Natural Gas Prices Soaring

[POed_Ex_Repub]

Natural gas prices have surged nearly 50 percent since Thanksgiving despite an apparent lack of events that normally create such spikes, like tight supplies or forecasts of unusually cold weather.

The frenzied climb in prices has led to calls for investigations by politicians and executives of gas-dependent industries into whether traders have improperly manipulated natural gas markets.

Companies in the chemical, fertilizer and ammonia industries that depend on natural gas as an essential ingredient for their products have been among the most vocal in their complaints about gas prices, which have soared to their highest level since February.

More...

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/13/business/13gas.html?ex=1072587600&en=1400ea702a87d297&ei=5004&partner=UNTD

Lots of speculation going on in natural gas.. Does somebody know something that we don't??

[Minstrel Boy]

1. petroleum production is peaking, but so is natural gas.

Unsure whether this spike can be directly attributed to it, but much higher prices are certainly coming.

[muriel_volestrangler]

11. fascinating downloadable applet here

from BP (if you trust things from them to run on your computer, of course). It allows you to chart energy usage and production statistics for countries and regions for the past 30 years or so. I think it shows:

North American gas consumption per year is currently one eighth of the total reserves.

Central and South American gas reserves could supply North America for another 8 years. This would almost certainly have to be shipped, which is less efficient, rather than piped.

So unless there are new gas discoveries soon, nearly all natural gas will have to be shipped to the USA very soon, and soon that will have to be from outside the Americas.

http://production.investis.com/bp2/ia/stat/

Western Europe extracts about one fifteenth of its gas reserves each year. Without that, it has to import gas via the Russian pipelines (or get it shipped in).

Although a lot of natural gas uses are more easily substituted with something else (eg electricity production) than oil, it still costs a lot to switch.

[Sliverofhope]

2. Peak oil will happen

whether we ignore it or not. I wonder, could it be so soon?

[Occulus]

5. Would we be told?

[aneerkoinos]

6. It probably did

In 2000.

[Rainbows]

16. Peak Oil and Natural Gas ...

Estimates of peak oil by geologists not industry sources, range from 2000 through 2007. Colin Campbell (google his name it will be worth your time)now estimates it is happening right now, though the actual day month and year can only be realized in retrospect. Peak Natural gas global is estimated at 2020 plus or minus a few years. Domestic natural gas is believed to have peaked in 2000 or shortly thereafter. This last summer our reserves were way below normal and not recovering at sufficient rates. Shortages for this winter have been predicted since early summer. Check the free section of http://www.fromthewilderness.com and scrollback to about april and you will find some very interesting articles about peak oil and natural gas, both global and domestic. One article in particular quotes one of the members of the notorious Cheney Energy Task Force of 2001 ( the one we are not allowed to know about). His last name was Simmons if memory serves me, and he has gone on record stating the US is facing incredible energy shortages in natural gas which he believes peaked in 2000. He also believes peak oil has arrived. Some peak oil links below.
http://www.oilcrash.com/
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/
http://www.oilcrisis.com/
From there follow the links, but I also do highly recommend googling Colin Campbell and following the above link to from the wilderness website to the articles mentioned above for a quick overview. Note: edited because I forgot the infernal www's in one of the links.

[fedsron2us]

20. This is probably the most important issue facing mankind.

I would recommend everyone to familiarise themselves with the subject as it is going to have a profound influence on all our lives. The potential economic, political and social impact is going to be huge. At the risk of becoming a bore, I have tried to raise the profile of the subject with all my family, friends and work colleagues. Unfortunately, a lot of people just want to shut their eyes and hope it goes away. They are in denial(and I am not talking about the river in Egypt!).

The good news is that if humanity get it right we might just save the planet from ecological catastrophe and develop a more just and sustainable economic system. The bad news is that, on past form, we will probably get it wrong.

[The Zanti Regent]

22. Republicans won't listen because they beleive Jesus will come for them

Amazing how many of them are so brainwashed that they actually beleive that Rapture shit.

Folks, Jesus remembered the cornholing he got the first time.

He WON'T come back!

[tlcandie]

13. From an article I read linked here in DU somewhere ..

peak oil was reached some time ago. Sorry no link. Just woke up for short short and not in mood to search.

[Jacobin]

3. It ALWAYS doubles after a nasty cold spell

I have a tiny gas royalty check I get each month. In winte, I can buy two pizzas a month with it.

