New poll shows Bush with heavy lead over Dean in NH

[Epoch]

from www.politicsnh.com I believe this is still late breaking...

A poll by the American Research Group shows President Bush with 57 percent over Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean's 30 percent of voters in New Hampshire.

Bush leads 51 percent over 34 percent over an unnamed Democrat.

(12/11/03)


Hmm..it's early yet, but I still think NH is ripe for the taking for any dem.

Yaron

[Khephra]

1. Bush is on the way down and Dean is on the way up

and there's a year until the election. I'm not worried in the slightest. Things will change once the primaries are over too. Whoever ends up winning will get a big jump as more people will be paying attention to the race after it gets to be Bush vs (fill-in-the-blank).

[JailBush]

2. You've got to be joking!

I thought New Hampshire was known for its intelligent, independent-minded and politcally savvy residents? Isn't it the "Live Free or Die" state, or something like that? I thought I read about a bunch of Libertarians moving to New Hampshire after it beat out all the other states in some sort of political contest.

I can see Bush leading in a state ruled by morons (e.g. Texas) or even in corporate Seattle, but New Hampshire?

[JaySherman]

4. This poll is SO bogus

No info whatsoever on the source of the poll or how it was conducted.

Also the publisher of this politicsNH rag, PubliusGroup, is a mini think-tank that's dedicated to pushing a GOP lite agenda on a local level. Read about it straight from the horses' mouth:

http://www.politicspa.com/publiusinfobrief.htm

On edit: I stand corrected on the poll source. See Dover's post below.

[bushisanidiot]

30. Their Repuke Advertising At the Top Of The Page Says It All About the poll

results.

from http://www.politicspa.com

"Sue Helm - Republican" political advertisement
"Don't Vote For A Tax Hike" political advertisement

and this:

"The Alternative To Hillary Clinton's 'Living History'" - advertisement for a book by 'Jim Ryan'. I clicked on the link and read about the book. It is clearly Mr. Ryan's fantasy about how he'd like to see Senator Clinton murdered. Here's what the site said:

Synopsis

Imagine the horror: Susan Billingsly, ex-First Lady and former New Jersey Senator, is discovered in a Fort Lauderdale pet store with an axe buried in the back of her head. Her former husband, Dave Billingsly—now a popular talk show host—is one of many suspects in a tangled conspiracy of Justice Department wags, Mafia thugs, rogue agents and a whimsical Public Defender named Jim O’Hara.

[SquireJons]

12. Not me

I thought New Hampshire was the breeding ground for the likes of Pat Buchanan. They're awfly conservative there. Now Vermont is another issue...

[loudnclear]

16. Having money doesn't mean you are NOT a moron.

It just means you are rich.

[cthrumatrix]

3. Well....it looks like it "lie early and lie often"....more BS

[alcuno]

5. I keep hearing this, "And everyone in NH knows who Dean is

because he was the governor of a neighboring state." Oh really? I live about 50 miles from Wisconsin and 60 miles from Indiana and have no idea who those governors are much less anything about their policy positions.

Not everyone in this country is glued to their television set watching campaign ads. Let's ask them during the actual year of the election.

[ozone_man]

13. Good point. It's early still.

Mostly just politically active folks are aware of the Democratic candidates at this point, and the media doesn't help much. The debates are not shown on prime time TV, but, would the average person want to miss his/her favorite sports or sitcom show to watch a debate?

NH is sort of the companion state for Vermont, sort of upside down, wouldn't you say? Anyway, they fit together into a pretty nice rectangle separated by the Connecticut River. We both have the same cold winters. Normally, most folks from either state would not be that aware of each other's governors, senators, etc., but Dean was governor for 11 years, so he has some name recognition and respect.

After the primaries we will see how Bush fairs in a one on one contest, and I bet NH will go Dean. Remember it went Bush in 2000. NH is still the best early gage.

[joeunderdog]

37. NH is a southern conservative state who wandered north.

They are very conservative in every way and are proudly Anti-Vermont. The voters in those states snicker at each other's politics and ignorance about how life should be. Complete opposites. I'm from MA and I'm not surprised Dean MAY not be well received in NH.

But I'd like to stress this. The media lied about the war to help the Shrub, they lied about the economy to help the Chimp, and THEY WILL LIE ABOUT THE POLLS to try to help the Incumbent Asshole. It's all part of the PR blitz when you have the media on the payroll.

[Dover]

6. Why do people trust polls? The sacred cow of infallibility?

I don't know anything about this company or their data collection, but American Research Group was bought out by Global Knowledge. Here's some info on them:

Ownership
Global Knowledge, a privately held company based in Cary, NC, is owned by New York-based investment firm Welsh, Carson, Anderson and Stowe.

Market Share
According to International Data Corporation (IDC), Global Knowledge is the seventh largest provider of IT education solutions worldwide¹. In addition, Global Knowledge is the:

#1 provider of networking training programs worldwide for combined vendor-authorized and proprietary programs
#1 training provider worldwide for Cisco certification programs
#1 training provider worldwide for Nortel certification programs
#1 training provider worldwide for Enterasys certification programs
Employees
Global Knowledge employs more than 1300 people worldwide.

