Advanced General Elections is the Worst Scenario for Both Sides (Venezuela

[Say_What]

In addition to the general elections article, be sure to catch the Why does Bush fear Venezuela? op/ed below.

<clips>

The subject of advanced general elections is circulating the political atmosphere of the country. High level functionaries of the government say so in private and so did the company Merril Lynch recently.

Nevertheless, the deputies of Democratic Action (AD), Pastor Heydra, and of Chavez’s Fifth Republic Movement Party (MVR), Nicholas Maduro, agree that this scenario is the worst one for both sides.

In order for President Hugo Chávez to call for general elections he would have to amend the Constitution, which, according to article 341 of the constitution, establishes that such changes to the Magna Carta must be put to a popular vote.

Opposition in a tight spot. In the opinion of the deputy Pastor Heydra, general elections would favor the Head of State, who would have a new opportunity to be measured in presidential elections and would put the opposition in the difficult situation of choosing not only a single presidential candidate, but also 3 thousand aspirants for the other popularly elected positions.


http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/news.php?newsno=1129

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<clips>

Why does Bush fear Venezuela?

Venezuela has become a haven for Islamic terrorist groups, if you believe General James Hill, head of US Southern Command - the US military's command centre responsible for keeping Latin America in line. His claim that Margarita Island, off the Venezuelan coast, is a hotbed of Arab "money laundering, drug trafficking, or arms deals" appeared in US News & World Report in October.

Earlier in the year, the neoconservative Weekly Standard magazine called for the US Congress and the Organisation of American States to impose sanctions on Venezuela. It reported that a Venezuelan pilot who had "defected" to the US was claiming that President Hugo Chavez had links with al-Qaeda. In one transaction, Chavez was alleged to have paid Osama Bin Laden $1m (although why the near-bankrupt Venezuela would subsidise the billionaire Bin Laden was not clear).

?Que pasa? Such stories, with their unnamed government officials, inventions, supposed defectors and links to international terror groups, pop up more and more frequently in the US press. They are so reminiscent of an earlier era of government-sanctioned propaganda - disclosed by the Iran-Contra investigation - that they raise the question: "Who's now advising George Bush on Latin America?"

The answer is Otto Reich, special envoy to the western hemisphere. It was Reich who, in the 1980s, as head of the US State Department's Office of Public Diplomacy, planted disinformation in the US press about Nicaragua's left-wing San-dinista government. One of his fabrications - reported in some credulous newspapers - was that tiny Nicaragua had bought MiG fighter jets to attack the US. As the Iran-Contra scandal unravelled, the US comptroller-general concluded that Reich's office had "engaged in prohibited, covert propaganda activity". Now, despite protests from the Senate, he's in from the political wilderness, concentrating on Venezuela and Chavez.


http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/articles.php?artno=1075

[ithacan]

1. Republican strategies: same at home and abroad

reading the second article gives us a sense of what the GOP will resort to if they lose the election. They have shown they will resort to anything, will stop at nothing, to get their way.

Scary stuff, preview of what's to come in this country.

[Judi Lynn]

2. Why does Bush fear Venezuela?

Why does Bush fear Venezuela?

Saturday, Dec 13, 2003

By: Leigh Phillips, New Stateman, December 15th, 2003

Venezuela has become a haven for Islamic terrorist groups, if you believe General James Hill, head of US Southern Command - the US military's command centre responsible for keeping Latin America in line. His claim that Margarita Island, off the Venezuelan coast, is a hotbed of Arab "money laundering, drug trafficking, or arms deals" appeared in US News & World Report in October.

Earlier in the year, the neoconservative Weekly Standard magazine called for the US Congress and the Organisation of American States to impose sanctions on Venezuela. It reported that a Venezuelan pilot who had "defected" to the US was claiming that President Hugo Chavez had links with al-Qaeda. In one transaction, Chavez was alleged to have paid Osama Bin Laden $1m (although why the near-bankrupt Venezuela would subsidise the billionaire Bin Laden was not clear).

?Que pasa? Such stories, with their unnamed government officials, inventions, supposed defectors and links to international terror groups, pop up more and more frequently in the US press. They are so reminiscent of an earlier era of government-sanctioned propaganda - disclosed by the Iran-Contra investigation - that they raise the question: "Who's now advising George Bush on Latin America?"

