STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday May 8

[ozymandius]

Source: DU

Tuesday May 8, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 622 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2319 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2029 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1989
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 9
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON May 7, 2007

Dow... 13,312.97 +48.35 (+0.36%)
Nasdaq... 2,570.95 -1.20 (-0.05%)
S&P 500... 1,509.48 +3.86 (+0.26%)
Gold future... 690.30 +0.60 (+0.09%)
30-Year Bond 4.79% -0.01 (-0.21%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.64% -0.00 (-0.09%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: DU

[ozymandius]

Today's Market WrapUp

Derivatives: Glowing Revelations
BY ROB KIRBY

In case you haven’t noticed the headlines about the Bank of Montreal (BMO) taking a “charge” against earnings relating to its (DERIVATIVES) trading – particularly in that of Nat Gas futures:

TORONTO, April 27 /CNW/ - BMO Financial Group (NYSE: BMO, TSX: BMO) said
today that mark-to-market commodity trading losses estimated at between
CDN$350 million and CDN$450 million, pre-tax, will be recorded in the second
quarter of its 2007 fiscal year. The impact of this to BMO Financial Group's
second quarter earnings, which will be announced on May 23, 2007, is estimated
in the range of 45 cents to 55 cents per share.

I’m guessing there’s a much bigger story here than the headline suggests. Bank of Montreal has taken a loss on DERIVATIVES TRADING of some 450 MILLION – and remember – total trading revenue for the whole of last year for BMO was reportedly in the neighborhood of 650 million.

-cut-

Once again, let’s consider the words of Mr. Jim Willie,

“The US Federal Reserve is JPMorgan. The Dept of Treasury is Goldman Sachs. The Iron Triangle supports the US Military. These entities do the government’s bidding and execution of programs. Not one single Wall Street firm or bank has been marred by the rash of scandals since 2000. Only outsiders were damaged or ruined.”

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[orpupilofnature57]

1. Hire an oilman's Dumb kid and see what happens , Prescott smiling

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_Plot

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Report

10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Mar
Briefing Forecast 0.4%
Market Expects 0.4%
Prior 0.5%

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices rise to $61.82 a barrel

SINGAPORE - Oil prices rose Tuesday on fears of supply disruptions following the bombing of three major oil pipelines by the main militant group in southern Nigeria.

"Fighters of the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta attacked and destroyed three major pipelines ... We will continue indefinitely with attacks on all pipelines, platforms and support vessels," the group said in an e-mail.

Chief Joshua Benemesia, the head of a government-backed anti-piracy force, said he had confirmed the attack with members of the Bayelsa State volunteers who were stationed in the two areas attacked, Brass and Akassa.

Light, sweet crude for June delivery added 35 cents to $61.82 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange late afternoon in Singapore. The contract fell 46 cents a barrel to settle at $61.47 on Monday.

-cut-

A bombing by the group, known as MEND, in December of 2005 knocked out nearly a quarter of production in Africa's largest oil exporter which has still not been restored. The militant group also recently claimed responsibility for the kidnapping of six foreign oil workers last week.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[UpInArms]

9. The Great Oil Robbery

http://baltimorechronicle.com/2007/050707Lindorff.shtml

In case you’re wondering why crude oil prices are down from last year, hanging around at about $60 a barrel, while gasoline prices have soared past $3.10/gallon nationwide, just check out the latest profit reports from the oil companies. They are at record levels.

The answer for this seeming contradiction is simple: Americans are being robbed blind by the oil industry.

Sure, the oil companies, and their PR and lobbying agency, the American Petroleum Institute, will give you all kinds of reasons for higher gasoline prices at a time of falling crude prices: problems at two refineries in Texas and Oklahoma, rising demand or whatever. But the real answer is that there is simply no competitive market in this industry.

As Tim Hamilton, a researcher and petroleum industry consultant with the Foundation for Taxpayer and Consumer Rights, observes, the oil companies all store their crude oil and refined gasoline in the same tanks, and all know exactly how much inventory each other company has, so they don’t have to meet and collude on pricing in order to reap the huge rewards of deliberate supply constraints.

Says Hamilton, “Years ago, you had companies that would try to guess when the other companies were going to have supply shortfalls of gasoline in the summer. They’d ramp up their own gasoline refining and then supply the market at a lower price and eat their competitors’ lunches, the same way General Motors would do if Ford had a problem on its assembly line. But today, no oil company would do that. They all benefit by keeping the supplies tight.”

...more...

