TPM & blogger Ralph Brandi: "Kurds capture Saddam" story probably bogus

[Bucky]

Josh Marshall on the pro-Democratic blog Talking Points Memo points out some problems with the story of the Kurdish militia claiming they captured Saddam and passed him over to the US troops. He then links to a blogger named Ralph Brandi, whose site, There is No Cat has reports that the woman who reported the story is, to put it nicely, an easily duped flake.

The story on Yvonne Ridley is that she was captured by al Qaeda in 2001, converted to Islam, then went to work for al-Jazeera. She seems a little troubled, but her real crime is that she got all sorts of background facts wrong in how she reported the story, giving the impression that maybe she doesn't do her homework so good while reporting.

But follow the links and judge for yourself.

[otohara]

1. Opps, I Passed That Story

to many a people - my husband was saying tonight that he has yet to see a story on CNN and others, and he didn't believe it was true. I'm arguing with him, saying - it's true...blah, blah, blah.

[Must_B_Free]

2. i read it was mentioned on cnn

.

you never can tell though

[Bucky]

4. It made the Countdown show on MSNBC

I only saw the teaser for this story, however. I had to switch back over to see the Packers freakin' clobber Oakland. Quite a sight. Brett Favre is quite a guy, I'm sure his dad is smiling right now.

[nadinbrzezinski]

3. The way I passed it to many is

if this is the case

But we were also told about Lynch fighting to the death

Now there is another one claiming Mossad is involved

Why is this one more serious? Whether Mossad was involved or not,
it besides the point... it will be believed by the Arab press and
used

Both stories, kurds got him with Mossad combo is quite explosive

Now the PKU is actually a real group, and they are our allies

[aquart]

10. They've already altered the original story.

First Saddam was dazed and didn't put up any fight.

Now he spit on a soldier and got slapped around by one of our men.

Our reasons for suspecting the story is that BushCo routinely lies. We have absolutely NO expectations of hearing the truth from them.

[nadinbrzezinski]

11. True

that is why I cannot wait for the BBC and the Toronto star
to find the TRUTH again.

[Snazzy]

5. I think you could characterize TPM as saying...

the jury is out. Maybe way-out. His sum-up:

"Let me be clear: I'm not saying there's nothing to this. I haven't had time to make any calls. Anything could be true. And it's entirely possible that there are dimensions to the intel leading to Saddam's capture, which haven't yet been revealed. But none of the publish accounts I've seen strike me as credible or even close to substantiated. So until I see more I assume there's nothing to it."
------

And that's a pretty reasonable stance. He doesn't say it is bogus.

Indeed, some of his key points are a bit less than damning. (1) Ridley had the name of PKU wrong--seems to happen often in most translated foreign press. If I spoke Arabic, I'd explore the possibility the translator and not the reporter made PKU into KPF. (2) Talabani says differently, and notably that Saddam wasn't drugged because four members of the IGC met with him and traded insults. Why are we trusting the made in USA IGC all of a sudden? And (3) Circular reporting and Debka had it. OK, so Debka is fringe, and only the Sunday Herald has this story. Let's gets some follow up.

Not dead, though I agree that this is far from solid. Let it drip.

I'll add my own little bit to this too as a pshop, photo and graphics guy (um, maybe an expert with bad attempt at modesty). You can download a hirez "Saddam just captured" shot curtsey of the Defense dept. 120K anyway. Zooming in on his right eyeball, and generally looking at the man in better detail, sure looks kinda stoned to me. Dilated for sure. A dark room, maybe; but with all that photography going on and white walls for the whatever photo lights to fall on, and somehow he has an pupil nearly the size of his iris.

TPM rocks in any case!

[Snazzy]

6. Link for hirez photo

http://www.defenselink.mil/multimedia/

Click bearded Saddam, then hi-rez in lower right of the window that pops up. Don't think a direct link is a good plan.

[ze_dscherman]

13. Nothing wrong with the size of the pupils in the picture

They have an average size, nothing hinting to any drugs involved.

