STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday March 12

[ozymandius]

Monday March 12, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 679 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2268 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1972 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1932
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 9
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 9, 2007

Dow... 12,276.32 +15.62 (+0.13%)
Nasdaq... 2,387.55 -0.18 (-0.01%)
S&P 500... 1,402.85 +0.96 (+0.07%)
Gold future... 652.00 -3.50 (-0.54%)
30-Year Bond 4.72% +0.07 (+1.57%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.59% +0.08 (+1.77%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Market WrapUp

Another Look at the 4-Year Cycle
BY TIM W. WOOD

s the market advanced up out of the June/July 2006 low, many began proclaiming those lows as having marked the 4-year cycle low. With the last obvious 4-year cycle low having occurred on October 10, 2002 at 7,197.49 and when the October 2006 low that most were expecting did not occur, most pointed at the June/July lows as having marked the 4-year cycle low. I can understand why on the surface most people would have thought this. But that was the easy answer for the market not making the low in October that so many were expecting. I can promise you that cycle analysis is much more involved than simply counting from one point to the next. By nature, cycles contract and expand. But, this expansion and contraction does not invalidate the cycle, as it is the overall ebb and flow, or rhythm, that makes the cycle. However, it is because of the fact that market cycles are not precise mechanical events that we must also incorporate other tools such as statistical analysis and the use of technical indicators.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Report

2:00 PM Treasury Budget Feb
Briefing Forecast -$123.0B
Market Expects -$118.0B
Prior -$119.2B

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices fall below $60 a barrel

SINGAPORE - Oil prices fell below $60 a barrel in Asian trading Monday on forecasts of above-normal temperatures in the United States, a major consumer of heating oil and gasoline.

Light, sweet crude for April delivery dropped 44 cents to $59.61 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange mid-afternoon in Singapore. The contract fell by more than 2 percent on Friday to settle at $60.05 a barrel, thanks to weakness in heating oil.

-cut-

In Washington D.C., temperatures Saturday hit a peak of 67 degrees Fahrenheit (19 Celsius), much warmer than normal. Southwest winds have been forecast to warm the U.S. Plains and the East Coast, according to AccuWeather.com.

Also undermining prices were expectations that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will not change its output target when the cartel meets Thursday in Vienna, Austria, Shum said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. U.S. gas prices up 20 cents over 2 weeks

CAMARILLO, Calif. - Gasoline prices have gone up an average of 20 cents per gallon nationwide in the past two weeks.

The retail price of self-serve regular gas rose to $2.55 cents per gallon, according to the latest Lundberg Survey released Sunday.

As of Friday, a gallon of midgrade gasoline averaged about $2.66, and premium cost nearly $2.76, according to the survey of 7,000 gas stations across the country.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070311/ap_on_bi_ge/gas_prices

[Roland99]

7. It's been warmer for over a week now and prices are just now going down?

Just how many refineries were in "maintenance" mode anyway?


Congress needs to engage in broad and deep investigations into the oil/gas companies.

[salinen]

13. That's odd

The price should actually go up for energy when people shut off the heat and turn on the AC. AC takes 3 times the energy than does heating. I guess it's not that warm.

[UpInArms]

5. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 83.88 Change -0.37 (-0.44%)

US Dollar: Another Shakeup in Sub-Prime Sector Takes the Wind out of Payrolls

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/US_Dollar__Another_Shakeup_in_1173480570385.html

US Dollar – Thanks to a stronger than expected non-farm payrolls report, the US dollar staged an impressive end of week rebound. Even though job growth was the weakest in 2 years, the health of the labor market was better than what many traders were anticipating. Having sent the CME derivatives down to 75.5k this morning, the market was leaning more towards a weaker report. However revisions remained the name of the game as January payrolls were notched up by 37k while average hourly earnings increased by a more than expected 0.4 percent. Average weekly hours dropped slightly but that may be related to the near record low temperatures in the month of February. In addition to the sharp upward revision the prior month, 505k people were not included in the household survey because of the weather; this the largest exclusion in 10 years and indicates that we could either see a strong rebound in March or a sharp revision to the February number. Both the stronger revision and the higher wage pressures will prompt the Federal Reserve to think twice about cutting interest rates in August. Before getting too dollar bullish however, the problems in the sub-prime lending sector continues to grow. We already know that New Century, the country’s second largest sub-prime lender is already at the brink of bankruptcy. However today, WMC Mortgage, the 9th largest sub-prime lender also announced that they will be closing 4 out of their 9 branches as well as cutting 20 percent of their workforce. The Fed is watching the sub-prime lending sector very closely as more investors become affected by the shakeouts in the sector. They also realize that this has significant implications for the housing market as a whole. Tighter lending rules could shave 200k home buyers from the market. Next week, we have a busy US calendar that starts off with retail sales on Tuesday. Yesterday, Wal-Mart blamed their weaker sales on the wintry weather. This suggests that next week's retail sales numbers and the US dollar could also face downside risk. The trade deficit also narrowed in the month of January, which is sure to have contributed to the overall dollar strength.

