Saudis consider sending troops to Iraq (Is this good or bad?)

[DuaneBidoux]

Saudi Arabia believes the Iraqi government is not up to the challenge and has told the United States that it is prepared to move its own forces into Iraq should the violence there degenerate into chaos, a senior U.S. official told NBC News on Tuesday.

<http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16656642/>

The military considers one of the worst case scenarios to be Saudi Arabia sending in soldiers for the Sunnis and Iran sending them in to protect the Shia and a conflagration of epic proportions resulting.

[enuffs_enuffs]

1. If the House of Saud is preping for hella-shitstorm...

Yeah, not a good time to be in the military... or of draft age.

[Mojambo]

2. Sounds like a real bad idea.

And a recipe for a MUCH wider conflict.

[applegrove]

3. Seems like the neocons no longer need 24 to fullfill their greatest fantacies.

[IndianaGreen]

4. This is good! This is Saudi Arabia saying that Iraq is in civil war

and that they won't allow the Shia to ethnically cleanse the Sunnis. It is also a public slap at Junior's bullshit surge.

My understanding is that Saudis won't be sending troops to Iraq, but will be supporting the Sunnis with whatever they need to defend themselves.

This also means that Turkey will step into the fray by going after separatist Kurds.

Bush's FUBAR, which was the invasion of Iraq, will get more FUBAR.

[rubberducky]

5. IMHO Before you commit youself to

"This is good", please remember that some of us have loved ones there. Not so good for them, I`m afraid.

[IndianaGreen]

9. Then get them out now!

I am an advocate of an immediate and unconditional withdrawal. The war was lost long ago. The only remaining issue is how many names do we want on a future Iraq war memorial?

[ninkasi]

25. I agree

Since this is a war that should never have been started, then the only option now is to get out. I can't even imagine the price the American public will pay for this fiasco, but we have invaded, occupied, and destroyed another country.

Bush is like the worst brat in the world, who deliberately smashes a priceless piece of art. When the world recoils in horror, he then turns defiantly, and demands that his accusers mend it. That's what he's doing now, with the Iraq mess. He broke it, and demands that somebody else fixes it.

My first act would be to force the companies which have profited from this misery, be taxed to restore it. Let's see how much Halliburton owes. Let Cheney donate the profits he's made from this unholy debacle.

[INDIA]

22. Uhhh...

I don't know how to put this without the message getting deleted....but that particular poster has stated in the past how she REALLY feels about military members. It wasn't pretty.

For you however, I hope a speedy and safe return for your loved ones! Maybe military assistance from other Arab states is a good thing? Time will tell.

:)

[GreenArrow]

7. the Saudis, the Shia, the Sunnis, Iraqis, the Turks, the Kurds...

don't forget Iran. How might Iran respond to such a scenario?

[IndianaGreen]

10. A better question: How will the Iraqi Shia respond if Bush and/or Israel attack Iran?

For those with family members or loved ones serving in Iraq, that should be the overriding concern!

[GreenArrow]

15. kind of related questions I guess

and the answer doesn't look good from any angle. I have to wonder if the proposed Saudi action is yet another ruse to provoke Iran, or if they will simply let their Iraqi surrogates do the dirty work.

My sympathies are with the human family in this one.

[medeak]

16. Iran and Saudis are both Sunni..

[GreenArrow]

19. no, Iran is predominately Shia

"A large portion of the world's Shia live in the Middle East. They constitute a majority in Azerbaijan, Iraq, Bahrain and especially Iran, where 90% of the population is Shia, giving it the highest population of Shia Muslims of any country in the world <3>. In Lebanon Shia form a plurality, and they remain as significant minorities in Afghanistan, Syria, Pakistan, Turkey and Yemen. Among the smaller Persian Gulf states, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates also have significant Shia minorities, as does the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shi'a_Islam

The Saudis are predominately Sunni.

"Shia are a minority in Saudi Arabia, probably constituting about 5 percent of the total population, their number being estimated from a low of 200,000 to as many as 400,000. Shia are concentrated primarily in the Eastern Province, where they constituted perhaps 33 percent of the population, being concentrated in the oases of Qatif and Al Ahsa."

http://www.country-studies.com/saudi-arabia/shia.html

[medeak]

20. oops...you are so totally right...had a menapausal moment! n/t

[GreenArrow]

24. don't sweat it

:)

[happyslug]

6. The house of Saud and Iran already divided up Iraq?

The Sunnis (under Saudi control) control Baghdad and the Sunni triangle, while the Shiite (controlled by Iran) controls Barsa and southern Oil field (And probably the Shiite slums of Baghdad). Some fighting in the middle of Iraq but a clear demarcation of the two sides.