Pupil size changes under the influence of drugs

Pupils wide: hallucinogens, like LSD (not likely), muscle relaxants, disorientating drugs like atropine

Pupils very small: opiates and similar analgesics

[Snazzy]

34. Looks wide to me

Half the size of the iris, at least. And I think it is a safe assumption the highlights are caused by a bright strobe. Unless the first picture in a series, that should have them contracting.

[ze_dscherman]

36. Not wide enough

Hallucinogens like LSD would probably widen the pupils more, but they would make little sense under these circumstances.

Stimulants like methamphetamine or cocaine also considerably enlarge the pupil. Not to be recommended to drug a prisoner, though. But Saddam Hussein could have used amphetamines to stay awake/alert. You may find a picture of the effects of a stimulant on the pupil here: http://www.iir.com/centf/guide.htm


Scopolamine, related to atropine, could be used to sedate someone. As well, it has been used as "truth serum", but this is considered a very crude and unreliable method. Scopolamine would cause extremely dilated pupils - much bigger than just half the iris. An eye dilated by a atropine like drug (applied locally, but people drugged on this stuff look the same) can be seen here: http://www.med.harvard.edu/publications/On_The_Brain/Volume4/Number1/W95Alz.html

or here (drawing): http://www.eyehealthillinois.org/dilated.html


I consider the pupil size in these pictures as pretty normal. Keep in mind that the pupil needs some time to contract.

[Snazzy]

38. Interesting links--thanks

I agree that the eye is not totally dialated like in the drawing or photos cited. It looks like a step or maybe two under that. It's also hard to tell, even after I adjust the white point in the image, where the pupil ends for sure. Would help if we were dead on.

This turned up in a quick google:

http://www.nasarecovery.com/signsandsymptomsofdrugandalcoholuse.html



Can't tell anything from the after beard shots. Appears to be a different camera. Blurry.

I'll dig around for some more DoD photos later.

[haele]

7. The key to this

Is that, true or false, there is, once again, a swirling mist of confusion and doubt about something the administration has done.

That's what people remember. We have to keep hammering it home. They simply can't be trusted. Nobody trusts them.

[0rganism]

8. What are Ralph Brandi's credentials?

Since we are questioning sources, maybe we should question ALL of them. Mr. Marshall is skeptical of the Kurdish Patriotic Front, when in fact it is an alternate translation of Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. Yvonne Ridley is held to be a suspect source because she took on her al-Jazeera bosses for better working conditions, according to one of the other British articles linked by Mr. Brandi.

Is skepticism justified? Certainly. However, the sources for the alternate version hardly seem any less credible than the known liars who put forth the original scenario.

Why on earth should I trust shills for the kleptocracy any more than shills for Islamic jihad?

Source relativism has come home to roost.

[nadinbrzezinski]

12. I do not speak kurdish

email Josh, he may apreciate it

[stickdog]

9. Who is basing belief in this story on a single reporter's reputation?

???

[GRClarkesq]

14. From the TPM blog

he notes that Jalal Talabani (nice name), leader of the PUK went on Al Jazeera and stated the PUK had no part in the capture.

Claims PUK had unit in area when Saddam was arrested, learned of the arrest, called PUK HQ, which broke the story early before the CPA.

Ms. Ridley may have a touch of the Stockholm Syndrome.

As I thought when this story first broke, someone needs to find and interview the lower level PUK types who took part in the capture. Capturing Saddam is such a big deal for them I cannot imagine someone would not talk if they did capture Saddam.

Of course, as part of a deal with the US the PUK may have instructed its people to disclaim participation in the capture.

In any event, this story will have to stay in "rumor" status until some more credible reporting is done.

