Capture to Give Big Lift to Bush, Analysts Say (NYTimes)

[Dudley_DUright]

How big a political lift will President Bush derive from the capture of Saddam Hussein?

Very big indeed, said several political scientists, who used words like "huge," "enormous" and "profound."

Some said that for now it appeared to supply a daunting lead to Mr. Bush's re-election campaign, although all added caveats about the possibility of other vote-swaying developments between now and the November election. Among the events cited as possibilities to move public opinion were a devastating new terror attack, unabated violence in Iraq or a new economic slowdown.

"My first reaction was, you might as well call off the election," said Prof. Allan J. Lichtman, a historian at American University and the author of "Keys to the White House," in which he sets out 13 predictors of the likely outcome of presidential elections.

Don't give Bush any ideas Lichtman! :eyes:

more...

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/14/international/middleeast/14CND-POLI.html?hp

[MrTriumph]

1. Another blow-hard expert

The opinion from another talking head. No big deal. That the U.S. military captured SH is no surprise.

The fact this misadventure cost the U.S. over $150 Billion will not play well next Nov.

[The Zanti Regent]

17. More lies from the SCREW YORK TIMES

Once again, the Screw York Times lies to you. From Day 1, the Screw York Times has competed with the WHORESHINGTON POST to be Bush's biggest asskisser.

Take a look how Bob Somersby has documented the Press Whoring in http://www.dailyhowler.com/

They have too much riding on the AWOL's election, all those media consolidation events, for example.

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. Yes he will get one

but it will not be long lasting... and sooner or later the revolt
\will hand Bush a serious problem, more US Casualties and not the one or two per day, but a chinook like incident or worst

No, I am not hoping for this, I know it will happen.

Well at that point who is Bush going to blame? Sadamn? Wait he is in OUR custody...

So this will be good for bush short term, but not long term

[moosedog]

4. The gloating will still be going on when...

They lose their jobs and have no more rights etc. I'm telling you....a lot of people just don't get it. We need to think about who is our monster here.

[Frodo]

6. It's a scientific exercise.

Just putting on my tinfoil hat to play with the conspiracy theorists... but here's a thought:

They need to produce OBL just before the election next year, but they need to figure out how big a bounce they will get and how long it will last so they can predict how far out they can produce him (ideally during our convention, or near a major debate) without it looking too planned. You can't "poll" these types of things, so they run a test case. OBL will be bigger.

They only have the one more trump card and need to see what we're holding.

[soothsayer]

3. good, lift him up and drop him hard

on a pretzel

like when the israelis kicked him into submission

drop him like he dropped barney

drop him like a bad habit

just drop his sorry ass

(preferably in prison)

freakin criminal slimebag

[are_we_united_yet]

8. So you don't like him either?

:)

[Fovea]

5. I seriously doubt

that Bush will get a long lasting bump from this. Tommorrow the news from Iraq will be dismal again, the economy will be obviously lied about again, PATRIOT act II will be debated again, and another screw the average Joe and Jane proposal will waft up from the cesspool of the House of Representitives.

Tomorrow the Black Box Voting scheme will be one day closer to meltdown, the so called energy policy will collide with more subpeona demands, and another Republican conservative will look at Bush as a traitor to the real cause.

Rummy, Perle, and Wolfy will be one day closer to the Hague, and John Ashcroft will say something that suggests that he has gone off his meds again.

[mbperrin]

7. Great! SH captured, war over, go home.

All troops can be pulled out now that we've accomplished our goal of finding wmds (no that wasn't it), preventing a terrorist attack (no that wasn't it) removing SH from power! Yes, that's it!

Welcome home, troops! A grateful nation salutes you!

And no more need for Bush* in the White House - all problems solved, he's done all he can do. Goodbye and enjoy Crawford!

[are_we_united_yet]

9. Oh. One can only dream about hitting the lottery!

[muchacho]

10. so what

It's time for the Dems candidates to make the "Yeah, it's great...but so what?" point.

[snippy]

11. Bush will get a temporary bounce but it won't last.

Everyone I know, whether liberal democrat, conservative republican, KKKreeper, shittohead, or apolitical type, has always assumed that we would either kill or capture Saddam sooner or later. When you assume that something is likely to occur, its occurrence has little or no effect on your opinion.

Those who worship the LordGodBush and savor the flavor of republican feces will continue to do so. Those who despise Bush will continue to do so. Bush's election prospects will not change a bit among these two groups.

Those who have fluctuating opinions of Bush will give him a bounce in the polls. But these people soon will be asking what happens now. And if American troops continue to be attacked, they will be asking why Americans are still dying in Iraq. Bush will have no new answers to these questions.

It is true that Bush may have been hurt if Saddam still was at large next November. But I doubt that a single vote will have changed come November because of the capture of Saddam. The economy and the casualty count in Iraq will be much, much, much more important in the election than Saddam's capture.

[PurityOfEssence]

16. Uh-yup

The card's been played. There had better be a huge rally in the stock market tomorrow (triple digits) and a whopper bounce in Junior's approval (double digits) for this to not be just another momentary spike. Even then, it'll still be temporary; it'll just be a question of the timetable. This thing doesn't have legs. (Hell, we SHOULD have gotten this schmuck 8 months ago; we're just fixing a fuckup.)

Now the insurgency will be less explainable, and that'll further call into quetion the vaunted correctness of the Bushies. The insurgents have all lost a huge impediment to recruitment, too: there's no way it can be assumed that the Bogeyman will return.

There's no competition tyrant for the locals to hate; they can direct their full fury at us. What a mess.

I'm listening very carefully to the pundits and media hos; the latter keep asking leading questions (like Paula Zahn's breathless hope that it will make Junior invulnerable) and painting non-committally rosy pictures, and the former are all being evasive, qualified and pessimistic.

[TomNickell]

18. Anti-climactic?

It's kind of a let-down.

Just this dirty, tired old man growing an awful bead and hiding in a shack with two employees.

[FreakinDJ]

12. I think we are going to hear from the Moms

Like the woman next door. All happy and dancing around washing her car. I think she is getting ready to go pick up her son from the airport.

You see he is now serving in Iraq

When reality hits and these people see the the insurgency what ever you want to call it is not over, and our troops have to stay there You are going to see a very vocal uprising.

Not from political opponents and but from the average Mom and Pop wanting their son to come home. You can't buy publicity like that. It will be real, heart felt, and devistating to Bushit

[joeybee12]

13. So, is American Univ. even an accredited college? Probably not with

such an idiot on their staff.

[TomNickell]

15. It's actually a pretty good college. But,

clearly they have hired a few idiots over the years.

Probably has tenure.

[TomNickell]

14. BS blown back from the height of media Bush Worship.

Sometime the journalists can still amaze me. What a lazy dumb-ass piece of political reporting.

<<Among the events cited as possibilities to move public opinion were a devastating new terror attack, unabated violence in Iraq or a new economic slowdown.>>

"Unabated violence in Iraq"??? And -who- thinks that the capture of this beaten old man hiding in a hole under a rundown shack is going to 'abate' the violence in Iraq?

AAARGH!