The answer is Otto Reich, special envoy to the western hemisphere. It was Reich who, in the 1980s, as head of the US State Department's Office of Public Diplomacy, planted disinformation in the US press about Nicaragua's left-wing San-dinista government. One of his fabrications - reported in some credulous newspapers - was that tiny Nicaragua had bought MiG fighter jets to attack the US. As the Iran-Contra scandal unravelled, the US comptroller-general concluded that Reich's office had "engaged in prohibited, covert propaganda activity". Now, despite protests from the Senate, he's in from the political wilderness, concentrating on Venezuela and Chavez. (snip/...)

http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/articles.php?artno=1075

[Judi Lynn]

3. Venezuela's oil industry reports significant recovery

Venezuela's oil industry reports significant recovery

www.chinaview.cn 2003-12-14 13:56:27


CARACAS, Dec. 13 (Xinhuanet) -- Venezuelan state-run petroleum company PDVSA announced Saturday that its export of crude oil and its by-products reached over 2.0 million barrels per day from January to November, representing a substantial recovery amid the country's economic recession.

The company said in a communique that its foreign-sales volume demonstrates its capability to ensure a reliable supply to its clients around the world.

The PDVSA's daily petroleum exports stand at 2.066 million barrels, recovering from a record low of 250,000 barrels in the December 2002-January 2003 period after a 63-day national labor stoppage called by the opposition to oust President Hugo Chavez. (snip)

(snip) The PDVSA recovery is expected to help boost the economy of Venezuela, the fifth largest oil exporter in the world and the only Andean country suffering an economic downturn in 2003 with anestimated contraction of 12 percent in the gross domestic product (GDP). (snip/...)

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2003-12/14/content_1230027.htm

[Judi Lynn]

4. Venezuelan Indians need to claim constitutionally granted land

Dec. 13, 2003, 4:30PM

Indians rush to map their lands
Venezuelan tribe seeks legal rights
By ALEXANDRA OLSON
Associated Press
VISTA ALEGRE, Venezuela -- Fidelio Perez, a Pemon Indian in Venezuela's remote Gran Sabana, once toppled towers to fight a new 400-mile power line through this pristine land of towering mesas, rivers and rain forest.

"It looks like a scratch on a beautiful landscape," Perez, 29, said softly as he gazed out of a clay hut while a dark storm passed through this village of fishermen, hunters and farmers.

Perez and other Pemon failed to stop the power line. But they're working to prevent more unwanted development by mapping ancestral lands and claiming legal title to them, assisted by a Cornell University doctoral candidate in urban and rural planning.

Venezuela's 1999 Constitution, promoted by President Hugo Chavez, granted the country's more than 300,000 indigenous people the right to own ancestral land -- and to be involved in demarcating that territory. (snip)

(snip) "Chavez visits indigenous communities. He thinks of us as equals. None before him did," Perez said. "Before, we were treated like dogs." (snip/...)

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/world/2291493

[pescao]

5. this is a great piece from AP olson

Still, its residents want their property titles. The village elder, 67-year-old Julio Peña, walked for more than a day from his hut to help map Vista Alegre. He'd never used a map before but had no trouble remembering the names and locations of the 117 rivers meandering through his land.

While Peña and other elders directed the drawing of the map, younger villagers took Sletto and his students on daylong hikes to take coordinates of key sites.

In Vista Alegre, Peña's wrinkled face brightens as he speaks of sacred zones, rocky areas around lagoons and waterfalls. The Pemon believe that lightning originates in those areas, Pena explains, waving his hands and making booming sounds. To avoid awakening a storm, people must pass through carefully, without touching rocks or water.

[pescao]

6. Wilpert: The Politics of Majority Politics (How Many Signatures? Part II)

http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/articles.php?artno=1076

How Many Signatures? Part II
The Politics of Majority Politics

Sunday, Dec 14, 2003
By: Gregory Wilpert

The strategy of Venezuela’s opposition is clear: convince everyone that the opposition has the majority’s support and if petitions or elections say otherwise, then someone is playing dirty. Coincidentally, the pro-government side’s strategy is pretty much the same. As I argued earlier (“How Many Signatures? On Watching a Train Wreck in Progress”), the fact that both sides are employing this strategy is a recipe for disaster. What neither side seems to consider is not only that they could be wrong, but that it is even possible for both of them to be wrong.

...

For the past two years, opinion polls conducted by organizations sympathetic to the opposition have showed that President Chavez has had an approval rating that fluctuated consistently between 30 and 40% (with a temporary high of 45% immediately following the coup attempt). First of all, it is possible to raise serious doubts about the accuracy of these numbers simply because large parts of Venezuela’s population live in the “barrios,” the poor parts of the city, to which opinion pollsters generally have a difficult time gaining entrance for their door-to-door polls. During the oil industry shut-down access was so limited that opinion polls were conducted only via telephone, a factor which seriously distorts the accuracy of the polls, since most people in the poorest neighborhoods do not have telephones.

