STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday December 15....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Monday December 15, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 406
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 000
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 3 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 55 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 267
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 751
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 12, 2003

Dow... 10,042.16 +34.00 (+0.34%)
Nasdaq... 1,949.00 +6.68 (+0.34%)
S&P 500... 1,074.14 +2.93 (+0.27%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.24% +0.00 (+0.09%)
Gold future... 410.10 +4.70 (+1.16%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[JNelson6563]

1. Only got a sec....

Mornin' Ozy and all fellow Marketeers! :hi:

Well, it's certainly looking like a stellar day on the Street! (BTW Ozy--haha Great Toon!!) Thank Goddess our troubles are over!! ;-)

Before the week is out me thinks reality will set back in.

I've noted Oil up and dollar not rallying as expected. Interesting.

More later, gotta start waking people up around here.

Julie

[ozymandius]

5. Good morning Julie and all!

It really will be amazing to see how the capture of Hussein will be parlayed into higher durable goods sales, more homes being bought and cash rushing stateside from foreign investors. I grit my teeth while I write this.

The textbook definition of a speculative bubble as described in today's WrapUp dovetails wonderfully with this weekend's turn of events. If one were to apply the effect of the recent Northeaster to the markets - it would make perfect sense to say that markets will rise because the sun came out. It's just another excuse to bleed speculative cash from investors more inclined to act on adrenaline rushes than rational thought.

[ozymandius]

2. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
"The Speculative Episode"

The following text is a quote from the book A Short History of Financial Euphoria by John Kenneth Galbraith. I found this material to be very fitting and for that reason I wanted to share it with you.

“Anyone taken as an individual is tolerably sensible and reasonable…as a member of a crowd, he at once becomes a blockhead.” …Friedrich Von Schiller, As quoted by Bernard Baruch

That the free-enterprise economy is given to recurrent episodes of speculation will be agreed. These--great events and small, involving bank notes, securities, real estate, art and other assets or objects--are, over the years and centuries, part of history. What have not been sufficiently analyzed are the features common to these episodes, the things that signal their certain return and have thus the considerable practical value of aiding understanding and prediction. Regulation and more orthodox economic knowledge are not what protect the individual and the financial institution when euphoria returns, leading on as it does to wonder at the increase in values and wealth, to the rush to participate that drives up prices, and to the eventual crash and its sullen and painful aftermath. There is protection only in a clear perception of the characteristics common to these flights into what must conservatively be described as mass insanity. Only then is the investor warned and saved.

<cut>

Strongly reinforcing the vested interest in euphoria is the condemnation that the reputable public and financial opinion directs at those who express doubt or dissent. It is said that they are unable, because of defective imagination or other mental inadequacy, to grasp the new and rewarding circumstances that sustain and secure the increase in values. Or their motivation is deeply suspect. In the winter of 1929, Paul M. Warburg, the most respected banker of his time and one of the founding parents of the Federal Reserve System, spoke critically of the then-current orgy of “unrestrained speculation” and said that if it continued, there would ultimately be a disastrous collapse, and the country would face a serious depression. The reaction to his statement was bitter, even vicious. He was held to be obsolete in his view; he was “sandbagging American prosperity”; quite possibly, he was himself short in the market. There was more than a shadow of anti-Semitism in this response.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Systematic Chaos]

3. Looks like the Euro couldn't care less about Saddam

I see that while it's zig-zagging on the graph early, the trend is still down, down, down for the dollar.

I'm off to bed everyone. I'll check back after 9:30 PST when I get up for work.

[ze_dscherman]

15. Reuters: Saddam Arrest Helps Dollar -- for a While

SNIP

The dollar faces a key data challenge in the U.S. session, when the U.S. Treasury Department releases October capital flows figures.

Concerns over the sustainability of the U.S. current account gap mean flows in and out of U.S. assets have become a key focus for currency traders and could further limit the scope of the post-Saddam dollar bounce should they disappoint markets.

Last month's data showed foreigners steeply pared their buying of Treasuries and sold U.S. stocks in September, news of which sent the dollar reeling at the time.

