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Zenlitened Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-10-07 11:12 AM
Original message
Economists See Housing Slump Enduring Longer
Source: Wall Street Journal

Economists See Housing Slump Enduring Longer
Downturn Is Expected To Keep Growth Tepid; Retailers Feel the Pinch

By James R. Hagerty, Jonathan Karp and Mark Whitehouse
June 9, 2007; Page A1

Economists are giving up on the idea that the U.S. housing slump will be quick and relatively painless.

Instead, more are concluding, the downturn that began nearly two years ago will last at least through the end of 2007, remaining a major drag on the U.S. economy. The culprits: a glut of homes for sale and growing caution among lenders who now regret being so free with their mortgages during the boom.

(snip)

Housing accounts for a lot of jobs, not only in construction but in related areas such as mortgage finance and furniture sales. Zoltan Pozsar, senior economist at Moody's Economy.com, estimates that housing-related sectors created nearly 1.3 million jobs between January 2003 and March 2006. Since then, he says, housing jobs have declined by almost 300,000. He sees more losses to come during the summer, which is usually a big building season.

Home values can also influence consumer spending, as people use cash-out mortgage refinancings and home-equity loans to pull money out of their houses. At the peak of the housing boom in the third quarter of 2005, people were taking cash out of their homes at an annual rate of $709 billion, according to Michael Feroli, an economist at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co in New York. As of the first quarter of 2007, that number had fallen to $178 billion.

A prolonged housing slump would be particularly painful for retailers of the kinds of things people often buy when they move, such as building and gardening supplies. According to the Commerce Department, those retailers saw sales drop by 6% in the year ending April.


Read more: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118136019056730007.html?mod=moj_todays_paper



How do you prefer to receive bad news? The whole painful truth all at once? Or in dribs and drabs that slowly ratchet down your expectations?

The snipped paragraphs cite analysts who are revising their overall economic forecasts downward bit by bit, while blithely tossing in "they don't expect recession."

Three months from now, will the story be about ratcheting our expectations down a bit more? "Recession may be likely blah blah blah..."?

:shrug:
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Javaman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-10-07 11:19 AM
Response to Original message
1. why does the housing industry hate america? oh right, the money thing again. sorry. lol nt
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The_Casual_Observer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-10-07 11:33 AM
Response to Original message
2. The full extent of the loan scams that have gone on
is still unknown. I suspect that this housing problem is worse than the savings and loan one in the 80's.

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ProgressiveEconomist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-10-07 01:56 PM
Response to Reply #2
8. "Worse than the S&L crisis of the 80s" may be exactly right
You mention the S&L crisis of the early 80s. Lessons learned and "reforms" implemented in response to that crisis make today's mortgage default risk many times greater than 1981's.

S&Ls got into trouble in the 80s when high unemployment left millions unable to keep up with their mortgage payments. The institutions who originated the mortgages largely still retained the deeds for the defaulted collateral. Since they weren't set up to rent them out or even resell them for a "reasonable" loss, they had to auction-liquidate them through clearinghouses, driving property values down for years.

This time, most institutions that originated mortgages quickly sold them into securitized pools of loans with similar risk profiles. Those securities were sold and resold and used as collateral in loans for other purposes, such as stock speculation by totally unregulated hedge funds.

When higher ARM interest rates or higher unemployment triggers defaults, the value of the securities into which defaulted mortgages were wrapped declines. That can trigger fresh collateral demands and massive sales of other assets, such as popular stocks, all at once. People who own those other assets and never had anything to do with subprime mortgage securities then face margin calls and liquidation too.

This overleveraging of an entire economy creates a situation similar to financial vulnerability after the "roaring 20s". But federal deposit insurance, which has prevented repetition of "bank holdiays" and other signs of deep recession, doesn't apply to most huge brokerage accounts or to any hedge funds or big financial speculators.

