New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure

[underpants]

Go ahead and read the whole thing. Spin spin and reverse it at the end.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=&e=4&u=/ap/20031231/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy


WASHINGTON - New claims for jobless benefits fell last week to the lowest level in nearly three years, a sign that America's businesses are feeling more confident that the economic recovery is genuine.

The Labor Department (news - web sites) reported Wednesday that new applications filed for unemployment insurance dropped by a seasonally adjusted 15,000 to 339,000 for the week ending Dec. 27. Last week's drop marked the third week in a row that claims went down and left claims at their lowest level since Jan. 20, 2001.

"There is clearly reason for optimism that we are getting on a significant job-generation track," said Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics.

The report was better than economists were expecting. They were forecasting a smaller decline that would have pushed claims down to a level of around 350,000.

The economy grew at a breakneck 8.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter, the best performance in nearly two decades. Analysts believe the economy slowed to a rate in the range of around 4 percent or 5 percent in the current quarter, which would still mark a solid showing.

Wednesday's report also showed that the number of unemployed people collecting jobless benefits for more than a week rose by 81,000 to 3.3 million for the week ending Dec. 20, the most recent period for which that information is available. This suggests that jobs are still hard to find for some workers.

[Turbineguy]

1. Yeah and on CNBC yesterday

They said the Iraq war had ended when the Saddam statue came down.

[priller]

2. Last paragraph

Economists believe that as companies' profits improve they will feel even more comfortable about ramping up investment and hiring new people, two crucial ingredients to the recovery's staying power.

I'm afraid I have to disagree with this. Corporate profits are already up over 40% from a few years ago, one reason why the stock market has gained so much. That hasn't translated into new jobs. At least not American jobs. The ramping up seems to be taking place elsewhere.

[TheWatcher]

9. And how much of this is actual Profit......

Remember, most of the earnings Data we get is based on "Pro-Forma" results and not earnings Bases on GAAP......

If you really examine the true earnings of most Corprations, you will find that there is definitely a lot you are not being told, and a lot that is not being, forgive the pun...."Accounted for"....

[TheWatcher]

10. And how much of this is actual Profit......

Remember, most of the earnings Data we get is based on "Pro-Forma" results and not earnings Bases on GAAP......

If you really examine the true earnings of most Corprations, you will find that there is definitely a lot you are not being told, and a lot that is not being, forgive the pun...."Accounted for"....

[mhr]

3. What About The 2.1 Million Losing Their Unemployment

As previously reported since the BFEE did not extend unemployment benefits past December 21st, 2003.

All this says is that the pace of layoffs is slowing.

That makes sense since there is a new lower level of jobs available in the country due to outsourcing and greed by the BFEE.

This news says nothing about the MILLIONS that are unemployed and the MILLIONS of LONG TERM unemployed like myself.

We will know that the economy is actually percolating when we see Job growth in the 200,000 to 300,000 per month range.

This is the more correct interpretation of these numbers i.e. meaningless because so many are already unemployed.

References:

http://www.jobwatch.org/

Bush is behind in his own job creation estimates by 1,259,000.

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20031212-fri.html#anchor0

"There seems to be a real disconnect between the actual numbers on the hiring front and the impressions that have been formed in financial markets. Total nonfarm payrolls have expanded by only 328,000 workers over the August to November 2003 period -- an average of 82,000 per month. That's far short of the pace of job creation that normally occurs at this stage in a business cycle recovery -- somewhere in the range of 250,000 to 300,000 per month. Yet many have been quick to interpret the recent modest pickup in hiring as a sign that Corporate America is finally breaking the shackles of risk aversion and emerging from the funk of recent years. The mix of recent hiring trends tells a very different picture. It turns out that fully 84% of the total increase in nonfarm payrolls over the August to November period is traceable to hiring in four segments of the labor market -- the temporary staffing industry, health, education, and government -- where combined jobs have increased by 68,000 per month. In other words, the bulk of the so-called hiring turnaround since August has been concentrated in either the contingent workforce (temps) or in those industry groupings that are least exposed to global competition. This hardly speaks of a US business sector that has consciously made an important transition from downsizing to expansion. It merely reflects the fact that scale is increasing in the most sheltered and least productive segments of the economy."

[underpants]

4. Wow from Morgan Stanley no less

I'm not expecting to see the author of that within 50 feet of a TV camera anytime soon. No no all is well remain calm go about your businesss but call us if you see anything suspicious.