[WePurrsevere]

16. Thank you for posting this... gas is up to $3.12 here & it's hurting many...

even those who don't use a car at all or very much.

As I'm sure most on DU are all to well aware, high gas prices hurt the farmers who pass on their expenses, the truckers who pass on their expenses and so forth this all then "trickles" down to us as we go to buy food and pay higher prices. For those of us on low or a fixed income it's making something as basic as eating a healthy meal more expensive and therefore more of a financial challenge.

Although I understand capitalism and the need for some (fair) profit I think there should be a line drawn that says this is OTT, it is harmful to the nation as a whole and has slipped into excessive GREED.

[AnneD]

29. I have no idea why....

but my cheapie Citgo stationed dropped to 2.69. Everyone was filling up there today. It was 2.74 last week.

[WePurrsevere]

35. Citgo runs a bit more then $3.12 gal. up here. I know we pay wild taxes

up here but I don't think even NYs taxes are 40 cents a gallon more wild. :wow:

It's interesting to see the differences in prices all over the nation. On this gas buddy gas temp map we're the bright light green all the way at border on NY and Canada. This is not an area with a lot of money either. There are a lot of low income and farmers struggling.
http://www.gasbuddy.com/gb_gastemperaturemap.aspx?z=0&lat=36.945312280395505&long=-95.921875

[DemReadingDU]

37. Very interesting gas map!

S.W. Ohio was up to $3.19. Yikes!

[mojavekid]

24. Asia Times: All that oil and nowhere to go

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/IE05Ag01.html

ALMATY, Kazakhstan - A combination of East-West geopolitical rivalries and haggling among former Soviet republics is delaying the construction of a series of oil and gas pipelines that could help alleviate the world's energy-supply concerns.

Energy experts say meeting the world's increasing energy needs in the coming decades lies in building a dozen existing and planned pipelines capable of helping the movement of oil and gas from Central Asian countries to Europe and the United States.

That, in turn, has raised to prominence the role of the resource-rich Central Asian states - Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan.

But the debate over the routes the pipelines would take has gotten bogged down in the political ambitions of the US and Russia on the one hand and Turkey on the other, according to experts and politicians who attended the mid-April annual Eurasia Media Forum here in Kazakhstan's largest city and former capital.

more...

[ozymandius]

4. U.S. Stock-Index Futures Drop; Tyco, Cisco Fall in Europe

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures fell on concern earnings growth won't be enough to sustain a five-week rally.

Health-care and electronics products maker Tyco International Ltd. fell after announcing quarterly results. Cisco Systems Inc., the world's biggest maker of computer networking equipment, also dropped.

Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures expiring in June fell 4 to 1510.30 as of 10:50 a.m. in London. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slid 30 to 13,310. Nasdaq 100 Index futures decreased 6.5 to 1900.25.

Takeovers helped U.S. stocks rally for a fifth consecutive day yesterday, marking the market's best initial performance in May in 17 years. Alcoa Inc.'s $26.9 billion unsolicited offer for Alcan Inc. spurred the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its 24th gain in 27 days -- the longest stretch since 1927 -- and left the Standard & Poor's 500 Index within 1.2 percent of its 2000 peak.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aCbc7oOkBzpo&refer=us

[ozymandius]

5. Good morning everyone.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

The day begins frenetically. So I must leave for a morning filled with meetings. Back before lunch (hopefully).

Ozy :hi:

[AnneD]

27. Morning Marketeers......

:donut: and lurkers. We'll keep your seat warm for you Ozy.

I am having to work hard to 'find my joy' today.

I am beside myself at the way the military and esp the Reserve and Guard are treated. I knew that this continual RE-deployment of the National Guard would bite us in the butt-and it has. No equipment and no trained personnel to manage a disaster. Politicos might want to be careful of that because when folks finally have had enough and start to riot....you might have a problem. That's how it started in Iraq. Not that we would be that bad, but gangs involved in drug and kidnappings are starting to show up on the borders and we are seeing an increase here in Houston. Might be in our future, esp if you add something like a natural disaster to the mix.

Where did I 'find my joy'. I thought the Queen look nice (the milliner got it just right). DC needed a dose of manners and gentility. It may have only been a veneer, but it was a breath of fresh air.

