STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday March 9

[ozymandius]

Friday March 9, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 682 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2265 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1969 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1929
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 9
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 8, 2007

Dow... 12,260.70 +68.25 (+0.56%)
Nasdaq... 2,387.73 +13.09 (+0.55%)
S&P 500... 1,401.89 +9.92 (+0.71%)
Gold future... 655.50 +2.60 (+0.40%)
30-Year Bond 4.65% +0.01 (+0.30%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.51% +0.01 (+0.27%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Market WrapUp

Keep a Jaundiced Eye on the Bond Market
BY MARTIN GOLDBERG, CMT

Over the last few days the stock market has tried to regain its footing as the public seemingly has breathed a sigh of relief that the worst is over. Last Tuesday, the market went from a footnote on most daily news reports to the lead and front page story at the blink of an eye. Now with the market retreating back into the business section of the newspaper and volatility back from its recent spike highs, it would pay to keep a jaundiced eye on the bond market. So much of the bullish case is derived from the presence of persistently low interest rates, and the recent media buzz has been about the rally in the bond market. Yet in the longer term, although it may not seem so, interest rates have been heading upward. The direction of interest rates is an important factor in the direction of the stock market since up trending interest rates tends to support lower stock prices and visa versa. Technical analysis suggests that this is a crucial time for the bond market as the interest rates are now making a higher low. If the higher low holds, that would strongly support a continuation of the intermediate term trend toward higher interest. Similarly, failure of the higher low to hold would support a change in intermediate interest rate trend from higher to lower.

The chart below is a long term chart of the 30-Year T-Bond yield. As is apparent from the long term perspective, interest rates have been heading downward in a secular trend that has started in the early 1980’s (not shown). The red lines define a consistent linear channel since before 1994 to the present. Lower highs have been made in 1994, 2000, and 2006, along with lower lows made in 1993, 1998, and 2003. However in the shorter term, interest rates are spending more time closer to the upper trendline. Additionally, as shown by the horizontal blue dashed lines, since mid-2003 the 30-year bond yield has made a series of intermediate term higher lows suggesting a possible change in secular (long term) trend. Finally, there has been a change in the bond market’s character since the possible bottom in long interest rates in mid-2003. Whereas previously, interest rates have risen in short duration large magnitude sharp rallies, recent years have shown interest rates rising in shorter steps.

-see chart-

It would be folly to underrate the importance of the current technical position of the long bond. My personal opinion is that the banking industry will trot out Alan Greenspan on a daily basis if it will support lower interest rates in spite of a grim fundamental picture. If interest rates head higher as they eventually must, then the collapse of the sub prime lenders and last week’s tremor in the stock market will be just the beginning of something really big and bad.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Ghost Dog]

42. Funds grab large share of US Treasuries

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-ftpulse.asp?FTSite=FTCOM&q=&t=&s1=&s2=&extelID=&ticker=&company=NEW&ftep=&isin=&sedol=&topic=&nx=39150.2502546296-891331925
March 9th 07:56GMT

Big hedge funds have recently grabbed such a large share of trading in US Treasury bonds that their activity is eclipsing many of the investment banks which have traditionally dominated the market. In particular, Citadel, the Chicago-based fund, is now estimated to account for more than 10 per cent of trading in the most liquid Treasuries, according to market participants with knowledge of the fund’s activity. The surge in the significance of hedge funds has arisen partly because Citadel and others are increasingly using computer-driven trading models that make trades very frequently to exploit tiny differences in prices, generating high volume. The shift indicates the degree to which the arrival of such electronic trading is now reshaping financial markets. Benn Steil, an academic who works at the Council for Foreign Relations, said: “Once hedge funds start accounting for this much of the market, it is hard to know what to call them – they are not really bank customers any more.” It is difficult to calculate accurately the proportion of the market represented by hedge funds since they do not release figures on their trading flows. Meanwhile, the two platforms that dominate electronic trading in liquid Treasuries – BrokerTec and eSpeed – are reluctant to discuss individual clients’ activity. However, in recent months Citadel and other funds have offered some data to financiers in Europe, because they are seeking to join MTS, the dominant platform for trading eurozone government bonds, whose membership is currently limited to banks.

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports-a-plenty

8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Feb
Briefing Forecast 100K
Market Expects 100K
Prior 111K

8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Feb
Briefing Forecast 4.7%
Market Expects 4.6%
Prior 4.6%

8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Feb
Briefing Forecast 0.4%
Market Expects 0.3%
Prior 0.2%

8:30 AM Average Workweek Feb
Briefing Forecast 33.8
Market Expects 33.8
Prior 33.8

8:30 AM Trade Balance Jan
Briefing Forecast -$59.5B
Market Expects -$60.0B
Prior -$61.2B

10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Jan
Briefing Forecast 0.1%
Market Expects 0.1%
Prior -0.5%

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[UpInArms]

14. US Feb NFP up 97,000 - but check out that China Trade Gap!

01. U.S. Feb. services payrolls up 168,000
8:30 AM ET, Mar 09, 2007 - 44 seconds ago

02. U.S. Dec., Jan. payrolls revised up 55,000
8:30 AM ET, Mar 09, 2007 - 44 seconds ago

03. U.S. Feb. factory payrolls fall 14,000
8:30 AM ET, Mar 09, 2007 - 44 seconds ago

04. U.S. Feb. construction payrolls fall 62,000
8:30 AM ET, Mar 09, 2007 - 44 seconds ago

05. U.S. Jan. trade gap with China $21.3bln vs $17.9 yr-earlier
8:30 AM ET, Mar 09, 2007 - 44 seconds ago

06. U.S. Feb. average workweek falls to 33.7 hours
8:30 AM ET, Mar 09, 2007 - 44 seconds ago

07. U.S. Jan. trade gap below consensus of $60.4 bln
8:30 AM ET, Mar 09, 2007 - 44 seconds ago

08. U.S. Feb. average hourly earnings up 0.4% vs. 0.3% expected
8:30 AM ET, Mar 09, 2007 - 44 seconds ago

09. U.S. Jan. trade gap narrows 3.8% to $59.1 bln
8:30 AM ET, Mar 09, 2007 - 44 seconds ago

10. U.S. Feb. unemployment rate falls to 4.5% vs. 4.6% expected
8:30 AM ET, Mar 09, 2007 - 44 seconds ago

11. U.S. Feb. nonfarm payrolls up 97,000 vs. 100,000 expected
8:30 AM ET, Mar 09, 2007 - 44 seconds ago

[Roland99]

26. "Of 278 industries, 63.5% were hiring in February, the lowest percentage since December 2005."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-feb-payrolls-up-97000/story.aspx?guid=%7B6E0A7CCE%2DE59E%2D4CC1%2D9384%2D35887AB68FB8%7D



yum.

[ozymandius]

18. Unemployment Rate Drops to 4.5 Percent

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The nation's unemployment rate dipped to 4.5 percent in February even as big losses of construction and factory jobs restrained overall payroll growth. Wages grew briskly.

The latest snapshot, released by the Labor Department on Friday, offered a somewhat mixed picture of the employment climate.

The slight decline in the politically prominent jobless rate, from 4.6 percent in January, came as hundreds of thousand of people left the work force for various reasons.

Employers, meanwhile, added 97,000 new jobs to their payrolls in February, the fewest in two years, as bad winter weather forced construction companies to slash 62,000 jobs, the most since 1991. Factories, feeling the strain of the troubled housing and auto industries, also continued to cut jobs. They eliminated 14,000 positions last month.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070309/economy.html?.v=9

[UpInArms]

40. US Jan Wholesale Inventories rise 0.7% (concensus of 0.1%) (Oopsie!)

35. U.S. Jan. nondurable goods inventories rise 0.1%
10:00 AM ET, Mar 09, 2007 - 2 hours ago

36. U.S. Jan. nondurable goods sales fall 1.8%
10:00 AM ET, Mar 09, 2007 - 2 hours ago

37. U.S. Jan. durable goods sales flat
10:00 AM ET, Mar 09, 2007 - 2 hours ago

38. U.S. Jan. durable goods inventories rise 1.1%
10:00 AM ET, Mar 09, 2007 - 2 hours ago

39. U.S. Jan. inventory-to-sales ratio 1.19
10:00 AM ET, Mar 09, 2007 - 2 hours ago

40. U.S. Jan. wholesale sales fall 0.9%
10:00 AM ET, Mar 09, 2007 - 2 hours ago

41. U.S. Jan. wholesale inventories rise 0.7%
10:00 AM ET, Mar 09, 2007 - 2 hours ago

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices steady below $62 a barrel

LONDON - Oil prices rose modestly on Friday as the market awaited U.S. jobs data due later in the day.