[fob]

33. This is the part that made me think Josh is a bit off here

JMM has parsed many other stories by rumsfeld, perle and the like by reviewing not what they said, but what they didn't say. In his entry JMM has a passage by Talabani;

Jalal Talabani, member of the Iraqi Governing Council and leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), has denied that the Peshmerga forces were responsible for arresting the former Iraqi president, Saddam Husayn, as reported by a British newspaper (Sunday Express) on Sunday (21 December). In an interview with Al-Jazeera in Moscow, Talabani said that the arrest of Saddam had been carried out by the Americans alone. Talabani arrived in Moscow prior to the start of an official visit by an Iraqi Governing Council delegation to Russia. (Talabani - recording) We contributed to trailing and pursuing Saddam Husayn when he used to go from one place to another. We provided the coalition with important information about these places. However, the arrest was carried out by American hands. The American forces carried out the arrest and none of the Peshmerga members took part in the arrest. Therefore, this report is regrettably false. It could be meant to justify the low spirits of the former president and the shock on his face following the arrest so as to say that he was drugged. He was not drugged because four members of the Iraqi Governing Council met him and he was fully conscious and traded insults with them.

Now THAT'S a non-denial denial if I've ever heard one. At no point does he refute the claim that the PUK captured SH and set him up for the US photo-op ARREST. So do you get it, wink wink, the PUK had nothing to do with the arrest, nudge nudge. We trailed him and pursued him from place to place and that's all, wink wink.

This will be confirmed when the PUK emerges with some kind of guarantee or extra power in the kurdistan region, just like the bribe charge against bush* and Turkey played itself out with an actual $8 billion "loan" or "grant" or "aid" or whatever they called it happened less than a week later. Bookmark this one folks and wait for the sliver of info that will leak out regarding the payoff, the over/under is 12 days, I'll take under with 12/25, 12/31 and 1/1/04 being 3/5 favorites.

fob

[Nlighten1]

15. I don't buy it...because Mossad was monitoring the "caputure"

Having read the Debka File rendition of the fable I tend to agree with them...Saddam was being held prisoner...now wether it was the Kurds or someone else who knows...

http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=743


Who were those two men armed with AK47s?

[BiggJawn]

18. Saddam would not be alive if the Mossad ws involved.

Mossad involved and he still lives? What happened? did the Kurds/US get there before they started their "fun"?

[Nlighten1]

21. Not involved...monitoring...

Have you read the Debka File link?

[DoYouEverWonder]

16. the woman who reported the story is an easily duped flake?

The woman who reported the story is Yvonne Ridley. Anyone around here remember her? This is the woman who was captured by Taliban last year.

"A spokesperson for the Daily Express said the 43-year-old was the paper's chief reporter and a highly experienced journalist who had covered several conflicts in many countries around the world."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/1570394.stm



Here's a link to her original report in the Sunday Express on Saturday. Under the circumstances, I think I would believe a report from Ms. Ridley before some internet blogger who thinks this couragous woman is some flake.


http://mlcastle.net/piracy/express.txt

[SpiralHawk]

26. "a little bit nutty, and..."

Why is it that they always go right after a woman's reputation?

That is evil.

Either her facts are right, or they are wrong. There is no need to smear her on someone's opinion. "They" always do this when women come forward with a strong accusation -- "they" attack her, not the message.

[DoYouEverWonder]

27. She converted to Islam and is anti-Iraq war

Plus she committed the sin of going to work for al Jazeerah. However, she was fired a couple of months ago. It is speculated that the WH was behind her being fired.

[lostnfound]

39. Judge for yourself -- She was interviewed on Democracy Now yesterday

http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=03/12/23/1559234

[KoKo]

17. The whole capture thing smells. It was too obviously a stunt that Bush

would love. The "humiliated victime" hiding in a hol...come on..remember how he loves to talk about death, killing and the smirk that he always says it with. What about the Texas execution of the female that he made fun of?

I don't think we have the credible evidence about this becaue it's being propagandized on so many sides, but it was all "too convenient." And, where were Saddam's cigars? I keep mentioning that he wasn't found with any and that's the most suspicious aspect of the whole story.

He was capture before and drugged. (I do believe that) but who captured him and when, is the question.