I found the honesty of French elections a breath of fresh air. One candidate had not married the father of her four children. The other candidate's mistresses were as well known as was his wife. And his wife was saying she might not move into the Presidential Palace. They interviewed one Frenchman and he said that people that go into politics sometime have large appetites and this was to be expected (I have accepted this since I read the personal histories of our founding fathers and some of our great modern Presidents). In fact he said, it could be a sign of greatness. I had such a laugh. I also thought it was good that they had such a high turn out and the French were not so afraid to protest their results. I think that is what real democracy looks and feels like. It is not a 'tidy' process at all, but it is not something to fear either.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[UpInArms]

6. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 81.810 Change +0.135 (+0.17%)

US Dollar: Gas Prices Hit Record High Days before Fed Meeting

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/US_Dollar__Gas_Prices_Hit_1178571080160.html

US Dollar: Gas Prices Hit Record High Days before Fed Meeting



The US dollar is visibly weaker today, but trading has remained exceptionally quiet with the EUR/USD trapped within a 35 pip trading range for the past 24 hours. Even though Japanese traders are back in the market,London traders are out on holiday. Therefore the activity will not begin to pick up until tomorrow, when currency traders begin to lay on pre FOMC trades. The only piece of US data released today was consumer credit, which increased by a much stronger than expected $13.5 billion from $3.0 billion. The focus of the market this week is central bank meetings starting with the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. The dollar is treading water going into meeting since it is unclear whether or not the Federal Reserve will adopt a less hawkish tone. They face a very difficult decision with average gasoline prices hitting a record high at a time when economic growth is beginning to falter. Non-farm payrolls on Friday were weak. First quarter GDP was the slowest in the 4 years while the housing market is beginning to give way. The tug of war between inflation and growth gives the Fed little room to alter the FOMC statement. Even though we think that recent data warrants more cautionary comments on growth, the Fed will most likely wait for a few more weeks of data to ensure that the deterioration in growth is continuing before changing the tune of their statement. Team Bernanke has often put inflation ahead of growth and for the time being, we do not expect this to change. There is no doubt that the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25 percent. If the statement does remain unchanged, expect the US dollar to recover. In the off chance that they acknowledge the weakness in growth, we could see the EUR/USD target 1.3700.

...more...

Dow Jones Continues to Set Record Highs, but Dollar Tanks: Is Anyone Watching?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/Dow_Jones_Continues_to_Set_1178603326365.html

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has recently broken the all-important 13,000 barrier on relatively little fanfare, quietly setting fresh record-highs on significantly less media attention than the last time around the track. There are many different plausible reasons for the uneventful record-high, but they all seem to point towards the same conclusion: the recent stock market rally is not as nearly broadly-based as in the past.

Likewise significant, these fresh records in the Dow and multi-year highs in the S&P 500 have not forced any worthwhile rallies in the US dollar. As many of us already know, the dollar currently sits at all-time lows against the Euro and multi-decade lows against the British Pound. Thus one of the reasons that the US equity market rally does not feel nearly as broad-based as earlier uptrends is clear: international investors have not bought into the domestic bull market and have otherwise diversified out of the downtrodden greenback.

Where are the International Investors?

Unlike in the past, there have been several key factors that have kept world equity markets from driving currency gains. The most prominent should be fairly obvious to the active currency trader: interest rates have been and will continue to be the primary force behind medium-term currency trends. The reason that the dollar has fallen to multi-year lows is relatively straightforward: falling overall yield differentials leave the Greenback at a clear disadvantage against its major counterparts (see here for more). Likewise significant, international equity indices have kept pace with the US market—reducing the attractiveness of American corporate shares. The very fact that the dollar has been so weak has only further reduced the attractiveness of owning US equities. The chart below shows just how little the S&P has rallied in Euro terms.



<snip>

S&P 500 Continues Higher While Volume Keeps Falling

In fact, one only needs to look at volume data to see that overall trading has been significantly lower through the last year of rallies. Unlike the Q4, 2004 - Q2, 2006 uptrend, trading volumes have been consistently dropping on a monthly basis.



...more...

[UpInArms]

7. The ugly face of foreclosure: When foreclosures climb, entire communities can go down

http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/02/real_estate/face_of_foreclosure/

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Foreclosures are devastating communities across the United States, and the impact may only worsen as more subprime adjustable mortgages reset during the next few months.

Foreclosure filings are up 35 percent nationwide since a year ago, according to RealtyTrac.

<snip>

And the worst may be yet to come. Rokakis said Cuyahoga County is on track for 16,000 foreclosures this year, up from about 3,500 annually in Cleveland during the mid-1990s.

The impact can reach far beyond the affected homeowners. Rokakis says streets lined with foreclosures look like "mouths with teeth knocked out of them."