Nobody knows how bad the situation could get if interest rates skyrocket, unemployment rises, and millions default on ARMs. Interest rates have just passed the 5 percent "tipping point", and estimates of growth for the first quarter of 2007 have just been revised downward to 0.6 percent. It's not time to panic, but risk is high.
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-10-07 05:39 PM
Response to Reply #8
11. Coincidentally occuring just as babyboomers hope to cash out on their ONE
Edited on Sun Jun-10-07 05:40 PM by SoCalDem
asset..their home.. What a co-inkee-dink :eyes:

as we entered our adult years we were gouged by recession after recession, double digit inflation, double didgit home / auto loans..elimination of defined benefits pensions traded in for defined contribution pensions (if ANY pensions)..downsized out of jobs, just as kids are ready for college (and asked to use our equity to co-sign their crushing debt)..caring for children of our children AND our aged parents..

wheeeeeee!!!!! What a ride..

and now that many of us are prepared to cash out, the housing market crashes...

wait for the other shoe folks !!

401-ks..:eyes:

The whole "system" is set up for the "little guy" to fail..and waiting in the wings is a "rich guy" just waiting to offer pennies on the dollar to "bail us out"..

How kind :)
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ProgressiveEconomist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-11-07 10:49 AM
Response to Reply #11
21. That's Reagan Republicanism 4you: a 'system ... set up for the little guy to fail',
as you so eloquently put it.

Largely out of the public eye, US multi-national corporations mastered the art of manipulating political systems in third-world countries, to bring about no-tax and union-free business environments. Then, with the election of Ronald Reagan, IMO they succeeded in bringing their plutocratic version of "democracy" home.

Most of the unfortunate changes in the economy you mention--the virtual end of defined-benefit pensions, wholesale corporate theft of pensions, offshoring (downsizing) of good jobs, wage growth stalled during 25 years of skyrocketing worker productivity, mortgages structured to maximize defaults and foreclosures--have come about since 1980. And you omitted the most ingenious Party-Of-The-Super-Rich triumphs: cutting the highest marginal income tax rates by TWO-THIRDS, and shifting that tax burden onto FICA payroll taxes. All in the name of "saving Social Security" in 1981, while setting up a "Trust Fund" with no real assets. Alan Greenspan feared a real-asset Trust Fund would lead inevitably to "socialism"--ie largescale government pension reinvestment in urban areas that instead were redlined, becoming ungovernable and unable to counteract the Republican vote-canceling machine.

Doubtless many corporations and Republican political coalitions were trying to achieve what GE apparently achieved by making Ronald Reagan their mouthpiece. A recent book by a REPUBLICAN author is a real eye-opener on how the highly successful "revolt of the haves" you describe came about:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From http://www.columbia.edu/cu/cup/publicity/evansexcerpt.html :

"THE EDUCATION OF RONALD REAGAN -- Thomas W. Evans -- CHAPTER ONE

... during his years with General Electric, Reagan developed more than a set of prepared remarks. He eventually became an integral part of the company's elaborate political initiative, probably the most comprehensive in corporate America. The program extended from the executive suites to GE's employees on the plant floor to the voters in the towns and cities where the plants were located. Reagan later described his experience as "an apprenticeship for public life." Toward the end of his years with GE, when transcripts of still-evolving versions of "The Speech" were made available to the public for the first time, Reagan felt he had experienced a conversion. He wrote in An American Life, "I wasn't just making speeches„I was preaching a sermon."

Reagan was a self-confessed Democrat and New Dealer when he arrived at GE. After his eight-year "postgraduate course in political science," conducted largely under the aegis of GE's vice president and labor strategist, Lemuel Boulware, Ronald Reagan came to expound on the need to reduce taxes and limit government. He described international communism, as Boulware and GE president Ralph Cordiner did, as "evil." He observed Boulware, who was regarded by many in corporate America as the most successful labor negotiator of all time, and Reagan himself became a knowledgeable negotiator during this period, equally at ease with corporate executives and blue-collar workers. His education stretched well beyond the bargaining table. ...