"Another bad number could be detrimental to the dollar," said Kamal Sharma, currency strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein.

http://news.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=3992334

[dbt]

4. Stock market surges into the Brave New Year?

In my mind, another piece of the Saddam Capture puzzle falls into place. Confidence in the Regime has now been restored and any speculation that recent economic numbers have been cooked effectively vanishes from the radar, no?

Wouldn'tcha like to own a piece of Halliburton or GE right about now?

Note to all fellow lurkers: This daily thread will become more important than it already is (which is considerable!) in the next few weeks. Pay attention.

Extra kudos to all who undertake this project every trading day!

:toast:
dbt

[ozymandius]

6. Thanks dbt. Speaking of basic economic numbers...

Economic fundamentals still in the ascendant

The capture of Saddam Hussein (news - web sites) is a welcome early Christmas present for President Bush (news - web sites) and his allies but aside from any initial euphoria, reaction to the news from investors around the world is likely to be more muted.

Prospects for markets over the next few months will be influenced by much more fundamental economic factors: the sustainability of the recovery in economic activity, weakness in the dollar and the outlook for interest rates.

In March of this year, nervousness about the conflict in Iraq (news - web sites) pulled global equity markets back towards the seven-year lows which they had reached in the previous October. However, following the early end to the conflict, equity markets made significant gains with the FTSE World index increasing by more than 40 per cent as recovery in the global economy continued to gain momentum.

<cut>
However, as a result of this stronger than expected recovery, the Fed has already started to signal a shift in its intention to keep interest rates low for a considerable period. Some analysts believe that the first upward move for US rates could come as early as the second quarter of next year. The Bank of England has already started to move UK interest rates upwards and currently only the European Central Bank is free from pressure to tighten monetary policy. The future direction of interest rates is unmistakable and equity markets are likely to experience selling pressures once the rate tightening cycle begins in earnest.

more...

[ozymandius]

7. Treasuries Slip as Data Downplayed

CHICAGO (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices ended mostly lower on Friday as gains from surprisingly weak consumer sentiment gave way to pre-weekend book-squaring.

The stock market managed an impressive weekly close, with the Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI - news) above 10,000 points. That put pressure on bonds once early support from the University of Michigan's December sentiment survey faded.

The closely watched Michigan index fell unexpectedly to 89.6 from 93.7, confounding forecasts for a jump to 96.0.

<cut>
"We see no reason to change our view that the first Fed tightening will be around mid-2004," Banc One economists said in a report. "Dollar weakness is one of the factors that bolster our confidence that the Fed needs to act next year."

more...

[JNelson6563]

8. I disagree with that assessment

If the Fed tightens it will have to be Jan or Feb so as to avoid charges of political motivations. Simple as that.

To wait until June or so will set off howls of partisanship etc. regadless of how credible such claims may be. Greenman knows this.

Julie

[ozymandius]

10. Agreed. Thanks Julie. I missed that.

Since you bring this up, I recall a quote last week from one of the Fed members that rates would need to be adjusted early in the year precisely for this reason (and others).

[ozymandius]

9. I hope you have a great day!

I am away for the remainder of the day. Work needs to be finished and many phone calls need to be made.

I hope the day's irrational events will not weigh heavily on your psyche. After all, it will correct itself eventually. I try to see this runup as a prelude to a great "rational" descent that will aid in Bush's ouster. Since our system pretends to encourage investment based on past profit margins suggesting future performance then I regard much of what we have seen in the stock averages' rise as nothing more than hot air and unsustainable profiting from layoffs and cooked books. A "rational" descent is due.

Thanks to the housing and mortgage industry for bolstering sales of durable goods. These are numbers that we can count on. But if any company is posting profits by spending less (on payroll) then that company's days are numbered. Downsizing will finally cut away at payroll until there's nothing left to cut. Ergo - no profits to show.

I don't know why my mind is focusing on these issues this morning. Perhaps it is because of announced layoffs of several thousand people last week and the subsequent rise in the respective companies' value. Or, perhaps it has something to do with me casting my lot back into the job market. Either way, we are living through times that require sober thought more than wishful thinking.

