STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday December 17.....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Wednesday December 17, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 404
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 000
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 5 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 57 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 269
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 753
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 16, 2003

Dow... 10,129.56 +106.74 (+1.06%)
Nasdaq... 1,924.29 +6.03 (+0.31%)
S&P 500... 1,075.13 +7.09 (+0.66%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.23% -0.04 (-0.96%)
Gold future... 408.40 -1.50 (-0.37%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Ike Iossif

"Weekly Charts"
Summary for Trading Week Ending 12-12-03

The Dow and the SP have broken out and held above resistance. Consequently we ought to expect continuation to the upside in the absence of any exogenous event that upsets the market. What could that be?

We've got three different forces that are pulling on the other direction: oil, interest rates, and the dollar (see charts below) So far, the equity markets have been able to overcome the "opposite pull." Will they be able to continue so if oil went over $35 and the dollar index below 85 for example? We do not know, but it is something that certainly needs to be kept in mind. Pay attention to the 10100 level in the Dow and 1085 in the SP for a reversal, if that doesn't happen, they are heading to 10250-10350 and 1100-1106 respectively.

lots of charts

[ozymandius]

2. Costa Rica walks out of US talks on trade deal

Costa Rica on Tuesday walked away from negotiations with the US on a Central American free trade agreement (Cafta), raising the possibility that the talks could fail to meet a year-end deadline (news - web sites).

Negotiations were continuing last night with the four other countries - El Salvador (news - web sites), Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua - and a US official said it was possible that the deal would be reached with just those four countries initially.

<cut>

The talks broke down primarily over demands that Costa Rica liberalise its monopoly telecommunications sector and allow US insurance companies into its market. Many US companies also want to see it dismantle regulations that give local dealers a monopoly over distribution networks.

more

[ClintonTyree]

3. What was the,,,,,,,,,,,,

reason for yesterdays run up? Besides the housing numbers in an already glutted market, and worker productivity (slave labor, working people to death) numbers? I still believe that this market is WAY overvalued again without solid support. There must be things that I fail to see, or I see tham and they don't mean the same to me as they do everyone else.
Frankly I'm glad that they're running up, at least until next Friday when I finally convinced my Mother to divest of her Mutual Funds. We're flying home for Christmas and I suggested this might be a good time to bail out while she's at the break even point of 4 years ago. Mutuals scare the hell out of me at the moment, I'm happy she's finally getting out. She'll sleep better at night as well.

[ozymandius]

5. This is a curiosity.

Foreclosures are up across the board. Some foreclosures have occurred in areas where new building is taking place. Manufacturing is up and it only makes sense that if housing sales are up then the distribution of durable goods would be too. Consumer confidence traditionally rises during the holidays. So I believe that any combination of these reasons would make for a boost in stock prices.

Take into account too that the stock market is akin to a casino. The shorts have been trumping the longs for quite awhile now. Upon any news unrelated to economic fundamentals (like Saddam Hussein's capture) we see the buy-buy lemmings lured into the water to be eaten by the profit-taking sharks.

[Tempest]

23. Speculation

There were a couple of reports saying that inflation will stay low and manufacturing will rebound next year.

I wouldn't bet the farm on it though.

[Sir_Shrek]

25. From what I've read...

The indications that inflation is increasingly unlikely (or at the very least, mild) are good for stocks. It's also why we saw some money go into Treasuries, which some consider inflation to hurt even more.

Reading some stuff just prior to the "Saddam rally", most analysts didn't think it would make a big difference because the opinion is that the stock market is generally fully valued at this point.

[ozymandius]

4. Consumer Prices Slip, House Market Soars

WASHINGTON - Consumer prices slid, industrial production surged and housing construction sizzled in November, signs that the economic recovery is powering ahead without unwanted inflation.

The latest batch of economic news Tuesday raised hopes that the recovery will be lasting and that businesses may feel more inclined to boost hiring, analysts said.

"We have no inflation, once idle factories are pumping out goods and houses are being erected at a breakneck pace. This is a perfect recipe for economic strength," said Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research Corp.

<cut>

In other economic news, the red-hot housing market continued to sizzle in November, with construction of new homes and apartments rising 4.5 percent to an annual rate of 2.07 million units, the fastest building pace in nearly two decades, the Commerce Department (news - web sites) said.

story

[ClintonTyree]

6. Doesn't that make..................

for a housing glut though? I know in my area apartments are nowhere near capacity, they're offering unheard of incentives to lure renters, yet they comtinue to build more. There are so many new houses being built that they remain unoccupied for extended periods of time....... is this all speculation? I'm not a Street whiz by any means, but it seems to me that a great deal of this 'boom' is mere speculation and sooner or later the paper that was written for the construction of these places is going to be due.

