US Consumer Sentiment Sinks In Early Dec.!

[Beetwasher]

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Consumer sentiment eroded in early December, according to researchers at the University of Michigan. The consumer sentiment index fell to 89.6 from 93.7 in November. The decline was unexpected. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists was for sentiment to improve to 95.6. The current conditions index fell to 93.6 in December from 102.5 in November. The consumer expectations index fell to 87.1 in December from 88.1 in the previous month.

--snip--

Oh brother...

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid=%7BB566C09A%2D8A79%2D4A17%2D8CE8%2DB9525A0A75B9%7D&siteid=mktw

[salin]

1. Maybe this explains

why unemployment claims slightly inched upwards last week, rather than finding a slight seasonal dip (as companies add temporary positions for the holidays).

[CMT]

2. hmm this and

jobless claims were higher than expected the last two weeks. Very interesting.

[girl gone mad]

3. But...

the Dow just got back to 10,000! The Bush economy is on fire! We're all getting rich! Or, hadn't you heard?

[Screaming Lord Byron]

4. Less workers on the payroll equals more profits. n/t

[girl gone mad]

6. I was being sarcastic.

Sorry that it wasn't more obvious. The media is just so focused on the "recovery" right now, they are ignoring the real problems the country is facing.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

9. I knew you were being sarcastic. I guess I was being too gnomic. Sorry!

[Military Brat]

5. The stock market has a mind of its own, so to speak

And it is fickle, so very fickle. :shrug:

[Yavin4]

33. The Stock Market Is Going By Interest Rate Policy

which will be held at their present record low-level through 2004.

[mhr]

7. Reuters Link

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=3984052

[truthseeker1]

8. Link doesn't work

Do you have a direct link? (this one looks like it goes through your email)

[Beetwasher]

10. Sorry, trying to fix

n/t

[DeepModem Mom]

11. I've been outside the U.S.,

and was just talking to my daughter back in the States today about the gangbusters economic recovery that will help Bush in the election. She said, "Mom, you're not here," and gave me several anecdotal stories indicating that the real economy there is not good. Now I read this, half an hour later, plus the "Hollow Holidays" LBN post. Can someone explain what is going on with the real and perceived U.S. economy?

[Ernesto]

12. While Xmas shopping

I noticed many deep discounts. It seems that most everything is 30 to 50% off on "sale" price. Retailers really appear to be desperate to move the goods. The stores don't seem terribly crowded with shoppers either.

[ProfessorGAC]

13. What Idiots!

The rise in consumer sentiment that they were using as their reference point has happened EVERY NOVEMBER for the 20 years it's been adequately measured!

The rise this year was within 0.14% of the predicted range (95% confidence interval).

So, any expectations that it would continue upward, rather than drop back to prior levels, as it has 20 Decembers in a row, just indicates that the economists who posited these predictions are either credentialed idiots or bought & paid for liars.
The Professor

[wryter2000]

15. Hi, Professor

As a definite non-economist, I've been struck lately by what I think is a lack of connection between what economists call our economy and what people experience as our economy. It seems to me that the professionals look at things like productivity and GDP and maybe the Dow -- indicators of business strength. People look at unemployment, foreclosures, debt, bankruptcies -- indicators of human misery.

Can those two kinds of things remain disconnected, and if so, how do we address that lack of connectedness?

[DeepModem Mom]

17. You make a great point, wryter2000....

The world has become a very different place in recent years, with jobs changing and going all over the world, with thousands working at Wal-Mart, etc. Is it time for a new method of gauging the economy?

[ProfessorGAC]

19. No. Read My Reply To Wryter

The economy is what the economy is. We don't need to change it at all.

The problem isn't the measurement. The problem is what we, as a society, do with those measurments.

When we have growth (and i'm not agreeing that we do), that doesn't provide an improvement in quality of life for all citizens, we have a social and governmental problem. The economy can be understood and framed in the exact same way. It's the actions we take to prevent the inequity in the financial outcomes that determine the effect on the individual.

Once it gets down to the people, it's not economic. It's financial. And that's where the gov't should come in, through regulation, corporate taxation, stimulating competition by capping market share, and reduction of taxes on middle class and lower. Unfortunately, we have supply side buffoons in charge right now, so that's not going to happen.
The Professor

[DeepModem Mom]

21. Thanks, Prof....

Maybe if the press did more reporting on issues of inequity and quality of life, it would help. I'm encouraged by the number of young people, for example, reading Barbara Ehrenreich's "Nickel and Dimed."

