Saddam's capture is major coup, may not end unrest

[UpInArms]

http://www.reuters.com/locales/newsArticle.jsp?type=worldNews&locale=en_IN&storyID=3988761

LONDON (Reuters) - Saddam Hussein's capture will delight most Iraqis and devastate the deposed dictator's loyalists, but even this stunning victory for U.S. forces may not quell the violence they face in Iraq.

Even as Iraqis took to the streets to rejoice at the seizure of the once feared ruler, analysts said it was premature to assume that resistance to the U.S.- led occupation would crumble.

"There will be a reduction in operations sponsored by former regime loyalists, but this is not the full story because they are not the only group involved," said Mustafa Alani, an Iraq analyst at London's Royal United Services Institute.

"It won't affect those by Iraqi or Arab mujahideen and might increase them because those who did not want to be branded as supporters of Saddam might now join a resistance with a more nationalist dimension," he said.

<snip>

Alani said it was a propaganda coup for the Americans to have captured Saddam alive, especially after their galling failure to seize al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan.

...more...

[mazzarro]

1. Now the resistance takes on true nationalist coloration without

the image of Saddam Hussein distorting the aim of bringing the occupation to an end.

[The Backlash Cometh]

2. Precisely.

Now the real fighting begins.

[burythehatchet]

33. I'm afraid you might be right

the war might actually be starting.

:scared:

[conservdem]

15. Or hopefully it collapses!

[JNelson6563]

3. No more blaming the "bitter-enders"

and it will become even more clear that us going in there has turned Iraq into a hotbed of terrorism.

Julie

[UpInArms]

6. that is my opinion also

because I do not believe (and just because I believe something, it does not necessarily make it true) that the resistance to the US "coalition" is not dependent upon one person (SH) - I believe that the Iraqis feel that they have been used (as I do) as pawns in the game for oil and empire.

The average Iraqi does not feel safer, nor do they feel liberated, they seem to see the "coalition" as another version of oppression.

I think that the proof will be in the pudding, as the saying goes.

Let us see where we are in another few weeks.

[hippywife]

10. But it's gonna be

a long coupla weeks. It's always difficult waiting for the American public at large to wake up to what's going on and the implications. :eyes:

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

42. By all accounts you're right

Saddam did not have a radio with him and it was observed that he probably was not directing the resistance so look for more fighting.

I think Saddam was a evil tyrant but the fact that he was toppled and captured by U.S. forces acting alone instead of a U.N. coalition blunts the moral victory of it all. I know Bush likes to call our forces a coalition but I'm sure this board knows what's real and what's fake.

[hippywife]

4. I think I have to disagree with

this statement:

"There will be a reduction in operations sponsored by former regime loyalists,...

While he is in US hands, why would they stop fighting? If they are truly loyal to him, why wouldn't they increase their operations?

Either way, it's not going to solve anything.

[hadrons]

7. I agree, they'll see it as their chance to take over .....

and now Saddam's former foes don't worry about him returning, they can join the fight too ... and Saddam's capture won't stop bin Laden plans for Iraq, it fact it will probably speed it up

[conservdem]

16. I hope your wrong and your optomisim returns.

[Tuttle]

32. Hey, conservdem

can you tell us how this justifies the invasion of a sovereign nation and the wholesale murder of tens of thousands of Iraqis?

Oh yes, please tell us when they will find the WMDs, while you're at it...

Tut-tut

[conservdem]

34. Others who are more articulate than I have stated the reasons

that justified our action. You have obviously rejected their reasoning so I doubt there is anything I could tell you that would change your mind.

In any event, I think it was UN Resolution 1440 or 1441 and humanitarian intervention were to good reasons IMO for our actions. But I recognize that reasonable minds could differ on supporting and opposing the military action over thier.

As to the WMD's, my belief is growing that the info we were given on them was overly hyped, and I think that is one of the things that will cost Bush reelection. His and his admin's penchant for corporation like Haliburton and Bechtel will should also cost him. Same with the structue of his tax cut.

Please tell me though, are you glad that Suddam has been removed?

