Clinton, McCain, Giuliani lead (Michigan) polls

[Freddie Stubbs]

Source: Associated Press

Michigan voters also like Obama, Edwards, Romney.


KATHY BARKS HOFFMAN
Associated Press Writer

LANSING -- New York Sen. Hillary Clinton is the Democratic favorite while Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani are tops among Republicans, according to a new poll of likely Michigan voters.

When 454 Democrats were asked who they would vote for if the presidential primary or caucus were held today, 45 percent said Clinton while 29 percent said Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards came in third at 16 percent, while New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and Delaware Sen. Joe Biden each got 4 percent.

Two percent said they were undecided.

Among 392 Republicans polled, 30 percent said they'd vote for McCain, while 26 percent chose Giuliani. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was picked by 21 percent, while 16 percent chose former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and 1 percent chose Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback. Four percent were undecided.

Read more: http://www.southbendtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070323/News01/703230415/-1/NEWS01

[noonwitch]

1. John McCain won the Michigan Primary in 2000

Pat Robertson won in 1988. Michigan republicans seem to be fairly independent, although I could explain both results easily.

In 2000, the UAW encouraged dem voters to vote in the GOP primary, because Gore had pretty much wrapped up the nomination at that point. Gov. Engler was in charge of Bush's Michigan campaign, and had promised to deliver the state to Bush in both the primary and the general election (a good number of state employees are represented by the UAW). The union vote gave McCain the victory, although Gore carried Michigan in November.

In 1988, West Michigan voted for Robertson. There are a lot of religious conservatives in W. Michigan and in some of the communities around Detroit and other Michigan cities.

[davsand]

2. I think a lot of this is name recognition at this early stage.

Not to minimize anyone at all--but there is not a lot of name recognition yet for all the candidates. We DUers may find it hard to believe, but not everyone reads the newspapers or watches TV news with much regularity. It pretty much goes this way in EVERY election, I think. The early front runners are often the ones that people have a familiarity with.

I tend to take polling info a lot more seriously when it is closer to the election.


Regards!


Laura