-cut-

Traders waited for the latest employment data by the U.S. Labor Department, analysts said.

"If the data shows strength, traders will resume confidence in the U.S. economy, which may move crude prices sharply," said Koichi Murakami, an analyst with brokerage Daiichi Shohin.

Data showing stability in U.S. jobs has previously been a market driver as it suggests consumers will keep spending money.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Ex-CIA chief spooked by fossil fuels

LAS VEGAS (CNNMoney.com) -- So maybe it was part of his job to be paranoid, but former CIA head R. James Woolsey takes no comfort in the nation's reliance on oil and other fossil fuels.

Speaking at a reception at a renewable energy conference in Las Vegas co-hosted by the American Council on Renewable Energy, Woolsey told an attentive crowd that the country's heavy reliance on oil has the two-pronged effect of contributing to global warming and helping to finance global terrorism.

-cut-

He said of the billions of dollars Saudi Arabia gets from U.S. oil purchases, millions find their way to terrorist organizations within the Middle Eastern country.

Woolsey said an attack last year on an oil processing plant in Saudi Arabia was the work of al Qaeda, and if successful would have knocked out 7 to 8 million barrels of oil exports a day for over a year, most likely causing the price of crude to jump to over $100 a barrel.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/08/news/economy/cia_energy/index.htm?postversion=2007030811

[UpInArms]

8. PNAC fool - it's everything but the stupidity that he wears, eh?

http://www.newamericancentury.org/iraqclintonletter.htm

January 26, 1998



The Honorable William J. Clinton
President of the United States
Washington, DC


Dear Mr. President:

We are writing you because we are convinced that current American policy toward Iraq is not succeeding, and that we may soon face a threat in the Middle East more serious than any we have known since the end of the Cold War. In your upcoming State of the Union Address, you have an opportunity to chart a clear and determined course for meeting this threat. We urge you to seize that opportunity, and to enunciate a new strategy that would secure the interests of the U.S. and our friends and allies around the world. That strategy should aim, above all, at the removal of Saddam Hussein’s regime from power. We stand ready to offer our full support in this difficult but necessary endeavor.

The policy of “containment” of Saddam Hussein has been steadily eroding over the past several months. As recent events have demonstrated, we can no longer depend on our partners in the Gulf War coalition to continue to uphold the sanctions or to punish Saddam when he blocks or evades UN inspections. Our ability to ensure that Saddam Hussein is not producing weapons of mass destruction, therefore, has substantially diminished. Even if full inspections were eventually to resume, which now seems highly unlikely, experience has shown that it is difficult if not impossible to monitor Iraq’s chemical and biological weapons production. The lengthy period during which the inspectors will have been unable to enter many Iraqi facilities has made it even less likely that they will be able to uncover all of Saddam’s secrets. As a result, in the not-too-distant future we will be unable to determine with any reasonable level of confidence whether Iraq does or does not possess such weapons.

<snip>

We urge you to articulate this aim, and to turn your Administration's attention to implementing a strategy for removing Saddam's regime from power. This will require a full complement of diplomatic, political and military efforts. Although we are fully aware of the dangers and difficulties in implementing this policy, we believe the dangers of failing to do so are far greater. We believe the U.S. has the authority under existing UN resolutions to take the necessary steps, including military steps, to protect our vital interests in the Gulf. In any case, American policy cannot continue to be crippled by a misguided insistence on unanimity in the UN Security Council.

<snip>

Elliott Abrams    Richard L. Armitage    William J. Bennett

Jeffrey Bergner    John Bolton    Paula Dobriansky

Francis Fukuyama    Robert Kagan    Zalmay Khalilzad

William Kristol    Richard Perle    Peter W. Rodman

Donald Rumsfeld    William Schneider, Jr.    Vin Weber

Paul Wolfowitz    R. James Woolsey    Robert B. Zoellick

[Ghost Dog]

43. Navarra embraces green energy

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/6430801.stm

EU leaders meeting in Brussels have agreed - after tough negotiations - to boost the use of renewable energy in Europe to 20% over the next 13 years. At the moment, less than 7% of Europe's needs are covered by wind power, biofuels or solar energy. But in the Navarra region, in north-eastern Spain, almost 70% of the electricity comes from the wind and the sun.

You do not have to look far in Navarra to see a windmill. Not the sort that Don Quixote fought, but the hi-tech turbines that provide much of the electricity here. With no coal, oil or gas of its own, this mountainous region deliberately went for renewable energy in the late 1980s. The first wind farm was built in full view of the regional capital Pamplona, so that people could get used to it. Now, with some 1,100 windmills dotted all over Navarra, this tiny region is capable of generating more electricity from renewable sources than big EU countries like France or Poland.

...

Some 100,000 people work in the green energy sector in Spain, with 4,000 new jobs created in Navarra in the last decade. As many people are now employed making turbines or solar panels as in car manufacturing, Navarra's traditional industry.

The regional industry secretary, Jose Javier Armendariz, says clean energy is overtaking cars as a source of growth. "I don't know how many people will be employed in the car industry in the future, but I can't imagine our future without it," Mr Armendariz says. "However, right now our focus is the development of the renewable energy sector."

...

An hour's drive from Pamplona, next to a village called Milagro, I went to see one of the biggest solar parks in Europe. On a field as vast as 50 football pitches, stand row upon row of huge solar panels, tilted to capture as much light as possible. In a growing trend in Spain, the solar park is a co-operative, with 750 individual owners. The cost of a panel starts at 50,000 euros, but with a tax break from the regional government and a guaranteed annual income there is a long waiting list of willing buyers.

Milagro's mayor Esteban Garijo thinks it is a brilliant investment. "On sunny days, the sun doesn't cost us anything. So not only are we generating clean energy, but we're also making money." Many in Navarra call it their "solar pension fund", Mr Garijo explains. "They buy a solar panel or two and hope to retire on the profits."

/..

[Roland99]

16. So, yesterday oil was up, what, $1? Gas shot up $0.20. We're at $2.55 now.

Unbelievable.


Well, not really.

[ozymandius]

22. Oil Rises on Stronger-Than-Normal Gasoline Demand in the U.S.

March 9 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil was little changed, close to $62 a barrel, on stronger-than-normal gasoline demand in the U.S., the world's biggest energy consumer.

Drivers used an average 9.1 million barrels a day in the four weeks ended March 2, 3.3 percent more than they consumed in the same period last year, Energy Department data shows. That is more than double the average year-on-year growth in consumption of the motor fuel in the U.S. Strong demand has contributed to four straight weeks of falling inventories.

``There is nothing in sight that's going to change the demand scenario for gasoline,'' said Peyton Feltus, president of Randolph Risk Management in Dallas. ``It will eventually pull crude higher.''

Crude oil for April delivery rose 1 cent to $61.65 a barrel at 9:03 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aLdB6kWxM9sc&refer=news

[Roland99]

25. Does this mean the rush back to Suburban Assault Vehicles is driving up qty demanded?

[ozymandius]

5. UPDATE: New Century Stops Accepting Loan Applications

SAN FRANCISCO (Dow Jones) -- New Century Financial Corp. said late Thursday that it has stopped accepting loan applications because some of the subprime- mortgage specialist's financial backers are refusing to provide access to financing.

New Century also said that it has received $150 million worth of margin calls from its so-called warehouse lenders. It has satisfied about $80 million of those calls, but $70 million remains, according to the company.

"As a result of the current constrained funding capacity, the company has elected to cease accepting loan applications from prospective borrowers effective immediately, while the company seeks to obtain additional funding capacity," New Century said in a statement.

-cut-

Lenders specializing in such loans, like New Century, rely in part on big banks known as warehouse lenders to finance their operations. These backers require that subprime lenders meet certain minimum financial targets; otherwise, they have the right to end the business relationship.

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djhighlights/200703081910DOWJONESDJONLINE001264.htm

[ozymandius]

6. Employers downshift out of hire gear

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A hot job market is getting awfully chilly very quickly.

After Labor Department readings showing that employers added an average of 187,000 jobs a month throughout 2006, coupled with the lowest unemployment rate since 2001, the February jobs report due Friday morning is likely to show 2007 is off to a much tougher start.