[Sideways]

35. Saddam Is Just Being Used To Justify This Crass Invasion

Stop the Saddam is evil nonsense. He was a puppet of the USA until WE wanted to remove him. We funded his gassing of the Kurds and his entire regime.

There was no reason for this war other than profit and to establish military bases in Iraq.

The USA was afraid of the Euro and tired of Saddam so he was dismissed. Yes Saddam is a baddy but he was our baddy until he began to talk shit. Get it?

There are plenty of evil dictators in the world..can you name me a few?

[conservdem]

38. Its not nonsense and just because earlier admins wrongly supported him,

it does not make it wrong for us to wise up and remove him.

Aren't you glad he's been removed?

Yes, their are other dictators in the world, the one in N. Korea comes to mind. As I wrote ealier today, I hope they all take notice of what happened to Saddam and are deterred from criminal and terrorist acts.

[Tuttle]

40. I think this whole Iraq thing was bungled from the start:

obviously you think we should go anywhere and take out anyone we deem to be an 'evil-doer'... I say that is crap and I do not rejoice when a bully takes over a schoolyard.

But tell me conswervdem, did you watch Popeye cartoons, hoping that Bluto would someday win the fight?

Tut-tut

[conservdem]

41. No, I never rooted for Bluto, but I did get a kick out the T shirt that

showed the Coyote clutching the Road Runner by his neck and saying “Beep beep my ass.”

Your other assumtions about me are wrong too. I don't think we should whimsically go after "evil-doers," but I do not think we should rule it out in every situation. IMO if we show that we are never going to stop the bullies of the world, more will feel free to bully.

Did you support our actions Afghanistan or Kosovo?

[pinto]

43. good analogy, Coyote and Road Runner was a statement about futility

of obsessive conflict. Mr. Husseins capture is a good thing, in and of itself, for Iraq. I think the rest of the world's benefit is questionable. After Iran/Iraq war (remember that one) and Gulf War, Saddam posed a small relative threat to the west.

[Tuttle]

46. I think we are clearly the bully

in Iraq - we went in without any reason that could be verified (or maybe you'll cite a T-shirt wearing Looney Tune RE: WMDs).

The UN went to Kosovo - we were a big part of that.

The Saudis funded the attacks of 9/11 and sent 15 of their own; we kicked ass in Afghanistan and it looks like we'll get our pipeline!

Hooray!

We can gouge the taxpayers even more now!!!

Saddam kicked Halliburton off page one!!!

It's a GREAT DAY for the world!!!

</sarcasm>

Tut-tut

[conservdem]

50. I think it is a GREAT day for the world.

But you still did not reveal whether you supported the military action in Kosovo or Afghanistan. Or maybe you did reveal your support but you cannot bring yourself to be up front about it.

I have not for gotten about Halliburton or the Saudis. Glad you have not either.

On edit: Have you ever supported or wanted to see a humanitarian intervention? Oh I forgot you supported Kosovo, right? That counts as HI.

[Tuttle]

51. and you "for got" all about WMD

just like all the other freepers!

Tut-tut

[conservdem]

60. Wrong again. Read post #34.

BTW I am crushed by your mockery of my incorrect typing of the word "for got." Is that the best you can do?

[coralrf]

54. Another cheap shot..

Kosovo to Iraq. There is absolutely nothing in common between them. Not a damn thing. It has become so tiring to listen to conservatives justify Iraq in terms of Kosovo.
Kosovo was necessary, as was Afghanistan. Iraq was just a prop job for Bush. Kosovo had broad international support. Iraq had Bush’s family’s support.

All of you that pumped that war might take a long look at yourself in the mirror. There are close to 500 young men and women, AMERICAN'S, dead and Saddam is alive. You are alive. Spin that.

[conservdem]

59. Why, in your opinion, was Kosovo and Afghanistan necessary?

If you supported Afghanistan should you be looking in the mirror as well since some of our troops have been and are being lost over their, we still have not grabed Bin Laden, and you are alive?

You honestly believe that there in "absolutely nothing in common between" Kosovo and Iraq. You really could not find even one factor in common?

Even if you were correct that Iraq had Bush's family's support, aren't you glad that Saddam is captured.