Lemuel Boulware believed that it was not enough to win over company employees on narrow labor issues. They must not only accept the offer but pass on GE's essentially conservative message to others, helping the company to win voters at the grass roots who would elect officials and pass legislation establishing a better business climate. In short, they would become "communicators" and "mass communicators," (Boulware's words) as they went through the company's extensive education program. In time, the program would also help to produce a "great communicator." And yet, for all the recent interest in the Reagan presidency, little has been written about how his change from liberal to conservative, from actor to politician, came about. A veil of secrecy has been drawn over this crucial period of Ronald Reagan's education. Part of the reason for this was Cordiner and Boulware's concern that GE's political efforts might come under attack as violating federal and state statutes that made partisan corporate political activity a crime. They also felt that GE's unions might find Boulware's aggressive negotiating posture„dubbed Boulwarism and still referred to as such in labor law texts„the basis for an unfair-labor-practice charge.

...several recent events bring new light to this study of Ronald Reagan's "education": the discovery of a collection of hitherto unpublished papers and a repository of GE corporate documents last published during the 1950s and 1960s; interviews with GE personnel who had been silent until now; and a reexamination of other publications and oral histories that now have a more meaningful context. Many observers consider the changes in Ronald Reagan during his GE years to be profound. ... To truly understand Ronald Reagan during and after the GE years, it is important to know what he was like when he came to the company. It is also important to know what the company was like„as later chapters will make clear„at the time when Reagan was an employee...."
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ProgressiveEconomist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-11-07 06:25 PM
Response to Reply #11
22. SCD--I reposted Reply #11 as its own thread, and it's tied with this one in
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Neshanic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-10-07 11:50 AM
Response to Original message
3. Even without the stock market crash coming this fall, the market will not rebound to the mania days.
Edited on Sun Jun-10-07 11:51 AM by Neshanic
In the summer of 2009 is when the housing market will start to recover, but it will even and very slow.
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Warpy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-10-07 12:34 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. I doubt it
for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, housing has been enormously overbuilt to satisfy the speculative market. Speculators have been snapping up mostly new construction and letting it sit empty for weeks, months, or even years, waiting until they think they have enough paper profit accrued to sell it.

Second, interest rates are more likely to rise than to fall. We are heading into an inflationary period in everything except housing because of the rise in manufacturing and transportation costs domestically and because the falling dollar is making foreign goods and services more expensive. The transition to a saner economy that doesn't export all the good jobs and paychecks and import all the debt is going to be a painful one. Rising interest rates will continue to shut people out of the market even as housing prices drop.

Eventually, as wages struggle to keep up with inflation, people will be able to consider buying rather than renting, but that's a long time in the future, I'm afraid.
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Gregorian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-10-07 03:18 PM
Response to Reply #6
9. I'll second that prediction.
I am carefully watching the market. Inventories are huge. Sales are dismal.

And one more thing I think could be a factor in all of this is the degree of risk that lenders have taken with mortgage holders. And the amount of debt holders are holding. I think people assumed growth would be endless, and extended themselves. That has a much bigger affect on spending than anything I can think of.

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NMDemDist2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-10-07 03:19 PM
Response to Reply #6
10. you are a smart lady warpy!
but i already knew that ;)
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Neshanic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-10-07 06:55 PM
Response to Reply #6
12. I agree also to a degree, but high growth markets will have miniscule and glacial
improvement after 2009.

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IChing Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-10-07 12:08 PM
Response to Original message
4. There are some good observations in a thread I started
in GD........The housing market has a hole in it......

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=1079494&mesg_id=1079494

I do wonder about the dollar's downward spiral will have on banks and the housing market in general.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-10-07 12:11 PM
Response to Original message
5. With 3 Years of Housing Stock On the Market---Yah Think?
It took 10 years last time for the housing to recover, and that was just localized to New England, back in jolly old Reagan's time....
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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-10-07 01:46 PM
Response to Original message
7. The take away facts from the article are:
The take away facts from the article are:

A decrease in single-family housing starts of about 500,000 units, which is the same size of number that is estimated to be the number of additional units above the standard years 500,000 units that will return to the market via foreclosure and bank auction of the foreclosed homes at prices that will range from 5% to 25% below the prices at the top of the market at the end of 2005 (their are about 400,000 units additional units making a total moving via bank auction of 900,000 per year).