On the one hand, while the poor are more difficult to get a hold of for the pollsters, it is the poor who tend to participate less in political life, which should explain why polling data in during the last two presidential elections were more or less accurate. On the other hand, in the past five years since Chavez’ election, he has significantly politicized the people who live in Venezuela’s barrios, his greatest source of support. It is thus quite likely that they will turn out to vote in much greater numbers than in the past.

...

So, rather than rely on demonstrations as evidence for its support, the opposition is now relying on the signature campaign. As mentioned earlier, the opposition claims to have collected between 3.4 and 3.8 million signatures, while Chavista petition observers say the actual number is 1.9 million. However, mounting indirect evidence suggests that the actual figure is closer to the Chavista number instead of the opposition’s. First, and perhaps most suspicious, is that the opposition has delayed turning in the signatures to the electoral council (CNE) by two weeks now. The opposition says that the delay is due to its efforts to count and verify the signatures itself before turning them in to the CNE, as a protection against possible government fraud. Unfortunately, the opposition’s verification process could also be setting the stage for denying the CNE’s ruling, should it find that large numbers of the signatures are invalid. Also, if the pro-Chavez camp’s numbers are correct, this time could be used to forge signatures, so that the total turned in equals the number the opposition reported it collected from the different signature locations in the country.

...

Finally, the third reason for doubting the opposition’s figures is a taped telephone conversation (probably illegal, but an apparently common practice in all Venezuelan governments) between a former Attorney General and his son, both activists in the opposition camp. According to them, the US-funded opposition organization Sumate, which provided logistical support to the opposition during the signature drive, told opposition leaders during a confidential meeting that it had counted merely 1.9 million signatures – the number pro-Chavez observers also provided. Until now neither participant in the conversation has denied having held this phone conversation. As for the media, it has studiously ignored the existence of the tape.

...

[pescao]

7. the tape recording...

http://www.aporrea.org/audio/1203/sumatefracaso.mp3

[Judi Lynn]

8. Wonder how long the opposition can refuse to turn in its cards?

Too bad there isn't a way they can be forced to turn them in, now, before they can "fix" them.

I took a quick look, after reading your reference to U.S. funding of Sumate, and found this article quickly, which tells me all I need to know about that group:

(snip) Sumate, the organization which is distributing the cards, was the main organization which organized the February 2nd petition drive, in favor of a recall referendum against President Chavez. The CNE invalidated that petition in August because the signatures were collected well before the citizen right to holding a referendum became effective. That is, the right to a recall referendum becomes a reality only once the elected official’s term in office has reached its half-way point.

Since then, Sumate has taken a much lower profile, especially since its status as a non-profit organization has been questioned and because of questions about how it was being financed. Sumate’scurrent campaign to inform citizens of their electoral registration information and of the procedures for participating in the recall referendum process is being funded by grants from the United States, via the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) and the US Agency for International Development (USAID), according to Sumate’s director, Corina Machado.

Sumate says that the cards’ purpose is to provide citizens with accurate information about their registration so that their signatures are valid and to guard against fraud by allowing signers to find their signatures easily, via the petition form’s serial number, should there be any question about whether the person had signed.

Another controversy involving Sumate is its effort to place computers at all signature collection locations, with which citizens can verify their registration date before singing. The CNE, however, issued a declaration, saying that the computers are not permitted, primarily because Sumate was using an old electoral registry to verify the data and that over 400,000 new voters had been registered who are not in Sumate’s directory. Opposition legislators argued that the computers should not be allowed because they suspect that Sumate would try to enter people who are not registered and transfer their data into the official registry. (snip/...)

http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/articles.php?artno=1076

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Really makes you sick to think innocent, uninformed American taxpayers are funding such devious, deceptive, and treacherous plots to work against the majority of Venezuelan citizens in overthrowing their enormously popular President.

Otto Reich is completely behind the _Bush assault on Venezuela, according to an article posted here today. He was seriously, sternly discredited during Reagan's time "at the helm" but that doesn't seem to disqualify him from running _Bush's Latin American policy.

ON edit:

Thanks, so much, to Pescao for providing the link to the phone call from the former Venezuelan Attorney General, and his son, both active in the opposition party.

I sent the link to some Spanish speaking friends of D.U. I'll bet they'll find it very interesting.