[ze_dscherman]

63. This day is as "GREAT"

As the "Toppling of the Statue" or the "Codpiece Stuffed Leader of the Free World Declares Mission Accomplished" day.

The enjoyable fact that one of the worst dictators of the last decades may eventually face human justice is overshadowed by the PR that will spin this into a justification of a most deplorable invasion.

The UN resolutions (on WMDs) never justified an invasion, that's why there was no Security Council agreement (or one by the majority of UN members). The lack of WMDs in Iraq and the obvious fabrication/hyping of "intelligence" clearly shows that this invasion was based on false pretenses.

Most atrocities comitted by SH and his regime took place when he was an ally of the West (and the SU as well, because he faught the Ayatollah). As well, calling this war a "humanitarian intervention" is a cruel joke on the thousands of Iraqis, civilians or military, and the hundreds of Americans that died during in this war.

And who cared for the suffering of the Iraqi people during the decade long sanctions? ANY proposal to end them were blocked either by the U.S. or the U.K. This was an invisible war, that also cost the lives of tens of thousands. No humanitarian intervention on this, ask Madeleine Albright.

"War on Terror", "WMDs" and "Humanitarian Invention" have become the cornerstones of propaganda that justifies U.S. and European imperialism nowadays. If there are no (political, military, economic) interests to be protected, or if the price is to high (fierce resistance to be met), no one will care which atrocities a regime commits, or at least no one will invade that country.

[nolabels]

58. No on both, just more lies

I like to try and square myself with what happened in the fact from as many as possible

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/371891.html
`And still, the Iraqis hate us'
By Nir Rosen
(snip)

The food was hastily brought and removed while the soldiers olive-skinned companion in civilian clothes was subjected to hateful stares because of the presumption that he was an Iraqi traitor working with the Americans.

I recently returned alone to see what the customers and staff thought of the American occupation. All the Sunni customers refused to talk except, but there was a table of Shias, the religious sect that suffered most under Saddam. "Truthfully, we thank America for the good service she did for us," said one of the young Shias. "America liberated the devout from Saddam. His companion added, "Saddam released thieves but executed the devout."

The restaurant staff had different opinions. An eager waiter lifted the sleeve of his manager's shirt to reveal a watch with Saddam's smiling visage on its face. The waiter kissed the watch. "Saddam was Iraqi," said the manager, "there was security and stability under Saddam." Another waiter complained, "America is the dirtiest of the dirty. They were worse than Saddam."

"Tikrit is like the Mason Dixon line," said a sergeant in the American special forces operating in the town from where Saddam and most of his regime's elite hailed. "The further west you go the more Arab it is, the further east you go the more Kurdish it is."
(snip)

Then if you really wonder why check this out

Take No Prisoners
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article5365.htm

[coralrf]

56. No I am not glad he is removed...

how is that answer to your RNC question? I am ashamed that my country cheery picked a patsy with an army of wimps to bomb the shit out of. I am ashamed of what seems a deterioration of American courage into GOP Rambo garbage at the expense of American lives. I am horrified at the number of cowards and chicken-hawks that think their foolish Conservatism is anything more than an extension of the tit sucking that kept them from facing a mans job in Viet Nam. I resent the fat white faces in suits that sent me off to war while they stayed home on got off on "The Ultimate Snuff Show" on TV.

I hate the conservative chicken to the point that it makes my bones ache. Go fight your own fucking wars. Send your snot nosed little spoiled brats 'over there' albeit the cowards would just shake prattle and hole the first time some shit came down.

If you did not fight ..shut the hell up!!!!!!!!!!!!

[conservdem]

61. Thank you for your service. Other than that, okay I will stop voicing my

opinon because I have not been to war. Should the people that agree with you that also have not been to war shut up to?

As to your comments about my children, f**** y***.

[coralrf]

53. Why should I be glad...

he was NEVER a threat to me.

[conservdem]

62. Another of your posts suggest you supported

our the use of force in Kosovo. Did you think that Kosovo posed a threat to you?