And, although I'm a Clarkie, I'm a fan of Dr. Dean and his call for voters in economic distress to vote their pocketbooks instead of divisive social issues. Then maybe we could throw out those in charge right now, whom you rightly criticize.

[Mountainman]

26. I know this is over simplistic but when I was in school a good economy

meant full employment and low inflation if I remember correctly. Full employment was something around 4% or 5% unemployment and low inflation meant that prices were rising around 2% per year.

Now a days I don't here any talk about full employment when describing a good economy.

[Skittles]

39. hey Prof

I like reading your stuff; you make a lot of sense. :thumbsup:

[ProfessorGAC]

18. Good Economists Look At All Of That

Also, they don't fudge the numbers?

What good methodology entails is to determine the influence of certain events (extrinsic and intrinsic) on those economic outputs that DON'T influence other outputs. (That's the early set-up that is the tricky part. Fully independent outputs need to be id'd and that takes some time.)

Anwyay, in this way, the influence that certain economic factors have on things like those you've described can be understood. Unemployment is part of my model, as is total domestic debt load (non-governmental). The human misery parts are outputs but are not independent of the GDP. The outputs of traditional econometrics are the inputs to the financial issues you describe.

So, from a "purist economist" POV, there is no disconnect. One thing is economics, the other is finance.

The problem is that the economists who get the media attention are too often wrong (or cheating the data) and we hear "the good news". But, the various ouputs of the economic cause and effect aren't influence the macrofinancial situation the way they would if these folks were right.

They're not, UE remains high, debt remains paralyzing, BKO is up. The disconnect is not between the two "economies" as you describe. It's between what these "credentialed fools" say and the truth.
The Professor

[tom_paine]

25. My take on your Big Picture, Professor

Is that the skewing of data, and I also happen to believe the further and further "pushing the envelope" of statistical maipulation to level approaching outright deception that has characterized the Busheviks in almost every field, is creating a Soviet-style lie machine on the order of:

"Toilet Paper Production is up 600%, Comrades! Do not believe the lies spread by our enemies about people waiting in lines for 6 hours!"

Of course, our is a uniquely American Pravda driving towards an economy measured by referents that are without regard to the bottom 80% of Amerikans.

So all that you and others that all the creepily conveniently timed "good news" (let us not forget the Busheviks have been purging departments and "changing methodologies" which is a Soviet-style euphemism for false manipualtion if I've ever heard one) is issued seemingly without regard for what is occurring to the bottom 80% of the Empire.

And of course Corporate TV Pravda, almost as much an extension of the Amerikan Empire as the original Pravda was of the Soviet, is playing it exactly as Master wants, which is blaring the "good news" without refernce to the bottom 80% of Imperial Subjects.

Can they continue doing this? Given that historically, monarchial and dictatorial and Totalitarian economies do indeed act without reference to the vast majority of their bottom-most subjects, I think the this has been the rule, and the Old American Republic (post WWII) the exception.

Now it's time to join the rest of history, sadly.

[wryter2000]

30. Thanks

You've given me a lot to digest.

[justjones]

20. And individuals...

such as myself look at the negative balance in my bank account every month because my pay doesn't meet my basic living expenses resulting in my living off of overdraft protection, which of course allows my bank to charge me an exorbitant amount of fees in another case of the rich getting richer, while I can't, for the life of me, find another job that pays enough to keep my head above water although in the past I have never had any problem doing so, which give me personal and intimate knowledge that, no matter what these "economists" are spewing, this economy stinks to high heaven...........
:hurts: DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE!!

[DeepModem Mom]

22. Welcome to DU, justjones....

Let's hope for better days --

[justjones]

38. Thank you for the welcome....I'm happy to be here!

[Mountainman]

27. It actually costs more to be poor.

I am going on the fouth month of unemployment and the savings are gone. I am now having to pay my truck payment and credit cards late. I get hit with a late fee and higher interest because of it. My credit rating which I was working so hard to improve is now shot again.

I guess the moral of my story is to never borrow so the next time I get laid off I won't have truck payments or credit card payments. That's my plan anyway.

[wryter2000]

31. Boy, do I know that

My family went through our period of suffering under Reagan. Now, with my job and my dh's extra income with social security, we're doing fairly well. Not rich, but we can make ends meet. Part of that is we don't have any interest payments at all, except for the house payment. That's a lot of extra money.