[starroute]

28. *Bush does have an obsession with dark corners

"This is a different kind of war, see, that's what's unique. In the old days, we would fight armies that had tanks and airplanes and ships. These people are the kind of people that hide in caves and send people to their suicidal deaths. And so it requires a different kind of effort. It requires sharing of intelligence, cutting off money, having specially trained troops to go into dark caves or the dark corners of the world and bring these people to justice."

http://usinfo.state.gov/topical/pol/terror/02112104.htm


"For us too, in the year 2001, an enemy has emerged that rejects every limit of law, morality, and religion. The terrorists have no true home in any country, or culture, or faith. They dwell in dark corners of earth. And there, we will find them."

http://usinfo.state.gov/topical/pol/terror/01101104.htm

[Media_Lies_Daily]

19. The so-called "capture" was a public relations stunt from the beginning...

...I found myself questioning how quickly certain "news" outlets and magazines were able to publish detailed stories within hours of Saddam's capture. I also question how quickly the U. S. military/intell was able to "debrief" Saddam and obtain the alleged information on cells operating within Iraq.

One word: bogus.

P. S.: I also don't know what to think of the "Kurdish capture" story. I'll say one thing...with our military and intell track record to date, they had to have had a lot of help.

[spinbaby]

20. What makes me think something might be behind it...

Yes, this story could easily be some Arab fantasy. But I'm noticing that all the major TV news outlets have gone from a Saddam frenzy to not mentioning him at all. This change happened pretty much overnight and at the same time as this story was starting to break overseas. Coincidence? Hmmm...

Geez, when did I get to be so cynical?

[THX1138]

22. Democracy Now

Had an interview with this reporter this morning. The issues raised by TPM were addressed, although not fully explained, at least imho. The show should be archived later today:

on edit: fixed link

http://www.democracynow.org

[Devils Advocate NZ]

23. Marshall is full of shite on this one, and here is the proof.

At first he says:

So, I've had a slew of readers write in to ask, Is there something to this story?

In a word? No.

Then he says:

Let me be clear: I'm not saying there's nothing to this.

Pardon? Asked is there something to this he says NO, then says I am not saying there is nothing to this? Hmmm, that is a good start!

So let's look at what we have in the rest of the article.

He points out that a name is wrong, saying that the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan is being called the Kurdish Patriotic Front.

So, on a hunch, and to verify whether a person who thinks NO doesn't mean NO is actually checking his facts, I went to google. Guess what I found:

"The world is watching. Those that do not attend will lose out," Qubad Talabani, the Washington representative of the Patriotic Front of Kurdistan, one of two Kurdish parties from northern Iraq, said in an e-mail.
http://home.cogeco.ca/~konews/10-11-02-us-add-more-oppo-groups.html

This is from a web page that calls itself "Kurdistan Observer"!

Marshall would probably say, howver, that this page is not an "official source", and that the name is not quite the same. Well how about this:

The third round of the northern Iraqi peace talks ended Wednesday
in Ankara, but the major issues under discussion remained
unresolved. The two opposing parties, the Kurdish Democratic
Party (KDP) and the Kurdish Patriotic Front (KPF) made no
progress with respect to the distribution of Habur border gate
revenues, the rates of representation in local administrations,
election dates and the disarmament of Erbil.
http://www.byegm.gov.tr/YAYINLARIMIZ/CHR/ING97/01/97X01X16.TXT

Notice the source for that document. Who should we trust as to whether there is any such organisation as the Kurdish Patriotic Front? A blogger with an over inflated ego, or the Turkish government?

So what did Marshall have to say?

What's this group, the Kurdish Patriotic Front? Good question. As far as I know, there is no such group.

Well, Mr Marshall, if you had taken two minutes to type "Kurdish Patriotic Front" into Google you would have seen that there are four hits for that name, including the above linked Turkish Government site.

Thank you Mr Marshall for proving that self-important bloggers shouldn't be trusted any more than any other source!