...more...

Dollar Bounces - But Will it Last?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strategy_pieces/trade_or_fade/Dollar_Bounces___But_Will_1173678914981.html

As usual, the direction of the dollar was determined by Friday’s NFP figure which proved once again that in the FX market its is not the reality but the expectation that matters. As the week progressed, trader’s expectations towards the NFPs turned for the worse, fueled by the sub-prime market which continued to implode and Thursday’s ADP report that forecast a gain of only 57K versus initial estimate of 100K. With the bar now lowered significantly, the actual 97K print on Friday was seen as a relief buttressing the dollar’s bulls argument that despite the woes in housing the US economy continued to expand. The news caused bond yields to rise and gave lift to the dollar. But a look underneath February’s headline number suggests serious structural problems in the report. More than 350,000 workers have dropped out of the job force rendering the low unemployment rate almost meaningless as labor participation rates have declined. Nearly 40% of the jobs this month came from the government sector – hardly a sign of a booming economy. Finally, as many analysts have pointed out BLS birth/death model which arbitrarily adds or subtracts jobs from the final number may have skewed the results the upside in February.

Granted these are the standard gripes of the dollar bears, heard in the FX market nearly every NFP Friday. Nevertheless, the NFP results remain ambiguous. However, next week’s data may resolve some of the key points of the debate. In the US the consumer is king, responsible for more than 70% of all economic transactions. Thus the market’s focus will be centered squarely on Tuesday’s US Retail Sales report projected to rise by 0.3%. If the recent miss by Walmart is a foreshadow of the weakness in overall sales this number could surprise to the downside. If the report meets or beats the forecast, the dollar longs argument will be strengthened considerably as the notion of any Fed easing in the near future will disappear completely from the traders minds. To make matters even more complicated the rise in gasoline prices could actually push the headline number higher but mask the weakness of overall consumer demand. That’s why the market may key off the Retail Sales ex-gasoline as the real indicator of the health of the US economy. Lastly, Thursday will bring the TICS number which printed a woeful $15 Billion last month. If this month’s data rebounds, the market will shrug off December’s reading as an outlier, but if TICS misses badly once again, all bets are off as worries about the structural integrity of the US economy may sweep the market – BS



...more...

[UpInArms]

6. China Reports the Second Largest Trade Surplus Ever

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070312/bs_nm/china_economy_dc

BEIJING (Reuters) - China pledged on Monday that 2007 would be another year of extensive financial reform but said there was no quick way to bring down its record trade surplus.

<snip>

In a wide-ranging statement and accompanying news conference, Zhou set out the sort of market-orientated reform agenda that U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson urged on China during a keynote speech in Shanghai last Thursday.

But on the emotive issue of China's trade surplus, which is stirring protectionist sentiment in Washington, Zhou said the solution lay in deep-seated structural reforms that, by definition, would not have an impact overnight.

"The current trend of imbalanced trade will take some time to be adjusted and addressed," the central bank chief said.

As if to underline his point, China later reported a trade surplus for February of $23.76 billion, three times bigger than expected and the second-biggest monthly total on record.

That took the rolling 12-month surplus to a record $205.2 billion from $183.9 billion in January, providing fresh ammunition to U.S. critics who say China is deriving an unfair trade advantage by holding down the value of its currency.

...more...

[UpInArms]

8. End quarterly earnings guidance -US business group (Chamber of Commerce)

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=marketsNews&storyID=2007-03-12T053639Z_01_N12268623_RTRIDST_0_U-S-COMPETITIVENESS-REPORT-UPDATE-1.XML

WASHINGTON, March 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce on Monday called for an end to quarterly earnings guidance by companies, a shake-up at the Securities and Exchange Commission, optional federal charters for insurers, protections for auditors, and retirement savings initiatives.

