Yr Bond 4.352% +0.074

[JNelson6563]

79. 10 minutes later, holding steady

Dow 9,922.75 -42.52 (-0.43%)
Nasdaq 1,909.64 -39.21 (-2.01%)
S&P 500 1,059.75 -9.55 (-0.89%)
10-Yr Bond 4.352% +0.074

Bruising the 10 yr. Ouch.

Julie

[Maeve]

81. Not a happy finale

Dow 9,922.97 -42.30 (-0.42%)
Nasdaq 1,908.32 -40.53 (-2.08%)
S&P 500 1,060.08 -9.22 (-0.86%)
10-Yr Bond 4.352% +0.074

But I'm sure someone will be crowing "Buying opportunity!" by tomorrow morning.

[JNelson6563]

82. Oh you bet! Talking points out by 5 am.

We'll see how things go overseas overnight.

Catch all you marketeers in the AM. :hi:

Julie

[54anickel]

78. Think today may be a good day to review this previous article

from November 18th

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/archive/2003/1118.html

Trade and budget deficits in the U.S. are now at levels that would normally trigger a currency crisis in any other country. The dollar is falling, but its fall isn’t critical at this point. The record trade and budget deficits are producing a surfeit of dollars around the globe. With supply greater than demand for dollars, the price of the dollar is sinking. For the first time in decades, the Fed faces a credibility crisis: how to finance America’s growing twin deficits and maintain the value of the dollar. It has become a game of confidence with the financial markets. How do you continue to run gargantuan deficits and convince foreigners to continuously lend you money? No one wants to own a currency that is headed for a fall. With nothing backing it, owning the dollar has become a confidence game.

The only thing that holds the dollar up is the strength of the U.S. military and faith in the U.S. economy. Currently there is a lot banking on the U.S. economic recovery. It is faith in that recovery that is keeping the dollar from collapsing. Everything rests on the strength of the U.S. economy and its financial markets. If problems surface in either area, the confidence game is over and the dollar is toast. The Fed now has its hands full with holes in the dike everywhere it looks.

snip>

...If gold prices continue to rise and move beyond $400 and $500 an ounce, it will become a signal that the Fed is losing its grip over the financial markets and ultimately the confidence game.

End Game Approaching

The Fed’s job is to keep investors in paper, in particular the dollar. It must keep investors corralled so that only paper options are considered. What the Fed does not want to see happen is the price of gold and silver soar. When precious metals start flying, as they are doing now, it is telegraphing in advance that the confidence game is coming down to its end game. Greenspan must continue at all costs keeping investors corralled and preventing them from escaping and getting out of paper. Greenspan knows better than anyone else of the danger of a collapse of confidence in paper.

snip>
much more in the article.