Economists surveyed by Briefing.com forecast payrolls grew by 100,000 in the month. If they're right, it would be the lowest rise since January 2005, lower than even the final estimates of jobs gains in the two months that followed Hurricane Katrina. There were also a disappointing 111,000 jobs added to payrolls in January.

-cut-

There are other readings suggesting a slowdown. Thursday the report on people filing for initial jobless claims showed the four-week moving average rose to the highest level since the week of Oct. 29, 2005, when the impact of Katrina was still being felt.

Wednesday an estimate on private sector job growth from payroll services firm ADP showed only 57,000 more jobs by nongovernmental employers in the month, the smallest gain in that reading since July 2003.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/08/news/economy/jobs_outlook/index.htm?postversion=2007030815

[UpInArms]

7. mornin' Ozy!

here I am duping your morning stories cuz I can't sleep and have been reading the rotted news.

:donut:

:hi:

[ozymandius]

13. Good morning UIA.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

(Dang. I would love a donut right now.)

The news has been dizzying, hasn't it? With so many hearings and subpoenas it's hard to keep track of it all.

:hi:

[AnneD]

24. Morning Marketeers....

:donut: and lurkers. This time reminds me of the period between 1968-1973. Every day you couldn't wait to get the newspaper (back when they really reported news)and see how the world had changed while you were sleeping. It was like Brigadoon on steroids. Between the war, the protests anti-war and civil rights, and the indictments etc., it was easy to get lost.

Today, I almost had a heart attack. One of the morning newscaster actually gave the unemployment stats for Houston. I was shocked, shocked to hear real news reported. I had gotten use to hearing about the Virgin Mary image on the pizza pan, and the continuing Anna Nicole Smith saga, that I almost forgot what real news was! Oh, and our unemployment is higher than the national average (so I guess my feelings and observations were right).

I will be out this next week for Spring Break. The first day I will be in Austin lobbying to get Nurses in public schools and limiting hospital Nurse to patient ratios. I am so happy, I have got 2 other members to go with me. I guess if you monkey around with folk's salaries, they get pissed enough to lobby. Next thing you know they are campaigning and....Heavens to Betsy, they become an informed electorate.

I'll e-mail you when I can next week.


Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.......

[Ghost Dog]

44. 'Evening Folks. I had to work away from my desk today,

and was all day reflecting upon the following, culled first-thing this morning, my time (and waiting to hear more):

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=usDollarRpt&storyID=2007-03-09T083922Z_01_L09344396_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FOREX-UPDATE-3.XML&pageNumber=1&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=InvArt-C1-ArticlePage1

Whether the relative calm which returned to markets towards the middle of this week will prevail, or whether it will be followed by a fresh bout of carry trade unwinding hinges in part on the U.S. non-farm payrolls data due at 1330 GMT.

"(A) low NFP can heighten the risk aversion in the FX and equity markets. In such a case the equity markets face pressure and renewed unwinding of yen carry trades may strengthen the yen," Citigroup said in a research note.

In a Reuters poll, economists expect 100,000 jobs were created last month compared with 111,000 in January. But below forecast weekly jobless claims on Thursday and ADP private sector employment report on Wednesday seem to suggest that risks are for a below consensus figure.

In the fourth of five economic derivative auctions, the implied market forecast of traders was for a payrolls increase of 84,100, well below the forecast of economists.

The dollar has suffered against most major currencies as market players look for the Federal Reserve to respond to weaker growth by cutting interest rates from the current 5.25 percent as soon as mid-year.

/...

Well, it seems the spin-doctors so far have the majority convinced that the data are still soft-landing-style wonderful...

Hard landing (Indonesia) :-(

[UpInArms]

9. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 84.02 Change -0.12 (-0.14%)

Dollar Treads Water - Beware of a Break

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_technicals/Dollar_Treads_Water___Beware_1173359613598.html

EURUSD – The EURUSD rally has extended further than anticipated but the pair has turned down from the confluence of the 61.8% fibo of 1.3262-1.3072 / short term trendline at 1.3188. The current level is critical (1.3140). This was previous resistance and is now proving as support. A sustained break below 1.3140 returns confidence to the bearish case that we have focused on recently. 1.3188 needs to hold in order to keep the immediate bearish structure intact and 1.3262 is critical to the intermediate bearish outlook. Reinforcing the bearish outlook is the head and shoulders pattern on the hourly. Coming under 1.3072 completes this pattern and shifts focus to 1.2865.

<snip>

USDJPY – As mentioned here yesterday, a rally to 117.63 / 118.00 (117.98 is where the rally from 116.20 would equal the 115.15-116.91 rally) would possibly complete a 4th wave correction and give way to another bout of weakness to below 115.15. However, the pair may top out closer to current price. The 115.15-116.91 rally is wave A in a 3 wave correction and the decline to 115.53 this morning was wave B. The current rally is wave C and would equal wave A at 117.31 (close to current price). Hourly RSI is nearing overbought territory so look for the pair to roll over close to 117.31/63. Coming under 116.91 increases confidence in a 5th wave decline to below 115.15.

<snip>

GBPUSD – We still contend that a small degree wave 4 likely ended at 1.9361 yesterday. 1.9361 is the 38.2% of 1.9655-1.9183 and the correction from 1.9183 is in 3 waves with waves A and C of that correction roughly equal (1.9183-1.9307 = 124 pips : 1.9229-1.9361 = 132 pips). Price should come under 1.9183 with 1.9361 resistance remaining intact. A break below 1.9183 may test the 61.8% of 1.8515-1.9915 at 1.9055. However, a decline below 1.9183 satisfies minimum expectations for the 5th wave. Since GBPUSD is in a wave 5 (compared to EURUSD in a wave 3), expect a correction back to 1.9360’sh once a wave low is established.

...more...

US Dollar - Payrolls Forecast Ranges from 38k to 165k, Expect Big Moves

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/US_Dollar___Payrolls_Forecast_1173393296262.html

US Dollar – Now more than ever, the non-farm payrolls report has the potential to trigger sharp movements in the currency market. For the past week, the dollar has consolidated its losses against the Japanese Yen, its gains against the Euro, British pound and commodity currencies. During this time, many traders have been sitting on the sidelines as they wait for the next big market catalyst. Non-farm payrolls have the potential to be that catalyst, especially since the release is typically one of the most market moving. The estimates of the 80 economists surveyed by Bloomberg range from 38k to 165k with a median of 95k and an average of 98k. Such a wide range of forecasts indicate that even the experts don’t really have a clue. The rally in the US dollar today suggests that the market is not giving much weight to the disappointing ADP employment survey. Despite the recent changes to the calculation methodology and the sharp rise in jobless claims during the month of February, the weakness of those reports have been countered by the strength in the employment indexes of the service and manufacturing sector ISM surveys, the Hudson Employment index and the Monster.com Employment Index. Yesterday’s Beige Book report also indicated that the labor market remained tight in a number of the Fed districts. The current consensus forecast is for 95k new jobs to be added to US payrolls. The CME derivatives auction settled at 82.5k, which suggests that traders are more pessimistic about payroll growth than economists. With Fed Fund futures pricing in a 25bp rate cut by August, the market is already jittery about economic weakness. If companies added less than 75k jobs to payrolls, the dollar could really be in trouble. On the hand, if job growth is anywhere above the prior month’s 111k reading, expect the current dollar strength to continue. In addition to headline release, it is extremely important to look for revisions. A sharp revision to the January number could offset any strength or weakness in the February figure.

...more...

[ozymandius]

21. Dollar Gains as Unemployment Rate Declines During February

March 9 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar advanced for a second day against the yen after a government report showed more jobs were created in the U.S. last month than analysts forecast and the unemployment rate declined.

The U.S. currency has gained 1.2 percent so far this week versus the yen. Traders bought dollars as the data bolstered speculation the Federal Reserve won't cut borrowing costs in the near-term.

``The market dodged the bullet today,'' said Mike Moran, senior currency strategist at Standard Chartered Bank in New York. ``The report tells you that the U.S. economy is still growing at a decent pace. It is a stronger-than-expected report, given that the market has been so exceptionally looking for a low number.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aoFHNvKKdGq4&refer=japan

[AnneD]

45. They went up...

here in Houston.:(

[Ghost Dog]

39. Sterling up following solid U.S. data

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=ukPoundRpt&storyID=2007-03-09T154346Z_01_L09351712_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-STERLING-CLOSE-CORRECTED.XML

LONDON, March 9 (Reuters) - Sterling gained versus the yen, euro and dollar on Friday as U.S. employment figures which were firmer than many people had expected led investors to move back into the carry trade as risk aversion diminished.