In the summer, maybe one.

[xray s]

4. speculation

sometimes speculation busts out and alot of people get screwed (mostly consumers)

check this site to get the pulse of market traders

http://www.marketforum.com/?id=716146

Here are some candid comments from that thread;

This market while making me $$ kind of takes the luster off the argument that the market will take care of everything, that somehow deregulation and a hands off approach is best for all. Imagine the bills some will see to heat their homes simply because a speculative market has driven the price totally out of any reasonable range even though the supply is apparently more than adequate.

Indeed.

[coda]

7. Except the bills won't come until after they've done their X-Mas shopping.

There may be record merchandise returns on 12-26.

[Seldona]

8. investigations by politicians and executives?

Should read 'investigations OF politicians and executives'.

[tinanator]

9. Bush and Baker bought into Natural Gas in 92-3

doesnt seem to be a front burner fact of history, but I remember it.

[Roon]

10. 74 % increase in Colorado

and we were made aware of this way before the heating season settled in. At one point it was slated to go up even more but that was called off because I guess they had more gas than they thought. The 74% increase is bad enough though.

Crooks..all of them..

[warrior1]

12. Welcome

to California.

[ithacan]

14. Deregulation is robbery

it's as simple as that.

[DemoTex]

15. SSShhhh! It's Prime Minister Cheney's TOP SECRET energy policy.

Got gas?

[BiggJawn]

17. Please NIPSCO, use some "Astroglide" when you hand me my bill!

Highest-priced gas in the state anyway, and now this....My Girlfriend keeps her house at 55 in the winter, and now I'm keeping my apartment at 55 in the daytime and 60 at night. It's a real BITCH. I HATE trying to relax with "steam" coming out of my mouth, and have you EVER tried "gettin' Jiggy" with 2 sweaters and gloves on?

I'm getting plenty sick and tired of being butt-raped by Corporate Murka while the Government makes mewling noises about "Free Enterprise"....

[ConcernedCanuk]

18. Dunno how close our gas prices are - but here's some Canuk info

. .

Klik above image for more info and source for quotes below:

Natural gas demand in North America is increasing at about 3 %
per year whereas supply is increasing at about 1%

Economic activity is seen to be increasing through 2003/04.

Production from many older gas wells is declining quite rapidly.

More natural gas is being used for electricity generation. Any new
electricity capacity brought on line right now is generated by
natural gas, rather than oil, coal, water or nuclear.

As the price of crude oil increases, some industries switch to
natural gas. Many developed this dual fuel capability when gas prices
skyrocketed in 2001.

Prices are not expected to come down until new major gas pipelines
are built connecting new gas fields in Alaska and the Northwest
Territories. That is at least 6 years away. Recent reports however
suggest that virtually all of this northern gas will be used in to
extract oil from the tar sands in Northern Alberta.

/snip/ - OH Dear - We DO need a regime change, all dat gas!-right ???


Lost this webpage, but here's a global price graph including crude

[Robb]

19. Doesn't add up

Bush's energy bill includes $18 billion in loan guarantees for an Alaska-Chicago natural gas pipeline.

Pakistan is committed to buying NG from Turkmenistan via the Turkmenistan/Afghanistan/Pakistan pipe, bringing 100 trillion cf to market.

The implication should be a glut, right? Are notions of supply and demand anachronistic? :shrug:


Edited to add: Azerbaijan is also going to double gas production by 2007. I don't get it.

[Porcupine]

23. Natural Gas doesn't ship well....

except in pipelines. There is no pipeline from the Alaskan fields and there never will be one from Azerbijan.

Natural gas tankers are also the biggest manmade bombs short of Nukes. You DO NOT want a tanker terminal in your town and niether does anybody else who has taken a college physics class.

In short the entire U.S. has been busily converting our power plants to use natural gas that didn't exist and isn't coming from aywhere. At some point soon, spring 2004 by some calculations there will be brownouts and industry stoppages simply because the gas cannot be found AT ANY PRICE.

This isnt' your usual chicken little energy shotage talk. It is all too real. Pray for a warm witner.

[Nlighten1]

21. We need to deregulate this industry

and give them tax cuts...that should fix it.

[SharonAnn]

24. You're right! D'oh, why didn't I thinkof that!

ROFLOL