[54anickel]

6. We'll see that reflected in the next report - BIG drop, they cut this

off on Dec 20. Extension ended on the 21st.

Wednesday's report also showed that the number of unemployed people collecting jobless benefits for more than a week rose by 81,000 to 3.3 million for the week ending Dec. 20, the most recent period for which that information is available. This suggests that jobs are still hard to find for some workers.

[Democrats unite]

5. The spin has gotten so bad...

I think people expect it now.

[dusty64]

7. I guess this is what

happened in the Soviet Union when government officials wrote their media mouthpieces propaganda releases. I find myself skeptical of everything I hear these days.

[underpants]

8. It's official! W is sucking less than he ever has before

at least sort of in terms of this.

Break out the band :eyes:

[tom_paine]

15. Exactly, dusty

You cannot believe the agencies of a Totalitarian Government, which is what the Imperial Family is rapidly instituting today in Amerika.

I believe that like I believe a 1979 Soviet Dept. of Agriculture report.

And yes, we here in the Empire are getting our first small tastes of what it must have been like to live in the Old Soviet Union, absent the differing philosphy used to justify their tyranny.

Just the first small taste. More to come, I'm afraid. It's the Bushevik as well as the Bolshevik Way.

[Danieljay]

11. total BS..

This doesn't include all those previously unemployed that ran out of benefits working part time for minimum wage at places like Wal-Mart. I was speaking to my father, who is retired, lives in the midwest, and spends his winters in south Texas every year (they call them "snowbirds"). He says the RV parks there are 2/3's empty, that many retirees aren't traveling due to the poor economy, medical expenses increasing, and get this...THE FEAR OF TERRORISM. We've gone from a thriving exciting economy to a country of fear and poverty in only 3 years. Congrats Mr. Bush.

This is pure propaganda to make the administration look good at the end of the year and has no basis in reality.

Ask me how I really feel.

[Skittles]

12. hey Danieljay

welcome to the DU. :hi:

[Danieljay]

18. thank you! n/t

[leftofthedial]

13. oh joy! only another third of a million new unemployed people!

let's see add them to the official unemployed, those who have fallen off the list, and those who are grossly UNDERemployed, and unemplyment under our dictator is only about 13%.

[underpants]

14. Yeah that hit me a while after I posted this

~330,000 people filed for the first time in ONE WEEK

In a week that many people?

[tom_paine]

16. How does that compare to filings during the Clinton Boom?

Of course, one of the primary mission of Corporate Pravda is to delete the knowledge of history.

Because we've ALWAYS been at war with Eastasia, don'tcha' know?

[underpants]

17. I don't know but that is a LOT of people

in one week.

[Frodo]

19. The good weeks were often in the 250k range.

300k was not uncommon.

[underpants]

20. A chart

[Frodo]

23. Good chart... but

(s)he was asking for comparable figures from the Clinton boom years.

I pulled up a couple from '98-'99 and found most a tad under 300k.

[san antonio]

24. They were

Most of them during the 90's during Clintons term were just around and under 300k. The started going up his last year in office at the same time as the tech bust.

[Frodo]

21. No need to exagerate

Your figure is 9.7%, not 13%. That's the "official unemployed" plus the "underemployed" plus "those who have fallen off the list" (presumably those who have stopped looking for a job - anyone without a job who IS looking for a job does not "fall off the list")

And that 1/3 million new unemployed is supposed to be offset by the newly EMployed. Which figure is supposed to be around 400k/wk and is why any number under 400k is assumed to be a "stable" or "improving" unemployment picture.

[san antonio]

22. Why the negativity?

This is one thing I've never understood about this site? Isn't this good information for the nation?

[Frodo]

25. Don't play here often?

Welcome to DU.

OF COURSE it's "good news for the nation". And NOBODY here is hoping for bad news. We're merely forming political strategy, and in THAT context, things that make Bush look good (even if he has nothing to do with them) make our job tougher. We may be "surprised" the numbers are good, but that's not the same thing.

So nobody here is hoping that 500k get laid off next month so that Bush can be beaten... but if it happens, understand that the focus will be more on politics, less on the individuals.


We'd all LOVE to see 6% growth and 2% unemployment AND shrub out of office.

[Kathy in Cambridge]

26. Not negativity-reality, pal

do you believe everything the White House spins?