...

At 1512 GMT the pound was up 1 percent versus the yen at 227.87 <GBPJPY=R>. It was up a third of a percent against the euro at 67.82 pence <EURGBP=> and 0.15 percent versus the dollar at $1.9306 <GBP=>.

Sterling had been a favourite in carry trades and had suffered during their sharp unwinding last week. As a result, it seems to be benefiting more than the dollar in the current environment of returning risk appetite.

"The initial reaction to the data was that investors bought high yielding currencies as expectations of U.S. rate cuts diminished. This led people to unwind short yield positions that they had taken as risk aversion had built up," said Adrian Schmidt, currency strategist at RBS Financial Markets.

/...

This story appearssomewhat misleading, actually. In fact, the Swiss Franc, along with the Yen and the Euro AND the Pond Sterling all twitched down at 8AM NY time, with Sterlng recovering rather more strongly later. Some big fish and/or plenty of littler fish had been betting the other way, clearly. Let's see the eventually-revised numbers when they come out.

[UpInArms]

10. Hovnanian (home builder) Reports Loss as Housing Market Cools

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/09/business/09home.html?ex=1331096400&en=4cbbdda277a5aae4&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

NEWARK, March 8 (AP) — The home builder Hovnanian Enterprises reported Thursday that it swung to a loss in the first quarter, continuing a trend of bad news in the housing market.

The company, based in Red Bank, N.J., said it lost $57.3 million, or 91 cents a share, for the three months that ended Jan. 31 after paying preferred stock dividends. That contrasted with a profit of $81.43 million, or $1.25 a share, for the same period a year ago.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial were expecting Hovnanian to lose 65 cents a share in the first quarter. The survey reflects Hovnanian’s warning last week that it would have a loss in the first quarter, including one-time write-offs of about $90 million related to operations in Fort Myers-Cape Coral, Fla., and $8 million in other markets.

The pretax charges were $93 million in Florida, the company reported.

Revenue in the first quarter was $1.17 billion, down 8.8 percent from revenue of $1.28 billion in the same period a year ago.

...more...

[UpInArms]

11. Real Estate Promoter (Pinnacle Development Partners) Is Indicted (Ponzi Scheme)

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/09/business/09pinnacle.html?ex=1331096400&en=5807165b2b05069d&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

ATLANTA, March 8 (AP) — A real estate promoter was charged in a federal indictment unsealed Thursday with stealing tens of millions of dollars from investors in a Ponzi scheme and using the money to pay for jewelry, luxury automobiles, and credit card and tax bills.

The promoter, Gene A. O’Neal, 36, of Atlanta, entered a not guilty plea at a hearing in federal court in Atlanta, said Patrick Crosby, a spokesman for the United States attorney’s office. Bond was set at $50,000, but O’Neal was expected to post that and be released, Mr. Crosby said.

The criminal indictment follows a related civil complaint filed by the Securities and Exchange Commission last October against Mr. O’Neal and the firm that he ran, Pinnacle Development Partners.

A federal judge issued a preliminary injunction and appointed a receiver, who has taken charge of the business and assets of Pinnacle Development Partners.

The indictment, dated Tuesday, said the firm and Mr. O’Neal raised about $69 million from some 2,000 investors throughout the United States and several other countries, ostensibly for the purchase of distressed, foreclosed or bank-owned real estate that would be sold at a promised return of 25 percent within 45 or 60 days.

...more...

[ozymandius]

12. Economists warn Fed on inflation expectations

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- Several economists warn the Federal Reserve and other central banks in a paper released Thursday against relying too much on inflation expectations to assess whether their policies are indeed keeping prices stable.

"Our data findings serve as something of a cautionary note for policy-makers against excessive reliance on measures of inflation expectations as indicators of policy effectiveness," wrote the economists in a paper on the inflation process to be presented at a conference Friday.

-cut-

The authors of the paper, "Understanding the Evolving Inflation Process," are Stephen Cecchetti, Peter Hooper, Bruce Kasman, Kermit Schoenholtz and Mark Watson.

Fed officials often cite the importance of keeping inflation expectations low as way to keep inflation itself under control. If inflation remains too high for too long, businesses and consumers begin to make future plans for spending and investing on the expectation that prices will rise by a certain amount, leading to inflationary pressures.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/08/news/economy/inflation.reut/index.htm?postversion=2007030816

[texpatriot2004]

15. K & R nm

[ozymandius]

17. Most of nation's retailers see disappointing February sales

NEW YORK -- The traditional excuse for disappointing retail sales in February -- cold weather -- may not be enough to explain sluggish results posted by U.S. merchants from Gap Inc. to AnnTaylor Corp. Unappealing fashions may also have something to do with it.

As merchants reported their sales results Thursday, the disappointments went beyond the usual stragglers like Gap and included stores such as teen stalwart Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Bebe Stores Inc. reported its first monthly decline in 46 months, blaming the weakness on not having enough trendy tops.

-cut-

Cohen noted that retailers' biggest mistake is that stores are not in step with customers' penchant for buying clothing to be worn immediately; merchants display the new merchandise well ahead of when the season begins. The late arrival of winter weather helped clear out cold weather items and boosted sales in January. But that meant there was little for shoppers to buy last month, as they had little interest in spring wear.

-cut-

Retailers also are grappling with a slowing economy, particularly a weakening housing market, that could challenge shoppers in the months ahead. Ken Perkins, president of RetailMetrics LLC, a research company in Swampscott, Mass., said defaults and delinquencies in the mortgage industry -- coupled with the decline of mortgage equity withdrawals that give consumers extra cash -- could curtail spending.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/306756_retailsales09.html

[Ghost Dog]

27. Alice in Retail Wonderland

http://retail.seekingalpha.com/article/29083
Posted on Mar 9th, 2007



Barry Ritholtz submits: Let us now delve into the nether world of Retail-Sales-Excuse-making. Those of you who may be unfamiliar with this land are advised to brush up on your Lewis Carroll, as we are now about to chase the white rabbit down the rabbit hole.

When December sales were announced, they were disappointing. "Do not worry!" we were told, for the holiday shopping season no longer ends on December 25th. Gift cards were to be the savior of retail, and all manner of data were trotted out to prove how they had been growing 25% year-over-year, where this many billions of dollars, were about to hit the malls and stores after New Year's Eve, you will see.

So said the Knave of Hearts.

Alas, it was not to be. With December behind us, in January, we were told retail sales were bad because "It was too warm." If your business is selling mittens and scarves and winter coats, this would make some sense, as it was, after all, one of the warmest Januarys on record.

The ever curious Alice asked "What happened to all of those billions of dollars in gift cards that were the rationale for the weak December? Why would good weather, unseasonably warm winter weather, 60 degrees in the Northeast weather, prevent those gift card recipients from spending their booty?"

In an illogical land, Alice had unfortunately reached a logical point: Why would weather - assuming it wasn't tornadoes or floods or locusts or slaying of the first born - have prevented all those billions of dollars in gift cards from being redeemed? Memory fails to recall shoppers at Best Buy (BBY), Amazon (AMZN), Circuit City (CC), or Home Depot (HD) expressing issues with unseasonably nice weather as why they didn't exchange their gift cards for goods. Live and learn.

Which brings us to February. Alice, our astute observer of retail, asked "If January was too warm for retailers, then surely the cold snap in February must have helped!" But it was no aid, as February sales fell below expectations, a disappointment, despite the respite from January's heat wave.

Pity poor Alice, who has not yet learned that going through the Retail Looking Glass, walking toward your desired destination only gets you further and further away. Thus, if warm weather prevents the sale of winter garments, then cold weather prevents even more sales.

This is at it should be, for "Wonderland" is after all, an imaginary place. In the world of Retail, the Mad Hatter and the March Hare are at a never-ending tea party, concocting excuses and rationalizations, but refusing to admit whatever the Queen of Hearts can plainly see: a clear trend of slowing, disappointing sales.

After the Tea Party ended, there was but a single smile - the one left behind by the Cheshire Cat, who knowing what was coming next - a recession as likely as not - wandered off, leaving those at the tea party to set about the new month's work: Coming up with the next nonsensical excuse for why March sales will have disappointed.

And then Alice awoke . . .

[AnneD]

46. Clever article

well writting and backed up with facts.