Products and Services



Individuals and organizations worldwide learn to master technology through Global Knowledge's integrated, blended solutions comprised of:

Open Enrollment and Product Development: offering more than 700 courses including manufacturer certifications for Cisco, Microsoft, Nortel and Red Hat as well as certification courses for internetworking, telecommunications, and job skill certifications. Through its e-Learning and Blended Learning Solutions, the company empowers customers with choice, allowing them to determine when, where, and how corporations and individuals want their IT training programs designed and delivered.

Enterprise Services: developing custom integrated solutions to manage proficiencies for an information technology workforce. Projects include large-scale rollouts; integration of personnel following mergers and acquisitions, customized accelerated certification training programs, and competence assessment.

Through its Outsourcing Solutions the company manages education programs for the world's largest corporations ranging from internal IT training to complete outsourcing of an enterprise's proprietary product training. Global Knowledge's worldwide presence, e-Learning capabilities, and content development expertise allow customers to release resources for other initiatives and concentrate on their core competencies, providing them with instant scalability, time-to-market criticality, and greater market penetration.

Knowledge Products: developing enterprise training solutions designed for the creation, deployment and management of highly customized enterprise applications. OnDemand Personal Navigator™ provides in-application training and performance support to users of enterprise applications such as PeopleSoft, Siebel Systems, and SAP, as well as Microsoft and Lotus. Knowledge Pathways™ is a dynamic online learning platform for easy course development, simplified training management and faster user proficiency. These innovative, yet proven, technologies provide customers faster and more effective time to deployment, time to competency and time to ROI on their enterprise-wide applications.


Strategic Alliances and Clients



Global Knowledge continues to foster strategic partnerships and client relationships with some of the most dominant and pervasive players in the information technology industry today, including:

AT&T Microsoft Corporation
British Telecom ADP
Cisco Systems, Inc. Nortel Networks Ltd.
HP/Compaq NTT Data
CompTIA: A+, Inet+, Network+ Oracle Corporation
Deutsche Telekom Pricewaterhouse Coopers
Enterasys Networks, Inc. Sprint
Ericsson SBC
Korea Telecom

[JaySherman]

7. Where did you find that info?

I clicked around and was unable to find any link to the story.

[Dover]

9. These two sites

http://www.arg.com/index2.html

http://www.welshcarson.com/index.html

[UpInArms]

40. I got a call from

The American Research Group about a year ago - I answer the telephone and they identified themselves (it was woman calling) and asked if I would be interested in answering a political survey.

I replied that I would and then she proceeded to ask if she could speak to the "man" of the house -

I took the telephone to my husband and told him that they wanted him to answer a political poll and that was because they wanted to skew their data to reflect male versus female perspectives and probably because we live in a very conservative area and the men are extremely predictable in their responses around here -

well, end of story is that I made certain that this woman could hear everything that I said and when my husband took the telephone, there was no one on the line anymore.

'nuff said.

[sendero]

41. Classic!

:)

[Capn Sunshine]

8. This "Poll " is from a for for-hire marketing firm

from their own website:

http://americasresearchgroup.com/predatory_marketing_book.html
White Papers

Predatory Marketing
C. Britt Beemer with Robert L. Shook

Britt Beemer understands, probably better than anyone else in America today, how consumers think, why they think that way, and what obstacles must be overcome to generate a sale. Clients who follow Beemer's research-based recommendations grow several times greater than their competitors, earning him a reputation as one of America's leading business strategists.

"Predatory Marketing" teaches businesses

1.) How to avoid making the wrong decisions.

2.) How to develop a strategy that works from the beginning.

3.) How to make your customer notice your company.

Most extraordinary is Beemer's central message that the fastest way to increase market share is to attack competitors at their strong points, not their weak ones. In short, if you want to win market share, you have to convince consumers that the major things your competitors do well you can do better.

Hmmmm, now who would want to attack Dean at his strong point?

[Dover]

11. LOL! Here's an example of their important market analysis...

speaking of predators.....

(from your link's News section)

Rush Limbaugh Survey

In his latest survey of 1,000 consumers, Britt Beemer of America's Research Group asked several questions about Rush Limbaugh, finding for the most part, that Rush's listeners will remain loyal.

[cigarstore]

10. Howard Brush Dean will not be the nominee

Mark my words

[Mr_Bleedingheart]

17. I thnk he will

he has momentum, he will win

[Duncan Grant]

23. Miss Cleo? Is that you?

My psychic friends network says otherwise. :eyes:

[Cooley Hurd]

38. Even though you're not fond of responding to those who disagree...

...with you, might I ask... What does "Brush" mean?

On edit... whoops! He can't respond - he's tombstoned. It's about time...

[Donna Zen]

14. New Hampshire loves repubs

Now let's see...they have a repub gov. and two repub senators. That means in statewide elections, the repubs win. It is more evenly split in Maine, however, we have our first Dem. governor in about 18 years and two repub. senators. I'm afraid that the second district will lose a one term Dem. congressman in 2004.

