Tories take five point lead

[villager]

Source: The Independent

Tories take five-point lead

By Andrew Grice, Political Editor

Published: 26 June 2007

The prospect of Gordon Brown calling an early general election receded after the latest monthly poll for The Independent gave the Tories a five-point lead over Labour. According to CommunicateResearch, David Cameron's party has extended its lead by one point in the past month. It dampened speculation that Mr Brown will seek a personal mandate from the voters sooner rather than later.

The survey shows the Tories on 37 per cent, up two points since last month, with Labour on 32 per cent (up one point) and the Liberal Democrats on 18 per cent (down one point). It suggests the incoming Prime Minister has not yet secured a "Brown bounce" in the polls, despite the broadly positive media coverage he has received.

Speculation that Mr Brown might call an election next spring was fuelled by an Ipsos MORI survey on Sunday putting Labour three points ahead of the Tories. This was taken between 14 and 20 June, but the CommunicateResearch polling was conducted between Friday and Sunday - after Mr Brown's offer to include Liberal Democrats in his ministerial team was rebuffed.

The Independent's findings suggest Mr Brown has a lot of work to do before he can contemplate going to the country. Even among people who regard themselves as natural Labour supporters, the party's support is falling rather than rising. The number who say they would vote Labour has dropped in the past month from 85 per cent to 83 per cent. In contrast, 93 per cent of Tory "identifiers" say they would back Mr Cameron's party (unchanged since last month).

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Read more: http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article2710625.ece

[Kagemusha]

1. He has his chance to prove himself. That's all he has a right to.

Time will tell.

[IndianaGreen]

2. Brown is Blair-lite. He is not pulling out of Iraq, and he won't break with Bush.

New Labour deserves defeat at the polls.

Go Liberal-Democrats!

[depakid]

3. That's sure NOT what I read on Sunday...

Tories in retreat as poll boosts Brown

A 'liberated' Gordon Brown will take over as leader of the Labour party today as a new poll reveals that Labour has pulled ahead of the Conservatives for the first time since October. The survey for The Observer, which will be of deep concern to the Tories, reveals the first signs of a 'Brown bounce' and the end of David Cameron's honeymoon with the British people.

The Ipsos MORI poll shows that 40 per cent of voters believe Brown would make the more capable Prime Minister, against 22 per cent who believe that Cameron would be better. The poll makes even worse reading for Lib Dem leader Sir Menzies Campbell, who is rated by just 5 per cent of voters.

Labour has also moved ahead of the Tories for the first time for eight months in a major poll. The party is on 39 per cent, up four points on last month, while the Tories have fallen one point, to 36 per cent. Labour's support appears to come from the Liberal Democrats, whose support has fallen from 18 to 15 per cent. The Tories will be alarmed by Cameron's personal ratings. These show Cameron's satisfaction rating is at 28 per cent, below Blair on 33 per cent but ahead of Campbell on 21 per cent.

Cameron's net satisfaction rating has fallen to minus 5 per cent. While this is better than Blair, on minus 27 per cent and Campbell on minus 25 per cent, they nevertheless show Cameron's 18-month honeymoon may be nearing an end.

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/politics/story/0,,2110066,00.html

[T_i_B]

4. And the moral of the story is...

...don't belive everything you read in the press, especially polls and surveys!

[acmavm]

5. Yep, that's what I keep telling people here. You can make a poll say

anything you want. And even if it's not intentionally skewed, you still may/will get results that don't reflect reality.

[LeftishBrit]

6. Well, there won't be an election for 2 years or so...

A lot could happen in that time.