[ozymandius]

8. It is entirely speculative and nonsensical.

There are too many apartments in the Atlanta area (where I live). More are being built, same as condos. Houses are being constructed at a feverish pace. But why?

I asked a frind of mine, a real estate agent, about unchecked building. He says that there is only one developer in the whole of metro Atlanta that builds according to need instead of by want. It really seems to be a pissing contest among developers. As a consequence, some developers have lost their shirts.

My family and I live in an apartment. They are so-called "luxury" apartments (laughable by any real "luxury" standards). Despite their location in an extremely desirable part of town and discounted rents as much as $300/month in the past year on the largest units, the place is still not full. It may be at 80% capacity.

Yet, more units go up because "anybody who is anybody wants to live in-town". That is the conventional wisdom that is driving this boom. Mind you, conventional wisdom is often an oxymoron.

[Maeve]

9. Remember the big push to build office space in the 80's?

Same song, different verse. Speculation that will destroy many developers.

The low interest rates are fueling both the housing boom/bubble AND the foreclosures--folks who never thought they could afford a home are buying, only to discover they CAN'T afford a home (well, not the new place they were told was "in their budget").

One advantage of the American economy is that it is so big--you can have booms and busts going on at the same time, but it averages out. It takes a truly horrific downturn or multiple smaller messes to tip the balance to negative. That is why we just seem to be running a low-grade fever (or suffering a sub-clinical recession, if you will); it takes an awful lot to topple a creature this size. However, the laws of gravity still need to be respected.

more coffee!
:donut::donut::donut::donut::donut:

[Media_Lies_Daily]

12. Who's actually buying any of the units currently under construction?....

Answer: Nobody...the housing construction industry is building units on nothing but speculation. They are hoping/guessing that people will be able to buy/rent what they're building.

Where is all of this industrial production taking place?

Answer: In countries where the labor is dirt cheap, not in America.

Who is expected to buy/rent the homes/apartments currently being built, and who is expected to puechase all of the goods/services being produced in other countries?

Answer: Without the massive creation of permanent full-time jobs, the answer is rather obvious. The newly created homes and apartments will remain empty, and the goods and services will have to be sold elsewhere. The current creation of jobs has been seasonal in nature, consisting of temporary, part-time, and contractual labor.

Why are consumer prices slipping?

Answer: Because the demand for goods and services has apparently dropped off and prices are being lowered to encourage buying.

Call me cynical if you must, but this so-called "economic recovery" is being engineered to improve the chances of the Chimpster being reelected in 2004, if indeed elections are actually held.

[KayLaw]

24. Sure hope you're wrong

Because if stores are lowering prices because of too much inventory, house sellers will need to do the same with all this new housing coming up. That would really hurt a lot of people, especially those who refinanced and little to no home equity, don't you think?

[ozymandius]

7. Dollar Holds Near Record Lows Vs. Euro

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar held near record lows against the euro on Wednesday after the previous session's subdued inflation data from the United States encouraged the view that U.S. interest rates would remain low for some time.

Dealers say this means the U.S. will face difficulty funding its current account deficit from foreign investments, which usually tend to steer clear of low-yield destinations.

U.S. rates of just one percent compare unfavorably to the euro zone's two percent and make it easy to fund global investors' trades into other higher-yielding currencies, a factor which further undermines the dollar.

story

[Maeve]

10. Can anyone do a screen capture on CNN Money?

Right now, it has a sub-title "Monday's big rally" under the top story. :wtf: Someone got their days mixed!
http://money.cnn.com/

[Maeve]

11. Whoa! --Halliburton units file for bankruptcy

Halliburton units file for bankruptcy
The company's Kellogg Brown & Root and DII Industries units file for Chapter 11 protection.
December 16, 2003: 3:33 PM EST
HOUSTON (Reuters) - Halliburton Co. said Tuesday its Kellogg Brown & Root and DII Industries units filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in a Pittsburgh court to resolve asbestos claims against the company.
<more>

Silly me! I thought companies making money hand over fist from Uncle Sugar couldn't possibly go broke! :eyes: (okay, I know the reason for them seeking protection, but...I'd better get that coffee now)

[Maeve]

13. Poverty in America--video reports

Thought some of you might want to see this--a new series of five. The first one and future links to the others are here:

http://money.cnn.com/pf/features/povertyinamerica/

"Though the economy is showing some signs of a pulse, many Americans are still feeling the pinch. The latest Census Bureau report shows 1.4 million more people were sent into poverty in 2002. It's estimated that 34 million Americans now live in poverty, including 17% of America's children. We explore how millions of Americans are dealing with a dwindling supply of affordable housing, higher unemployment for low-skilled workers, and fewer government services in a strict welfare-to-work program."