[wildwww2]

64. Saddam is a former Bu$h Inc. employee. What a perfect scapegoat for

a war crime. Saddam has been out of the equation for months now. And he was just a bowling pin that Bu$h Inc. set up so they could topple him down. But they had to do it sooner than they wanted to. Because of the news about Halliburton bilking the American taxpayers. They had to hunt them down now. Isn`t it funny that they used Saddams relatives to catch him and they have had a hell of a lot longer to use that tactic on Bin Laden`s family but have no results or progress report. Osama is laughing at Bu$h for being such a stupid opponet. Or will he be a rabbit that Bu$h can pull out of his hat before the election. Bu$h Inc. really did go after Saddam they just prolonged his capture. They have never shown any real effort to go after Osama just fluff. If they had wanted Osama. They never would have let John O`Neill die in the World Trade Center. And they did have the warnings and that is one of the things they are hiding besides Cheney`s energy meeting partners.
Peace
Wildman
Al Gore is My President

[Gloria]

37. A caller into the BBC today expressed the same thing...that to the

loyalists, he would now be a martyr.

And the other groups will now be fighting without the shadow of Saddam's return hanging over them... This incluces the civil service and army people who were jettisoned and are now unemployed...

And, of course, the outside groups coming into the country.

And the ordinary citizens who have lost loved ones because of the US invasion.....and the resentment because of the ruined public services along with the rape of the country by the US.

As on caller said, and Iraqi woman, Saddam is just one person. His capture does not erase what is going on now....

Imagine my shock to see a woman analyst in a quarter of the screen on CNN this morning talking about the other cells in Iraq and how the violence will not stop because of this...

I'm sure I won't see this woman on again....

[54anickel]

5. The determination of how and where is trial gets handled will be a

"hot potato" in itself. Didn't the Iraqi counsel recently complete their plans and details for the trials of "war criminals"? Shrub will certainly not let THAT happen, or will he?
Hmmm, that may be better than having Saddam on stage to spill the beans on US support and involvement through the years.
It will be interesting to see how this misadmin allows "justice" to unfold.

[UpInArms]

11. here's another related article

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=3988763

U.S. General Sees More Attacks Despite Capture

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - The capture of former President Saddam Hussein will not end attacks against U.S.- led forces in Iraq, the top U.S. general in Iraq said Sunday.

"We do not expect at this point in time that we will have a complete elimination of those attacks," Lieutenant-General Ricardo Sanchez told a news conference in Baghdad.

...more...

[54anickel]

13. Setting up the spin?

Oh my, we could be in for a "dizzying" few weeks ahead. Keep the Dramamine handy!

Increase in attacks - will they blame Saddam supporters retaliating for his capture or Muslim militants?

Perhaps we will see a headline, "Saddam supporters attack and aid in his escape"

on edit add:

Or the headline will claim he's been killed in an attempt to free him.
No trial for you today!

[leftchick]

8. Another analyst's view you won't see on msrnc....

<Toby Dodge, analyst at Warwick University and International Institute for Strategic Studies, UK:

"It's a huge coup and most Iraqis will be celebrating the capture of this tyrant. But it's not as clear-cut as that. The insurgency has grown well beyond Saddam's control or even influence. There are 15 to 30 groups that have no direct contact, financially or strategically, with Saddam Hussein.
His capture gives the United States a window of opportunity.

If they redouble their efforts and increase their troop commitment, they could contain or even roll back the
insurgency. But the temptation of Bush, facing a re-election campaign, will be to call this victory and cut and run. That would be a disaster for Iraq, for the Middle East and for the strategic interests of the United States in the region and beyond." >

[leesa]

31. So we murder more Iraqis which creates more "terrorists", etc., etc...

Good plan.

[underpants]

9. CNN scroll:Lt.Gen Sanchez does not expect attacks to diminish

That's what it said.

Well that didn't look like much of a command and control situation down in that hole. The attacks are coming in part from Saddam loyalists (what percentage) and this may or may not mean that the attacks will stop from them. Again, as Time stated several months ago many Iraqis weren't party to the attacks because it would make them appear to be loyal to Saddam, we'll see.

[qanda]

12. Someone asked a question at the press conference

Was Saddam really able to run the guerrilla operations from that hole in the ground?

[jonoboy]

14. remember how it was all going to stop when his sons were killed

[54anickel]

20. The only way attacks on our troops is going to stop is if our troops

aren't there anymore, period. Like that will ever be allowed to happen with all that oil at risk!