In a laundry list of business community goals, some old and some new, a commission formed by the chamber -- the nation's largest lobbying group for business interests -- said the changes were needed because U.S. markets face new challenges.

"The competitive position of our capital markets is under strain from increasingly competitive international markets and from the need to modernize our legal and regulatory frameworks," the group said in a statement.

"We believe that these six recommendations by and large can, and should, be implemented in 2007 by Congress, the regulatory agencies, and market participants," it said.

The report said the SEC should reorganize by dismantling its front-line watchdog unit -- the Office of Compliance Inspections and Examinations (OCIE) -- and reassigning the unit's staff into the agency's four policy divisions.

...more...

[UpInArms]

9. Trying to Disguise Lord Black

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070312.wxeddie12/BNStory/ConradBlack/home

On the eve of perhaps the most important trial of his storied, 35-year career, defence counsel Edward Greenspan jolted forward in irritation upon hearing his client referred to as "Lord Black."

"He's not Lord Black," Mr. Greenspan asserted. "He's Conrad. This matters to me a lot. The prosecution want to call him Lord Black to create a total class distinction; to make him look like he's better than regular folk. The expression evokes envy, maybe even disdain for who he is; that they are bringing down a big guy. They want to create as much prejudice in the air as they can."

On the other hand, Mr. Greenspan acknowledged, there is no denying that his client is an internationally known, corporate magnate charged in a massive fraud. "That is reality," he said. "He is a lord. But they can call him Lord Black. We will call him Conrad Black."

With Lord Black's fraud trial scheduled to begin today, Mr. Greenspan's outburst provided clear evidence that Canada's best-known criminal lawyer has rounded into fighting form.

But blunting Lord Black's image as a haughty aristocrat is merely one of Mr. Greenspan's problems. He must also counteract what his former law partner, Marie Henein, called "a real public distrust of corporations and corporate management. . . an almost religious fervour."

...more...

[Roland99]

12. Well, the "Dark Lord" has managed to keep from being indicted in this scandal, so far.

Richard Perle, that is.

[Barrett808]

17. I believe Perle's moniker is "The Prince of Darkness"

But "Dark Lord" will do.

;)

[Roland99]

18. Ah, yes. I stand corrected.

But, yeah, close enough. :)

[Robbien]

10. SubPrime lender New Century says it is out of cash and cannot pay its lenders

March 12 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures dropped on concern rising loan delinquencies among the riskiest borrowers are foreshadowing lower profits in the financial industry.

New Century Financial Corp., the U.S. mortgage company whose stock has plunged more than 90 percent this year, tumbled after saying it lacks cash to repay its lenders.

. . .


New Century dropped $1.38, or 57 percent, to $1.38. The company's lenders claim it's in default and are demanding accelerated payments. New Century said it lacks cash to meet those demands. The stock finished last year at $31.59.

New Century, the second-biggest U.S. home lender to people with blemished credit histories, has used up cash as rising default rates forced it to buy back loans it sold to investors. Loans to subprime borrowers are going sour at the highest level in at least seven years.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aKzBWyz_O0i8&refer=us

[Roland99]

11. 9:52am - Sub-prime fears sending mexed missages

DJIA 12,264.55 -11.77 -0.10%
Nasdaq 2,390.02 +2.47 +0.10%
S&P 500 1,400.26 -2.59 -0.18%
Dow Util 474.98 -1.25 -0.26%
NYSE 9,077.98 -17.01 -0.19%
AMEX 2,097.17 +2.71 +0.13%
Russell 2000 784.94 -0.18 -0.02%
Semcond 475.53 +0.48 +0.10%
Gold future 650.40 -1.60 -0.25%
30-Year Bond 4.69% -0.03 -0.64%
10-Year Bond 4.56% -0.03 -0.70%

[Roland99]

14. Subprime mortgage woes may be spreading (creeping up on so-called Alt-A home loans)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/subprime-mortgage-problems-may-spread/story.aspx?guid=%7B664D15E5%2D33EA%2D41AB%2DBAF7%2D116BBF929245%7D

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Problems in the subprime mortgage business may be spreading to other parts of the home loan market.