[54anickel]

15. It amazes me that they continue to tout "unemploment" for low-skilled

workers. Granted, this article deals with those in the poverty levels and they may well have been in low-skilled jobs. But Greenspan has stated the same thing, that we are loosing low-skilled jobs.
That just isn't the case anymore as the attack on the middle class continues.

Found this interesting article. It is a shame as they also pit workers against each other as more companies come up with 2-tier wage and benefit contracts.

http://www.buffalonews.com/editorial/20031217/1058076.asp

Following bitter debate within union ranks, Erie County's Local 815, Civil Service Employees Association, has approved a three-year contract that is expected to avert the layoff of 200 county employees but still leaves other jobs at risk.
The contract, which buys into the county's new one-provider health insurance program and offers 2 percent raises in the second and third years of the contract, was approved Monday by the narrowest margin in the union's recent history - 1,518 to 1,226, a difference of 292 votes.

Compared to previous contracts, this one allows for no raises in 2004 in exchange for fully paid health insurance premiums and conservative wage increases in the second and third years.

The terms of the contract will affect 4,500 white-collar workers employed by the county.

snip>
The contract was supported in larger numbers by union employees who joined the county in 1993 or later and must now pay part of their health insurance premium, union officials said. It was also supported heavily by older union members who plan to retire within the next few years and are interested in retiring under a contract with fully covered insurance.

But for those union members in between, the contract was a hard sell because they already receive fully covered insurance from a variety of providers, and the negotiated raises were far smaller than in the past, officials said.

[ozymandius]

14. Wall Street prepares for early profit taking (the casino cometh)

With a lack of fresh news on the economy and following the previous session's strong rally, equities on Wall Street were expected to open lower on Wednesday as investors book profits.

Futures trade indicated opening losses, with S&P futures down 2.8 points, Nasdaq futures off 5 points and Dow futures 30 points lower.

"Expect the profit takers to stride into the ring and cash in some chips," said David Buik at Cantor Index.

<cut>
The next couple of days trade may be determined on how good the results from a number of investment banks turn out. On Wednesday, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers report, while Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs announce earnings on Thursday.

more

[54anickel]

16. Dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s

Last trade 88.16 Change -0.15 (-0.17%)

High 88.55 Low 88.09

And this regarding that bit of a rally. Wazzup?

http://www.reuters.com/financeArticle.jhtml?storyID=4006398&newsType=usDollarRpt&menuType=currencies

LONDON, Dec 17 (Reuters) - The dollar spiked a third of a yen higher to 107.80 yen in a matter of minutes on Wednesday with dealers wary of Japanese intervention but uncertain whether the Bank of Japan had actually been active.

"It looks like the BOJ, but it certainly didn't come through us," said one trader at a Japanese bank in London.

(bit more at article)

[Maeve]

17. And at 9:40---the mercury is falling

Dow 10,095.93 -33.63 (-0.33%)
Nasdaq 1,912.60 -11.69 (-0.61%)
S&P 500 1,071.73 -3.41 (-0.32%)
10-Yr Bond 4.182% -0.052


I'll see y'all later--Mom is due to arrive for shopping and lunch so have fun watching the show today!

[ozymandius]

18. See ya later Maeve! Here's a news update.

Stocks Open Down, All Eyes on Earnings

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks opened lower on Wednesday as investors digested the previous session's heady run-up in the Dow and sifted through a flurry of earnings reports.

short little blurb

What's this? Why do traders suddenly take an interest in fundamentals?

[54anickel]

19. Oh-oh. Could this be the day they discover it's full of hot air?

[ozymandius]

21. Inner circle corporate dumping of stocks is at an all-time high.

Just like the Enron execs who dumped their stocks before the collapse, other execs are also dumping their stocks at an alarming rate. I wonder if companies are buying back these stocks to boost their share price. If so, how might such activity be monitored?

[54anickel]

20. Gold should be interesting to watch.....

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/031217/markets_precious_1.html

Reuters
UPDATE - Gold driven higher in Asia, key support intact

SINGAPORE, Dec 17 (Reuters) - Gold rose in Asia on Wednesday and looked set to hold above the key $400-an-ounce support this month on a weak U.S. dollar and receding fears of a heavy year-end profit-taking.

snip>

Some traders and analysts had said gold could fall to $390 this month because investors liked to book profits before the end of the year.