Now, the final "proof" Marshall presents is the PUK denial that they were actually responsible for the capture.

Now lets consider the context of this for a moment. What we have is an accusation that the Kurds captured Hussein, held him in secret, and then negotiated a secret deal with the US to hand him over.

Now tell me, just how stupid does Marshall think we are? Does he really expect us to believe that within DAYS of this secret deal having been made, and before much of any of the supposed "payment" for Hussein's hand over could have been received (although three Kurds WERE promoted to the IGC), that the leader of the PUK would expose the deal and thereby embarass Bush? You know the man who wants to punish the French and Germans for not agreeing with him?

Does Marshall SERIOUSLY expect us to believe the Kurds would THROW AWAY the deal, losing anything they may have gained in the process, not to mention no longer having Hussein, JUST BECAUSE A REPORTER ASKED THEM?

Marshall should rethink his position, and stop acting like a fool.

Editted for typos etc.

[J B]

25. That looks like a simple translation error.

I mean, grammar's different for different languages; a careless translator will put things in the wrong order.

[Gman]

24. I really don't care if its true or not

I'm telling everyone I can find that might vote against Bush.

[Gin]

29. I believe the story that the Kurds had him and used it as a bargaining

chip...its all too convenient..(US story)nothing they have done so far has proven to be honest.

I am passing the Kurd story on to all who are interested...time will tell....watch what the Kurds get.

[DoYouEverWonder]

30. This was one of the first reports from last Sunday

It is well documented that the news of Saddam's capture came through Iran, which at the time I thought was really odd. I think the Kurds did a really good job of double crossing Saddam and the US and at the same time assured their credibility by using the foreign press to document the events has they actually took place. It's a little difficult for the Pentagon to cover this up because the Kurds made sure everyone heard their version of the news from them first.


http://www.ananova.com/news/story/sm_846934.html

Reports Saddam captured

Reports are coming in that Saddam Hussein has been captured in Iraq.

The reports, from the Iran News Agency and an Iraqi Kurdish leader, claim he's been arrested in Tikrit.

There has been no confirmation from the US Defence Department or the Ministry of Defence.

<snip>

"We are celebrating like it's a wedding," said Mustapha Sheriff, a resident of Kirkuk. "We are finally rid of that criminal." This is the joy of a lifetime," said Ali Al-Bashiri, another Kirkuk resident. "I am speaking on behalf of all the people that suffered under his rule."

<snip>

In Baghdad, a US spokeswoman told reporters that a "very important" announcement would be made at a news conference scheduled for 3pm local time (1200 GMT) but did not say who would be the speaker.

Story filed: 10:15 Sunday 14th December 2003


So that were celebrating in Kirkuk hours before the US even acknowledged that we might have Saddam? Funny how word got to the Kurds in Kirkuk and their friends in Iran way before FAUX had any clue that US forces had Saddam in their custody?

[Sterling]

32. You should care

Yes I have seen your snow jobs on Dean. You need to work on your credibility. At least be sure to let people know not all Dems are liars plz.

The truth is a powerful weapon, use it.

[otohara]

37. How Did This Turn Into A Dean Thing?

Please, can't we discuss anything without attacking Howard Dean and the people who support him? This getting ridiculous -

[0007]

40. I'm with you Sterling -

You got it right!

[glitch]

31. smearing the messenger doesn't make the message less credible

it just provides defensive ammo to the people who want to believe.

I read somewhere that a good percentage of propaganda isn't to make disbelievers believe, but to provide a justification for the people who want to believe anyway.

[otohara]

35. After Watching Democracy Now

Iraqi Council Member who represents the PUK sounded like he was reading directly from a Pentagon prepared statement.

While all of Yvonne Ridley's story may not be 100% true, we know that what ever comes from White House is almost never true.

Also on today's DN:
Retired Air Force Col. Reveals How The U.S. Orchestrated A Media and PSYOPS Campaign Following Saddam's Capture

Worth listening to http://democracynow.org/