The other alternatives, The House of Saud believes it has to move in to protect the Sunnis and Baghdad for once Iran withstands a full US Assault, the US forces will be so weaken that the Shiite of Iraq will be able to drive the Americans out. This is Especially true if the oil from the Persian Gulf is cut off, which Iran may be able to do and if kept closed for six months. If the oil form the Mid-east is cut off for six months or so, the rest of the world run out of oil. As the US runs out of oil the US will have to deal or withdraw.

Remember Bush is counting on being able to attack Iran and prevent Iran from cutting off oil from the Persian Gulf. Iran has the easier job here, just keep the Gulf closed, by whatever means possible for six months. US and Europe Strategic Reserves is only 90 days, which can be Stretched for another r60 days, but no way the US will not be hurting after six months, hurting to the degree that the US will have to cut back military operations do to lack of oil.

The US may be able to keep the oil flowing, but that will be the true battle in the war with Iran, not what the US hits when the war starts.

[Warren Stupidity]

8. Part of the next phase: general regional conflict.

This was floated late last year. The Saudis let it be known that they would not allow open slaughter of the sunnis in Iraq. It was a public veto of the 'tilt shiite' option.

However at the time I think that the consensus here was that the saudi army, while massively well equipped, is not very likely to actually show up to fight anyone anywhere, including in Saudi Arabia itself.

So when the Saudis say that they would consider sending troops, it is obviously a bit of a joke on their part. They've already sent troops, that would be our troops, and they are just warning us that we should behave ourselves with respect to the sunnis in Iraq.

[fooj]

11. Col. Jack Jacobs says this is horrible news.

"If we think the American's are being shot at NOW...wait until the Saudi's get there."

[IndianaGreen]

13. Col. Jacobs supports the surge

These military geniuses that think that Iraq is still salvageable, sound more like those idiots that thought we could have won the war in Vietnam if the military hadn't been "restrained."

Too much testosterone and male egos at play in here!

[fooj]

14. He does?

That isn't the impression that I got. Maybe I need to listen closer...

[shoopnyc]

12. Hardcore Sunni's against a Shia population. Great.

[medeak]

17. Saudis have troops? LOL...then we can close our posts there!

Why the hell have we been protecting them all these years then?

[superconnected]

18. It could only be for financial reasons, they are no more trustable

than bushco.

It's bad. It has to be.

If you want humanitarian effort, send the world peace org and the red cross. Another army is not going to help. (and yeah I know our red cross is entirely too red).

[superconnected]

21. Hey maybe it complicates bushs involvement and takes the responsibility for iraq

off of him, thus helping the republicans not look so bad in the next election.

Whatever it is, it's not good. Saudi gov no better than buscho.

[Dean Martin]

23. Get us out

Get our troops out first and I don't care what the hell Saudi Arabia does. But get us out NOW.

[qwlauren35]

29. I agree.

Given that the Sunni are a minority, I have no doubt that having the Saudis back them will be a mess. I'm not happy about the possibility of full-scale Middle East conflict, but I'd rather see them work it out among themselves than have us stay there trying to play Band-Aid.

And given that Iraq is already divided culturally, I'm not sure why it would be so bad if each culture was absorbed into a country that shared that culture. I would simply hope that Turkey will support and protect the Kurds, while Iran and Saudi stabilize the Shi'ite and Sunni factions.

[Igel]

26. Indeterminate.

It rather depends on the quality of the troops, where they would be deployed, and what they do when they're there.

Quality's likely to be low (making it more of a wild card); they'd probably be deployed in Sunni dominant areas, in Anbar and a couple of other western provinces. Now, what they did there would be the question: Would they do the communal thing and persecute Shi'a, would they launch raids into Shi'a-majority territory to attack militias or do ethnic cleansing (in newly Shi'a-majority territory or with a majority of longer standing)? Would they sit there and wait to repel Shi'a raids?

To many possibilities to even list them all, so many that to decide whether it's good or bad is really to allow one's assumptions to be the verdict.

[bemildred]

27. So, what is the attitude of the US military about this?

Does the attitude of the US military matter any more in Iraq?
Sounds like a looming power vacuum, with various parties planning to rush in to fill the gap.

[Az_lefty]

28. Arab nations should have been part of the coalition to start with...

this shit is taking place right in their own backyard. They (Saudi, Egypt, Jordan, etc) should be taking ownership of this so we can get the hell out.