[Ghost Dog]

49. In fact...

[ozymandius]

19. pre-open numbers and blather

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +16.3. Early sentiment continues to improve as today's jobs data silencing concerns of a recession clears the way for investors to build on the foundation it established Tuesday. While the stage appears set for stocks to finish the week on a strong note, it is highly unlikely the market will recoup all that was lost last week. As of yesterday’s close, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up 1.2%, 1.1% and 0.8%, respectively, over the last four sessions; but those gains pale in comparison to sharp declines of 4.2%, 4.4% and 5.8% last week.

08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.0. Futures indications are now signaling a strong start for stocks as an encouraging jobs report provides more evidence that a soft landing for the economy remains on track. Nonfarm payrolls in February rose 97,000 (consensus 100,000) while payroll figures for January and December were upwardly revised to account for a net gain of 55,000 new jobs. Hourly earnings rose 0.4% (consensus 0.3%), bringing the year/year rate to 4.1%; the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.5% from 4.6%. Bonds are getting hammered in response to the data as the yield on the 10-year note (-14/32) rises to 4.56%.

[Ghost Dog]

51. 2:20 PM Update (Starting to bleed)...

Dow 12,253.33 Down 7.37 (0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,379.80 Down 7.93 (0.33%)
S&P 500 1,400.19 Down 1.70 (0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.5950% Up 0.0860
NYSE Volume 1,874,146,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,337,862,000

2:00 pm : The Dow and S&P 500 are now sitting alongside the Nasdaq in negative territory as reluctance on the part of buyers continues to leave the door open for sellers. Profit taking in almost every area of Technology, today's worst performing sector (-0.5%), continues to be the biggest obstacle preventing the bulls from ending the week on an upbeat note.

Another round of hawkish Fed speak is contributing to the market's recent pullback. Vice Chairman Kohn said he's unsure about the accuracy of expectation measures and the roles they play in wage and price shifts. Richmond Fed President Lacker said expectations are less stable than surveys suggest and that inflation expectations are not anchored enough. DJ30 -10.76 NASDAQ -7.01 SOX +0.4% SP500 -2.19 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1356/1534/1.28 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1282/1891/850 mln

1:30 pm : The major averages are now trading in split fashion as Consumer Discretionary and Financials become the latest sectors to turn negative. The latter sector is now weighing comments from Fed Governor Susan Bies, who recently said the sub-prime problem may be just starting and that regulators are concerned about "payment shock."

Further deterioration in Treasuries, with the spread between the 2-year and 10-year note slipping deeper into inversion, is also diminishing the desire to own rate-sensitive banks and brokers. The 10-year note is now down 21 ticks at session lows to yield 4.59%. Homebuilders extending their year-to-date decline to 11% and retailers (e.g. JWN -2.6%, FD -1.1%, TJX -1.1%, and LTD -1.1%) consolidating some of yesterday's gains are weighing on the Discretionary sector. DJ30 +13.22 NASDAQ -1.18 SP500 +0.35 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1282/1595/1.14 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1136/2017/774 mln

1:00 pm : The indices break out of their recent trading range, but to the dismay of the bulls, its to the downside. Technology, which was a notable source of support early on due to a rally in semiconductors, has recently slipped into negative territory, removing influential leadership and briefly pushing the Nasdaq below the flat line. Chip stocks are still getting some support from National Semiconductor (NSM 26.26 +0.98), which lent some reassurance about the sector's growth prospects after issuing an optimistic outlook. Anticipation of a positive mid-quarter update prompting a couple of analysts to upgrade Texas Instruments (TXN 32.46 +0.76) is also noteworthy.

However, a 5.3% sell-off in Yahoo! (YHOO 29.08 -1.63), following reports it may lose up $200-250 mln from its DSL pact with AT&T (T 36.62 +0.11), now earmarks Internet Software & Services as today's second worst performing S&P industry group (-1.4%).DJ30 +10.34 NASDAQ +0.40 SOX +0.5% SP500 +1.13 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1183/1687/1.03 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1053/2088/700 mln

12:30 pm : No real change in the proceedings as the afternoon session gets underway. All 10 economic sectors remain positive, but the day's largest gains are still coming from the least influential areas, like Materials, Utilities and Telecom.

The latter is getting an added lift from Alltel (AT 63.91 +3.74), which has spiked to a new 52-week high amid rumors that it pulled out of a conference, leading to speculation that the "strategic alternatives" announced on February 20 might lead to a takeover deal earlier than anticipated. DJ30 +29.80 NASDAQ +4.81 SP500 +3.49 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1187/1667/962 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1109/2010/636 mln

12:00 pm : With the market looking for some assertion that the economy isn't headed for recession, investors have found some comfort in today's employment report.

Before the bell, February nonfarm payrolls rose a healthy 97,000, which was better than many on Wall Street had feared. Payrolls for the prior two months were upwardly revised to account for a net gain of 55,000 new jobs, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.5% and wage gains remain supportive for consumer spending.

The report has helped ease the worst of recession fears and initially paved the way for market bulls to keep silencing the bears' argument about overbought conditions. However, with the data also diminishing hopes for a Fed easing anytime soon, with fed funds futures now pricing in a 32% chance of a rate cut in late June, versus 66% chance yesterday, some skepticism has resurfaced intraday to pare some of the market's early advance.

More negative developments in sub-prime mortgage lending and commentary in the homebuilding space saying that the housing slowdown may not have bottomed yet are also stalling the bulls' efforts to more aggressively make their case that last week's sell-off was overdone. DJ30 +23.07 NASDAQ +4.07 SP500 +3.16 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1127/1690/866 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1078/1998/552 mln

11:30 am : Equities are still on the offensive, but barely, as the recent wave of renewed skepticism about the pace of economic growth continues to act as an overhang. New Century Financial (NEW 3.16 -0.71) saying it has failed to obtain relief from several lenders, which leaves analysts believing bankruptcy is now imminent, is exacerbating the nervousness about sub-prime mortgage delinquencies spilling over into the broader economy.

Homebuilder Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV 28.66 -1.94) swinging to a wider than expected loss in Q1, cutting its full-year guidance and saying it is not yet confident that the housing slowdown has bottomed is also stalling the opening-bell momentum fueled by a healthy jobs report. DJ30 +17.98 NASDAQ +3.43 SP500 +1.97 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1168/1607/742 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1216/1821/450 mln

11:00 am : After turning negative within the last 30 minutes, the influential Financials, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary sectors have clawed their way back into the green.

However, while those turnarounds have helped the indices bounce off their worst levels, key sector gains remain modest at best and offer little conviction behind the rebound. In fact, the day's best performance is still coming from the sector with the smallest weighting on the S&P 500 -- Materials (+0.6%), which further underscores the day's lackluster performance so far. DJ30 +15.33 NASDAQ +3.30 SP500 +1.77 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1182/1550/610 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1234/1748/360 mln

10:30 am : The major averages now trade in split fashion as the nervousness that has accompanied an overly pessimistic market of late going into the weekend creeps in earlier than anticipated.

While investors initially breathed a sigh of relief following a better than feared employment report, participants are also dealing with the data diminishing hopes for a Fed easing anytime soon. Fed funds futures are now pricing in only a 32% chance of an interest rate cut in late June, versus 66% likelihood yesterday.DJ30 +6.04 NASDAQ -2.10 SP500 -0.65 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1184/1452/460 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1235/1673/236 mln

10:00 am : The indices are off their opening highs but the bulk of industry leadership remains positive. Of the 10 sectors trading higher, Materials is pacing the way but leadership from Financials and Technology are acting as the biggest sources of support.

Tech is getting its biggest lift from strength in chip stocks after National Semiconductor (NSM 26.80 +1.52), which is surging 6%, issued an optimistic outlook. Texas Instruments (TXN 32.55 +0.85) is up nearly 3% after being upgraded by two analysts and is another reason behind the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index building on gains that yesterday inched back into positive territory for the year. DJ30 +40.71 NASDAQ +6.83 SOX +1.2% SP500 +4.11 NASDAQ Vol 242 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 621/2023/82 mln

09:40 am : Stocks open on a high note as investors rally around employers providing more evidence that the U.S. economy continues to weather weakness in housing and manufacturing, and that wage gains remain supportive for consumer spending.