<snip>

And the actual owners of the foreclosed properties - the investors who own the loans - may stop paying taxes as well. Said Branchatelli, "They may send someone around to take a look at the place, who decides it's not worth even going through the foreclosure process. They may just take a powder."

...more...

[UpInArms]

8. The buyers: The Quams and the too-good-to-be-true mortgage

http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/01/real_estate/bubble_buyers.moneymag/index.htm?postversion=2007050214

excerpting down to where it means something:

But what really supercharged the market was the mortgage industrial complex - a machine with cogs called brokers and bankers, fueled by money poured in by investment banks, bond traders and hedge fund managers. The system prospered and grew, introducing new players into the financing transaction and transforming the roles of others.

Finally it ran amok, creating huge incentives at every level of a home sale or a refi to sacrifice prudence in pursuit of a killing. Market checks and balances should have prevented the process from getting out of control. But they were corrupted, co-opted or simply steamrollered.

Too much money. Too little restraint. This is the story of how all the important players in the market decided that they had too much at stake to shout, "Stop!" We've been here before: Remember when Wall Street analysts told us Amazon.com was worth $400 a share?

<snip>

The primary mortgage on the Quams' condo was fixed at 5.25 percent, but Brandi had also taken out a smaller variable-rate loan. As rates rose in 2005, she went looking for a better deal and entered her contact information into a few Web sites.

Shortly thereafter, she says, she got a call from broker Robert Hoover of CPA Mortgage in Maryland. He found her a new loan with what she says she understood to be an initial 1 percent rate, with only small increases in the first five years. And since she had equity (her condo had appreciated), she could even take a little cash out to pay off some bills. The transaction earned the broker and his firm about $12,600.

It took a few months before Brandi realized what she had done. The mortgage was something called an option ARM. It was true that Brandi could make initial minimum payments of about $800. But those weren't enough to cover the interest she was actually being charged, which was higher than the rate used to calculate required payments. The unpaid interest was added to the loan balance, a phenomenon called negative amortization.

...more...

[UpInArms]

11. The brokers: Would you get your mortgage from this man?

http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/01/real_estate/bubble_brokers.moneymag/index.htm?postversion=2007050215

excerpting once again:

For better and for worse, the new mortgage sales machine made it much easier to get a loan. And if a mortgage option was mathematically possible, a broker made sure you knew about it. He or she could get you a low annual rate, help you avoid a down payment or find you a super-low initial monthly payment.

Shibley's particular pitch is "no closing costs," which looks to be an easy sell to borrowers suddenly short on cash. "This industry is a disaster," he says. All these mortgage options can make sense in certain circumstances and hurt you in others. (You may actually prefer to pay closing costs, for example, if that gets you a lower rate and you plan to stay in the loan long enough to work off the costs.) The tricky part is figuring out which loan works for you.

A good mortgage broker can help you do that, and Shibley says that's what his people do. But not all brokers will. Brokers can be paid more if they can convince you to pay a higher rate than you qualify for, or borrow more money than you need. And they resist efforts by lawmakers to give them a fiduciary obligation to act in the borrower's best interest.

"We do not solely represent the consumer," says George Hanzimanolis, president-elect of the National Association of Mortgage Brokers.

In short, it's best to shop around - and it's easy enough to do that on a basic fixed-rate mortgage. It's a lot harder to comparison-shop loans with payment options and variable rates, which is why brokers love to sell them.

...more...

[UpInArms]

12. The appraisers: Price estimates made to order

http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/01/real_estate/bubble_appraisers.moneymag/index.htm?postversion=2007050214

excerpting:

MONEY has obtained more than 100 e-mails and faxes sent by loan officers to appraisers across the country. The language varies from asking if a predetermined value was possible to promising more business if a number could be hit.

"Many homeowners are finding out that the equity they were led to believe they had in their house is not actually there," says John Taylor, president of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition.

According to an appraiser MONEY hired, Kim's house is worth only $580,000 and was at the time he refinanced the house. Yes, different appraisers often have different takes. In Kim's case the appraisers disagree about whether an enclosed porch counts as part of the total square footage.

But ALG's Yi strongly suggested to appraisers what the answer ought to be. In an e-mail she sent to numerous appraisers, Yi said she needed "a value of $650,000 or more. Please let me know ASAP with max value." Five days later Paul Chasteen, an appraiser in Discovery Bay, produced the appraisal that led to Kim's $642,000 mortgage, less than Yi wanted but enough to do a deal. ALG got him loans for the full appraised value.

The result: Kim now owes $62,000 more than his house may be worth. Kim put the money from the refinancing into a dry-cleaning business and paying off a car loan. He can't move without foreclosing. "It's not a good feeling," he says.