Both of the above effects are expected to continue to some date in 2008 before prices begin there upward climb again nationwide, with new home starts stuck at 1.2 million units being a "drag" on the economy (until they bounce back to the 1.8 million units we had previously) lowering the growth in GDP until the 3rd quarter of 2008 from the prior projected 3/0% to 2.8 % - with one person suggested 2% growth for the next few quarters as we bounce off the bottom.

The jobs affect is a current drop of 300,000 from the 1.3 million housing sector related jobs created between 1/03 and 3/06. That drop will get worse this summer. and will not get better either until new homes moves off the current 1.2 million units per year floor.

Housing prices will not increase on a national basis until the record 2.2 million vacant single-family homes and condos for sale nationwide, about one million above the norm, decreases. But some local markets are strong with prices still rising nicely as in Manhattan, Seattle, Houston and some other areas. In much of the country, home prices have been flat to moderately lower over the past year. At a recent auction of foreclosed homes in Los Angeles and Orange counties, many of the houses offered there sold for about 85% to 95% of previous prices or appraisals.

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AndyTiedye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-10-07 07:25 PM
Response to Reply #7
15. There Isn't Any Housing Surplus IN THE CITY

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girl gone mad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-11-07 01:07 AM
Response to Reply #15
19. Yes there is.
There may be a shortage of affordable housing in the city, but developers have overbuilt for the high-end market in most major cities.
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lurky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-12-07 01:37 AM
Response to Reply #19
24. Seriously.
Here in NY, I see luxury condo hi-rises going up on every corner. (With signs announcing "2BR apts. starting at $1.5 million!") Even with all the hedge fund money in the city, I just can't imagine there are enough millionaires to buy up all these ugly condos.
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ozone_man Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-10-07 07:14 PM
Response to Original message
13. At least by the end of 2007?
Who are they trying to kid? The end of 2010 is probably a better estimate. We haven't even seen the edge of the precipice yet. By next year same quarter, I think we'll have a better view of the cliff face.
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hack89 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-10-07 07:40 PM
Response to Reply #13
17. It depends on location
Where I live good houses in good neighborhood are selling quickly and holding their value. The reason is simple - there is no more land to develop yet many want to live here.
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girl gone mad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-11-07 01:14 AM
Response to Reply #17
20. Tokyo..
is an island, completely built up and the most desirable location in Japan, yet prices there managed to fall 60%++ during their real estate crash. You may have some protection, but there are no guarantees when manias come to an end.
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ozone_man Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-11-07 07:25 PM
Response to Reply #17
23. The three L's.
Location, location, location. But we're talking mostly about the average home price that will be taking a nose dive soon. I'm sure there are plenty of locations that haven't been hit yet, but even the best will be hit soon, in another year or two. The bigger the bubble and the longer it takes to inflate, the bigger the bust will be. First law of economics I think. ;)
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David__77 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-10-07 07:19 PM
Response to Original message
14. DUH!
That they were keeping up the "no housing crisis" mantra was ludicrous. I only have an MA in economics, but it's clear that there is a tremendous credit bubble. A short look at macroeconomic fundamentals in various markets shows that clearly! Here in Sacramento, things are really collapsing. I just looked at a model condo that was listed for 269,000 a couple weeks ago - now it's 229,000. Would have been over 300,000 at the peak.
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gravity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-10-07 07:32 PM
Response to Original message
16. It was a bubble
It was bound to burst because that's what bubbles do. The market isn't going to be rebound to how it was two years ago since the market was built off of speculation, not sounds financial decisions. Those who think things will eventually rebound from this are just living in denial.

The good news is that housing is going to be cheaper in the future for new home buyers, who could spend more money on other sectors of the economy. There are both winners and losers from this housing bubble.
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Delphinus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-10-07 08:24 PM
Response to Original message
18. One doesn't have to be an expert to know this.
One simply has to look around and see what's going on in their neighborhood, on their street.
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