February nonfarm payrolls rose a healthy 97,000 (consensus 100,000) while payrolls for the prior two months were upwardly revised to account for a net gain of 55,000 new jobs. Since that is consistent with underlying real GDP growth near 3%, given the long-term trend of 2% productivity growth, the worst of recession fears have been mitigated, giving the bulls a green light to keep silencing the bears' argument about overbought conditions. DJ30 +59.45 NASDAQ +15.19 SP500 +7.18 NASDAQ Vol 86 mln NYSE Vol 48 mln

[Ghost Dog]

52. 7th anniversary of the beginning of a painful lesson

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/popping-internet-bubble-should-have/story.aspx?guid=%7BBC56B6E1%2DF3A9%2D4DE7%2D91F9%2D3BA84FE9E105%7D
Commentary: What the popping of the Internet bubble should have taught us

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- This weekend marks a dubious anniversary: the 7th anniversary of the beginning of the end of the Internet bubble.

It was on March 10, 2000, that the Nasdaq Composite index closed at its all-time high of 5,048.62. By the time all the air in the Internet bubble had been let out, some 2-1/2 years later on Oct.9, 2002, that benchmark stood at 1,114.11 some 78% lower than where it stood at the top.

That drop was so huge, in fact, that even with the Nasdaq's 114% gain since that bear-market low, it still stands today nearly 53% lower than where it stood prior to the bubble bursting.

No wonder so few are inclined to take note of this anniversary.

I nevertheless think it is important, if for no other reason than to ask this question: How unusual is it for a major market benchmark to be this far below its previous high, this far after the bear market has ended?

The answer turns out to be fairly complex. In general, I found when reviewing the historical record, the speed with which a market index recovered its bear-market losses is a function of how diversified it is. Dividends are another crucial factor.

Neither of these factors supports a speedy recovery in the Nasdaq.

Over-the-counter stocks typically pay few or no dividends, of course. And the index is not particularly diversified. As a cap-weighted index, it is dominated by a relatively few of the largest-cap over-the-counter stocks. This was particularly the case in March 2000, when Cisco Systems, Inc. was the single largest-cap stock of any U.S. publicly-traded company.

So it is not surprising that the Nasdaq is still so far behind its March 2000 high.

A brief review of previous bear markets will help provide some helpful context.

/more...

[ozymandius]

20. Super-rich get richer

The rich just keep getting richer. There are now a record 946 dollar billionaires around the globe, according to the latest Forbes ranking; making their fortunes in everything from telecoms to steel to Chinese dumplings.

For the 13th year straight, the ranking was topped by Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, who is rapidly becoming as well known for giving his money away as he is for accumulating it. Mr Gates' fortune rose $6bn last year to $56bn (£29bn).

His friend, the wisecracking investment expert Warren Buffett, remained in second spot. His fortune rose $10bn during the year to reach $52bn. Like Mr Gates, he has promised to give virtually all of his money to charitable causes. Third on the list is the Mexican telecoms entrepreneur Carlos Slim Helu, who added $19bn to his wealth, taking him to $49bn.

The combined wealth on the list grew 35% during the year to $3.5 trillion on the back of rising property prices, commodities and stock markets. Luisa Kroll who helped compile the list at Forbes described it as "kind of an extraordinary year". In the previous list there were just 793 billionaires.

http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,2030259,00.html

[ozymandius]

23. Markets are open for bidness.

as they leap into action

9:34
Dow 12,320.14 Up 59.44 (0.48%)
Nasdaq 2,403.24 Up 15.51 (0.65%)
S&P 500 1,408.86 Up 6.97 (0.50%)
10-Yr Bond 4.587% Up 0.078
NYSE Volume 95,725,000
Nasdaq Volume 100,818,000

[Ghost Dog]

28. Tokyo stocks continue moderate recovery

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/207b05aa-cdeb-11db-839d-000b5df10621.html

The Japanese stock market continued cautious recovery from the recent market turmoil, rising moderately on Friday.

The Nikkei inched up 0.4 per cent to 17,164.04, boosted by strong rises in securities companies and the real estate sector, and by strong figures for machinery orders. The broader Topix rose 0.5 per cent to 1,730.31.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

29. Foreign sellers sparked Tokyo fall

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/91abdf20-cdae-11db-839d-000b5df10621.html

A sudden halt in foreign buying of Japanese shares contributed to the sharp fall in the stock market last week, official figures suggest.

Foreigners switched from being net buyers to net sellers of Japanese equities for the first time in eight weeks, the Ministry of Finance revealed yesterday.

The figures back the widely-held theory among Tokyo analysts that a sudden waning of foreign support for the Japanese market was behind last week’s slide. Analysts blamed overseas investors’ fears that the strong yen would hit exporters’ earnings, as well as a general global flight out of equities and into safer assets.

Foreign investors sold a net Y22bn of Japanese stocks last week, according to the government. The figure was an abrupt turnround from heavy net buying of Y618bn the week before.

Foreigners play an increasingly dominant role in Japanese equities. Their share of the stock market’s capitalisation has steadily risen to more than a quarter and they account for more than half of trading.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

30. JGBs rise on stock doubts, ignore machinery data

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070309:MTFH33187_2007-03-09_07-21-05_T1634&type=comktNews&rpc=44

TOKYO, March 9 (Reuters) - Japanese government bonds rose on Friday, shrugging off strong machinery orders data and a rise in the Nikkei share average, as investors harboured doubts over whether the sell-off in global equities has run its course.

JGB prices were also supported as market participants bought back short positions in March futures ahead of the contract's expiry on Friday, traders said.

"Investors are prepared for a stock correction as steep as the one last May when the Nikkei fell some 3000 points in a month," said Akihiko Yokoyama, chief JGB strategist at JPMorgan Securities. "They have not completely stopped worrying about equities."

The 10-year yield <JP10YTN=JBTC> dropped one basis point to 1.605 percent, in sight of a two-month trough of 1.590 percent touched last week.

Data showed on Friday that core machinery orders, a key gauge of corporate capital spending, rose 3.9 percent in January from the previous month. That was well above the consensus forecast for a 0.5 percent rise and followed a 0.7 percent December drop.

The data signalled that brisk corporate activity continues to support a steady economic recovery.

"Investors did not take their cue from the data as they continue to focus on the recent turmoil in global financial markets," said Hidenori Suezawa, chief fixed-income strategist at Daiwa Securities SMBC.

/...

See also: Japan machinery orders stronger than expected

[Ghost Dog]

31. HK blue chips end lower; H shrs gain on China Life

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070309:MTFH34181_2007-03-09_08-05-10_HFB078029&type=comktNews&rpc=44

HONG KONG, March 9 (Reuters) - Hong Kong blue chips edged down 0.2 percent on Friday as China Mobile (0941.HK: Quote, Profile , Research) fell before next week's blue-chip index revision which will see the weighting of the heavyweight trimmed by about five percentage points.

Hong Kong-listed shares in mainland companies <.HSCE> gained 0.8 percent as China Life (2628.HK: Quote, Profile , Research) advanced before its inclusion in the index on Monday.

The benchmark Hang Seng Index <.HSI> ended at 19,134.88.

/.

[Ghost Dog]

33. China confirms agency for forex reserves

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/f006cc9e-ce01-11db-b5c8-000b5df10621.html

China will establish a new body to manage a portion of its $1,000bn-plus in foreign reserves, Jin Renqing, the Finance Minister, said on Friday, in the first top-level confirmation of plans for a state investment agency.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

34. China axes foreigners’ tax breaks

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/9fa78926-cd9f-11db-839d-000b5df10621.html

China ended almost 30 years of favourable treatment for foreign companies on Thursday with the introduction of a measure to equalise corporate tax rates paid by local and overseas enterprises.

The law, introduced at the National People’s Congress, will immediately benefit Chinese companies, which have long complained about discrimination in favour of foreigners.

It will see a single tax rate of 25 per cent levied on all companies. Under the current system, Chinese companies have been taxed at up to 33 per cent while foreign enterprises have paid as little as 15 per cent.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

35. China's Brilliance heads European invasion

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6432837.stm

Some 15 years after introducing Korean cars to Europe, Professor Hans-Ulrich Sachs is leading the charge from China.

And this time he reckons it is going to be a breeze.

"In the early 1990s, the technology gap was much greater than it is today," the 54-year-old car industry executive points out.

Professor Sachs' car importing firm HSO Motors Europe has started bringing in Brilliance models from China.

And relative to leading marques, these models are much more advanced than the Hyundai models he imported from Korea in the early 1990s.

...

With 15,000 predicted sales this year and 20-25,000 next year, initial targets are low, Professor Sachs acknowledges.

But that was the case with the Koreans too when they entered the market in the early 1990s. These days they sell several hundreds of thousands of cars here, he points out.