While Portland is liberal, and parts of the coast, the vast wilderness is peopled by repubs and repub Christians, and repub retired military.

Maine splits its electoral vote, so don't count on two of them. They may not love junior as they once did, but they would need a very good reason to cross the road.

[deutsey]

15. Polls showed Bush getting majority of popular vote, too

We know how that wound up.

[Logansquare]

18. How is everyone else doing acc. to ARG?

Let's see:
http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/

December 4, 2003
Dean Increases Lead As Clark Challenges Kerry for Second Place
Among Democrats in New Hampshire


Receiving a boost from registered Democrats, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean has increased his lead in ballot preference among likely Democratic primary voters in the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Preference Primary according to the latest New Hampshire Poll. In ballot preference, Dean now leads with 45%. Senator John Kerry is at 13% and Wesley Clark is at 11%. Ballot preferences for the six other major candidates remain in single digits.

[young_at_heart]

19. Do they like what is happening to our country?

If they can give ANY good reason as to why Bush is making things better, then lets hear it. I'm about ready to give up on our country's future. I'm 64 years old and I never thought I'd see this day.

[roguevalley]

20. Polls like this are such a laugh. Bush is running unapposed. If there was

someone else for repugs to think about, he would have
terrible numbers all around.

[CalebHayes]

21. So how about Clark?

Why not? The man is "electable"! And that is a fact.

[w4rma]

22. NH *will* be a battleground state, IMHO. We have a LOT of work to do.(n/t)

[Born Free]

24. Clinton at 10%

I seem to remember a time when Bill Clinton was at 10% , and Bush was at 90% and everyone laughed because they didn't think Clinton had a chance.

[aeon flux]

25. I'd like to see the same poll conducted

by a more well-known/reliable source.

[BuckeFushe]

26. No 'about us' or credentials on ARG web page

One more thing. The subscribe to email alerts is another red flag here, along with the fact that THE POLL RESULTS ARE FREE. NO legit polling group provides free results, doesan't have any information about the group, or has such a crappy, second class web page.

[Nile]

27. Bush vs Dean??

I did not know that Bush was running against Dean in the Democratic primary. This poll must be bogus.

[dusty64]

28. I'm not buying this either.

New Hampshire would have gone blue without the heavy Green vote, what has changed? Are things honestly going better in this Country, I think NOT.

[farmbo]

29. And Dean beats Bush in Maryland (so far its 10 Electoral Vs to 4)

http://www.thewbalchannel.com/news/2695022/detail.html

[Snellius]

31. These polls have to be taken seriously

There are a lot of reservations about these polls, but the truth is this poll is consistent with every other poll I've seen that directly pits a named Dem against Bush. Especially Dean. And they're not apart by a little but by a mile. This is not bashing. It's just a fact. Tactics will have to accept it and work with it.

[bushisanidiot]

32. The DimWit Is No Further Ahead in the Polls Than His DimWit Dad Was at

this point in '91.

I say, let the idiot freepers feel secure that they prize "D" student will win easily. They'll just be that much more shocked when they get their sorry asses booted out of President Gore's house!

The tidal wave IS coming!

[joeunderdog]

39. I know many Conservatives who won't vote for Shrub.

I think he's disappointed and/or offended just about everybody but the CEO's by this point. Only Diebold and the Angry & Brainless can save him, IMO.

[devinsgram]

33. I for one am not falling for this poll. I don't believe

anything that's put out anymore at this point in time.

[54anickel]

34. Dean has GOP worried according to this article.

Some are trying to down play it, but there is some worry there.

http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/news/nation/7475360.htm
WASHINGTON - Advisers to President Bush once relished a race against Howard Dean, but they say they have become increasingly wary of him, worried that his unconventional and intense appeal poses a threat they had underestimated.

Various officials from throughout Bush's political organization said they view the former Vermont governor's nomination as all but inevitable -- even though no votes will be cast until next month, and some well-connected Democrats still hope to derail Dean because they fear he is running too far to the left to be viable in next fall's general election.

The endorsement of Dean by former Vice President Al Gore on Monday cemented the growing concern among GOP officials that Dean's lightning progress from also-ran to front-runner means that he could spawn unpredictable hazards for Bush. Although one administration official said Dean is still widely viewed in the White House as "a gift from God," a more cautious view is gaining currency.

"He has the biggest potential to go down in flames, but he also has a certain wild-card potential," said former Minnesota Republican Rep. Vin Weber.

more.....

[goforit]

35. Enroll all those in NH for the military!They're enthusiasm is overwhelming

SIGN THEM UP!!!!!

Their ready to fight!!!!

They're ready to steal!!!!

They're ready to cheat at all costs!!!

[Cooley Hurd]

36. No offense, but your source stinks...

It's a right winger site. Plus, NH is a very Repug state (the home of John Sununu) - I imagine any Dem candidate would trail Shrub in the polls...