...more...

[Hugin]

25. "the appraisers disagree about whether an enclosed porch counts as part of the total square footage"

Square footage has always been an ill-defined heuristic for determining the value of Real Estate.

The 'rule' I've always heard is that square footage is the portion of the building for which
climate control is present.

There's always the 'finished garage' myth... First the builders would put up a few sheets of
drywall and call it 'finished'... Then they'd spray on some texture... Next it took some paint...
It's changed so much, now I imagine it requires carpeting.

Thanks for posting this series.

[UpInArms]

13. The investors: How to get rich trading "idiot" loans

http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/01/real_estate/bubble_investors.moneymag/index.htm?postversion=2007050213

excerpting:

Option ARMs? Devaney loves 'em. "The consumer has to be an idiot to take on those loans," he says. "But it has been one of our best-performing investments."

<snip>

The trouble is, Wall Street's rocket scientists keep finding more sophisticated ways to repackage and resell mortgages. As a result, lenders stopped worrying so much about credit standards and learned to love risky loans.

Look, for example, at the financial Frankenstein's monster known as the collateralized debt obligation, or CDO. Brought to life in the 1990s, the CDO helped solve a knotty problem for lenders. They were often left holding a small amount of loans that were too dodgy to sell to investors at an attractive price.

But what if you grouped the payments from all those risky mortgages together, along with some other investments, and you sold some investors the right to be the first ones to get paid?

<snip>

"Some of the investors who bought CDOs certainly took on more risk than they thought," says John Weicher, a former assistant secretary of housing now at the Hudson Institute. But Devaney, who told a crowd of investors that the riskiest mortgage bonds looked "awful" before the crash, says he thinks he'll be buying. "I don't believe the carnage and fallout will be as bad as people think," he says.

...more...

[Zywiec]

10. Why doesn't the NASDAQ ever do as well as the Dow?

[Roland99]

14. The Dow represents some form of safety in unsure economic times.

How can one go wrong with a mondo global conglomerate, eh?

[UpInArms]

15. U.S. April small business confidence dipped-survey

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0839476620070508

WASHINGTON, May 8 (Reuters) - Optimism at small U.S. businesses faded in April as inflation became more of a concern, according to a survey released on Tuesday.

The National Federation of Independent Business said its index of small business optimism fell for the third straight month, dropping 0.5 point to 96.8 last month.

"Overall, expectations for the economy are soft," William Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said in a statement. "Real growth will continue, but closer to 2 percent than to 3 percent.

"While growth is slower, inflation pressures are growing," Dunkelberg said. "Higher labor costs are not helping the inflation situation."

...more...

[UpInArms]

17. Couple Expected to Plead Guilty to Insider Trading This Week

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/08/business/08insider.html?ex=1336276800&en=37bf0b8b73a1fa71&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

A former Morgan Stanley compliance officer and her husband are expected to plead guilty this week to charges stemming from an insider-trading case that prosecutors say was part of the largest such scheme on Wall Street since the 1980s.

Federal prosecutors said in March that Randi E. Collotta, a lawyer and compliance officer at Morgan Stanley, tipped off her husband, Christopher K. Collotta, and a Florida broker, Marc R. Jurman, about deals, including the acquisition of Argosy Gaming by Penn National Gaming.

“The government anticipates that both defendants will be ready to enter guilty pleas on May 10, 2007,” an assistant United States attorney, Andrew L. Fish, said in a letter to a Manhattan federal judge that was posted by the court on the case docket.

The charges were part of an insider-trading crackdown against employees at Morgan Stanley and Bear Stearns. In all, 13 people were charged in separate schemes that authorities said stretched over five years and yielded more than $15 million in illegal profits.

...more...

[UpInArms]

18. Yesterday's report: Consumer Borrowing Increased in March by Most in 4 Months

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/08/business/08econ.html?ex=1336276800&en=d6a39a8a6fc6eb65&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

WASHINGTON, May 7 (Bloomberg News) — Consumer borrowing increased in March by the most in four months as Americans charged more purchases to their credit cards and took out more car loans, Federal Reserve figures show.

Consumer credit, or nonmortgage loans to individuals, increased $13.5 billion, or 6.7 percent at an annual rate, to $2.425 trillion, the Fed said Monday. In February, consumer debt rose $5.6 billion.

Consumers faced with tapped-out home equity loans and falling real estate values may be turning to credit cards to keep spending. Gary Thayer, chief economist at A. G. Edwards & Sons in St. Louis, said low unemployment was also providing support for consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of economic growth.