"In terms of quality, I don't think we're so far behind as some of our competitors would have it," he says, pointing out that Brilliance cars have Mitsubishi engines and share paint shop facilities with BMW, its joint venture partner in China.

...

By the end of the decade, Brilliance aims to export almost 160,000 cars from China, but this will not happen without a great deal of effort.

...

In 2005, China exported some 173,000 cars, mainly to Africa, the Middle East and South East Asia.

And with other Chinese car makers - most notably SAIC and Chery - also preparing to start exporting to both Europe and the US, the level is set to soar.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

32. Asia Stocks Week Ahead-Volatility set to stay

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070309:MTFH33758_2007-03-09_07-48-43_HKG262364&type=comktNews&rpc=44

HONG KONG, March 9 (Reuters) - Another week of choppy Asian stock market action awaits investors as concerns about the sustainability of a global market bounce continue to gnaw at confidence.

/... :eyes:

[Ghost Dog]

36. Airbus posts its first ever loss

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6433401.stm

Airbus has posted its first loss despite delivering a record 434 planes, dragging down parent firm EADS. Delays dogging the A380 superjumbo, problems developing the A350 XWB and a strong dollar triggered the loss for 2006 of 572m euros ($752.3m; £389.4m). As a result, annual net profits at aerospace giant EADS plunged from 1.676bn euros to just 99m euros.

...

Another reason for the losses is the recently-announced restructuring programme at Airbus, called Power8, which will see about 10,000 jobs go and several factories sold to partners. France will be worst hit with 4,300 job losses. Germany will see 3,700 jobs go, while the UK and Spain will see 1,600 and 400 jobs cut respectively.

...

The situation would not get any better in 2007, Airbus warned, because although deliveries of aircraft were expected to grow, Airbus revenues would "most likely" be affected by the weak dollar and competitive pressures.

EADS also hailed strong orders in its defence business, with the first deliveries of Eurocopter UH-72A Lakota helicopters to the US army.

Overall, sales were up 15% at EADS - and up 30% in its defence business - to reach 39.4bn euros.

However, operating profits at EADS were down 86% to 399m euros, after a 2.85bn euro profit in 2005.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

37. Retail share rally sparks European stock gains

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=eurMktRpt&storyID=2007-03-09T164152Z_01_L09258508_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-EUROPE-STOCKS-URGENT.XML

LONDON, March 9 (Reuters) - European stocks closed Friday's session in positive territory, buoyed by retailers as the prospect of merger activity rippled through the sector, although a cautious tone prevailed after the recent sharp slide.

...

The pan-European FTSEurofirst index <.FTEU3> of 300 leading shares closed up 0.2 percent at 1,489.0 points.

Around Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 .FTSE gained 0.3 percent, while Germany's DAX <.GDAXI> added 0.1 percent and France's CAC 40 <.FCHI> rose 0.3 percent.

/..

[Ghost Dog]

38. SMI Closes In Negative Territory

http://www.postfinance.ch/pf/content/en/topics/etrade/news/stockreportchev.html

Swiss shares reversed early afternoon gains and closed Friday's quiet session in the red even though Wall Street opened slightly higher after the latest US jobless data eased economic concern.

The Swiss Market Index closed 21.83 points or 0.24% lower at 8,933.87 with 16 gainers and 9 decliners. The broader Swiss Performance Index edged up 2.35 points or 0.03% to 7,126.88.

...

Luxury goods group Richemont climbed 1.51% to CHF 67.40 while Swatch bearer shares jumped 1.43% to CHF 302.25 and registered shares rose 1.24% to CHF 61.00. Elsewhere among gainers, Julius Baer advanced 1.58% to CHF 160.50, continuing its recent strong run, and Nestle closed 0.43% higher at CHF 472.00. Banking heavyweight Credit Suisse climbed back to the black; up 0.11% to CHF 88.00.

Roche slipped 0.28% to CHF 215.60 after the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence today said it will not pay for the group's once-a-day lung cancer pill Tarceva, saying it is too expensive and of limited use. Novartis, which was trading ex-dividend of CHF 1.35 today, plunged 2.12% to CHF 69.30. In addition, Goldman Sachs lowered the price target for both pharma giants. Elswhere in the negative column, Lonza fell 1.06% to CHF 111.70 and banking group UBS dropped 0.69% to CHF 71.90.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

41. FTSE rises as bid talk rife, but miners cap gains

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=londonMktRpt&storyID=2007-03-09T171835Z_01_L09403911_RTRIDST_0_RCMARKETS-BRITAIN-STOCKS-UPDATE-2.XML

LONDON, March 9 (Reuters) - Britain's top share index advanced amid strong M&A talk on Friday, as Alliance Boots (AB.L: Quote, Profile , Research) led a raft of stocks soaring on bid talk, but overall market gains were tempered by lacklustre miners.

...

The FTSE 100 .FTSE ended 17.5 points, or 0.28 percent, up at 6,245.2, having regained more than 2 percent over the past week as European markets advanced on sentiment that that the sell-off which shook global markets last week had finally subsided.

"We've had a very good week," said Robert Parkes, a UK equity strategist at HSBC. "We don't think M&A activity has peaked yet, we think all the key drivers are in place," he added.

...

In the UK, mining share falls on lacklustre metal prices capped the FTSE 100's gains, with Xstrata (XTA.L: Quote, Profile , Research) down 2.6 percent, Lonmin (LMI.L: Quote, Profile , Research) losing 1.5 percent and Antofagasta (ANTO.L: Quote, Profile , Research) shedding 1 percent.

Pharmaceutical company GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L: Quote, Profile , Research) dropped 1 percent after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to "sell" from "neutral".

/...

[Ghost Dog]

47. EU leaders to make Europe change lightbulbs

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070309/sc_nm/energy_eu_lightbulbs_dc

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - European homes, offices and streets will have to use energy-efficient lighting by the end of the decade, EU leaders decided on Friday.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

48. Larger CIA and DoD Privatization Scandal Emerging from Walter Reed Story and US Attorney Firing

DU: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x377023

Top GOP Figures Profited from Privatization of VA Hospital, CIA Contracting

A large global hedge fund, Cerberus Capital Management (dba, Cerberus-Gabriel), is at the center of an emerging Pentagon and CIA contracting scandal that has the attention of three Congressional Committees.

This scandal involves the mismanagement of VA hospital facilities privatized during the Bush-Cheney Administration, as well as intelligence abuses by private CIA contractors with financial ties to major GOP leaders and institutions..

In each case, the companies under investigation have links to prominent GOP figures, including Vice President Dick Cheney, former Vice President Dan Quayle, former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, and several Republican Congressmen indicted for corruption involving kickbacks from defense contractors. The Republican Congressional Campaign Commitee (RCC) has also received substantial contributions from conservative fund managers running Cerberus, a virually unregulated $30 billion hedge fund, which owns the second largest bank in Israel.

The Cerberus scandal involves its holding, International American Products (IAP) Worldwide Services, awarded a $120 million contract to manage facilities at Walter Reed, is only the latest in a long line. IAP’s President, Alfred V. Neffgen, was formerly Chief Operating Officer for KBR's government operations group, which was forced to repay tens of millions of dollars to the Defense Department for food and fuel overcharges in Iraq. IAP has other contracting connections with Dick Cheney’s Halliburton/KBR. Most recently, IAP bid on part of the Iraq oil reconstruction project as a partner with Halliburton KBR. The Army Times reports about Halliburton tie-in: http://www.armytimes.com/news/2007/03/Weightmansubpoena

/...

[AnneD]

55. We see this in health care so often as to be endemic.....

They (ins cos, ceos) come in and tell the staff that there is a Nursing Shortage and we can't get anyone-so they give you more pts or hire these low cost HB1 visa nurses that are too intimidated to speak out or hire aides and have them do invasive procedures on the cheap. (I swear this is a true story-one hospital tried to have housekeeping crossed trained in Foley Catheter placements-and they couldn't understand why Nurses objected-I mean who would you want putting a tube in your bladder, the janitor or the Nurse.). They overload you so you can't take a break or lunch and only have 12 hr shift. They tell you you are suppose to be a supervisor so they can worm out of giving you OT and keep you from unionizing.

They then ration your supplies, forcing you to beg for linen, dressings, etc. And when it is all said and done they make such obscene profits on your hard work. The CEO gets several million in bonuses and you are lucky to get cost of living. Oh, and later on, your ceo is found guilty of medicare Medicaid fraud-the whole time you were there getting underpaid for an honest day's work.