"But it looks like gold will continue pushing higher. It may not break a new high immediately but it will move up closer to $412," said one precious metal analyst in Sydney.

"The market has consolidated to stay above $400 level and looks for opportunity to break $412, then rising to $418 and $430."

Gold has risen 18 percent this year to its highest in nearly eight years. A breach of the $417.70 peak it hit in early 1996 would take gold back to its strongest in just under 13 years.

[ozymandius]

22. all red

10:22

Dow 10,102.67 -26.89 (-0.27%)
Nasdaq 1,912.80 -11.49 (-0.60%)
S&P 500 1,072.03 -3.10 (-0.29%)
10-Yr Bond 4.178% -0.056

Look at the money coming into the treasuries.

[54anickel]

26. And the dollar still down

Last trade 88.01 Change -0.30 (-0.34%)

High 88.55 Low 87.99

That high was at about 7:30 am. Been a downhill slope ever since.

[Coventina]

27. The "I Ching" on today's market

Hi everyone,

Today's reading is a little bit of a head scratcher. It is ENCOURAGING changing to RESOLUTION. Encouraging is actually in its negative aspect because of the changing line which I will quote here: "Total abandonment to outside pleasures and diversions is only momentarily fulfilling. These indulgences in idle distractions will surely bring misfortune."

Ok, who here has been goofing off and making Ching mad???
;-)

Anyway, RESOLUTION has some good news, "The forces that may threaten you are now in a position to be eradicated. This must be done without thought of retreat, wholly in the open, and without violence."

I am going to predict that today is going to be down, because Ching thinks the market is obsessed with indulgences, and unlikely to "grow in the direction of what is good."

:hi:

[ozymandius]

28. I will agree with Ching.

The markets have become very self-indulgent. When we see sucker rally after sucker rally, what do you expect to happen? Pay attention to fundamentals perhaps?

[ozymandius]

29. still red but higher

11:50

Dow 10,121.71 -7.85 (-0.08%)
Nasdaq 1,919.39 -4.90 (-0.25%)
S&P 500 1,073.73 -1.40 (-0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.176% -0.058

[mrsteve]

30. 12:35 - still under water on all indexes

Pretty sluggish today - see the Yahoo Fi blurb below.

Dow 10,117.33 -12.23 (-0.12%)
Nasdaq 1,917.73 -6.56 (-0.34%)
S&P 500 1,073.46 -1.68 (-0.16%)
10-Yr Bond 4.164% -0.070

Even Yahoo Finance is bored:
12:00PM: Today's session is rather spiritless, as the major averages have spent the bulk of the session in negative territory and volume has been on the light side of things... The blue-chip averages have remained within a short reach of the unchanged line for the entirety of the session, which is not too shabby considering the fact that both closed at their new 52-week highs in yesterday's session...
The Nasdaq, on the other hand, noticeably underperformed the S&P 500 and the Dow on a relative basis in the early going, but has managed to stage a nice recovery through the morning, which has lifted the tech composite to the flat line... Like the market, the bulk of the sectors are in negative territory, but are little changed, with airline and healthcare facilities groups among the laggards of note... Steel, oil services, department stores, homebuilding, and biotech sectors are among the few leaders to the upside... Currently, the Nasdaq is slightly underperforming its blue-chip counterparts on a relative basis, which is consistent with the rotation out of momentum stocks in favor of value plays witnessed since the beginning of December...

Market participants have noted that the Nasdaq's continued failure to confirm the blue-chip averages' trek of new 52-week highs may result in a broad-based pullback... Keep in mind, though, that the Nasdaq is trading within reach of its 52-week highs, although it's currently below its 50-day simple moving average (1932) - a technical level that has proven to be of significant support/resistance in the market's advance off its March lows..."

[ozymandius]

33. 1:23 update

Dow 10,098.23 -31.33 (-0.31%)
Nasdaq 1,910.79 -13.50 (-0.70%)
S&P 500 1,071.83 -3.31 (-0.31%)
10-Yr Bond 4.153% -0.081

[54anickel]

31. Zowie! Look at gold taking off again. And the dollar, another drop

Last trade 87.87 Change -0.44 (-0.50%)

High 88.55 Low 87.81 hit the low around 12:30


Gold 410.70 +3.50

[54anickel]

32. NYSE splitting chairman, CEO roles as SEC approves overhaul plan

Perhaps new rules have spooked a few of the less scrupulous?

http://www.startribune.com/stories/535/4273401.html

WASHINGTON -- Federal regulators, responding to a pay scandal at the New York Stock Exchange, approved an overhaul of the exchange Wednesday after the NYSE agreed to split its top executive positions to avoid concentrating excessive power in one person.