[justjones]

36. I'm hearing ya.....

Isn't ironic that the poorer you are, the more you pay all around...in interest, in fees, in goods in the poorer neighborhoods, in everything? The perfect example of this is those pay day loan places, which are making a killing on the interest "rape" they charge people, which I'm sure mainly are working-class.

Seems like we are in the same boat as far as declining credit ratings...I too worked very hard over the past couple of years to build my rating, but it's going down the tubes once again...

I'm just telling myself if I was able to build it up before, I will be able to do it again. The only problem is if the economy and this country keeps heading the way that it is, I'm not so sure I will get another chance.

[kimchi]

40. Welcome to DU, justjones!

Keep fighting for '04; we WILL get through this!:hi:

[newyawker99]

28. Hi justjones!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[justjones]

37. Thank you!

I'm very happy to be here with people who are AWAKE and care to PAY ATTENTION to what's happening.

[Yavin4]

35. In Their Eyes,

You're fully employed.

[stopbush]

23. The bushies treat their economic numbers just like they treat

everything else, ie: throw up a bunch of contradictory information. It amounts to information overload to the average Joe who hasn't the capacity not the time nor the interest to sort it all out. If he watches Faux, he gets only the good (ie: the lies) news. If he watches the major networks, he gets so confused that he defaults to whatever political beliefs he holds. It's simple. It worked in the faux military war, and it works in the bushies war against the common American and their economic well-being.

The bottom line is that the last thing the repigs want is a propsperous, educated electorate. If the country is doing well economically, then people start to aspire to something higher - like environmental issues. They start to have more leisure time and begin to - gasp! - read books that may challenge their minds on all sorts of topics like religion and politics. No, the repigs know that an uneducated and impovered populace is extremely easy to manipulate through fear and threats, whether it be unseen foreign boogeymen or an incorporate wrathful god who's gonna burn ya in hell for eternity of you don't vote repig!

BTW - anyone notice the shameless shilling Lou Dobbs in doing on CNN these days? As more and more people lose their jobs, he's running a series of feel-good fantasies called "America Works." Uh-huh.

Shameless.

[Gingersnap]

43. great post--I only disagree about the impoverished part

I don't think it's necessary that the population be impoverished to be manipulated and it's actually dangerous for the current admin if too many people have the rug pulled from under them, they're liable to wake up.

No, I think it serves the Bushies very well to have complacent, lower middle class and middle class uneducated sitting in front of the tv watching all those ads for the next big SUV. They don't spend their leisure time reading, unfortunately, they just spend it watching TV (getting more brainwashed), buying stuff and wanting to buy stuff.

Education is the key I think, and ignorance the greatest tool of the powerful.

[sendero]

42. I'mb betting...

.... it was the latter.

[Supormom]

14. I finished my holiday shopping before Thanksgiving...

Know several others who did the same. Also have done a lot of shopping online.

[ozone_man]

16. Whoops, it looks like it's down from here.

The recovery was a flash in the pan. I'm taking a nice little pre-Christmas holiday in Canada to support their economy, for being so understanding during the Iraq war. Bush would like us all to spend our money and pump the economy back up, so that he can have another term. Bah, humbug! }(

[peabody]

24. I work at the customer

service booth at the Valley Fair Mall in San Jose; and
although this is not scientific but just my own observation,
I think the shopping season this year is just awful. I can
see people walking the mall but most of them are empty
handed. The small retailers I've talked to are all saying
that they're doing terrible and I'm seeing some larger stores
leaving the mall. Granted that they might be leaving because
the rent is high but I can't help but to think that it has
something to do with with people not buying. Why leave around
the Christmas season?

It was the same thing last year: lots of people in the mall
but nobody holding shopping bags. The news kept screaming
about how good the shopping season was up till the very
end; and it turned out to be the worst in 30 years. I
think it's happening once again.

[newyawker99]

29. Hi peabody!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[wryter2000]

32. Welcome to our new people

justjones and peabody :hi:

[TEXASYANKEE]

34. Welcome Peabody.

I concur with your observation (with both last year and this year). No crowds at the malls/stores either this year or last year.

[kimchi]

41. Hi peabody!

Welcome to DU!

[many a good man]

44. Its Wall Street versus Main Street

Full employment is the only measure that matters!

Remember, there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. Now have damn Bush/Cheney statistical lies! Prosperity puffed up by nothing but hot air.

:puffpiece:

[Mr_Bleedingheart]

45. yes, I am waiting to see what happens in 04

I wonder after the Christmas hype wears off, where will we be?
Will the manufacturing jobs come back? Will the software industry be humming?