<snip>

The increase for March was the largest since a $20.1 billion gain in November, according to Fed statistics.

Revolving debt, like that on credit cards, rose $6.8 billion in March after rising $2.2 billion a month earlier, according to statistics from the Fed. Nonrevolving debt, like auto and mobile home loans, rose $6.7 billion for the month after increasing $3.4 billion a month earlier.

...more...

[Roland99]

19. We heading for some summer doldrums?

That credit can't last forever.

[AnneD]

30. That is some scary news....

folks can't even weather a spike in gas without borrowing more. We are in sad shape.

[mojavekid]

20. Daily Pfennig 5/8/07: Top Ten Stories of the Week!

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=1371

Good day... Well, it must have been something I said yesterday, because the anti-Chuck emails are filling my mailbox... Accusing me of this that and the other thing... Look... I have restrictions on specific things I can say, according to the regulators... Yesterday, I wasn't saying that on May 9th or 10th, we would see Armageddon with the dollar... All I was trying to tell you is that there are storm clouds forming over the dollar from the multitude of potential market-moving events these days, and one should make sure they are prepared...

The list of currencies that could potentially benefit from dollar selling is long... But as always, the list is topped by the euro... Then followed by the usual suspects with Current Account Surpluses... Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Asian currencies... The currencies which enjoy rate differentials to the dollar and will have that rate differential increased if all plays out this week won't be far behind... Australia, New Zealand, and the U.K.

And believe it or don't, the euro was offered (sold) last night and now resides below 1.36.... I have no idea what traders have on their minds. Let's face it, they know all the things I pointed out yesterday begin tomorrow, and yet, they sell euros and buy dollars... To me, I would think that doing nothing at this point makes more sense than taking profits on euros... But then, that's just me!

more...

[mojavekid]

21. The Street: Prudent Bear's Tice Says the Plunge Is Coming

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/funds/fundmorning/10354751.html

Global warming must be affecting the stock market as well. It isn't just polar bears that are in trouble. Bears of any kind are being wiped out left and right, and they're nearly extinct.
Someone call the World Wildlife Fund.

One of the few bears left in the wild is the so-called Prudent Bear (BEARX) -- which, if my schoolboy Latin is correct, might also be known as Ursa Prudens.

It's been more than 10 years since Dallas-based investment manager David Tice launched this mutual fund to hoard gold, short the market and prepare ordinary investors for the coming economic Armageddon.

We spoke last week, just after the Dow topped 13,000.

more...

[AnneD]

31. These quotes ...

really stood out....

"In all, Tice argues that the rally of the past four years is masking a long-term bear market that began in 2000 and won't end for at least another five years.

The reason? In short, Tice argues that the bull market is simply massive asset inflation caused by reckless lending and easy money. Sooner or later, he says, it will have to be worked out of the system.

Our philosophy is that this has been asset inflation, created by rampant, excess credit." He argues the global money supply has grown by 18% a year for the past four years (no wonder asset prices are booming)."

<big snip and his parting words>

"None of this has led to a dramatic market collapse yet. Tice notes that everyone in has a vested interest in keeping the game going as long as possible. "There are no enemies of asset inflation," he says. "Washington likes it. Wall Street likes it. Consumers like it." But as the sun shines on the markets around the world, he still believes storm clouds are on their way. "I am as confident as ever that we are going to be right," Tice says, though he concedes: "Things are playing out more slowly than we thought."




I have been following the market since the late '70's. This market hasn't felt right since 2000. Yes, it has been going up numerically-but it just hasn't made any sense. These, esp the last quote put it into focus for me. I want to be close to a chair when the music stops.:scared:

[mojavekid]

34. Hi AnneD! - Prudent Bear's Credit Bubble Bulletin,

is required reading IMHO.

and I do agree with Chris Laird over at Prudent Squirrel that it will take much longer to play out than many expect, especially in the Gold community. I hear what the bears are predicting and I double it. No research to back THAT up! just a gut feeling.

Jim Willie, in his most recent free article, hammered on Barrick, and how they are not really a mining co. but a tool of Central banks; basically operating to keep Gold prices suppresed. I have always felt that way about Barrick, and the fact that there are Bushie's connected to them, I believe on the Board of Governors??? - just cinches it for me.

The bottom line is they are going to do whatever it takes, and go further than most expect to keep this charade going.

It will make the correction all the more severe and long lasting when it does come, as it certainly must, the consequences of this economy continuing in this manner are truely sad. Overconsumption leading to resource depletion, pollution, inflation due to rampant money printing, and a constantly widening disparity between the haves and have-nots...