Even if the coalition would pull out, there will be violence and civil war for years. I truly believe that is inevidable and nothing can (or should IMHO) try to stop it. It is the "nature of the beast". Look to our own US history, how did we become a democracy? War is the ugly fact of humanity.

[underpants]

21. I remember that "Saddam's capture is merely weeks away"

Which it technically was....weeks but then the 20 century was just a matter of weeks too. :eyes:

Just like the "dead or Alive" OBL statement by W...he is either dead or alive everyone is.

Snotty nosed smart aleck immature word play from the office of the President that is what they have resorted to.

[snippy]

17. The capture of Saddam is good news for Iraqis and for democrats.

The Iraqi people are going to want their country back now. Bush won't like that. Democrats should side with the Iraqi people. Make Bush defend retaining control of Iraq.

Most Americans probably thought that Saddam would be killed or captured sooner or later. Rather than think that the capture of Saddam solves everything, they will be asking what happens now. Bush won't have an answer to that question until Turd Blossom Rove runs it through the focus groups.

Democrats should seize this opportunity to argue for turning the reconstruction of Iraq over to the UN. They need to emphasize the number of countries which have offered lots of troops and lots of money if the UN is in charge of the reconstruction. Democrats should stress that this is a wonderful opportunity to save American lives and money. There is no reason that the rebuilding has to be done by Americans. Make Bush defend the continued occupation and exploitation of Iraq and the costs to America in lives and money.

First it was about WMD.

Then it was about removing the evil dictator.

What will it be about now? Bush will look bad answering this question.

[conservdem]

19. This is GREAT news for Iraqis, dems, republicans--the World.

[snippy]

23. I agree that it is good news for everyone.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

36. Not great news for the American troops that will remain in-country...

...until the NeoCons establish their objectives, or the current combat units get replaced by more American troops.

When the violence continues, the NeoCons will no longer have the excuse that some of the Iraqis are fighting for Saddam.

Syria and Iran are next on the agenda...Syria will be first.

[snippy]

48. True. That's why it is important to make Bush defend retaining control.

[54anickel]

24. True. Certainly Shrub can't say it's about the oil, can he? n/t

[truth2power]

28. Joe Biden was on CBS

this morning saying "if the capture of SH results in the reelection of George Bush, so be it!" That's great, Joe. Why don't you just volunteer to work on the boy's campaign?

I guess that means there are no other reasons why the brat should not be reinstalled. I give up. even democrats continue to kiss his butt.

[lancdem]

29. At least he said "if"

[fishnfla]

18. The war is over, we won!

there is nothing more to see here, mission accomplished, move along folks.
4 more years!

[catmandu57]

22. You did what you came for...........Now get out

I don't know what excuse they'll use now, possibly the country and region falling apart without our military presense. I believe the civil war will begin now, the factions will be at each other and our troops will be right in the middle.
However, the country wouldn't or region wouldn't be falling apart if it weren't for us.

[Military Brat]

25. Saddam out = someone young and strong to take his place

Someone just waiting to sharpen his teeth on the flesh and bones of our troops.

Something smells very rotten in Iraq. Beware, beware.

[htuttle]

39. It seems obvious that Saddam was already isolated

I've had the feeling for months, and the conditions of his capture seem to reinforce my theory that after he left Baghdad, he didn't associate with many (or any) of the former Iraqi leadership.

For one thing, I think that Hussein didn't trust anyone left after the betrayal of Baghdad (if those stories are correct). I think he went to ground as completely as he could, and has remained there.

For the rest of the Ba'ath party, I think they found him to be a millstone around their necks - not to mention the fact that why would one continue to prop up somebody who might decide to purge you in the future if he got back in power? Those who rule by fear and largess don't keep loyal supporters when they lose the ability to create fear and provide largess. Saddam Hussein has been history since the fall of Baghdad. Once he lost his power structure, he lost the ability to get it back again.

So will the Ba'ath party find a way to regain title to representing secular Iraq? That is my curiousity at the moment. Other than them, the only other entity representiting a secular future are the US stooges on the IGC. In any case, Saddam Hussein getting full blame for the cruelty of his rule would be a gift horse to the Ba'ath party.