Ozy

[JNelson6563]

12. I give it a day, maybe two

This is a vulture rally. They are screaming "Buy!! Buy!! Buy!!" and the lemmings comply. As the attacks continue and jobless claims rise and the dollar remains weak and gold remains strong and, well I could go on and on.....

The wolves will set this rally up and scoop up plenty o' profits.

Leave us not forget the nature of the prisoner we've got. Former business partner of Poppy Bush.....he's got lots of songs to sing....he'll drop off the radar in somewhat before he starts singing.

Rational thinking is our forte' in this thread. Plus we've got a Seer. ;-)

Have a good and prosperous day Ozy.

Julie

[radfringe]

11. Saddam and the euros...

I was in the middle of wrapping gifts yesterday, had the tube on and heard the report that Saddam had $100,000 in US dollars on him

my partner yells out to me - "how stupid is that - to hide in a hole with $100,000 in your pocket??"

I yelled back - "yeah, pretty stupid, he should have converted to the Euro before ducking into the hole - they are worth more..." :evilgrin:

[JNelson6563]

13. not to mention

how powerless he was. Obviously not orchestrating anything. He was not threat to us when the war began and he was certainly in no condition to be a threat to anyone when they "got 'im".

I wonder when we'll hear about that one guy again, whatshisname...? That guy that hates America and that hwole 9/11 thing, ah yes, Osama bin Laden. Wonder when we'll get him? I mean, he IS an actual dangerous person.

Ah well. Too busy worshipping our Dear Leader right now. We'll deal with troublesome facts later. ;-)

Julie

[Tinoire]

17. Dollars? Here's some guy pushing OPEC to the Euro

switching Iraq to the Euro and he got caught with US dollars? Yeah right... Right there you can smell a huge rat.

[aquart]

26. No. The currency that makes sense in Iraq now is the dollar.

He was using the money to keep himself alive in Iraq.

[Maeve]

14. Today's market looks so predictable....

That I'd phone it in if I didn't have a cable modem :crazy:

Look for some major profit-taking by afternoon--I can't believe the savvy will leave the sheep unfleeced.

[JNelson6563]

16. Yep, big glut on the fleece market soon

haha

In a bit I head out to prop up the economy a bit. I'm way behind on Christmas shopping (yes even us heathens partake in the pagan celebrations ;-) ). Will be checking in but, as you say Maeve, looks pretty predictable.

Julie

[Maeve]

18. I've got to do the economy prop thing, too

Get downtown for a final Christmas shop at what was once The Store in Columbus (sniff, sigh) Futures are sliding a bit from their highs (expected) and we have a manufacturing coming in any time now that might influence the day...

[Maeve]

19. New York factory activity fell a bit in December

CBSA Marketwatch
New York factory activity off record highs in Dec. By Greg Robb
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Business conditions at manufacturers in the New York region cooled a bit in December, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said. The Empire State Index fell to 37.4 in December from a record 41.0 in November. Despite the decline, this is still the eight consecutive month that the index has been positive, a sign of expanding activity. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists was for the index to slip to 37.0. New orders fell to 31.2 in December from 40.5 in November. Shipments rose to a record 39.3 from 36.7 in the previous month. The number of employees rose to 11.5 in December from 9.3 in November. The average workweek rose to 16.0 in December from to 12.3 in November

[UpInArms]

20. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.86 Change +0.37 (+0.42%)

all of the discussion that preceded this posting today shows remarkable clarity regarding reality.

I am so pleased to be among a group of people that understand the difference between fantasy and reality.

The "upward bounced" has proven that gravity still applies.

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[JNelson6563]

25. Believe me UIA

We're the ones who are lucky to have you among us. You rock.

Julie

[Don_G]

21. Hussain's Capture Was Strictly PR

From Regan's book to make Americans feel good about themselves.