Losses are creeping up on so-called Alt-A loans, which are considered less risky than subprime mortgages, but may have lower credit quality than "prime" loans.

...

Alt-A loans were originally designed for borrowers with clean credit records, but with other issues that often meant they provided fewer documents or even no documents showing what they earned. These loans were attractive to mortgage investors because they offered higher yields than traditional "prime" home loans, but were underpinned by the cleaner credit records of the borrowers.

...

"The Alt-A market has absorbed and disguised a portion of the subprime space," he said. "You can debate how to define these loans, but many have ended up being an Alt-A product with subprime deficiencies."

[Roland99]

15. 1:39pm - Gains barely registering

DJIA 12,290.26 +13.94 +0.11%
Nasdaq 2,393.05 +5.50 +0.23%
S&P 500 1,403.00 +0.15 +0.01%
Dow Util 477.91 +1.68 +0.35%
NYSE 9,098.46 +3.47 +0.04%
AMEX 2,095.18 +0.72 +0.03%
Russell 2000 785.84 +0.72 +0.09%
Semcond 478.85 +3.80 +0.80%
Gold future 653.40 +1.40 +0.21%
30-Year Bond 4.69% -0.04 -0.74%
10-Year Bond 4.55% -0.04 -0.87%

[ozymandius]

16. small gains on weak volume

1:55
Dow 12,298.59 Up 22.27 (0.18%)
Nasdaq 2,393.71 Up 6.16 (0.26%)
S&P 500 1,403.62 Up 0.77 (0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.549% Down 0.04
NYSE Volume 1,651,273,000
Nasdaq Volume 961,592,000

1:30 pm : It's more of the same for Wall Street, which is to say the indices are little changed since the update at the top of the hour.

The technology sector (+0.61%) has been an influential source of support that has helped mitigate the negative effects of the weakness in the financial sector (-0.52%).

Semiconductor stocks are attracting some buying interest ahead of the Texas Instruments (TXN 32.79, +0.33) mid-quarter update tonight, as are some big-cap technology issues such as Apple (AAPL 89.65, +1.68), Oracle (ORCL 17.00, +0.37), Intel (INTC 19.39, +0.29), Yahoo! (YHOO 30.03, +0.91) and Microsoft (MSFT 27.40, +0.12)DJ30 +15.95 NASDAQ +5.69 NQ100 +0.3% SP500 +0.37 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1458/1482/864 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1424/1742/746 mln

1:00 pm : For followers of the market, today's session has been played out in a painfully tight trading range. Five points is all that separates the S&P 500 from the low end of today's range to the top end.

The lack of volatility reflects a return to normalcy of sorts that Briefing.com laid out in this week's Big Picture column.

Separately, some headlines have hit the wires from Fed Governor Kroszner's speech on inflation dynamics. In typical fashion, he noted the Fed would need to respond if inflation expectations "drift." His remarks haven't had any discernible trading impact on either the stock or bond market.DJ30 +11.86 NASDAQ +6.23 SP500 -0.21 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1429/1485/777 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1424/1723/670 mln

[Roland99]

19. Closing numbers: Modest gains sustained.

DJIA 12,318.62 +42.30 +0.34%
Nasdaq 2,402.29 +14.74 +0.62%
S&P 500 1,406.60 +3.75 +0.27%
Dow Util 481.02 +4.79 +1.01%
NYSE 9,120.93 +25.94 +0.29%
AMEX 2,108.03 +13.57 +0.65%
Russell 2000 789.00 +3.88 +0.49%
Semcond 479.30 +4.25 +0.89%
Gold future 650.30 -1.70 -0.26%
30-Year Bond 4.69% -0.03 -0.66%
10-Year Bond 4.55% -0.04 -0.78%

[UpInArms]

20. sloppy blather

4:10 pm : The market had its share of trading catalysts today and it chose to ignore them for most of the session.

On the plus side, oil prices dropped below $60 per barrel and there was another round of M&A activity that was highlighted by Schering-Plough's (SGP 23.95, +0.10) $14.4 billion cash offer for Akzo Nobel's drug unit Organon. On the negative side, Countrywide Financial (CFC 35.14, -0.96) said it expects to experience short-term earnings volatility due to the tightening of its underwriting guidelines in response to the troubles in the subprime mortgage market.

