World Oceans' Cold-store About to Collapse (translated from SPIEGEL)

[Celefin]

First results from the 'Andrill' expedition.

Most calculations about rising sea levels only take into
account the melting of inland ice in the western Antarctic.
That the eastern ice shield, more massive by far, may be
threatened by even moderately rising temperatures (2-3C)
has hitherto not been part of the models.

Analysis of a new drilling core have shown that the sea ice
is a much more dynamic system than previously thought.
If the sea ice melts, the melting and movement speed of the
inland glaciers will be greatly accelerated.

The sea ice in the Antarctic bays is an important part
of the global ocean current system, cooling down surface water
and keeping the southern circulation going.
The Ross ice sheet, approximately the size of France,
could be the first to go.

The conclusion is that the effects of even moderate rises
in temperature may still be underestimated.

http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/0,1518,469136,00.html
(in German)

http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/0,5538,19706,00.html
(pictures from the 'Andrill' expedition)

[sam sarrha]

1. when the thermol Halocline stops.. the NE Coast of the Us will Glaciate.. where do they go

[hedgehog]

24. Knowing that weather is so complex that most models change

a single factor and hold everything else constant; has anyone figured out just what polar temperatures will be by the time so much ice melts that the thermo Holocene stops? In other words; could it be that the Arctic is warming so much that Europe won't need the heat from the Gulf any more? What about the increased fury of hurricanes as a means of dissipating tropical heat across northern regions?

[sam sarrha]

26. you are dreaming.. the heat quits flowing up it freezes in the N latitudes

[hedgehog]

28. Yes, but that assumes that the North latitudes are cold.

Why would Arctic ice be melting if the Arctic wasn't warming up? How can the Arctic get significantly warmer (no polar ice in the summer) without Northern Europe warming up independently of any heat transfer from the Gulf of Mexico?

I think past predictions of a possible Little Ice Age in Europe were predicated on a slow warming event that added enough fresh water to the ocean to slow the Gulf Stream without significantly changing Arctic temperatures. What I think we're seeing now is a warming event that is proceeding much faster than anyone anticipated.

[sam sarrha]

29. the north latitudes will be cold, the warm humboldt and gulf streams will STOP.. it will ice up and

reflect the heat off the snow in winter it will go into an Ice age type system till the ice builds up again.. taking about 400 years, if we dont do something NOW.. it will last 800 years

the propaganda about the south pole getting colder is BS.. it is melting too

it takes 5 pounds of red hot cast iron to vaporize a pound of water.. the ice was 6000 feet thick above Seattle during the last ice age.. the equator had to really heat up to evaporate that much water

[Bigmack]

34. Ummmm.... should be "thermohaline"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermohaline_circulation

[Eurobabe]

2. Cold-Storage Depot of the World's Oceans threaten to Fail

Curiousity bit me, and I translated (roughly as time allowed) some of this...it doesn't sound good at all. I can do more later, but I now have to get back to work!! :P

Cold-storage depot of the World's Oceans threatens to fail
By Stefan Schmitt

A surprising find in the Antarctic alarms scientists: The southern shelf ice reacts according to to an ice drill core analysis more sensitively to warming up than originally thought. Consequence: The sea level could rise through the climatic change more strongly than so far assumed. The Hightech drill from October to at the end of of December 2006 dug itself 1287 meters and 87 centimeters into the bottom of the sea under the Ross Ice Shelf in the east Antarctic. The deposits, which were returned with the drill core to the surface, make a time journey possible. With each meter of sediment scientists can look approximately 10,000 years into the past. The recent drilling returns evidence from roughly twelve million years ago.