Who cares that jobs are being shipped overseas in record numbers to support the latest "numbers" on the Street? Greenspam is doing his best to hide the figures so investors don't lose faith in Wall Street and stick Dimbo with another "1929 Disaster."

[Maeve]

22. Article from Sunday--"At Recovery's Dawn"

Behind the Numbers and the Euphemisms Lie Some Messy Realities
<snip>As the year comes to an end, these are the facts about the recovering economy: The unemployment rate in November was back below 6 percent after hitting a high of 6.4 percent in June. The number of people working is on the rise -- 138.6 million in November, up from 137.5 million in January. The number of jobs is on the rise, as well -- up 328,000 since July. "The American economy is strong" was President Bush's reaction last week when the November employment figures were released, "and it is getting stronger."

But just as "sparkle" can be a euphemism for housekeeping, "recovering" can gloss over the reality of what for millions of Americans having a job has come to mean.

More people are working part time than ever: Last month, for the first time, the number exceeded 25 million.

More are classified as "involuntary" part-time, meaning they would rather be working full time: 4.9 million in November, an increase of 600,000 from a year ago and 1.6 million since the recession began in March 2001.

More are working for less pay than they have worked for in the past -- the sectors of the economy adding jobs pay an average of $14.65 an hour, while those discarding jobs pay $16.92, according to an analysis by the Economic Policy Institute, a Washington research center.
<much more>

[Sir_Shrek]

23. NY State report out today as well

Supposed to be better than expected, but I have no idea what that means.

[DUreader]

24. Hey Marketeers, I just Awoke from a Market Dream

In My Dream a Barrick Spokesman was Warning that everything but

gold was going to go Down today.

I don't have a record of dreams like this so I will not be advising

anyone to bet for or against it.

This will be my first market dream test

[JNelson6563]

27. In a period longer than a day

I'd lay money on that dream-test. I've been sayin' it since last summer when we were just goin' over 350 (or so) "gold looks good" and "gold looks safe" and stuff like that there. :-)

Well the cheerleading is of course shameless and blatant. I don't know why European markets did so well, it's not like their gettin' a share of the booty. Or maybe Baker's over there makin' 'em promises Team Bush wouldn't want the public to know about. Heaven forbid the we-hate-everyone-but-America crowd (his base) find out we give quarter to traitorous "old Europe". haha You know Baker's over htere with plenty of largesse to spread around, on the sly. ;-)

Headin' out now, will check back in a bit.

Julie

[DUreader]

51. Dureader's Market Dream Proves Prophetic

I'll be sure to let you know if I have any more like this

[scisyhp]

54. Wow. That was impressive.

If I didn't see your post this morning I would have thought that
you are rigging DU system. That was not an easy one to guess.
Looks like every rally is now treated as an opportunity to sell
by the smart money.

[DUreader]

55. Heh, when I woke up from the dream I thought

No way, this wont pan out, there has got to be some Osaddama bounce


Too bad I'm not an investor

[Maeve]

28. Starting on a high note

E above high C, I think....
Dow 10,134.38 +92.22 (+0.92%)
Nasdaq 1,974.88 +25.88 (+1.33%)
S&P 500 1,082.82 +8.68 (+0.81%)
10-Yr Bond 4.266% +0.024

[Sir_Shrek]

29. I'm not sure we'll see it hold....

But I think we'll still be positive today.....I don't think there's enough fundamentally good news to justify any major gains yet. I'll say high double digits (80-99 points).

[Maeve]

30. 10:13 and some weakening

Dow 10,096.83 +54.67 (+0.54%)
Nasdaq 1,960.64 +11.64 (+0.60%)
S&P 500 1,078.18 +4.04 (+0.38%)
10-Yr Bond 4.270% +0.028

Later, DUdes and DUdettes!

[JNelson6563]

31. 11:03 and looking ok

but not the wild orgy that was predicted:


Dow 10,107.04 +64.88 (+0.65%)
Nasdaq 1,958.70 +9.70 (+0.50%)
S&P 500 1,078.52 +4.39 (+0.41%)
10-Yr Bond 4.276% +0.034

$$ leaving Treasuries.