That's why so many Nurses are leaving the profession many new grads leave after 5 years. The lucky ones use that degree to get into a different area if they can. Now, instead of beefing up the Nursing schools-they are shutting them down, and not for want of students. They want the cheap import. But it will eventually catch up with them because the boomer Nurses are starting to retire-and if they are like most of my friends-they are tired of being used and abused and will not come back once the shoes are hung up. I have 3-4 more years if I can hang on then that is it for me.

[Ghost Dog]

56. You are not alone, AnneD. n/t

[ozymandius]

58. OMFG! This sounds like a James Ellroy novel.

Yet it's the truth as told by AnneD!

The same shit happens in Georgia. Once it was under the once-invincible Democrats. Now the Republicans are playing the same scam since they took over the legislature.

Good news though for those who oppose this brand of evil: information travels too swiftly these days for this to survive for long. I'm hopeful, at least, that is the case.

[Ghost Dog]

59. What AnneD has to say

sounds to me very true, ozy.

[Ghost Dog]

50. The futuristic battlefield

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/IC09Aa01.html

"We will export death and violence to the four corners of the Earth in defense of our great nation." - President George W Bush in Bob Woodward's book Plan of Attack

While most Americans are concentrating on extricating the US government from the debacle in Iraq, and most peace activists are simultaneously concerned that the Bush administration will launch a war against Iran, the leaders of the Pentagon are

planning how to win wars 10, 20, and 50 years from now.

Washington is preparing for every contingency, from rooting out a handful of suspected terrorists halfway around the world to possible wars with Russia and China.

The Defense Department's drawing boards are groaning under the weight of blueprints for sustaining total military dominance of land, sea, air and outer space throughout this century. The costs of supporting the US government's martial propensities will be astronomical in terms of the social programs and benefits denied American working people, not to mention the consequences of living in a state of permanent warfare.

/...

& DU: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x267663

[UpInArms]

53. 2:55 EST numbers and blather

Dow 12,254.45 6.25 (0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,381.18 6.55 (0.27%)
S&P 500 1,400.30 1.59 (0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.589% 0.08

NYSE Volume 2,073,882,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,475,177,000

bulls, market internals now carry a negative slant. As reflected in the A/D line, decliners on the NYSE have recently edged pass advancers for the first time today and now hold a slight 16-to-15 edge.

Those on the Nasdaq hold a 15-to-13 advantage while the ratio of down to up volumes paints even more of a bearish picture at the Big Board and the Composite. DJ30 -25.01 NASDAQ -9.75 SP500 -3.44 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1556/1361/1.35 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1626/1577/930 mln

2:00 pm : The Dow and S&P 500 are now sitting alongside the Nasdaq in negative territory as reluctance on the part of buyers continues to leave the door open for sellers. Profit taking in almost every area of Technology, today's worst performing sector (-0.5%), continues to be the biggest obstacle preventing the bulls from ending the week on an upbeat note.

Another round of hawkish Fed speak is contributing to the market's recent pullback. Vice Chairman Kohn said he's unsure about the accuracy of expectation measures and the roles they play in wage and price shifts. Richmond Fed President Lacker said expectations are less stable than surveys suggest and that inflation expectations are not anchored enough. DJ30 -10.76 NASDAQ -7.01 SOX +0.4% SP500 -2.19 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1356/1534/1.28 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1282/1891/850 mln

1:30 pm : The major averages are now trading in split fashion as Consumer Discretionary and Financials become the latest sectors to turn negative. The latter sector is now weighing comments from Fed Governor Susan Bies, who recently said the sub-prime problem may be just starting and that regulators are concerned about "payment shock."

Further deterioration in Treasuries, with the spread between the 2-year and 10-year note slipping deeper into inversion, is also diminishing the desire to own rate-sensitive banks and brokers. The 10-year note is now down 21 ticks at session lows to yield 4.59%. Homebuilders extending their year-to-date decline to 11% and retailers (e.g. JWN -2.6%, FD -1.1%, TJX -1.1%, and LTD -1.1%) consolidating some of yesterday's gains are weighing on the Discretionary sector. DJ30 +13.22 NASDAQ -1.18 SP500 +0.35 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1282/1595/1.14 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1136/2017/774 mln

1:00 pm : The indices break out of their recent trading range, but to the dismay of the bulls, its to the downside. Technology, which was a notable source of support early on due to a rally in semiconductors, has recently slipped into negative territory, removing influential leadership and briefly pushing the Nasdaq below the flat line. Chip stocks are still getting some support from National Semiconductor (NSM 26.26 +0.98), which lent some reassurance about the sector's growth prospects after issuing an optimistic outlook. Anticipation of a positive mid-quarter update prompting a couple of analysts to upgrade Texas Instruments (TXN 32.46 +0.76) is also noteworthy.

However, a 5.3% sell-off in Yahoo! (YHOO 29.08 -1.63), following reports it may lose up $200-250 mln from its DSL pact with AT&T (T 36.62 +0.11), now earmarks Internet Software & Services as today's second worst performing S&P industry group (-1.4%).DJ30 +10.34 NASDAQ +0.40 SOX +0.5% SP500 +1.13 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1183/1687/1.03 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1053/2088/700 mln

12:30 pm : No real change in the proceedings as the afternoon session gets underway. All 10 economic sectors remain positive, but the day's largest gains are still coming from the least influential areas, like Materials, Utilities and Telecom.

The latter is getting an added lift from Alltel (AT 63.91 +3.74), which has spiked to a new 52-week high amid rumors that it pulled out of a conference, leading to speculation that the "strategic alternatives" announced on February 20 might lead to a takeover deal earlier than anticipated. DJ30 +29.80 NASDAQ +4.81 SP500 +3.49 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1187/1667/962 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1109/2010/636 mln

[Roland99]

54. Closing up shop for the week...

DJIA 12,276.32 +15.62 +0.13%
Nasdaq 2,387.55 -0.18 -0.01%
S&P 500 1,402.85 +0.96 +0.07%
Dow Util 476.23 +1.19 +0.25%
NYSE 9,094.99 +16.34 +0.18%
AMEX 2,094.46 +18.86 +0.91%
Russell 2000 785.12 +3.98 +0.51%
Semcond 475.18 +3.43 +0.73%
Gold future 652.00 -3.50 -0.53%
30-Year Bond 4.72% +0.07 +1.57%
10-Year Bond 4.59% +0.08 +1.77%

[ozymandius]

57. with blather accompaniment

Have a great weekend everyone!

Ozy :hi:

4:20 pm : The market finished mixed and relatively flat Friday as investors weighed an encouraging jobs report and plunging oil prices against more discouraging developments in the housing sector, with particular interest again on sub-prime mortgages.

Before the bell, February nonfarm payrolls rose a healthy 97,000, which was better than many on Wall Street had feared. Payrolls for the prior two months were upwardly revised to account for an additional 55,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.5%, near a five-year low, helping to ease the worst of recession fears.

The rise in hourly earnings was initially viewed as a supportive factor for consumer spending; but as a closely-watched Fed gauge, the component's inflationary potential was not overlooked as the report also diminished hopes for a Fed easing anytime soon. As a result, some of the nervousness that has accompanied an overly pessimistic market of late going into the weekend crept in earlier than anticipated and, within an hour of the opening bell, the market erased all of its early gains and traded sideways throughout the rest of the day.

Some Fed speak also weighed on investors' minds. Fed Governor Susan Bies saying the sub-prime problem may just be starting exacerbated earlier concerns about mortgage delinquencies spilling over into the broader economy. New Century Financial (NEW 3.21 -0.66) said last night it stopped accepting loan applications, which left some analysts believing that bankruptcy is now imminent.

Homebuilder Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV 29.28 -1.32) swinging to a wider than expected Q1 loss, cutting its full-year guidance and saying it is not yet confident that the housing slowdown has bottomed yet also stalled the opening-bell momentum fueled by the healthy jobs report.

Not even oil prices closing near session lows was enough of an incentive to fully motivate the bulls. Crude for April delivery plunged 2.5% to $60.10/bbl as warm weather forecasts for next week are expected to curb demand for heating oil. However, with the commodity flying under the radar of late, taking a back seat to issues like sub-prime lending and recession fears, its sell-off was largely ignored. DJ30 +15.62 NASDAQ -0.18 SP500 +0.96 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1333/1645/1.93 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1353/1883/1.36 bln