-mojavekid

[AnneD]

36. If you have followed these things for a few cycles.

and been paying attention, you get a feel for things. I saw this housing bubble coming the minute I heard about ARM's being used to deal with high housing costs. They sounded like the balloon mortgages we used to deal with interest rates of the 80's- 20%, June 1981. We stopped even looking because we steadfastly refused to go over budget.

If we can get the funds together-we may be able to catch a bargain. but I am determined we won't get caught with our pants down.

[DemReadingDU]

39. Interesting article

My gut feeling is that our economy is going to implode sooner rather than later. It will not be an easy time for most people to go thru. :(

[mojavekid]

22. TDR: e-gold Under Attack by U.S. Govt., Could the U.S. Ban Gold Again?

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/e-gold/2007/05/03/

Did you see that the U.S. Department of Justice indicted on-line firm e-gold on charges of money laundering, conspiracy, and operating an un- licensed money transmitting business? The government claims e-gold’s easy-to- use private transaction service makes it easier for criminals to launder money. For good measure, the Fed’s added that a digital payments system in gold would be favoured by terrorists, child pornographers, and other real or imagined enemies of the Nation state and civil society.

Did it occur to the Fed’s that maybe people want to use gold as money because they have no confidence in the fraudulent, counterfeit product currently printed by the U.S. Treasury?

Governments fear gold because it competes with their own paper currency as a viable and preferred means of exchange AND a store of value. So, under the guise that only people with something to hide would use a digital payment system backed by gold, the U.S. government is hoping to obscure what the very existence of a company like e-gold signals: a growing lack of trust in the money of the American government.

more...

[mojavekid]

23. CS Monitor: Film’s Wall Street Predator to Make a Comeback

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/05/movies/05movi.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Greed is still good.

Or so those at 20th Century Fox hope. Even as their boss, Rupert Murdoch, pursued an uninvited takeover bid for Dow Jones this week, Fox movie executives quietly sealed a deal to revive Gordon Gekko, the suspender-loving financial prowler who made grabbing seem good in Oliver Stone’s 1987 film, “Wall Street.”

When last seen, the corrupt Gekko, an Oscar-winning role for Michael Douglas, was on the brink of surrendering his white cuffs for handcuffs, having been sold out by his protégé Bud Fox, played by Charlie Sheen.

“He went to jail,” acknowledged Edward R. Pressman, who produced the original movie and reached an agreement with Fox this week to develop a sequel in which Mr. Douglas will resume his machinations on a global scale in the hedge-fund era. Mr. Pressman declined to say more about the plot. But the title, he said, will be “Money Never Sleeps,” after one of Gekko’s guiding principles in the first film, written by Stanley Weiser and Mr. Stone.

more...

No lack of material to work with here....!

[ozymandius]

26. lunchtime check-in

12:15
Dow 13,263.40 Down 49.57 (0.37%)
Nasdaq 2,560.81 Down 10.14 (0.39%)
S&P 500 1,503.50 Down 5.98 (0.40%)
10-Yr Bond 4.624% Down 0.012
NYSE Volume 1,285,483,000
Nasdaq Volume 888,907,000

12:00 pm : The indices are posting modest losses midday as a sense that stocks are overbought at current levels overshadows more M&A news and upside guidance from a Dow component.

With the major averages enjoying five straight weeks of gains, it hasn't been a big surprise to see such an impressive run-up prompt some sort of profit taking today, even as many of the catalysts behind the recent rally are present again this morning.

On the M&A front, Thomson (TOC 41.29 -1.54) and Reuters (RTRSY 75.49 -1.01) confirmed they are in talks to potentially merge in a $17.6 bln deal while Arcelor Mittal (MT 56.07 -1.41) is reportedly set to bid $4.5 bln for AK Steel (AKS 35.12 +3.06).

Dow component Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 44.69 +0.89) opening at a new 52-week high after raising its Q2 earnings outlook and issuing upside Q3 guidance has also given investors something to cheer about.

Nonetheless, the Dow logging its 24th gain in 27 tries and closing with its fifth straight record yesterday has left the bulls looking tired and sellers questioning the sustainability of recent market gains hungry to take some money off the table. All 10 sectors are in negative territory, paced by declines Telecom (-0.9%), Materials (-0.8%), and Utilities (-0.7%); but that too is understandable since all three also rank as this year's best performing sectors with an average gain of 13.2%. DJ30 -61.52 NASDAQ -12.07 SP500 -7.33 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2133/763/826 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2283/787/578 mln

[Roland99]

28. "stocks are overbought". Bet you $100 that by later this week or early next...

the rhetoric will be "stocks are seen as a buying opportunity"


But, missing in between will be any real type of downward correction.