Julie

[Paulie]

32. * conference at 11:15est

Here's the numbers at 11:11est:

Dow 10,104.08 +61.92 (+0.62%)
Nasdaq 1,956.36 +7.36 (+0.38%)
S&P 500 1,077.86 +3.72 (+0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 4.270% +0.028


A test for the "Pie Hole Effect"

[UpInArms]

36. 1:36 pm EST update

Dow 10,082.75 +40.59 (+0.40%)
Nasdaq 1,941.43 -7.57 (-0.39%)
S&P 500 1,075.50 +1.36 (+0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.258% +0.016

[Coventina]

33. The "I Ching" on today's market

Hello everyone!

Today's reading is an interesting one: LIBERATION, with no changing lines. Ching is very upbeat: "Persons and problems that have consistently stood in the way of business endeavors can now be bypassed. Many of your past difficulties should resolve themselves with ease, providing you with a profound sense of relief. Let them go and do not seek retribution. Your concern should lie in returning your affairs to their regular and intended patterns."

I think Ching is talking to the Iraqi people here. Somehow I don't Ching's thought is bent on our (relatively) petty market concerns! ;-)
The question is, how do I get my reading to the Iraqis?

Should be an up day. I don't see Bushco allowing it to be anything but.

:hi: Have a good day everyone!

[54anickel]

34. What does it mean when the Fed adds temporary reserves to the banking

system?

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2003/12/15/rtr1180968.html

NEW YORK, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Monday it added temporary reserves to the banking system through 24-day and overnight system repurchase agreements.

The 24-day day system repurchase agreements added $4.0 billion to the banking system, the Fed said.

Fed funds were trading at 1.063 percent at the time of the operations, above the Fed's 1.0 percent target for the rate.

[UpInArms]

35. repurchase agreements

are also called "repos" and they are the vehicles that are used to finance the debt.

To see a fairly comprehensive listing of these, you can go here:

http://www.321gold.com/fed/temp_bank_res.html

and the current dollar index stands thusly

Last trade 88.37 Change -0.12 (-0.14%)

[ozymandius]

37. 2:10 and Nasdaq in the red

Dow 10,082.75 +40.59 (+0.40%)
Nasdaq 1,942.10 -6.90 (-0.35%)
S&P 500 1,075.30 +1.17 (+0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.284% +0.042

[htuttle]

38. That's not supposed to happen today!

I mean, We Got Saddam™ !

[ozymandius]

39. delayed pie-hole effect

3:10
Dow 10,063.27 +21.11 (+0.21%)
Nasdaq 1,938.71 -10.29 (-0.53%)
S&P 500 1,072.86 -1.27 (-0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.282% +0.040

[ozymandius]

40. 3:31 - pluses continue to slide, red gets redder

Dow 10,055.19 +13.03 (+0.13%)
Nasdaq 1,932.58 -16.42 (-0.84%)
S&P 500 1,071.55 -2.58 (-0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 4.275% +0.033

[JNelson6563]

42. and redder....

Hard to believe considering we have caught the one man who is responsible for all the world's ills....

3:55

DJIA 10,035.86 -6.30 -0.06%

Nasdaq 1,923.33 -25.67 -1.32%

S&P 500 1,069.30 -4.84 -0.45%

Dow Util 254.61 +0.36 +0.14%

NYSE 6,176.11 -20.18 -0.33%

AMEX 1,119.89 -6.32 -0.56%

Russell 2000 537.50 -10.09 -1.84%

Semcond 483.53 -12.62 -2.54%

Gold future 409.90 +0.20 +0.05%

30-Year Bond 5.10% +0.02 +0.29%

10-Year Bond 4.28% +0.03 +0.78%

Interesting, no?

Julie

[Timefortruth]

41. What's going on with the market?

Did they find out about the value of the dollar? The Federal debt? Don't they know we had some feel-good news that is unrelated to stocks today?

[JNelson6563]

44. Reality

Facts can be inconvenient things. ;-)

Julie

[Maeve]

45. Profits, on the other hand, are VERY convenient!

Anyone for a lemming-fur coat?