The sample could turn out as one of the most important drill cores of the past years. Because the deposits therein show: Only during the last million years have the climates of the south continent been continuously cold, one of the largest bays of the Antarctic was constantly covered by several hundred meters of thick ice. Approximately five million years ago the shelf ice shelf melted and as did probably a considerable part of the mainland ice. Where the researchers must drill today into 80 meters shelf ice, before they reach the 800 meters depth of water the sea-bottom, was at one time open ocean. In the following approximately 3.5 million years the climate constantly varied. Lothar Viereck-Götte, geoscientist interprets the first provisional data over the new drill core on the website of Andrill (Antarctic Geological triplet). The community project of Germany, Italy, New Zealand and the USA is to reconstruct the prehistory of the Antarctic environmental condition by new drillings.

[Celefin]

11. Thanks 48%! Here's the next part and link to Andrill

'This time we were able to reach the layers between 5 and 12 million years old.',
Lothar Viereck-Götte said in an interview with SPIEGEL online. The history of
ice developments 5 million years ago are especially surprising, hitherto
comparable data was lacking. He speaks of a 'frightening result': The icecaps
are a lot more mobile and sensitive than we had previously surmised.

'That the sea was completely ice-free in this region for almost 1 million years
is a completely new discovery.' The melting 5 million years ago is set in
the context of a prehistoric climate change. 'There must have been a massive
melting process going on.' In contrast, the reason for this melting seems
not to have been massive at all:
Palaeoclimatologists, by using isotope analyses form various places all over
the globe, have shown that the water temperatures were only 2-3 degrees centigrade
elevated - a seemingly small change. According to the new Andrill drilling core,
this change led to a completely ice-free Ross sea.

Microorganisms in the core called Diatomea show this clearly: They cannot
live under ice but are found in all the sediments from this million-year period.

'We would never have thought that the system is that sensitive.'

http://www.andrill.org/
(and yes, it's in English.)

[Eurobabe]

30. Ah, you know I thought about checking out that site!!

I could have saved myself 20 minutes of hacking between google translator, babelfish and my own knowledge of German!! :hi:

[Celefin]

32. www.andrill.org is quite informative, yup

But hey, you did really well in translating that ;)
At the moment I'm really happy this turned into a real
thread and that's thanks to your efforts also.

[TrogL]

35. So when's Dubya gonna invade Canada?

• This will open up the Northwest Passage
  
• Much of the US will become uninhabitable, at least in summer, where do people live?
  
• there's oil under them thair ice
  

[Porcupine]

3. Let's hope they're wrong.

Because they'res not a damn thing else we can do.

[Lorien]

4. Far, far scarier than any act of terrorism

yet the world continues to sleep on the greatest threat our species has ever faced...

[rodeodance]

7. 'it can't happen to me' mentality!!

[Eurobabe]

31. IMHO this is terrorism, destruction of the planet

[jollyreaper2112]

5. oh my fucking god!

This means the Carribean islands will be covered up!!! AND YOU KNOW WHAT THAT MEANS?!?!?!!?

THEY WON"T BE ABEL TO BURY ANNA NICOL SMITH'S BODY!!!!! IM SERIES!11!!! THIS IS HUGH#!!#!#!! ZOMG!!!!!!

And in other news, nothing of import happened in the world today. Back to you, Tom, with the latest celebrity debasement.

[mainer]

6. Isn't this the "Day After Tomorrow" scenario?

Where Europe and most of North America descend into an Ice Age?

[NashVegas]

14. Something Between That and "AI"

..

[kestrel91316]

18. Yeah, but that was a totally absurd movie based on bad science.

It could NEVER happen.

:sarcasm:

People laugh at Art Bell and Whitley Strieber (including me), whose book this was based upon. But they may turn out to have been prophets.

[mainer]

23. hey, don't say mean things about my buddy Art!

he's really a good guy.

[corkhead]

19. The doomsday scenario where only corporations and cockroaches will remain standing

[jwirr]

27. Cockroaches do not do very well in cold weather. It is one of the

reasons I love Minnesota.

When my son-in-law and I were talking about an ice age he reminded me that people have survived in similar situations in Alaska, Northern Canada and Siberia. It isn't easy but they do it.