And look at the DEC/ADV again. Yesterday it split evenly on NASDAQ and the DOW had a slight lean toward ADV but whenever it goes down, it's almost all or nothing.

[Eugene]

32. SEC charges two with DJ insider trading

Source: Reuters

SEC charges two with DJ insider trading

1 hour, 32 minutes ago

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. regulators on Tuesday accused a husband
and wife in Hong Kong of insider trading stemming from their purchases
of Dow Jones & Co. Inc. (NYSE: DJ) shares prior to News Corp.'s
(NYSE:NWSA) $5 billion takeover bid.

The couple, Kan King Wong and Charlotte Ka On Wong Leung, are
accused of buying 415,000 shares of Dow Jones shares "while in
possession of material, nonpublic information regarding the offer to buy
DJ by News Corp," the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said.

The SEC, in a civil complaint filed in Manhattan federal court, contends
that the couple bought Dow Jones stock from April 13 to April 30, before
the takeover offer for the Wall Street Journal publisher became public
on May 1.

-snip-

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070508/bs_nm/sec_dowjones_dc

[AnneD]

33. Over-the-air HD is free, so some television owners are putting antennas to good use

CLEVELAND — Buying an antenna for a high-definition television seems as out of place as using a rotary phone to make a call.

But some consumers are spending thousands of dollars on LCD or plasma TVs and hooking them up to $50 antennas that don't look much different from what grandpa had on top of his black-and-white picture tube.

<snip>
Local TV channels, broadcast in HD over-the-air, offer superior picture quality over the often-compressed signals sent by cable and satellite TV companies.

And the best part? Over-the-air HD is free.

"Eighty-year-old technology is being redesigned and rejiggered to deliver the best picture quality," said Richard Schneider, president of Antennas Direct. "It's an interesting irony."

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/4783829.html

:patriot: jerryrigging-the true good old American know how.

[UpInArms]

38. the closing numbers and some yada

Dow 13,309.07 3.90 (0.03%)
Nasdaq 2,571.75 0.80 (0.03%)
S&P 500 1,507.72 1.76 (0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.634% 0.002

NYSE Volume 2,835,654,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,017,172,000

After stumbling out of the gate, the major averages slowly clawed their way higher to close relatively unchanged as several weeks of underlying bullish momentum didn't stay idle long enough for the bears to declare an outright victory. The Dow, which was down as much as 75 points intraday, closed down less than four points. The Nasdaq, down 0.8% at its lows, closed just above the flat line.

With several indices hitting historic levels of late, it wasn't surprising to see investors exercise a cautious stance ahead of tomorrow's FOMC meeting.

Nonetheless, the market's resilience in the face of a rebound in oil prices and some quarterly shortfalls from a handful of S&P 500 constituents (e.g. DUK, EP, HET, MMC, and THC) was noteworthy since the broader market only enjoyed upside leadership from two economic sectors.

As evidenced by the tech-laden Nasdaq holding on to enough momentum to eke out a gain, Technology turned in the day's best performance. Cisco Systems (CSCO 28.36 +0.55) -- a suggested holding in the Briefing.com Active Portfolio -- surged 2.0% ahead of its earnings report after the bell. Dow component Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 45.07 +1.27) provided additional sector support after raising its Q2 earnings outlook and issuing upside Q3 guidance. Expectations for a strong report from Electronic Arts (ERTS 52.94 +1.57) earmarked Home Entertainment Software as the day's best performing S&P industry group.

After being down more than 1.0% earlier in the session, Energy turning the corner midday also returned some much needed leadership. After six straight days of declines, crude for June delivery rose 1.3% to $62.26/bbl after the EIA raised U.S. oil demand forecasts for Q2 and Q3 by 20,000 bpd. Reports of more political unrest in Nigeria also raised concerns about potential supply disruptions.

Notably, transportation stocks gained ground in the face of oil's rebound as higher energy prices continue to make Railroads (+1.6%) look attractive as a more affordable alternative. The group was in focus all day after CSX Corp (CSX 46.52 +0.62) lifted its dividend 25% and raised its repurchase program by $1.0 bln. Another notable buyback announcement came from Ryder System (R 53.53 +1.31)...DJTA +1.0%.

(edited 'cuz it wasn't that red)