[JNelson6563]

52. haha like we said this morning

and I mean just like we said this morning.

heh heh

Julie

[nixonwasbetterthanW]

43. saddam "bounce" goes dead-cat in six hours

in the red double digits with five minutes to go in the trading day ... what a bust.

[Cocoa]

46. I actually hope it ends exactly at zero

just for the symbolism. :-)

[Maeve]

47. Final numbers for the day

Dow 10,022.82 -19.34 (-0.19%)
Nasdaq 1,918.26 -30.74 (-1.58%)
S&P 500 1,068.04 -6.10 (-0.57%)
10-Yr Bond 4.275% +0.033

[Cocoa]

48. I can't find a news story on this

all of the stories on Google news are several hours out of date, they seemed to have lost interest when it started going down.

Strange, I thought people that follow the markets liked up-to-the-minute info, and yet I can't find any. :shrug:

[mrsteve]

49. Closing numbers

Hello everybody! Had to fight a traffic ticket downtown this morning, and start my Christmas shopping (yeah, I'm a guy...if I had 2 more weeks to procrastinate I would). This is the first time I've been able to log on today.

Looks like I didn't miss much - the pundit promised "Saddam Bonus" in stocks turns into the "Tikrit Dead Cat Bounce". At the end of the day:

Dow 10,022.82 -19.34 (-0.19%)
Nasdaq 1,918.26 -30.74 (-1.58%)
S&P 500 1,068.04 -6.10 (-0.57%)
10-Yr Bond 4.275% +0.033

with a bit of cash moving out of the treasuries too. Hmmm.

[tsipple]

50. Watch the Pundits Spin

Do they ever get it correct?

[JNelson6563]

53. only when things go up

cause they're cheerleaders.

I'm listening to the shameless schills as I type. :-)

Julie

[GaryL]

56. Well what the bleep happened!!??

I was all ready to dump some of my crappier assets with the run up of the market all the gushing heads from yesterday were proclaiming. Wasn't the capture of Saddam supposed to cure all the world's woes (including the economy)? Guess not.

[Robbien]

57. You were too slow

Too many profit takers were quick off the mark this morning and the gullible buyers couldn't keep up with the sellors. Need to be fast in this game as there seem to be a bit fewer marks these days.

[spotbird]

58. Does anyone think Bush wants a cheap dollar?

I saw that comment on a news show. I missed why it would be good except that it does punish countries who didn't support him.

What do you think?

[snippy]

59. Bush definitely wants a cheap dollar.

He and Snow have talked it down many times in the last several months.

[Snellius]

60. Funny how the FOX reporter explained why no Saddam bounce

She said it was because the market must have taken Bush at his word that he was going to find Saddam and find the WMDs and had already taken it into account. What was even more astonishing is that she had a perfectly straight face. She actually believed it.

[htuttle]

61. It's doublethink

Let's ask O'Brien:

Doublethink means the power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one's mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them. The Party intellectual knows in which direction his memories must be altered; he therefore knows that he is playing tricks with reality; but by the exercise of doublethink he also satisfies himself that reality is not violated. The process has to be conscious, or it would not be carried out with sufficient precision, but it also has to be unconscious, or it would bring with it a feeling of falsity and hence of guilt.

Doublethink lies at the very heart of Ingsoc, since the essential act of the Party is to use conscious deception while retaining the firmness of purpose that goes with complete honesty. To tell deliberate lies while genuinely believing them and to forget any fact that has become inconvenient, and then, when it becomes necessary again, to draw it back from oblivion for just so long as it is needed, to deny the existence of objective reality and all the while to take account of the reality which one denies - all this is indispensably necessary. Even in using the word doublethink it is necessary to exercise doublethink. For by using the word one admits that one is tampering with reality; by a fresh act of doublethink one erases this knowledge; and so on indefinitely, with the lie always one leap ahead of the truth. Ultimately it is by means of doublethink that the Party has been able - and may, for all we know, continue to be able for thousands of years - to arrest the course of history.