In an wierd, Hunter-S-Tompson-sort-of sense, Hussein was to the Ba'ath party as Nixon was to the Republicans (or Bush, as he will be seen years from now). Worse, actually, since Hussein was supported by a foreign power (that would be us), and led the country into a devastating war at their behest (that would be Iran).

That's where that younger and stronger person you mention comes along to lead the Ba'ath party in Iraq. No doubt, they've also been jostling for position since the fall of Baghdad, and the symbolic value of Hussein getting caught helps them as much as it appears to help Bush.

[ConcernedCanuk]

26. The "unrest" IS AGAINST THE INVADERS - Not FOR Saddam

. . And their are millions of Iraqi's that have lost loved ones at the hand of the USA

. . in fact, those that feared the "return" of Saddam will be bounding out of their holes, and concentrate with greater fury on their "new" tyrant, the USA

Just My Cynical Canuk Opinion

[Media_Lies_Daily]

27. "Major coup"? Only in the minds of people who think like Rove...

Unfortunately, we will very quickly discover that the ongoing attacks were not connected with Saddam in any way.

Alani is just another anti-Saddam Iraqi willing to say anything to please their new masters.

[JNelson6563]

30. Off topic UIA but

any clues at to what's happening in currencies on world markets since this news?

Julie

[progressivebydesign]

44. I have yet to see large crowds of celebration!

I saw a few, half-hearted, men with guns doing a little dance.. but their heart didn't seem to be in it. I saw other tiny groups of men, once again, with guns, shooting them in the air. But.. as with the infamous Statue farce, the camera was tight on this group of 10 guys, and it was not a crowd, by any means. I don't believe the majority of Iraqis were just waiting for us to capture Saddam, then life willbe groovy. No one wants to be occupied by people that just bombed the bejeesus out of you and destroyed your way of life! Saddam was ratted on my a family member... he was hiding in a hole.. he was not directing these ongoing attacks on our troops. To me, it would seem that things will get even uglier now...

Oddly enough, when I was working out today. The whole Saddam show was on the channels, and Bush speaking, etc. One guy looked up at one of the 6 t.v.s. Everyone else looked up and looked away.. until the football game came back on. I live in a pretty conservative, pro-military area, even these people think Bush isn't worth their time. He thinks he has a slam dunk on the election (that's why they captured Saddam on a Sunday morning... just in time for the news shows). I think he's completely mistaken. Once a putz, always a putz. The war is STILL wrong. Saddam is a bad dude, but he's not part of 9/11. And we still killed thousands of innocent Iraqis for what, exactly??? To keep Saddam from killing them first? What a fucked up world.

[Barrett808]

45. CNN/Wolf online poll: Will the capture help bring stability?

Running right around 50-50.

www.cnn.com/wolf

[warrior1]

47. freeped

.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

49. Yep...running 62-38 in the affirmative at this point.

[Skittles]

55. they thought the illegal invasion would bring stability

they were wrong then and they are wrong now

[neuvocat]

52. All that euphoria will evaporate

when the next attack makes for new casualties.

[Fovea]

57. After June

Saddam was, to use a favorite PNAC phrase, irrelevant.
It will prove a hollow trimuph.

We spend a lot of time talking about the Rove strategy for 2004. Part of that strategy has been to isolate America from the free world. When isolation turns to opposition, Americans will prove too 'lustig' for world domination, Karl. I would wager that 80% of Americans would be willing to do almost anything to get back the Clinton economy, even appologize to the French, if that would do it.

The rest of the world is not a potted plant. And they are already responding, to Gen. Mod. Foods, to steel tariffs, and currency warfare. We are really heading to a command economy folks. Get ready for it, learn to speak to your Calvinist ordained masters with respect, debased slaves. Get ready for the draft, and draft riots, and draft riot prison camps, for domestic 'terrorists'.

At some point the EU will make a public announcement to the American people that they *want* to help America, but will not help the Bush government. Most Americans now realize that Dubya was a dishonest actor on the international stage, wether they admit it or not.

If the rest of the world wanted to, how long would our economy stand against them?