[Danieljay]

29. Figures lie, and liars figure....

If you think this is good news, Drive up to Wichita Kansas San Antonio. Ask the aircraft workers there who no longer qualify for benefits, cant find jobs, and are foreclosing on their homes if they "feel" this good news. Personally I think its a manipulation of numbers for political gain. Raytheon in Wichita just laid off an additional number of workers prior to Christmas, and those other thousands of aircraft workers in Wichita are out of benefits. A friend of mine called recently and is closing her health food store for lack of business and said the economy there is getting worse. Personally I'm glad to be out of that industry (and that city), was laid off last June and moved to Portland to work on a Masters of Divinity. I was just notified this morning I no longer qualify for unemployment benefits. There are no good jobs in Wichita, aircraft doesn't seem to be rehiring, and the economy here in Portland isn't much better though I can think of no other place I'd rather live. Personally, I don't give much credence to what the media tells me about the economy OR terrorism... but I've got years of experience and a good college education behind me to help me through. There are many out there that dont have that. Bad news for me today personally, though I can't WAIT see the good thats going to come from this.

[Kathy in Cambridge]

30. Thanks for an excellent post, DanielJay!

and welcome to DU!

:hi:

[Danieljay]

27. total irony..I was just notified

10 minutes ago.... That my benefits won't be extended. My unemployment is up. 5 months, I've been dropped from the benefits and do not qualify again. I'm one of those who just disappear off the roles. I know I'm supported by Spirit and will find a way, but talk about hitting home.

I worked for 15 years in the aircraft industry in Kansas as a production manager, and was laid off last June. I sold my home and moved to Portland and currently attend school. I'm sure I can find some part time work to get me by and pay my bills without quitting school. Here's the deal, according to the unemployment office..if I had run out of benefits prior to Dec. 20th, I would have qualified. I just ran out last week so I didn't qualify. I have a little to fall back on in the mean time and am more concerned about those that have already used up their savings. Sad.

Life goes on...and I'll somehow be supported. That being said, I'm now one of those who disappears off the roles, and helps Bush and Co. claim the economy is improving with fewer unemployment claims.

[underpants]

28. Damn that sucks

This was the unempyment INSURANCE that you paid into all those years right? INSURANCE usually means you pay for it hoping you won't have to use but if you do it is available....that is how insurance usually works.

Sorry to hear that.

[Rex]

31. We've been in an 'economic recovery' for 3 years now

I've never seen the media so controlled like they are now.

Sit, stay, roll over, play dead...good boy!

[area51]

36. "economic recovery"

Rex said:

"We've been in an 'economic recovery' for 3 years now.
I've never seen the media so controlled like they are now."

I'm glad he brought this up, as it's insane how the republinazi media keeps trumpeting how we're in "recovery", yet there's virtually no new job creation. And the rt-wing media keeps bleating, "but Bush said that things are better now", & obviously that means they think they can stop talking about us "scummy" unemployed people. Ignoring the unemployment problem is going to get Shrub fired just like his dad.

[wildwww2]

37. We are in a Bu$h Inc. media spun "Fuzzy Recovery" the economy

however will continue to decline in this country. But the Bu$hevic`s and their ilk will continue to prosper. While more middle class people take to the streets to live. Hope some of them have a SUV thats paid for. Then at least they will have a place to sleep.
Peace
Wildman
Al Gore is My President

[TankLV]

32. "lowest in (bunkerboy's) term" - wow - that certainly is "good news"

Of course, not "lowest ever", or "lowest in 10 years", etc.

And empoyment is at it's highest since 2pm Tuesday! Woopie!

Gotta love the whores and their spin.

Disgusting.

Notice how they never talked about bunkerboy's polls whenever he's tanking? Another amazing cooincidence!

[tabasco]

33. The name "bunkerboy" is totally appropriate

That's where our "leader" was on 9-11 !

[fabius]

34. Adjusted versus unadjusted?

Seeing the Forest reports the difference between "seasonally adjusted" and the raw, unadjusted numbers.

adjusted = 339,000

unadjusted = over 500,000

http://seetheforest.blogspot.com/2003_12_01_seetheforest_archive.html#107288203324401602


:wtf:

Anybody know what this means? I don't.

Unless they're being "adjusted" by KKKarl.

[Woodstock]

35. OK, here are three articles that counter that

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A41377-2003Dec30.html

http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20040105&s=krugman

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-jobs29dec29,1,6261515.story?coll=la-home-headlines

I love the line from the first one:

That sentiment may reflect a disconnect that Americans feel between the upbeat economic numbers trumpeted in the press and their own experiences, Bernstein said.