The Securities and Exchange Commission voted, 5-0, at a public meeting to approve the plan proposed by the NYSE's interim chairman, John Reed, and endorsed last month by 98 percent of the exchange's members. The plan would establish a smaller and more independent board of directors to oversee regulation of the exchange and appointment of an autonomous chief regulatory officer.

The nation's largest stock exchange is emerging from a scandal prompted by its former chairman's lavish pay, which raised the issue of an imperious chief executive.

[JNelson6563]

34. Howdy Marketeers!!

Sorry I missed so much of the action today.

Things aren't looking so hot eh?

1:43 and here we are:

Dow 10,102.38 -27.18 (-0.27%)
Nasdaq 1,912.34 -11.95 (-0.62%)
S&P 500 1,071.80 -3.33 (-0.31%)
10-Yr Bond 4.153% -0.081


Tresuries smile.

Julie

[Maeve]

36. Been quite a ride today from the looks of things

Dow 10,114.45 -15.11 (-0.15%)
Nasdaq 1,913.77 -10.52 (-0.55%)
S&P 500 1,072.66 -2.47 (-0.23%)
10-Yr Bond 4.156% -0.078


Back from the mall with some good economic news--I haven't seen it that busy during the week in a couple of years. Admitted, it's a big sale day, but...Whether it will suffice to lift retailers' hearts is another matter.

[On the Road]

35. The NASDAQ Just Formed the First Higher Low in Months

This could mean the beginning of a downtrend or even the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders pattern.

The Dow and S&P have been up the last week while the NASDAQ, which has been leading the market, has been down. This may represent a flight to quality from tech companies to large stable companies and presage a downturn.

[mrsteve]

37. 2:38 - the Dow climbs out of the water

Just a little bit...

Dow 10,130.45 +0.89 (+0.01%)
Nasdaq 1,919.27 -5.02 (-0.26%)
S&P 500 1,074.91 -0.22 (-0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.170% -0.064

Looks like the whole gang is on the thread today, including Ozy. Hello everybody! :hi:

[54anickel]

38. Dollar & gold update, CEO of Goldcorp sells 40% of stock

Hey there everyone :hi:

Dollar still down from open of 88.37

Last trade 87.91 Change -0.40 (-0.45%)
High 88.55 Low 87.80

COMEX closes with gold up 4.10 at 411.30

And this bit of news on the gold front

http://www2.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/newsArticles.asp?guid=%7B08606023%2D995D%2D49F0%2DBFD5%2DA63CF5B244AF%7D&doctype=2005&siteid=mktw&selCount=50&value=gold&property=word&

VANCOUVER, British Columbia , Dec 17 (Reuters) - Goldcorp
Inc.
GC was the worst performing stock on the
Toronto gold board on Wednesday, sliding 4 percent after news
that the company's chief executive had sold $28.4 million worth
of stock in the Canadian gold producer.
Goldcorp said Rob McEwen, who is also the chairman of the
Toronto-based miner, sold 5.5 million of his Goldcorp shares on
Tuesday in a sale he said was necessary for his personal
financial needs.
The stock sold represents about 39 percent of McEwen's
holding in the mid-sized gold producer. It leaves him holding
about 8.5 million Goldcorp shares -- about 4.5 percent of all
the stock in the company.
Shares listed in Toronto sank as low as C$20.25 but by
early afternoon had recovered slightly to C$20.58 -- a loss of
62 Canadian cents, or 3 percent.

[htuttle]

39. Hmm...Leverage issues? Lease fees come due?

I've read something about the weird world of gold bullion 'leases', and what I read indicated various problems that might occur if gold went up (ie., big tangle of gold derivatives, hedging, and leased bullion, etc...).

I wonder if that is the case with McEwen? Or maybe he just happened to need $28 million suddenly for 'personal reasons'?

[mrsteve]

40. 15 minutes left - hope springs eternal

...as the Nasdaq tries to climb out of negative territory.

Dow 10,139.63 +10.07 (+0.10%)
Nasdaq 1,921.06 -3.23 (-0.17%)
S&P 500 1,075.99 +0.86 (+0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.189% -0.045

[ozymandius]

41. finals for the day

4:07
Dow 10,145.26 +15.70 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq 1,921.33 -2.96 (-0.15%)
S&P 500 1,076.48 +1.35 (+0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.189% -0.045