The latter declaration seemed to keep the market in handcuffs in the early-going as it fueled concerns about potential spillover effects of the subprime issue into the broader economy and weighed noticeably on the financial stocks.

The broader market, however, didn't buckle in the face of initial selling efforts as relative strength in the technology sector (+0.83%) helped neutralize the weak showing in the financial sector (-0.03%).

That measure of resilience held buyers' attention, as it was viewed as a potential signal that the concerns about the subprime mortgage issue have already been discounted in the market.

That point remains debatable, but recognizing the subprime factor didn't rattle the market in appreciable fashion, buyers emerged in the afternoon session and helped push the S&P 500 to the brink of the high point it saw on Friday following the February jobs report. It was there that the afternoon rally try ran out of gas as technical resistance pushed the market back in the late stages of trading.

The major indices, however, still closed the session with modest gains. Eight out of ten economic sectors ended the day higher, but the lack of participation from the financial sector was the key, limiting factor that kept overall gains in check.

Looking ahead, Tuesday will have its share of trading catalysts. Tonight's mid-quarter update from Texas Instruments (TXN 32.59, +0.13), the earnings report from Goldman Sachs (GS 202.60, +0.90) before the open, and the February Retail Sales report will be the focal points.DJ30 +42.30 NASDAQ +14.74 SP500 +3.75 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1299/1724/1.50 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1244/2055/1.30 bln

3:30 pm : The afternoon charge has hit a speed bump which, according to technical analysts, came into play at last Friday's peak level of 1409.98 for the S&P 500.

The indices, however, have maintained a posture in positive territory as the recovery of the financial sector (unch) from larger losses is feeding into bottom-fishing interest. The brokers, which will be in the spotlight tomorrow following the earnings report from Goldman Sachs (GS 202.27, +0.57), have been among the beneficiaries of the afternoon buying activity.

The Treasury market has moved off its best levels of the day in conjunction with the stock market's uptick, yet it continues to hold the bulk of earlier gains. The 10-year note is up 9 ticks with its yield at 4.55%.DJ30 +50.95 NASDAQ +14.48 SP500 +4.59 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1248/1764/1.28 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1110/2134/1.11 bln

3:00 pm : A market that had its guard up for most of the day has let it down somewhat so to speak, as the indices have pushed to new intraday highs in the afternoon session. The move has been fairly broad-based which explains why we have seen a simultaneous updraft in all three indices.

Still, it is the tech sector (+0.9%) that is carrying the load from a leadership standpoint, and consequently, the Nasdaq is outlegging its major counterparts on a percentage basis.

On a related note, there is a lot more green on stock monitors than before as 8 out of 10 economic sectors are sporting a gain. The two holdouts - financial (-0.03%) and energy (-0.05%) - are showing only negligible losses now.

DJ30 +62.97 NASDAQ +15.30 SP500 +6.04 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1231/1761/1.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1209/2021/1.01 bln

2:30 pm : The indices have broken out to new session highs in the past half hour without any real fundamental catalyst.

Buying interest picked up when the indices pushed above prior highs for the day, so the move is likely to be attributed to technical activity. In any event, the major indices are all on positive ground now, led by the technology (+0.8%) and telecom services (+0.9%) sectors.

The financial sector (-0.2%), meanwhile, is well off its worst levels of the day - a move that has helped drive the recent uptick in the broader market.DJ30 +45.99 NASDAQ +12.23 SP500 +3.67 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1465/1529/1.02 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1433/1792/892 mln

1:55 pm : There just hasn't been much conviction behind today's action as evidenced by the flat standing of the S&P 500.

The market has not been without catalysts, but with a slate of important items due out later this week, investors have taken a guarded approach thus far as they wait to see if a bottom has in fact been put in place following the jarring sell-off on February 27 or whether further downside is in the offing.

One of the supportive factors today that has been marginalized for the most part has been the drop in oil prices. Crude futures for April delivery are down $0.85 at $59.20 per barrel as traders are pricing in (or out depending on your vantage point) the arrival of warmer weather and the likelihood OPEC leaves its production output quotas unchanged at Thursday's meeting.DJ30 +22.43 NASDAQ +6.16 SP500 +0.77 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1489/1471/938 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1477/1719/817 mln

[Roland99]

21. Gee, did someone learn a new vocabulary word?

How many times was "catalyst" used?

sheesh.