Troubleshooting Starts As Energy Loses Steam(Oil Price)

[CHIMO]

Oil and gas exports, the bread and butter of the national economy, look to have gone a bit stale.

The reasons are threefold: a strong ruble, a suffocating tax regime, and an oil price driven down by plenty of global supplies, analysts said.

As this sector represents some 65 percent of both exports and the total value of Russian companies, there is little room to doubt that the markets are going to suffer.

But many have been wondering whether the greater economy can take it and, if the slump continues, whether it can adapt.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2007/03/19/048.html

OK. So why is my price at the pump so high? Shit! We must all be stupid or something!

[Kagemusha]

1. You must think talk of refinery problems and such are just lies told for convenience

Well fine if that's what everyone wants to think...

In theory refinery problems would drive prices up no matter if the oil price is driven down by plenty off global supplies...

[w4rma]

2. Big oil takes their income and turns it into profits rather than investing into their infrastructue

of refineries and pipe lines here in the U.S.

Then when one blows up or a pipeline leaks all over Alaska, they whine and cry that they'll have to "reluctantly" raise prices and need a 'bailout' from Congress to pay for the infrastructure they have been neglecting because they use the income for profits rather than maintenance.

[papau]

4. True refinery problems indeed will drive prices higher if we are forced to import finished products

that is why many folks, that have looked at how convenient those maintenance shutdowns and small fires needing repairs are to keeping prices high, have wondered how real the situation is re "tight supplies".

[Kagemusha]

5. I think reply #2 above is more to the point.

It's not that they cause refinery problems through self-sabotage. It's that they keep investment in infrastructure low so that there's no slack in the system so that when inevitable problems inevitably arise, they inevitably raise prices.

But I don't see evidence supporting their blowing up their own facilities or stuff. I don't see why they have to.

[Thor_MN]

6. When the oil runs out, refineries have no value.

Who is going to build the last refinery? Who going to refurbish something that has no value? If there were plenty of product to refine, it would make economic sense to refine more oil. I see the lack of interest in new refineries and maintenance as a sign that they know that oil is going to run out sooner rather than later...

[papau]

8. They voluntarily take down infrastructure for "maintenance" at just the right times - I'll give them

that the fires are likely real because they can get out of control too easily.

But the maintenance timing that has caused spikes in gas prices seems interesting. Some seem to think that it is possible that oil folks could try to manipulate their future profits by say - control of oil in Iraq - which has been off the market, causing price increases. I am one of them. So the maintenance timing perks up my ears.

As to infrastructure there actually has been investment - at least in refinery upgrades so that closing refineries - which has been happening for a long time now - is offset by improved output from the ones still working. It's a fact that screws up - a little bit - my tighten market to spike price theory - but I am still finding the maintenance schedule interesting.

[Kagemusha]

9. Yeah, interesting is a good word.

It's quite possible that maintenance schedules are done in that manner... but they have to at least be careful not to make it look too suspicious, lest some hostile Congress find evidence to that effect. It's all in being subtle.

[papau]

11. :-)

:-)

[robinlynne]

7. oh I think they are worse than lies. I think this entire war was waged to keep

oil prices high. What's a little refinery shutdown? Actually we know for a fact that they were false shutdowns done to keep prices up in california. And it worked.

[papau]

10. false shutdowns done to keep prices up in california is an "inconvenient fact" from recent history n

n/t

[papau]

3. lower prices to snuff out the change over being researched below is a likely reason IMO

http://www.cnn.com/2007/TECH/03/09/cars.100mpg.popsci/index.html

A carbon composite frame should cut steel demand and steel plant need - and with our Steel industry now overseas more or less (compared to the 50's) this has a lot of good and little bad. I vote for inexpensive molds, automated fabrication processes and composite materials NOW!

The hybrid engine that burns diesel seems a no brainer, and if braking energy recover as in the Prius via batteries can be doubled by replacing batteries with a hydraulic system using pumps that compresses nitrogen gas, the combination should be awesome. Throw in the thermodynamic process based on jet engines that uses some of the heat normally lost to exhaust to warm the air before fuel enters the engines piston area, and we have a car that I'd buy tomorrow!

The neat thing is that CNN story about 3 different approaches to increasing mileage is actually describing 3 ideas that fit together very nicely (although I still want my battery and plug in ability for at least a 30 mile daily ride).


Throw in a 25 million dollar price to the first production car to reach 100 mph from todays fleet average of 21, and at least my expectation that we will approach 300 mpg if the current pace and venture financing continues, and I can see trying to kill the need for such research via cheap oil prices this year.