[The Stranger]

8. Has Chimp admitted "global warming" is occurring? Is Harry going to fail on another non-binding

resolution -- this time about global warming?

:woohoo:

[Poll_Blind]

9. K&R. n/t

PB

[Straight Shooter]

10. Sometimes I feel like we're all swatting at political gnats ...

... while a dragon is rising from its sleep to consume us all. :(

[Celefin]

12. With you on that...

...coming from an environmental science and forestry background
I often catch myself wondering which place on the globe might
be the right place to found a family.
On the lines of 'is it feasible to start a new civilization in that
part of the world when the society of the early 21st century
has successfully killed itself of.'

Bloody basic mammal thinking.

[Straight Shooter]

13. I don't run around panic-stricken, but ...

... I do take opportunities to warn people, especially youth, of the coming "water wars." I've been doing this for years, and only recently have people begun to tentatively agree with me.

Lest we become too morbid, Celefin, welcome to DU! :hi:

[Celefin]

16. Not panicky, just cynical :)

But you're right, keep that mood up.
No sense in walking the earths crust shrouded in misery. :)

Thanks for the welcome Straight, it's a great place to hang about!

[Shallah Kali]

20. Look at what was the best spots during the last Ice Age then look at who has bought land there

After all global warming has been known about for over 50 years. Then they figured it would cause an inland sea covering up much of the middle USA. When did someone first make the connection between the last ice age probably being triggered by a warming globe melting the ice caps.

hmm did a little googling and found rumors that bush sr. bought a huge chunk of land in Paraguay not long ago. Not exactly a hard news source but just for the halibut here is Wonkette on that rumor:
http://wonkette.com/politics/george-w.-bush/we-hate-to-bring-up-the-nazis-but-they-fled-to-south-america-too-208549.php

Here is the guardian.uk on the rumor:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,,1928928,00.html

[nashville_brook]

21. wondering... have you identified a place?

this stuff is totally in the back of my mind... and... ironically, i've found myself back in farking Florida, on the coast no less. i've constantly got this feeling that i'm seeing the last days of the ecosystem here -- the barrier islands near canaveral.

i don't have good vibes about this season's possible hurricanes. it's not like i own anything (anymore). i'm not worried about myself, really. it's just... floridians are only now getting over the PSTD from the last spate of storms. the ennui was horrible.

i love florida... the climate is great for my health situation, but i can totally see a messy hurricane season sending me looking for HIGHER GROUND.

[Celefin]

33. Where the Celts took refuge, more or less

I know this sounds rather romantic but it is coincidental.
Western Ireland, North Wales and the Isle of Anglesey,
West and central Scotland.
These areas are thinly populated because they are mainly
rich in rock and bog, but with warmer temperatures it will
become easier to grow crops there, especially if you have
knowledge of more sophisticated agroforestry practices.
Not -easy- as such, but feasible.
The ground is high enough and it may just be far enough to
the north to avoid tropical diseases that will start spreading
in central Europe. Well, one can hope.

Since it seems that the warming is taking place much faster
than anticipated it may actually override the cooling effect
of the gulf stream breaking down. An indicator for that is that
despite the gulf stream having diminished by 40% over the last
two decades, fish species depending on warmer water have
moved north 80km in the last decade in the
Irish Sea and North Sea.

Alas, since I'm from Europe and currently sitting in Bangor
in North Wales, I really wouldn't know where to go in the Americas.
But Florida doesn't sound as to good an option, granted.

[NashVegas]

15. And The Rich Get Richer and Richer

So they can afford a seat on the shuttle to the new colony.

[Forkboy]

17. Reminds me of Kim Stanley Robinson's books about this recently.

[redqueen]

22. Jesus...

I'm trying not to feel hopeless, but damn...

[lovuian]

25. Good Bye some of these islands

not pretty... where does all the animals and people go